Gary’s been in top form with his sprint tips this week with 3 of his last 4 selections winning (Pinball 16/1, Secret Asset 14/1 and Hotham yesterday at 15/2) so I thought he’d be the best person to take a look at today’s two big sprints from Goodwood. Incidentally, the loser of the 4 was Mister Hughie and he goes in the 2.45 Doncaster today.

Anyway over to Gary…….

I’ll start by looking at the consolation race the 2.05. One thing I will say to start with is that I don’t think the draw is going to make any difference as all week the track has seemed very fair all over. It’s going to be more a case of where there is plenty of pace you have the advantage. In this race there are plenty of old favourites of mine who have both won and lost me loads over the last couple of seasons but as with nearly all sprinters if you stick with them they pay you back in the end. Saucy Brown, Joseph Henry, Oldjoesaid and Baby Strange all fit firmly into that catagory.

The likely favourite here is Golden Desert (Ouch! If any of you backed him on Wednesday and saw the ride ‘Frank’ Spencer gave him you’d forgive me for swearing. Awful, awful, awful.) but I’m not sure the drop in trip is what he needs as one of the major reasons for me fancying him so much was the 7F trip. He has what looks a good draw in 25 against the stands rail but more importantly he has Joseph Henry only 2 stalls away and that guarantees you plenty of pace on this side.

If I look back to the day we all went to Newmarket for Matt’s race day, Gavin told us all to do Novellen Lad at Newbury (which won at 16/1) with the 3rd home in that race my own personal fancy. His name was SECRET WITNESS and he is my main fancy here. He loves big field handicaps where he can get tucked away and he has stall 4 so I’m hoping there will be pace over the far side or better still they all come down the middle and he can get plenty of cover.

My other fancy has stall 15 and can race up with the pace. He again has some creditable form in these big handicaps although his form is very in and out. I think this race will be tailormade for EVERYMANFORHIMSELF.

 Both my selections are available at 33/1 if you shop around.

Selection SECRET WITNESS      33/1
Danger    EVERYMANFORHIMSELF  33/1

3.45 The Stewards Cup is again full of old favourites of mine and it is an ultra competitive event (14 of the runners are rated 100+ which would make a cracking Group 3 race). Top weight and hot favourite Hoof It won well last week but 10st in a race like this takes some carrying. I’m going to stick with my early season prediction when I said that TIDDLIWINKS would win a big sprint handicap this season. He didn’t do his handicap mark any favours when running 3rd in a Group 3 but his last run is best forgotten as his jockey lost his stirrups. He is capable of winning a Group race and I’m very confident of a big run. The dangers include Macs Power who ran a cracker from the wrong side at Ascot, Pastoral Player, Colonel Mak, Tajneed and my mid week winner Secret Asset. There has been a lot of money in the last 24 hours for Edinburgh Knight and he’s now around 10/1 but his form doesn’t look good enough to me and he is a weak finisher. His price is way too short for me to get involved. One I do give an excellent chance to is Fashsta, he was a very fast finisher last Saturday behind Hoof It, but my danger is going to be DOCOFTHEBAY. He is due a change of luck in these big field handicaps as he has been running creditably for most of the season although mainly at 7f. However he showed he can cut it over 6f when a staying on 3rd to Pastoral Player at Newmarket.

Selection TIDDLIWINKS 20/1
Danger    DOCOFTHEBAY 25/1

I will be doing 4 ew singles and 2×2 4 ew doubles but only with firms betting on the first 5 home.

Good luck,
Gary

Wow, what a great day!

 I’ll review the weeks events on Monday but seeing Frankel win yesterday was the highlight of my racing year. What a ride, what a turn of foot and what a horse! Oh and what a price I got on him! 2/1 that he would win by more than 2 lengths. Dylan’s Summer holiday outings are now paid in full. With Seaside Sizzler (ew), Whiplash Willie, Rakasa and my old favourite Webbow, the family spent most of yesterday afternoon cheering home the winners. Brilliant.

Let’s see if I can continue backing winners today with this little lot….

2.15 Goodwood

According to the trainer stats I dug up last week FULGUR is just the type of horse Luca Cumani excels with at this meeting. I’ll be hoping he gets a clearer run than Forte Dei Marmi got on Tuesday. I’ll also be having a small each way interest on SPECIFIC GRAVITY who ran very well at Royal Ascot last time out. Gary is very keen on Barney Rebel at 33/1 in this race.

2.45 Goodwood

This isn’t a race I like very much and I’ll probably give it a swerve. Gary tells me that if Swiss Diva is allowed to run it is his best bet of the day.

