2 winners from 3 yesterday for the TSTO system with both at 5/2.
This leaves the system at + 6.2 points after just two days.
Todays runners are;
5.40 Ayr Weetentherty
6.40 Ayr Burnwynd Boy
7.40 Ayr Retreat Content
7.50 Lingfield Hawk Moth
8.10 Ayr Terenzium
Good luck,
Gavin.
It’s not my favourite meeting of the year but I know some of you like to have a bet on a Saturday so here are some stats that I hope will help you find the ones to follow and ones to be wary of.
Mark Johnston is a big supporter of this meeting and has sent 35 horses to contest the Shergar Cup races since 2004. It’s the same story again this year as he has 8 runners and 2 reserves declared over the 6 races including being responsible for 5 of the 10 runners in the 2.30 (Cup Classic). But up until last year his record at the meeting had been very poor as he went the whole of the period between 2004-2009 without a single success. He redeemed things a little last year when he managed to win both 1m4f races on the card, although he didn’t win with his most fancied runner on either occasion. In fact his record with fancied runners at this meeting is attrocious with ALL 18 of his runners that were sent off at 15/2 or shorter getting beat.
So it’s probably best to stick to the two Class 3 1m4f races and back his lesser fancied runners
Richard Hannon has sent 16 runners to Ascot since 2004 for this meeting and has yet to record a victory. It’s not as if he hasn’t had fancied runners either as 8 of the 16 returned at 8/1 or shorter. They finished 46758952.
He runs Jehanbux (2.30) and Avonmore Star (3.35) but neither will be carrying my money.
So who is the best trainer to follow? Well looking through the stats it seems to be….
Andrew Balding who has managed a very impressive 5 winners from just 21 runners at the meeting since 2004 along with a further 6 placed runners. All 5 winners were aged 3-5yo and came in all-aged handicaps. Surprisingly all 5 finished 7th or worse on their last start. He has 4 runners on Saturday with the two who fit the bill best being……
Chink Of Light 1.25 Ascot
Dungannon 2.00 Ascot
———-
Some facts and figures (2004 - 2010 at Ascot) for the 6 races….
12.50 Mile (handicap)
3 of the winners were 4yo’s.
3 of the winners were 5yo’s.
The finishing position of the 6 winners on their last start were: 933707
5 of the 6 winners ran in a Class 2 handicap on their last start
3 of the 6 winners ran at Glorious Goodwood while a further 2 contested the same Mile handicap at Sandown’s early July meeting on their last start.
So if we stick to the 4 and 5yos we are looking at just half the field. Only 1 horse ran at Glorious Goodwood, where he finished down the field, and he also ran in the Sandown mile handicap at the beginning of July.
I’ll side with Paul Cole’s (his 1 previous runner in this race finished 2nd): CIRCUMVENT
1.25 2m Stayers (handicap)
All 6 winners were aged 4-6yo (2×4yo, 2×5yo, 2×6yo)
5 of the 6 winners were rated 86-92
The finishing position of the 6 winners on their last flat start were: 860800
Mark Johnston horses have finished 278242445
Favourites have finished 111221
5 of the 6 winners had won a Class 2 race (exception had run in Group 1 company)
3 of the 6 winners ran in a long distance handicap at Glorious Goodwood last time out (1 ran over hurdles).
The only 4-6yo in the field to have run at Glorious Goodwood is WOODFALL TREASURE and I’ll also be backing CHINK OF LIGHT who is the right age and rating plus Andrew Balding’s only other runner in this race won.
2.00 5f Dash (handicap)
Only 3 runnings of the 5f Dash so far but
2 winners were aged 5 and 1 was aged 4
Dandy Nicholls horses have finished 12488
All 9 horses to have made the frame were rated 94+ (winners rated 94-98-100)
Only 2 horses rated over 100 have run in this race and both were placed.
2 of the 3 winners were favourite
All 3 winners had run in the 5f handicap at Ascot on King George day (last years winner had run in the Stewards Cup since). They had finished 284 in that race.
The three to choose from here seem to be DUNGANNON, MEDICEAN MAN and DUCHESS DORA with slight preference for the in form MEDICEAN MAN.
2.30 Classic (handicap)
Only 2 runnings of this race so far and nothing to note about either winner.
ART HISTORY looked pretty decent at the start of the season and has had excuses since. He looked to be on his way back last time out at Goodwood and would be my pick of the Johnston runners.
3.00 Challenge (handicap)
There have been 4 x 4yo winners, 1 5yo and 1 6yo
Mark Johnston runners have finished 805241238
Andrew Balding runners have finished 1766
All 6 winners had won a Class 2 or Class 3 handicap
All 6 winners had run in the last 4 weeks
I reckon the sole Mark Johnston runner ENGLISH SUMMER was a little unlucky last time out and can gain compensation here.
3.35 6f Sprint (handicap)
All 6 winners were rated between 86-92. (26 horses rated over 92 have run with just 5 getting placed)
Favourites have finished 261162
All 6 winners had run in the last 5 weeks
5 of the 6 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
All 6 winners had run between 6-9 times in their career (4/6 had run 8 times)
All 6 winners ran in a handicap last time out
The last 5 winners had all won in class 4 or above
Nothing has an exact profile but I like the look of GLAS BURN and JULIUS GEEZER
It’s not a meeting to get too heavily involved in and I’d rather save my money until York next week but hopefully I’ve pointed you in the right direction in at least a few of the races.
