Archive for May, 2011

Another FREE guide added…..

Saturday, May 28th, 2011

I’m going to be away for a few days as it’s half term and the family have got a number of excursions planned.

But first today I have the Welsh Amateur Poker Championships to play here in Cardiff. That starts at 2.30pm and depending on how I do today will determine tomorrows plans. I’ve got tickets for Old Trafford to see Peterborough take on Huddersfield for the Div 1 playoffs but if I’m still going strong in the poker I’ll be forced to give that a miss. The family are going either way so I’m not sure if I want a good run of cards or if I want to get knocked out early. I think I’ll leave it in the hands of the Poker Gods…..

We’re then off down to my mums in Devon for the Bank Holiday and then going to London in the middle of the week because I managed to blag some free tickets for the Britains Got Talent live finals on Wednesday night. It’s not everyone’s cup of tea but we enjoy it in our house and it’s a lot cheaper than taking the missus to a West End Show.

I will be back on Thursday though in time for the Derby meeting.

Before I go off to play cards I’ll be uploading a new guide for the Zetland Gold Cup which takes place on Bank Holiday monday at Redcar. The trends are pretty good for this race and helped us pick the winner last year. The guide is in the same place as all the others I gave out earlier this week.

i.e. http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/go.php?r=558&i=l7

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I don’t fancy too many today although I will be backing Henry Cecil’s improving filly VITA NOVA in the 3.05 Haydock. She won a handicap last time out by 6 lengths off a rating of 87 and although this is a big step up in class I reckon she’s up to it.

The other one that will be burdened with carrying my money is NAQSHABBAN over at Newmarket in the 2.50. He won a minor 4 runner conditions race last time out which has worked out very well (runner up won the Musidora, 4th was 2nd in a big handicap last week) and looks certain to appreciate a step up to 1m4f.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Thanks Broggsy! I hadn’t seen that Priestley’s Reward was running until I saw your comment. Cost me £20….. :-(

5 FREE GUIDES…..

Thursday, May 26th, 2011

SANDOWN

On the whole, it’s a cracking card tonight with the highlight being the reappearance of Workforce in the Brigadier Gerard stakes. There’s more on that race later but first there are a couple of horses I fancy in the supporting handicaps………. 

6.00 Sandown

This is a pretty poor handicap for such a high profile meeting and with less than £2600 for the winner it really ought not to be on the card but the racecourse executives have decided it’s a suitable opening race and luckily the odds aren’t affected by the prizemoney! So what’s going to win it?

The obvious answer is Chain Of Events who appreciated the drop down in class when taking a Class 5 handicap at Newmarket by 3 1/2 lengths last time out. Not surprisingly he’s been raised 7lb for that win and now races off a mark of 74 but he had some decent runs last season off this kind of rating, and in much better races than this, so I’d be happy to stick with him tonight at around 4/1 (Bet365).

Selection: CHAIN OF EVENTS 4/1

8.45 Sandown

The closing handicap is a much better affair all round. There are quite a few runners struggling to recapture last Seasons form, some big stables with horses towards the bottom of the handicap, a number of horses just running into form and an unexposed runner of John Gosden’s all making for a difficult race to sort out.

Nazreef has won 5 of his 11 starts but all of them were on the All Weather although he has run some cracking races on turf including finishing 5th in the Spring Mile at Newbury the time before last. He got really worked up at Newmarket on his last start and played up badly in the stalls so he has excuses for his poor run. If you can forgive him that rare blip he has a great chance here at 16/1. Chapter and Verse has faced some stiff tasks recently having contested Listed races and a Class 2 handicap from a rating of 100. His last run saw him beaten by easy winner Green Destiny over a trip just a bit longer than is ideal for him and he’s best judged on his form on turf over a mile last Season when he twice finished 2nd off this kind of rating. My only problem with his chances is that the three times he’s run at Sandown he’s finished 8th of 10, 6th of 8 and 8th of 11 with no apparent excuses for any of those runs. The likely favourite, Julienas, is from the in-form Walter Swinburn stable and he ran a good third last time out over course and distance. It’s not the first time he’s ran well at Sandown and he obviously comes here in top form but I have my doubts that a mile is his ideal trip and I’ll be overlooking him until he returns to 9-10f.

Moynahan is another who ran well last time out and whose trainer is in good form. The last time he was able to run off a rating of 87 he took a Class 3 mile handicap at Goodwood by 3/4 length. He must go close here tonight and I’ll be backing him each way at 14/1.

Selection: MOYNAHAN (EW) 14/1

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FREE TRENDS GUIDES

I’m giving away a trends guide for tonights Brigadier Gerard Stakes complete with our 25/1 selection and the ratings. Simply follow the link at the end of this post.

If that wasn’t enough I’ve also done a Trends preview for the Derby and come up with an alternative to the current short priced favourite. You can also get that guide by following the same link at the end of this post.

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JOCKEY AND TRAINER STATS FOR EPSOM

I’ve been posting the trainer stats for Epsom all week and I’ve now put them all together in one easy to read manual. You can download it completely free by following, yes you’ve guessed it, the link at the end of this post.

I’ve also done the same with the Jockeys for Epsom and they can be found by using that very same link. To give you a taster of some of the amazing stats I’ve dug up on the jockeys here are a couple of extracts from the Guide……

KIEREN FALLON

Quite simply, you will not find a current jockey who rides Epsom better than Kieren Fallon. Despite missing the 2007-2009 Derby meetings he can still boast figures of 12 winners and 3 places from 35 rides. That is a staggering 34.3% strike rate on ALL his rides which also shows a massive level stakes profit of +£30.25.

In the 4 years since 2004 that he has ridden at the meeting he has had 4 winners (2004), 4 winners (2005), 2 winners (2006) and 2 winners (2010).

In handicaps he has had 7 winners from 15 rides
In races at 1m4f he has ridden 6 winners from 14 rides
All 12 of his winners returned 14/1 or shorter
11 of his 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out.

Interestingly he won on both the two horses that he rode that had run 3-5 days previously

You could have just backed whatever Fallon had ridden to show excellent profits or improved the figures slightly by backing anything he rides at 14/1 or under but if you want to be really specific you could have backed all his rides at 1m or further that finished in the top 3 last time out and started at 14/1 or shorter to show the following results….

10 winners from 19 rides (52.6%) and a LSP of +£30.62.
Those 19 horses finished: 5711111616511414314
Absolutely incredible!!

EDDIE AHERN

He’s ridden 2 winners and had 3 placed from 23 rides since 2004 and shows a LSP of +£7.00.

Both winners and all his placed rides came in Class 2 handicaps.

His 7 rides over 5f & 6f have provided just 1 placed horse which are the exact same figures for his rides at 1m4f. All 6 of his rides in Group company were unplaced. All 4 female horses he rode were unplaced.

All 5 of his rides at 28/1 or bigger were unplaced but more surprising is that all 7 of his rides at under 10/1 were also ALL unplaced (9/2, 5/2, 9/1, 6/1, 7/2, 7/1 and 15/2).

Simply back him in Class 2 handicaps on horses that had their previous run in the last 31 days for 2 winners and 3 placed from 7 runners.

Those 7 horses finished: 0531312 and show a LSP of +£23.00. This includes  12/1 and 16/1 winners plus placed horses at 25/1, 14/1 and 16/1.

RICHARD HUGHES

He’s been a busy jockey at this meeting with 58 rides since 2004 and 40 of those coming in the last 4 years but he’s only managed to ride 3 winners in this time and his last 31 rides have all been beaten!……..

Get the full lowdown on these 3 jockeys plus Ryan Moore, Tom Queally, Frankie Dettori, Martin Dwyer, William Buick, Johnny Murtagh, Ted Durcan, Eddie Ahern, Phillip Robinson, Darryl Holland, Michael Hills, Joe Fanning, Jimmy Fortune, Paul Hanagan and Adrian Nicholls in the full guide. Download it now from the link below……

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5 FREE GUIDES

I’ve got 5 guides for you to download and all are 100% FREE.

There is a Trends Guide for the Brigadier Gerard race, a Derby trends preview with our trends selection, the Trainer stats for Epsom, the Jockey stats for Epsom and I’ve relisted the Paddock Watching Guide too.

Simply click the link below and choose which ones you want to download…..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/go.php?r=558&i=l7

This is direct link and no details are asked for or required. The numbers on the end of the link are for my curiosity and simply help me track the number of downloads .

Good luck,
Gavin.

The link for the downloads is  - http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/go.php?r=558&i=l7

Epsom trainer stats Part III….

Wednesday, May 25th, 2011

This is the final part of my look at the trainer stats for the forthcoming Epsom Derby meeting. The main trainer under the microsope today is handicap sprint king ‘Dandy’ Nicholls but I also have a few other trainers of note and some who have been struggling of late…..

DANDY NICHOLLS

Since 2004 he’s had just 4 winners from 77 runners (5.2%) and shows a whopping level stakes loss of -£35.37. Between 2006 and 2010 he sent 51 runners to the meeting for just 1 winner.

But…….
All 4 of his winners came on the Saturday of the meeting
All 4 of his winners came over 5 or 6 furlongs
All 4 of his winners were in fields of 14 or more runners
All 4 of his winners returned at 14/1 or under
All 4 of his winners were aged 5 and older

If you had applied these 5 rules to all David Nicholls runners at the Epsom Derby meeting since 2004 you would have backed 4 winners from 25 runners (16%)  and returned a LSP of +£16.62

The 25 runners finished 0301127174805000305010383

RUNNERS FROM THE NICHOLLS YARD WORTH LAYING…..

STEPPING UP IN TRIP
All 13 horses he’s run at Epsom’s Derby meeting since 2004 that stepped up in trip compared to their last run have been beaten (4 placed)
COMING OFF A BREAK
The 18 runners from the stable that ran having been rested for 26 or more days since their last start were all beaten (4 placed)
THOSE RIDDEN BY A. NICHOLLS
A. Nicholls is 0 – 17 on his rides for the stable (3 placed)

RACES WORTH NOTING

5F DASH HANDICAP (SATURDAY)
He’s sent loads of runners for this race but it’s hard to argue with his record of 4 wins (16/1, 9/1, 14/1 and 11/1) in the last 9 years for such a competitive handicap.
Since 2004 his runners have finished:2500125703800000057001380

RACES TO AVOID

MILE HANDICAP (FRIDAY)
His record in the race since 1999 is 11 runners, 0 winners and 2 placed. Since 2004 he’s sent 8 horses to contest this race and they have finished: 45693647

Other noteworthy trainers……

SILVESTER KIRK

He’s had just the 1 winner since 2004 with another 3 placed but these came from just 13 runners and you would have made a small profit of +£4.00 backing them all to level stakes.

