The family and I spent a wonderful afternoon watching Polo in the Castle (Cardiff) last Sunday on what has to have been the hottest day of the year so far. I’ve never been to a Polo match before and it’s not something I’ve ever really thought about doing but courtesy of one of the mums at Dylan’s school we got some free tickets so thought we’d give it a bash. I’m really glad we did though because having a picnic and drinking champagne in the shadows of the castle was a fantastic way to spend an afternoon and Polo looks a very enjoyable sport. If only I could ride a horse I think I’d give it a go. We even did the stomping of the divots in between chukkas which is something Sam’s always wanted to do ever since watching Julia Roberts do it in Pretty Woman.

Anyway, whilst basking in the sun I finally realised that Summer is officially here and I better make the most of it before September, and Autumn, arrives and I’m off selling calendars again. It’s time to make some money…….

Last Summer I ran a collection of bash-the-bookies guides which covered a number of different betting angles and overall was quite successful (we showed a profit on the guides and gave a 33/1 winner on the very last day of the service!). I’m going to take a similar approach to my betting this year but with the slight difference being I’m going to give it all away FREE to anyone who wants to follow me.

It’s all going to start next Monday 4th July and run until the end of the month. At that time I’ll then review our position before deciding whether to carry on through August. I’ll operate it as a daily email service with a list of any runners for that day sent out each morning before noon. As I said it will be completely free but you will need to sign up so I have your email address to send the daily selections out to. I know I already have this information but I need to separate those who want the service into another list from those who don’t.

AND YES, IT REALLY WILL BE 100% NO CHARGE!

So what will you be getting for your no-money?

All Weather jockeys - It’s actually been going since April 5th when we kicked off with a 14/1 winner. It’s had its ups and downs but overall we’re still in profit which is no mean feat as we are tracking the results at starting price only. All the selections for each day will be sent out each morning.

Summer Jumps TTS - I’ve taken a look at all the tracks holding Summer Jumps meeting this year and highlighted the trainer(s) to follow for each one. The guide will be available to download on Monday but I’ll be working any runners out for you and including them in the daily email.

Nag Trends Ratings - We’ve got some superb racing coming up this month with the Newmarket July meeting, Ascot’s King George and Glorious Goodwood the undoubted highlights. We’ll be covering them all (and more) in our trends guides where you may or may not know we also run a ratings service. They have been very profitable this year and have highlighted some big priced winners (40/1) and places (50/1). I’ll include the top rated horse for any race we cover in the daily email.

Horses To Follow - As most of you know I like my lists! If I see a horse that I think looks unlucky, needs a step up or down in trip, needs different ground conditions or simply looks worth following I write them all down in a spreadsheet. As they win or get become disappointing I cross them off and forget about them. I currently have a list of over 30 horses that I’ve noted down and am eagerly awaiting their next run. I’ll give you the list and let you know when they’re running in the same daily email as all the rest of the runners.

Gavin & Gary’s tips - If we fancy something running that day whether it’s over jumps, on the AW or turf from a lowly seller at Musselburgh to a Group 1 race at Glorious Goodwood we’ll let you know.

Ante-post picks - Once the declarations are in for Goodwood we’ll be trying to sort out the Sussex Stakes, Goodwood Mile and the Stewards Cup.

You’ll get them all delivered to your inbox in one simple email, every day by 12 noon. ABSOLUTELY FREE!

Sign up for the free email service in the box below………

2.40 6F PADDY POWER SPRINT

Bet365 are paying an incredible each way 1/4 odds the first 6 in this race and that is too much of an incentive for me to pass over. Unfortunately it’s also one of the hardest sprint handicaps I’ve ever seen with an amazing number of runners well up to Listed and Group class.

And it’s one of these types of horse that I fancy to give us a run for our money.

GLOR NA MARA has by far the best form in the race and if returning to anything like his best could turn this race into a procession. Last season when racing as a 2yo he ran 2nd to Zoffany (beaten 1/2 length), 2nd to Pathfork (beaten 1 1/2 lengths), 2nd to Dingle View (beaten a shorthead) and 3rd to Frankel (beaten 5 lengths). After showing that level of form it’s incredible to see that he is still a maiden! That might be down to the fact that in his 11 career runs he’s never dropped below Listed class, not even on his debut. So we know he’s oozing class it’s just a case of whether he can get back to his old form.

I think the drop in class and the return to 6f could be the key here. In 6 of his last 7 runs he raced over 7f and never really seemed to see out the trip. The trainer obviously thought so too because he ran him over 5f last time but he was unsurprisingly outpaced behind the very speedy Inxile and could never land a blow on that one. 6 furlongs looks the ideal trip, the going will be fine and since his second to Dingle View he’s come down 11lb in the ratings.

It’s asking a lot to try and pick the winner of a 30 runner handicap but I’d be surprised if we don’t at least get a good run for our money.

Just remember to back him with bet365 for those 6 places!

I had a lovely 50/1 tip lined up for you all in the Northumberland Plate (3.05 Newcastle) today but unfortunately things haven’t quite worked out as I had hoped. After doing my trends ratings on the race I noticed that TOMINATOR scored well and he was a big price, in fact with Tactician now a non-runner he is top rated with me. Being a big feature handicap I felt sure that at least 1 firm would be paying each way the first 5 so I decided to wait until this morning before tipping him. 

Double whammy!

Firstly, there are no firms paying the first 5 and secondly Pricewise has tipped it and the 50/1 is no longer available. William Hills’ are holding him at 33/1 at the moment but I doubt that will last too much longer as he is now generally a 20-25/1 shot with all the other firms.

He certainly didn’t deserve to be a 50/1 outsider as some of his form this Season has been pretty decent. He looks certain to appreciate this step up to 2 miles and as long as it doesn’t get too soft he should run well. I just hope he doesn’t finish 5th!

3.40 Newcastle

I’m waiting for some firm ground to back Camerooney in one of these big 7f-1m handicaps so I’m swerving him today but he remains on my list as a horse of interest. When he gets his ground he could pop up at a massive price. Webbow is another horse I’ve been following for quite some time but although he runs well everytime he sets hoof on a racecourse he doesn’t win that often and another placed finish is probably what he’ll manage again this afternoon. The race that Xilerator won over course and distance last time by 5 lengths has a dodgy look to me as he raced on the opposite side to the main pack that day and it was a massive step up on anything he had done previously. Newcastle can be very draw dependent sometimes and throw up results like that one which don’t work out next time.

So I’m going to side with a horse that looks like he’s being laid out for a race, CAPTAIN RAMIUS, and hope that it’s this one. After running well in a decent Chester handicap, despite being hampered at a crucial point, he took a slight drop in class for a Newmarket class 3 handicap where he carried a big weight. The hood came off late, he started slowly and he was pushed along to get back in touch with the field early on. Despite that he made good progress and finished well to take 4th at the finish beaten just over a length. This softish ground should be perfect and with the reliable Jim Crowley onboard today I can see it all working out for the horse and jockey at 12/1.