Good luck,
Gavin.
SYSTEM REVIEW - THE SECOND THE ONE
Yesterday we had 1 Non-Runner, 2 winners at 6/5 and 2/1 plus a 4/1 loser leaving us + 2.2 at level stakes. Not a bad start at all.
Today’s selections are:
Maher 3.10 Lingfield
Whitby Jet 4.30 Brighton
Dancing Primo 6.00 Haydock
The Second The One
It’s a really bizarre name for a racing product and I have no idea what the idea behind the moniker is but a few of you have been asking what I know about this system and it’s author. To be honest, not a lot, so I thought I’d buy it, trial it and let you know my thoughts on it throughout this month.
So starting today I’ll be reviewing The Second The One racing system. The sales blurb is here…..
You can buy the product through clickbank which means that you get a ‘60 day full, no questions asked money back guarantee’ and should give you plenty of time to make your mind up as to whether the system works for you or not.
So, I shelled out the £34.94 (£29.99 + VAT), bypassed the all to common upsells and then got various emails back to my inbox. The system gives you lifetime emails with the selections so it’s pretty easy to see what you should be backing each day. But to get these you have enter your email address and confirm your subscription via another email. This is to comply with the anti-spam laws and is all pretty standard.
The other emails give you a secret code (very James Bond!) and a link for the download. Here you have to enter the code then your clickbank receipt number and you finally get your The Second The One Manual. Hooray!
The excitement, the anticipation………..all for a 7 page pdf booklet.
Yep, 7 pages! Of which 1 has a picture, another has a disclaimer, one has 4 lines that overan page 6 and one has an introduction. There’s half a page on betting banks that makes no sense at all (nor does it give you examples of what sort of betting bank they suggest you should use) and another bit on dealing with a loss (nothing like preparing your reader for the worst is there?). All of this sounds like it is written by a 7yo (in fact I think Dylan could probably have done a better job) and purely there to fluff out the guide from 2 pages to 7.
You also get a couple of racecards taken from the Sporting Life website which help explain how to make the selections.
There’s a lot of large fonts with the text in bold writing, plenty of spaces between everything and a helpful guide for those who don’t know how many yards are in a furlong. But hey, if it gets results who cares?
So far the signs aren’t promising but let’s give it the benefit of doubt for the moment. The system itself uses 5 rules to select the race in which we are betting in, these are really easy to apply, and then one further rule to sort out your selection. If there are more than 2 selections in a race then it’s a no bet.
If the selection is 6/1 or under they recommend a win bet and if it’s 7/1 or more then back it Each Way. Bizzarely they haven’t thought about what to do if it’s 13/2 so let’s hope that that scenario never happens. We’re not told either whether the price refers to SP, Betfair, Early Prices or the betting guide in The Sun but we are told that we should never risk more than 50% (!) of our betting bank each day. Crikey, I should hope not!
And that’s about it. A 6 rule system that is easy to use and the selections sent to your email in-box every day for life. Let’s see how they get on over the next fortnight.
There are 4 runners today…..
Ermyntrude 5.00 Brighton
Astrovenus 5.25 Yarmouth
Anjomarba 7.10 Folkestone
Destiny Of Dreams 8.15 Folkestone
———–
Football
The Racing Post have ruined my latest punt on the football as they have tipped my big fancy for top scoring honours in the Championship. CRAIG MACKAIL SMITH was a goal scoring machine for Peterborough last season and was the main reason we were promoted out of League 1. His 27 goals last year meant he had a lot of big clubs chasing him during the close season but he turned down Wigan, West Ham, Leicester and even Everton to join Brighton for an undisclosed fee. This surprised a lot of people but must say something about the aspirations of the South coast team who themselves may be a decent each way bet for the Championship at 22/1 with William Hill. The RP tipped Mackail Smith at 20’s which means he’s now top priced 18/1 with Victor Chandler but that’s still looks pretty decent to me. He’ll be the first name on the team sheet every week and managed to stay fit throughout the season so as long as he is able to adjust to the better class of teams in the Championship he’ll get plenty of opportunities to bag plenty of goals.
The 150/1 on Peterborough will tempt me for a couple of pounds each way as you’ve got to back your team haven’t you?
Golf tip
My cousin has been in good form on the golf tipping front recently and has sent me a golfer to back for this weekend’s WGC Bridgestone Invitational. The tournament sees the latest comeback from Tiger Woods but he’s not who we’ll be backing as we’re on BO VAN PELT at 55/1. He was 3rd in this tournament last year with 4 sub 70 rounds and has been pretty consistent on the American tour recently with a top 14 finish on all of his last 6 starts.
Golf betting is notoriously difficult to get right but you don’t need too many 55/1 winners to show a profit on the year
This weekend
I won’t be getting too involved with the betting this weekend as it’s the Shergar Cup meeting at Ascot. I saw enough of team racing last Wednesday at Goodwood, when team Hannon kept Red Duke boxed in behind Chandlery in the Vintage Stakes, to put me off watching a whole afternoon of it. If they really must stage an event like this then they should invite the top 12 jockeys in the world to the meeting and let them duke it out over 6 races (12 runners per race) to see who scores the most points. No teams, no tactics just jockey vs jockey vs jockey. Call it the Piggott Cup and may the best man or woman win.
Good luck,
Gavin.