If you forget any of his runners trying a different trip compared to their last run and you would have backed 7 horses who finished: 0722210 including a 16/1 winner and 20/1 second.

WILLIE MUIR

He’s managed just 1 winner from 19 runners since 2004 but he’s also had a few placed horses at big prices.

The 5 horses he ran over 1m4f+ were all unplaced as were his 3 Group race runners and the 3 that carried more than 9-01.

By backing his runners in races up to 1m3f, that had won within their last 5 starts and had their last run within the previous month you would have had the following results: 412704 including a 5/1 winner and places at 16/1, 20/1 and 33/1.

MICHAEL BELL

He’s had just 10 runners since 2004 but has recorded 2 wins and 2 places.

Both winners won last time out and all his placed runners finished in the top 3 on their last start.

The most striking thing about his runners though is that those horses that had their last run within the previous 25 days finished: 12127 with just his runner in last years Derby (Co-ordinated Cut) spoiling his form figures.

ED DUNLOP

He’s had 2 winners from his 16 runners at the meeting and shows a small LSL of -£1.50

But if you had backed all of his runners that carried 8-08 – 9-01 and won last time out you would have had 2 winners and 3 placed horses (from 7) for a small LSP of £7.50.

The 7 runners finished: 1022201

AND SOME TO BE WARY OF:

BARRY HILLS

Since 2004 he’s sent 17 runners to the meeting without success. In fact only 2 of the 17 even made the frame. Michael Hills rode 16 of the 17 losers.

With 7 of his 17 runners starting in the top 3 of the betting at 10/1 or under he’s definitely a trainer to be wary of at this meeting.

RICHARD FAHEY

He’s had a terrible time at this meeting since 2004 with all 31 of his runners getting beat and just 4 making the frame. Paul Hanagan has ridden 21 of the 31 horses and is the only jockey to have made the frame on a Fahey runner.

From his 9 runners in 2010 he managed just the one place when Premier Clarets finished 3rd at 11/2.

26 of his 31 runners were in handicaps.
19 of his 31 runners returned at 14/1 or less including 7 under 8/1.

Recent form doesn’t seem to have much bearing on his runners either with 15 of the 31 losers having finished in the top 4 on their last start including 6 last time out winners.

SIMON DOW

He trains in Epsom but the Derby meeting at his local course hasn’t been a good one for him with just 1 placed horse to show for his 10 runners.

However all of his runners did start at 11-1 or bigger including five at 25/1+

KEVIN RYAN

From 2004 – 2006 he had a pretty impressive record at the meeting with 3 winners from just 10 runners but since then his runners have rarely even been sighted. From the 23 runners he’s sent to Epsom’s Derby meeting since 2007 he’s managed just one, solitary placed horse.

Since 2004 he’s had…..

13 horses coming back to the track after a 26+ day break
12 runners carry 9-02 or more
7 horses drop down in trip compared to their previous start
5 horses aged 7 or older

……..And all of them ran unplaced!

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the jockeys for Epsom and I’ll also be taking a look at the Brigadier Gerard meeting from Sandown.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Epsom trainer stats Part II…..

Tuesday, May 24th, 2011

In today’s post I’ll be continuing my look at the trainer stats for the Epsom Derby Meeting which starts a week Friday. Under the spotlight today are Richard Hannon and Saeed Bin Suroor along with a few other trainers of note……

RICHARD HANNON

Since 2004 he’s had 5 winners from 57 runners (8.8%) and shows a level stakes loss of -£29.66. His record for the last three years is 2008 0 – 7, 2009 0 – 14 and 2010 0 – 10

But…….
All 5 of his winners came over 6 or 7 furlongs
All 5 of his winners returned 10/1 or shorter
All 5 of his winners had won finished in the top 3 on their previous start
All 5 of his winners had been rested at least 20 days since their last start

If you had applied these 4 rules to all Richard Hannon runners at the Epsom Derby meeting since 2004 you would have backed 5 winners from 10 runners (50%)  and returned a LSP of +£17.33

The 10 runners finished 1111142035

RUNNERS FROM THE HANNON YARD WORTH LAYING…..

GROUP RACE RUNNERS
All 9 Group race runners at Epsom’s Derby meeting since 2004 have been beaten (1 placed)
DISTANCES OF 1 MILE OR FURTHER
The 31 runners he’s sent to Epsom in races at 1 mile or further have all been beaten
OUTSIDERS
All 24 of his horses that started at 11/1 or bigger were beaten. All 6 at 28/1 or bigger were unplaced
STEPPING UP IN TRIP
All 23 of his runners that were stepped up in trip compared to their last run were beaten
RUNNING AGAIN QUICKLY
All 22 horses Hannon sent to Epsom who had raced in the previous 20 days were beaten
THE RACE EXPERIENCED
All 17 runners from the Hannon stable that had raced more than 10 times in their career were beaten.

RACES TO AVOID

WOODCOTE STAKES
He won the race in 2004 but since then his 9 runners have all been beaten including 4 runners at 5/1 or under.

Those 9 runners finished: 345248905

 

SAEED BIN SUROOR

(Please note: These figures do not apply to Godolphin’s other trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni)

Since 2004 Saeed Bin Suroor has had 6 winners from 34 runners (17.6%) and shows a level stakes loss of -£16.14.

But…….
All 6 of his winners came in fields of 11 or fewer runners
All 6 of his winners returned 9/2 or shorter
All 6 of his winners started favourite
All 6 of his winners raced over 5f - 1m3f

If you had applied these 4 rules to all Saeed Bin Surror runners at the Epsom Derby meeting since 2004 you would have backed 6 winners from 8 runners (75%)  and returned a LSP of +£9.84

The 8 runners finished 11221111

RUNNERS FROM THE BIN SUROOR YARD WORTH LAYING…..

STEPPING UP IN TRIP
All 15 runners from the stable that stepped up in trip compared to their last run were beaten (just 2 placed)
LONGER DISTANCES
All 13 of the stables runners to try a trip of 1m 4f or further were beaten (3 placed)

RACES TO AVOID

DIOMED STAKES
When you see his record in the race since 2004 you could be forgiven for thinking I’ve put this race in the wrong section: 8322372 but when you see that they returned 7/2, 15/2, 4/5f, 10/3f, 7/1, 11/2 and 9/2 it’s only then that you realise how expensive following his fancied horses in this race has been.

THE DERBY
He’s never won the Derby but has trained the beaten favourite on a couple of occasions. His 6 runners since 2004 have finished: 273790

Here are some other trainers for the meeting…..

MICK CHANNON

He’s had 3 winners from his 45 runners at the meeting and shows a large LSL of -£25.00

But if you had backed all of his runners that ran over 6f – 1m1f at 10/1 or under that finished in the top 2 on their last start you would have had 3 winners and 1 placed horse (from 7) for a LSP of £13.00.

The 7 runners finished: 1418431

LUCA CUMANI

He’s another trainer who’s very selective having had just 9 runners since 2004. From those 9 though he’s had 2 winners and another 3 placed horses. You would have made a small profit of +£9.50 backing all his runners to level stakes.

4 of his 5 runners on the Friday have made the frame.

But by backing his runners in fields of 13 or less you would have had 2 winners and 3 places from 5 runners, a 100% each way record!

The 5 runners finished: 12231 and include a 12/1 winner.

Mrs AMANDA PERRETT

She’s had 2 winners from 14 runners since 2005 and another 2 placed runners. You would have made a small profit of +£4.50 backing all her runners to level stakes.

Both her winners were in 1m4f handicaps where they both carried 8-08 – 9-01

But by backing her runners carrying 9-01 or less with fewer than 21 career starts you would have had 2 winners and 2 seconds from 6 runners.

The 6 runners finished: 151282 and include a 12/1 winner and 16/1 second

GERALD BUTLER

He’s had just the 1 winner since 2004 with another 2 placed to show for his 16 runners. You would have lost -£9.50 backing all his runners to level stakes.

By backing his horses who finished 4th or worse last time out and are carrying 9-02 – 9-09 you would have backed 5 horses who finished: 03913 and include an 11/2 winner and 50/1 third.

JOHN DUNLOP

It may come as a bit of surprise to note that John Dunlop hasn’t had a runner at the meeting since 2006! but between 2004 and 2006 he had 1 winner and 2 places from 7 runners.

His 7 runners finished: 1370746

The most striking thing about his runners during this period was that all 4 that had won their last start finished unplaced.

So by overlooking his last time out winners you would have had an 11/2 winner, 14/1 3rd and 25/1 4th (in a 20 runner handicap) from his 3 qualifying runners.

JOHN GOSDEN

He’s had just 1 winner from his 25 runners at the meeting and shows a large LSL of -£16.00

All 13 of his runners to be sent off at 11/1 or bigger were beaten. Of the 12 horses he’s run at the meeting to have won last time out only one made the frame. The 14 horses he ran that had won a race in the last 3 months were all unplaced! The 10 horses he ran that had 4 or fewer career starts were all unplaced too.

By concentrating on his runners that had run more than 4 times and hadn’t won in the previous 90 days we would have backed 1 winner and 3 places from 8 runners.

The 8 runners finished 13354346 and includes an 8/1 winner and two thirds at 25/1.

STEWART WILLIAMS

He doesn’t have that many runners at the meeting but those he does send to Epsom are worth noting. Since 2004 he’s had 2 winners from 9 runners with a further 3 making the frame. You would also have made a big profit of +£33.00 backing all his runners to level stakes (thanks to a 33/1 winner!).

Both his winners were in handicaps.

But if you had ignored his runners who hadn’t won a race you would have backed 2 winners and 3 placed from 7 runners.

The 7 runners finished: 3134991 and include a 33/1 winner and 20/1 third

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I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at Dandy Nicholls’s record and a few trainers to be wary of at the meeting….

Good luck,
Gavin.

4 for the notebook…..

Monday, May 23rd, 2011

The obvious stars of the weekend were Sole Power, So You Think and Goldikova and after impressive wins and seasonal debut’s they will all go to Ascot as very well fancied runners in their respective races (Kings Stand, Prince of Wales Stakes and Queen Anne)

…..but there were a few other horses that caught my eye who will have various other mid-Season targets.