3.20 Newmarket

All of the last 10 winners had won over 7f
All of the last 10 winners had won a Listed or Group race (7/10 over 7f)
9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4yo+
Only 1 penalised winner has won in the last decade.

The race that The Cheka won last time out may be the key to the race and his previous short head second to Lolly For Dolly looks even better after that ones win at Royal Ascot in a Group 2 but he has a 5lb penalty to shoulder here and that could prove his undoing. With 3yo’s having a pretty poor record in the race (1 win since 1995 from 27 runners) I’ll overlook Free Handicap winner Pausanias to side with FLAMBEAU whose 4 1/2 length defeat of Field Of Dreams at Leicester in April looks excellent form.

4.00 Windsor

Berling’s 2nd to Fox Hunt at Epsom looks pretty good now but you always have to worry about him veering across the track especially when racing right handed. He does look to have the best recent form by some way though and he’s a worthy favourite. If Sirvino can recapture just some of his old form he would be a big danger here and as he’s now 3lb lower than when taking the John Smiths Cup in 2009 today could well be his day. However I’m going with LIFE AND SOUL who for some reason just didn’t show his true form at Royal Ascot. He wouldn’t be the first horse that you could say that about and he’s better judged on his 4th at Epsom on his previous start when just behind Berling. He has a 2lb pull for that meeting and it should be close between them both if the favourite were to stick to a straight line. That’s not guaranteed and the 7/1 on Life and Soul makes more appeal to me.

Remember as always: Do with them what you will - back them, lay them or ignore them!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Well that’s it for another year and having given myself a couple of days to ponder the greatest horse race meeting in the world here are my thoughts on Royal Ascot 2011……

My favourite result…..

Prohibit winning the Kings Stand was my best result of the week and following on from Canford Cliffs got my meeting off to a flyer. It was interesting to read the trainers comments afterwards as he said that Prohibit doesn’t get a yard further than 5f and he won’t be campaigned over further. As I have been quite vocal in my opinion that the trainer should step him up in trip after his running on finishes all season it just shows that I’m not always right! (who’d have thought?). All he needed was a fast run 5 furlongs which is something he definitely got on Tuesday thanks to Overdose and Star Witness.

My least favourite result….

It was the other Group 1 sprint on the Saturday that got me in a right old tizz. In the Golden Jubilee I really fancied Amico Fitz and had backed him at 50/1 the day before. Even the fact that Pricewise had tipped it did little to dampen my spirits going into the race. Having seen high numbers dominate all the races over the straight course (Kings Stand winner drawn 14, Hunt Cup winner 24, Brittania winner 23 and in the Buckingham Palace draw 28 beat 29) I never for one moment thought that his draw would be an issue. Wrong! Despite winning the stands side race by 4 lengths he was still 3 lengths behind those on the far side as those drawn middle to low now had the advantage. Flipping annoying. The only consolation was James Fanshawe won the race and I had a small saver on his runner.

I really hope Fitzy comes back for the July Cup (probable) where the ground is good to soft (doubtful) and he’s 50/1 again (highly unlikely)!

The best rides of the week…

Much as it pains me to say this I thought Jamie ‘frank’ Spencer’s ride on Fame And Glory was really good (but out of principle I’m not giving him the award for the best of the week) and obviously Jim Crowley on Prohibit was exceptional but the ride that wins for me is another one that caused me great pain, although this time it was purely financial. Having earmarked Solar Sky for the Queens Vase when he made his debut way back in April I backed him accordingly and was jumping for joy as he hit the front as they entered the final furlong. Unfortunately, Silverstre De Sousa had other ideas and gave Namibian a superb ride to get back up and spoil the party. I can’t believe that only Mark Johnston seems to be aware how good this jockey really is. Why De Souza isn’t riding for one of the big ‘Southern’ stables is a complete mystery to me.

The worst rides of the week…..

Where to start?

Frankie on Rewilding is probably a good a place as any. Yes he won. Yes he beat the so called ‘best horse on the planet’ and Yes he timed his run to perfection. But hitting the horse 24 times in the last furlong when the world is watching was totally unacceptable. Dettori seems to have that air about him now that he can do what he pleases as he’s everyone’s favourite, the lovable Italian, ’funtime Frankie’. But he better watch out because it won’t take much more of his recent antics for his halo to start slipping. First he drops his hands on Blue Bunting in the Oaks to finish 4th instead of 3rd (thousands of Placepots go crashing because he can’t be bothered to do his job properly) and now it’s thrash the living daylights out of a horse to get up and win. There will be plenty of new racing fans watching Ascot for the first time and they won’t have liked seeing a top jockey hit a horse with that kind of frequency. What punishment does he get? A total of 19 days holiday. I bet multi miilionaire Dettori will be crying into his Pina Colada on some golden Dubai beach….

How about this for an idea to solve the whip problem? If a jockey is found guilty of misuse of the whip instead of banning the jockey for X amount of days, how about banning him from carrying a whip for X amount of rides. He’d have to compete against other jockeys without a stick and owners and trainers will have to decide whether to put the jockey up on their horses carrying such a handicap. Just a thought.

Next up is Tom Queally. I like Queally a lot but a couple of his recent rides have been less than decent and he needs to start showing a little more patience. It all started with Midday in the Coronation Cup where he went for home far too early and allowed St Nicholas Abbey time to get balanced and to run him down. I thought he might have learnt from that but obviously not as he did it again on Frankel and then again on Chachamaidee in the Windsor Forest. I don’t want to go back to the dark days when Richard Quinn was riding for the Sir Henry Cecil stable and everything he rode had to get up on the line to cheekily win by a short-head but neither do I want to see the stable jockey playing his cards well before the final furlong. Somewhere in the middle, the Kieren Fallon approach, will do fine.

It wasn’t a bad ride as he did everything he could to win the race and was beaten by the better horse but Olivier Peslier put up 2lb overweight in the opening race and that is outrageous in a Group 1 race where the smallest factors can make the difference between winning and losing. I doubt Mr Head was too happy about that.

But for me the very worst piece of jockeymanship seen all week was William Buick’s ride on Zigato in the Ascot Stakes. The race was 2m4f long and should have given him plenty of time to get into the right position but he decided that he’d wait for 2m2f before starting to think about when to make a challenge. By this time the winner was going for home and Zigato was finding a wall of horses in front of him. Who’d have thought that in a 20 runner field some of the front runners would weaken quickly and cause a few traffic problems? Well everyone except William Buick it seems. According to the Racing Post he was 11th at the furlong pole! When he finally found an opening he thundered home but was never going to make up the ground on the leaders. Simply awful.

