FLAT TRAINER TRACK STATS

I’ve had a few enquiries as to whether I’ll be producing a TTS Guide for the Flat Season this year. Basically, we used to do a TTS Guide covering all types of racing on the flat a few years ago but it wasn’t that successful so we stopped doing it. However, I did do a Juvenile TTS Guide last Summer, concentrating solely on 2yo races, which did work out very well and I’m currently doing the research for a similar Guide for this year.

Again it will cover the major stables and specialiase in their 2yo runners from May - October. It will cost around £20-£30 and all being well it will be ready in about a fortnight. I’ll keep you posted……

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Today sees the final part of look at the Aintree Trainer and Jockey Stats. From Monday you’ll be able to download the Guide in full (with a couple of extra trainers included) completely FREE.

I’ll also be posting any selections that arise from the highlighted Trainer or Jockey stats contained in the Guide (the part in red that is underlined). You’ll be able to find these selections from next Thursday by clicking the Grand National 2011 tab on the top of the left hand menu.

JONJO O’NEILL

Jonjo O’Neill has one of the best strike rates (15%) amongst the top trainers for the Aintree Grand National meeting thanks to his 12 winners from just 80 runners since 2004. He shows a profit of +£14.43 on all his runners over this time period. But beware as he’s also drawn a blank on 2 occasions (2005 & 2008).

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 2 / 14 (wins / runners) 2007 3 / 14 2008 0 / 6 2009 2 / 10 2010 3 / 8

NEGATIVES (Since 2004)

• The most striking stat of all is that every one of his 16 runners that ran over 2m-2m1f has been beaten with just 1 getting placed.

• All 7 of his NH flat runners have been beaten

• He’s had just 1 winner in Class 2 races from 13 runners

• His 4 and 5yo runners have yielded 0 winners from 12 runners

• The 17 horses that started 28/1 or bigger were all beaten

POSITIVES

• His record in handicap hurdles is an impressive 5 winners from 15 runners

• All 12 of his winners had run 5-30 times in their NH career

• 6 of his winners were in fields of 20 or more runners

Tony McCoy has ridden 8 of the 12 Jonjo O’Neill winners from 31 rides (25.8%) for a very impressive level stakes profit of +£26.86.

All you would have needed to do was back the Jonjo O’Neill horses running over 2m1f or further in Class 1 races that were 25/1 or under.

And hey presto! You’d have had 11 winners from 38 runners (28.9% strike rate) and a wallet-filling level stakes profit of +£46.43.

HOWARD JOHNSON

The Aintree meeting hasn’t been too kind to Howard Johnson over the years as he’s managed just 4 winners from 75 runners since 2004. That’s a pretty poor strike rate of 5.3% and his runners would have returned a level stakes loss of -£56.75.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 0/ 10 (wins / runners) 2007 1 / 10 2008 1 / 12 2009 1 / 11 2010 0 / 12

NEGATIVES (Since 2004)

• All 29 of his handicap runners have been beaten

• In races with 12 or more runners he’s 0 winners from 47 runners

• 59 of his 75 runners were sent off at 8/1 or higher and all were beaten

• All 34 runners to have moved up or down in grade from their previous start were beaten

• The 20 horses aged 4 or 5 to have run from the stable were all beaten.

• The 41 horses that ran after having been rested for more than 31 days were beaten

• All 6 runners that ran over 3m4f or further were unplaced

POSITIVES

• All 4 of his winners came in Class 1 races at the meeting

• All 4 of his winners returned 15/2 or under.

• All 4 winners finished in the top 2 on their last but one start

• All 4 winners were running at a distance of within 1f (+ or -) of their previous run

• All 4 winners were racing at the same class level as their previous run

• All 4 winners carried 11-02 or more (from 42 such runners)

• All 4 winners were aged 6yo or older

• All 4 winners had run in the last month

• All 4 winners had run at least 7 times in their NH career

So concentrate on the Howard Johnson fancied horses (under 8/1) that are running in fields of less than 12 runners and had their previous start in the last month.

They would have given a 4 winners from 10 runners, a winner a year for 4 of the last 5 Grand National meetings and a small Level Stakes Profit of +£8.25

PETER BOWEN

He may have a good overall record at the course throughout the year but the Welsh trainer has only managed 4 winners from 40 runners in April at a strike rate of just 10%, since 2004. You would however have won £49 by backing his horses to a £1 level stake thanks to Always Waining and Big Time Billy winning at odds of 22/1 and 28/1 at last years meeting.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 0/ 5 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 8
2008 0 / 10
2009 0 / 7
2010 2 / 3

NEGATIVES

• For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to do very well on the first day of the meeting as he has had no winners from his 7 runners on the Thursday.

• Races at 3 miles or further are not his forte either as he hasn’t had any winners at these extended distances from 22 runners since 2005.

• All 30 of his runners that were racing in the same class or 1 level lower or 1 level higher have been beaten.

• The 16 of his runners to have carried 11-02 or more have been beaten

• His 6 horses that carried 11-10 or more were all unplaced

• All 13 of his runners that last ran 32+ days ago have been beaten

• Tom O’Brien is surprisingly 0/14 for Peter Bowen at the Aintree National meeting.

POSITIVES

• 3 of his 4 winners came in handicaps. The other winner was in a NH Flat race

• All 4 of his winners came in races where there were 16 or more runners

• 3 of his 4 winners finished in the top 2 last time out (from just 11 such runners)

• All 4 of his winners were stepping up 2+ levels in Grade (from just 10 such runners)

• All 4 of his winners carried 11-01 or less

• All 4 of his winners had their previous run in the last month

Simply wait for Bowen to run a horse in a 16+ runner race, that is at least 2 grades higher in class to it’s last run and is carrying 11-01 or less.

He’s only had 6 such runners since 2005 but has had 4 winners at odds of 10/1, 25/1, 22/1 and 28/1.

AND THE LOSERS? They both fell.

Shame, because this was the Racing Post post race quote for one of them who was 20/1 …. ‘Led, headed after 2nd, chased leaders, led approaching 3 out, 7 lengths ahead and going clear when fell last’!

So that probably would have made 5 big priced winners from 6 runners but the 4 winners still make a LSP of +£83. Not too bad!

ALAN KING

He’s not had a lot of luck at the Grand National meeting with just 5 winners from his 93 runners since 2004, although all 5 have come since 2006. 2009 was a particularly bad year for the stable.

His overall record looks like this……

2006 2 / 16 (wins / runners) 2007 1 / 11 2008 1 / 10 2009 0 / 2010 1 / 12

NEGATIVES (Since 2004)

• All 7 of his runners tackling 3m4f or further ran unplaced

• All 30 of his Friday runners were beaten

• He’s had 35 runners start at 16/1 or bigger and all have been beaten (5 placed)

• Interestingly all 9 of his runners to be dropped in class, compared with their last run, got beat.

• Just 1 of his 48 runners carrying 11-02 or more have won

• All 5 of his NH flat runners were beaten.

POSITIVES

• 4 of his 5 winners have come on the Saturday of the meeting

• All 5 winners finished in the top 3 last time out

• All 5 winners carried between 10-00 and 11-05 to victory

• All 5 of his winners were either the eldest, joint eldest or 1 year younger than the oldest horse in the race (from 30 such runners)

• All 5 winners had been placed in at least 50% of all their career starts

• 4 of his 5 winners had their last run 15-25 days previously.

Richard Johnson has ridden 3 of the stables 5 winners from 60 rides.

If we look at his record since 2006 and concentrate on those runners who started at 14/1 or under, finished in the top 3 last time out and are aged within 1 year of the oldest horse in the race we would have backed all 5 winners from just 13 bets.

This would have given us at least 1 winner in 4 of the last 5 years and a LSP of +£36.00

You could have forgotten about his runners on the Friday of the meeting and saved yourself another 3 bets.

TOM O’BRIEN

He’s pretty decent at riding the track as his position in the Aintree Jockeys table shows but it’s a different story at the Grand National meeting where he’s 0 winners from 26 rides since 2005. He has though managed at least one placed horse a year since 2006.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 0 / 2 (wins / runners) 2007 0 / 6 2008 0 / 7 2009 0 / 6 2010 0 / 4

Hurdles 0 winners from 9 rides
Chases 0 winners from 15 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 2 rides

8 of his rides started at 28/1 or bigger and all were unplaced although 6 of his 7 placed rides were at odds of 12/1 or higher.

He’s ridden 14 times for Peter Bowen at the meeting without success. 4 of those rides were placed.

