It’s getting close to the end of this system trial and despite my misgivings it has performed well over the past 4 weeks. I’ll be conducting a full review on Wednesday but until then here are the runners for today…..

Wednesday

16:00    Bath    Only You Maggie   - LOST
20:50    Kempton    If What And Maybe - LOST

Tuesday

16:55    Epsom    Ermyntrude      Each-Way - LOST
18:10    Southwell    Why So Serious      Each-Way - LOST
19:40    Southwell    Golden Creek - LOST

Monday

17:20    Ripon    Pivot Bridge - LOST

Sunday

14:45    Goodwood    Choral Festival - LOST
16:20    Yarmouth    Spyder  - 3RD 7/1
16:55    Yarmouth    Miss Whippy  LOST

Good luck,
Gavin

I like the racing today and there are plenty of horses I’ll be backing. My luck hasn’t been great through the month of August with just a few of Gary’s tips and a couple of big each way places keeping my head above water but I usually have my best period on the flat at the end of the Season and I’ll be hoping that’s the case this year as well. Let’s see if this little lot can kickstart my revival……

3.00 Newmarket

 Brian Meehan has an excellent record with fancied (15/2 and under) 2yo’s at Newmarket in August and he has a likely sort here with CHAPERELLIE. He was readily brushed aside by the impressive Dreamwriter from the Richard Hannon stable last time at Newbury but he ran a funny race that day from the 2 furlong pole and looked  like the experience would do him good. The ones that have run already don’t look anything special and as long as there is no superstar waiting to be unleashed amongst the unraced runners I think the selection will be in the shake-up.

3.10 Cartmel

Richard Ford does really well with his handicap chasers at this course and the booking of Tony McCoy for COLDITZ looks a strong indicator to this ones chances. He won at the meeting last year and his runs so far this season look geared to him taking this race today. He’s my bet of the day and Stan James’ 5/2 has been taken.

3.30 Newmarket

Richard Hannon looks to have found an ideal opportunity for MONSIEUR CHEVALIER to get off the mark this season and he’ll find this a lot easier than the Group 1 contests he’s been running in of late. He’s never won over 6f but his second over the distance at Royal Ascot is far superior to any form on show in this race and soft ground is no problem for this speedy type who was a very tough 2yo. 5/2 looks a very generous price to me.

3.50 Goodwood

Pricewise has gone and tipped this blogs old favourite DOCOFTHEBAY which means he probably won’t be an each way price anymore (the Tote are currently best priced 10/1 on him.) He has been running well all season and has proved himself a reliable handicapper in these sort of races. He’s won over the course and distance and should be involved in the finish once more. It’s a tough race so I’ll also be backing WEBBOW as well. He won over course and distance last time and is another very consistent performer in these types of races.

4.35 Newmarket

I have been waiting all year for VIVA VETTORI to run over 10f and I finally get my wish today. Unfortunately his trainer, David Elsworth, has slipped back into the same dreadful form he was in at the beginning of the season and it’s rather put me off backing him. Of all the horses in  my note-book he’s my banker bet but I think I may have to wait for another day to get my money on. Just a small each way bet today just in case.

5.10 Newmarket

JUDGE N JURY has cost me some money this year but I’m going to keep the faith and try and get my money back on him today. He’s dropped like a stone through the ratings and now sits on a mark of just 82 which is the lowest he’s raced off for 3 years. It’s been a while since he won a race but he has shown glimpses that some talent remains this season and he did run his best race of the year here at Newmarket. There are quite a few non runners already in the race so 11/2 looks fair to me.

As always do what you will with them…..Back Them, Lay Them or Ignore Them!

My trends service today covers the big two races over at Goodwood and we’ve sided with Godolphin in both of them. If you want to see the stats and how I came to my decisions then you can download the guide from here http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/Goodwoodaugust2011.pdf

It’s 100% FREE and requires just the one click. No details of any kind are required and you won’t be asked for any payment. It’s a direct access, no strings attached, completely FREE offer.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. There are no runners for the decent performing The Second The One system today.

 Friday’s TSTO runners…..

14:30    Ffos Las    Pivot Bridge 
16:40    Brighton    Peira 
19:15    Brighton    Interakt   
19:45    Brighton    Bateleur

————-

TIM VAUGHAN

I doubt there’s a hotter trainer in the country at the moment than Tim Vaughan who has seen 15 of his last 38 runners win and 25 of them make the first three over the last fortnight. These winners have included one at 8/1 and two at 14/1.

