Unfortunately I started back at work last Sunday and will be tied up for most of the Winter now but Gary has offered to do a daily posting with a fancy or two which I hope will prove successful. I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the Arc but for now it’s over to Gary…..

Hi All,

These are my own selections and fancies and are not straight from the horses mouth or based on information overheard in the pub from the brother of the trainer’s assistant’s, barber. If you’ve seen my tips on the blog before you’ll probably know that I do like to back outsiders and therefore have longer losing runs than most but when it does come right, the payoff is usually a big one!

As Gavin always says…. feel free to follow me or lay them or ignore them. I will be doing it every day for the next month to see how well (or badly!) things go and, more importantly, see what kind of response I get from all you blog readers.

Day 1 Saturday October 1st:
3.15 Ascot GENKI top priced 7/2 Ladbrokes,William Hill
3.50 Ascot PARISIAN PYRAMID e/w top priced 25/1 Ladbrokes

Good Luck to all who choose to follow me, I will hopefully have each days selection online by 10am.
Gary

I’ve just got back from watching Dylan play football and I can tell you, it’s wet out there! He was playing for the under-9’s this morning as they were short of a few players but he certainly didn’t look out of place against the older kids. They lost 2-0 but played very well and the future looks bright (unlike the weather) for Inter Penarth.

Onto today’s racing where I’m going for a massive pay-day. The 4 hardest races and 4 big outsiders to try my luck with……

4.40 Newmarket

I’ve been waiting all Summer for CAMEROONEY to run on Good to Firm or better ground and he finally gets those conditions today. On his last 7 runs on Good to Firm he’s finished 1111833 and at Newmarket his record is 5th of 35, 3rd of 30 and 3rd of 13. He’s plummeted through the weights and is now 10lb lower than when finishing 5th in last years Cambridgeshire! I really fancy him to run well today and the 28/1 on him is a real value bet. He’s my best bet (each way) of the day.

3.20 Ayr

While connections of that one are hoping the rain stays away up at Ayr the ground has come right for DUNGANNON who needs to get his toe in to show his best form. His last 3 handicap runs when the ground is riding Good to Soft have seen him finish 211. It’s a tough race but he must have a sporting chance of at least making the frame.

2.15 Ayr

In the Silver Cup I’m hoping that MASS RALLY can rediscover some of his old form now that he has been dropped in trip. He’s been campaigned mainly at 7f and a mile but last time out ran his best race for a long time when running over todays trip to finish 6th of 20 behind Internationaldebut. He’s another who has been dropping through the weights and today races off his lowest mark since November 2009.

3.05 Newbury

This race has been dominated by Luca Cumani in recent years and both his runners today (Naqshabaan and Kirthill) demand the utmost respect. However the trends pointed me in the direction of OCEANWAY who showed signs of coming back into form last Saturday after spending the Summer running dismally. The Johnston stable have been amongst the winners recently and I’m hopeful of a big run at a big price from this one.

As always do what you like with them: Back them, Lay them or Ignore them!

I’m backing them in each way singles and a small each way Lucky 15. If all 4 win my next post will be from the Wynn Casino in Las Vegas.

Time to drop Sam and Dylan off at the mother in laws and then I’m playing a 2-day poker tournament in Cardiff tonight.

Good luck,
Gavin.

“Good morning Mr Priestley”

“Your mission Gary should you choose to accept it is to find the winner of all 4 Sprints at Ayr over the next 2 days. As always, should any of your horses get beaten or run unplaced, the  blog writer will disavow any knowledge of your actions.”

 ”This blogpost will self distruct in 5 seconds………..”

Of course he accepted the mission and has assembled a team made up of the usual suspects, outsiders and dark horses. He doesn’t make it easy for himself backing these types of horses in massive field sprint handicaps but it generally works out for him over the course of a Season. That said, these races are some of the most competitive and hard to work out races of the year so be prepared for a mission failure.Good luck to Agent Gary and any brave souls who decide to follow him…….

3.20 AYR FRIDAY: A 5F cavalry charge to start the quartet of sprints where I’ve gone with a couple of old favourites of mine who have both been runing well recently. Indian Trail may be 11 years old now but he still runs with plenty of zest, he just requires the luck to fall his way. My main danger is Oldjoesaid who hasn’t won since Thirsk at the beginning of the season where he beat Indian Trail.

Selection: INDIAN TRAIL 16/1 General
Danger:    OLDJOESAID 25/1 William Hill

3.55 AYR FRIDAY: The Bronze cup is typically competitive handicap and I’m again siding with an 11 year old who needs things to go his own way. River Falcon has been a regular here over the years with varied success. He did however manage to get his head in front earlier in the season and ran well 2 weeks ago when running on late. My main danger is Safari Sunrise who comes here on the back of his best run of the season at York. A repeat of that should give him every chance of at least making the frame.