His record in handicap chases when riding at 11-07 or less on horses that had their last run in the previous 25 days is 2^nd at 12/1, 2^nd at 10/1, 4^th at 25/1 and 2^nd at 20/1

ROBERT THORNTON

He’s ridden at least 1 winner a year since 2004 for a total of 10 winners from 71 rides (14.1%). You would have won a very impressive £33.87 to level stakes by blindly backing all his rides.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2005 1 / 11 (wins / runners) 2007 1 / 10 2008 2 / 13 2009 3 / 12 2010 1 / 6

Hurdles 5 winners from 38 rides
Chases 3 winners from 26 rides
NH Flat 2 winners from 7 rides

6 of his winners came on the Thursday from 27 rides but he’s 1 from 18 on the Saturday. All 6 of his rides at 3m4f or further were unplaced. 7 of his winners were 1^st or 2^nd favourite.

All 10 of his winners had at least one top 2 finish from their last two starts. All 10 of his winners carried 10-12 or more. He’s 0 /13 when riding under this weight. All 10 of his winners were aged 4-8yo. He’s 0/11 on horses older than this and all were unplaced. All 10 of his winners had won at least 1 of their last 3 starts.

Alan King has provided him with 9 of his wins from 49 rides.

So back him when he’s riding at 10-12 or more for Alan King on horses that have at least 1 top 2 finish in their last 2 starts for 9 winners from 29 rides (31%) and a LSP of +£49.87

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. For those of you who followed my highly profitable AW Jockeys Guide over the winter you’ll be glad to know that I’ve sorted out the problems I had differentiating between AW and Turf form meaning I am able to compile a similar version for the Spring/Summer. I hope to have this ready for you sometime next week. Again it will be completely FREE although I’m not sure whether I’ll have enough time to post the daily selections.

Unless anyone out there fancies doing this for me? I’m sure I’ll be able to stretch to some free subscriptions to TTS / Festival Trends for anyone willing to take this on. Drop me an email if you’re interested.

In the third part of my Trainers & Jockeys Aintree Guide I’ve taken a look at Nigel Twiston-Davies, Donald McCain, Tony McCoy, Paddy Brennan and some of the big name Irish trainers.

NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

4 winners from 80 runners (5%) is his haul at the Aintree Festival for a very small +£1.50 level stakes profit. He’s had one winner at each of the last 3 meetings but he’s sent a lot of losers along for the ride as well.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 0 / 11 (wins / runners)
2007 0 / 11
2008 1 / 14
2009 1 / 12
2010 1 / 18

NEGATIVES (since 2004)

• All 20 of his runners on the Thursday were beaten with just 2 getting placed

• He’s had 19 runners over 3m4f+ and all have been unplaced

• He’s 0 from 15 in handicap hurdles and 1 from 38 in handicap chases

• 17 of his runners were sent off at 66/1 or bigger and all were unplaced

• 19 of his runners were racing over a 6f+ longer trip compared to their last run and all were unplaced

• The 10 horses he ran in a lower class compared to their last run all got beat

POSITIVES

• 3 of his 4 winners finished in the top 2 last time out

• All 4 winners carried 11-09 or less

• All 4 winners were 5 – 10yo’s

• All 4 winners had run in the last 40 days

• 3 of his 4 winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts

Paddy Brennan has ridden 3 of the stables 4 winners from 29 rides.

Don’t bother with his runners on the first day and just back those that are 50/1 or shorter in races up to 3m4f. Oh and don’t back his runners in handicap hurdles.

This would have given you 4 winners from 28 bets and a LSP of +£53.50

If you had then just backed those that finished in the top 2 last time out you would have had 6 runners that finished 1PP11P for a LSP of +£66.50.

DONALD McCAIN

If judged on his record so far he has a long way to go before he usurps his dad, Ginger, as the King Of Aintree. He’s managed just 1 winner to date from 32 runners and as that was 5/4 favourite Peddlers Cross at last years meeting he’s currently showing a level stakes loss of -£29.75.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 0 / 1 (wins / runners) 2007 0 / 8 2008 0 / 7 2009 0 / 8 2010 1 / 8

It is worth pointing out though that 29 of his 32 runners started at 10/1 or bigger and 25 were 16/1+ outsiders.

All 14 horses he has run in chase and NH flat events have finished out of the frame. In handicap and novice hurdles he has a record of 1 win and 6 places from 15 runners.

His runners that finished in the top 2 last time out have given him 1 winner and 5 places from 12 runners

PADDY BRENNAN

Paddy Brennan has ridden 7 winners from 66 rides (10.6%) at the rate of at least 1 a year over the past 6 Aintree Festivals. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £13.75 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 1 / 10 (wins / runners) 2007 1 / 11 2008 1 / 12 2009 2 / 13 2010 1 / 15

Hurdles 4 winners from 33 rides
Chases 3 winners from 29 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 4 rides

6 of his 7 winners were returned 10/1 or shorter (from just 19 such rides). The 19 horses he has ridden that were 28/1 or bigger all finished unplaced.

When riding at 10-00 – 10-03 his record is 2 wins (7/1 & 8/1) and 1 place (16/1) from 5 rides. Full form figures are: 41F71

All of his 7 winners were aged 6-10yo. He is 0 from 18 (just 1 place) on 4 and 5yo’s.

All 7 of his winners last ran between 15-40 days ago.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has provided him with 29 of his rides and he has won on 3 of them.

Simply back all his rides that are aged 6-10 and are 10/1 or less in the betting. You would have had 6 winners from 13 rides (46.2%) and a profit of +£22.25

A P McCOY

The great Tony McCoy hasn’t been smiling too much at recent Cheltenham Festivals but it’s a different story at Aintree where he’s ridden 18 winners since 2004 from 107 rides. In all but 1 of the last 7 April meetings he’s ridden at least 2 winners and backing all his runners over this period would have won you £13.44 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 4 / 17 (wins / runners)
2007 3 / 14
2008 1 / 17
2009 2 / 16
2010 3 / 13

Hurdles 8 winners from 57 rides
Chases 10 winners from 42 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 8 rides

8 of his winners (and another 7 placed efforts) came in fields of 16 or more runners from 40 such rides.

All 18 winners returned 14/1 or less with his 11 rides starting at higher odds getting beat.

7 of his winners won their previous start (27 such rides) and 13 of his 18 winners finished in the top 3 last time out.

17 of the 18 winners he rode carried 10-12 or more. The 6 horses he rode that carried less than 10-08 were all unplaced.

The age of the horse is no barrier to success for McCoy as he has won on a horse from every age group from 4 – 11yo.

17 of his 18 winners had their previous start within the last 31 days.

Jonjo O’Neill has provided McCoy with 31 rides and he has scored on 8 of them plus he has been placed another 6 times.

To make the most out of McCoy at the Aintree Festival it seems you need to forget his rides in NH Flat races and back him on horses carrying 10-12 or more, that are 14/1 or shorter in the betting and had their previous run in the last month.

That would have given you 16 winners from 62 rides and a strike rate of just over 1 in 4 (25.8%). You would also have made a LSP of +£37.44

His rides in chase races under these conditions would have given 9 winners from 23 rides (39.1%) and a LSP of £30.70.

DAVID PIPE

Despite sending loads of runners (62) to the meeting David Pipe has only had 3 winners since starting his training career in 2007.

His record for the last 4 years has been….

2007 0 / 16 (wins / runners) 2008 2 / 16 2009 1 / 19 2010 0 / 11

All 3 of his winners were at 3 miles or further (28 losers at shorter trips). All 3 winners were chasers (from 33 runners) and all won Class 1 races. All 4 of his horses sent off at 9/2 or shorter got beat but all his winners returned 14/1 or under. Of the 34 horses that were sent off 16/1 or bigger, none won and only 3 were placed. All 3 winners carried 10-08 or more (9 losers carrying less weight than that) and had all won at least 1 of their last 2 starts.

Most interesting of all is that his 3 winners were all aged 8-10yo with the 35 runners from the stable aged under 8 all getting beaten (just 6 placed).

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The Aintree Grand National Festival isn’t a meeting that the Irish tend to target (except the big race itself) as they are usually resting their horses after Cheltenham ready for the Punchestown meeting a few weeks later.

WILLIE MULLINS

He may dominate the Cheltenham Festival from an Irish point of view but his record at Aintree is pretty poor with just 1 winner since 2004 from 33 runners. That solitary winner was the well supported Grand National winner Hedgehunter in 2006.

NOEL CHANCE

He’s only had 8 runners at the meeting since 2005 and only 2 have been placed. 6 of those ran on the Saturday and 7 of the 8 started at 12/1 or bigger.

E J O’GRADY

He’s sent 9 runners over the Irish Sea since 2004 for a return of just 3 places. With 7 of the 9 starting at 14/1 or shorter, including 3 under 9/2, he’s one Irish trainer to be wary of at the meeting.

DESSIE HUGHES

Another trainer who’s been suffering over the last few years with 16 losers stretching back to 2006 including 8 at last years meeting. 7 of his 16 losers were sent off at 14/1 or less.

A J MARTIN

Tony Martin has only run 3 horses at the meeting since 2004. They finished 11^th / PU / PU.

