After the weekend’s events I’d say the best 2 eyecatching performances came from Big Bucks and Hurricane Fly.

But as that would be, to quote Basil Fawlty, ‘a statement of the bleedin’ obvious’ I’ve dug a little deeper to come up with these three….

LITTLE JOSH: I think Nigel Twiston-Davies has finally realised that Little Josh does not stay 3 miles after yet again failing to see out that trip in Saturday’s Argento Chase. He had jumped beautifully at his beloved Cheltenham and at the top of the home straight was going as well as anything in the race but once again his stamina gave out on him and he slowed very markedly from the 3rd last fence. The way he was going at the top of the course you would have bet money on him being in the shake-up so to finish 44 lengths back in 6th was a bitter disappointment. I’ll wait for him to step back to around 2m4f and hopefully that will be at Cheltenham as he really does go well there. He is entered for the Ryanair chase for which he is quoted at 25/1. I might be tempted to have a little each way if, and when, the bookies go NR-No Bet.

THE GIANT BOLSTER: He’s had his problems in the past with his jumping but David Bridgewater seems to have sorted those out and he now has developed into a very smart chaser. His 17 length demolition of a quality field of handicappers on Saturday showed him to be in great form and a horse to keep an eye on over the coming months. He is entered in the Gold Cup but I think that may be a little ambitious and a more suitable immediate target could be the Racing Post Chase at Kempton at the end of February. It’s not a race many winners of Saturday’s race head for next, with most waiting for the Festival, but of the three that have tried to do the double, two were successful. I’m not sure of the trainers plans but I would certainly be interested in this ones chances if he were to line up.

SIVOLA DE SIVOLA: Racing over a trip a lot shorter than ideal he stayed on very nicely up the hill to finish 4th to stablemate Module in the concluding handicap at Cheltenham. As most of his racing has been done over 2m4f+ it was a little strange to see him line up for this 2m1f race and one can only assume that the trainer was keeping him ticking over with the Festival in mind. It therefore came as no great shock to see Tom George nominate the Pertemps final as his seasonal objective in the post race interviews for which he now heads the betting at 10/1. With form between him and Spirit Son (2 1/2 length 2nd to that one), Fingal Bay (5th beaten 13 lengths) and a win in a Pertemps qualifier by 5 lengths he certainly looks well capable of a bold show in the Final.

Today’s horses have been added to the list of horses to follow which can be accessed from the menu on the left hand side of the screen.

And finally……

Despite getting beat and the entire staff of Racing Post race readers dismissing his chance for Cheltenham I thought Broadback Bob ran okay on Saturday and if Henderson takes the easier 3 mile Albert Bartlett option with him (as opposed to the NIM Hurdle) I can see him running very well. As the season progresses I think trying to give 7lb to Batonnier and being beaten 3 lengths may well prove to be seen as a good effort.

————–

FESTIVAL TRENDS BOOK RELEASE

Exciting times here at Festival Trends with my book coming back from the publishers tomorrow. It probably (well definitely) won’t make the Times bestselling list and I doubt I’ll be doing a book signing down the local Waterstones but I’m really looking forward to seeing my name on a book. The first run is sold out bar a couple of copies so there’s another lot being done ready for next week.

If you fancy buying a copy it’s just £14.95 (including P&P) and covers 30 races this year. It’s called “Betting Trends: The Top 30 Trends races for 2012″ and that pretty much tells you all you need to know. The races covered are ones we’ve had the most success in over the last 3 years and they include amongst others; the Irish National (33/1 and 25/1 winners), John Smiths Cup (16/1 and 5/1), Chester Cup (last 2 winners) and the St James Palace Stakes (last 3 winners). It’s 60 pages of stats, trends and the usual helpful race pointers.

You can get your copy here http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

I’m also just finishing up the first of our Cheltenham Festival ante-post guides which will be available sometime on Wednesday. In last years guide we had a mixed bag of results, and more drama than a Dick Francis novel, but still ended up nicely in front thanks to our 7/1 tip Long Run winning the Gold Cup. Our 14/1 Arkle recommendation went off as the 11/4 favourite but could only finish 4th. Our Champion Hurdle tip didn’t make the line-up due to some mix up with his medication and our totesport hurdle runner avoided being electrocuted at Newbury but by the time he ran in the re-scheduled race the going had gone against him. He ran very well in 5th and showed his true form later in the Season when running away with the Swinton Hurdle by 13 lengths (20/1 into 15/2). As I said, a mixed bag of results with plenty of drama!

