I’ve just got back from a relaxing break with the family having stayed in a beautiful cottage just outside of St Ives.

As is usual for me, no matter how far I travel from home, I managed to bump into someone I know. On this occasion it was one of Dylan’s classmates and her parents in Newquay High Street. What are the odds on that? Probably about the same as the events that occured at Lands End on Monday. We all had our picture done at the signpost, as you do, and I filled in the details on the order form for them to send the photo on to us. Nothing strange in that except when I got home today I received an email from Darren Power, who you may know from his Betting School website, to say that he had his photo done at the Lands End Signpost on Monday and noticed my name just above his on the order form. As there were only 8 spaces on each form we must have missed each other by less than half an hour. It’s a small world.

I wasn’t going to re-tell this following tale but my missus has made me do it. The shame and the embarrassment of it all…..

It happened on the first day of the holiday when I managed to reverse my car into a kennel on Helston High Street. For those of you not familiar with the Cornish town of Helston I hasten to add that I’m not talking about a wooden shed for a dog but a drainage ditch that runs alongside the road (not that it makes much difference to my driving stupidity, I just  want to clarify that no animal was hurt by my actions). This one was about a foot deep and my wheel was dangling in mid air with the axle resting on the kerb. I had no traction and was completely stuck. Luckily the RAC man on the other end of the phone didn’t laugh out loud when I told him my tale of woe although I’m sure he had a good chuckle to himself later on. What wasn’t funny was the 2 hour wait before he could dispatch a van to my aid.

So I swallowed my pride and went in search of some local help. I needn’t have worried as apparently it’s an everyday occurence in the Summer season and the locals are used to it happening. So with a large crowd of locals and tourists looking on we attempted to get the wheel of my BMW out of the kennel and back onto the road using a jack, bricks, wood and Cornish brute strength. No problem and all it cost me was a round of drinks in the pub. I couldn’t have asked for a better place to stick my car down a drain. The locals were really friendly, extremely helpful and only took the proverbial for a short period of time (well, as long as it took to get the car out!).

The weather was great, the pasties were very tasty and punting wise it was pretty good also as I only had three bets the entire holiday- Emmas Gift and Askar Tau at Ascot on Wednesday and Messi to score the first goal in the footie in the evening.

All in all a brilliant week…..

——–

Thanks to Gary for his tips last week which just about broke even thanks to A New Story nabbing 5th place in the Irish National. If your bookie only paid the first 4 then it really is time to start looking around for the value. It seems that paying 5th place in these big handicaps is the big thing at the moment and it’s one of the best concessions to happen for us each way backers in years. Paddy Power and Boylesports are leading the way and offer this concession at least once a week. With the big 6f Sprint handicap at Newmarket on Sunday featuring 27 runners we are going to need all the help we can get.

I’ve asked Gary to take a look at the racing again this weekend to see if he can unearth another big priced winner/place for us….

Hi,

All of you that were here this time last year will know that I love my sprint handicaps but I will be the first to admit that it all went a little wrong last year. I am hoping that the early indications from this season will see a reversal of that form as a couple of last seasons sprinters have already proved profitable, most notably  Spanish Bounty who won at Windsor first time out and Dickie Le Davour who has won his last 4 races, 2 on the AW and 2 on turf, all at very rewarding odds. So here goes…..

3.35 Thirsk : The Thirsk Hunt Cup. BALCARCE NOV finished 3rd in this race last year off a rating of 100 and looks to have an excellent chance of going 2 places better this time around off a 2lb lower mark. He ran 3rd to St Moritz on his debut and that will have put him spot on for this. He meets last years winner on 13lb better terms for a 1 length beating.

5.45 Thirsk : 5 furlong handicap. OLDJOESAID featured a number of times last year in my columns without success. This season he seems to have returned in better form, his 3rd first time out was encouraging and he followed that with a fast finishing 2nd last Sunday at Musselburgh. He is thrown in on his old  form and will hopefully find the winners enclosure here.

2.00 Newmarket : TARTAN GIGHA is a winner over this course and distance as he won this race last year off a mark of 95. Today he runs off just 1lb higher at 96.  He was disappointing in the Lincoln when only 18th  of the 21 runners and again at Epsom last week when beaten 15lengths by Spanish Duke but I am more than hopeful he can return to the form that he showed at this time last season.

3.45 Newmarket : PROHIBIT is a tentative choice in a very open looking Palace House Stakes. He has been running at Meydan this season and comes here fresh from a 5 week break. He has Frankie Dettori on board and as many of these are rated below him and/or haven’t run yet this season he looks to have a very reasonable chance.

SUNDAY 3.50 Newmarket : I’m going to take a chance on the fitness of  TIDDLIWINKS who ran some cracking races last season without getting his head in front. Interestingly he has won 5 of his 9 races on the AW but on turf has not made the first 3 on any of his 9 runs. He does however have a 4/20, 4/27 and 4/22 to his name in the major sprint handicaps and I’m sure it’s only a matter of time before he does record his first turf success. If he’s fit enough first time out it could be here at Newmarket on Sunday.

That’s what I will be backing this weekend good luck if your following me or doing your own thing.

Thanks Gary.

I’ll be doing my Placepot at Newmarket today using the following perm…..

5-6-7-16
3-6
4-11
1-5-8
5-10-12
1-5

= 288 bets

————-

2YO FLAT TrainerTrackStats

With the National Hunt season ending last Saturday I’ve turned by attention to the Flat. I’ve had a number of requests for a TTS Flat version but I haven’t done one for a few years now because basically it’s very hard to make a profit with all the different types of races and the sheer number of trainers involved.

BUT….last year I trialled a TTS Guide that specialised in 2YO races and it worked very well (including giving a 33/1 winner on the very last day of the season). So I’ve stuck with the same formula and produced a 2yo TrainerTrackStats guide that has 39 trainer and track combinations.

It’s got some fantastic trainer stats in it but the undoubted star of the manual is Mark Johnston and his runners at a certain Midlands track. Here he has a 45% strike rate, a level stakes profit of over £50, has had at least 2 winners a year since 2006 and shown a profit in every one of those Seasons. He is the first ever trainer to receive 5 stars+ in our TTS Guides. I can’t wait to get stuck into his runners.

It is on sale now for just £27 and comes with 2 bonus Guides….

1) A Top Ten 2yo stats manual. There won’t be many runners using this guide but they have been selected because of their amazing strike rates. For example: the certain type of Andrew Balding 2yo that he’s sent to a Southern track that has seen his 9 runners finish 111112211 for a level stakes profit of +£25.82 (since 2006)

2) Handicap Trainers: Everyone loves to bet in handicaps but it’s notoriously difficult to find the winners and make a profit. To help things out I’ve gone through the records of 6 top trainers in the UK (Stoute, Fahey, Hills, Hannon, Channon and Gosden) to find out which track and what type of handicap race they do best in. Sir Michael Stoute has been consistently winning handicaps with a very specific type of runner that has given him at least 3 winners every year since 2004 and shown a LSP for every year bar 2008. An overall total of 32 winners from 79 runners (40.5% strike rate) and a LSP of £75.05.

So it’s £27 for all 3 Guides and full access to the TTS Members Area

Or you can have all 3 guides and get full use of the easy to use Automated Bot Software, that places all your bets for you, for just £77! This has to be the bargain of the Summer.

Sign up is here…. http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

In 2009 we had Niche Market (33/1 winner).
In 2010 we had Bluesea Cracker (25/1 winner).
In 2011 we have ??????

Here is the link for the Irish Grand National Trends Guide ……..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/IRISHNATIONAL2011.pdf

It’s 100% FREE. There are absolutely no details required. One click = direct access.

Good luck,
Gavin.

 As Gavin is away on an Easter break he asked if I would take a look at this weekends big races and as the challenge was the 18 runner Bet365 chase and the 25 runner Irish Grand National, I thought why not, particularly as the former was a very lucky race for me last year.

Before I start to take a look at main events there is one other race I would like to mention. The race in question is the 2.05 Sandown 2m 3f handicap hurdle. This season I have been following Danatri who has been running well over a variety of distances and was too have been on my 3 for Aintree but didn’t make the race. He ran at Cheltenham last week over 3miles which stretches his stamina just a little too much and this 2m 3f will be just up his street. I hope Paul Maloney adopts the same tactics that saw him run 3rd on this course earlier in the season, he runs his best races when allowed to dominate the race with a very healthy 20 length lead.

Then we move on to the main event, the 3.10 it will always be the Whitbread Gold Cup to me but as Bet365 are now supporting the race I guess we should give it its proper title. The Bet365 Gold Cup is run over 3m 5f 110yds and has18 runners with last years winner now having to shoulder top weight. That said his campaign this year has been geared around a repeat win with a run in a hurdle race then 9 days ago a spin on the flat. With the ace conditional A. Heskins claiming 5lb off his back it’s all set for back to back wins. As Gavin said in his piece I have some fancy doubles running onto him at 33s  and I’m very hopeful of a big run. I do also like the chances of Richard Sundance who was running well at Cheltenham behind Junior until falling 4 from home. He could step up on that run and at around 40/1 looks great ew value especially if your bookie is paying the first 5 places.