LAUGHING LASHES

After disappointing in our 1000 Guineas it was good to see her come back to form with her running on 3rd in the Irish version yesterday. Even though she has form on good to firm going she really needs some cut to show her best. With the Irish Oaks nearly always run in softish conditions (in 2007 & 2009 is was bog-like conditions) I think connections must be eyeing up that race for Laughing Lashes.

DUNGANNON

He was well fancied for Goodwood’s opening 6f handicap on Saturday after an unlucky run at Ascot on his previous start but despite being beaten only 2 lengths he looked to me like a horse wanting a step up to 7 furlongs. He’s entered for the Wokingham at Royal Ascot but as he may struggle to make the line-up for that I think he’ll probably end up running in the Buckingham Palace Handicap instead. It’s run over 7 furlongs as the last race on the Friday and with Ascot being a track he’s consistently run well at I’ll be watching closely when the entries are made.

PROHIBIT

I can’t believe that he has been campaigned at 5 furlongs for so long as to me he is a horse absolutely crying out for a step up to 6. You only have to bring up his Racing Post form and read his comments to see this is the case. ‘kept on well inside final furlong’ , ’strong run….finished well’, ‘kept on inside last’, kept on inside furlong’ are just a few from his most recent 5f runs and they all seem to point to a need for further. The trainer obviously isn’t planning some coup with him because the days of him being able to run in a handicap are well and truly over, not to mention the fact that his form is there for everyone to see and contains no surprises, so what he’s playing at I just don’t know. Prohibit is a very consistent  sprinter who wants 6 furlongs and when he gets it he should be able to bag the Group race he deserves.

HAZELRIGG

The draw at York for their sprint races now favours those drawn low so Hazelrigg’s 5th place finish from a high draw looked like a return to form for this sprint handicapper.  I’m sure his shrewd trainer will find a race for him shortly and as he’s always run well at Haydock in the past it wouldn’t surprise me if he was running there some time soon.

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TRAINER STATS (for Epsom)

I’ve been deep in research for the Epsom Derby meeting over the last couple of weeks and taken a look at the top trainers and jockeys and their runners since 2004. I’ll be posting the data covering a few trainers each day and then let you have them all together in one pdf guide at the end of the week (if you want it).

Today we’ll start at the top and take a look at Sir Michael Stoute’s and Aiden O’Brien’s record at the meeting…..

 Sir MICHAEL STOUTE

Since 2004 he’s had 8 winners from 33 runners (24.2%) and shows a small level stakes profit of £2.50. He’s managed at least one winner a year for every year bar 2005.

But…….
All 8 of his winners returned 15/2 or shorter
All 8 of his winners finished in the top 3 on their last start
All 8 of his winners had their last start 20 – 60 days previously
All 8 of his winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts

If you had applied these 4 rules to all Sir Michael Stoute runners at the Epsom Derby meeting since 2004 you would have backed 8 winners from 15 runners (53.3%)  and returned a LSP of +£20.50

The 15 runners finished 112210113142211

RUNNERS FROM THE STOUTE YARD WORTH LAYING…..

ANY RUNNER AT 8/1 OR BIGGER
- 9 of his 33 runners at the track went off at 8/1 or bigger and all were UNPLACED
ANY WITH A NEW JOCKEY ON BOARD
- The 8 runners from the stable to have a different jockey compared to it’s previous run were all beaten (just 1 was placed)

RACES WORTH NOTING

THE DERBY
He’s won the race 3 times since 2003 and also provided the runner up in 2008.
Since 2004 his 7 runners have finished: 1602481
1st (7/2) 6th (33/1) 10th (11/1) 2nd (6/1) 4th (11/2) 8th (10/1) and 1st (6/1)

RACES TO AVOID HIS RUNNERS IN

THE OAKS
His last winner in the Oaks was Unite in 1987. He’s sent out plenty of well fancied losers since then and his record in the race since 2004 has been: 3076

AIDEN O’BRIEN

Since 2004 he’s had just 5 winners from 64 runners (7.8%) and shows a whopping level stakes loss of -£40.66. He sent 14 runners over the Irish sea in 2007 and another 14 again in 2008 for just a solitary winner each year.

But…….
All 5 of his winners came on the Friday of the meeting
All 5 of his winners came in fields of 11 or fewer runners
All 5 of his winners returned 10/1 or shorter
All 5 of his winners had won finished in the top 2 on their previous start

If you had applied these 4 rules to all Aiden O’Brien runners at the Epsom Derby meeting since 2004 you would have backed 5 winners from 10 runners (50%)  and returned a LSP of +£13.33

The 10 runners finished 2164112101

RUNNERS FROM THE O’BRIEN YARD WORTH LAYING…..

MAIDENS
All 6 horses yet to win a race that he’s run at Epsom’s Derby meeting since 2004 have been beaten (2 placed)
ANY RIDDEN BY J HEFFERNAN
The 10 runners from the stable to have been ridden by Heffernan have all been beaten
MALE ONLY RACES
In races at the meeting restricted to just male horses O’Brien runners are 0 – 26 since 2004 (5 placed)
SATURDAY RUNNERS
His runners on the second day of the 2 day meeting are 0 – 31 since 2004 (5 placed)

RACES WORTH NOTING

CORONATION CUP
4 wins since 2004 is pretty impressive and unlike the Derby he doesn’t send loads of runners to the race each year. If you leave out his two pace-makers (200/1 and 125/1), who both finished last, his runners have all finished in the top 5. The full breakdown is: 51412130519

RACES TO AVOID

THE DERBY
He won back to back races in 2001/2002 but his last 31 runners in the Derby were all beaten. He did have the runner up in 2007, ‘09 and ‘10.
 
His runners since 2004 finished:05900380P25890000560002347245
 

OTHER TRAINERS OF NOTE:

CLIVE BRITTAIN

He’s had 2 winners and 6 places from his 25 runners at the meeting and shows a LSL of -£10.00

But if you forget his runners in female only races and backed those that finished in the top 3 last time out you would have had 2 winners and 4 placed horses (from 9) for a small LSP of £6.00.

The 7 runners finished: 106231220 and as well as the two winners at 7/1 and 6/1 includes a 33/1 second, 14/1 second and 16/1 third.

ANDREW BALDING

He’s had 2 winners from his 27 runners at the meeting and shows a small LSP of +£2.50

But by forgetting the females, forgetting those at 28/1 or bigger and forgetting any that ran at 1m4f or further you would have had 2 winners and 5 placed horses (from 17) for a small LSP of £11.50. This includes a 20/1 winner and places at 20/1 twice and 16/1.

The 17 runners finished: 800202156754410230

MARK JOHNSTON

He’s had 3 winners from his 56 runners at the meeting and shows a massive LSL of -£39.00

But by sticking to those under 8/1 running in class 2 handicaps over 1mile – 1m3f you would have had 3 winners (from 7) for a small LSP of £10.00.

The 7 runners finished: 1701160

HENRY CECIL

Runners have been few and far between for this once great stable since 2004, with just 10 runners at the meeting. Those 10 runners have produced 2 winners though for a small LSP of +£8.50

But if you had backed all of his runners that had raced at least 5 times in their career at 10/1 or under you would have had 2 winners and 1 placed horse (from 4) for a decent enough LSP of +£14.50.

The 4 runners finished: 1219

I’ll be back tomorrow with Saeed Bin Suroor and Richard Hannon amongst others…..

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

We had a good weekend covering 4 races for the trends guides with both Irish Guineas winners tipped (we had the 1000 Guineas 1-2-3 as our top-rated horses) and our rare each way selection Prohibit running a great race in the Temple Stakes. All were available at much bigger odds than they returned and ensured another great few days for our customers.

Subscriptions are now being taken for the end of May and the whole month of June. With both the Epsom Derby meeting and Royal Ascot getting full coverage it’s going to be a very busy month for us.

It’s just £34.95 for every guide up until 1st July 2011 and if you buy before Thursday you’ll be in time to get the Brigadier Gerard Sandown evening meeting guide.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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TRAINER TRACK STATS

Until 6pm tonight I’m offering the 2011 Flat Season 2yo TTS guide for just £9.99.

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

There haven’t been too many runners so far this Season but the results have been excellent with our 9 runners finishing 531291211 including two winners at 15-2. It all means we’re over 14.5pts up to level stakes at SP!

(Please note: This price is for the guide only and does not include the daily selection service)

Good luck,
Gavin.

The weekend starts here…..

Friday, May 20th, 2011

I’ve got a PTA Quiz at the school tonight where there’s a curry supper and a bar which should make for a very entertaining evening. There’s also a cash prize on offer this time so I’ve been swotting up on my general knowledge and watching Egg-heads every night on BBC2.

The last 2 we’ve been to have seen our team storm into an early lead and then fall apart as the wine flows and the night progresses. A little bit of alcohol is supposed to be a good aid to remembering things but we always seem to take it a bit too far and end up hardly able to write the answers down come the last round. At the last quiz I remember buying every bottle of wine that was left unsold (all proceeds go to the school you understand) and carrying on the party back at our house. A great night but not such a great morning!

Anyway the upshot of it all is that I doubt I’ll be in a fit state tomorrow morning to post my tips for the day, so I’ve done it now. With just about 50% of the days racing made up of handicaps it looks a day to keep the punting small, and I mean small! I’ll probably just have a little each way Lucky 15 on these 4……

 4.05 Haydock

I’ve made no secret of the fact that I’m following the form of the Pastoral Player handicap at Newmarket on 1000 Guineas Day and it’s provided me with a few nice pay days recently (Hawkeyethenoo 12/1, Novellen Lad 20/1 and Tiddliwinks placed at 40’s). There’s a runner in this race who also ran at Newmarket although he was a 66/1 outsider that day and ran well down the field. But he was very consistent last year when trained by Marco Botti and if his slipping handicap rating has now got him competitive he may surprise at a big price.

Rocket Rob has finished 12th of 12, 14th of 17 and 18th of 24 in his three runs this year so you may not fancy following me in on this one. I’m definitely backing him more in hope than expectation.

3.40 York

Another couple of sprinters from THAT race contesting this are Barney McGrew and Johannes. I backed Johannes last time out over course and distance but as it turned out he didn’t have the luck of the draw with low numbers dominating that day. He hasn’t fared any better this time with stall 17 so I won’t be backing him here although I will be backing Barney McGrew who is drawn 4. He suffered a nightmare run last time out at York where nothing went right for him and granted a clearer run here I fancy this course and distance winner to be right in the mix. 