As with last year I’ve covered the Betfair Hurdle (old Totesport) and three from the Cheltenham Festival. I’ll also be placing a £10ew Lucky 15 on the four and splitting any winnings between all Early Bird Year Ticket subscribers (by 1st March).

Subscriptions are available from http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

Argento Chase

Despite being a Grade 2 Chase run over 3m1f at Cheltenham around 7 weeks before the Festival the Argento Chase, apart from the 2007 winner Exotic Dancer, has been about as informative a trial for the Gold Cup as the 4yo hurdle race run on the same card. The list of winners since Jonjo’s star took the 2007 race include some decent chasers but none of them have exactly gone on to greater things.

The 2008 winner Knowhere went to the Gold Cup but was a very well beaten 6th (48 lengths) behind Denman and spent the rest of his career running in top handicap company. Joe Lively won the following year but never got near to winning another race for the rest of his career which ended with him being fatally injured in Class 2 handicap company on New Years Day 2011. In 2010 the 9yo Taranis caused a bit of a shock when winning from Carruthers but he’d had his training problems in the Season before and this now fragile horse has only run twice since (7th and fell) neither of which was in the Gold Cup. Last years winner Neptune Collonges was 10yo at the time and although he ran in the Gold Cup on his next outing was well down the field and finished 8th of the 13 runners. He’s since been campaigned in handicap company and was beaten in a class 2 race on his last start.

However, this year we may actually get a winner who does go on to lay down a challenge in March as there are a couple of younger chasers in the field who look ready to step up on their previous form. First up is last years Hennessy winner Diamond Harry who has only had the one run since, when 4th behind Kauto Star in the Betfair Bowl at Haydock. He jumped very well that day but paid the price for going toe-to-toe with the rejuvenated Kauto Star for the middle part of the race.  He was finally beaten 18 lengths in the race but on his first run for over a year it has to go down as a very decent performance. Time For Rupert was top class over hurdles and chased home Big Bucks in the World Hurdle 2 years ago. Despite winning his first two chases in fine style he has yet to transfer his hurdles form to the fences and was a well beaten favourite in last years RSA Chase at the Festival where he never seemed to be travelling. It’s taken a while for him to find his feet this year and after finishing 2nd in the Charlie Hall and a well beaten 5th in the Betfair Bowl (7 lengths adrift of Diamond Harry) he finally won on his third start in what looked on paper a fairly easy task for him. He’s a multiple course winner and he stays all day but he’ll have to improve again to win this. That’s certainly not out of the question for this 8yo with only 6 chase runs under his belt. The third of the younger chasers is Captain Chris who won both the Arkle and the Grade 1 novice at the Punchestown Festival and is a very consistent horse who has finished in the top 2 on 10 of his 13 runs. He was unlucky not to win the Haldon Cup on his seasonal debut when falling at the last with the race his for the taking and then was stepped up in trip for the King George. He did very well to finish 3rd that day but didn’t really convince with his stamina and todays 3m1f around Cheltenham is going to push his stamina to the maximum. If he is to be considered a Gold Cup horse he’s going to have to win today but I just can’t see him making it up that hill after running flat out for 3 miles.

There are a couple of older horses who could make a race of it with the younsters and with previous winners of this race including a 10yo and 11yo they must be given a chance. Midnight Chase ran 5th in last years Gold Cup after graduating from handicap company and began his season falling in a Grade 1 at Down Royal when looking held in 4th. He then went back into handicap company on Boxing Day at Wetherby where he finished a creditable 3rd off top weight (gave winner According to Pete over 2 stone). That looked a step back to form and this front runner cannot be dismissed lightly especially as he has a lot of form over both the distance and the course. Another golden oldie is the totally frustrating Tidal Bay who is now an 11yo. Throughout his career he has always seemed to get going too late and that was really evident in his last few runs for Howard Johnson last Season including in this race and the Gold Cup. He’s had a spin over hurdles for his new trainer and it will be interesting to see if Ruby Walsh can keep the horse in touch with the field for the race and use his finishing kick to full affect.