Horses to take from the meeting….

The obvious ones are Frederick Engels (his form seemed to be boosted in every 2yo race), first four home in the Jersey (I reckon this race will produce a lot of winners), Brown Panther (will prove himself Group standard) and Nathaniel (looks tailormade for the Leger) but here are a few less obvious ones…..

Fareer. He ran off top weight in the Hunt Cup where he finished 8th but watching the race I noted him making excellent progress before the furlong pole having been switched around the field. He was going as well as anything at that time but couldn’t quicken as well as the eventual winners. On this run he seems to have lost none of his talent and I reckon he can pick up one of these big handicaps before the end of the season and he might even be worth a try dropping back to 7f.

Chachamaidee. With a more patient ride, a drop back in trip or both she should be able to nab a decent fillies/mares Group race.

Macs Power. I hope you all read the Jockey and Trainers guide I did for Ascot and noted the strong shout I gave to all Fanshawe runners. After winning the Golden Jubilee at 25/1 with his first runner of the week he then went and won both races in the Wokingham. Deacon Blues won the battle on the far side and took the race while Macs Power, though only managing 8th, was a clear first home on the stands side. Compensation awaits when he gets the luck of the draw.

Duncan. He’s not the most reliable of horses and has been called a few names in the past but he travelled strongly for a long way in the Gold Cup before finding the last half mile a step too far. I reckon he can still be a Cup horse at around 2 miles and something like the Goodwood or Doncaster version could be more to his liking.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at how my punting went last week.

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s been a tough week for me personally with some real highs (Tuesday and Prohibit), some real lows (Solar Sky) and a heck of a lot of big priced placed horses. I’m just about in front after 4 days but with a really tough final card and soft going that may be about to change. These are 4 horses I’m hoping can restore the Priestley fortunes to the levels they were on Tuesday night…..

3.05 Ascot: POET

He loves soft ground and ran a great race for me at Sandown in the Brigadier Gerard when just worn down by Workforce at big odds. He’s since run down the field in France when trying the same front running tactics that were used at Sandown but he had got himself worked up in the stalls before the race and I’m inclined to give him another chance on ground he’s sure to appreciate.

3.45 Ascot: AMICO FITZ

This is a horse that has crept in under the radar and has been largely ignored although the 50/1 that was available midweek has long since gone on him. Trained in France his form doesn’t look brilliant but when he gets the right conditions he’s pretty useful. He wants 6f and good or softer ground. He’s run 8 times under these conditions and has finished 21211110 with the last run coming in a Group 1 in Canada where he faded in the last 1/2 furlong. From a decent draw I reckon he’s a great each way bet. William Hills are currently 25/1 but I doubt that will last…….

4.25 Ascot: PASTORAL PLAYER

It will come as no surprise to regular readers that I’m all over Pastoral Player here and I have a nice each way double running onto him from Prohibit on the Tuesday. If he wins I’m off to Vegas for a few days…….

5.35 Ascot: NOT TIL MONDAY

2 miles 6 furlongs and likely to be run in a bog. This is going to be one long slog for both horse and rider and we’ll see them strung out like washing.  It’s without doubt the weakest race of the week and is usually fought out by a mixture of NH plodders, maidens, handicappers and the odd decent horse who is just short of Group class. In other words not a race to get too involved in! But it’s also the last race of the meeting and the get-out-stakes for those who haven’t done so well over the 5 days.

We could easily get a shock result in this race and although I think Overturn is the most likely winner I’m going to try my luck with Not Til Monday who has form in bog like conditions and is a winning hurdler over 2m4f. He has an awful lot to find on the book but there are some fancied, classier horses in this race who won’t like the ground or the distance and the selection might just be able to grind it out. Kieren Fallon is booked which is never a bad thing and at around 20/1 may surprise.

Good luck whatever you’re backing today,
Gavin.

A 14/1 winner from 3 yesterday wasn’ too bad a way to start the week and certainly made my day a profitable one. 

Here are three more for today……

3.05 Music Show

She’s a genuine Group 1 horse who has run some fine races in defeat recently. This drop back in grade to Group 2 and the drop back in trip to a mile should make her competitive and 9/1 looks a big price to me.

I wish there were 8 runners in the 3.45 as Jan Vermeer looks big at around 50’s but So You Think/Planteur look to have the placings in that race sewn up so I’ll move on to the Hunt Cup.

4.25 Invincible Soul

Gary tipped this one for us last week and the more I look at it the more I like his chances. It got a low draw which looks a negative after yesterday’s results but there weren’t any 30 runner races then and they are bound to split into two groups here so we could end up with either end of the draw having the advantage. He’s been quietly supported all week but is still a decent price at around 20/1 (ew 1/4 odds first 5!)

5.35 Mortitia

66/1 with Sporting Bet so only small stakes needed for this one. You might think I’ve lost my marbles backing this one but I’ve been waiting for her to step up to a mile after seeing her run well on her seasonal debut in the Fred Darling over 7f. Her next run was over 6f which was too sharp and her last run saw her make the running which she didn’t like at all. A mile handicap with less agressive tactics makes me feel she can run well at a big price.

Of the 6 lays I gave out yesterday only Frankel defied the trends so let’s try again…..

7) JERSEY STAKES - 14 of the last 15 winners had run within the last 7 weeks
Strong Suit had his last run 60 days ago

WINDSOR FOREST - The last 6 winners all ran in a Group race last time out
Seta won a Listed race on her last start and has been beaten in every Group race she’s ever contested.

9) PRINCE OF WALES - All of the last 15 winners finished in the top 4 last time out
Twice Over finished 6th in the Lockinge on his last start

10) ROYAL HUNT CUP - All of the last 12 winners were rated 91 or higher
Point North is rated 87

11) QUEEN MARY - All of the last 15 winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts
Vocational has finished 2nd in her last 2 runs

12) SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP - All of the last 12 winners had only raced at 6f+ throughout their career
Emmas Gift started off her career in 5f maidens

If you’re backing each way in the Hunt Cup make sure your bookie is paying the first 5!

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s a beautiful morning here in South Wales, I’ve been up since 6 with my Racing Post and there’s less than 3 hours until the start of the best 5 days racing anywhere in the world. Life is good.

All I need now is a few winners! I can’t really disclose what I’ll be backing today as most are the Trends horses and it wouldn’t be fair to anyone who has bought the Guide but there are a few non-trends horses which I’ll also be investing on and are worth mentioning.

Prohibit (3.05)

I think the strong pace that is bound to happen here will play right into this strong finishers hands and at around 14/1 may be a decent each way bet.

Australia Day (5.00)

I’ve heard plenty of whispers about this one and apparently this has been his target for some time. National hunt trainers have done well in this race over the years and he’s another who may be each way value at around 16/1.