2.45 Goodwood

Cumulus Nimbus has been set some really tough asks of late with 3 Listed races, a Group 3 and a handicap over too short a distance making up his last 5 runs. I’ve been wating for him to step up to 1m4f in a handicap for some time now and for the first time he’s got those race conditions. He’s run very well on the two occasions he’s visited Goodwood and I expect another big run from him here.

 2.30 Haydock

This is always a really tough race to sort out and the winner usually ends up being pretty decent. I did the trends on the race yesterday and it threw up a shortlist of 5 from which I made my choice however having now seen the odds I wish I could change my selection because the 25/1 on King Of Jazz looks enormous. Ryan Moore rides for Hannon and on his 3rd to Libranno last year he should be in the shake-up.

4.05 Haydock: Rocket Rob
3.40 York: Barney McGrew
2.45 Goodwood: Cumulus Nimbus
2.30 Haydock: King Of Jazz

Each Way Lucky 15

If you want my Nap of the day and a more realistic price then I’ll be having my biggest bet on Dunboyne Express in the Irish 2000 Guineas.

Good luck whatever you’re backing!

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PADDOCK WATCHING

If anyone wants to download a copy of Dee’s Paddock Watching guide then I’ve transferred it to a pdf manual and uploaded it here >>>> Paddock Guide

It’s a one click, direct access link that takes you straight to the Guide. No signups, no details required and absolutely no payment whatsoever!

And if that’s got you in the mood for some FREE stuff then I’ve got a couple of guides that I’ll be giving away next week looking at the Trainer and Jockey stats for Epsom’s Derby Meeting. (Festival Trends Subscribers can download the Trainer Guide now from the Members Area)

On Monday: I’ve taken a look at 24 trainers and examined their record at the meeting.

Want to know the type of horse a top stable has sent to Epsom which has seen their runners finish 11221111?

or the record of one of the biggest yards in the country. 31 consecutive losers and just 4 placed!

or did you know by simply ignoring a certain trainers last time out winners you would have had an 11/2 winner, 14/1 3rd and 25/1 4th (in a 20 runner handicap) from his 3 qualifying runners.

I’ve researched them all and you can have the results of my hard work COMPLETELY 100% FREE starting Monday.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Catch up….

Wednesday, May 18th, 2011

I’ve finally managed to sort out the problems with my email responder so we’re now back in business although I wasn’t able to post over the weekend as I was in Newmarket with Matt and his syndicate members enjoying a fantastic day out (and night!). You’ve probably read the report on Matt’s Geegeez blog (and seen the photo’s) so I won’t bore you further with the details of the coach excursion other than to say that a trip to the gallops, a tour of Julia Fielden’s stable, bacon butties in the Wheatsheaf Inn and The National Stud was an extremely pleasant way to spend a morning.

We then spent the afternoon at the track turning a great day into a brilliant one! Gary got the ball rolling with Benadonner in the first at 16/1 and I then took over with 3 winners on the bounce - Drunken Sailor (4/1), Codemaster (7/2) and Novellen Lad (16/1). The last named is another horse to come out of the Pastoral Player sprint handicap on 1000 Guineas day although following that race form later in the day was to prove quite expensive. I also backed Worthadd each way in the Lockinge and had my biggest bet of the day on ‘Sir’ Henry Cecil’s Glencadam Gold in the 3.25.

Things took a turn for the worse after that as Hamoody got well and truly stuffed, Silah failed to keep a straight line and got caught close home and Jake The Snake never landed a blow in the last. It meant I lost a few quid back to the bookies but it wasn’t anywhere near enough to ruin the day or indeed the weekend. I’d covered the hotel, food, drink, petrol, bridge toll and punting and still made it home with a sizeable chunk of bookmaker money (my favourite kind).

It wasn’t the only thing I came home with either as I brought the names of a couple of horses back with me to enter into my notebook…..

VIVA VETTORI (Handicap over 10f)

David Elsworth’s horses are still running terribly as can be seen by his runners in the last 14 days - 8th of 18, 8/8, 9/12, 7/9, 5/9, 9/10, 10/12, 3/19, 5/13, 12/13 and 7/13. That’s 11 horses with only 3 finishing in the top half and non better than 3rd while 5 finished in the last 3 home!

However, the last horse he ran, Viva Vettori, showed signs that maybe things were about to change. Running over an inadequate trip he was slowly away and detached from the field for quite some way in the race. From the 3 furlong pole he really found his stride though and was staying on very nicely at the finish to be beaten just over 3 lengths. He is definitely worth noting when he next runs if stepping back up to 10 furlongs. If the stable begins to hit form in the meantime then it will be a maximum bet for me.

CODEMASTER (Jersey Stakes, Royal Ascot)

The King Charles II race that Codemaster won on Saturday is a great trial for the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot and his 2 length beating of a 103 rated filly on his seasonal debut looked very impressive.  He showed good acceleration to move up between the 2f and 1f poles and then ran on really well to the line. He has good form in big fields, he has won on varying ground conditions, he doesn’t mind a straight course and he looks to have improved over the Winter. All in all he defintely looks a prime candidate for the 7f opening race on the Wednesday of the Royal meeting in June.

———-

I also took note of a 2yo who ran on Monday night. I don’t usually pay too much attention to 2yo races at this time of the year but I had a runner from my TTS Guide in the race and having backed it I wanted to see how it got on. Mick Channon’s Arnold Lane was our runner and he duly obliged at the very generous price of 15/2 but it was the 3rd horse in the race that really caught my eye.

SHERE KHAN (6f 2yo race)

He travelled really well throughout the race and didn’t get the clearest of passages in the final furlong but was running on nicely at the end without being knocked about. He’s now run twice over 5 furlongs and finished 3rd both times but I’m sure there’s a race for him now that the 6f 2yo races have started to appear.

 ———–

Apart from the AW Horses we have running today there’s only one other horse I’m interested in and that’s Picture Editor in the Goodwood 4.20. Forget his last run as he was employed as a pacemaker for Frankel in the Greenham and as he’s bred for middle distances it was no surprise to see him left well behind by that one! It will be a completely different story today and I reckon he can show his true colours and force his way into the Derby picture. 9/2 looks a fair price to me

He’s also 66/1 for the Derby and at those odds I can’t resist a cheeky tenner each way. There’s nothing in this years middle distance 3yo crop to get excited about yet so a nice win today will put Picture Editor right back into the frame.

————

Trainer Track Stats

It’s been a quiet start for the 2yo TTS Guide with only 6 runners so far but they have finished 531291 with the two winners returning 4/1 and 15/2. That means we’re already 7.5pts up for the season.

With the 6f juvenile races now starting and a number of trainers featured in the guide starting their TTS Seasons from June I think we can expect to see a few more selections in the coming weeks but as it is a particular type of race we’re concentrating on with this Guide it’s never going to generate stacks of runners.

So if you’re looking for a selective service that rewards your patience then my Juvenile TTS Guide may be for you. And it’s only £27 !

Give it a trial for a month and if you’re not convinced at the end of 30 days let me know and I’ll give you your money back. No questions asked!

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

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I’m really glad that everyone seems to have enjoyed Dee’s excellent post on paddock watching. I didn’t get the chance to put it into practice at Newmarket as I was firmly ensconced in the bar but there will be plenty of other opportunities this Summer. If you haven’t read it yet then it’s the previous post or you can now find it on the left hand menu or you can simply click here.

I will also be putting it together in a pdf manual which you’ll be able to download from tomorrow.

Thanks for all your kind comments. And of course my thanks again to Dee for taking the time to write what was a very thorough and informative piece.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Paddock watching (again)….

Monday, May 16th, 2011

If you have ever been to the races chances are you’ve been down to the parade ring to watch the horses go round and round before the jockeys get on board and are led onto the course for the race. You’ll probably have noticed that quite a lot of people do this before the race and it can draw quite a crowd. So what’s all the fuss about? Surely they’re not all here to check out the stable lads/lasses as they lead their charges around or to see if they can spot someone famous in the parade ring.

No, quite a few of the people in the crowd will be checking out the runners to see which ones are looking fit, healthy and read to run the race of their lives. Of course, they may be looking to spot the ones who are unfit, unhealthy as well but either way they’re giving themselves an extra edge in deciding who to back or who not to back. So stop looking at the people and start looking at the horses.

Mr Ed apart horses, of course, can’t speak but they can tell you an awful lot if you know what to look for.

And luckily for us we have a nagnagnag reader who knows exactly what to look for and she’s kindly agreed to give us a master class in paddock watching. So it’s over to Dee Thompson who will tell you all you need to know………

Actually before Dee starts here’s a diagram of a horse with the technical parts of its body labelled (for those of you who don’t know your fetlock from your forelock)

partsofhorse

Clues from the paddock

Horses like humans can have good and bad days, you know those days you wake up and feel a bit sluggish, you dont have your usual energy or feel mentally a bit out of sorts and certainly don’t feel your best and other days you feel fantastic bursting with energy, happy to be alive, and feel like you could conquer the world. Well horses are the same, some days they feel like they are world beaters and other days they feel like they would rather be at home having a lazy day. Breeding, form, statistics, are just parts of the racing puzzle, one of the most important bits of the puzzle is how the horse is feeling and looking on the day of the race. How it turns up at the racecourse following its journey and ultimately how it looks in the parade ring.

As well as working as a paddock judge for the last 6 years I have been looking at horses in the parade ring for the last 30 years and have seen enough to know that there are some very important clues to be found in the paddock. Recognising that the mental attitude of the horse is also very important to observe, I did a horse whispering course to increase my understanding of horse body language and attitude.

Its not all about finding the winner from the paddock, it can also be a way of avoiding a losing short priced favourite, I have seen many fancied horses who have the best form running for the best trainers who turn up looking negative and have lost. I constantly see the best looking horse in the parade ring win at all prices. Last year alone I found 3 winners at prices over 100-1 from the paddock and my biggest of all last year was at amazing odds of 260-1.

Because a lot of horses tend to run regularly at the same tracks by regularly visiting the parade ring you get to recognise what your horse looks like on its winning day and you then can often work out when to avoid it and when to back it. You often see your horse coming to peak condition, see it win, and then see its decline.