MRS JOHN HARRINGTON

Jessica Harrington has had two winners since 2004 from 7 runners thanks both times to the great 2 mile chaser Moscow Flyer. Her last runner at the meeting was in 2008.

C. BYRNES

He’s had 1 winner from 5 runners since 2006. His horses are usually fancied when he sends one over and they are worth keeping an eye on.

PAUL NOLAN

He’s not even managed a place from his 8 runners since 2005. In fact 6^th is the best any of his horses have finished and that was in a 7 horse race. Another one to be wary of.

Tomorrow I’ll finish off with Howard Johnson, Peter Bowen, Alan King, Jonjo O’Neill, Robert Thorton and Tom O’Brien. I’ve put them all together in one easy to read guide and you can download it for FREE from Monday. There are a few bonus trainers that I haven’t looked at on the blog included in this guide.

Festival Trends subscribers can download this guide now from the Members Area.

Good luck,
Gavin.

In the second part of my Trainer and Jockey stats guide I’ve taken a look at Phillip Hobbs, Gary Moore and Richard Johnson to see if there are any angles we can exploit…..

PHILLIP HOBBS

Things haven’t been to good for Phillip Hobbs at recent Aintree Festivals as he’s managed just 5 winners from 93 runners (5.4%). Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £44.00 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 2 / 16 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 11
2008 1 / 10
2009 0 / 17
2010 1 / 12

NEGATIVES

• All 30 of his runners on the Friday of the meeting were beaten

• All 7 runners to have raced at 3m4f or further were unplaced

• His 5 NH Flat runners were all beaten

• All 35 of his horses to start at 16/1 or bigger were beaten

POSITIVES

• All 5 winners returned between 3/1 and 14/1 (from 54 such runners)

• All 5 winners finished in the top 3 last time out

• All 5 winners carried 11-05 or less

• All 5 winners were aged within 1 year of the oldest horse in the race (from 30 such runners)

Richard Johnson has ridden 3 of Phillip Hobbs’s winners from 60 rides for the stable.

If we had concentrated on his runners from 2006 that had finished in the top 3 on their previous run, were the eldest, joint eldest or 1 year younger than the oldest horse in the race and were 14/1 or shorter we would have had 5 winners from 13 runners (38.5%).

This would also have shown a level stakes profit of +£36.00.

GARY MOORE

He’s managed just 1 winner and 2 places from 28 runners since 2004. He shows a level stakes loss of -£18.00.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 0 / 5 (wins / runners)
2007 0 / 3
2008 0 / 4
2009 0 / 6
2010 1 / 6

He’s a trainer to treat with caution at this meeting as he’s had 5 losers at odds of 15/2 or under and just 1 winner from his 16 runners at 14/1 or less. Only 1 other even managed to make the frame.

Don’t be fooled by good form figures either as 16 of his 28 runners finished in the top 4 last time out but only 2 made the frame here (including his 1 winner).

The 9 horses he ran aged 7yo or older were all unplaced.

His son Jamie Moore rode the stables only winner but it’s the only horse he’s made the frame on from 16 rides.

RICHARD JOHNSON

With the Phillip Hobbs stable under performing at recent Festivals it’s not surprising to see Richard Johnson struggle here with just 6 winners from 87 rides (6.9%) since 2004. Backing all his rides over this period would have lost you £48.37 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 2 / 16 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 12
2008 1 / 9
2009 0 / 12
2010 1 / 11

Hurdles 5 winners from 44 rides
Chases 1 winners from 36 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 7 rides

All 6 of his winners came in races up to 3m1f in distance with all 7 of his rides beyond this trip being unplaced.
He’s also 0 from 10 in Class 2 races at the meeting.
His 30 rides starting at 15/1 or bigger have all been beaten with just 1 such horse placed for him.
All 7 of his winners finished in the top 3 on their previous start (41 losers finished 4^th or worse).
The 11 horses he rode carrying 10-07 or less were all unplaced.

Phillip Hobbs has given him the leg up 60 times but he’s only won 3 races (+18 places) for him whereas he’s 3 winners from just 13 rides for Henry Daly (+2 places)

Since 2005 if you had backed his rides that were 14/1 or under had finished in the top 3 last time out and carried 10-08 or more you’d have made a LSP of +£13.62. That was from 6 winners and 25 rides (24%)

Tomorrow it’s the turn of Nigel Twiston-Davies, Donald McCain, The Irish trainers, Tony McCoy and Paddy Brennan.

Good luck,
Gavin.

We’re now into the part of the year that is my favourite time for punting. The flat’s about to start, the Guineas are just around the corner and the jumping National’s (Grand/Irish and Scottish) all take place in the next month. I’m also hoping it’s 3rd time lucky for my Newbury Spring Cup trainer stat that has been so unlucky in the last 2 years. In 2009 the selection didn’t make the cut for the race but the trainer obviously had him fit and ready for the race because he won 3 days later having been gambled on from 14/1 into 8’s. Last year the trainer entered two and I was really keen on one of them, Moynahan. He was another not to get into the race but ran a couple of days later where he finished an unlucky 3rd. He did win a couple of weeks later though at 5/1. Just remember, if Paul Cole runs a horse in the Spring Cup at Newbury, back it regardless of form. And if he enters a horse for the race and it doesn’t run back it whenever or wherever it does.

I’m in the process of putting together a number of Guides for the Flat and have just completed one for the Jumps. Most will be given away FREE over the next couple of weeks including the Jumps one, of which, the first part is included later in this post.

April is also one of the busiest and most profitable months of the year for Festival Trends and I’m really hoping I can get somewhere near to matching last years exploits.

Who can forget the Irish National winner, Bluesea Cracker, at 25/1? I gave that one away FREE and you’ll be glad to know I’ll be doing that again in a couple of weeks time. Having tipped the 33/1 Niche Market in 2009 as well we’re on course for an incredible big priced treble. Don’t be fooled by one particular Trends service who claims to have tipped this winner. He wasn’t even in business then and simply stole my results!

How about the Scottish National? We had to tip joint selections (Merigo and Gone To Lunch) in that race as we couldn’t split two of them but it didn’t matter because they came 1st and 2nd for an 18/1 winner and a monster forecast.

or what about Aintree? Always Waining recommened at 50/1 and Big Time Billy at 28/1 were just 2 of the winners we tipped at the home of the Grand National (another 2 results stole by this particular rival trends service)

If you haven’t got a subscription yet then now is the time to join>>>> http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

There are subscriptions available for The Grand National, Aintree, the rest of the NH Season or the whole year. 

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FREE TRAINERS AND JOCKEY STATS

After the success of the FREE Jockey and Trainer Guide I did for Cheltenham I’ve been back doing the research for the Grand National Meeting at Aintree. Covering 15 UK based trainers and 6 jockeys the Guide is 16 pages long and contains some great nuggets of information.

I’ll release it the same way as I did last time with different trainers covered all this week on the blog and then on Monday 4th you’ll be able to download it as a Guide, completely FREE. For Festival Trends subscribers the full Guide is available to download now in the Members Area.

We’ll start at the top and have a look at Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Ruby Walsh today……

PAUL NICHOLLS

Since 2004 Paul Nicholls has had just 14 winners from 178 runners (7.9%) at this meeting. He has however managed at least 1 winner every year. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you a whopping £118.28 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 2 / 35 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 21
2008 5 / 28
2009 1 / 29
2010 3 / 23

NEGATIVES (Since 2004)

• All 26 of his runners that ran over 3m4f or further have been beaten with just 3 getting placed

• All 9 of his NH Flat runners have been beaten (just 1 placed)

• He’s had just 3 handicap winners from 83 runners

• In Class 2 races at the meeting he’s just 2 winners from 39 runners (5.1%)

• All 102 of his horses to have been sent of at odds of 8/1 or higher have been beaten

• All 114 of his runners to have started outside the top 2 in the betting have been beaten

• All 14 of his runners stepping up in Grade by 3+ levels have been beaten

• All 16 of his runners carrying 10-07 or less have been beaten

• All 9 of his winners carrying 12-00 or more have been beaten

• All 21 of his horses aged 10 or older have been beaten (1 / 60 horses aged 8+)

• All 13 of his runners to have run in the last 2 weeks have been beaten (1 placed)

• All 58 of his runners to have had 16 or more NH career runs have been beaten
  
  POSITIVES

• All 14 of his winners were 1^st or 2^nd Favourites (from 64 such runners)

• All 14 of his winners had a top 3 finish in their last but one race

• All 14 of his winners had won a race in the last 12 months

• All 14 of his winners had run at least 3 times in their career

• 13 of his 14 winners had run 5 or more times over jumps

• 13 of his 14 winners carried 10-08 – 11-09 (123 such runners)

• 13 of his 14 winners had been rested at least 20 days since their last run

• 12 of his 14 winners were aged 5 – 7yo (102 such runners)

• Ruby Walsh has ridden 13 of Paul Nicholls’ 14 winners from 91 rides for the stable. Christian Williams is 0/11 and Sam Thomas is 0/10.