Selection: RIVER FALCON 25/1 Ladbrokes
Danger:    SUNRISE SAFARI 20/1 Corals,Skybet,VC

SILVER CUP SATURDAY: Quite a number of regulars here, but I’m going against them all with Gallagher who at 40/1 1/4 odds the first 5 places with Bet365 looks very generous. My main danger is a horse who won me a lot of races last season and has been running into form in some very good company this season. A repeat of his last run would see him go very lose here, he is Parisian Pyramid.

Selection: GALLAGHER 40/1 Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
Danger:    PARISIAN PYRAMID 11/1 Bet365 1/4 1-2-3-4-5

GOLD CUP SATURDAY: The main event, I know some of you have decided that Regal Parade has had enough chances this season, but I think the 25/1 available with Boylesport at 1/4 1st 5 places is stealing money from your bookie. A dual Group 1 winner running in a handicap, a race he won 3 years ago from a similar high draw on soft ground. Yes he is up in the ratings this time around, but then so is the quality of opposition so, the weight range is only 12lb from top to bottom. The main danger for me is Breathless Kiss who at 40/1 generally looks well over priced to me.

Selection: REGAL PARADE 25/1 BOYLESPORT 1/4 1-2-3-4-5
Danger:    BREATHLESS KISS 40/1 GENERALLY 1/4 1-2-3-4-5

Good luck,
Gavin.

After suffering heavy losses and a public humiliation with my tips on Thursday I took the decision to give the horses a break for a few days and swerve the rest of the Leger meeting. Boy, did that turn out to be a big mistake!

On the Friday our only TTS runner won at 7/1 (McVicar), the trends ratings gave 2 winners from 3 at odds of 10/3 and 9/1 (Requinto & Lyric of Light) and then to top it all off, Midsummer Sun finally ran in a race after being a non-runner on it’s last three intended starts and duly romped home at 7/4. If I thought it couldn’t get any worse I was wrong as on Saturday Monsieur Chevalier, Power, Duncan, Debussy, Man Of Action and Premio Loco were all winners that I’ve been following this Season. Onto Sunday and another sole TTS runner that won, 14/1 Freddy Q, old favourite Ramona Chase finally obliged again at 5/1 and then Prohibit (9/2) and Excelebration (11/8) did the business in France.

Obviously there would have been a few losers but I daren’t even imagine how much abstinence over those 3 days cost me. Things certainly haven’t been going my way since Glorious Goodwood.

I’m hoping that just like last year I can turn it around at the Ayr Gold Cup meeting. In what was probably our best ever 24 hours on the trends we gave both last years Silver and Gold Cup winners at odds of 33/1 and 14/1. I remember having a small Patent bet on the two with our runner in the big Dubai Duty Free handicap at Newbury which finished 3rd at 14/1. It’s hard to be upset when you’ve backed a 33/1 and 14/1 winner but certainly not impossible!

I can’t imagine we’ll be able to repeat those kind of results again this year but we’ll be giving it our best.

For those of you not subscribed to the trends. I’ll give you the chance to have the rest of the flat season and all the jumps guides until Jan 1st 2012 for just £10.

That will include: Ayr and Newbury this weekend, Ascot Champions Day, Redcar, Newmarket, Doncaster, Longchamp, The Breeders Cup, Wetherby, Cheltenham, Newbury, Kempton, Chepstow and many many more.

It’s a crazy offer that won’t last too long, so be quick…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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 The Arc

Anyway, enough of my woes. What clues can we take from the weekend’s Arc Trials?

Well, first of all it has to be said that apart from the fact they are run at Longchamp they bear no resemblance to the actual race in October at all. The trials are contested by small fields, the 3yo colts and fillies stay away from racing each other and the races themselves are run at a snails pace until the last 2 furlongs when they decide to sprint to the line which is the complete opposite of what we can expect in the Arc itself.

The 4 runner Prix Foy was won by Sarafina under hands and heels from the Japanese runner Hiruno D’Amour which prompted some bookmakers to make her the new Arc favourite. Do me a favour! She ran 3rd in the race last year when getting all the allowances going and in my opinion will struggle to make the frame this year. We now know that St Nicholas Abbey is not a Group 1 wonder horse and will not be winning the Arc. Last home Nakayama Festa is the interesting one here as he was having his first start since last November and ran very well for most of this race. He was the runner-up in the Arc last year after finishing 2nd to Duncan in this trial and obviously is being trained solely with the Arc in mind. 33/1 is an interesting price on this one.