3.15 Goodwood

The drop back to 2 miles should be right up MANIGHAR’s street and he can give Fallon another winner on what could be a good day for the jockey. He didn’t get home in the Ascot Gold Cup but was travelling as well as anything turning in for home. As long as the ground doesn’t get too firm he should be in the mix.

3.45 Goodwood

WILD COCO is another who won’t want the ground to firm up too much as she has won both her last two starts on a softish surface. She looked better than the 1/2 length she beat Meeznah by last time out and is amazingly 4lb better off with that rival due to the conditions of this race. The step up to 1m6f looks well within her compass and she’ll be very hard to beat today.

4.20 Goodwood

I won’t be getting heavily involved in this race but I do like backing Andrew Balding 2yo’s over 7f. His Distant Love may be worth a little each way interest.

4.55 Goodwood

James Fanshawe looks completely undecided about the right trip for DIMENSION as he alternates between running over 7f and 1 mile. I feel this is his best trip although he did look a little outpaced when running over 7f at Sandown. I reckon Fallon will ride this one in a similar style to the ride he gave Webbow yesterday and hopefully get the same result.

5.25 Goodwood

The races aren’t getting any easier and the last looks a real minefield. There are plenty I could give a chance to but I’ll be having a small investment on the bottom weight ORTHODOX LAD as his connections won this race a couple of years back with a similar type. He’s still a maiden but has run some good races in defeat and the step up in trip looks a good move.

Good luck,
Gavin.

…..strikes again! He tipped my fancy Forte Dei Marmi and Gary’s hope Mirrored in the first race at Goodwood and once again showed that when he and I agree it’s a recipe for disaster.

I’m at the Sussex Downs on Wednesday to see Frankel so I’ll leave the tipping to Gary who managed a 14/1 winner yesterday from his 3 tips and once again showed that he is king of the outsiders!

He’s gone for….

TROVARE 2.00
GREYFRIARS DRUMMER 3.45
GOLDEN DESERT 4.00
TOTALLY OURS 5.30

Good luck,
Gavin.

When my brother and I had our betting shops Glorious Goodwood was the highlight of our year. Cheltenham was always good but came at the wrong time of the year for our business, Grand National day was always the busiest but never that profitable (you spend all morning taking the money off everyone to give it all back to 10% of the customers after the race), Royal Ascot came just before the Summer holidays and served purely as an appetiser for the busiest and most profitable meeting for us year in, year out. With all our shops located in seaside resorts we relied heavily on the tourist trade and Glorious Goodwood always slotted in nicely with the first couple of weeks of the kids summer holidays.

And most importantly the results were ALWAYS good for us. Second Set winning the Sussex Stakes in 1991 was the one that sticks in my mind the most as we laid everything else in the race and backed the winner ourselves for one of the best days we ever had. It drifted in the betting all morning and afternoon and we just kept backing it at all prices. I also remember Spinning winning twice in 2 days at the meeting and saving us a fortune when beating a Dick Hern trained hot favourite in the second of his victories. Double Trigger at 16/1 in the Goodwood Cup in 1997, Persiano 10/1 in the Mile in 2000 and Gary backing the winner of the Stewards Cup 4 years on the trot in the mid 90’s were all great memories too. Unfortunately it only ever seemed to occur for that one week a year!

It’s still a meeting I love betting at and I’ll be there on Wednesday to see the mighty Frankel in the flesh for the first time. I’m taking the family along too and we’re having a day by the sea at Brighton tomorrow. Dylan’s been obsessed with visiting Brighton since his favourite football player Craig Mackail Smith transferred there from Peterborough and he’s convinced himself he’s going to see him walking around the town and get his autograph. Anyway before I set off on the 3 1/2 hour trip down South here’s what I’ll be backing on the first two days of the meeting…..

2.00 Bet365 Handicap

I’m having a big each way bet in this race on the Luca Cumani trained Forte Dei Marmi. It’s won at the course, it’s won at the distance, it’s our trends selection, Cumani’s won the race before (2001) and this drop back into handicap company looks a good move for him after he’s struggled to get competitive in stakes races this season. Fallon rides Goodwood as well as anyone and using the trainer stats I found last week Cumani has a great record with this type of runner in this kind of race at the meeting. All in all, this one looks set for a big run.

2.30 Gordon Stakes

It’s difficult to see past Fiorente in this race as the form of his second to Nathaniel at Royal Ascot got a big boost over the weekend. He was beaten by 5 lengths at Royal Ascot but the Stoute/Moore team got their tactics all wrong that day as he was taken wide of the others after the start and crossed over late to rejoin the field. He was always struggling to get into the race after that but he did stay on late to take the runner up spot. I doubt we’ll see a repeat of those tactics tomorrow and with nothing in the line-up of Nathaniel’s class Fiorente looks the bet of the day to me.