So, forget NH Flat races and simply back the Ruby Walsh ridden horses that have had 3-15 NH starts and are in the top 2 of the betting.

This would have given you 13 winners from 37 runners and a LSP of +£18.96 You would also have backed at least 1 winner every year since 2004.

NICKY HENDERSON

Since 2004 Nicky Henderson has had 9 winners from 111 runners (8.1%) at the Aintree Festival but backing all his runners over this period would have lost you just £10.62 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 1 / 21 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 11
2008 3 / 15
2009 0 / 16
2010 3 / 19

NEGATIVES (Since 2004)

• All 35 of his runners on the Saturday of the meeting were beaten

• All 25 of his runners that carried 13lb or more than the bottom weight got beat

• Only 1 of his 17 runners that carried 15lb or more than the bottom weight managed to make the frame

• He’s 0 from 22 in handicap hurdles

• Of the 30 of his horses to carry 11-06 or more only 1 has won (it had 12-00)

• All 6 of his runners at 3m4f or further were unplaced.

• All 7 of his runners that pulled up on their previous run failed to make the frame here at Aintree
  POSITIVES 

• 8 of his 9 winners had won at least 1 of their last 3 starts

• 6 of his 9 winners were in chase events

• All 9 winners returned 25/1 or under

• Barry Geraghty has ridden 3 winners from his 19 rides. Marcus Foley is 0 from 12.
  
  Back the Henderson runners on the Thursday and the Friday that are 25/1 or less. Forget the handicap hurdles and any horse carrying more than 11-05 for 8 winners from 36 runners (22.2%) You’d also have made +£58.87 to level stakes.

RUBY WALSH

With the backing of Paul Nicholls it’s hardly surprising to see Ruby Walsh towards the top of the jockeys table for this meeting. He’s managed at least 1 winner a year since 2004 for a total of 18 wins from 109 rides. He does however show a Level Stakes Loss of -£18.53

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 3 / 18 (wins / runners)
2007 1 / 14
2008 5 / 18
2009 2 / 18
2010 3 / 15

Hurdles 9 winners from 49 rides
Chases 7 winners from 50 rides
NH Flat 2 winners from 10 rides

All 18 of his winners were 15/2 or shorter and from the top 5 in the betting. 39 of his losers were on horses that returned at bigger odds than this.

All 18 of his winners finished in the top 3 on at least 1 of their last 2 starts. Only 8 of the 18 had managed to finish in the top 3 on both of their last 2 starts.

17 of his 18 winners carried 10-08 – 11-09

15 of his 18 winners were aged 5-7yo. He’s just 1 winner from 14 rides on 4yo’s at the meeting.

Paul Nicholls has provided Ruby Walsh with 91 of his 109 rides and he has won on 13 of them. Together they show a Level Stakes Loss of -£35.03

For other trainers he is 5 winners from 18 rides and shows a LSP of +£16.50

If you had backed all of Ruby Walsh’s rides that were 5-7yo, at 15/2 or shorter in the betting and carrying 10-08 – 11-09 you would have had 14 winners from 43 rides (32.6%) and made a LSP of +£27.63 since 2004.

Tomorrow it’s the turn of Phillip Hobbs, George Moore and Richard Johnson.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Having had a while to think about it I’ve decided to draw a line under Cheltenham and look forward rather than back. Having fluked my way out of the meeting with Gary’s tip I’m sure there are plenty of less fortunate readers who don’t want to have their noses rubbed in it or wish to read how I managed to do it. So, the previous post I wrote are now my final words on the subject.

And there is an awful lot to look forward to in the coming months not least of which is the Grand National.

I mentioned in my last post that I was in the process of compiling a Trainers and Jockeys Guide for Aintree, similar to the one I made for Cheltenham, and although it’s early days yet I have to say the stats are looking even better for this meeting.

Which leads me on to how I came up with today’s Grand National tip….

Welsh trainer Peter Bowen is pretty good at sending winners to Aintree throughout the year although his record at the Grand National meeting shows only 4 winners from 75 runners since 2004. While doing the research for the new guide I found that those 4 winners all had the same profile along with just 2 other runners that had both fallen.

4 winners from 6 runners isn’t too bad though especially when you look at the odds….10/1, 25/1, 22/1 and 28/1!

But what’s even more amazing is that one of the fallers, who was 20/1, had the Racing Post comment of…..‘Led, headed after 2nd, chased leaders, led approaching 3 out, 7 lengths ahead and going clear when fell last’!

Crikey. 4 big priced winners and an unlucky faller at 20/1 from just 6 runners (his other faller was at the 20th fence in the Grand National). That’s got to be worth noting.

So what type of horse are we looking for? It’s quite simple really. Just wait for Peter Bowen to run a horse in a 16+ runner race that is carrying 11-01 or less and is running in a race at least 2 grades higher than it’s last start. Applying these 3 simple rules to all Bowen runners at the Aintree Grand National Meeting would have given you those 4 winners from 6 runners since 2005 and made you a level stakes profit of +£83.00

He’s got just one runner entered for the National this year and he’s probably a horse that a lot of people recognise because we tipped him at 50/1 at last years Aintree Grand National meeting. (This makes him a course winner as well which is never a bad thing!)

The National is sure to have a 16+ runner field, this horse will carry less than 11-02 and after competing in a class 4 handicap hurdle today will be upped in class by 3 grades for the National. He’s 50th in the weights so I’d be hopeful he’d make the line-up. The only problem we do have is that the horse may try to win the same race he won at the meeting last year so won’t run in the National.

Still at 100/1 he’s got to be worth chancing a little each way.

SELECTION: ALWAYS WAINING 100/1 (Stan James)

*The 100/1 has now gone but Bet365 are 80/1 and are paying each the first 5. They are also Non Runner - No Bet.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’d just like to add my two pennies worth to the comments and emails that have been flying around over the weekend.

Yes the trends were less than impressive last week. They didn’t work out too well and there were quite a few stat busting results - a 6yo winning the Gold Cup, a once raced horse winning the Triumph, Montjeu siring a Cheltenham winner are just a few examples. There’s not much I can do if the trends don’t hold up. Even the trends expert in the Racing Post  struggled last week giving just three winners over the 4 days.

BUT despite all that we actually managed to make a profit on the guide. Al Ferof got us off to a flyer and Big Bucks and Bobs Worth were a couple of shortpriced winners tipped by us as trends selections (oh, and a non runner). On the top-rated lists we gave out Hurricane Fly, Bensalem, Quevega, Junior, Long Run, Big Bucks, Bobs Worth and the now infamous Oiseau De Nuit as clearly marked selections. There were no claims from me of any winner being on a shortlist. Nobody should have lost money on our Champion Hurdle trends tip as it finished 2nd and I told everyone to back it with Boylesports who gave you your money back. With our ante-post guide giving Long Run at 6/1, Non-runner Binocular and Medermit at 14’s in the 3 Cheltenham races covered you’d be hard pressed not to have won money there.  Which leaves the Handicap Sheet for which I’ll hold my hands up and say none of the 4 horses won. But 2 ran in alternative races (everyone was betting non-runner no bet by the time I published this so you can’t have lost on either) and the other two were tipped at 33/1 and 20/1 and went off 14/1 and 7/1. Backing horses at much bigger odds is a surefire way of making money in the long run and is a method of betting that I will continue to follow.

There is no guarantee that any of our guides will make money (this is racing afterall) only that I will always try my hardest, using the information I have sourced, to make the best trends selections possible. Remember, contrary to what some people may think, I do back all these horses myself.

Onto Gary…..

I asked him to nominate his horses for the week and he gave up his time to do so. The three outsiders he tipped gave two places and a 40/1 winner. Even Pricewise would be proud of that! It is totally irrelevant how many losers he backed last week because he didn’t broadcast them in the post he wrote. Of course there were a few, who didn’t back losers last week? but I can tell you that even though he could never be described as a big punter (a wife, 6 kids and a mortgage to pay doesn’t leave a lot to gamble with) he won a LOT of money last week. And a 40/1 winner pays for a helluva lot of losers. If Kumbeshwar had held on in the Fred Winter it would have been 10’s of thousands. Even though I strongly fancied the trends horse in the Grand Annual (Shoreacres) Gary made a good case for backing Oiseau de Nuit and it persuaded me, and I know a lot of others, to back it.