There are several factors to take into account which I will cover in greater detail in coming blogs

1) Coat
2) Fitness and condition
3) Body type specifics for different distances
4) Athleticism and movement
5) Attitude and body language
6) Other variables: sweating, ears, tails and quirks.

COAT

I have to say that judging a horse’s coat is far easier in the sunshine, and it can be difficult to assess in poor light, and even more so on cold or wet days when the horses are covered in blankets but even then you can see enough on their face and neck to get an idea of the condition of the coat.

The coat can provide clues to the horse’s well being and general health. If the horse has rich colour, especially bronzing and the coat is shiny and reflecting sunlight this is about the best you can get. If a coat is dull and dry and absorbing sunlight then this horse may not be at his peak, or maybe somehow lacking in optimum nutrition. If a horse is from a top stable and fed the best nutritional feed its coat is generally going to be in good condition, in these cases you have to take other factors more into consideration mainly their mental alertness and demeanour which I will explain in more detail later.

I wouldn’t rule out a horse because its coat was dull, if it ticked all the other boxes, but if you find one that ticks all the boxes and its coat is shiny and bronzing then you have found a good one indeed.

Do be aware that this is not an exact science and there are horses that do turn up looking absolutely outstanding every single time, and run badly every single time, I have a list of those, you can get caught out, but if you get to know them you get to avoid them.

Coat Variables:

Positives:

Shiny - characterised by the coat gleaming, the sun bounces off it, it has a clear bright look to it.
Good colour – has strong colour
Dappled – a sign that a horse is in exceptional good health, signified by gleaming circles which can be seen just under the skin

Negatives:

Dull and dry – characterised by the coat lacking any shine and brightness, it appears dry and bristly
Poor colour – looking wishy washy

Greys coats’ are particularly difficult to assess, although every now and again you see a grey whose coat is particularly shiny, if you see this and its ticking all the boxes then you have found a good one.

FITNESS AND CONDITION

Horses are athletes so fitness is a very important factor. Often at the start of their training preparation they can be overweight and soft, or can put weight on due to being unable to train because of being sidelined due to injury or illness. Through training and racing they become fit and firm but there comes a point for some horses if given a hard season they start to lose condition and can looked tucked up and scrawny. The age of a horse can be a factor, younger horses taking less time to reach peak fitness compared to older ones.

Fitness variables:

Unfit/soft – horse has big stomach, soft muscles, looks a bit wobbly or flabby in stomach region, lack of muscle definition in hind quarters, lack of muscle definition on neck, this all indicates horse is not fit and ready to win and may need a few more outings before becoming totally fit. Some horses have deep girths and can appear overweight, be sure to check for tightness.

However some really big chunky sprinters can look a little soft and still be fit and powerful enough to win. Whereas the more lean built longer distance horses really need to be showing muscle definition and tightness and hint of ribs to be able to be fit enough to win.

Fit/very fit – horse appearing rock hard. Muscle definitions can be seen clearly in hind quarters and neck, look for defining line on hind quarters and seeing the ribs in stayers is an added sign of fitness. In some cases a rippling muscle can be seen just behind the saddle indicating extreme fitness.

Over the top or tucked up – horses that have had a hard season can start to physically decline, you will see a lack of condition, they appear bony or light behind the saddle. This can be seen in horses that have run too many times in a season or have been overtrained.

BODY TYPES AND DISTANCE

In the parade ring you will see horses all shapes and sizes, for sprint races of 5 furlongs and 6 furlongs you ideally want a big strong horse with a wide chest allowing plenty of room for a good set of lungs and heart, and big strong hind quarters. This shape is best for sprinters but not confined to them. These types can take longer to get fit, and sometimes can be difficult to determine their fitness purely by looking at them.

Then you have light framed horses which look leaner, more angular and longer in the back, this body type is more usual for longer distance horses, these horses require less work to achieve full fitness, and their fitness levels can easily be seen.

Fillies and mares can appear light especially if they are parading next to big strong colts or geldings this doesn’t necessarily mean they are weak.

There is a negative build to be seen in the parade ring and that is a weak horse, characterised by lack of size and scope, they can appear very skinny sometimes small and bony very narrow behind the saddle with a narrow chest and small hindquarters, these horses have no power or strength and usually do nothing in a race.

When you are looking at a parade ring of 2 year old maidens in 5 furlong and 6 furlong races its best to look for the biggest strongest horse that is fit not just for strength and power but its size will give it the confidence to push through smaller horses.

ATHLETICISM AND MOVEMENT

Your horse wants to look athletic in build, well balanced front and back and generally a good shape. Some horses you will see will be higher at the back than the front or very long bodied, these horses are not athletic in appearance. Some horses are bulky at the front with good strong chest muscles but very little at the back end, and the reverse can also be seen, in these cases you have an unbalanced horse that is not athletic in shape and is not a good selection

Some horses are tall and leggy these horses act better on flat galloping tracks and may struggle on tight undulating tracks, whereas smaller compact horses may be more ideally suited to tight turning tracks than there taller leggy counterparts. Likewise the light framed leggy horse is more inclined to cover more ground with its stride, so it is able to stay longer distances.

It is good to observe how the horse carries itself and walks around the parade ring, you want a smooth mover. The ultimate is a horse that looks like it is gliding, this indicates a very good walker.

Generally it is good to see a horse whose hoof print of the hind legs overlap the hoof prints of the forelegs, obviously the overlap can be affected by the relative length of the horse, but generally it is a good guide to how good a mover the horse is. A negative point would be what I call a short walker, where the horse appears to have a scratchy movement and the movement of the hind legs is too short.

As is the case in all sections this is not an exact science and some horses looking funny shapes and some horses that are very short walkers do sometimes win races.

ATTITUDE AND ENERGY

As well as my many years of observing race horses i have done horse whispering courses to gain a greater understanding of reading a horse’s mentality.

Like humans some horses can have off days, some are not in love with the game, some have ran so many times they feel they need a break, some would just rather be home in a field or stable than have to run fast in a race. Some horses on the other hand feel on top of the world, love racing, are happy to be there and are really up for it, both states can be observed in the parade ring.

Ideally you want a horse that looks bright, alert and interested, a horse turning its head towards the handler is a good sign, for sprint races a horse that is on its toes is a positive as long as its not boiling over, whereas for long distance races a relaxed horse is the order of the day as long as with that relaxed state it is obviously bright alert and interested.

Horses communicate with energy and like dogs there can be a ‘top dog’ in the ring dominating the rest, this can sometimes be clearly seen when a horse enters the ring with a presence and its head held high and you see the other runners all holding their heads in a lower position. I have spotted many a top dog situation that have won at all prices, interestingly I’ve also seen obviously submissive horses at short prices expected to win that have lost. One in particular I remember reporting to someone placing a bet that this well fancied hot favourite had such submissive behaviour in the ring it was worth laying as it would never put its head in front, watching the race the horse was full of running coming to challenge the lesser fancied horse which was leading and there was no way it would go past, in fact it was reported to have ‘jinked left’ a few strides before the post, and it finished second.

You always want a horse with bright energy and sometimes what I call strong energy where you see the handler being slightly pulled by the horse, rather than the other way around where you see the horse plodding heavily around the ring almost being dragged by the handler, these horses are truly lethargic, tired, or wishing they weren’t there and are best left alone.

Immaturity can be spotted especially in 2 and 3 year olds who haven’t raced before, you may see the horse rearing up and being unruly, some horses can hardly walk correctly, and some are very vocal, its often best to avoid these as they are not focussed enough or mature enough to run a true race.

Some horses can appear nervous and timid you can spot this by a nervous look in their face, or their overall timid body language with head particularly low, these horses are rarely going to forge ahead to win races and definitely are not going to barge through small gaps in races if needed to.

SWEATING AND OTHER VARIABLES

All horses are individuals so there isn’t a hard and fast rule here. I remember a horse winning the Derby called Benny The Dip – affectionately named Benny The Drip because of how much he sweated, but it didn’t stop him winning the greatest race of all.

When considering sweating do consider the weather, most horses may sweat in the heat of the sun but if you have a horse sweating on an icy day at Hexham then you know something could be wrong.

Light sweating especially on the neck is a positive sign, usually means the horse is up for it, sweating all over can be a sign that the horse is extremely nervous or not 100% well, some horses who have had a long season and are over the top can appear to be sweating all over as well. White foam sweat between the hind legs is said to be a negative as this is a sign of excess adrenaline meaning the horse may be too worked up and nervous, however some horses do still win races in this state.

Ears

The positioning of a horse’s ears can be an added clue. Ideally you want a horse with its ears pricked upright but moving towards sounds showing its interested in its surrounding. If a horse has its ears pinned back all of the time, this is an indication that the horse is in a bad mood or feeling aggressive, this horse will probably not give its best performance. Limp ears that flop over can suggest the horse is not 100% or that it is not at all focussed, again you probably would not get the best result from this animal.

Tails

For different reasons the horse may hold its tail close to its hindquarters, it could be a filly or mare who feels threatened, however a flat looking tail can indicate low energy, you will usually find the horses with the best energy, coats and overall look have an arched tail which is a very positive sign.

As with all sections there are exceptions to the rule!

And finally having made your selection, if possible, you should observe its behaviour when a jockey gets on board. Some horses appearing very quiet in the parade ring can suddenly burst into excited enthusiasm when the jockey gets on board and ultimately you should watch your selection go to post to check that it doesn’t lose the race before it starts by expanding too much energy on its way down to the starting position.

———

So there you have it. Everything you should be looking out for in the parade ring. Whether you’re a backer or a layer, a casual race-goer or a pro gambler or you just want to show off to your mates next time you go racing I’m sure you’ve managed to take something from Dee’s excellent and informative post.

I’m also sure you like to show your appreciation for the time she has taken to write the post by leaving your comments below.

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s been a bad start to the week….

Thursday, May 12th, 2011

I had a really good day on Saturday as my big bet on Haweyethenoo came in at 12/1 and more than paid for all my smaller losing bets. In a stroke of sheer genius (for sheer genius read extreme jamminess) I also backed Eradicate, who you probably know I’ve been following all Season, at 20/1 for a repeat win in the Swinton. I’d noticed he was being quietly backed throughout the morning and Victor Chandler was the first to cut him to 10/1 in the early prices while everyone else was a little behind him in taking evasive action. This looked significant to me as Victor Chandler has horses in the Henderson stable so I quickly grabbed the 20’s and happily watched his price collapse to 15/2. I was then even happier as he strolled to an easy win. It’s difficult to see how he could win this competitive handicap so easily off top-weight given the form of his recent runs but Henderson isn’t the most trustworthy of trainers and he’s obviously been plotting a repeat win in the race with this horse all season. I wasn’t complaining though as I’ve now paid for the family Summer holiday! Viva Espana…..