Then we move over to Ireland on Easter Monday for the Irish Grand National a race that Gavin’s trends has made it’s own over the last 2 years with Niche Market and Bluesea Cracker. He again has a 33/1 shot to go to war with  this year (see comments at the end of the post) and I personally do like its chance but I’m sticking with my favourite horse who has won me plenty of money over the years in this race. In fact he has  finished 3rd , UR, 4th , 3rd and 4th  in the last 5 runnings. Yes he is past his prime at 13 but he showed at Cheltenham in the Cross Country race that he retains plenty of ability and enthusiasm and he also has some speed which he showed with his 3rd in a 2m 4 hurdle race. He is currently top priced at 40/1 which again looks a cracking each way price and again especially if your bookie is paying first   5.

So to recap….

 2.05 Sandown    Sat    DANATRI (10/1 )
 3.10 Sandown    Sat    CHURCH ISLAND (20/1) & RICHARDS SUNDANCE (40/1)
 4.55 Fairyhouse Mon  A NEW STORY (40/1) & GAVINS TRENDS HORSE (33/1)

 I will be having EW singles plus 8 ew doubles and 4 ew trebles.

Good Luck if your following and leave a comment with your suggestions if you disagree.
Have a great Easter and Gavin will be back early next week.

Irish National

And who can forget the incredible FREE trends guide I gave away on the Irish National last year? Certainly not me! I was in Vegas fast asleep when my phone went absolutely crazy with texts and calls from excited readers. The missus wasn’t too happy about being woken up but I didn’t care because Bluesea Cracker had just won at 25/1. This was even more remarkable because we’d also had the Irish National winner the year before at 33/1.

Can we make it 3 out of 3? Probably not but if you want to find out what we’ll be backing this year then you can have the 2011 Irish National Trends Guide FREE on Monday morning. (Festival Trends subscribers will be able to download it a lot earlier than this). This must be the most hotly anticipated Trends Guide all year. AND IT’S 100% FREE.

STOP PRESS: I’ve gone through the trends on the 5 day decs and there are a few horses that satisfy the trends but only 1 of them looks likely to make the cut. The good news is he’s 33/1!!

Festival Trends

Talking of Festival Trends, we also had a great April/May last year too. On the corresponding Saturday Sandown card last year we gave both Group winners and then carried our form on to the Guineas meeting where we had Jukebox Jury, Strawberrydaquiri and Equiano win for us before hitting Chester. There we had Chester Cup winner Mamlook at 7/1 and 11/1 Huxley Stakes scorer Debussy. If you want a trial subscription for Festival Trends you can take out membership until the end of May for just £19.95 and get the following races / meetings included….

Sandown Bet365, Irish National, Newmarket Guineas, Chester May meeting, Punchestown Festival, Lingfield Derby Trial, York Dante, Lockinge, French Guineas, Temple Stakes, Irish Guineas, Brigadier Gerard, Coral Sprint and the Zetland Gold Cup….busy, busy, busy!

Sign-up here http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

2YO FLAT TrainerTrackStats

With it being the end of the National Hunt season on Saturday I’ve turned by attention to the Flat. I’ve had a number of requests for a TTS Flat version but I haven’t done one for a few years now because basically it’s very hard to make a profit with all the different types of races and the sheer number of trainers involved.

BUT….last year I trialled a TTS Guide that specialised in 2YO races and it worked very well (including giving a 33/1 winner on the very last day of the season). So I’ve stuck with the same formula and produced a 2yo TrainerTrackStats guide that has 39 trainer and track combinations.

It’s got some fantastic trainer stats in it but the undoubted star of the manual is Mark Johnston and his runners at a certain Midlands track. Here he has a 45% strike rate, a level stakes profit of over £50, has had at least 2 winners a year since 2006 and shown a profit in every one of those Seasons. He is the first ever trainer to receive 5 stars+ in our TTS Guides. I can’t wait to get stuck into his runners.

It is on sale now for just £27 and comes with 2 bonus Guides….

1) A Top Ten 2yo stats manual. There won’t be many runners using this guide but they have been selected because of their amazing strike rates. For example: the certain type of Andrew Balding 2yo that he’s sent to a Southern track that has seen his 9 runners finish 111112211 for a level stakes profit of +£25.82 (since 2006)

2) Handicap Trainers: Everyone loves to bet in handicaps but it’s notoriously difficult to find the winners and make a profit. To help things out I’ve gone through the records of 6 top trainers in the UK (Stoute, Fahey, Hills, Hannon, Channon and Gosden) to find out which track and what type of handicap race they do best in. Sir Michael Stoute has been consistently winning handicaps with a very specific type of runner that has given him at least 3 winners every year since 2004 and shown a LSP for every year bar 2008. An overall total of 32 winners from 79 runners (40.5% strike rate) and a LSP of £75.05.

So it’s £27 for all 3 Guides and full access to the TTS Members Area

Or you can have all 3 guides and get full use of the easy to use Automated Bot Software, that places all your bets for you, for just £77! This has to be the bargain of the Summer.

Sign up is here…. http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

Purchase now to get the last day of the NH TTS season included free.

PLEASE NOTE: The 2yo Flat TTS Guide runs from the 1st May - 31st October 2011

And in case you’re wondering - the NH TTS for this season has had 87 winners from 380 runners (23% strike rate) and is currently showing over +£600 profit for £20 bets at Betfair SP.

Good luck,
Gary & Gavin.

We are now entering what was an extremely profitable period for Blog followers last year……

BET365 Chase

The NH season is limping to it’s finale on Saturday with what looks set to be the worst renewal of the old Whitbread Gold Cup (now the Bet365 Chase) for many a year. Siegemaster has top weight which tells you everything you need to know. 12 months ago you may recall that Gary tipped the winner Church Island at 20/1 and gave the 12/1 third Lacdoudal as well for good measure. So you’ll probably be itching to find out what he’ll be backing this year.

Well having applied the thumbscrews to him last night it seems he’s very keen on a repeat win for CHURCH ISLAND and has some fancy doubles riding on it from last weeks Scottish National.  He’s backed it at 33s but Victor Chandler are now currently best priced at 20/1.

Irish National

And who can forget the incredible FREE trends guide I gave away on the Irish National last year? Certainly not me! I was in Vegas fast asleep when my phone went absolutely crazy with texts and calls from excited readers. The missus wasn’t too happy about being woken up but I didn’t care because Bluesea Cracker had just won at 25/1. This was even more remarkable because we’d also had the Irish National winner the year before at 33/1.

Can we make it 3 out of 3? Probably not but if you want to find out what we’ll be backing this year then you can have the 2011 Irish National Trends Guide FREE on Monday morning. (Festival Trends subscribers will be able to download it a lot earlier than this). This must be the most hotly anticipated Trends Guide all year. AND IT’S 100% FREE.

STOP PRESS: I’ve gone through the trends on the 5 day decs and there are a few horses that satisfy the trends but only 1 of them looks likely to make the cut. The good news is he’s 33/1!!

Festival Trends

Talking of Festival Trends, we also had a great April/May last year too. On the corresponding Saturday Sandown card last year we gave both Group winners and then carried our form on to the Guineas meeting where we had Jukebox Jury, Strawberrydaquiri and Equiano win for us before hitting Chester. There we had Chester Cup winner Mamlook at 7/1 and 11/1 Huxley Stakes scorer Debussy. If you want a trial subscription for Festival Trends you can take out membership until the end of May for just £19.95 and get the following races / meetings included….

Sandown Bet365, Irish National, Newmarket Guineas, Chester May meeting, Punchestown Festival, Lingfield Derby Trial, York Dante, Lockinge, French Guineas, Temple Stakes, Irish Guineas, Brigadier Gerard, Coral Sprint and the Zetland Gold Cup….busy, busy, busy!

Sign-up here http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

2YO FLAT TrainerTrackStats

With it being the end of the National Hunt season on Saturday I’ve turned by attention to the Flat. I’ve had a number of requests for a TTS Flat version but I haven’t done one for a few years now because basically it’s very hard to make a profit with all the different types of races and the sheer number of trainers involved.

BUT….last year I trialled a TTS Guide that specialised in 2YO races and it worked very well (including giving a 33/1 winner on the very last day of the season). So I’ve stuck with the same formula and produced a 2yo TrainerTrackStats guide that has 39 trainer and track combinations.

It’s got some fantastic trainer stats in it but the undoubted star of the manual is Mark Johnston and his runners at a certain Midlands track. Here he has a 45% strike rate, a level stakes profit of over £50, has had at least 2 winners a year since 2006 and shown a profit in every one of those Seasons. He is the first ever trainer to receive 5 stars+ in our TTS Guides. I can’t wait to get stuck into his runners.

It is on sale now for just £27 and comes with 2 bonus Guides….