3.10 Lennox Stakes

The 7f and conditions of this race look tailor made for Strong Suit and having backed him each way for the Guineas and opposed him with Codemaster at Royal Ascot I’m looking to get my money back here. Dangers are aplenty and include Delegator, who looks destined never to become a Group 1 winner (form figures of 2111141 when racing outside of the highest company), but he has a 4lb penalty to shoulder here in this Group 2 contest and may just find the weight concession to the 3yo’s too much. In last years race Dalghar cruised 2 lengths clear in the final furlong only to fold in the last 50 yards and finish 3rd. He’s since changed stables and been campaigned over 6f this season so a return to this 7f race may bring him back to life and he’s got strong each way claims. Both Balthazaars Gift (finished 2nd in this race in 2009) and Red Jazz (didn’t look like he acted on the track) finished down the field last year and they may struggle again in what looks a much hotter race this time around. The other 3yo Hannon horse Libranno should also appreciate this 7f and has won on the course before. I’ll be having a combination forecast/tricast on these three;

Strong Suit (to win)
Libranno
Dalghar

3.45 Molecomb Stakes

Richard Hannon has taken this race for both of the last 2 years and his Crown Dependency will be all the rage here tomorrow but he won his maiden over 6f and the drop back to 5f at Royal Ascot certainly didn’t seem to work out for him as he was doing all his best work late on. I fear it could be the same story again this time. Miss Work Of Art looked really smart at the start of the season and was a filly I had high hopes for but she ran terribly at the Newmarket July meeting although the 6f may have stretched her stamina that day. Back to 5f on this speed track we could see her bounce back and it’s worth noting that fillies have taken this race 8 times in the last 15 years. At around 14/1 she’s worth another chance as an each way investment.

I’m swerving the 4.20 but in the 4.50 I’ll be backing Mark Johnston’s Guest Book as he fulfils the criteria I set out in last weeks trainer stat post. David Elsworth continues to run Viva Vettori in mile races and for the life of me I can’t see why he’s doing that when it looks blatantly obvious that the horse needs to step up in trip. He’s either plotting some end of season coup or he’ll pop up here at 25/1 and make me look a right idiot. My money’s on the latter!

Which just leaves the 5.25 and another chance for me to lose some more money on Judge And Jury. Follow me at your peril on this one….

Best of luck,
Gavin.

P.S. If anyone wants to sign-up for the trends until the end of the flat season I’m running a special offer that will last for the duration of Glorious Goodwood. For just one payment of £24.95 you can have every guide from Glorious Goodwood to the Breeders Cup which includes York, Newmarket, Doncaster, Ascot, Longchamps, Newbury and many, many more. The bargain of the Summer…….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Well thanks for the vote of confidence through all the comments and emails I’ve received, it’s much appreciated. I’ve been in this game long enough to know that you’ll have good and bad runs and have just about learnt to handle the swings of fortune but what I find difficult to cope with is tipping losers on the blog knowing that other people have backed them too. The missus, Gary, Matt or anyone who had the misfortune to work in a betting shop with me will all tell you that I can get a bit moody (well a lot actually) if things don’t go well and it’s the same now when backing horses and trying to keep the winners coming.

I hate tipping losers as much as I hate losing money backing them and knowing that hundreds of people are also out of pocket is a real downer. I can assure you that I back every horse I put up on the blog and share the good times and unfortunately the bad times too. I know that my luck will change back soon enough, I just hope I don’t send anyone to the poorhouse before it does. Let’s see if it’s tomorrow with this little lot……

The horse I’m relying on to bring my fortunes back up to pre-July levels is an old favourite of mine, the Sir Henry trained TWICE OVER. He takes a big drop in class to contest the 3.05 York in an attempt to get him back into the winning habit before a crack at a 3rd Champion Stakes. It’s a tactic Sir Henry used successfully on the horse in 2009. There are plenty of decent horses in the race and he does have a 3lb penalty to shoulder but with 8lb and upwards in hand on official ratings I expect we’ll see the top class Twice Over take this race before stepping back up to Group 1 company

In the big race of the day, The King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes (4.30 Ascot), we have a small but very select field of 5 runners. We can easily discount Debussy so it’s take your pick from the other 4. Our trends guide has gone with ST NICHOLAS ABBEY and he’s the one I’ll be backing although he hasn’t done me any favours so far this Season. I opposed him at Chester with Harris Tweed (jockey gave him an awful ride) and again at Epsom with Midday (jockey gave him an awful ride) but as the most likely trends winner I want him on my side this time. Nathaniel is very interesting as the sole 3yo runner and his form with Treasure Beach (and subsequent Royal Ascot romp) would have put him bang in the picture had he run in the Derby. His 12lb weight for age allowance gives him a real chance and he is my idea of the big danger in the race.