How quickly things can change though…

Things got off to a bad start this week when the service I use to let you all know when I’ve posted on the blog has been playing up and won’t let me send out any notification emails. That’s why you haven’t heard from me since the weekend despite me writing out Dee’s paddock watching notes. I know a lot of you will be keen to read the feature so you can find the complete post by clicking here http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/paddock-watching/.  I’d be amazed if you can’t find something useful in her master class. As a lot of readers won’t know I’ve even posted her notes I’ll put it all together in a pdf Guide which you’ll be able to download from next week. I’ll also put it on a tab in the left hand menu so you can always reference it direct from the Blog.

Anyway, after suffering bad luck, mishaps and umpteen bad beats on the poker table this week it all came to a head yesterday when the punting Gods got their revenge for my winning Saturday. Diescentric finished last, Barefoot Lady didn’t get back up, Genki ran like a step up in trip was needed, Satwa Moon ran like a step down in trip was needed and then I thought with my luck being well and truly out I’d give Sud Pacifique a miss in the last. Typical!

Still every cloud has a silver lining. At least I spared you all my dodgy fancies this time!

You’re not so lucky today as these are the horses I’ll be backing this afternoon on Channel 4…..

1.30 York

I told you a couple of weeks ago that the form of the sprint handicap on Newmarket 1000 Guineas Day (won by Pastoral Player) was worth following and after Haweyethenoo won on Saturday and Tiddliwinks ran a blinder in Group company yesterday I may have actually been right about something for once!

So in today’s opener I’ll be looking no further than Richard Fahey’s JOHANNES who ran 8th in that race.

2.00 York

MIDDAY has to give 5lb to her rivals and this is a pretty decent field of fillies and mares but I still fancy her to win nicely and will be re-investing a little of my winnings at anything above even money.

2.30 York

Having backed World Domination for the Derby I’d love to see him win this but the stats are against him and he missed some vital work in his preparation for this race. It looks a hot Dante this year and 9/4 looks a little short with so many negatives surrounding him. So today I’ll be backing Aiden O’Brien’s SEVILLE who has the best form in the book by a mile and comes from a stable who are winning just about every Derby trial going this Season.

3.00 York

I liked the way Justonefortheroad came with a steady run to win the Thirsk Hunt Cup and he looks a horse worth following in these big Mile handicaps but his outside draw could pose a few problems here. Balcarce Nov has a great chance on his Seasonal debut run but he ran terribly in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time out. If you can forgive him that poor showing he may be a decent each way bet at 14’s from a plum draw. The one I’m going with also has to be forgiven a bad run last time out when he played up before the race and ran dismally behind Wannabe King at Sandown. With Frankie doing the steering today I think we’ll see a different DANCE AND DANCE to the one we saw at Sandown and 14/1 looks worth chancing given his previous form.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Paddock watching…..

Monday, May 9th, 2011

If you have ever been to the races chances are you’ve been down to the parade ring to watch the horses go round and round before the jockeys get on board and are led onto the course for the race. You’ll probably have noticed that quite a lot of people do this before the race and it can draw quite a crowd. So what’s all the fuss about? Surely they’re not all here to check out the stable lads/lasses as they lead their charges around or to see if they can spot someone famous in the parade ring.

No, quite a few of the people in the crowd will be checking out the runners to see which ones are looking fit, healthy and read to run the race of their lives. Of course, they may be looking to spot the ones who are unfit, unhealthy as well but either way they’re giving themselves an extra edge in deciding who to back or who not to back. So stop looking at the people and start looking at the horses. 

Mr Ed apart horses, of course, can’t speak but they can tell you an awful lot if you know what to look for.

And luckily for us we have a nagnagnag reader who knows exactly what to look for and she’s kindly agreed to give us a master class in paddock watching. So it’s over to Dee Thompson who for the next few days will tell you all you need to know………

Actually before Dee starts here’s a diagram of a horse with the technical parts of its body labelled (for those of you who don’t know your fetlock from your forelock)

partsofhorse

Clues from the paddock

Horses like humans can have good and bad days, you know those days you wake up and feel a bit sluggish, you dont have your usual energy or feel mentally a bit out of sorts and certainly don’t feel your best and other days you feel fantastic bursting with energy, happy to be alive, and feel like you could conquer the world. Well horses are the same, some days they feel like they are world beaters and other days they feel like they would rather be at home having a lazy day. Breeding, form, statistics, are just parts of the racing puzzle, one of the most important bits of the puzzle is how the horse is feeling and looking on the day of the race. How it turns up at the racecourse following its journey and ultimately how it looks in the parade ring.

As well as working as a paddock judge for the last 6 years I have been looking at horses in the parade ring for the last 30 years and have seen enough to know that there are some very important clues to be found in the paddock. Recognising that the mental attitude of the horse is also very important to observe, I did a horse whispering course to increase my understanding of horse body language and attitude.

Its not all about finding the winner from the paddock, it can also be a way of avoiding a losing short priced favourite, I have seen many fancied horses who have the best form running for the best trainers who turn up looking negative and have lost. I constantly see the best looking horse in the parade ring win at all prices. Last year alone I found 3 winners at prices over 100-1 from the paddock and my biggest of all last year was at amazing odds of 260-1.

Because a lot of horses tend to run regularly at the same tracks by regularly visiting the parade ring you get to recognise what your horse looks like on its winning day and you then can often work out when to avoid it and when to back it. You often see your horse coming to peak condition, see it win, and then see its decline.

There are several factors to take into account which I will cover in greater detail in coming blogs

1) Coat
2) Fitness and condition
3) Body type specifics for different distances
4) Athleticism and movement
5) Attitude and body language
6) Other variables: sweating, ears, tails and quirks.

COAT

I have to say that judging a horse’s coat is far easier in the sunshine, and it can be difficult to assess in poor light, and even more so on cold or wet days when the horses are covered in blankets but even then you can see enough on their face and neck to get an idea of the condition of the coat.

The coat can provide clues to the horse’s well being and general health. If the horse has rich colour, especially bronzing and the coat is shiny and reflecting sunlight this is about the best you can get. If a coat is dull and dry and absorbing sunlight then this horse may not be at his peak, or maybe somehow lacking in optimum nutrition. If a horse is from a top stable and fed the best nutritional feed its coat is generally going to be in good condition, in these cases you have to take other factors more into consideration mainly their mental alertness and demeanour which I will explain in more detail later.

I wouldn’t rule out a horse because its coat was dull, if it ticked all the other boxes, but if you find one that ticks all the boxes and its coat is shiny and bronzing then you have found a good one indeed.

Do be aware that this is not an exact science and there are horses that do turn up looking absolutely outstanding every single time, and run badly every single time, I have a list of those, you can get caught out, but if you get to know them you get to avoid them.

Coat Variables:

Positives:

Shiny - characterised by the coat gleaming, the sun bounces off it, it has a clear bright look to it.
Good colour – has strong colour
Dappled – a sign that a horse is in exceptional good health, signified by gleaming circles which can be seen just under the skin

Negatives:

Dull and dry – characterised by the coat lacking any shine and brightness, it appears dry and bristly
Poor colour – looking wishy washy

Greys coats’ are particularly difficult to assess, although every now and again you see a grey whose coat is particularly shiny, if you see this and its ticking all the boxes then you have found a good one.

FITNESS AND CONDITION

Horses are athletes so fitness is a very important factor. Often at the start of their training preparation they can be overweight and soft, or can put weight on due to being unable to train because of being sidelined due to injury or illness. Through training and racing they become fit and firm but there comes a point for some horses if given a hard season they start to lose condition and can looked tucked up and scrawny. The age of a horse can be a factor, younger horses taking less time to reach peak fitness compared to older ones.

Fitness variables:

Unfit/soft – horse has big stomach, soft muscles, looks a bit wobbly or flabby in stomach region, lack of muscle definition in hind quarters, lack of muscle definition on neck, this all indicates horse is not fit and ready to win and may need a few more outings before becoming totally fit. Some horses have deep girths and can appear overweight, be sure to check for tightness.

However some really big chunky sprinters can look a little soft and still be fit and powerful enough to win. Whereas the more lean built longer distance horses really need to be showing muscle definition and tightness and hint of ribs to be able to be fit enough to win.

Fit/very fit – horse appearing rock hard. Muscle definitions can be seen clearly in hind quarters and neck, look for defining line on hind quarters and seeing the ribs in stayers is an added sign of fitness. In some cases a rippling muscle can be seen just behind the saddle indicating extreme fitness.

Over the top or tucked up – horses that have had a hard season can start to physically decline, you will see a lack of condition, they appear bony or light behind the saddle. This can be seen in horses that have run too many times in a season or have been overtrained.

BODY TYPES AND DISTANCE

In the parade ring you will see horses all shapes and sizes, for sprint races of 5 furlongs and 6 furlongs you ideally want a big strong horse with a wide chest allowing plenty of room for a good set of lungs and heart, and big strong hind quarters. This shape is best for sprinters but not confined to them. These types can take longer to get fit, and sometimes can be difficult to determine their fitness purely by looking at them.

Then you have light framed horses which look leaner, more angular and longer in the back, this body type is more usual for longer distance horses, these horses require less work to achieve full fitness, and their fitness levels can easily be seen.

Fillies and mares can appear light especially if they are parading next to big strong colts or geldings this doesn’t necessarily mean they are weak.

There is a negative build to be seen in the parade ring and that is a weak horse, characterised by lack of size and scope, they can appear very skinny sometimes small and bony very narrow behind the saddle with a narrow chest and small hindquarters, these horses have no power or strength and usually do nothing in a race.

When you are looking at a parade ring of 2 year old maidens in 5 furlong and 6 furlong races its best to look for the biggest strongest horse that is fit not just for strength and power but its size will give it the confidence to push through smaller horses.

ATHLETICISM AND MOVEMENT

Your horse wants to look athletic in build, well balanced front and back and generally a good shape. Some horses you will see will be higher at the back than the front or very long bodied, these horses are not athletic in appearance. Some horses are bulky at the front with good strong chest muscles but very little at the back end, and the reverse can also be seen, in these cases you have an unbalanced horse that is not athletic in shape and is not a good selection

Some horses are tall and leggy these horses act better on flat galloping tracks and may struggle on tight undulating tracks, whereas smaller compact horses may be more ideally suited to tight turning tracks than there taller leggy counterparts. Likewise the light framed leggy horse is more inclined to cover more ground with its stride, so it is able to stay longer distances.