1) A Top Ten 2yo stats manual. There won’t be many runners using this guide but they have been selected because of their amazing strike rates. For example: the certain type of Andrew Balding 2yo that he’s sent to a Southern track that has seen his 9 runners finish 111112211 for a level stakes profit of +£25.82 (since 2006)

2) Handicap Trainers: Everyone loves to bet in handicaps but it’s notoriously difficult to find the winners and make a profit. To help things out I’ve gone through the records of 6 top trainers in the UK (Stoute, Fahey, Hills, Hannon, Channon and Gosden) to find out which track and what type of handicap race they do best in. Sir Michael Stoute has been consistently winning handicaps with a very specific type of runner that has given him at least 3 winners every year since 2004 and shown a LSP for every year bar 2008. An overall total of 32 winners from 79 runners (40.5% strike rate) and a LSP of £75.05.

So it’s £27 for all 3 Guides and full access to the TTS Members Area

Or you can have all 3 guides and get full use of the easy to use Automated Bot Software, that places all your bets for you, for just £77! This has to be the bargain of the Summer.

Sign up is here…. http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

Purchase now to get the last day of the NH TTS season included free.

PLEASE NOTE: The 2yo Flat TTS Guide runs from the 1st May - 31st October 2011

And in case you’re wondering - the NH TTS for this season has had 87 winners from 380 runners (23% strike rate) and is currently showing over +£600 profit for £20 bets at Betfair SP.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Loads to get through today so let’s get straight to it…..

NEWBURY PLACEPOT

1.35

A tough race to get us underway but I like the look of the Luca Cumani/Kieren Fallon runner BOURNE who only ran twice as a 4yo but won two low grade handicaps at the beginning and end of last Season. On his last run he won an 18 runner handicap by 1/2 length from Rock The Stars yet amazingly meets that one on 10lb better terms today. I’ll also be adding Henry Cecil’s All Action and Ed Dunlop’s Satwa Moon who had some good form last year before disappointing on his last start.

2.05

Not a great renewal this year with the handicapper Verdant looking likely to go off favourite. There are doubts about a couple of these participating so we have to be careful here as we could end up with non runners going on to the favourite. Allied Powers usually needs his first run of the season and was well beaten in this race last year so I’ll be looking elsewhere today. INDIAN DAYS finished last season running in Group 1 company which wasn’t bad as he was still running in handicaps at the time of Glorious Goodwood. He won’t find this company quite as tough although he does have a 4lb Group 2 penalty. The other one I was going to put in the placepot was Poet but he may not run so I think it would be more sensible to put Clowance in instead.

2.40

14 fillies line up with most making their seasonal debut making for a tough race to solve. The undoubted form horses in the race are Rockfel winner CAPE DOLLAR and the ex-French trained Pontenuovo who is now with Roger Charlton. She ran Dream Ahead to 1 3/4 length in a Group 1 last August and a reproduction of that form would see her win this with her head in her chest. Both trainers can get one ready to win first time out and we should at least get 1 in the frame.

3.10

Today’s racing seems to revolve around Frankel but at 1/3 not even a diehard Henry Cecil fan like myself would be tempted at that price. However I don’t see much point in looking any further than him and Strong Suit for the Placepot. The best play here is maybe to back Strong Suit for the Guineas at 20/1 as he looks the most likely runner in todays field to give the favourite something to think about. Richard Hannon hasn’t given up on him yet and if soft ground was the problem at the end of his season then he still has plenty of time to become the horse he looked like being at Royal Ascot. If we wins or gets anywhere near Frankel he certainly won’t be 20/1 come this evening.

3.45

The last 9 winners of this race have all been 4 or 5yo’s that were drawn in double figured stalls. That halves the field down in one go and should help you find the winner. Suited and Booted, Brick Red, Saint Pierre and GREYFRIARSCHORISTA will do for me with the last named looking a decent each way bet at 25/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 odds first 5). He’s plumetted in the weights to a mark of 90 which looks very attractive given that he ran 3rd to Thursday Newmarket Group winner Ransom Note in the Britannia off 98 at Royal Ascot last year. Back to a mile, back on a straight course and back on turf I think he can run a big race at a big price.

4.15

Roger Varian’s SUHAILI is the clear form choice of those that have run already with Henry Cecil’s World Domination looking the best of those that have yet to race. I’ll probably throw in Cecil’s other runner, Solar Sky, as well.

Giving us a perm of……

2-3-6
1-4
3-10
2-5
6-9-15-17
10-12-14

= 288 bets

AYR PLACEPOT

1.50

Conditionals riding a load of dodgepots with just hands and heels? Disaster looms! King of the dodgepots FRANKLINO looks well treated with his 4yo allowance and hopefully will make the frame. If Sure Josie Sure lines up after having run yesterday she should be thereabouts but it may be safer to go with Nicky Henderson’s Semi Colon who ran a fine 5th in a Listed mares only handicap last time out.

2.20

Urgh, this race is ugly. It’s a field full of runners who were sent off at big prices in some of the big Novice Chase races at the recent festivals and ran as their price suggested they would. If the race had been run before Cheltenham and Aintree the two I would have chosen then would have been GEORGIO QUERCUS and Stagecoach Pearl.

2.50

Every winner since 1997, bar 2009, had run within the last 2 months
Every winner since 1997 had won a race over 2 miles
All of the last 12 winners carried 10-13 or less
All of the last 10 winners were rated 130-146
13 of the last 14 winners had raced 16 times or less over hurdles
11 of the last 13 winners had finished in the top 2 of a class 3 or better handicap
12 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 6 last time out (9/13 top 3)

The two that look to have the best chance on the trends are Via Gallilei and Cockney Trucker. Away from the trends I think HUNTERVIEW looks the most likely winner. He won the 4yo novice hurdle at this meeting last year by 15 lengths and was far from disgraced at Cheltenham in the County Hurdle on his most recent run. I’d imagine this race was the plan for some time and he should run well.

3.25

I really fancied Fair Along for this race but he’s been taken out and ruined another ante-post gamble of mine. I’m left cheering Always Right, Poker De Sivola, Regal Heights and last years winner Merigo.

4.00

Last weeks Aintree winner RUSSIAN WAR will take all the beating here but should he ‘bounce’ then I’ll also include Mollys Boy and Kilbrannish Hill.

4.30

Crikey it’s not getting any easier with all these handicaps to sort out. Quito De Tresor ran a really good race to finish 5th behind Oiseau De Nuit in the Grand Annual and if he runs anywhere near that he should be in the shake-up. I’ll also put in Ferdy Murphy’s I’M DELILAH who managed to get a bit closer to Oiseau De Nuit at Aintree when they finished 2nd and 3rd behind Silk Drum.

Giving us a perm of……

(1)-7-10
1-3
6-7-8
10-12-17-18
1-6-10
4-6

= 288 bets (or 432 if you include Sure Josie Sure in the first race)

Best of luck if you’re joining in with me,
Gavin.

I had a lot of emails from readers last week asking about the Placepot bet and how it all works. I did do quite a few posts on the bet a couple of years ago when I was on the old Blog so some long time sufferers will probably have read this before.

But if you haven’t and would like to know all there is to know about the bet here’s what I wrote back then…..

THE PLACEPOT

In the first of this weeks look at the Placepot I’m going to start with the basics. This is for all those readers who are unfamiliar with the bet or with pool betting in general.

Basically the objective of the Placepot is to try and get a horse placed in the first 6 races of any horse-race meeting. (The Placepot always runs for the first 6 races regardless of how many races are on the card.)

The places you require for the Placepot are exactly the same as they are for each way betting i.e.
In races of 1-4 runners you need to find the winner
Races of 5-7 runners you need to place in the first 2
8 runners+ means a first 3 placing is required unless it’s
a handicap of 16+ runners when you can place in the top 4.

So it’s simply a case of selecting one horse in each of the first 6 races and hoping they get in the frame. If all 6 do make the frame you win.

How much?

Hopefully, a lot! but this will depend on a couple of factors.

Firstly, on how much you stake. You can place anything from 10p to as much as you like on the Placepot but the dividend is always declared to £1.
So if the dividend is £150 you will win £150 for every £1 staked (£15 for 10p, £1500 for £10 etc).

Secondly and the most important factor, on how many other people win.
As the Placepot is a pool bet, the dividend is affected by how many winning tickets there are. It works like this; All the money wagered on the Placepot for each meeting is placed in a pool. The Tote take out their commission and what’s left is divided amongst all the winning tickets to produce the dividend. Therefore the fewer winners there are the higher the dividend (and vice-versa).

A perm increases your chances of winning the Placepot but does however cost more to put on. Most of the Placepot bets I do are perms and they simply work like this;

You select a number of horses in each race that you fancy and fill in the Placepot card with each horse. When you have done all 6 races you simply multiply the number of horses in each race together.
Say you did 2 horses in each race then this will cost 2×2x2×2x2×2 = 64 bets. Decide on your stake and work out the cost of your bet by multiplying by the number of bets. In this example for £1 it would be £64 (64 bets x £1) or for 10p it would be £6.40.