If you want a free copy of the 2 race Ascot Trends Guide please click here.

If you don’t wanrt to download the Guide here are the trends we used for The Betfair International Handicap (3.50 Ascot)

Killer stat: All of the 13 winners had a top 3 finish that season

Age

• 11 of the last 12 winners were 4 or 5yo’s (exception was a 3yo)

Betting

• Only 1 (joint) favourite has won from all 13 runnings

Class

• All of the 13 winners had won at class 3 or higher

• 10 of the 13 winners had won at class 2 or higher

• 12 of the 13 winners were rated 93 or higher

Distance

• 12 of the13 winners had won at 7f+

Previous runs

• 11 of the 13 winners ran in a handicap last time out

• All of the last 12 winners had run 3-5 times since the start of the Flat season proper

• 9 of the last 11 winners had run 5-18 times in their career

• All of the 13 winners had a top 5 finish in a 17+ runner race

• 10 of the 13 winners had a top 5 finish in a 22+ runner handicap

Interesting Fact: 12 of the 13 winners either ran at Newmarket (5 in the Bunbury Cup) or the Royal Meeting last time out

Using the strongest trends from the above we can see that a typical winner is aged 5 or under, has a win at class 3 or above, has a top 3 finish this season and has run between 3 and 5 times since March.

This gives us a very short list of 3 horses: Imperial Guest, Excellent Guest and Reignier

All three look to have an excellent chance but these big field handicaps are notoriously difficult to win and it’s no surprise to see that previous winners have all had experience in this type of contest. In fact the last 13 winners could all boast a top 5 finish in a big field handicap (17+ runners).

Reignier has a bit of class about him but has only once faced a field of this size when he finished 11th of 20 in the Bunbury Cup. If we dismiss him for this reason we are left looking at the two Guests, Imperial and Excellent.

Both are trained by George Margarson and are easy to make a case for. I have a slight preference for Excellent Guest who has finished 2nd in both the Jubilee Handicap at Royal Ascot and the Bunbury Cup at Newmarket. He’s shown he can handle the conditions of these big field handicaps and it’s difficult to see him finishing outside the top 4. But I’m splitting my stakes 60/40 on both him and Imperial Guest. The latter has yet to win at around this distance but has good form over 6f and has finished 3rd of 26, 3rd of 15, 2nd of 18, 3rd of 28 and 4th of 30 in 7f handicaps in the last 13 months. On his first run of the season he beat the Wokingham winner Deacon Blues in an 18 runner handicap and is another I can easily see being in the frame.

Selections: EXCELLENT GUEST and IMPERIAL GUEST

Finally, Gary has emailed me two horses that he really fancies on Saturday. VITZNAU goes in the 1.30 Ascot and has less than impressive recent form figures but he was a very decent horse when with Richard Hannon and has slipped to a handicap mark that is his lowest for over 4 years. The other is MISTER HUGHIE (3.40 York) who has equally poor form figures and if I’m honest I’m struggling to see what Gary has seen in him but it wouldn’t be the first time he’s pulled this type of outsider out of the bag so I’m happy to put him up on the blog for you.

Good luck everyone,
Gavin.

Oh dear. My mid-summer slump continues with a complete no-show from my four golfers and the trends failing again for the second weekend in succession. For those of you following my Summer Tipping service it’s no better as the second place finishers are piling up as are the losses. I’m sorry for anyone who’s following me at the moment and hopefully you’ll jump ship until things take a turn for the better! As the Captain of the ship I’m duty bound to stay onboard and I’ll be doing my best  to get myself out of this downswing, dodge the icebergs and steer us back into calmer waters.

It won’t be easy but I’ll stick with what has worked before and take on Ascot and Glorious Goodwood with the stats. On Friday I’ll give you the trends for the King George and The International Handicap but for now I have some of the trainers who might be worth following at Goodwood next week.

Mark Johnston

The northern trainer loves this meeting and sends a lot of horses down south to contest the five days of racing with plenty of stable entries in the same race and some of his horses even running more than once during the week. And amazingly this scattergun approach is successful as during the months of July and August since 2004 he has trained 23 winners (at least 3 a year since 2005) for an overall profit of +£21.07 to £1 level stakes on all his 195 runners.

But there’s an awful lot of losers in there and it would probably pay to be a bit more selective when backing the Johnston horses at Glorious Goodwood.