Little Josh is another front runner and has won over the course but he has stamina and class doubts and would be an unlikely winner. That can also apply to both Any Currency and The Sawyer who would have to find massive improvement from somewhere to get competitive. Knockara Beau has run well at the course before and finished 4th in the RSA Chase in 2010 but he’s not come close to matching that form since over hurdles or fences.

For me it’s between Diamond Harry and Midnight Chase with slight preference for Diamond Harry.

This gives me a nice looking Patent (7 bets) for today of:

Baby Mix 12.55
Broadback Bob 3.10
Diamond Harry 2.35

—————

2012 Trends

Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.

If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!

The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……

>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<

This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!

It is absolutely 100% FREE with no catch whatsoever.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Neptune Investment Novice Hurdle

The second race from the weekends card that I’m going to take a look at is the 3.10 at Cheltenham which over the last 5 years has proved quite a good guide to the longer distance novice hurdles run at the Festival.

The 2007 winner Witchita Linesman won both here and at the Festival when he took the 3m Novice by an impressive 12 lengths as the 11/8 favourite. In 2008 the winner was Aigle D’or from the Nicky Henderson stable but he was unable to run his race at the Festival and was last of the 13 finishers as the 4/1 favourite in the 2m 4 1/2f Novice. Diamond Harry won in 2009 before running a very creditable 3rd to Mikael D’Haguenet in the 2m5f Novice. In 2010 it was the turn of another Harry, Restless Harry, to win here before trying to win the newly sponsored Albert Bartlett 3m Novice at the Festival. He went off at 8/1 and after leading for most of the way was narrowly headed at the last when he came a cropper. This left Berties Dream to come home as a 33/1 shock winner. Last years classy winner Bobs Worth made no such mistakes and did the double by winning here and in the Albert Bartlett as the 15/8 favourite.

So what of this years runners?

Well, if the bookies ante-post betting is any guide it looks as if the winner is going to have to put up a really decent performance tomorrow if he is to make any impression at the Festival. The shortest priced runner for the NIM Novice Hurdle in March is the Nicky Henderson trained Broadback Bob who is a general 16/1 -20/1 chance at the moment. Knights Pass also gets a quote for that race but is considered an outsider at this stage with odds of around 33/1 - 50/1.

And on all known form so far it’s Broadback Bob who looks the likeliest to put up the kind of performance needed to book his place at the Festival. This former PTP horse ran a fine 6th in the Grade 2 NH flat race at the Aintree festival where he stayed on late and looked as if a longer trip was very much needed. So it was a bit surprising to see him start off in a 2 mile novice at Ascot for his hurdling debut where he needed every yard to catch the decent Cinders And Ashes (won 3 times since) and win by a length. He finally got his chance to run at an extended trip next time out when he ran out a convincing winner of a 2m3f Novice Hurdle at Newbury. This looked an excellent performance as the favourite in this race (who he was giving 7lb) was the Paul Nicholls trained Polisky who had on his previous run been beaten 5 lengths by Fingal Bay. Even allowing for there being something wrong with the favourite that day it’s difficult to see him reversing form tomorrow.

Knights Pass began his career by taking two NH Flat races in such eye catching style that he went off as a 7/1 shot in the Cheltenham Bumper last year. Unfortunately he never got into contention and finished 19th of the 24 runners, beaten over 50 lengths. His hurdling career began at Exeter where he won an average looking novice in fairly decent style. The penalty he received for that win seemed to anchor him next time out when the Henderson trained Tetlami (winner since) and Nicholls trained Black Thunder (winner since) took  the weight advantage and beat him 5 lengths and 2 lengths into third. His trainer then made the decision to run him in a handicap on his next start which turned out to be the right thing to do as he won a Class 3 at Kempton by a couple of lengths. He took that race off a rating of 125 and has since gone up 10lbs.

Alan King’s 4yo Secret Edge is an interesting runner as he gets plenty of weight from the others and has Grade 1 and 2 form in juvenile hurdle races. It’s difficult to equate his form to the older runners but the distance will suit and he has run 3rd to Hinterland (beaten 10 lengths) over this course. He wouldn’t be one of the very best juvenile hurdlers around though and overall I think he’s worth taking on.