For 3 horses in each race it would be 3×3x3×3x3×3 = 729 bets or £72.90 for 10p

You don’t have to do the same number of selections in each race and it’s sometimes a good thing to have a banker in at least one of the races to reduce the cost of the perm.

Example: 3×3x1×2x2×2 = 72 bets

To work out any winnings you multiply the number of correct selections in each race to find out the number of winning lines you have and times this by your stake.

So, if you did a £1 perm bet with 3×2x2×2x1×4 selections this would cost you £96. You get 2 in the frame in the first race, one in the second and third, both horses in the fourth, your banker wins the fifth and 2 of your last 4 are placed you would have 8 lines up (2×1x1×2x1×2).

The dividend pays £425 so you would win £3400 (8 lines at £1 x the £425 dividend).

In any race there is also the option of putting in the un-named favourite. If you select a non-runner your selection will also now become the favourite. In the case of joint or multiple favourites the horse that is the lowest racecard number is the one that counts.

Finally, the betting slip. It’s very easy to use and looks similar to a Lottery ticket (but with more numbers on). The 6 races go from left to right and each race has a column of horse numbers plus the favourite. Each number has a box next to it and to place your bet you simply put a line through the box that corresponds to the racecard number of your fancy.

There’s another box for the stake (10p to £100) which again just needs a line through the relevant amount and there’s a line at the bottom to write the meeting you require. Don’t forget this!

PLACEPOT

In the second look at the Placepot I’ll be having a look at some tips and strategies that may help in getting the bet up.

PERM
The first bit of advice I’d give to anyone doing the Placepot is to perm a few selections in each race rather than doing a straight line of only one horse per race. The best way to make money doing the Placepot is to stake small amounts on perms and hope for that freak or large dividend.

SMALL FIELDS (2-7 runners)
When doing a Placepot these are the races that can make big dividends and big payouts. The average punter sees short priced favourites as having more chance of being placed in these types of races as there are less runners. Going against the norm is a good way of betting the Placepot and it’s always worth perming extra horses in small fields in the hope that these type of horses are unplaced. In races of 2-4 runners I would even suggest putting all of the runners in a perm.

NON-RUNNERS ON FAVOURITE
Non runners are the Placepot punters worst enemy as your selection now becomes the Favourite and favourites are the horses you want out of the frame. So before placing your Placepot check your horses are running and try to put your bet on as close to the off as possible. It’s always an idea to have reserves in mind just in case your selections are absent.

The favourite / non-runner rule can work in your favour though as when really fancied horses don’t run and you get the favourite unplaced this really boosts the payout. This famously happened at Newcastle in 2002 when no less than 37 horses were withdrawn. Mayhem ensued as favourites got beaten left, right and centre (including one at 2/7 in a two horse race) and contributed to a freak dividend of £22,121.50

1ST 3 IN RACING POST BETTING
These horses are also the ones you need out of the frame as most people don’t have time to really study 6 races and will just go by the betting in the paper.

PLACED FORM
Horses with a string of 2’s and 3’s in it’s form are obviously going to appeal to your average or lazy Placepot punter so it’s always worth studying the form in depth to try and find the less fancied horse or those that don’t have lots of recent placed form to it’s name. It’s worth stressing that the more you try to go against the norm, the more likely you are to get that freak dividend payout.

BANKERS
When doing a perm it’s always useful to have a banker in at least of the legs as this can reduce the amount you’re laying out.

BIG MEETINGS
These are always good places to bet the Placepot at as the starting pool is usually very large. At the Cheltenham Festival £300,000+ pools are the norm which all helps towards that big dividend.

DO’s AND DON’Ts….

DO….
A perm
Try to oppose vulnerable favourites
Try to oppose horses with a lot of recent placed form
Use bankers if you really fancy a runner
Be aware of any Non-runners

DON’T….
Follow the crowd.
Be lazy. Don’t just pick the horse with placed form or use the fancied horses.
Forget to name the meeting!!

I hope this helps.

If you have any questions please leave a comment or send me an email.

I’ll be back tomorrow to put all this into practice and have a crack at the Placepot at Newbury and Ayr.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Fresh from my great escape at the Cheltenham Festival I had a bulging bankroll and was full of confidence for Aintree. It didn’t take long for that to take a dive though as I backed second placed finishers Grand Crus, Kumbeshwar, Caroles Legacy, Oiseau De Nuit and Medermit on the first day of the meeting along with faller Turko, the disappointing Rio Gael and the never sighted Orsippus. I managed some damage limitation with the Placepot and a small each way bet on both Houblon Des Obeaux and Offshore Account but it certainly wasn’t the start I was looking for.

Friday was a completely different story however and was also very close to being my best days punting for a very long time. I backed 4 of the 7 winners (Topolski, Quito De La Roque, Always Waining and Battle Group) and managed two multiple bets with 3 winners in each. How I didn’t get 4 winners in one bet is still a mystery to me. I had a lumpy bet on Always Waining in the Topham and was quite happy with a place jumping the last especially with Mon Parrain looking to be going so well but things didn’t quite work out as planned for the favourite and by the time they had reached the elbow I was jumping up and down like a lunatic.  That gave me 3 winners in a Lucky 15 with just the awful Kalahari King letting the side down and was also the second leg of a Lucky 31 along with Topolski. Sparky May was the third leg in that bet which looked to be going very well entering the straight but simply ran out of steam on the long home straight. Just over half an hour later though as Battle Group was winning the Handicap Hurdle I was getting ever closer to being taken away by the men in white coats. He was the penultimate horse in my Lucky 31 and meant I had a stack of money riding on Tante Sissi in the last. That one never looked like winning and meant I’d have to settle for a very good day instead of an incredible one. Getting the Placepot up again was the icing on the cake.

Saturday started off with me basking in the warm Spring sun standing in a field while watching a herd of kids charge around a football pitch. With some of Dylan’s team-mates still only 6 and their opponents fielding a team comprising of some very tall 8yo’s it was no surprise to see Inter Penarth take a 5-0 battering from a team who looked to be playing in the wrong age group. Fun’s what it’s all about at that age though and while Dylan certainly has plenty of that each Saturday morning there are a few parents on the touchline who might need reminding of that fact. There are a lot of people out there who think their son is going to be the next Wayne Rooney!

After dropping Dylan back home I went on my way to Bristol for a poker tournament via Betfreds of course. A few each way bets, a few Lucky 15s and a Placepot was the order of the day having already backed Big Fella Thanks, Killyglen and Golden Kite with Victor Chandler the night before (1/4 the odds the first 6 was a terrific concession). I was determined not to give my winnings back after such a great day on Friday so it was probably a good job I was otherwise engaged for the rest of the afternoon. I arrived at the Gala Casino in good time and resisted the urge to play Roulette or on the slots by reading my Racing Post with a sandwich and a can of coke. The tournament started and everything was going well. I had a TV directly in front of my table which had the racing on, I was getting good cards and my chipstack was growing by the hour.

I had a really good each way bet on Thousand Stars which ran a fine second, an each way bet on Categorical which was also a big priced runner up and had them both in a Lucky 15 with two horses running later. The tournament then went on a break so everyone could watch the big race and they served a lovely buffet for all the players. Things were going GREAT…..

And then something happened.

I don’t know what it was but kilter was definitely knocked off. My harmony was interupted. My Chi was now unbalanced and my Yin and my Yang were all messed up. Maybe it was the buffet, maybe it was the tuna sandwich I had for lunch or maybe my luck simply ran out. All I know is that as the leaders jumped the last fence of the National everything went pear shaped. Very pear shaped.

Big Fella Thanks got to the elbow and then just stopped. 3rd, 4th, 5th he went as horse after horse went sailing passed him. Good job I backed him for the first 6 with Victor Chandler I thought to myself as he laboured home a completely shattered 7th place finisher. If Graham Lee had got off and carried him he would have covered that final 150 yards in a faster time.

Down went my placepot, down went the 3rd leg of my ew Lucky 15 and down went my £100ew bet with Mr Chandler. Back to the Poker and down went my chipstack as my pair of Kings were defeated by a pair of 7’s that became 3 of a kind on the flop. 10 minutes later and I was down and out as some idiot made the worst call I’ve ever seen in a live poker tournament and then proceeded to get extremely lucky. With only 1 card in the whole pack to save him it was inevitable that the dealer would produce it on the river.

Back into the car for the drive home and plenty of time to cool down.

I called into Betfred’s to see that Eradicate had finished out of the frame again, collected my each way bets and went home to work out the profits for the week.

It was enough to buy myself a new(ish) BMW, take the family away for an Easter Break in a barn in Cornwall and keep my bankroll ‘rolling’ so all in all a job well done. I just hope my kilter is back in line ready for the weekend…….