It is good to observe how the horse carries itself and walks around the parade ring, you want a smooth mover. The ultimate is a horse that looks like it is gliding, this indicates a very good walker.

Generally it is good to see a horse whose hoof print of the hind legs overlap the hoof prints of the forelegs, obviously the overlap can be affected by the relative length of the horse, but generally it is a good guide to how good a mover the horse is. A negative point would be what I call a short walker, where the horse appears to have a scratchy movement and the movement of the hind legs is too short.

As is the case in all sections this is not an exact science and some horses looking funny shapes and some horses that are very short walkers do sometimes win races.

ATTITUDE AND ENERGY

As well as my many years of observing race horses i have done horse whispering courses to gain a greater understanding of reading a horse’s mentality.

Like humans some horses can have off days, some are not in love with the game, some have ran so many times they feel they need a break, some would just rather be home in a field or stable than have to run fast in a race. Some horses on the other hand feel on top of the world, love racing, are happy to be there and are really up for it, both states can be observed in the parade ring.

Ideally you want a horse that looks bright, alert and interested, a horse turning its head towards the handler is a good sign, for sprint races a horse that is on its toes is a positive as long as its not boiling over, whereas for long distance races a relaxed horse is the order of the day as long as with that relaxed state it is obviously bright alert and interested.

Horses communicate with energy and like dogs there can be a ‘top dog’ in the ring dominating the rest, this can sometimes be clearly seen when a horse enters the ring with a presence and its head held high and you see the other runners all holding their heads in a lower position. I have spotted many a top dog situation that have won at all prices, interestingly I’ve also seen obviously submissive horses at short prices expected to win that have lost. One in particular I remember reporting to someone placing a bet that this well fancied hot favourite had such submissive behaviour in the ring it was worth laying as it would never put its head in front, watching the race the horse was full of running coming to challenge the lesser fancied horse which was leading and there was no way it would go past, in fact it was reported to have ‘jinked left’ a few strides before the post, and it finished second.

You always want a horse with bright energy and sometimes what I call strong energy where you see the handler being slightly pulled by the horse, rather than the other way around where you see the horse plodding heavily around the ring almost being dragged by the handler, these horses are truly lethargic, tired, or wishing they weren’t there and are best left alone.

Immaturity can be spotted especially in 2 and 3 year olds who haven’t raced before, you may see the horse rearing up and being unruly, some horses can hardly walk correctly, and some are very vocal, its often best to avoid these as they are not focussed enough or mature enough to run a true race.

Some horses can appear nervous and timid you can spot this by a nervous look in their face, or their overall timid body language with head particularly low, these horses are rarely going to forge ahead to win races and definitely are not going to barge through small gaps in races if needed to.

 

SWEATING AND OTHER VARIABLES

All horses are individuals so there isn’t a hard and fast rule here. I remember a horse winning the Derby called Benny The Dip – affectionately named Benny The Drip because of how much he sweated, but it didn’t stop him winning the greatest race of all.

When considering sweating do consider the weather, most horses may sweat in the heat of the sun but if you have a horse sweating on an icy day at Hexham then you know something could be wrong.

Light sweating especially on the neck is a positive sign, usually means the horse is up for it, sweating all over can be a sign that the horse is extremely nervous or not 100% well, some horses who have had a long season and are over the top can appear to be sweating all over as well. White foam sweat between the hind legs is said to be a negative as this is a sign of excess adrenaline meaning the horse may be too worked up and nervous, however some horses do still win races in this state.

Ears

The positioning of a horse’s ears can be an added clue. Ideally you want a horse with its ears pricked upright but moving towards sounds showing its interested in its surrounding. If a horse has its ears pinned back all of the time, this is an indication that the horse is in a bad mood or feeling aggressive, this horse will probably not give its best performance. Limp ears that flop over can suggest the horse is not 100% or that it is not at all focussed, again you probably would not get the best result from this animal.

Tails

For different reasons the horse may hold its tail close to its hindquarters, it could be a filly or mare who feels threatened, however a flat looking tail can indicate low energy, you will usually find the horses with the best energy, coats and overall look have an arched tail which is a very positive sign.

As with all sections there are exceptions to the rule!

And finally having made your selection, if possible, you should observe its behaviour when a jockey gets on board. Some horses appearing very quiet in the parade ring can suddenly burst into excited enthusiasm when the jockey gets on board and ultimately you should watch your selection go to post to check that it doesn’t lose the race before it starts by expanding too much energy on its way down to the starting position.

———

So there you have it. Everything you should be looking out for in the parade ring. Whether you’re a backer or a layer, a casual race-goer or a pro gambler or you just want to show off to your mates next time you go racing I’m sure you’ve managed to take something from Dee’s excellent and informative post.

I’m also sure you like to show your appreciation for the time she has taken to write the post by leaving your comments below.

I’m off to Newmarket this weekend where I’ll be putting it all to good use.

Good luck,
Gavin.

 

Saturday infront of the telly….

Friday, May 6th, 2011

With a fantastic days racing at Ascot and Haydock today I won’t be straying too far from the telly or my laptop. Here’s what I’ll be backing…..

The Swinton Hurdle (3.40 Haydock) Trends show that…….

- 11 of the last 12 winners were aged 4-6
- 11 of the last 12 winners were rated between 125-136
- 11 of the last 12 winners had won at least 1 of their last 4 starts

which leaves 7

- 10 of the last 12 winners had raced no more than 9 times

gives us a shortlist of 4: Higgy’s Ragazzo, Andhaar, Tatispout and Remember Now

- 9 of the last 12 winners carried 10-08 or less (2 of 3 exceptions carried 11-04+)
- 9 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (all 3 exceptions finished 10th or worse)
- 9 of the last 12 winners had finished in the top 2 of a handicap hurdle
- 8 of the last 12 winners were from the top 5 in the betting

Which would seem to give both TATISPOUT and REMEMBER NOW an excellent chance according to the trends.

2.50 Ascot

One day I’ll listen to the warnings in my head and steer well clear of these Filly only handicaps but I just can’t help myself. They are a nightmare to solve and my record in them is extremely poor. You may wish to skip to the next race now to save yourself any financial losses…..

The horse I’ll be backing is BAHATI (25/1 Coral) who finished last of 10 on her last run. Not a good start I agree but she did the same thing on her seasonal debut last year and it didn’t stop her from showing excellent form in her next couple of starts over distances that were too short for her. Her second to Seta over 7f last year reads very well. She needs a mile, she’s won on the going although any easing in the ground would help her and finished a very creditable 4th of 17 in one of these types of races at the course last September. Dangers are everywhere and the form of the stable is a big worry so stakes will be extremely small for this one.

3.25 Ascot

29 runners + straight 7 furlongs + Ascot handicap = a recipe for distaster!

My two against the field in this race are HAWEYETHENOO and GOURAY GIRL

We can help our cause a bit by backing with a bookmaker who is offering 1/4 odds for the first 5 home (basically any firm other than Hills, Ladbrokes or Corals). Of course this just ensures the horse you are backing finishes 6th instead of finishing 5th! (see Hamoody last Sunday).

4.35 Ascot

Having completely given up on Berling after his runs at the end of last season he’ll probably come back a different horse this year and trot up here but the horse I really like in this race is the James Fanshawe trained SPENSLEY who rattled up a hat-trick on the all weather at the beginning of last Winter. The race that really caught my eye was the 2nd of his third win when he defeated the Sir Michael Stoute trained Modun by a short-head. As Modun came out next time to win a very competitive 10 furlong handicap at Newbury by 4 lengths the form looks pretty good. Modun won from a rating of 84 that day and has now been raised to a mark of 98! while Spensley, who has since won again, gets to race today off 82. With the stable bang in form (3 winners and a second from their last 4 runners) and the trip and ground no problem I’m expecting a big run from him.

The one I can see being a big danger is the John Gosden lightly raced runner ZUIDER ZEE who seemed to struggle when upped to class 2 races last season. His form is 21317146 but if you take out the 3 runs at class 2 it becomes 21311 although he did manage to finish 4th in the Melrose Handicap at the York Ebor meeting. That kind of form should be enough to put him in the shake-up for this Class 3 handicap.

5.10 Ascot

There’s a very tricky sprint handicap at the end of the card at Ascot which I’m sure Gary will be getting stuck into but I’m going to do my own thing here and back a horse that should appreciate the conditions. He’s a decent sprinter but only when things drop right for him. That means a rating under 95, good to firm going and a 6 furlong trip.

His form when racing off a rating over 95 is 0879008005
but under this mark is 263061122

His form on Good - Firm is 110717924220

His form over 6f on Good/Firm is 110717942
and 
His form at 6f on Good/Firm when rated 94 or under is 1112

Finally his form at Ascot - 6th of 18, 1st of 12, 7th of 26, 2nd of 27

STRIKING SPIRIT runs over 6f at Ascot tomorrow off a rating of 94

The other one I like the look of is MAC GILLE EOIN who has been given a real chance by the handicapper having been dropped to a rating of just 86. He’s been stuck on a rating in the 90’s and 100’s for some time now, in fact the last time he raced on the turf off a mark below 90 was in August 2007! Since then he’s run 24 times on the turf and on the two occassions the handicapper showed any leniency and dropped him to a mark of exactly 90 he finished 1st at Goodwood and 2nd at Epsom. So back on turf, from a plum draw and on a really low handicap mark he could surprise at decent odds.

Remember, do with them what you like: Back them, lay them or ignore them!
Whatever you’re doing, good luck.

—————

WATCHING THE HORSES

After I wrote and posted my piece on Tuesday I mentioned that I would be reading up on the art of paddock watching with the intention of doing a series of posts next week. I’m no expert in this field (although I do know a nice looking filly when I see one) which is why I was planning on getting some reading material to do some swotting up. Unfortunately all the books I’ve ordered are out of stock and I won’t be well read enough before next week.

BUT help is at hand and in fact it’s going to work out even better!

It appears that one of our blog readers IS an expert on studying horses and she has kindly agreed to share her knowledge and experience on the blog. Dee (Thompson) lives in the North East and has 30 years experience of paddock watching including working for a betting syndicate as a paddock judge. She’s done a course on horse whispering and has more hands-on experience than I could ever hope to get and reading a few books will never get me anywhere near her level of knowledge on the art.