He sends a few runners to Ffos Las this afternoon and a couple to Cartmel this evening. They may be worth keeping an eye on….

SAVED BY JOHN 2.20 FL
GRAND ART 2.50 FL
HOUSE OF BOURBON 3.50 FL
GRAND LAHOU 4.50 FL
PIMENT D’ESTRUVAL 4.50 FL
THE FERBANE MAN 6.00 CART
DEFINITE DAWN 6.30 CART

———–

I’m really not that keen on the system but you can’t fault the results as The Second The One is enjoying something of a purple patch at the moment. It’s shown a profit for every day so far this week and yesterday banged in a 16/1 winner. After a minor flirtation with negative equity it soon got back into the black and hasn’t looked back since. The system currently stands at +£13.40 to level stakes since I started trialing it at the beginning of the month. I’ll have my final review on Monday but unless something catastrophic happens between now and then it looks like it will be filed under ’success’.

The full sales page is here:  >>>>The Second The One<<<<

Thursday

15:10    Carlisle    Bosun Breese   
17:10    Carlisle    Northern Flyer

————-

Wednesday

 16:50    Catterick    Al Furat - 5 star selection LOST
19:40    Wolverhampton    Full Bloom  - Each-Way LOST
20:20    Kempton    Compton Target - Each-Way WON 16/1

————–

Tuesday

16:00    Leicester    Flying Power WON 6/1
17:00    Warwick    Atia      Each-Way LOST
18:50    Yarmouth    Cool Water Oasis LOST
19:20    Yarmouth    Smirfy’s Silver   LOST
20:00    Warwick    Sugar Hiccup (5 star selection) WON 8/15

————-

Monday

16:30    Hamilton    Blown It    LOST
17:40    Hamilton    Smart Violetta WON 11/4

Good luck,
Gavin.

Just the one runner today for the second, the one system…..

14:40    Folkestone    Jonnie Skull

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s been a tough week for me with just Gary’s 16/1 winner on Wednesday to help pay for all my other losers. Twice Over catching Midday was particularly hard to swallow as he is such a favourite of mine and Prohibit winning the race on his side but failing to catch Margot Did was another bitter blow. It looks like I need a good Saturday to balance the books. Here goes……

2.00 York

Dream Eater will be well fancied here as he drops down to Listed class but he’s one of those horses who nearly always seems to find one too good no matter what the grade so I’m going to agree with my brother and side with REGAL PARADE who is sure to appreciate the trip, going and the track.

2.30 York

Quite simply, when Luca Cumani sends out a fancied runner in a race at this meeting over an extended trip you have to back it. LYRIC STREET has only run three times in his career but  has some very interesting form including finishing 5th to Dominant (favourite to beat Twice Over on his next start!). In form Kieren Fallon is on board and I can’t see this one finishing out of the frame.

3.40 York

I’m absolutely gutted that Zuider Zee isn’t running as I’d convinced myself that John Gosden was plotting to win the Ebor with him all season. Back to the drawing board. So, I’m going to take a chance on another Gosden runner who is a big price. INVESTISSEMENT was highly tried by Evan Williams over jumps last winter with two runs in Grade 1 and Grade 2 company. He didn’t do too well in that sphere but back on the flat this season he has run two very good races at Goodwood either side of a poor run in the Northumberland Plate. He scored very highly on the trends and I’ll be backing him each way in the hope of getting at least a place.

3.55 Sandown

This one’s Gary’s and I have no idea what he has seen here to fancy DAMIKA but I learnt long ago not to question why. I’ll leave it up to you whether you want to follow him blind on this one. I’ll be backing it each way.

5.05 Sandown

SHERE KHAN is a horse I noted well back in the Spring (18th May blogpost) and I waited patiently for Hannon to send it over 6f in a Nursery handicap. My patience was rewarded when he scored in exactly those conditions a couple of weeks back at the very rewarding odds of 16/1 (he was only 5/1 in the morning tissue). He’s gone up a few pounds for that win but he also steps up in trip again to 7f and I think that should bring out even further improvement in him. I shall be playing up my winnings on him again in the Nursery at 5.05.

Anyone having a bet in the 3.20 at Sandown needs their head testing as it’s the most incredibly competitive fillies and mares race I’ve ever seen. I’ll be backing Music Show…….

Good luck,
Gavin.

TSTO System….