————

It will come as no surprise to any regular reader of the blog that I’ll be backing Henry Cecil’s AIR TRAFFIC in the Wood Ditton (2.25 Newmarket). He was well touted by those in the know at Newmarket last season but he didn’t make it onto a racecourse as a 2yo. He’s entered in the Dante and must do well here to justify those lofty ambitions.

I’ll also be backing two horses today in an attempt to retrieve previous losses.

The first goes at Cheltenham in the Mares Handicap Hurdle at 3.20. I put up ALASI as an each way poke for the Mares race at the Festival and for a 33/1 chance she ran a great race, just missing out on a place when caught on the line. She came down the hill from the 3rd last going as well as anything else in the race including Quevega but didn’t have that ones class or speed to see the race through. Back in handicap company she looks fairly well treated and must go close again. 6/1 looks fair to me.

The other one I’m backing is the Barry Hills trained PRIME DEFENDER who was another to travel well in his previous start but not see out the whole of the race. He looked like a horse in need of the run and I’d expect him to get a lot closer to the first three home from that race who all oppose again. With the stable doing okay at the moment the 12/1 might be a decent each way bet.

————-

AW JOCKEYS AND TRAINERS GUIDE

I told you this was the best FREE guide I’ve ever given away!

The free AW jockeys guide continues to perform well and shows a 15% profit on the bank in a week! It’s had 13 losers and 5 winners (38% strike rate) at odds of 7/4, 11/4, 9/2, 5/1 and 14/1.

There is 1 selection today.

REMEMBER: This guide is 100% FREE and all the selections are being worked out daily for you (many thanks to Lee who has offered to provide this service). Just click on the link in the left hand menu entitled AW Jockeys 2011..

or click (and bookmark) http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/aw-jockeys-2011/

Every runner, every qualifier, every winner and every loser will be recorded throughout the Season.

Get it while it’s FREE because I may have to charge for the 2011/2012 Winter AW Version…..

————-

FESTIVAL TRENDS OFFER EXTENDED BY 48 HOURS……..

To celebrate our fantastic set of results at Aintree (Big Bucks 4/6, Topolski 11/2, Quito De La Roque 6/1, Always Waining 14/1, Battle Group 16/1, Finians Rainbow 10/11 and Prince De Beauchene 10/1) I’m going to offer all readers of the blog a chance to get the Festival Trends Guides for the rest of this month at an amazing 50% off.

That’s EVERY guide in April for just £12.50 including…..

THE NEWMARKET CRAVEN MEETING
- Last year we tipped Music Show at 6/1 and Elusive Pimpernel at 10/11 from the 4 races covered.

NEWBURY SPRING CUP MEETING
- We tipped 7/1 winner PUFF in our 2010 3 race guide

AYR SCOTTISH NATIONAL
- We ended up tipping two horses in the race last year. Result? They finished 1st and 2nd (Merigo and Gone To Lunch) for an 18/1 winner and £120 forecast!

SANDOWN Betfred CHASE / FLAT MEETING
- In 2010 we covered 4 races and tipped 2 winners, Paco Boy at 11/10 and Glass Harmonium at 5/1

IRISH NATIONAL
- In 2009 we tipped 33/1 winner Niche Market. In 2010 we tipped 25/1 winner Bluesea Cracker. Can we make it 3 out of 3?

NEWMARKET GUINEAS
- 7 race guide. Jukebox Jury 7/4, Equiano 5/1 and Strawberrydaiquiri 11/8 were the three winners tipped last year.

That’s 20 races covered for just £12.50! 

Last year we managed 10 winners from those 20 races including one at 18/1 and one at 25/1. After last weeks winners at Aintree we’re well on our way to matching last years incredible profit figures for April. Join now and get the rest of the month for just £12.50…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Simply enter the COUPON CODE 4C6C6 to get 50% off the price of any subscription. Offer ends midnight Tuesday Thursday. Don’t forget it’s the Scottish National and Spring Cup this weekend.

Good luck,
Gavin.

What a day. I even managed to put my brother in the shade!

Always Waining wins again at 14/1. I truly hope you re-invested the Grand National refunds on him.

The trends guide had Topolski 11/2, Quito De La Roque 6/1, Always Waining 14/1 and Battle Group 16/1 (it also had Albertas Run 2nd and Sparky May 3rd). Without doubt our best ever Festival Trends day.

I had 4 lines up on the Placepot

and to top it all off Yang is still in contention at the Masters Golf.

———-

ERADICATE runs in the 5pm and having lost money on him at Newbury and Sandown I reckon it’s time to get it back. A flat track, the drying ground and his usual rider being a conditional jockey all adds up to his best chance so far this season. I’m hoping for some 16/1……

The other one I’ll be backing today is SAPHIR DES BOIS in the 3.25. If there had been one more runner in the race it would have qualified as a Peter Bowen special but even so for the sake of 1 runner I’m going to have a small each way bet on it at 40/1.

———-

So onto the final day. I’ve got football with Dylan in the morning and then Poker in Bristol at 1pm. It’s the Poker Player Magazine open tournament and I just hope my luck holds for another 24 hours.

 The Trainers and Jockey Stats Guide. Today’s runners…..

TRAINERS

2.15 Ghizao

3.25 Tarablaze (14/1 or under)
3.25 Bensalem
3.25 Crescent Island  (50/1 or under)

4.15 Don’t Push It
4.15 Quolibet (25/1 or under)
4.15 Can’t Buy Time (25/1 or under)
4.15 Quinz (14/1 or under)

5.35 Persian Snow (14/1 or under)
5.35 Oscar Magic

JOCKEYS

2.15 Starluck
2.15 Ghizao

2.50 Salden Licht

3.25 Bensalem
3.25 Tarablaze (14/1 or under)
3.25 Carrickmines (10/1 or under)

4.15 Quinz (14/1 or under)
4.15 Don’t Push It
4.15 The Midnight Club (15/2 or under)

5.35 Persian Snow (14/1 or under)
5.35 Montbazon

———-

WHY YOU’RE HORSE WON’T WIN THE NATIONAL…….

Don’t Push It - Won the race last year and the last 15 horses to try and repeat a Grand National victory have finished:  PPPPP004640262F

Tidal Bay - With 11-09 on his back and his style of racing he’ll have his work cut out to set a new weight carrying record for the last 34 years.

Vic Venturi - In the last 51 years only Red Rum (1977) has managed to win the Grand National carrying more than 11-05

What A Friend - His trainers record in the race is terrible. Since 1999, Paul Nicholls has had 39 runners in the Grand National and managed just 3 places.

Majestic Concorde - Unlike the last 13 winners of the Grand National he’s yet to race 10 times over fences. He looks a little inexperienced for such a tough race with just 7 chase starts under his belt.

Or Noir De Somoza - How long have you got? He’s French Bred, he’s never won beyond 3 miles, he hasn’t had a recent run, he’s got a lot of weight, he’s not good enough…..

Dooneys Gate - All of the last 11 winners carried no more than 14lb higher than the bottom weight. With the lowest weighted runner this year set to carry 10-02 or 10-03 it means we’ll be looking for something weighted 11-03 or under.

Big Fella Thanks - He’s been beaten in the race twice already and now has a higher rating to contend with than for both those defeats. He always seems to weaken on the run-in no matter how far the race is run over.

BallaBriggs - Since 1990 every winner of the Grand National had run at least 4 times that season

The Tother One - Unlike all of the last 13 winners of the Grand National he’s yet to record a victory in a Class 1 or Class 2 Chase.

Niche Market - All of the last 11 winners had achieved a top 3 finish in at least one of their last 3 runs.

The Midnight Club - The last 6 Irish trained winners had all run over hurdles in one of their last two runs. The Midnight Club has been chasing for 12 months without reverting to the smaller obstacles.

Backstage - Only 1 winner since 1909 has been Bred in France.

Chief Dan George - He fell last time out which isn’t the best preparation run for the Aintree fences

Silver By Nature - Likes soft ground (which he won’t get) and is trained North of the border. The last Scotish trained winner of the Grand National was Rubstic……32 years ago!

Calgary Bay - It’s actually a bit of a struggle to find a solid reason why he can’t win but you could look at the fact that the trainer has only managed 6 winners all Season and he hasn’t had a recent run.

Killyglen - Since 1990 only 2 horses have won the Grand National having gone more than 18 months since their last win. It’s now more than 2 years since Killyglen last entered the winners enclosure.

Oscar Time - No jockey, not even Ruby Walsh or Tony McCoy, has ever managed to win the King George, Gold Cup and Grand National in the same season. What chance an amateur, Sam Waley-Cohen, is the first to do it?

Becauseicouldntsee -  No horse has ever won the Grand National with 18 letters in their name. (Numbersixvalverde had 17!)

Comply Or Die - Since 1990 only one horse has managed to win the Grand National after going more than 9 races since their last win. It’s now 10 races since Comply Or Die won his last race, the 2008 Grand National.