Forgotten Gold ran a good race under a penalty last time out when finishing 3rd to Barbatos (ran 5th in this race last year) who had twice been put in his place by Fingal Bay since winning at Aintree. He looks up against it once more but may take one of the placings. Alan Kings frustrating Battonier took second in that race to go with his 3rd at Ascot and 2nd at Southwell. He may struggle to make the frame this time though. Hard To Swallow was back in 4th and has yet to look convincing over hurdles. This winning pointer looked very good when winning a Ffos Las NH flat race but was well beaten at odds on for his hurdling debut and then fell behind Fingal Bay in a Grade 2 at Chepstow. He will need to recapture his old form to get competitive here. John Quinn’s Hawk Mountain was a 90 rated flat horse who recorded a good win on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield. He was another horse to struggle with his penalty next time out when finding having to give 7lb to another fairly decent flat horse and promising hurdler Crackentorp too much. He gets 3lb this time from Broadback Bob and may give him most to do.

In summary, I’d imagine he’s going to be a shortish price tomorrow but it’s difficult to see past Broadback Bob winning this. Odds of around 20/1 (Ladbrokes and Hills) look quite tempting for the NIM Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival and I’ll be backing him each way for that race.

 —————

2012 Trends

Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.

If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!

The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……

>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<

This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!
It is absolutely 100% FREE with no catch whatsoever.

Good luck,
Gavin.

For the rest of the weeks posts I’m going to take a look at the Cheltenham Festival with one eye on this weekends cards and the other on the ante-post markets which are sure to be shaken up come 5pm Sunday.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

Saturday’s Cheltenham card starts off with a trial for the Triumph Hurdle and with the top 3 in the ante-post markets all set to run it’s bound to have a big impact on the betting for the Festival. Baby Mix, Sadlers Risk and Grumeti currently sit atop of the betting at around 8/1.

I was at Cheltenham when Baby Mix made his British debut and was extremely impressed with the way he won his race. He travelled very well and quickened very nicely to beat the more experienced and, at the time, unbeaten favourite Hinterland. However, as is usually the case in racing, it’s not quite as simple as that as Hinterland was shouldering a penalty for his previous wins and gave Baby Mix 7lb in weight. As he was beaten 7 lengths into second at 1lb per length (the usual weight/length ratio for NH racing) it ought to be really close at the level weights they will race off at Cheltenham on Saturday and in the Triumph. Hence the bookies are taking no chances with the Nicholl’s horse and have him just behind the market leaders on 14/1. Personally, the way Baby Mix swept by the field and the manner of his win I think he will again finish in front of Hinterland and he is a worthy favourite for March.

Sadlers Risk was a pretty decent flat horse for Mark Johnston (rated as high as 100 last summer) and on his hurdling debut he transferred his talents to the jumping game when winning an ordinary looking Kempton novice (2nd favourite ran as if something amiss) by an eased down 17 lengths. Obviously he can only beat those that turn up and he did win as he liked but Saturday’s race will be more of a challenge and should give us a better idea of how good he is. Current odds of 8/1 look a little skinny at present and I’d rather wait until after Saturday before backing this one for the Triumph.

The other one vying for favouritism is Grumeti who saw his price contract for the Triumph despite falling in his last race. He began his hurdling career making full use of the 13lb weight for age advantage when defeating the Paul Nicholls trained 4yo Ted Spread, who was a pretty decent flat horse who actually ran in Workforce’s Derby. That was a 14 length victory and was visually very impressive. On his second run he went to Newbury and was well on his way to another easy win when coming down at the 2nd last. At the time he had a couple of decent flat recruits toiling in his wake and as long as he suffers no ill affects from that fall will be a major player on Saturday. His trainer Alan King has a good record in the Triumph and this one looks his number one candidate at the moment.