Bay Leyf (5.35)

This one’s a massive price (40/1) and I’ll be backing him each way on the strength of the trainers record in the race and at the meeting. He won the race a couple of years with a 100/1 shot and has also provided the runner up twice. His runner last year ran 4th at 10/1 having led until the last 50 yards.

Before you go dashing off to back these with your regular bookmaker take a minute to check what offers they have going today. A lot of the online firms are paying the first 4 home in both 2yo races today (4.25 & 5.35) which is a great concession given the numbers of runners involved. The 5.00 is another race that most firms have enhanced the each way terms on and are paying the first 5. Make sure if you’re backing each way that you get the best odds AND the best place terms.

It only takes a couple of minutes to open a new account with an online bookmaker and nearly all of them also offer free bets when you sign up.

Check out the latest odds, offers and place terms here …… http://odds.geegeez.co.uk/

It’s win - win!

———

I have some trends that may help those who prefer to lay a horse or two….

1) QUEEN ANNE - The last 26 winners of this race were aged either 4 or 5.
Goldikova is now a 6yo

2) KINGS STAND - All of the last 15 winners finished in the top 6 last time out
Aussie speedster Star Witness was a well beaten 7th behind super-sprinter Black Caviar on his last start

3) ST JAMES PALACE STAKES - All of the last 14 winners of this race had their last run in either France or Ireland
Frankel had his last run in the English Guineas at Newmarket (the last winner to come direct from Newmarket was in the mid 70’s)

4) COVENTRY STAKES - All of the last 13 winners won their previous race
Everescent was runner up in the Listed 2yo race at Epsom last time out

5) ASCOT STAKES HANDICAP - 13 of the last 14 winners were rated 82 - 93
Last years winner Junior has 10lb more to carry this year and is now rated 95

6) WINDSOR CASTLE STAKES - All of the last 12 winners had raced between 1 and 3 times in their career so far.
Magic City has run 4 times already this Season

—————

And for those who like to back them……

From the Trainer and Jockey Stats I printed last week it seems we’re relying mainly on the Hughes / Hannon combination or with Aiden O’Brien ….

Canford Cliffs (2.30)
Monsuier Chevallier (3.05)
Dubawi Gold (3.45)
Trumpet Major (4.25)
Magic City (5.35)

Cape Blanco (2.30)
Power (4.25)

Hopefully there should be a couple in that list who run well.

———

And finally, this is the Placepot perm I’ve done today…..

1-2 / 2-9-10 / 4 / 10-17-23 / 11-12-17 / 3-4-9-17 = 216 bets

Good luck whatever you decide to back,
Gavin.

Whilst browsing through the racing books at highstakes bookshop I came across a book that was rehashing a horse racing system from the late 70’s early 80’s by a gentleman called Che Van De Wheil. Now, the ‘more mature’ readers may be familiar with this name but until I entered his name into Google  over the weekend I wasn’t. But boy oh boy that certainly opened up a can of worms as it seems he’s been the central figure in arguments, heated debates and slanging matches from newspaper columns and letters to the latest online forums ever since he published his ’system’. I’ve never seen so much anger and hostility from contributers in any other discussion on horse racing (both for and against his system) and so I decided to investigate. What could he possibly have written that stirred up so much controversy?

Please bear in mind that I’ve only just come across Van De Wheil and have only been reading up on him for the last couple of days so I’m certainly no expert but I think the general gist of the story goes something like this…..

In the late 70’s there was a racing publication called the Sporting Cronicle Handicap Book (now known as Raceform Update) which had a letters page called sports forum. Around 1978 Van De Wheil proposed in a letter that readers may like to use this page as a way of exchanging racing systems with each other. That was greeted warmly and systems were exchanged but another reader suggested that Van De Wheil should also offer his system to readers as “When passing round the hat it is normal to throw in some silver yourself, to encourge others and to get a good return”

Which is what he did and where all the trouble began. (Another letter on the subject referred to The Flying Dutchman in its content which Van De Wheil then also came to be known as.)

From what I can gather the main problem is that his system is not really a system at all it’s more a method of picking horses which is subject to all sorts of interpretation and involves a lot of personal opinion. Some people have been able to use it well and pick loads of winners and others have failed and therefore labelled it as rubbish. It’s a real marmite method with two distinct camps - love it or hate it! What they do seem to agree on though is that they love nothing more than to squabble with each other as to who is right. The fact that VDW claimed a strike rate of 80% with this method probably didn’t help. He also seemed to do a lot of after-timing with his selection examples which never goes down well and also backed more than one horse in each race. The dutching Flying Dutchman!

So what is the ‘method’?

Again I’ve only been reading up on the subject for a short time and if you google his name you’ll see that there’s a lot of stuff out there on the subject. Some of the forum threads are 100’s and 100’s comments long. I’ve ordered a couple of books but they haven’t arrived yet.

But from what I’ve learnt so far he was advocating a system that concentrated on the best race of the day and took into account recent form and a class rating for each horse. He argued that no system could work without the class of the horse being taken into account. He came up with a system for calculating this as dividing the amount of prizemoney won by the number of wins a horse had had in its career. Sounds fair enough.

For recent form he simply added the last three form figures together to produce the ratings number e.g. if a horse had finished 138 on it’s last 3 runs it had a rating of 12 (anything over 9th counted as 10). This also sounds fair but obviously here a smaller figure is better i.e. 3 is the best you can have (form 111) and usually ratings are better the higher you have.

He also used two other ratings when making his decision that is probably the main cause of all the hoohah as he never disclosed what these ratings were, only that the closer these ratings were to each other the better. Very mysterious!

Now I’m well aware that there is much more to this than what I have read so far but I love anything related to systems and ratings and this strikes me as a wonderful base to build a system on.

So I’ve been playing around with his ‘method’ over the weekend and had a look at one race a day from the Ascot Festival to come up with these ‘class’ ratings. Bear in mind that I haven’t tested this method or applied it to any previous result so I have no idea whether it will all go belly up or be the greatest betting aid since…….. well Festival Trends. It’s simply an interpretation of the Van De Wheil system/method or whatever you want to call it which arrived at some figures.

QUEEN ANNE

GOLDIKOVA 86
CANFORD CLIFFS 64
CAPE BLANCO 61
RIO DE LA PLATA 54
CITYSCAPE 40

PRINCE OF WALES

REWILDING 71
SO YOU THINK 62
AWAIT THE DAWN 40
CAPE BLANCO 40
PLANTEUR 37

GOLD CUP

FAME AND GLORY 57
AAIM TO PROSPER 28
HOLBERG 27
MANIGHAR 27
DUNCAN 26
OPINION POLL 26

CORONATION STAKES

MORE THAN REAL 68
I LOVE ME 39
JOVIALITY 30
BAREFOOT LADY 29
TOGETHER 28

In case you’re wondering…… to arrive at these figures I looked at 4 particular elements of the relevant horse formline including the two ideas VDW proposed (class and current form).