Quinz - The last novice to win the Grand National was Mr What in 1958

Quolibet - The last 7yo to win the Grand National was Bogskar in 1940

Grand Slam Hero - Since 1990 every winner of the Grand National had raced a maximum of 7 times that NH Season. On Saturday Grand Slam Hero will be having his 9th race since last May.

King Fontaine - No horse since at least 1998 had won 2 chase races in the same season as winning the Grand National

State of Play -  Since 1988 only one horse that finished in the previous years top 4 has gone on to win the National the following year.

Hello Bud - No 13 year old has managed to win the Grand National since Sergeant Murphy in 1923

In Compliance - Every winner since 1970 had already won a race at 3 miles or further. In 2010 only 2 of the 7 runners yet to win at 3miles+ even managed to complete the course (coming home in 11^th and 13^th of the 15 finishers).

Santa’s Son - From over 65 runners to have finished 9th or worse at the Cheltenham Festival only 1 horse has managed to win the National that same year (Don’t Push It who ran down the field in a handicap hurdle). Santa’s Son was 16th of 23 in the Grand Annual.

West End Rocker - He went from hero to zero when pulling up on his last run when there looked to be no obvious excuse. His top trainers last 31 NH runners have all been beaten.

Bluesea Cracker - Only 12 mares have ever won the Grand National and none have done so for 60 years (Nickel Coin in 1951 was the last).

Can’t Buy Time - He’s run in the race for the last two years and fallen both times (at the 18th and the 8th). I’d want danger money on top of my riding fee if I was Ritchie McLernon.

Character Building - A female jockey has yet to win the Grand National.

Ornais - French Bred, 8 chase starts, Paul Nicholls trains, only 2 starts this season…….

Piraya - Don’t listen to the little old lady down the bookies who always backs the grey horse in the National. Nicolaus Silver in 1961 is the only grey winner in the last 137 years! Piraya will not be the 2nd…

Surface To Air - If having just the one start since June 2008 wasn’t enough of a handicap this one’s only ever had 4 starts over fences in his entire career. I’d be very surprised if a horse as inexperienced as that has ever won a modern day Grand National.

That’s Rhythm - Every winner since 1999 had won a Chase race worth £17,000 or more. The most That’s Rhythm has won is £10,000 for a Class 3 Handicap at Bangor.

Arbor Supreme - All of the last 10 winners of the Grand National were proven good jumpers of fences. None of the 10 had fallen more than twice in their career. Arbor Supreme has fallen once and unseated twice including in this race last year.

Royal Rosa - All of the last 11 winners had achieved a Racing Post Chase rating of at least 144. He’s only managed 140. Oh, and he’s French.

Golden Kite - HE’S JUST SNEAKED INTO THE FIELD AND ALL LOOKS SET FOR A BIG RUN.

Skippers Brig - Only had 9 runs over fences.

Always Waining - He won’t win the National because the BHB handicapper is an idiot. Of the 3 horses due to race off the same weight Always Waining was deemed 3rd best of the 3 despite having won over the National fences. The other 2 horses made the line-up but ours was left as the 41st horse in the list. I hope he was watching the Topham and thinking to himself, I THINK I’VE MADE A MISTAKE HERE.

—————

And finally THE PLACEPOT

I will be trying for an unprecedented 3 Placepots in a row with this perm…..

2-8
3-4
2-5-8
2-7
8-15-17-30
2-4-21

= 288 lines

Good luck,
Gavin.

It seems Always Waining has just missed out on a place in the Grand National line-up having ended up as number 41 in the list. Anyone who followed my tip last month will get their money back on him as this means he was technically balloted out.

I think he has an excellent chance of winning the Topham Chase again this year and I’ll be putting my money back on him for today’s 3.40 race.

Here are todays Trainers and Jockey selections for Day 2 (taken from my stats guide)…….

TRAINERS

2.00 First in the Queue (25/1 or under)
2.00 A Media Luz (25/1 or under)

2.30 Master Of The Hall (25/1 or under)
2.30 Radium (25/1 or under)

3.05 Albertas Run

3.40 Always Waining
3.40 Mon Parrain (1st or 2nd favourite)
3.40 Isn’t that Lucky (25/1 or under)
3.40 Shakalakaboomboom (25/1 or under)
3.40 Forzy Origny (25/1 or under)
3.40 Polyfast (25/1 or under)

4.15 Mossley (25/1 or under)
4.15 Listen Look (50/1 or under)

4.50 Al Co (25/1 or under)
4.50 Ringaroses (25/1 or under)

5.25 Glorias Feeling (25/1 or under)
5.25 Heather Royal (25/1 or under)

JOCKEYS

2.00 Iolith

2.30 Wayward Prince

3.05 Albertas Run
3.05 Tartak (10/1 or under)

3.40 Mon Parrain
3.40 Always Waining (each way)

4.15 Jetnova
4.15 Saint Are (14/1 or under)

4.50 Ackertac (10/1 or under)

5.25 Eyesontheprize
5.25 Tante Sissi
5.25 Thynetocatcher (14/1 or under)

It has thrown up quite a lot of selections today but hopefully by reading through the breakdown in the Guide you can pick out a few gems amongst them.

PLACEPOT

There were quite a few comments and questions about the Placepot Perm yesterday. I did a feature on it some time ago which explained the bet in full detail. I’m trying to track the post down and I’ll publish the link as soon as I find it.

Yesterdays Perm was successful for 16 lines and the dividend paid £107.40. If you had done my perm for 10p it would have cost £28.80 and you would have won £171.84. A 5p perm would have cost £14.40 and won £85.92.

For the record Joyce (no, it’s not rude to ask ): I did it for 25p (£72 stake) and won £429.60

Today’s racing at Aintree is ultra tough but here is my attempt:

3-9-12
3-8
1-4
3-6-22-27
6-19
8-12-21

= 288 bets

Good luck,
Gavin.

You may recall that I published a lot of trainer and jockey stats for the Aintree meeting last week. Not to worry if you don’t because you can still download the FREE guide from here….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1926&i=l19

Having gone through the Thursday card and applying the Red Highlighted stats in the Guide I have come up with the following selections….

TRAINERS

2.30 GRANDOUET
2.30 KUMBESHWAR (if 14/1 or under)

3.05 CAROLES LEGACY

4.15 PEPSYROCK (if 25/1 or under)

4.50 ROYAL CHARM (if 1st or 2nd Favourite)

5.25 GET ME OUT OF HERE
5.25 RIO GAEL
5.25 SIRE COLLONGES (if 1st or 2nd favourite)

*The most interesting of all these runners is the Peter Bowen trained RIO GAEL in the last. He does really well with these types of runners at the meeting and they usually run well at big prices.

JOCKEYS

2.30 KUMBESHWAR
2.30 LOCAL HERO (14/1 or under)

3.05 CAROLES LEGACY
3.05 NACARAT

4.15 TCHICO POLOS

4.50 MEDERMIT
4.50 WISHFUL THINKING
4.50 ROYAL CHARM

5.25 GET ME OUT OF HERE

So that’s Kumbeshwar, Caroles Legacy, Royal Charm and Get Me Out Of Here on both lists.

——————

PLACEPOT

For anyone who wants to follow me with a Placepot this afternoon here is the perm I’ll be doing…..

 1-3
3-10
1-2-6
1-12-20-22
3-7-9
3-6

=288 lines

Good luck,
Gavin.

A lot of you have been asking what Gary fancies this week at Aintree so he’s kindly given the names of another lot of 3 outsiders which he considers worth backing. I’m sure you’ll understand that it will be most unlikely that he’ll be able to match his amazing exploits at Cheltenham (placed 14/1, placed 33/1 and 40/1 winner from 3 selections)…..

Day 1 3.40 Foxhunters
 
I’ll keep the first selection short and sweet. I think OFFSHORE ACCOUNT is a cracking each way bet having completed the course over these gruelling fences twice before. He finished 15th behind Mon Mome in the  2009 Grand National and then was 7th to Always Waining when sent off 7/1 favourite in last years Topham Chase. He has had a couple of runs in Hunters behind Ice Tea and Baby Run, finishing 3rd on both occasions, but this track will bring out the best in him and I expect him to be bang there at the end.

DAY 2 Friday 3.40 Topham Chase

This race holds some fabulous memories for me over the last 25 years but non more so than last year when I tipped Always Waining at 100/1 on both Matt’s blog and here on Gavins. As he seems unlikely to get a run in the Grand National he looks almost certain to turn up here instead and bid for a repeat win. He again has everything in his favour, rating, weight, age and a similar prep run over hurdles. The big difference being at this stage last year he was 100/1 compared to just 14/1 this year. Don’t get me wrong a 14/1 winner is lovely and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off doing him but I really like the look of one a bit further up the weights. CONSIGLIERE is an 8yo trained by David Pipe who finished 4th at Cheltenham in the Byrne Group Plate behind Holmwood Legend. He has Aintree experince having finished 10th in this race 2 years ago behind Irish Raptor and he was sent off the 6/1 favourite at last years meeting when 6th to Channinbar over the Mildmay Course. He has finished in the first 3 on 10 of his 19 runs over fences and, touch wood, has never failed to complete. If the top weights hold there ground he will have only 10-13 to carry which is a good racing weight. He is currently around 25/1 with most firms.