She’ll tell you more next week but having spent the last couple of days reading through her notes I can tell you there is a mine of information to be had. I’m really excited about running these blog posts and I’m sure you’ll get loads out of it whether you’re a casual racegoer, an avid racefan or a professional gambler.

If you’ve ever been to the races and wondered what to look for in a horse when they walk around the parade ring then you DO NOT WANT TO MISS next weeks blog.

Good luck,
Gavin.

3 big handicaps. 3 big winners?

Wednesday, May 4th, 2011

I’m taking a look at the 3 big handicaps of the week starting with Wednesdays Chester Cup then Saturdays Swinton Hurdle from Haydock and finally the Victoria Cup from Ascot. Firstly we need a reality check as they are wide open handicaps with big fields. Realistically if we find a place or two then I’ll be more than happy. In these three races last year I tipped Swingkeel, Gloucester and Noble Citizen with the latter getting 4th at 33/1 and getting us our money back at least. The same 3 horses run again this year and all are 33/1 and I for one will be having a small ew investment on them just in case.

Leg 1: CHESTER CUP : WEDNESDAY 2.55

As we all know Chester is a very tight track and its very important to have a prominent position when they turn for home about 4 furlongs out. Last year I really fancied the chances of Swingkeel who was drawn in stall 4 as I believed if he was ridden prominently then he would win. As it transpired he was ridden from midfield whereas the winner Mamlook, who runs again, and 2nd Tastahil, who also runs again, were the ones who were ridden close to the pace. This year Tastahil has a much better draw than last and even with his top weight must have an outstanding chance of winning. Mamlook has been chasing but is no worse off at the weights and 3rd home Halla San if able to overcome his stall 14 is over priced at 25/1. Red Cadeaux was unlucky in running last year but that’s what happens here. The one I’m going to take a chance on is last time out Ripon winner Montaff, he won that race very cosily having been well off the pace, he travelled very easily into contention and quickened up well. Providing he doesn’t get too far back early on I reckon he’s a good thing for the first 4. He showed improved form for the step up in trip last time and was not stopping at the end, the extra trip here shouldn’t be a worry.

Recommended : Montaff 22/1
Saver : Swingkeel 33/1

Leg 2 : Swinton Hurdle : SATURDAY

With a maximum field of 24 Gloucester is assured a run and at 33/1 is well worth a small ew bet but I’m going against last years tip. Last years winner Eradicate comes here out of form and is easily ignored. The two I like here are Orsippus and Tarkari and both are topped priced at 25/1. Orsippus is dropping back in trip having run well for long way at Aintree last time. He did win a Grade 1 hurdle last season and seems to be fairly treated here based on that win. Tarkari has yet to win since coming over from Ireland but has been very highly tried. This does represent a slight drop in class and he could be good value.

Recommended : Orsippus 25/1 and Tarkari 25/1

 

Leg 3 : Victoria Cup : SATURDAY

Last year I tipped fast finishing 4th home Noble Citizen at 33/1 and this year I’m saying the exact same thing. Top priced 33’s with Ladbrokes looks outstanding ew value. With a maximum field of 29 NC is guaranteed a run as he is number 26. For me the danger is the one below him Lutine Belle a 4yo rated 92 with one run this season. It very nearly mirrors last years winner Dandy Boy and at around 18/1 looks terrific value. The biggest worry here is the draw as in the past anything drawn under 10, according to the stats, couldn’t win. BUT don’t forget as Ascot is right handed the stall numbers have now changed so we apparently don’t want a draw from 19 onwards. Confused? I know I am.

Recommended : Noble Citizen 33/1(Ladbrokes only)
Saver : Lutine Belle 18/1

 

Good luck to us all,
Gary .

Frankel-ly amazing…

Tuesday, May 3rd, 2011

Well, he did it and he did it in style. Frankel turned the Guineas into a 1 mile sprint and simply ran his rivals into the ground. Any doubts there might have been about his running style or pulling too hard or the form of his Greenham win were firmly brushed aside as he gave a power packed performance the like of which hasn’t been seen in any Classic in recent times.

Connections have said they’ll now miss the Dante (it would be asking a bit much to run less than 2 weeks after a hard race like that) and probably go for the St James Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1 mile. It’s probably the right decision and gives him the best chance of keeping his unbeaten record intact but I’d really love to see him run in the Derby.

He probably wouldn’t stay and it will be tough to sprint for 12 furlongs but I’d just love to see him swing round Tattenham Corner 10 lengths in front and everything else trying desperately to close him down. Does anyone remember 2000 Guineas winner Mister Baileys trying do that  in the 1994 Derby?

http://youtu.be/avu1F5y0QM4

What a sight it would be to see Frankel doing the same and if he did hold on up the straight he’d be rightly regarded as one of the greats. If World Domination doesn’t run too well in the Dante there must be a chance that Frankel could still make the Derby line-up.

———-

The last 2 weekends haven’t been too good for me on the punting front and my luck was summed up at the Newmarket meeting. On Saturday it started badly and got worse. I really fancied Viva Vettori and backed it each way at fancy prices but forgot to take into account the trainers form which is currently even worse than mine (see below).

Then I couldn’t split Dandino and Laaheb but ended up backing the latter who ran terribly. My small saver on Native Ruler got beat on the line. In the Guineas I went against Frankel, Doh!

The only one of Gary’s tips I didn’t do was Oldjoesaid because I fancied Select Committee. Result? Oldjoesaid beat Select Committee (no I didn’t do the forecast!).

Onto Sunday where the first two horses I discounted were I’m A Dreamer (10/1 winner) and Blue Bunting (16/1 winner). If I thought it couldn’t get any worse I was wrong as I then backed Hamoody each way the first 5 in the big sprint at Newmarket. Where did he finish? 6th of course beaten a neck, shorthead, head and a nose out of 2nd place. To top it all off I had backed Primevere at 7/2 in the Pretty Polly only to see her get stuffed as the 15/8 favourite.

Roll on the National Season…….

——-

Horses to look out for

I may have done my money at Sandown and the Guineas meeting but I did note quite a few horses that I’ll be keeping a close eye on throughout the Season. With 24 runners the big handicap sprint on Sunday was always going to be competitive and I reckon the form of that race is well worth following, especially the winner.

These are the horses that went into my notebook over the last two weekends (Frankel was already in my notebook!)…..

1) Gunner Lindley - 7f / 1 mile handicap when the going is Good- Soft or worse

He’s ran twice so far this season and his run at Sandown the previous weekend was poor but he really needs Soft ground. His form figures on Good/Soft or worse reads 12421 and when he gets his conditions he could nab a big prize. By the time he gets it his rating will have dropped a few lbs and his form figures won’t look so good so he may be a big price winner.

2) Novellen Lad - Sprint handicap when his rating drops to 84-85

He could only manage 17th of the 24 runners in Sunday’s sprint but it was his first run of the season and he was doing some nice work late on in the race. He races off 87 at the moment although his rating did reach as high as 93 last Summer but he’s never won off a rating of more than 84 before. If the handicap drops him a couple of pounds I’ll be backing him in any sprint he contests.

3) Hamoody - Sprint handicap at Goodwood

As I mentioned above he ran a blinding race on Sunday and just missed out on making the frame. He’s had a lot of success at Goodwood during his career, including winning a Group 2 as a 2yo at the Glorious meeting, and seems to enjoy racing the best during the Summer months. In fact his record at the Sussex course is 1210 and in July and August is 115210. I think connections may be eyeing another win at the Glorious Goodwood meeting with this one.

4) Johannes - next time out

He looks nicely weighted at the moment off 95 having been as high as 101 last Summer. On Sunday he couldn’t make his run when he wanted to as there was a wall of horses in front of him but once he saw daylight he ran on very well to finish 8th. I reckon we’ll be seeing him at York next week at the Dante meeting and I’ll be backing him there or wherever else he turns up.

5) I’m A Dreamer, Pastoral Player, Green Destiny

All three were winners and all three looked worth following this season. I’m A Dreamer was very impressive in the Dahlia Stakes and the Windsor Castle stakes at Royal Ascot looks a likely target for her next run. Pastoral Player travelled very strongly throughout the race and beat a very competitive field with something to spare. He should be up to winning at least in Listed class. Green Desert won the opening handicap in the style of an improving handicapper. It does depend on how much the handicapper raises him for this win but I’m sure his connections will be looking to take in one of the Royal Ascot handicaps in June before stepping him up in class.

6) Lui Rei - Wokingham (Royal Ascot)

This horse has been clocking up the airmiles having run in Italy, France, Dubai, Ireland and the UK in the last 3 years. He’s mainly been contesting Listed races of late and although he always  runs well he does seem to find 1 or 2 too good for him in those types of race. He had his first run in handicap company in this country on Sunday when he raced in rear for most of the race before making his move coming down to the furlong pole. He was staying on nicely for Frankie when he was blocked off and couldn’t get through and had to settle for a 5 1/2 length 11th placed finish. This was a very encouraging run considering he is rated 100 and I reckon connections will be sticking to these top grade handicaps with the Wokingham at Royal Ascot top of the list.

and some to avoid

Beware the David Elsworth runner as his stable look to be out of form at present. The 7 horses he’s sent out so far this Season have finished 10th of 13, last of 7, 5th of 7, 9th of 13, 9th of 11, 13th of 19 (Viva Vettori) and 2nd of 7 yesterday although it was well beaten by 4 lengths.

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The Placepot

I do love the Placepot bet although my recent attempts have been a little disappointing!

However if you ever needed proof that it is a bet worth doing then just take a look at last weeks dividend at Exeter (Tuesday). It paid £5357.10

Not bad at all but what is amazing is that only 21 horses ran at the entire meeting and you could have permed every runner in every race for 1200 bets and guaranteed yourself 4 winning tickets, no matter what horse won any of the races.

5×5x2×4x3×2 was the perm and for 10p’s you would have won over £2000!

Obviously it’s easy to point it out now but it does go to show what a great bet it can be.

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Finally, I had an email request from a reader asking if I could give any pointers to what to look out for when watching the horses in the parade ring at a race meeting. Unfortunately, I’m no expert in this field but I’ve ordered a couple of books on the subject and after I’ve read through them I’ll pass on anything I learn in a series of posts (hopefully next week).

Good luck,
Gavin.