So I had A) Prizemoney won divided by number of races won, B) races won divided by races ran, C) current form (last 3 runs) and D) number of horses beaten in those last 3 runs.

To get the current form figure (C) so that a high number was favourable I simply subtracted the number from 30 (3 x 10) so 0 was the worst rating and 27 the highest. It was then a case of converting them all to %’s, rounding up and adding them all together in a completely convoluted and probably un-necessary manner. (Please note: These ratings are not to be confused with our Trends Ratings used in our Trends Guide)

A fun way to spend a very wet and very miserable Sunday morning and afternoon.

Good luck,
Gavin.

The bookies have priced up a number of races next week at Royal Ascot so with a combination of trends, fancies, a horse from my notebook and a little help from my brother I’ve come up with 4 horses that might make a nice wager……..

I was all set to start off with a 33/1 shot to take on Frankel with and began writing out the piece yesterday afternoon. However it seems everyone else thought it was value as well because his price collapsed and within half an hour Excelebration was a best priced 14/1 (9/1 in places!). 33’s was too big for a horse that was beaten by Frankel by a smaller distance than second favourite Dubawi Gold had been and one that has since won a Guineas by 7 lengths. OK, it was only the German version but the 3 times their winner has run in the St James Palace stakes they have finished 435 so the race shouldn’t be underestimated. 33/1 for a place is a lot better than taking 1/3 on the likely winner.

Anyway the 33’s is long gone and 14/1 isn’t quite as appealing so here’s 4 alternative horses that we should all be able to get the price on….

ROYAL HUNT CUP

Last year I asked my brother to look at the ante-post markets for Royal Ascot and he came up with three horses, one for the Hunt Cup and two for the Wokingham (although one didn’t actually run in the race). Of the two that ran he came up with the 28/1 winner of the Hunt Cup (Invisible Man) and a 16/1 8th in the Wokingham (Edge Closer). Not bad going by any standards but just another ‘day in the office’ for Gary ‘The Outsider’.

So, not surprisingly, I asked him what he fancied this year. In the Wokingham his long term fancy didn’t get an entry so he’s a bit undecided about the race at the moment and will wait for the 5 day declarations to make his choice but in the Hunt Cup he’s very keen on a Richard Hannon runner. Basically when going though this particular race he’s looking for a 4 or 5yo that is rated in the 90’s and seems to have plenty of potential to improve. It’s the blueprint that selected Invisible Man last year and has led him to INVINCIBLE SOUL this year.

He’s a horse that always seems to need a run each season (last 2 years he’s got stuffed in a race at Sandown on his debut) but steps up on that form in his subsequent outings as he showed again this year when running above himself against some highly rated horses in a Listed race at Goodwood 2 weeks ago. He ran an absolute cracker at the Royal Meeting last year when 2nd in the Britannia handicap which is also run over the straight mile and 33/1 looks very appealing.

THE WOKINGHAM

I’ll save Gary the time of waiting for the 5 day decarations by telling him, and all of you, that PASTORAL PLAYER is a great bet for the Wokingham. If the draw is kind to him (either side of the track, just not in the middle!) he’s the one they all have to beat. You may recall he’s the horse that won the sprint that I haven’t shup up about since on 1000 Guineas day which has thrown up a lot of sprint winners. He won that very competitive race incredibly easily despite starting slowly and has obviously been kept back with this race in mind. Plenty of horses have won the Wokingham from a rating in the low 100’s and Hughie Morrison won the race a few years back with Baltic King.

I really like this ones chances at 11/1.

KINGS STAND STAKES

He’s a horse I’ve mentioned on the blog a few times and one I think should be stepped up to 6f but his trainer seems set on sticking to the minimum trip and on this occasion it may just pay off. With Overdose in the field and a whole host of other runners who like to force the pace we could see a strongly run race that might just play into the hands of a horse with both speed and stamina on a tough course. 

PROHIBIT is just such a horse and he’s been holding his form remarkably well this year, since returning from a stint in Dubai, having been placed twice in Group 2 company where he’s run on strongly at the finish. His form over 5f at Ascot is 341 with his win coming in a handicap off a rating of 100. He doesn’t mind any going and at around 16/1 looks another outsider with strong place possibilities.

THE GOLD CUP

The last horse I’m going to mention today requires a small leap of faith as he hasn’t been the most reliable of horses throughout his career although on his day he’s pretty decent and has some classy form to his name (2nd to Harbinger amongst others).

According to the trends for this race you need a horse that was bred in the UK or Ireland (all of the last 12), is a 4-6yo (12/14 + Yeats!), had run no more than three times this season (12/12) and if they’d run in the race the previous year had made the top 3 (13/13). The last 8 British trained winners had all run in either the Yorkshire Cup or the Henry II Stakes at Sandown on their last start.

With doubts about the participation of Rite Of Passage, stamina questions regarding Fame And Glory and Cavalryman and age concerns with Kasbah Bliss the safest option looks to be DUNCAN at around 8/1.

He won the Yorkshire Cup last time out, where he carried a Group 2 penalty, in gutsy style having had a protracted duel with Henry II Stakes winner Blue Bajan throughout the last 2 furlongs. It’s a big step up from 1m6f to 2m4f and plenty have failed to stay in the race over the years but I liked the way Duncan saw out the extended trip last time out and it could just be that the Cup distances are what he needs to finally become the Group 1 horse he always threatened to be.

HUNT CUP: INVINCIBLE SOUL 33/1
WOKINGHAM: PASTORAL PLAYER 11/1
KINGS STAND: PROHIBIT 16/1
GOLD CUP: DUNCAN 8/1

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. It’s still not too late to take up the Festival Trends special Ascot offer……….

FESTIVAL TRENDS for ROYAL ASCOT

Epsom was another cracking meeting for Festival Trends with Saturday proving one of our best days for quite some time. We kicked off the day by giving out 10/1 winner Charles Camion as a ‘very strong trends horse’ as well as making him top rated and then followed that up with 16/1 winner Funanlter and 13/2 sprint winner Captain Dunne. Not a bad days work!

It means that since the start of the year our trends guides are now up +115pts to level stakes and are well on target to match last years amazing 295pts profit (at Betfair SP). In the 130 races we’ve covered so far this year we’ve had 40 winners for a strike rate of 30% and have highlighted winners at odds of 10/1 three times, 14/1, 16/1  twice and 40/1 amongst many others.

We go into the Royal Ascot meeting in cracking form and I’m supremely confident of having a great 5 days punting.

In fact, I’m so confident that Royal Ascot will be a great meeting for us I’m ‘going to make you an offer you can’t refuse!’