And if you’re excuse for not backing Oiseau De Nuit is that you didn’t fancy it then ask yourself, just how many 40/1 shots are fancied? That’s the whole point. It’s 40/1 because not many do fancy it. But even after saying that, how this horse was allowed to go off at that price is anyone’s guess. Oiseau De Nuit had course form, had been running without disgrace in Graded chases this Season, had the favourite well behind on its last run and most certainly DID have the form to win the Grand Annual. That is why Gary is so good at finding these big priced winners. He’s not blindly following the market backing 4/1 favourites that can’t win he’s looking for a 40/1 shot that if it ran to it’s best form then should actually be the 4/1 favourite. Go back and re-read what he said about the horse- he made it his best bet of the week, he told you that it was the horse to get out on at the meeting and he even told you how the jockey would ride him!

Anyhow…..

Having spoken to the parties concerned it appears that some comments may have been misconstrued or misinterpreted and apologies have been offered and accepted. I’m happy to draw a line under the weeks events and move on.

And move on we most certainly will because it’’s a very busy period of the year coming up with the Aintree Festival, the start of the flat season and the most eagerly awaited race set to be run this year. No it’s not Frankels debut run, either of the Guineas, the Grand National and it’s not even the Derby….. It’s the Irish National where we’re going for an unprecedented tipping hat-trick having had the last two winners at 33/1 and 25/1. 

I’m currently researching a similar jockey and trainer stat manual, for Aintree, to the one I did for Cheltenham. It’s early days yet but it’s already thrown up some amazing stats including this one:

- All 102 (YES, 102!) horses that Paul Nicholls has sent to Aintree since 2004 that started at 8/1 or bigger have been beaten. That is phenomenal and accounts for over 50% of all his runners at the meeting in the corresponding time frame.

Following on from that, ALL 14 of his winners started 1st or 2nd favourite! EVERY one of the 114 horses that started outside the front two in the betting has been beaten.

It looks like that unless the Nicholls horse is fancied it won’t be winning this April at Aintree!

——-

The Chase Audition

Unfortunately I didn’t pass the audition for the Chase (despite winning all the games and answering the most questions in my audition group) so you won’t be seeing me on the telly anytime soon. It was a strange day all round and an experience I won’t be rushing to repeat. Being rejected isn’t the best feeling in the world. Whatever they’re looking for in a quiz contestant I obviously don’t have it. You would have thought for that type of show it would be a good general knowledge and a willingness to gamble but alas it is not.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Regular readers of the blog will need no reminding just how good my brother Gary is when it comes to tipping outsiders (who could forget his Chief Dan George/A New Story double at Cheltenham last year?) but just in case you weren’t aware of his tipping prowess he re-advertised his claims to be regarded as the king of the outsiders with his selections this week.

I asked him to give us his three best longshots at the Festival and he came up with A New Story, Kumbeshwar and Osieau De Nuit. Three horses which gave us a 14/1 3rd, a 33/1 2nd and a winner at the incredible odds of 40/1. I know from the comments and emails I’ve received that quite a few of you were on and some of you have won serious amounts of money. I’ve passed them on to Gary which I’m sure he’ll read once he’s finished counting his winnings.

Matt and I were watching the racing in the Ladbrokes in Aldgate yesterday and such was Osieau’s superiority in the race we were high fiving and cheering before he had even jumped the last. A truly amazing tip that had us celebrating well into the night.

As a result I’m feeling a bit rough this morning and I’m not going to ramble on anymore as it’s time for a greasy fry-up. For once the orange juice and Starburst hasn’t done the trick. Before I go here are the trends for today’s big race….

MIDLANDS GRAND NATIONAL (3.00pm Uttoxeter)

There hasn’t been a winner of this race aged 10 or older since 1995….
ruling out Companero, Nicto De Beauchene, Toby Jug, Ballyfitz, Ballyfoy, Halcon Genelardais and Ma Yahab

9 of the last 10 winners who completed the course last time out finished in the top 3….
Trick Trickster and Noble Concorde didn’t

7 of the last 8 winners had won a race that season….
Gentle Ranger, Le Beau Bai, Bench Warrant and Minella Four Star haven’t

Last years winner Synchronised was the first winner to carry more than 11-00 to victory since 1999. He has his work cut out again this year from an even higher weight of 11-12 and a rating of 159 (compared to 143 last year). In fact previous to that the last 7 winners were rated 132 or less. This rules out Alfie Sherrin and Belon Gale and leaves us with two…..

Triggerman and Qhilimar

I’ll be backing them both.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. I’ll give you an account of my Festival punting all next week. The story of one man’s fight against the bookies. (Plot spoiler: It has a happy ending!)

Wednesday was a good day if you were Irish but not unfortunately if you follow race trends. As I fall squarely in the latter camp it will come as no surprise that I did my proverbials yesterday and will be looking to recoup the losses today.

The Thursday of the meeting is traditionally a poor day for the Irish and even with their horses running so well this week (and it being St Patricks day) I can see their long losing run continuing.

We kick off with the Jewson Novice Chase which is a brand new race that doesn’t have any trends. After yesterday this is a bit of a blessing and means I can try a bit of good old fashioned form study. I’ll be siding with Mr Gardner after his run behind Medermit and Captain Chris last time out where but for a bad mistake 2 out he would have been more involved in the finish. I’ll also be having an each-way bet on Bouggler who was a pretty decent hurdler and hasn’t done too badly over fences.

The Pertemps Final Hurdle has been won by the Irish in the past but it has been 5 years since their last success. It’s a real nightmare to try and sort out but I’ve been keen on the chances of Duke Of Lucca for some time now and I’ll be sticking with him.

The Irish have never won the Ryanair Chase and that looks set to continue today. I’ve backed Kalahari King each way at 14/1 ante-post and in a poor renewal of the race I can’t see him finishing out of the first three. I won’t be backing him again as there is a very strong trends horse in the race which will be carrying my money. Of the bigger priced runners I could give a chance to Tartak but little else.

You have to go all the way back to 1995 to find the last Irish winner of the Stayers/World Hurdle and with the market dominated by two British trained runners it could be at least another year before they get back on the scoresheet for this race. I’ve had a nice each way bet on Cross Kennon at 150/1 ante-post so I hope he makes the frame but even though he’s improving with every run it’s still a big ask. I’ll be having another small each way bet today, this time on Ashkazar at 40/1.

It’s gets even worse in the Festival Plate for the Irish as their last winner of the race was in 1982. I don’t need to tell you that all my eggs are in one basket here. My whole meeting relies on Quartz De Thaix running well. I’m feeling the pressure now but everything I’ve predicted so far about this horse has come true so I just hope he finishes the job off and wins the race.

And if the Irish are looking to the Kim Muir to help pay the Guiness bar tab at the end of the day then they may be in a bit of trouble as Greasepaint in 1983 was their last winner. This race is a true shocker for the trends and I’ll be backing my own fancy in the race instead. The Pipe yard seem really keen on the chance of Junior in this race and it’s easy to see why. I’ll be joining in on their gamble for this race with an each way bet on Katchachurian as well.

I have a date with ‘The Beast’ of Newport this afternoon as I’m attending my audition for The Chase. I’ll let you know if they deem me photogenic enough to be unleashed on the television viewing public in tomorrow’s post.

I’ll be writing that post on the train on my way across to London for an afternoon of drinking, punting and merryment with my bestest mate Matt and his chums. This will mean I’m out of action until at least  Saturday night when I make the trip home.

Good luck whatever you’re backing today,
Gavin.

P.S. And of course I will be backing the Henry Cecil runner in the Charity race. I never thought I’d see a Cecil runner at the Cheltenham Festival but it’s happening today. Fantastic. Apparently the race is open to any amateur rider (licsensed or not) who can raise £5000 for charity. What an amazing opportunity to ride at the worlds biggest jump meeting. I might seriously consider putting on a pair of jodhpurs and having a crack at that next year!

The waiting is nearly over and the first race of the 2011 Cheltenham Festival is just hours away. To quote the Pointer Sisters…”I’m so excited and I just can’t hide it…”

I don’t think I’ve ever got to Cheltenham with so many ante-post vouchers still intact and it now looks like my banker of the meeting will be running in the right race. Venetia Williams took Quartz De Thaix out of the Centenary Handicap which leaves the way clear for a run in the Festival Plate. I’ve never been so confident of a horse being laid out for a race in my punting life and it’s really good to actually get it right (so far anyway). It’s my biggest ever ante-post bet and the only thing standing between me and the largest win of my career are 2 anxious days, 2m5f of Cheltenham countryside, 19 battle hardened chase handicappers and 14 of the toughest fences in the country. Gulp….

The most annoying thing about it all though is I’ll be attending my audition for The Chase at about the same time as Quartz De Thaix is running his heart out. I’ll be having words with ‘The Beast’ about that inconvenient bit of planning. Don’t these TV executives know the Cheltenham Festival is on? Checking the result will be the first thing I do as soon as it’s over with.

But that’s later on in the week and you probably want to know about today. For obvious reasons I can’t disclose the trends horses I’ll be backing today but I have backed / will be backing the following outsiders…….