I say at the moment because the last 2 Triumph Hurdle winners hadn’t even set foot on a British racecourse at this stage of the Season. They both made their debut in this country at the Kempton meeting held at the end of February and under 3 weeks before the Festival itself. That’s worth bearing in mind before plunging on Saturday’s winner for the Triumph. One such horse that has yet to run over hurdles and features prominently in the betting is the Dessie Hughes trained Minsk. The trainer has made no secret of just how highly he rates this high class ex John Oxx trained horse (won Irish Cesarewitch by 5 1/2 lengths) and with his first run likely to come in a Grade 1 race at Leopardstown in February I think we can assume he’ll know what jumping is all about by then. Even so, odds of around 10/1 look a little tight given the form of some of those that have already run over obstacles.

I’m going to throw in another horse who is unraced over hurdles and who isn’t quoted in any betting lists for the Triumph Hurdle. The horse in  question cost 120,000 euros after he won a 3yo NH flat race in France last May despite starting slowly. That day he beat Ut De Sivola quite comfortably and that one has since joined Willie Mullins and is unbeaten in two starts. On the back of those two wins he’s a general 14/1 shot for the Triumph and he’s the shortest priced runner from the Mullins stable. On that form line I reckon his French compatriot Utopian, who is now stabled with Nick Gifford, may be worth a very small each way wager if we can get some 66/1 or even 100/1 for the Triumph.

Other runners declared for Saturday’s opener include the Donald McCain Hollow Tree who has won 3 of his 4 starts over hurdles. His only defeat came at the hands of Hinterland at  Cheltenham when he could never quite match the finishing speed of the winner despite receiving 4lb from him. He has since gone on to take the Grade 1 Future Champions Hurdle at Chepstow in heavy ground which looked a good race despite the desperate conditions. The horse he beat that day Countrywide Flame clouted the last hurdle and would have got closer than the 2 1/2 lengths he got beat without that mistake. He’d been mopping up a lot of Summer / early Autumn novice hurdle races in easy fashion and although he may find the Triumph Hurdle a little hot could be just the sort for the 4yo Handicap at the Festival.

The last horse I’m going to have a look at has been largely forgotten about as he has not raced since the end of November when he won a Newbury juvenile hurdle by 10 lengths in comfortable fashion from the Paul Nicholls trained Ranjaan, who himself has won his last 2 races and is a general 12/1 shot for the Triumph. Don’t let Urbain De Sivola’s form figures put you off (U31) as he didn’t look a natural over hurdles to begin with and his first run saw him try to refuse and unseat his rider at the first flight. His second start saw him run from the front and still hold an advantage at the last before he sprawled on landing and lost all momentum. It was case of third time lucky for him though as he finally got his act together with his Newbury win and the way he defeated Ranjaan marks him down as a top class recruit to hurdling. It’s a bit worrying that we haven’t seen him since, as he was an intended runner in the Chepstow Future Champions race, but should we see him again before Cheltenham his current odds of 20/1 (Ladbrokes) may be worth noting.

As long as the Cheltenham race doesn’t cut up too badly and the big names stand their ground we should have a clearer idea about who will win the Triumph Hurdle at around 1pm on Saturday but at this stage I’m going to send a few emails out and see if I can get a fancy price for Utopian for the Triumph. I’ll let you know how I get on.

———–

2012 Trends

Saturday’s card from Cheltenham sees the start of the trends guides for 2012 as we focus on the Murphy Group Handicap Chase. The guide for this will be available from around 2pm Friday to all subscribers. From there we head to Newbury for the Betfred Hurdle (the old Totesport hurdle or The Schweppes for those with longer memories) followed by Kempton for the Racing Post Chase and Sandown for the Imperial Cup. This takes us nicely onto the Cheltenham Festival and the start of the flat Season at Doncaster.

If you haven’t got your subscription sorted out for 2012 yet then there’s no time like the present. There are a few Membership options available at the moment and I’ve heavily discounted the Year Ticket for 2012 which comes with a few extras too.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Included in those membership options is the chance to purchase my soon to be published Book: The 30 Top Trends Races for 2012. It’s out on the 1st February and as its title suggests it covers 30 races due to be run throughout 2012, all of which have proved very profitable trends races over the last few years. The first race covered is the Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham so you’ll receive your copy well before the book goes out of date!