DAY 3 Saturday 4.45 GRAND NATIONAL

I have to admit that in recent years its not been a good race for me, with Maljimar falling at Bechers Brook 2nd time round last year when travelling well the latest disaster to strike, but I have had some amazing success in the race.  In 2001 I had a big each way ante-post bet at 50/1  on Red Marauder and had similar successes with Rough Quest and Amberleigh House but my crowning glory in the race came in 1990 when Mr Frisk won and I had the straight tricast up! I doubt I’ll ever do that again!

This year I have whittled it down to a short list of 5. They are Big Fella Thanks, Chief Dan George, King Fontaine, In Compliance and Can’t Buy Time. I have small investments at some very big prices on all these 5 plus Always Waining (but it’s looking unlikely he’ll get in). Of the 5 on the short list Big Fella Thanks is the most fancied in the betting and having been trained specifically for this race this year must have a serious each way chance at around 14-16/1.  Chief Dan George fell last time out at Cheltenham which isn’t the greatest prep run but his style of racing will be suited to this race and providing he stands up 40/1 could be a good ew bet. In Compliance and King Fonatiane are both around 50-66/1 and are lively outsiders as is Can’t Buy Time should he manage to stay on his feet this time (he’s fallen in both of the last 2 runnings of this race). Of the 5 I’m recommending an ew bet on KING FONTAINE at 66/1 with bet365

Gary’s 3 selections:

OFFSHORE ACCOUNT, CONSIGLIERE & KING FONTAINE

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AW JOCKEY GUIDE

I told you it was the best free guide ever given away and few people were arguing with that statement yesterday after the very first selection won at 14/1!

Two runners and one 14/1 winner. We couldn’t have asked for a better start and I’m sure there’ll be lots more big priced winners to come this Season. If you haven’t downloaded the guide yet, Why not? It’s FREE and the last similar guide I did made £1000 in 4 months from £10 bets.

It will be the best money you NEVER spent……….

Get your copy here >>>> http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1925&i=l18 

Or you can simply check the daily selections by clicking the AW Jockeys 2011 tab on the left hand menu. There are 4 runners today.

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

If you’re looking to spend your winnings from yesterday’s 14/1 winner then you might like to buy this years Aintree Festival Trends Guide which is on sale now for just £14.99.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Last year we highlighted Always Waining (22/1) and Big Time Billy (28/1) amongst our winners and sneaked 5th place in the National with Hello Bud. All 21 races are covered and Day 1 stats and selections will be ready from around 5pm today.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I love a bet on the Golf and the Masters is one of the best betting tournaments of the year but to be honest I’m hopeless at picking golf winners so I usually call up my cousin Terry and follow his advice. He’s an avid golf fan, has more than his fair share of golf winners and plays a mean 18 holes himself. After many years of trying I’ve finally managed to persuade him to do a piece for the blog and if his tipping this week is anywhere near as good as his writing we should be in for a very profitable time. Over to Terry…….

Forget tulips from Amsterdam, any golf fan will tell you that spring is only truly sighted with the arrival of the US Masters and the beautiful Augusta National course. Despite Sky television having gobbled up the tournament coverage the Beeb have retained weekend coverage, so everybody can still enjoy the most beautiful of all sporting events.

The Ashes winning captain Michael Vaughan recently said his most memorable sporting moment was attending the Masters for the first time. Enough said. The Masters is what sport was invented for, and when sport arrives there are always betting opportunities. 50/1 winners in golf are almost commonplace and 100 plus winners not unusual so the rewards of golf betting can be huge, but the time between winners can be longer. That said if you had predicted the last three major winners you could be playing at Dr No on your own island. In golf we are talking big fields, where the amount of possible winners can be vast. The Masters was where I had my first four figure win (I love olly), so let’s see what we can do this year.

Below I will list my selections and the reasoning. They could all be in contention come Sunday but they could also all be heading home come Friday. That is betting, and that especially is the nature of golf betting. There can be long periods between wins but the wins can truly be hugely rewarding. Golf betting should be a long term proposition (a cross channel swim rather than a couple of quick lengths in your local pool) but the Masters helps us out more than most tournaments. It has a restricted field, and with it’s unique set-up that can take years to master if at all, the list of possible winners is more favourable than most tournaments for us punters.

Five years ago Phil Mickleson won the tournament before the Masters by 13 shots, yesterday he won by 3. Apart from silencing the usual ‘he has lost it’ commentators, last nights win was significant because we now have a very obvious favourite. After only one top 10 this year the three times Masters winner has finally found form and at the right time, and after fifteen years he has finally overtaken Woods in the world rankings. Woods unfortunately is a shell of the man that rampaged across golf courses worldwide. Can he win it? Yes, horses for courses and all that, but he is not playing even like a 40-1 chance at the moment. And remember, Mickleson has won three times at Augusta even with Tiger at his peak. It shouldn’t surprise anybody if he wins again this year but he hasn’t defended on those previous occasions and I don’t think this pattern will be broken this year.

‘….it gets back to experience on that course. it helps a lot’ - Tom Watson

Most golf fields are around 150 entrants. The masters is much more closed. From the entrants you need to subtract the amateurs who make it there and the older past champions who are ceremonial. A debutant hasn’t won since Fuzzy over thirty years ago, so I’m removing them too. As always Tom Watson knows. Suddenly that field is less than half the size it was.

FOUR OFF THE TEE

1) JUSTIN ROSE missed the tournament last year having failed to qualify, but in his three previous visits to Augusta he has finished 5th, 36th and 20th. Now a proven winner on the PGA tour with two successes last year, he has come back into form just at the right time with a good showing at the Transitions Championship. Everybody assumes the most important stat at Augusta  is putting, but greens in regulation has the edge. In the last eleven years the winner has been been in the top four in GIR all but twice. This year Rose hasnt missed a cut, is twentieth in scoring averages and is currently third in GIR, and fifth overall in all the stats. a very solid performer who might just be about to reach the next step.

35/1 Paddy Power

2) HUNTER MAHAN five top tens out of nine starts this year shows he is a much better, much more consistant performer this year, as testified by his overall  stats position of sixth. Having finished top ten in his last two Augusta starts, Mahan could finally make it first over the finishing line.

30/1 Totesport (25/1 Paddy Power , Boylesports, Victor Chandler and Stan James)

3) LUKE DONALD Since they lengthened the course the perceived wisdom is you need power on your side. Well dont tell Zach Johnson who won at Augusta without going for a par 5 in two. Luke Donald only hits his driver 272 yards but won the recent World Matchplay on a course with two par fives of over 600 yards. His shortness he makes up for with beautifully controlled irons and the cliched silky smooth putting stroke. Both huge assets at the Masters. Donald is Faldo’s choice of the top European this week and its easy to make the case. Donald has had two further top tens this year, coming on back of a superb Ryder Cup, and the injuries which have hampered his career seem to be a thing of the past. With the weather forecast good, the course should hopefully play hard and fast. Few will benefit more than Donald if this pans out.

28/1 Paddy Power

4) YE YANG Constantly underrated by the bookies, he had a top ten at Augusta last year, is already a Major winner and can handle pressure better than most. If he is close to the lead on Sunday the 120s currently on Betfair will certainly give you a run for your money.

100/1 Totesport and William Hill (95/1 Paddy Power )

TOP 10 FINISH

VIJAY SINGH In the last eleven years Vijay has had six top tens including one win back in 2000. Unfortunately none of these have been in the last four years where he has been a bit more off the pace. This year though 48 year old Vijay seems to have turned back the years with two top three positions. As noted above this is a course where experience can pay dividends, so the 6/1 available on Betfair for a top ten seems an outstanding bet.

TOP AMATEUR

PETER UIHLEIN Does anybody know who this guy is? If you do you know your golf. Uihlein is the US Amateur champion, and has a top chance of being top amateur this week. In a field of just six he is the stand out. Recently he made the cut in the professional field at the Transitions, and then won in the Georgia Cup. Unlike some amateurs who never make the field this is a player who will be a solid addition to the tour. For now stick with top amateur at 2.5 on Betfair.

As always these are my thoughts. Do with them what you will. Do something or do nothing. Whatever you decide at least try and watch the beauty which is The Masters. Enjoy!

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Thanks Terry. Before you all go rushing off to back his golfers on Betfair there are a couple of things worth pointing out with regard to the online bookies. In the outright markets there are some fantastic bookmaker offers this week…..

While most bookmakers are now paying the first 5 in golf tournaments for each way bets both Paddy Power and Boylesports are paying the first 6 and still keeping it at 1/4 odds a place. Excellent news.