Supreme Novice Hurdle (1.30pm)

According to the jockeys and trainers guide I gave away last month (click here if you missed it) the two horses least likely to win would be Dunraven Storm (as all 30 of Phillip Hobbs runners that finished 4th or worse last time out have been beaten) and Zaidpour (as all 8 of Willie Mullins’ winners had won 1 of their last 2 races).

I’m not interested in either of those two but I have backed Magens Star from the Tommy Stack yard at 33/1. I took a bit of a gamble last Friday that she would run in the Supreme Hurdle and not the Mares Only so I at least got that right. The way she has won her two races so far has been nothing short of impressive and she could be anything. We’ll find out later this afternoon but at big odds she’s definitely worth chancing.

The range of bookmaker concessions is amazing on this race and you simply have to take advantage of at least one of them. If you back your fancy in this race on Betfair you must be a) very confident of success or b) blinkered.

You can get 1/4 the odds the first 4 with Hills, Bet365 and Skybet. Paddy Power will refund your money if your horse loses and Cue Card wins. Boylesports will refund your money if your horse finishes 2nd regardless of what wins (they’re actually running this concession on the first 4 races). A number of firms are also refunding money if your horse falls in any of the Cheltenham races (Victor Chandler and Sporting Bet I think). Ladbrokes are still offering their free pen deal…..

MAGENS STAR (EW at 18/1 with Bet365….1/4 odds 1-2-3-4) or (EW at 16/1 with Paddy Power / Boylesports)

The Arkle (2.05pm)

I’ve nailed my colours to the mast in this race many times over the last month or so. I recommended backing Medermit at 14/1 and nothing I have seen since makes me want to jump ship now. It’s my best bet of the day.

Spinal Research Handicap (2.40pm)

This is a race where you either get a well fancied horse winning or a complete outsider. I’ll be hoping it’s the latter as I’ll be having an each way interest on Adams Island who has run some pretty decent races in defeat this season as well as winning a couple of races too. 5 lengths behind Wymott (fancied for the RSA Chase) and 2nd to Captain Chris (runs in the Arkle) in a Grade 2 at Kempton read very well as does his cosy 1 1/4 length win over Mostly Bob at Doncaster (that one went on to score easily off a handicap mark of 125 next time out).

ADAMS ISLAND (EW at 20/1 Victor Chandler. Money back if he falls)

Champion Hurdle (3.20pm)

(I can’t see any each way value in this race at all. Bygones Of Brid won’t be winning but that’s all I do know. I would have backed Binocular but now I think it’s a race to watch and savour.

Cross Country Handicap (4.00pm)

Not my cup of tea at all. Gary is adamant that A New Story is going to win again and he might be right but I’ll be backing Freneys Well each way at 25/1 based solely on his run last year. There was carnage at the bend into the home straight in the 2010 running and the selection was one of the worst sufferers. It put paid to any chance he had at the time which I personally think was one that would have seen him make the frame at the very least. I hope he runs as well again this year.

If Maljimar turns the corner in the lead, no matter how far clear he is, I’ll be laying him on Betfair. When racing at Cheltenham he doesn’t put a foot wrong for 99% of the race and then always seems to throw victory away. He did it when we had him as a trends selection at this meeting in 2009 and he’s done it at again Cheltenham many times since. Pricewise can keep that selection. I simply can’t have him.

FRENEYS WELL (EW at 25/1 Victor Chandler. Money back if he falls)

Mares Only Race (4.40pm)

After being shot down in flames last week for daring to suggest Quevega might be worth taking on I’ll just keep my mouth shut today and simply offer up Banjaxed Girl as the best value in the race at anything over 14/1.

BANJAXED GIRL (14/1 Bet365 or anything higher on Betfair)

Centenary Novice Chase (5.15pm)

The new conditions of this race (it’s now a 0-140 handicap) have completely scuppered the trends and it’s the one race I’m dreading today. I think we’re in for a real stats- buster of a result. I wasn’t happy to see Swing Bill and Lastoftheleaders declared as I had backed them for other races this week but at least Venetia had the good sense to leave out Quartz de Thaix. Gary’s best bet of the day is American Trilogy and I can see where he’s coming from with that selection. I’ll probably have a couple of quid on him and I know the missus will be backing it because she’s a massive Elvis fan (she backed in 2009 at 20/1 and hasn’t shut up about it since).

In such a tight handicap there are obviously loads in with a chance including the very well handicapped Divers from Ferdy Murphys yard. I expect that one to go very close but I’m hoping that Rougham will go closer. He’s taken his time to find his form over fences but that’s normally a good thing for these festival novice handicaps and he showed a good attitutude to win at Ascot last time out when getting the better of Osric. In an open race I’ll take him each way.

ROUGHAM (20/1 Each Way)

Good luck,
Gavin.

How can a weekend that started so well end so badly? Nicky-bloody-Henderson that’s how.

I took Dylan to his football match in the morning and saw him score 5 goals in Inter Penarth’s 7-0 win over the Dinas Ravens before dropping him and the missus off at Grandma’s. This monthly ritual allows me the house to myself so I can watch the racing in peace (no Spongebob, Jeremy Kyle, MTV or Wii Fifa11 on my TV!) and visit the casino in the evening for a game of Poker. The afternoon went well with wins for Dunelight, Lowther, Kempski and my favourite racehorse Mamlook. There were of course some losers as well (Old Way, Eradicate, Brunswick Gold) but I finished the afternoon a couple of hundred pounds better off than I had started it. A 6-0 win for Peterborough despite missing two penalties meant we had managed to keep a clean sheet for 3 games in a row (must be a club record) and more importantly we climbed above Bournemouth in the table after their 3-1 loss to Southampton. Matt and I have a bet every year on who finishes higher up in the table and after trailing for most of the Season we’re now in full stride and sitting pretty with a game in hand to boot. Fantastic, I can almost smell the sweet scent of victory (and Matt’s money). The casino went well also as I finished 3rd in the Poker for a £240 payout and won £130 on the slots during the poker tournament break. By the time I got to bed in the small hours of Sunday morning I was feeling very happy indeed…..

Oh what a difference 8 hours can make.

I was awakened from my slumber by the pinging of my mobile phone and a text message from my brother. Apparently, Binocular has been withdrawn from the Champion Hurdle as he has failed a drugs test. What? Just like that. No warning. No mention of a problem. No words of caution to ante-post punters. Nope. Nothing. The man writes a column in the Racing Post every Saturday for Pete’s sake. Surely he must have thought it newsworthy to mention that the most high profile horse in his stable, not to mention the ante-post favourite for the Champion Hurdle, has been under medication for the last 2 weeks because of an allergy complaint. Isn’t that why the Racing Post pay him to write a column in their paper? So we know what’s happening in his stable. Obviously not. He thinks we’re more interested in migrating birds returning for the Spring or what he’s had for breakfast. Given the choice I’d rather know that Binocular won’t be running in the Champion Hurdle over how many pairs of curlews roam around Seven Barrows. It’s made my blood boil. Grrrrrrrrrrr…..

I hope he didn’t do it out of revenge for me highlighting all those horses of his that can’t win at Cheltenham in Friday’s blog post.

What it does mean is that I have now lost money ante-post, tipped a non-runner and have no idea which horse will win the Champion Hurdle. I know it won’t be Bygones Of Brid or Clerks Choice but that’s as far as I’ve got.

———–

Tipping competition.

The Telegraph are running a free to enter Cheltenham Tipping Competition this week with £5000 in prizemoney up for grabs. Matt and I have set up a joint mini-league which you can also enter to see who is the King of the Tipsters between our two blogs.

You enter here http://fantasyracing.telegraph.co.uk/select-team

and once you have your Jockeys and Trainers sorted out you can enter the geegeez / nag3 mini league by clicking the ‘join a league’ button.

The details you’ll need for this are;

Name: Geegeez Nag3 SuperLeague

PIN: 8001003

As I said, it’s free to play, and it should be good fun. Matt’s also generously putting up a 6 DVD box set of racing champions as a prize for the winner of our super league.

Good luck if you decide to enter,
Gavin.

P.S. The full version for the 2011 Festival Trends Guide will be available from 2pm tomorrow (Monday 14th March) so if you want to get involved with the Number 1 Trends Service in Britain then simply sign-up below….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

or read about our service, see some examples and check all our results from last year here….

http://festivaltrends.co.uk/

According to the stats, why your fancy can’t win at Cheltenham……

SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE

Nicky Henderson last won this race in 1992. He’s had 13 runners without success in the last 11 years alone.
It’s not looking good for Gibb River, Spirit Son or Sprinter Sacre

THE ARKLE

That man again. Nicky Henderson has not won a Chase race at the Festival since 2006.
Finians Rainbow in the Arkle anyone?