The book is just £14.95 and this includes P&P. If you want to see the layout for book and how each race will look then click below for an example (it’s for the Murphy Group Chase on Saturday)……

>>>>FREE TRENDS BOOK EXAMPLE<<<<

This is a one click, direct link and absolutely no details will be asked for. No email addresses, no credit card details, no name, nothing!
It is absolutely 100% FREE with no catch whatsoever.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I closed the shop down on Sunday and finished up the paperwork yesterday meaning I am now officially unemployed. So it’s back to writing the blog, doing the trends, betting on the horses and playing poker. Beats work any day!

The last week was a little quiet in the shop so I left my dad in charge most of the time and spent my afternoons in Ladbrokes getting back into the racing. There were a few horses I backed that looked worthy of a mention and I thought that a new weekly feature highlighting these runners might be a nice way to restart the blog. So, every Monday I’ll try and take a few horses that ran well the previous week, winners and losers, with a brief write-up as to why I think they might be worth following. I’ve added a page, called Weekly Eyecatchers, to the menu to the left which is where I’ll list the horses highlighted during this feature. Here are a few to start things off………

MAISON BRILLET carried top-weight in a class 6 long distance race at Lingfield last Friday and did everything right until getting nailed right on the line. After launching his challenge to the leader at the 3f marker he eventually wore him down passing the furlong pole but had nothing left to give when the eventual winner found a little extra close home. He has form at Lingfield, Wolverhampton and Kempton and compensation awaits in a similar level of contest.

SMAD PLACE was a smart juvenile hurdler last season and finished his season being beaten around 11 lengths in the Triumph Hurdle. The form of that race keeps getting better with the 2nd, Unaccompanied, and 3rd, Grandouet, and 9th home, Brampour, all proving themselves decent horses this Season. To that list of winners we can now add Smad Place who took apart a decent looking field to take the Grade 2 handicap at Ascot on Saturday. That win was over 2m4f and these longer trips look to be where his future lies. His only entry at the moment is for the World Hurdle at the Festival and although he’ll have his work cut out to topple Big Bucks there aren’t too many great stayers around at the moment and the 50/1 on offer looks massive. Get on! He goes to Fontwell next for the National Spirit Hurdle before his date with Big Bucks.

NOLAND is an 11yo now but on the evidence of his run on Saturday looks to have at least one more decent race left in him. After running fairly well in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase over Christmas he was asked to lump top weight in a very decent class 2 handicap chase at Ascot and was in the process of running a big race when a blunder 3 out stopped him in his tracks. If he hasn’t done himself any harm I would imagine he’ll go to Newbury to defend his crown in the Aon Chase. If any of the big names turn up he’ll probably struggle but if it ends up with being contested by the 2nd tier chasers he could be the value in a race he’s won before. 

I’M SO LUCKY was never going to win the Victor Chandler Chase and his odds of 66/1 were a little on the short side but he ran a race of tremendous promise for when his trainer decides to drop him in class. These 2 mile Grade 1 chases are never going to go his way but I smell a good old fashioned Pipe stable plot with this one and if the handicapper relents a little from his 150 rating then I reckon we’ll see him appear at Cheltenham for one of the handicap chases. The 2m5f Festival Plate is a race Martin Pipe used to farm at the Festival and as David Pipe won it a couple of years ago with Great Endeavour I reckon this is where he’ll be heading.

and finally there was a horse who won on Sunday at Kempton who really caught my eye. I didn’t back the winner as I was on the beaten favourite but I’m planning on getting my money back real quick. KAI MOOK won the Class 6 1m4f handicap very easily and is turned out again this afternoon for a slightly better contest at 5 o’clock. She has a 6lb penalty for that win but the trainer has offset that by using a 5lb claimer and if she is in the same form as Sunday she looks certain to go well. 9/4 looks too big.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I still have a few days left with the Calendar Club but will be back full time from next Monday when I’ll be outlining my plans for the blog and what you can expect in 2012. For all of you still not used to the present colour scheme you’ll be glad to know that these plans include having the nag-nag-nag site re-designed and reverting back to a white layout. But more news on that next week….

In the meantime I just wanted to mention that subscriptions are now being taken for the 2012 Festival Trends Guides. As the early months are a little quiet on the trends front the annual cost of subscription is available at the moment for just £99.95 (which is the same price as 2011.)