Since 1999 Prix Foy winners have finished  2476907700 in the Arc.

The Prix Niel is the best indicator towards the Arc as it’s a race for 3yo’s and they have a fantastic record in the big race itself. Reliable Man exacted revenge on Meandre after that one had defeated him in the Grand Prix De Paris. With this comprehensive victory I think he proved that run in July to be all wrong and Reliable Man looks the best 3yo colt in France (now Pour Moi has been retired). Vadamar put his poor Epsom run behind him to come home in 3rd but even allowing for it being his first race since The Derby it’s difficult to see him reversing these places in October. Colombian ran another sound race in 4th but has now twice finished behind the winner while the 5th and 6th home (King of Arnor & Nakayama Knight) will need to improve a hell of a lot in the next 3 weeks to get competitive. The winner Reliable Man looks the one to take from this race and 8/1 each way looks a very solid bet.

Since 1999 Prix Niel winners have finished  11421011553 in the Arc

The going had changed to very soft by the time the Prix Vermielle was run and not surprisingly the time of Galikova’s win was by far the slowest of the three trials. It was perhaps the most visually impressive of the 3 although the form of the horses she beat didn’t amount to a great deal when compared to the other races. Her quotes of around 8/1 for the Arc wouldn’t interest me as a win proposition but getting the 3yo and filly allowances gives her excellent place possibilities.

 Since 1999 Prix Vermeille winners have finished 032615 in the Arc

For the record King George winners have finished: 94414, Irish Derby winners: 11301560 and Irish Champion Stakes winners: 93110

Workforce really messed up the trends last year thanks to his flop in the King George but here are some interesting Arc stats that remain intact…..

• 3 yo’s have won 14 of the last 17 renewals

• The last winning 6yo was in 1937

•  All of the last 12 winners had won a Group 1 race

•  2008 winner Zarkava was the first filly to win since 1993

• Only 1 frontrunner has made the frame in the last 12 years

• 28 of the last 36 win and placed horses were drawn 10 or lower

• All of the last 12 winners had run between 2-7 times that season

Which all seems to point to RELIABLE MAN being the best bet at this stage at around 8/1.

I’ve again had a couple of quid on the German horse Scalo at 1000/1 in the hope that his trainer will run him this year. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

———–

For those of you who like to follow the fortunes of Inter Penarth, they had their first game of the Season on Saturday and ran out convincing 2-1 winners. Dylan scored both Inter goals in the first half before taking his turn between the posts and keeping a clean sheet in the 2nd half.

——–

And finally….

Did anyone see the amazing story of Kathleen Kennet who got the hat-trick of wins up on Saturday? Here was an 11yo mare who has been racing without success in the lowest of grades since New Years Eve 2005. She’d run 36 times on turf, AW and over the jumps but all without success until the 31st August this year. She’d be running into form through August and finally broke her duck at Bath in a class 6 handicap from a rating of 47 by 4 1/2 lengths. Fast forward 10 days later and she’d got her hat-trick up winning her second race by 4 lengths and her 3rd by 10 lengths!! And all at Bath. The secret of her success? Apparently she’s in foal.

Which must be a horse thing because I don’t remember my missus getting the housework done any quicker when she was pregnant with Dylan….

JOKE!!!!

Good luck,
Gavin.

We made a small profit on our two runners yesterday with Indian Trail sneaking a place in the sprint handicap. Thanks Gary. Hopefully you managed to get the 20’s or bigger each way on that one. The card at Doncaster looks a bit better today and there are a few I fancy but first I’ll give you Gary’s thoughts on the 6f sprint handicap at 4.10…….

I always know the Summer is coming to an end when I have to attend my Calendar Club training day ready for my seasonal employment- For those of you who are new to the blog, during the Winter months (October - January) I work solidly for this company in Cardiff which affords me the luxury of taking the other 8 months off and to back horses and sit on backside in front of the laptop all day.

Training was on the Monday just gone (that’s 7 hours of my life I’m not getting back!) and I start back on September 25th so time is running out on my freedom.

Gary has kindly offered to run a daily tipping service on the blog while I’m back at work for the Winter. It will simply be a few words each day on what he fancies and what he’s backing. This will start on 3rd October and will be completely FREE. You simply come to the main Blog page each day (or whenever you feel like it) and see what he’s gone for. There probably won’t be any daily notifications for this service so it’s best to just take a minute each day to check out the Blog.

I’ll write a couple of blog posts whenever I get a chance but as in previous years things do get a bit busy for me the nearer it gets to Christmas and you won’t be hearing as much from me during this period.