SPINAL RESEARCH HANDICAP

No winner has carried more than 11-00 to victory since before 1999.
The favourite Great Endeavour is set to carry 11-07

No 11yo or over has even made the frame in this race in the last 11 years.
Last years winner Chief Dan George is an 11yo set to carry 11-07.

CHAMPION HURDLE

In the Champion Hurdle, only 1 of the last 25 winners had not raced that Calendar year. Since 1985 the number of days between the winners last run and the Champion Hurdle reads: 15-38-11-22-19-11-24-78-10-19-50-31-51-51-51-19-38-31-31-44-45-24-24-38
Still fancy Menorah who last ran 94 days ago?

Only 1 winner of the Christmas Hurdle has won the Champion Hurdle in the same Season since 1983/84. That was Kribensis in 1989/90 and 19 others have tried and failed.
This years Christmas Hurdle winner? Binocular

Montjeu has never sired a winner of a Cheltenham Festival race despite having had 44 runners.
The bad news? Hurricane Fly is a son of the enigmatic French racehorse.

CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP

UK trained runners are 0 winners from 50 runners in this race. Paul Nicholls is 0-12. In the last 10 years at the Festival (more than 260 races) only 6 horses won at the meeting having fallen or unseated rider on their previous start.  The last 21 winners over this specialist course had previously contested a cross country race.
Gullible Gordon must be the lay of the century….

NH CHASE

Like Montjeu another high profile sire yet to get off the mark at Cheltenham is Anshan who has seen all 25 of his progeny beaten.
Quantitativeeasing will be trying his best to change that stat

NIM NOVICE HURDLE

In the last 37 years only one winner of this race has been aged 7 or older.
Well supported outsider, and unbeaten over hurdles, Gagewell Flyer is 7yo

Once again we find Nicky Henderson in the trainer stats. Throughout his illustrious training career he’s never had the winner of this race despite sending out 21 horses for the contest. He’s only had 2 finish in the top 10 since 1990!
Bobs Worth doesn’t look quite so good now

RSA CHASE

Only one winner of the prestigous Reynoldstown Chase has followed up here since 1973!
It’s not looking good for another of Nicky Hendersons runners as Master Of The Hall won this Seasons Reynoldstown.

CHAMPION CHASE

No Champion Chase winner had run more than 4 times in the current Season since 1995.
Golden Silver has run 6 times already since early November.

CORAL CUP

There has only been 1 outright favourite to have won in the races 17 year history. Only 2 favourites have made the frame in the last decade.
Call The Police? More like call the Samaritans as another favourite bites the dust.

FRED WINTER HANDICAP

All 6 winners of this race were by Group 1 winning sires.
I promise I’m not picking on him but Nicky Henderson’s well fancied Titan De Sarti is sired by Kapgarde who was an OK chaser and never ran on the flat.

THE BUMPER

All 18 winners of the Bumper were sired by 18 different horses.
The 18? 1992 MONTELIMAR 1993 WHERE TO DANCE 1994 STRONG GALE 1995 ACCORDION 1996 WELSH TERM 1997 FLORIDA SON 1998 GLACIAL STORM 1999 MISTER LORD 2000 RIVER FALLS 2002 BROKEN HEARTED 2003 STANDIFORD 2004 FLEMENSFIRTH 2005 OVERBURY 2006 SHERNAZAR 2007 FASLIYEV 2008 BOB BACK 2009 PRESENTING 2010 KINGS THEATRE

Which if you believe in these kind of stats isn’t a good omen for backers of current favourite Knight Pass or Dark Glacier, Grab The Glory & Master Murphy

RYANAIR CHASE

Every horse to have made the frame in this race was either French or Irish Bred.
It’s a good job Riverside Theatre won’t be running as being British Bred he would have been another Henderson Bismarck. As it is Gauvain will be the one attempting to spoil the French/Irish party.

11 of the 12 horses to have finished 1st or 2nd in this race had won at Cheltenham previously.
Not many in the field have won over the course and that includes well fancied Kalahari King

WORLD HURDLE

Quite simply, the Irish haven’t won this race since 1995. They’ve had 31 attempts in the last 11 years with just 9 placed horses to show for it.
It looks likes Mourad, Fiveforthree and Powerstation will be playing for place money only.

FESTIVAL PLATE

There has only been 1 winning favourite in the last 29 years.
Yet another Henderson horse looks doomed, Aigle D’Or. Poor old Nicky, things aren’t looking good.

They’re not looking good for Paul Nicholls in this race either as he’s had just 2 placed horses from 21 attempts in the last 11 years.
It might be worth avoiding Fistral Beach

THE KIM MUIR

The Kim Muir Handicap features amateur riders on all runners. It may be worth noting than 5 of the last 6 renewals have gone to non-claiming amateurs.

The Irish last won this race in 1983.
The novice Prince Erik had better find an alternative engagement at the meeting.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

Over the last 11 years the Irish record in the race is 1 winner from 66 runners. Fillies have won just once since 1997 from 27 runners.
The Irish filly Unaccompanied isn’t for me.

There has been no once raced winner for the last 26 years and all of the last 11 winners of the Triumph Hurdle had made their debut by 10th January.
Strike a line through Zarkander

COUNTY HURDLE

Master Tern in 2000 was the last winner of the County Hurdle to have won at Cheltenham previously.
Oh no, not another Henderson favourite. Yep, Aegean Dawn is a previous course winner. It’s also worth noting that none of the trainers previous 20 runners have finished in the first three.

You can also forget front runners in this race as just the 1 has made the frame in the last 11 years.

ALBERT BARTLETT

Of the 18 win and placed horses in this race’s history 15 of them were Irish or French Bred and 15 of them finished in the top 2 last time out.
The odds are against Habbie Simpson improving on his recent course 3rd place finish.

THE GOLD CUP

Cool Dawn in 1998 was the last winning 10yo. The last horse to win the Gold Cup aged over 10 was 40 years ago!

But…..Imperial Commander’s form figures when running in Chase races at Cheltenham reads 114111. Denman’s career record at Cheltenham is 1211122. Midnight Chase’s is 231111 and Kauto Star is F121F.

Somethings got to give and it’s probably going to be my brain. No race at the Festival is giving me more problems than this one.

THE FOXHUNTERS

No horse has successfully defended their crown for 21 years. Since 1999 those trying to achieve this feat finished P36204.
Last years winner was Baby Run

BUT IT’S NOT ALL BAD NEWS……..

because if you’ve had a bad week and you’re looking to the Grand Annual as the get out stakes then I might just be able to help you. A staggering 9 of the last 10 Grand Annual winners came from a very narrow ratings band of 129-134, carried 10-11 or less, finished in the top 3 on at least one of their last two starts and had run less than 13 times over fences.

Arthur Moore’s 7 runners in the race have yeilded 2 winners and a place. It all looks good for LASTOFTHELEADERS (20/1 but make sure you back with a firm giving NON RUNNER-NO BET!)

Good luck,
Gavin.

As promised yesterday I’ve prodded Gary out of his Mid Winter hibernation to see if he can add a different angle to the Cheltenham Festival. Here are his thoughts at this stage…..

GARY’S 3 BEST BETS FOR CHELTENHAM

Cue Card (Supreme Novices Hurdle ). The best horse in the race on the form book looks to have all the right credentials for this race and lost nothing in defeat when outbattled by Menorah last time out. If he was trained by Nicholls, Henderson or Mullins he would be around the even money mark and that is a true reflection of his chance in my opinion.

Time For Rupert (RSA Chase) Another whose form is vastly superior to his opposition. His 2nd to Big Bucks in last Seasons World Hurdle is out of the top drawer and his two chase wins have been scintilating.  The form took a major boost when Quinz won last weekends Racing Post Trophy and it’s difficult to find a chink in his armour.

Big Bucks (World Hurdle) The market makes this a two horse race but there is an awful lot of hype around the 2nd fav whereas Big Bucks has been there and done it, twice in fact, and odds against is a massive price. He’s seen off all challengers for the past 2 seasons and I expect him to see off this one too. Beyond the front two in the betting is Fiveforthree who is a previous winner at the Festival and if staying the trip makes more appeal than Grand Crus.

GARY’S 3 BEST OUTSIDERS FOR CHELTENHAM

A New Story (Glenfarcas Cross Country). This 13yo has had a very similar campaign to last year en route to winning this race. He has a good record in this race and proved that despite his advancing years he still holds a lot of speed when running 3rd in a 2m 3f handicap hurdle at Naas on Sunday. It’s no coincindence that that was the very same race he ran in last year as his pre-Cheltenham run.

Kumbeschwar (Fred Winter novice handicap hurdle). He has had the mandatory 3 runs over hurdles in order to get his handicap mark although he did win his first run at Sandown. He followed that up with a defeat at the hands of Houblon des Obeaux and Third Intention at Haydock but that was no disgrace as both are high up in the Triumph Hurdle betting. Then last Saturday he finished 3rd to the impressive debutant Zarkandar and Molotof to prove he has form with the very best of the Juvenile hurdlers. A rating of 133 seems fair given that Molotof has been raised to a new mark of 143. He is a top priced 25/1 with Victor Chandler.