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

However this offer is only available until 1st March when the price will change to £149 and will remain at that price until June 2012. As with last year there will be well over 50 guides included in the membership and over 200 races covered. With the annual membership you get EVERY guide produced in 2012 and covers amongst many, many others;

The Cheltenham Festival, Aintree Grand National meeting, Chester in May, The Guineas, The Derby & Oaks, Royal Ascot, Newmarket July, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor, St Leger, Ascot Champions Day, The Arc, The Breeders, The Hennessey, Cheltenham Open meeting, The King George and Welsh National……… 

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

So why susbcribe now?

1) You save £50 by not waiting until March
2) I will make a £10ew Lucky 15 bet on our 4 ante-post selections from our pre-Cheltenham guide to be released in the 1st week of February. All members paid up by 28th February will have an equal share in any returns.
3) You will get a FREE copy of my forthcoming book ‘2012 Betting Trends: The top 30 trends races of 2012′ (please note this is NOT an E-book but a hard copy and will be sent to every subscriber)
4) The early bird price works out at less than 50p a race and represents an overall saving of well over £200 compared to buying each guide separately or subscribing monthly.
5) While we’re waiting for the trends season to kick off properly in March you can have free access to the TTS Selections for February.

Plus there will be trends guides for the Murphy Chase at Cheltenham at the end of January, The Betfred Hurdle (Newbury) and Racing Post Chase (Kempton) in February.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Or if an annual membership is still a little steep you can buy my new trends book for just £14.95 (incl. P&P). It covers the top 30 races run throughout 2012 from a trends point of view and is due out on February 1st. It will be posted to your home address in time for the Cheltenham Festival. More details about that tomorrow……

Good luck,
Gavin.

I have just a week left before I join the ranks of the unemployed and can get back to having a lie in, watching the racing and playing poker every night. Ooooooo I can’t wait.

So what’s been happening while I’ve been away? Well, I managed to sell around 40,000 calendars in a little under 4 months, I’ve had two days off (one to go racing at Cheltenham and Christmas Day) since September 25th and must have walked in excess of 1000 miles carrying 1276 heavy boxes of calendars. I reckon I’ve eaten 100 Greggs steak bakes, drank 200 cans of coke, had 100 Krispy Kreme donuts and 50 BB’s muffins yet still managed to lose a stone in weight and 2 inches off my waist! The Calendar Club diet beats Weightwatchers every time. You can eat whatever you like and still shed the pounds!

Inter Penarth haven’t played very many games due to the weather but Dylan has kept up his record of scoring in every game he’s played and now has 24 goals in 9 games. He’s set himself a target of 50 goals for the year and really wants the Golden Boot awarded at the end of the season to the clubs top scorer. As he has scored more goals than the rest of the team put together he’s well on target to do that……..

So what of the racing?

From what little Ive seen it seems to have been all about Kauto Star so far this Season. He raised the roof when beating Long Run at Haydock, brought the house down when confirming form over that rival at Kempton in the King George and goes to the Gold Cup with the Cheltenham executives hoping he makes it 3 from 3 there. If he brings the stand down there it will save them thousands in demolition costs when they get around to re-developing the track. Another Nicholls favourite Big Bucks has brushed aside all comers in the stayers division with ease and looks a penalty kick for the World Hurdle at Cheltenham. Just hope Jermaine Defoe isn’t taking it. Carruthers came back to form to win the Hennessey, Synchronised showed improved form to win the Lexus Chase, Quantitaveeasing held his form to finish 2nd and first in the two big chases at Cheltenham, Binocular reversed form with Overturn in the Christmas Hurdle to put himself back in the Champion Hurdle picture and Prospect Wells lost his form and heads to Cheltenham with his reputation shattered. With so many good horses taking to fences this year the Arkle and RSA Chase look set to be the races of the meeting with some connections now thinking the Queen Mother / Gold Cup could be the easier options. Sam Waley-Cohen keeps picking up bans and Long Run supporters are praying this continues long enough for him to be banned for the Gold Cup. Tony McCoy got injured at Taunton at the end of last year and despite his best efforts to ride the following day will be out of action until at least the end of the month. For him to be out that long it must be really serious, maybe his arm or leg fell off. Le Beau Bai ground out the Welsh National in an absolute bog with the final furlong being run in slow motion. Chepstow have failed to race since as they still await the last few horses to finish the race. The Winter weather continues to be favourable with few meetings being abandoned although snow would have been most welcome last weekend when the terrible racing that was on offer deserved to be called off. Which brings us right up to date with  todays Lanzarote Hurdle.