But that’s all a few months away yet and there are more important things happening this week including the Doncaster St Leger meeting. Gary has a couple of big priced runners he’s backing today…….

3.10 Donc. Breathless Kiss (25/1 widely available), has a little to find with a few of these on their Beverley run 11 days ago and has a few pounds to find on ratings, but I think he has a serious chance of at least getting a place. He usually gets a little outpaced and stays on strongly but a fast run 5F is ideal and with Captain Dunne in the field they won’t be hanging around.

I have a house full of nephews this morning and it’s absolute chaos. They’re currently reliving Star Wars in the front room with light sabres, laser blasters and Darth Vader making for an all mighty racket. Trying to concentrate on my Racing Post has been a real challenge. These are the 4 horses I’ve come up with…….

2.30 HAYDOCK

Luckily, no form study was required for me in this race as I’m very keen on the chances of ZUIDER ZEE in this race as it looks like John Gosden sidestepped the Ebor to target this race in an attempt to follow up the stables victory last year. The combination of either running over 1m4f or on soft ground (or both) has done for him this year but everything falls perfectly into place today and he is my bet of the day.

3.15 ASCOT

SWIFT GIFT rarely runs a bad race at Ascot when racing over 7 furlongs and with a belated seasonal run under his belt he could be the answer to this tricky handicap. He has the measure of Smarty Socks on his 2nd behind that one at Doncaster last August (9lb better off for 1 1/4 lengths) and with the going no problem either the 11/1 looks value each way.

3.35 HAYDOCK

There’s only one thing stopping me having a massive each bet on SOCIETY ROCK in the Sprint Cup and that is his draw. Stalls 1-3 have had a torrid time in this race over the years and his 1 draw is the worst possible. Not a single runner in this field won last time out which must be some sort of record for a Group 1 race and quite a lot of these have questions to answer or need to bounce back from a disappointing run last time out. No such worries on that score with the selection and I’m hoping his draw won’t be too much of a handicap.

3.45 ASCOT

This is a really classy race and a very difficult introduction to handicapping for MIDSUMMER SUN so stakes will be small for this one. A lot was expected of this one in the Spring and after a 6 length romp in his maiden he was swiftly upped to Group 3 class at Royal Ascot for his next run. That was a step too far, too quickly for him and he trailed home well beaten. I think a rating of 88 looks about right and as long as his lack of experience doesn’t count against him a samll each way bet at around 16/1 is in order.

It’s a really good day’s racing but it looks tough and I’ve probably picked the hardest 4 races today! I’ve had a big ew bet at 8/1 on Zuider Zee and an each way Lucky 15 on the 4.

As always I’ll leave it up to you what you do with them, Back Them, Lay Them or Ignore Them!

Good luck,
Gavin

P.S. My final review for the profit making THE SECOND THE ONE system can be found here……. http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/the-second-the-one-final-review/

I started tracking this system on the 3rd August and I have to say that initially I was very sceptical about the service and didn’t hold out any great hopes for it. The manual itself was pretty basic and the actual system is extremely straightforward and unappealing BUT you do receive an email every day from the team with the selections and this has always arrived before 11am. It clearly lists the selections with no ambiguity whatsoever. This email service is included in the price and can’t be faulted. The system may be a bit ’slim’ but the email service is well worth the one off payment.

So what of the system itself?

Well it started off with a bang giving 4 winners from the first 6 runners and it really hasn’t looked back since. There have been a few barren spells and on the whole it does tend to pick favourites but the results speak for themselves…..

 In the trial period (3rd August - 31st August) it gave 62 Selections with 4 being non-runners this left 58 that ran.

Of those 58 runners there were 15 winners and 2 placed runners given as each way selections which is a pretty impressive 29% strike rate.

The shortest priced winner was 8/15 and the biggest 16/1.

The full list of winning odds were: 8/15, 10/11, 6/5, 6/4, 15/8, 2/1, 5/2 (twice), 11/4, 10/3, 7/2, 4/1, 11/2, 6/1 and 16/1 plus 2 places at 7/1 & 14/1.

Including in those selections were 4 ‘5-star horses’ which did well with 2 winners (11/2 and 8/15).

On the month to level stakes it finished +£6.10.

On the day I stopped posting the daily runners it gave 4 horses with 2 winners (15/2 and 7/2).

Which leaves me no option other than to file THE SECOND THE ONE as a hit.

If you want to find out more the sales page is here…..>>>>The Second The One<<<<

There is a 60 day money back trial period which means you could track it for another 2 months.

Good luck,
Gavin.