The first thing to notice is that the vast majority of his winners carried a fair chunk of weight to victory with just 1 of his 39 runners (since 2004) on 8-07 or less being successful. Looking at the stats it has been most profitable to increase this weight bar and stick to his runners that carry 9-02 or more.

Next up is distance where we find that backing his runners at either end of the scale are most unprofitable. In races over trips short of a mile and longer than 2 miles he’s managed just 7 winners from 82 runners (a strike rate of 8.5%) which show a loss of -£31.50 to level stakes.

Then there’s his outsiders. Of the 10 runners he’s sent to Goodwood since 2004 that started at 28/1 or bigger not one managed to even make the frame. He does have big priced winners here (8 at 11/1 or bigger since 2004) but they tend to be at 25/1 or shorter.

The final stat worth noting is that his more experienced runners are the most profitable to follow. Of the 51 horses he ran at Goodwood that had raced fewer than 5 times so far in their racing career only 4 managed to win here. These runners show a level stakes loss of -£26.88.

So what does all this mean?

I recommend backing the Mark Johnston runners at Glorious Goodwood that meet these 4 criteria…..

1) They are carrying 9-02 or more
2) They are running over a distance of at least 1 mile and a maximum of 2m1f
3) They are 25/1 or under in the betting
4) They have raced between 7 and 30 times previously in their career.

Since 2004 you would have backed 12 winners from 34 runners (35.3% strike rate) for a very healthy level stakes profit of +£96.45. You would also have backed at least 1 winner at every Glorious meeting since 2004.

If laying is your thing then taking on his runners carrying 8-07 or less is the most profitable angle I can find. His 1 winner from 39 runners (8 placed) show a -£26 level stakes loss.

Richard Hannon

He’s the top trainer at Goodwood and he has his fair share of winners at the Glorious meeting but trying to find a profitable way of backing his horses here is impossible. His winners are usually well fancied, as are most of his losers, which makes for a lop-sided balance sheet. The best option with Mr Hannon is take him on at the meeting and lay his runners that meet these two criteria……

1) 8/1 or bigger
2) Ridden by Richard Hughes

Of the 47 such runners at the meeting since 2004 none have managed to win and only 7 have been placed.

The third and final trainer for the meeting probably won’t provide us with too many runners next week but should he send any likely horses to the track we can expect them to run very well.

Luca Cumani

Simple concentrate on his runners at the Glorious Goodwood meeting that fulfill all 3 of the following criteria….

1) from the front 3 in the betting (including joint 3rd)
2) running over a distance of 7f - 1m7f
3) carry 8-12 or more

This would have given you 9 winners from 19 runners (47.4% strike rated) and a level stakes profit of +£28.33. You would have backed at least 1 winner at the meeting for every year since 2004.

The 19 runners finished: 1121129351112216107

Good luck,
Gavin.

 After a great run through Spring and early Summer which had seen my bankroll grow steadily it all came to a crashing halt on Saturday when I experienced the worst days punting this year. With all that great racing on show I should have just sat back and watched but unfortunately I decided to have a real bash on quite a few horses who I fancied. Amico Fitz was particularly expensive and left me scratching my head seeing as how he had finished well in front of Hitchens at Royal Ascot but there were plenty of others as well. The trends were very disappointing at Newmarket and York which meant that overall I did my brains. Sir Henry’s All Action was the only winner I backed on Saturday but I had knowhere near enough on him to cover my other losers. I’m glad this weekend is relatively quiet and there are two weeks until Glorious Goodwood as I need a break after a hectic couple of months.

The one thing I will be betting on this week though is The Open. I love betting on golf but I’m no expert and usually follow the tips in the Racing Post but between Steve Palmer and Jeremy Chapman they have selected 10 different players to bet and even at the big odds it’s probably not a profitable play to back that many runners! So I’ve read all the form guides, studied the course characteristics and taken on board everything the experts have to say on the subject to bring you my foursome……

RETIEF GOOSEN (50/1 Paddy Power and others)

The veteran South African has an enviable record in the Open with 7 top ten finishes and 10 top 15’s to his name. He also recorded a 10th place finish the last time the Open was held at Royal St George. He comes here in pretty good form too with a couple of 3rd placed finishes in the last month alone including in the St Jude Classic on the US tour. Apparently his ball striking and tee to green play is pretty decent which is a good thing for this course but he can be a bit dodgy when putting under pressure. Still at 50/1 I’m happy to take a chance his nerve holds if he gets into contention and hopefully get paid out on the each way part at least.