If you purchase our ROYAL ASCOT TRENDS GUIDE and we don’t manage to pick winners that return a total of 30pts at SP I’ll upgrade your subscription to the Season Ticket (worth £99) ABSOLUTELY FREE OF CHARGE!

That’s right! Pay just £29.95 for the Ascot Guide and if our selections in the 30 races don’t return enough winners to make 30 points at SP then you get upgraded to the current £99 Season Ticket at no extra cost saving you £69 and you’ll get all these upcoming big meetings absolutely FREE……

Ascot King George, Newmarket July meeting, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor, Doncaster St Leger, Ascot Champions Day, Cambridgeshire, Cesarewitch, Breeders Cup, Cheltenham Open meeting, Newbury, Kempton plus EVERY other guide we produce between now and 31st December 2011.

It’s an offer you can’t afford to miss….CLICK HERE>>ROYAL ASCOT TRENDS OFFER

Full details of the offer can be found on the Festival Trends webpage…… http://festivaltrends.co.uk/

Before I start with the main 3 jockeys there is one trainer who didn’t make the list yesterday but definitely deserves a mention. If you were asked who has the most impressive record at the Royal meeting since 2004 you’d probably be thinking along the lines of O’Brien, Hannon, Stoute or maybe even Suroor but I reckon it’s none of those. For my mind the trainer who’s definitely the one to look out for is….

JAMES FANSHAWE

His record of 5 winners from 26 runners is pretty decent in itself but when you look closer you see that 16 of those 26 made the frame and a staggering 19 of the 26 made the top 4! At a meeting as competitive as Royal Ascot those figures are simply astounding and are far better than anything the big stables can offer.

Those 5 winners produce a level stakes profit of £16.87 and include winners at 8/1, 10/1 and 14/1.

But by playing around with his stats a little bit and simply backing the Fanshawe runners that carried 9-01 or less and weren’t trying a longer trip compared to their last start you would have had 5 winners and 11 places from 21 horses. (19 of the 21 finished in the top 4!)

They finished: 323221111254744321422 and include places at 25/1, 14/1, 20/1 and 50/1.

His runners are definitely worth looking out for next week.

———-

Onto the jockeys…….

Which top international jockey has ridden 53 times at Royal Ascot on a horse carrying 9-02 or more and has been beaten on every single one of them? Step forward…..

FRANKIE DETTORI

Since 2004 he’s ridden 13 winners from 153 rides (8.5%) and backing all his mounts would have shown a level stakes loss of -£48.30. He has managed at least 1 winning ride a year since 2004.

- All 53 of his mounts that carried 9-02 or more have been beaten
- All 22 of his rides over 5f were beaten
- Only 1 of his 45 rides in handicap company have won
-  All 18 of his rides trying a shorter trip compared to their last start have been beaten
- All 17 of his rides aged 6 or over have been beaten
- All 20 of the horses he’s ridden that had raced 15 or more times in their career were beaten

Not surprisingly, 11 of his 13 winners came from the Saeed Bin Suroor stable. So by only backing him when the horse he’s riding is…..

A) carrying under 9-02 and is within 4lb of the bottom weight
B) trained by Saeed Bin Surror
C) running over 7f or further
and
D) not running over a shorter trip compared to its last start

you would have had 11 winners from 30 rides (36.7%) and shown a very tasty level stakes profit of +£65.20

Which former champion jockey had 53 rides at Royal Ascot between 2004 and 2007 without a single success? None other than Ryan Moore!

RYAN MOORE

Since 2004 he’s ridden 10 winners from 137 rides (7.3%) and backing all his mounts would have shown a big level stakes loss of -£66.77.

But all 10 of his winners have come in the last 3 years (since joining Sir Michael Stoute as stable jockey) and his record before that was very poor.

2004… 0 – 10
2006… 0 – 23
2007… 0 – 20

Also…….
- All 27 of his rides on the Tuesday of the meeting were beaten
- All 19 of his rides over 5f were beaten
- All 27 of his rides under 8-12 were beaten
- and All 9 of his rides over 9-05 were beat.
- All 26 of his rides on 2yo’s have been beaten
- All 30 of his rides for Richard Hannon have been beaten.

So let’s just concentrate on his mounts when riding for the Stoute stable which gives us 7 winners from 46 rides and a small LSL of -£2.77.

But…..
- All 7 of those winners were over 1m – 2m1f
- All 7 winners carried 8-12 – 9-05
- All 7 winners were aged 3 or 4yo
- All 7 winners came in fields of 10 or more runners

So don’t back him until Wednesday and then back all his rides for Sir Michael Stoute that satisfy those 4 rules for-

7 winners from 18 rides and a Level Stakes Profit of +£25.22

The last 3 years would have shown the following results-

2008

3 winners from 7 rides and a LSP of +£11.00 finishing 0070111

2009

2 winners from 4 rides and a LSP of +£14.00 finishing 4011

2010

2 winners from 4 rides and a LSP of + £3.22 finishing 1631

RICHARD HUGHES

Since 2004 he’s ridden 12 winners from 115 rides (10.4%) and backing all his mounts would have shown a small level stakes loss of -£5.29. He has managed at least 1 winning ride a year since 2004.

- All 22 of his rides on the Thursday have been beaten
- All 18 of his mounts that were 28/1 or bigger ran unplaced
- All 27 of his rides aged 5 or over were beaten
- All 30 of his rides that hadn’t won within their last 3 starts were beaten (not including debutants)

Not surprisingly, 11 of his 12 winners came from the Richard Hannon stable. So by only backing him when the horse he’s riding is…..

A) aged 2-4yo
B) trained by Richard Hannon
C) 25/1 or under
and
D) running over a distance of 5f - 1m1f

you would have had 11 winners from 49 rides (22.4%) and shown a level stakes profit of +£53.20

You would also have had one winner in the years 2004 – 2007, 2 winners in 2008 and 3 winners in both 2009 and 2010.

——–

Hopefully something to think about when you’re looking for a winner (or loser) next week.

———

FESTIVAL TRENDS for ROYAL ASCOT

Epsom was another cracking meeting for Festival Trends with Saturday proving one of our best days for quite some time. We kicked off the day by giving out 10/1 winner Charles Camion as a ‘very strong trends horse’ as well as making him top rated and then followed that up with 16/1 winner Funanlter and 13/2 sprint winner Captain Dunne. Not a bad days work!

It means that since the start of the year our trends guides are now up +115pts to level stakes and are well on target to match last years amazing 295pts profit (at Betfair SP). In the 130 races we’ve covered so far this year we’ve had 40 winners for a strike rate of 30% and have highlighted winners at odds of 10/1 three times, 14/1, 16/1  twice and 40/1 amongst many others.