PLUS Boylesports will refund your win stake if your player is beaten in a playoff. Even better!

or

you could head on over to Stan James who will refund any losing win bet (as a free bet) on the outright market if Phil Mickelson or Tiger Woods win the Masters. That’s got to be worth considering. Imagine having a bet on the National and getting your money back if the 1st or 2nd favourite won?

or

why not try Victor Chandler. My personal favourite special offer. If your player scores a hole in one at any time during the Masters he’ll pay you out as if your player had won the Tournament. Imagine that, you could back the winner of the Masters on the Thursday. At the very least it should ensure that even if your player is 10 shots off the lead come Sunday you’ll still be glued to your TV set for the Par 3’s.

Good luck,
Gavin.

The Aintree Grand National Meeting starts on Thursday and I covered the Jockey and Trainer stats on the blog last week. I’ve put them all together in an easy to read guide and you can now download it completely FREE from here…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1926&i=l19

There is absolutely no catch whatsoever. It’s a direct link that will take you straight to the guide. (The numbers on the end simply help me keep count of how many are downloaded).

No card details, No email address, No name….Just one click and the guide is yours.

The other free giveaway is an All Weather Jockey’s Guide that I’ve been working on for the past week. It’s taken many, many hours to pull it all together but I’m really pleased with the end result and reckon it’s the best free guide I’ve ever given away.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1925&i=l18

This is also a direct link that will take you straight to the guide with No card details, No email address, No name required….Just one click and the guide is yours.

I did a similar Guide over the Winter and in the 4 months it ran for we had a lot of winners including a couple at 25/1 and 16/1. I used a small, low risk progressive staking plan to back the horses and starting off with £10 bets ran our £1000 bank to up over £2000 in 4 months. I’ll be using the same bank and staking plan this time around and I hope we get the same results again.

Obviously you don’t have to start with a £1000 bank, you can use whatever you are comfortable with. Then it’s simply a case of backing all the days runners for 1% of your bank. i.e for a £1000 bank it’s £10, £500 it’s £5, £100 it’s £1 etc. As the winners (and losers) are backed the bank changes daily depending on how we do and our stake for the following day also changes accordingly.

Of course you don’t even have to use a staking plan you can just back them as you please but any results I quote from this system will be based on using a 1% staking plan.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I thought I’d give you the horses I’ll be backing at Doncaster a day early as I probably won’t have time to post tomorrow. It’s Dylan’s last football game of the season and it just so happens to be the furthest away game they have. For those of you with a little local knowledge it’s Penarth vs St Brides Major and for those of you without it’s a 50 mile, 1 1/2 hour round trip. That’s quite a journey for a 30 minute under 8’s game. It is however quite close to the mother in laws so the family will be calling in to drop off the Mothers Day cards a day early thus killing two birds with one stone.

Anyway on with the show…..

It looks a really tricky card with loads of handicaps but seeing as how that’s never put me off before here are the horses I’ll be backing.

2.05 Doncaster. (Spring Mile)

On Good ground I’m of the opinion that there is no over-riding draw bias on the straight mile course at Doncaster. That’s not to say that on the day one side won’t be favoured,  I just mean that it could be either side that has the advantage (or it could even be that the middle numbers are favoured!). According to my data it’s only when the ground becomes softer that Low numbers begin to gain a marked advantage.

With Good ground likely it means the draw will play no part in my calculations and I’d be happy to back a horse coming from any stall number.

Which is just as well because I fancy two and they’re drawn on opposite sides of the track. Given Paul Coles record in the race you just cannot ignore the chances of Mata Keranjang. He ran 3rd in the Free Handicap last year off a rating of 106 and ran in the French Guineas. He got called a few nasty names after that as he struggled to win his maiden but eventually succeeded at odds of 1/4 in a class 4 race at Thirsk. On his last run of the season he got caught out by the sudden increase of pace in a 7f handicap and will be better suited by this mile trip. That he comes into this race with a handicap rating of 90 is incredible and if he doesn’t run a big race I’ll be amazed.

Just in case something goes horribly wrong with my main bet I’ll have a saver on a big priced outsider. His record on a straight mile is excellent with most of his form coming on Good or better going. In his younger days when with Willie Haggas he was rated over 100 and regularly ran in Group races both here and abroad. Although he’s not quite as good as he once was his new trainer seems to have got him nicely handicapped and his last run saw him finish a very respectable 5th in a big field at York behind well fancied Lincoln runner Gunner Lindley. James Sullivan’s 3lb claim will be mighty useful and the fast pace and straight course should suit him down to the ground. At 28/1 he’s worth a small each way punt….

MAIN BET: MATA KERANJANG 7/1
EW SELECTION: CHARLIE COOL 28/1

2.35 Cammidge Trophy

Barry Hills loves to win this race and he looks to have an excellent chance to win it again this year with his battle hardened old warrior Prime Defender. His last six runs have been in the highest company since taking a Group 2 at York last May and while he couldn’t get competitive in those races he wasn’t entirely disgraced on more than one occasion. This drop back to Listed company will be a welcome relief (he actually started last Season by running second in this race) and should see him regain winning ways. 

SELECTION: PRIME DEFENDER

3.10 The Lincoln

I’ve done the trends for this race but without giving too much away I can say that recent winners have tended to be 4yo’s from a top Newmarket yard that haven’t been running loads of times on the AW during the Winter. I make it between Taqleed and Gunner Lindley but I haven’t decided which of the two I’m going to back yet.

3.40 The Brocklesby

This traditionally used to be the first 2yo race of the Season but with the advent of the AW it no longer has the same position in the racing calendar. Even with some horses already having had a run it doesn’t make it any easier to solve and I won’t be betting in the race.

4.15 1m 2f maiden

John Gosden is your man when it comes to maidens at the track in the early part of the season. He runs two and they both ran down the field in a £1/2 million sales race at the backend of  last season.  Cobbs Quay finished higher up the field of the two and was staying on nicely at the end looking like a nice staying sort for this year. With plenty of similar types in this race I won’t be going overboard but I’ll be having a little bet on him.

SELECTION: COBBS QUAY

Which leaves two divisions of a class 4 handicap and an apprentice handicap to finish the card off with. That’s one race I won’t be getting involved in!

4.50 DIV 1

I’ve a feeling that Ocean Transit is going to be well backed in the morning and 5/1 will look very generous come the off of the race. She ended last season with a couple of class 5 handicap wins on the flat at Bath and Nottingham. Not bad but what is really interesting is the way her hurdles form really took off this Winter. She came into February on the back of some poor runs but recaptured her old form with a couple of wins in two fair looking races. Still not bad but it gets even better because on her next start she ran her heart out to just get up on the line for 3rd place at the Cheltenham Festival behind the mighty mare Quevega! Beaten just 11 lengths in receipt of 5lbs is a great run and while it’s always dodgy to try and equate hurdles and flat form that does look good and off just 8-13 here at Doncaster I fancy her as the one to beat.

SELECTION: OCEAN TRANSIT 5/1

5.20 DIV II

In the 5.20 I will simply be following the Ocean Transit formline by backing Richard Fahey’s Monkton Vale. He  finished third to her at Nottingham on his last start and off a 1lb lower mark it will be interesting to see how the form holds up.

SELECTION: MONKTON VALE

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All Weather Jockeys Guide

I’m just finishing off the latest of my free guides for the Spring/Summer and it will be ready for download on Monday. It’s a look at the Jockeys who ride on the All Weather during the months of April - August and the tracks and types of races they do best in. For those of you who followed the one I made over the Winter I’m sure you’ll be itching to get your hands on a copy.

For those of you who didn’t bother with it then you may be interested to know that Idoubled the starting bank of £1000 in 4 months using a low risk staking system that began with just £10 stakes. I’ll be over the moon if I can match that feat!

REMEMBER: This is a 100% completely FREE Guide. There is no catch and you’ll be able to follow the selections FREE on this Blog daily.

Although I haven’t finished writing up the guide I have finished the jockey research. At Kempton on Saturday there is one runner;

3.25 Lovers Causeway

Disclaimer: Of course there will be plenty of losers along the way but hopefully it will make a profit over the 5 month period. Nothing is guaranteed in racing. It is a system that should gradually build up its bank using a low risk staking system and if you’re expecting to win on every runner then it won’t be for you. Like the tortoise said to the hare….‘Slow and steady wins the races!’

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Aintree Trainers and Jockey Stats.

Thanks for all your emails and comments with regard to the Aintree stats. I’ll be putting up a link on Monday so you can download a pdf guide with all the Trainers and Jockeys I featured this week included. There are a couple of other smaller trainers included as well.

Again this will be completely 100% FREE with absolutely no catch whatsoever. Any selections the highlighted stats in the guide produce over the three days of the meeting will be given daily on this Blog.

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If you don’t like the idea of free stuff then there’s always my Festival Trends Guides which will be covering over 40 races this month at 8 different meetings. The Lincoln starts it all off tomorrow before we hit Aintree, Newmarket, Newbury, Sandown, Ayr, Fairyhouse and finish off back at Newmarket for the Guineas meeting.

Subscriptions are now being taken for the month of April for just £24.99….. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.