Archive for June 29th, 2011

Bash the bookies. Round 2……

Wednesday, June 29th, 2011

The family and I spent a wonderful afternoon watching Polo in the Castle (Cardiff) last Sunday on what has to have been the hottest day of the year so far. I’ve never been to a Polo match before and it’s not something I’ve ever really thought about doing but courtesy of one of the mums at Dylan’s school we got some free tickets so thought we’d give it a bash. I’m really glad we did though because having a picnic and drinking champagne in the shadows of the castle was a fantastic way to spend an afternoon and Polo looks a very enjoyable sport. If only I could ride a horse I think I’d give it a go. We even did the stomping of the divots in between chukkas which is something Sam’s always wanted to do ever since watching Julia Roberts do it in Pretty Woman.

Anyway, whilst basking in the sun I finally realised that Summer is officially here and I better make the most of it before September, and Autumn, arrives and I’m off selling calendars again. It’s time to make some money…….

Last Summer I ran a collection of bash-the-bookies guides which covered a number of different betting angles and overall was quite successful (we showed a profit on the guides and gave a 33/1 winner on the very last day of the service!). I’m going to take a similar approach to my betting this year but with the slight difference being I’m going to give it all away FREE to anyone who wants to follow me.

It’s all going to start next Monday 4th July and run until the end of the month. At that time I’ll then review our position before deciding whether to carry on through August. I’ll operate it as a daily email service with a list of any runners for that day sent out each morning before noon. As I said it will be completely free but you will need to sign up so I have your email address to send the daily selections out to. I know I already have this information but I need to separate those who want the service into another list from those who don’t.

AND YES, IT REALLY WILL BE 100% NO CHARGE!

So what will you be getting for your no-money?

All Weather jockeys - It’s actually been going since April 5th when we kicked off with a 14/1 winner. It’s had its ups and downs but overall we’re still in profit which is no mean feat as we are tracking the results at starting price only. All the selections for each day will be sent out each morning.

Summer Jumps TTS - I’ve taken a look at all the tracks holding Summer Jumps meeting this year and highlighted the trainer(s) to follow for each one. The guide will be available to download on Monday but I’ll be working any runners out for you and including them in the daily email.

Nag Trends Ratings - We’ve got some superb racing coming up this month with the Newmarket July meeting, Ascot’s King George and Glorious Goodwood the undoubted highlights. We’ll be covering them all (and more) in our trends guides where you may or may not know we also run a ratings service. They have been very profitable this year and have highlighted some big priced winners (40/1) and places (50/1). I’ll include the top rated horse for any race we cover in the daily email.

Horses To Follow - As most of you know I like my lists! If I see a horse that I think looks unlucky, needs a step up or down in trip, needs different ground conditions or simply looks worth following I write them all down in a spreadsheet. As they win or get become disappointing I cross them off and forget about them. I currently have a list of over 30 horses that I’ve noted down and am eagerly awaiting their next run. I’ll give you the list and let you know when they’re running in the same daily email as all the rest of the runners.

Gavin & Gary’s tips - If we fancy something running that day whether it’s over jumps, on the AW or turf from a lowly seller at Musselburgh to a Group 1 race at Glorious Goodwood we’ll let you know.

Ante-post picks - Once the declarations are in for Goodwood we’ll be trying to sort out the Sussex Stakes, Goodwood Mile and the Stewards Cup.

You’ll get them all delivered to your inbox in one simple email, every day by 12 noon. ABSOLUTELY FREE!

Sign up for the free email service in the box below………

Summer Selections 2011

Your Name:
Your E-Mail:

 

 And for those of you who can’t wait to start, here are a few horses I’ve backed this morning in the ante-post markets……

JULY CUP - NEWMARKET (SATURDAY 9TH JULY)

I’m glad to report that AMICO FITZ has an entry in the race and I’m even happier to report that he’s currently 33/1 with some firms. This is definitely a price worth taking as his run in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot was much better than his finishing position implies. He was totally done-up by the draw and would have made the frame at the very least if he raced on the far side that day. Obviously being ante-post there are a couple of worries - he might not run and he might not get his favoured ground but at 33/1 I’m willing to take that chance.

If he runs on good ground (or softer) I’d be confident of him finishing in front of all those that beat him at Ascot.

JOHN SMITHS CUP - YORK (SATURDAY 9TH JULY)

This has been a very good race for the trends as we’ve had the last 2 winners of the race (Sirvino and Wigmore Hall) so I’ve taken the stats and applied them to the current list of the 53 declared horses to see if we can make it 3 from 3…..

Age

  • All of the last 15 winners were 3-5yo’s

  • 6yo’s and older have had just 4 places from 55 runners in the last 11 years (although they finished 2nd-3rd-4th last year)

  • The last winning 6yo was 38 years ago

Class

  • All of the last 13 winners were rated 90-105

Distance

  • All of the last 15 winners had their last run over 1m – 1m2f

  • 11 of the last 12 winners had a top 2 finish over 1m 2f (10/12 had won over the trip)

Previous Runs

  • 14 of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 6 last time out

  • All of the last 14 winners had a top 3 finish that season

  • 12 of the last 14 winners had won already that season

  •  14 of the last 15 winners had run a maximum of 4 times that season (2008 winner had run 5 times)

Which I make, leaves a not-so-shortlist of 13.

But, as 10 of the last 12 winners had yet to win above a Class 3 grade race we can narrow this down to 7

I think it’s highly unlikely that at least 2 of these 7 will make the cut as they are well down in the weights so we are left with 5:

Constant Contact, Desert Romance, Prince of Johanne, Cai Shen and Fanditha

Cai Shen looks the obvious one after his second in the Brittania Handicap at Royal Ascot but t the prices I quite like the chances of FANDITHA who belied her odds last time out to give Principal Role a fright in a Listed race up at Newcastle. She’s been raised 11lb for that but is able to run off her old mark of 90 as the entries closed for this race before that apparent improvement in form. She’s previously been outclassed behind St Nicholas Abbey at Chester but has some good win and placed form in lower grade handicaps. At 20/1 I’d say she’s worth an interest.

CORAL ECLIPSE - SANDOWN (SATURDAY 2ND JULY)

After the success of my Van De Wheil ratings at Royal Ascot (2 winners, Rewilding and Fame And Glory, from 4 races) I thought I’d take a look at this weekends big race, The Coral Eclipse. The ratings came out like this…..

WORKFORCE 93

SNOW FAIRY 71

SO YOU THINK 61

CAPE BLANCO 45

ALEXANDER POPE 40

CONFRONT 35

JAN VERMEER 30

SRI PUTRA 23

The current form of the Stoute stable is a major concern here (see below*) and Poet has done nothing in his last two runs to enhance the form of the Brigadier Gerard race but there’s no denying Workforce is a class act and he may be the one to ingnite the Stoute stable into a Summer frenzy of winners. With The July Cup meeting at Newmarket and Glorious Goodwood coming up in the next month there’s still a lot to play for this Season.

* The Stoute stable have had just 19 winners this season (from 113 runners) at a strike rate of 17%. His last 29 runners have all been beaten and these include 9 beaten favourites in the last 10 days alone.

I’m really looking forward to the racing this weekend as there are some excellent races scattered around the country. There should be plenty of opportunities to try and nab another big priced winner. I’ll be back on Friday with my picks to try and get in before Pricewise takes the gloss off any winners we may have….

Good luck,

Gavin.

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