We go into the Royal Ascot meeting in cracking form and I’m supremely confident of having a great 5 days punting.

In fact, I’m so confident that Royal Ascot will be a great meeting for us I’m ‘going to make you an offer you can’t refuse!’

If you purchase our ROYAL ASCOT TRENDS GUIDE and we don’t manage to pick winners that return a total of 30pts at SP I’ll upgrade your subscription to the Season Ticket (worth £99) ABSOLUTELY FREE OF CHARGE!

That’s right! Pay just £29.95 for the Ascot Guide and if our selections in the 30 races don’t return enough winners to make 30 points at SP then you get upgraded to the current £99 Season Ticket at no extra cost saving you £69 and you’ll get all these upcoming big meetings absolutely FREE……

Ascot King George, Newmarket July meeting, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor, Doncaster St Leger, Ascot Champions Day, Cambridgeshire, Cesarewitch, Breeders Cup, Cheltenham Open meeting, Newbury, Kempton plus EVERY other guide we produce between now and 31st December 2011.

It’s an offer you can’t afford to miss….CLICK HERE>>ROYAL ASCOT TRENDS OFFER

Full details of the offer can be found on the Festival Trends webpage…… http://festivaltrends.co.uk/

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s coming. I can feel it. A big win is just around the corner.

So far at the big meetings this year it’s been a case of close but no cigar. At Cheltenham in March I needed What A Friend in the frame for a 5 figure payout - he finished 4th beaten a shorthead. At Aintree the following month I was cheering on Alan Kings well fancied Tante Sissi in a NH flat race for £15k (although he was well stuffed) and last Saturday at Epsom it was the turn of Zuider Zee to let me down for a payout of £20k. I had a £1 Lucky 31 which contained winners at 10/1, 16/1 and 13/2 (plus a loser) going on to Mr Gosdens runner and although he ran on well he could never get to the leaders and I had to settle for 3rd. There was always a doubt that 1m4f would prove a bit short for him and so it worked out.

As I said, I’m getting close to that big win but that all important fourth winner is proving elusive. With my favourite meeting of the year taking place next week I’m hoping that it all slots into place and Royal Ascot provides me with that big score. I have quite a few runners from my ‘horses to follow’ list due to take part next week and I’m getting more confident as the days go by. Bring it on……..

——

TRAINER STATS

I’ve been doing the Trainer stats for most of the big meetings this year with varied degrees of success but I think that’s mainly due to some of the small data samples that were available to research.  It worked out well for the Cheltenham Festival but Epsom last weekend was very disappointing and I think that was due to relying on trainers with 4 or 5 winners (and less) over 7 years at a two day meeting. It probably meant I ended up looking for coincidences rather than specific types of runners trainers do well with. A lesson learned.

With 30 races over 5 days the numbers involved at Royal Ascot are much better and by just concentrating on those trainers who have had at least 10 winners over the last few years we can limit the numbers of trainers analysed and hopefully the statistics will work out better. They certainly look a lot more reliable and the Richard Hannon winners are very easily defined……

RICHARD HANNON

Since 2004 he’s had 11 winners from 120 runners (9.2%) and shows a level stakes loss of -£17.79.
But…….
- All 11 of his winners carried 8-08 – 9-05
- All 11 of his winners were ridden by Richard Hughes
- All 11 of his winners returned 25/1 or shorter
- All 11 of his winners were aged 2 – 4 years old
- 10 of his 11 winners were over a distance of 6f – 1m1f

If you had applied these 5 rules to all Richard Hannon runners at Royal Ascot since 2004 you would have backed 10 winners from 29 runners (34.5%)  and returned a very healthy level stakes profit of +£66.70

If you had wanted to be even more selective you could have backed these types of horses but only if they’ve had less than 3 starts (0-2) for 6 winners from 11 runners (54.5%) and made a LSP of +£41.62. The 11 horses finished: 12470111114 and include Big Audio who won at 22/1.

RUNNERS FROM THE HANNON YARD WORTH LAYING…..

ANY RUNNER NOT RIDDEN BY RICHARD HUGHES
- Since 2004 all 11 of his winners were ridden by Hughes with 53 other horses all losing including 30 ridden by Ryan Moore (only 9 of the 53 ‘outside rides’ were placed)

OUTSIDERS
- He’s had 28 horses start at 28/1 or bigger since 2004 and all have been beaten (just 2 placed)

HIS RUNNERS ON THE THURSDAY OF THE MEETING
- Since 2004 all 29 of his runners on Ladies Day have been beaten (6 placed)

HIS RUNNERS OVER 5 FURLONGS
- Since 2004 he’s had 32 runners at the meeting over the minimum distance for just 1 winner and 4 places

Sir MICHAEL STOUTE

Since 2004 he’s had 13 winners from 103 runners (12.6%) and shows a level stakes loss of -£24.68.
But…….
- All 13 of his winners were over a distance of 7f – 2m1f
- All 13 of his winners had raced at least 3 times in their career
- All 13 of his winners returned 10/1 or shorter
- All 13 of his winners came on the Wednesday – Saturday of the meeting
- 12 of his 13 winners carried 8-12 – 9-05

If you had applied these 5 rules to all Stoute runners at Royal Ascot since 2004 you would have backed 12 winners from 45 runners (26.7%)  and returned a level stakes profit of +£23.31

If you had been even more selective and backed these types of horses but only if they were running in the same class as their previous race you would have had 11 winners from 36 runners (30.6%) and made a LSP of +£29.81. You would have backed at least 1 winner at every Royal Ascot meeting since 2004.

AIDEN O’BRIEN

Since 2004 he’s had 19 winners from 108 runners (17.6%) and shows a level stakes loss of -£20.97. He’s trained at least 2 winners a year since 2004.
But…….
- All 19 of his winners were over 6f or further
- All 19 of his winners had been rested at least 2 weeks since their last run
- All 19 of his winners returned 10/1 or shorter
- All 19 of his winners were from the top 5 in the betting

If you had applied these 4 simple rules to all Aiden O’Brien runners at Royal Ascot since 2004 you would have backed 19 winners from 56 runners (33.9%)  and returned a level stakes profit of +£31.02

RUNNERS FROM THE O’BRIEN YARD WORTH LAYING…..

OUTSIDERS
- He’s had 37 horses start at 11/1 or bigger since 2004 and all have been beaten (just 3 placed)

———-

FESTIVAL TRENDS for ROYAL ASCOT

Epsom was another cracking meeting for Festival Trends with Saturday proving one of our best days for quite some time. We kicked off the day by giving out 10/1 winner Charles Camion as a ‘very strong trends horse’ as well as making him top rated and then followed that up with 16/1 winner Funanlter and 13/2 sprint winner Captain Dunne. Not a bad days work!