HENRIK STENSON (90/1 Corals)

He’s twice finished third in the Open including last year at St Andrews so he obviously knows what’s required for this type of tournament. He hasn’t won since taking the Players Championship in 2009 but has started to hit form again with two nice results in his last 2 tournaments. After finishing 23rd in the US Open he came out to finish 9th in the BMW International at the end of June. The former world number 4 had plenty of chances to win in Munich but a couple of dropped shots at the end of his 2nd round knocked him off his stride a bit. He’s definitely coming back in form and hopefully the last couple of weeks away from the circuit have been spent fine tuning his game for The Open.

CAMILLO VILLEGAS (175/1 Paddy Power)

The wind is supposed to be blowing for all 4 days down in Kent and according to the experts we need a player who can keep the ball low and have a deft touch around the greens. Apparently Villegas is just such a man whose ‘penetrating ball flight’ should stand him in good stead for the weekend. He managed a 13th place in the 2009 Open but has been largely out of form since and has missed the cut in his last two tournaments. Not the greatest way to come into the Open but 175/1 for a man who should be able to handle the conditions better than most looks appealing.

SEAN O’HAIR (250/1 Tote)

There have been plenty of shock results in recent Opens and if O’Hair were to win I think we could chalk up another one but this tall, thin American definitely has the game for Opens and has made the cut in all of the last 6. In those 6 Opens he’s managed to finish in the top 15 on three occasions with the highlight being a 7th placed finish at St Andrews. We can’t get away from the fact that he’s only an average tour player but he does hit the ball well and is pretty accurate to the green which should ensure he gives us a run for our money. At 250/1 he’s a sporting each way shout who with a little bit of luck could be challenging for some place money.

BOOKMAKER CONCESSIONS

The last time the Open was held at Royal St George’s the Claret Jug went to 750/1 outsider Ben Curtis. The bookies are obviously hoping for a similar result this week because they are falling over themselves to offer a huge array of betting concessions that mean golf punters have never had it so good. The days of 1/4 odds the first 4 are long gone………

Boylesports are paying an incredible each way 1/4 odds the first 8! BUT and it’s a big but, they are also offering the worst odds on just about every player in their betting lists. Still if you fancy an outsider getting paid if he finishes 8th isn’t too bad.

Paddypower are probably a better bet as they offer each 1/4 odds the first 7 and are closely matched with the other firms on just about every player in the betting. Also, if you haven’t already got an account with them all new customers receive treble odds on their Open fancy. So McIlroy becomes a 24/1 favourite at a 1/4 odds the first 7. Now that’s a bet!!

Bet365 are 1/4 odds the first 6 as are Ladbrokes

William Hill are only 1/4 odds the first 5 but they will give you your money back (as a free bet) if your player misses the cut by up to 3 shots. They were also top priced 10/1 McIlroy this morning but I’d imagine that has probably gone now.

Coral are paying 1/3 the odds for the first 5 and will pay you out as a winner if your golfer finishes 2nd to Rory McIlroy

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s a real TV racing bonanza today and there are so many horses I want to back that the best course of action would be to abstain. But of course that’s not going to happen!

Ihave a little bit of cash to play with today after keeping the faith in Timepiece and Sir Henry. I didn’t have as much on her as I would have liked (you never do, do you?) but at 16/1 it was enough to pay for the weekends punting and take my dad out for his birthday lunch tomorrow.

I won’t list all the horses I’m backing today as I don’t want everyone to join me in the poor house but these are the 4 I’m most confident of…..

AMICO FITZ (JULY CUP 3.35 NEWMARKET)

My whole day revolves around this horse and the massive ante-post bet I’ve had on him. If he wins the rest of the horses won’t matter as he’ll pay for the rest of this month’s punting. He was desperately unlucky with the draw at Royal Ascot as everything else looked right for him and he easily won the race on his side of the track. I’m confident he’ll finish in front of those that raced on the opposite side that day (Monsieur Chevalier, Star Witness, Elzaam and Bated Breath) and if I’m right about that then he should be in the shake up. Any rain would be of great help but Good going is okay. There was a bit of 25/1 still available this morning and at that price he’s of great each way interest.

KING OF JAZZ (BUNBURY CUP 2.55 NEWMARKET)

I tipped and backed him at big odds in a hot handicap at Haydock last time out when he finished a very decent 2nd having looked the winner entering the final furlong. That was over a mile so this drop back to 7f must be to his advantage and the winner that day, Sagramor, came out to win the Brittania Handicap on his next run meking the form rock solid. 3yo’s don’t have a great record in the race (0-13 in the last 10 years) but Richard Hannon certainly does (1 win and 2 seconds from 6 runners).

CONSTANT CONTACT (JOHN SMITHS CUP 3.15 YORK)

We’ve had the winner of this race for the last two years in our trends guides and using exactly the same analysis and stats there is only one qualifier again this year. If the trends can be believed for a 3rd successive year then Constant Contact should be a decent each way bet at 16/1.