2.50 Kempton American Trilogy

I like the look of Paul Nicholls’ runner American Trilogy here on his return to hurdling. The last time we saw him on this sort of mark in a hurdle race he won the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival by 11 lengths. He’s spent a couple of seasons chasing but has never managed to show the same form over fences as he did over the smaller obstacles. It’s taken Nicholls a while to realise that he’s not going to make it as a chaser and now he’s back over his preferred discipline I’m sure we’re going to see a different horse today. The 33/1 with Paddy Power looks too big to me.

12.50 Warwick Up To The Mark

Henry Daly’s runner should find today’s race a lot easier than his two previous starts where he has run with great credit at Cheltenham. Both times he tried to lead all the way but weakened on the run-in and I’m sure he’ll find Warwick more suitable for those tactics in this lower grade race.

I’d like to thank Gary for doing such a great job with the tipping while I’ve been away. He’s had a helluva lot of big priced horses get placed with enough winners to show a very healthy profit since October. This was despite suffering a lot of bad luck with plenty of horses trading at very short odds but managing to get beat (although he got a lot of that back when backing Plum Pudding at 20/1 a couple of weekends ago which has to be the luckiest winner of the Season). It’s a shame he finished on such a low with last weekends tips but I’m sure he’ll carry on giving his advice throughout the year and the next 20/1 winner is just around the corner. TTS finished 2011 with an amazing run of winners at some very decent prices which ensured we went into 2012 in front and well on target to make it our 6th consecutive winning Season. The trends haven’t been quite so good and the 4 guides we have done so far this jumps Season have yet to find a winner (though we did get the 3rd in the Welsh National at 25/1). But the Season hasn’t really started for the trends yet and we have plenty of time to put that right. On the subject, I have some exciting news regarding the service which I’ll reveal on Monday.

In fact he tells me he fancies two today which are………..

3.20 Kempton SAFARI JOURNEY 22/1 Corals: last twice the 3 mile trip has been too far, this drop down to 2m41/2f is ideal, has also dropped down to last winning mark, where he won a very competitive handicap at Ascot by 15lengths.

3.40 Warwick BLAZING BAILEY 9/1 Corals, WH and others: was a disappointment in the Welsh National, but I think that was predominantly down to the ground being too heavy. This better surface will see a different horse and with Alan King winning the last 2 runnings of this race, I’m very confident of a big run and I would be having my maximum 5pt ew bet on him.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Hi All,

we followed up last Saturday’s lucky winner with more success on Sunday at Cheltenham where we had 8/1 winner Calgary Bay and over at Musselburgh we sneaked a place with 20/1 shot Riguez Dancer. That good start to 2012 means we now stand at +74.75pts. My luck continued into Monday when I had a 10/1 winner and Tuesday a 14/1 winner from only a couple of selections on each day(you can read all about them on the comments from the previous blog). So as we go into the weekend the confidence is sky high…..

BEAR DANCING 1.25 Newcastle 10/1 BET365: been disappointing so far this season but won his only career race over CD and with this jockey, didn’t stay the 4miles on seasonal debut or the 3m6 last time out so a much better showing is expected.

DARCEYS DANCER 2.05 Sandown 16/1 WH: Fell last time out but previous runs were pretty good and his novice form from Ireland gives him a good chance of his current mark of 130.

ANY CURRENCY 3.10 Sandown 14/1 CORAL: was a bit disappointing in the Welsh National but this track and trip much more to his liking

CANTABILLY 3.25 Wincanton 20/1 BETFRED: have been following this one in his last 2 runs, ran very well at 100/1 at Taunton 2 runs ago when 7th and not beaten very far, then ran an excellent 2nd at 50/1 again back at Taunton last Friday

ALARAZI 3.45 Sandown 5/1 PP: ran a cracker in 3rd when we had him at Ascot in the Ladbroke Hurdle, won the Imperial Cup here over CD back in March, a big run is very much expected.

1PT EW on each of the first 4 runners and 2pt win on Alarazi

Good Luck
Gary