It means that since the start of the year our trends guides are now up +115pts to level stakes and are well on target to match last years amazing 295pts profit (at Betfair SP). In the 130 races we’ve covered so far this year we’ve had 40 winners for a strike rate of 30% and have highlighted winners at odds of 10/1 three times, 14/1, 16/1  twice and 40/1 amongst many others.

We go into the Royal Ascot meeting in cracking form and I’m supremely confident of having a great 5 days punting.

In fact, I’m so confident that Royal Ascot will be a great meeting for us I’m ‘going to make you an offer you can’t refuse!’

If you purchase our ROYAL ASCOT TRENDS GUIDE and we don’t manage to pick winners that return a total of 30pts at SP* I’ll upgrade your subscription to the Season Ticket (worth £99) ABSOLUTELY FREE OF CHARGE!

That’s right! Pay just £29.95 for the Ascot Guide and if our selections in the 30 races don’t return enough winners to make 30 points at SP* then you get upgraded to the current £99 Season Ticket at no extra cost saving you £69 and you’ll get all these upcoming big meetings absolutely FREE……

Ascot King George, Newmarket July meeting, Glorious Goodwood, York Ebor, Doncaster St Leger, Ascot Champions Day, Cambridgeshire, Cesarewitch, Breeders Cup, Cheltenham Open meeting, Newbury, Kempton plus EVERY other guide we produce between now and 31st December 2011.

It’s an offer you can’t afford to miss….CLICK HERE>>ROYAL ASCOT TRENDS OFFER

Full details of the offer can be found on the Festival Trends webpage…… http://festivaltrends.co.uk/

Good luck,
Gavin.

Before I give my thoughts on today’s racing I have to mention the fantastic concession that Betfred are running on the Derby.

Basically, if your horse loses and Carlton House wins you get your money back. Absolutely brilliant. Bet your fancy in the Derby and if he wins, you win. Bet your fancy in the Derby and if he’s beaten by the favourite you don’t lose. Obviously you’ll lose if both get beat but you’ll do that no matter who you bet with!

If you’re not backing Carlton House in the race this afternoon then you simply have to bet with Betfred.

Open an account here: BETFRED

(It applies to win singles only and a maximum stake of £500.)

————

It was a bad day for me yesterday with the only saving grace being the Oaks winner which Matt had kindly put me onto a few weeks back. I had enough ante-post to cover my losses from yesterday but as is usually the case when I back a winner I couldn’t help thinking I should have had a bit more on. Thanks anyway Matt.

Onto today’s racing…..

I’ve got 4 today which I’m doing in a Lucky 15. Feel free to follow me, lay them or completely ignore them!

2.40 Epsom

The race looks set up for Premio Loco but it wouldn’t be the first time he found one too good when appearing to be the best horse in the race. Rio De Plata has it all to do with a 7lb penalty but he’s a Group 1 winner who is sure to give a good account of himself in this Group 3 race. The one I’ll be backing though is ST MORITZ who has twice won at Listed level this season and is well worth his place in this field. He won a very competitive handicap at York in a fast time on his last run where yeserday’s winner Dance And Dance was third and with just a little more improvement should be in the shake-up.

3.15 Epsom

This race isn’t called the ‘Dash’ for nothing and you can expect the 16 runners to take no prisoners with a fast and furious pace right from the off. A high draw is a distinct advantage when the field is this size and I wouldn’t be interested in anything drawn 8 or under. In a tough sprint handicap the safest bet looks to be the topweight CAPTAIN DUNNE who rarely runs a bad race, has Group form and was just pipped in this race in 2009. Compensation awaits today.

THE DERBY

Personally I can’t have Carlton House and after a late injury scare you wonder if he’d even be running were it not for the fact the Queen owns him. You also have to worry about Recital’s ability to handle a track like Epsom after his last run in the Derrinstown and without Fallon onboard he’s another I’d be looking to avoid. To me the race looks set up for a shock result and the likes of Memphis Tennessee, Masked Marvel and Ocean War could all be given a chance but the one I think may be overpriced is VADAMAR who ran third to Pour Moi last time out when odds on favourite. There are grounds for thinking that he can reverse that form as he appeared to get outpaced in that race over 1m2f when the pace lifted and he was doing all his best work at the finish. It’s been a while since the French won our Derby but this one has the class and looks certain to appreciate the step up to 1m4f. The 20/1 looks too big.

4.50 Epsom

I wish Berling wasn’t running here because he’s capable of winning this in a canter but equally capable of veering across the track and ending up in the grandstand. At a track like Epsom it’s probably best to leave him out of the equation but I just have a niggling feeling that today could be his day. If he wins I’ll be kicking myself all day because I’ll be backing ZUIDER ZEE who shaped very encouragingly on his debut run when 4th in that decent handicap at Ascot which saw Berling do his latest cross course detour. Zuider Zee wasn’t done any favours by his antics that day and would have made the frame but for it. I think we can expect the unexpected in this race today!

4 singles and an each way Lucky 15 will be my bet today.

Good luck whatever you decide to do,
Gavin.

It’s been a hectic week for me since last Friday having gone from Cardiff to Porthcawl to Bristol to Manchester to Paignton to London and back again to Cardiff taking in Poker, football, Britains Got Talent, dinosaurs, birthdays, Wembley….phew!

Today’s post is a bit rushed but luckily I did the trends and trainer statistics some time ago so my selections have been made for me!

According to the trainer stats I did a couple of weeks ago the following horses have chances today…..

1.40

No surprise to see the two clear market leaders as the picks here. Antara or Timepiece? That is the question.

Timepiece may or may not be the answer but she’s the one I’ll be backing.

2.10

Highland Knight, Tartan Gigha, Hacienda, Beauchamp Xerxes and Merchant Of Medici make up the shortlist for this race.

Hacienda isn’t likely to be under 8/1 so I’ll ignore that one. Of the remainder I’m going to have an each way bet on Merchant of Medici.

2.45

It’s another straight fight between the two market leaders, St Nicholas Abbey and Midday, according to the trainer stats.

I wasn’t impressed with SNA’s defeat of Harris Tweed at Chester as the race looked weak and the favourite wasn’t given a great ride that day as his jockey kept quickening and then slowing the pace throughout the race. And really is beating Harris Tweed Group 1 form?

It’s Henry’s runner again for me and Midday

3.25

The shortlist for this race consists of  Beaumonts Party, Licence to Till and Dhaamer.

Licence to Till is unlikely to be under 8/1 which would leave us with the top 2 in the betting again.

My preference is for Beaumont’s Party who is in good form at present.

4.50

Applying the trainer stats guide to this race leaves us looking at Utley or Chilworth Lad.

With Utley running so poorly last time out it may be worth taking a chance on Chilworth Lad

———

I’ll be back tomorrow with a more thorough look at the days racing.

Good luck,
Gavin.