Just as I start to lose patience with this system it throws up a 14/1 second and a 11/2 five star winner. It’s now back in the black at +1.52pts…

19:30    Fontwell    Allterrain

Friday

21:20    Wolverhampton    Colonel Sherman

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’m off for a round of pitch and putt with Dylan and his cousin before spending the afternoon in Porthcawl and then watching Cardiff vs Brighton tonight. I’ve put my bets on early and these are the ones I’m cheering today…..

 2.00 York

Gary’s sprinters continue in good form and he added Green Park yesterday to his list of recent winners. He fancies Secret Asset in the first at York today and I’m happy to follow him in on this one.

2.30 York

Brian Meehan won this race in 2007 and 2010 and looks to have a great chance of making it a hat-trick of wins with Archbishop. He won his only start at Sandown over 7f at the end of last month and has the beating of Rock Supreme (ran 2nd to Red Duke on debut) on that run.

I don’t like the 3.05 race as Seville looks too short to me on what he has achieved so far. If I knew Regent Street was running on his merits and not as pacemaker I’d back him each way at around 50/1 but I’ll give the race the swerve.

3.40 York

Twice Over has been one of my favourite horses over the last few years and he’s won me plenty but no horse aged 6yo or over has EVER won the Juddmonte International so I’m siding with Sir Henry’s other runner Midday. It’s interesting that she tackles this race instead of the Yorkshire Oaks and Tom Queally prefers her to Twice Over. If she runs like she did in the Coronation Cup she’ll take all the beating.

4.15 York

West Leak Hare is Barry Hills’ well fancied runner and his second at Glorious Goodwood looks good form. He’ll do for me in a very tricky race.

4.50 York

If Naqshabban consents to go into the stalls I think he’ll run well but he hasn’t done so on his last two intended starts and a safer option has to be the Sir Michael Stoute trained Eagles Peak. The trainer has won this race 3 times in the last 8 years and this Newmarket maiden winner has an oustanding chance of making it 4 from 9

————–

The Second The One System

The system plods on supplying fancied horse after fancied horse with only moderate success. Since I started tracking the system it shows a small loss of -3.78 points to level stakes at SP. It does highlight plenty of winners but unfortunately there are too many losers and most are favourites. It still has 2 weeks of the month left before I end this trial….

Today’s runners….

16:35    Nottingham    The Buska
17:00    Carlisle    Bocciani (5 star selection)
17:25    Folkestone    Come On The Irons 
17:30    Carlisle    Clueless

Good luck,
Gavin.

My betting and blog posting have seen a little bit of a cutback recently but it’s nothing to do with the recession or a loss of my bankroll (although it has taken a bit of a battering thanks to a load of 2nd place finishers at the end of July). No, it’s simply because the racing has been very poor since Goodwood and I haven’t really seen anything interesting to back.

So the money I would have lost on the horses has been lost at poker instead and the rest of the time has been spent taking the family here and there on our Summer holiday staycation. I’ve certainly got no problem staying in this country although we did have to alter our plans a bit last week as we were due to go and see my good friend Matt and his lovely other half, Carole, in riot torn Hackney for the latest stage of our round Britain tour. The missus got cold feet after seeing the news and persuaded me to book a hotel instead. As anyone who has tried booking a half decent hotel in London, in the middle of the Summer at short notice will testify they don’t come cheap and after paying out nearly £200 for one night’s accommodation I hope those rioting scumbags get hefty sentences. I could have kipped at Geegeez Towers for nothing and put the money to better use by having £100 ew on Zuider Zee for the Ebor.

While the night time rioting had quietened down by the time we got to London it was apparent that daylight robbery was still very much alive in the capital as I found out on our family excursion to Madame Tussauds. Having been to the one in Las Vegas for less than £20 for the three of us it was a bit of a shock to be charged £28.80 per adult and £24.60 for a child and that after having queued up for nearly an hour. Crikey, thats a £5 Lucky 15! The museum itself was packed with tourists and to be honest, not that good, although Dylan thought it was ‘wicked‘! The Sea Life Centre we visited the next day only cost a £2 Lucky 15 and was 10 times better. I thoroughly recommend it to anyone visiting London. Dylan thought this was ‘the pips’! Dinner in Giraffe on the Southbank followed (final bill was a £10 Yankee for the 5 of us), where the food according to Dylan was ‘Lush‘, before we said our goodbyes and headed home to Penarth. Last words on our trip go to Dylan who thought the 2 days were ‘boshing brilliant’. (My two words would have been ‘bloody expensive’.)