ETERNAL HEART (2.40 YORK)

This is probably the most competitive race of the day and I must have backed at least half of the field at one time or another over the last few seasons. Tominator did us a big favour a couple of weeks back but he’s got it all to do here with a rise in the weights and a drop back in trip. I’d expect Deauville Flyer to reverse the form with him this time and he’d have a big chance at around 10/1. The Betchworth Kid is another who I’ve backed many times before including when he was totally outclassed in the Ascot Gold Cup last time out. On the best of his form he’s another with an each way chance and 33/1 could be massive but he’s not the most reliable of horses and I’d rather take a chance that Eternal Heart has overcome the exersions of his Royal Ascot 3rd in the Queens Vase. He’d been very progressive before that run and won a decent handicap up at Musselburgh. These Johnston horses are usually pretty tough to get passed and with him able to use his 3yo allowance to sneak in off bottom weight he’s going to take all the catching. Pricewise agrees with me again which means we won’t be getting the 10/1 now but 8/1 is still pretty decent.

As always, do what you like with them - back them, lay them or ignore them!

Good luck,
Gavin.

This year it’s Thursday and not Wednesday that sees the start of the July meeting at Newmarket as having begun life as a midweek meeting, that ran from Tuesday to Thursday, the course officials have decided to change things around so their July Cup is now Saturday’s centrepiece. This hasn’t gone down too well with a lot of people including those at York and Ascot who host two big races (John Smiths Cup and the Group 2 Summer Mile) on that day as well. It’s good news for us TV viewers though as there’s some cracking racing this weekend but trainers, jockeys and owners are another set of people up in arms about it as they struggle to make suitable arrangements. Apparently Richard Hannon has 92 entries made this weekend spread over umpteen meetings and a suspended stable jockey. That’s an awful lot of horse boxes and jockeys required!

Anyway I digress. Back to Newmarket where I’ve been taking a look at a few trainer stats for the month of July (2004-2010)…..

Saeed Bin Suroor

The July course is a track that Godolphin have targeted very successfully over the years and they look to have another strong team assembled for the main meeting this week. Since 2004 they’ve had an impressive 20 winners from 83 runners (24%) at the track in July but show a level stakes loss of around 16pts. That’s mainly because all of their winners have been well fancied and were 15/2 or under in the betting. All 22 of their horses that were bigger odds than this were  beaten.

Not surprisingly Frankie Dettori has ridden the majority of winners for the stable and his strike rate on those runners under 15/2 is a very decent 43% (16 winners from 37 rides).

The stables record with fillies isn’t great throughout July so I’d concentrate on backing the colts and geldings they run at Newmarket, that have Frankie onboard and are under 8/1.

Since 2004 you would have backed 15 winners from 29 such runners (24 of the 29 were placed!) and made a level stakes profit of +£23.93.

Likely runners this week for that combination are: Laatafreet (4.10 Friday), My Freedom (5.20 Friday) and Delegator (3.35 Saturday)

Mark Johnston

The Northern trainer sends quite a few horses down to Newmarket during the month of July (127 since 2004) and doesn’t do too badly either. He’s had 16 winners and a further 33 placed horses in that period and shows a level stakes profit of +£18.20.

But, it’s best to forget his runners that are over 25/1, those that are running in maidens and any of his 2yo runners. Instead concentrate on those running over a mile or further in class 1-3 races and are weighted within a stone of the top weight. Interesting Joe Fanning has won on only 1 of his 28 rides for the stable during this period so I’d ignore his mounts as well.

Doing all this would have given you 10 winners from 43 runners (23.3%) and a massive level stakes profit of +£61.37

Ones to look out for this week include: Hurricane Higgins (1.20 Thursday), Malthouse (2.25 Thursday), Dordogne (3.00 Thursday), Crown Counsel (4.10 Saturday) and runners in 5.55 Saturday.

Jeremy Noseda

At Newmarket in July Jeremy Noseda is your man!

Since 2004 he’s managed at least 2 winners every year for this month and has trained a total of 20 winners from 75 runners (26.7%). These winners show a mind blowing +£59.73 profit to level stakes.

Of these 75 runners, 9 carried 9-06 or more and only 1 managed to be placed. All of his winners were aged 2-4yo with the 4 horses aged 5 and 6 all running unplaced.

So simply by backing all his 2-4yo runners carrying 9-05 or less you would have enjoyed 20 winners from 64 runners (31.2%) and a LSP of £70.73.