Back in Penarth for the weekend I attempted to recoup some of my expenditure with the 5 horses I blogged on Saturday. Diescentric ran exactly as I had hoped with Paul Hanagan proving yet again why he is Champion Jockey, Docofthebay ran a cracker but found a couple too good although I had managed to back him each way at 12/1, Dimension was a non-runner which left Fathsta and Golden Destiny. Neither ran anything like I had hoped and were both very disappointing. It meant that I did manage to make a profit on the day but it wasn’t enough to cover the weeks outgoings.

Looks like it’s going to have to be an all out attack on York this week.

———-

York trainer and jockey stats…..

The big Ebor meeting starts a bit later this year with Wednesday being the first day and the Ebor itself being moved to Saturday to provide a fitting climax to the 4 days. I did some trainer stats last year for the meeting, which didn’t do too badly, and have merely tweaked them a bit to try and pinpoint a few winners this week.

POSITIVES

JOHN DUNLOP runners carrying plenty of weight……

• He already has a great record at the meeting with 8 winners from 28 runners since 2004 but by concentrating solely on his runners that carried more than 8-12 and were14/1 or shorter in the betting you would have backed those 8 winners for just 16 bets and shown a profit of +£46 to level stakes.

  The 16 horses finished: 3114125161511147

SIR MICHAEL STOUTE 4 and 5yo’s……

• Since 2004 he’s had 7 winners from 27 such runners and shows a profit of +24.75pts. You would have backed at least 1 winner a year for every year since 2004

BARRY HILLS fancied runners…..

• Since 2004 he’s trained 6 winners at the meeting from 57 runners for a level stakes loss but all 6 winners came from the top 3 in the betting. By simply backing these types of Hills runners with the same jockey on board as their previous start you would have had 6 winners from 13 runners and shown a level stakes profit of +£23.50

LUCA CUMANI fancied runners over 1m4f+…….

• He’s trained 5 winners from 26 runners since 2004 and all 5 have been 1^st or 2^nd favourite running over a distance of 1m4f to 1m7f. The 8 such horses Luca Cumani has run since 2004 have finished 12113211 and show a LSP of +£18.50

FRANKIE DETTORI riding the first or second favourite…….

• Since 2004 he’s ridden 9 winners at York’s Ebor meeting and all 9 came from the top 2 in the betting. They were all colts and geldings carrying 9-05 or less.

  The 19 such runners finished: 1122731211316110010 and showed a LSP of +£18.12

NEGATIVES

MARK JOHNSTON horses that finished 5^th or worse on their last start.

• Since 2004 he’s had 37 such runners (including 9 last year) for no winners and just 3 placed

RICHARD FAHEY 2yo’s

• Since 2004 his 28 2yo runners have managed a solitary 5/4 winner and 2 places for a level stakes loss of -£25.75

AIDEN O’BRIEN outsiders

• Every one of his horses, since 2004, that has started at 3/1 or bigger has been beaten. That accounted for 29 of his 45 runners (7 were placed).

CLIVE BRITTAIN older horses

• He’s managed just 2 places from his 16 runners aged 3 and over since 2004

If you want to download a copy of these stats simply click here for a free pdf guide….. http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/ebormeeting2011.pdf

Good luck,
Gavin.

Tuesday

15:30    Brighton    Golden Waters - Five Star Selection
16:00    Brighton    Konstantin   
17:00    Brighton    Do More Business   
17:30    Brighton    Ace of Spies

Monday

20:20    Yarmouth    Native Colony

Good luck,
Gavin.

I haven’t been backing too many horses recently as I await the York Ebor meeting but there are a few horses running today that I’ve been keeping my eye on. I’m not going to get too heavily involved with them but some each way singles and an each way Lucky 31 look the best option on these 5…..

(As always, do what you will with them: back them, lay them or ignore them!)

2.00 Newbury

When I was at Glorious Goodwood to watch the mighty Frankel my brother was very keen on a horse at a big price in the penultimate race. I actually fancied the winner Webbow myself and had my main bet on him but I also backed Gary’s tip each way at 25/1. While Webbow was getting a great ride from the front from Fallon, GOLDEN DESERT was getting a real shocker from ‘Frank’ Spencer as he travelled supremely well behind the leaders. At the furlong pole he decided to move sharply to the left and make his effort. Despite the horse running on very strongly he was unable to overcome the handicap of having Spencer on board and could only finish 4th, beaten about a length. He ran again 2 days later at the meeting but the combination of a bad draw and a drop to 6f meant he was unable to get competitive in the Stewards Cup consolation race. A 2 week break, a return to 7f and a very attractive handicap mark leads me to believe that even off top weight he can make his prescence felt here and 14/1 could offer some value.

2.55 Ripon

I’ve been following Sir Henry’s DIESCENTRIC for quite a while now and after steadily dropping in the handicap this season he could be finally down to a mark he can take advantage of. He paid the price for racing up with a strong pace at Goodwood last time out as he weakened quite quickly in the final furlong of that 9f race. Back to a mile today with the eye-catching jockey booking of Paul Hanagan I’m banking on him finally getting back into the winners enclosure.

3.20 Newmarket

Another horse I’ve been backing religously this season is DIMENSION and today is the last chance saloon for him and I. I’m not sure James Fanshawe has quite worked out this one’s best trip and he’s raced over 7f and a mile on his last few starts. The drop back to 6f looks a positive move, in what looks like being a strongly run race, and with Kieren Fallon onboard everything looks set for another big run.

3.30 Ripon

FASTHSTA has been running well in these types of races all season and can gain his reward today from an ideal looking draw. With his style of running he does tend to find trouble in the closing stages of these big field handicaps but he has dropped to a very handy handicap mark and I take him to win this competitive looking race. Any rain would be an added bonus.

 3.45 Doncaster

I quite fancy an each way bet on DOCOFTHEBAY in this very difficult handicap. He likes to come off a strong pace and with 20 runners in the race he should get that here today. The 6f of the Stewards Cup was probably a bit short for him last time out and he’s better judged on his 6th in the Bunbury Cup and 5th at Royal Ascot when racing over 7f. He’s 2lb lower today and if everything drops right for him from stall 20 the 12/1 could be value.

With Golden Desert, Diescentric, Dimension and Docofthebay it looks like I’ll be cheering on the D’s today and with Delegator our trends pick for the Hungerford Stakes (3.40) and Dumbarton the h’cap trainers pick in the 5.20 I’ll be having either a decidedly dodgy day or deliriously delightful one. I really hope it’s the latter……

———

The Second, The One..

After a promising start the TSTO system has revealed it’s true colours over the last few days with quite a few well fancied losers being selected. Backing short priced favourites is always going to produce winners but for such a system to be profitable it also needs an excellent strike rate which is something we haven’t seen yet from TSTO. I’ll carry on tracking the runners until the end of the month but I’m not confident that this particular system will be able to produce the number of winners required to make it all worthwhile.

Today’s runner……..

17:40    Lingfield    Hand Painted

Good luck,
Gavin.

Todays selections;

15:30    Nottingham    Deslaya   
17:05    Newcastle    I Got You Babe  
17:15    Nottingham    Kie

Selections for Thursday 11th

15:15    Beverley    Red Roar
20:10    Goodwood    Bermondsey Bob 

4 losers and a non-runner from yesterday’s 5 selections. Current position= +3.53pts to level stakes.

Today’s qualifiers are:

3:25    Yarmouth    Scarborough Lily   
5:50    Beverley    Kodicil   
7:30    Kempton    Whodathought 
9:00    Kempton    Mister Ben Vereen  
9:20    Wolverhampton    Till Dawn  

There are a couple of likely big priced horses amongst those today which means according to the system we will have to back them each way (7/1 and up).

Good luck,
Gavin.

——-

THE SECOND THE ONE RUNNERS

Despite my initial misgivings about the system I have to admit that it has performed pretty well since I started tracking the runners. I know it’s early days so far and I’m certainly not getting carried away but it gave 2 winners from 3 runners yesterday at 10/3 and 4/1 to bring its overall profit to +7.53pts. That’s pretty good going in anyones book. I’ll keep reviewing the selections for another couple of weeks.

Today’s runners are;

MUSIC FESTIVAL 3.00 AYR
PURKAB 3.30 AYR
NOT BAD FOR A BOY 6.45 NOTTINGHAM
DIAMOND VINE 7.00 FFOS LAS
HE’S A HUMBUG 7.15 NOTTINGHAM

The Second The One

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. A lot of you have been emailing me to ask if I can carry on the Summer Tipping service. Well good news, I’m away for a couple of days from today but I’ll re-start the service from Saturday.

Morar 2.00 Lingfield
Highlife Dancer 2.30 Lingfield
Waahej 8.10 Windsor

Good luck,
Gavin.

5 losers from 5 runners yesterday leave the system just 1.2pts in profit after 3 days.

There are no selections for todays racing.

Good luck,
Gavin.