His likely runners this week include: Roman Soldier (1.50 Thursday), Club Oceanic (2.25 Thursday), Instance (1.20 Friday), Illaunglass (2.25 Friday), Net Whizz (3.35 Friday) and Galiando (4.10 Saturday)

Good luck,
Gavin.

Saturday foursome.

I had just the one winner from my 4 runners last week but as it was 25/1 we didn’t do too badly. Hopefully Tom Segal from the Racing Post Pricewise column isn’t reading my trends guides or blog this week as he rather ruined my 50/1 coup last Saturday.

By posting this on Friday I’m hoping it will enable us to get the best prices possible…..

2.35 SANDOWN

The form of Dunno’s win over course and distance on Brigadier Gerard night couldn’t have worked out better with the 2nd winning since (Leviathan reapposes 1lb worse off for 2 1/2 beating) and the 3rd (Julienas) going on to take The Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot but he does need softish ground and I’m not sure he’s going to get that here. For me the one to be on is William Haggas’s SOORAAH who was stitched up by the draw in the Hunt Cup but was well clear of those that raced on the far side that day. Before that she had looked all over the winner at Ascot but was beaten a neck by Law Of The Range who has since gone on to score again comfortably at Sandown. She’s won over course and distance already and any firming of the ground will suit this one. 7/1 is the biggest price available now and that looks a good bet to me. I reckon this one will end up at 5/1 or under so be quick.

3.25 HAYDOCK Old Newton Cup

The handicapper gave Sirvino a real chance last weekend by dropping him to 89 and the horse took his chance with both hooves to record an easy 7 length win. That didn’t go down too well at the handicapper HQ because he got the hump and shoved him back up 11lb. I doubt he’ll relent for some time now. Even with McNiff claiming 5lb he’s bound to struggle in this much more competitive race off his revised mark. Lowly weighted 4 and 5yo’s have dominated this race and so has Luca Cumani! His last 6 runners in the race produced 3 winners and 2 places so we have to give the utmost repect to BOURNE who represents the stable this year. He didn’t seem to act around Epsom last time and will be more at home on this track as he had won his previous race here. 8/1 is the biggest price on offer as I write this and that looks fair to me.

 4.30 HAYDOCK

Gary and I piled into BARNEY McGREW last Friday night and he would have been a big tip on this blog on the Saturday but for the fact he was withdrawn early that morning. Having backed him at 22/1 and seen his price crash to 12’s that was a bit disappointing but hopefully we can do it all again tonight! His recent form figures look really bad but don’t let that put you off because it simply means his rating has plummeted and we should get a bigger price. This time last year he had won a Group 3 race and was racing off a rating in the 100’s. This Winter in Dubai he was finishing 3rd to Prohibit over an inadequate 5f. His current rating of 92 looks a gift from the handicapper as he hasn’t ran from a mark this low for nearly 3 years. You can make plenty of excuses for his recent form figures but there won’t be any this time. He’s got his favoured 6f, he’s got his good-firm ground, he’s rated just 92, the stable obviously know he’s in good form and William Buick has been booked for the ride. Everything is set for a big run at a, hopefully, big price.

 4.50 SANDOWN

DIMENSION was our trends selection for the Britannia Handicap and although I fancied him that day I was a little worried about him seeing out the mile. So it was nice to see him entered for this 7f handicap which should be a lot less competitive than that big mile handicap at the Royal Ascot meeting and run over a more suitable distance. The booking of Kieren Fallon is a plus and he’s 1lb lower than when making his handicap debut a month ago so again I expect a big run from him.

As always do what you like with those - back them, lay them or ignore them!

I’m going to do my usual bet of 4 singles and a smaller stake each way Lucky 15.

———

SUMMER TIPS

Over a 1/4 of all blog readers signed up for my FREE Summer Tips service within the first 24 hours which was quite incredible and I guess it means you’re all looking forward to Monday when the Service officially starts.

For anyone who wants to make an early start though, here is the Summer Jumps TTS Guide which I will be using to make the National Hunt selections from. There is no NH racing tomorrow but Market Rasen on Sunday has 4 runners…….

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/summerjumpsTTS2011.pdf

It’s another 100% completely FREE download and anyone can get direct access to it with just one click. NO DETAILS REQUIRED WHATSOEVER. Even if you don’t want to sign up for the Summer Tips Service you can have the guide for FREE.

The daily emails will begin MONDAY 4th JULY and if you haven’t already signed up, there’s still plenty of time. It’s 100% FREE with just your name and email address required. I already have this information but I need to create a separate list from the blog post notification list so those who don’t want to have the daily emails won’t get them.  I hope that makes sense. Anyway, if you want the daily tips simply sign up below and then click the confirmation email you should receive shortly afterwards……..