Oiseau de Nuit (Grand Annual). He has all that I look for in a Grand Annual contender. Last year I went into the meeting with Pigeon Island as my best bet and Oiseau de Nuit is a similar strong fancy this year. He stays 20f , jumps well, has just two unseated riders in 20 chase races, he’s been in the first 3 on 12 of his 20 races but best of all he comes late off a fast pace and that is guaranteed here. His last run was behind French Opera in the Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury where he was a long way behind for most of the race then ran on from the Cross Fence to be a 13 length 3rd behind a horse rated 17lb superior. Hopefully French Opera will again run here instead of the Queen Mother as that will keep the weights down. Oiseau de Nuit did run in this race last year and was sent off the 8/1 2nd fav where he led from the 8th to the 3rd last before weakening. Hopefully the jockey will have learnt from that that this is a HOLD UP HORSE! Take the 25/1 and end Cheltenham on a high….

 GARY’Ss 3 ‘WOULDN’T TOUCH IT WITH A BARGEPOLE’ LAYS FOR CHELTENHAM

Long Run (Gold Cup). After 25 years of being interested in racing I still have my number one golden rule: If the horse doesnt act on the track - don’t back it. It can’t win. Well, perhaps Desert Orchid managed to do it when he won the Gold Cup and beat Yahoo(don’t whatever you do mention that to Gavin. He’s probably the only person in racing who hates Desert Orchid) but there have been few to have done it before or after the magnificent grey. In Long Runs 5 runs in Britain he has been mightily impressive in his 3 wins in the Feltham at Kempton, the Kingmaker at Warwick and then the King George at Kempton. His 2 defeats have both come at Cheltenham. You don’t get any flatter tracks than Kempton and Warwick only has the one hill which is a big contrast to the undulations of Cheltenham. Admittedly there are questions over all the major contenders but at least they have all got winning Cheltenham festival form and thats the biggest positive you can get.

Grand Crus (World Hurdle). As impressive as he has been in winning a couple of handicaps and then a Grade 2 last time, is he really that close to beating the mighty Big Bucks? Not in my opinion he’s not. The race has no strength in depth and although he may well be the best of the opposition until he has proven it at the top level I can’t take 2/1. I predict he will be a 7/2 shot on the day and that’s a much more realistic price of him turning over the meetings banker bet.  

Binocular (Champion Hurdle). Again this doesn’t represent any kind of value. His form this season at best has been average and at worst disappointing. He was well and truly put in his place by Peddlers Cross in the re-arranged Fighting Fifth at Newbury and his last run defeating Ruthenoise was almost embarassing. In a field where you have Menorah, Peddlers Cross, Hurricane Fly, Oscar Whiskey, Dunguib, Mille Chiefe and Kyber Kim there has to be something amongst them that can defeat the Champ. Come the off I reckon he’ll be trading nearer the 6/1 mark but even then he won’t be getting any of my money.

There you have it. It looks like we’re singing from the same hymn sheet in our strong fancies but trends readers will know it’s not good news with regard to a couple of his ‘lay’ bets. I’m off now to check out this Oiseau De Nuit……

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 Festival Trends Guide

The main Guide is now available although the selections and ratings can’t be added until Monday when the declarations are made. It’s currently 108 pages long, so will be roughly 135 pages when completed, and full of all the trends, stats and race trial analysis you need to beat the bookies.

I published my 4 for the Handicaps sheet to members last week and a couple have seen sustained support. In fact one of them has been the subject of a full scale gamble that has seen his price smashed from 33/1 into as short as 12/1. A lot of people are now eagerly awaiting the Wednesday of the meeting and it’s not to see Big Zeb win the Queen Mother. I know I am.

With my Ante-post Guide also tipping  a current 3/1 favourite at odds of 14/1 we have to be very confident that we’re on the right lines with our selections. 

The price is just £24.95 for all the Cheltenham Guides including those ante-post horses. PLUS as an extra bonus if you subscribe before Saturday you can have the Imperial Cup Trends Guide thrown in as well.

Sign-up is here: http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

For today’s post I’m going to take off my stats hat and put it to one side to bring you my idea of the best, and worst, bets for the Cheltenham Festival. That’s to say, if I wasn’t so caught up in trends, facts and statistics these are the horses I would be backing and laying…..

MY TOP 3 BETS FOR CHELTENHAM

CUE CARD - SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE
The stats are against him but from what I’ve seen so far I don’t care! He’s progressed very nicely in all three of his runs over hurdles and his 4 1/2 length second to Menorah reads very well in the context of this race. It’s the right decision to come here instead of the Champion Hurdle and when they win the Supreme by 10 lengths they can spend the Summer dreaming of the big one next year.

Obviously we need Non Runner No Bet but some firms are also offering this and Best Odds Guaranteed. Happy days!

BIG ZEB - QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Forget his run last time out when beaten by Golden Silver as it probably came a bit too soon for him. Looking through his form it’s clear that he needs about 6 weeks rest between his races to be seen at his best. His last three defeats have all come when trying to race with a shorter break and his form figures for 2 mile Chase races when having a 6 week+ break reads an impressive 111111. Sorry, I know I said no stats but I think it’s a useful thing to know about the horse. His jumpings not a problem anymore, his form is as good as it gets and having not run since the end of January I’m confident he’ll retain his crown next week.

TIME FOR RUPERT - RSA CHASE
 The Irish haven’t got anything that can win this (Mikael De Haguenet? I don’t think so), a lot of his rivals have now fallen by the wayside (Hells Bay) and the rest will probably run in the new Jewson Novice Chase (Quel Esprit, Wishful Thinking) which leaves Time For Rupert looking the best bet of Cheltenham week. There’s nothing in the field that could match him over hurdles and it will be the same story over fences. They should have had a crack at the Gold Cup but there’s always next year and it gives us a fantastic bet at 9/4.

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MY TOP 3 EACH WAY BETS FOR CHELTENHAM

QUARTZ DE THAIX, Quartz De Thaix and Quartz De Thaix. - HANDICAP CHASE
You must be sick of me going on about this one but I can’t tell you just how much I fancy it. It’s looking more and more likely by the day that I’ve called it right and after his facile win at Newton Abbot this afternoon I’m even more confident. Even with a 5lb penalty from todays race he must be the best part of a stone well in on his chase rating. I’ve had a stack of money on him for the Festival Plate and my only worry is that Venetia Williams runs him in the Centenary Novice Handicap instead. Whichever race he runs in at Cheltenham I’ll be backing him again and again. I haven’t been this excited about an ante-post bet since Oath won the Derby…

Back him at 20/1 for either Centenary Novices Handicap (Tuesday) or Festival Plate (Thursday) but make sure you get Non Runner - No Bet!!!!

FRENEYS WELL - CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
It’s not a race I’m that keen on but I can’t help thinking this one looks well over-priced at around 25/1. He was travelling beautifully and all set to finish in the frame, at the very least, in last years renewal when disaster struck coming around the bend into the home straight. He was really badly hampered and lost all momentum but still finished 6th beaten just 8 lengths. He’s run around these fences plenty of times before and looks very nicely handicapped on 10-09. Being Irish, trained by Enda Bolger and owned by JP McManus can’t hurt either!

25/1 at Hills but they’re yet to go NR-No Bet
or  20/1 Blue Square with Non Runner - No Bet

SHOREACRES - GRAND ANNUAL

This is another horse who I was really keen on for last years Festival but ended up doing my money when he missed the race due to injury in his prep race.  Brendan Powell’s played it safe this season and has brought him back for just one race before going for the Grand Annual. He won that contest by beating a Paul Nicholls odds on favourite by 28 lengths in the style of a very decent horse. I remember writing last year that he has twice been to the Festival before where he ran 4th in the Bumper behind Cousin Vinny and 7th in the Supreme Novices behind Go Native and this will be his ‘easiest‘ assignment yet. A case of third time lucky….

16/1 at William Hill again yet to go NR/No Bet
or 14/1 Bet365 with Non Runner - No Bet

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MY WORST 3 ,‘WOULDN’T TOUCH WITH A BARGEPOLE’ BETS FOR CHELTENHAM

GRANDOUET - TRIUMPH HURDLE
If ever there was a horse at the front of the market due simply to it’s connections then it’s this one. If Nicky Henderson wasn’t the trainer then he’d be a 12/1+ shot on what he’s achieved so far on the track. Sam Winner absolutely thrashed him at Cheltenham last year and even allowing for the 8lb he gave him he has a lot of work to do to reverse that form. Not for me thanks…

MASTER MINDED - QUEEN MOTHER
I just can’t have him at around 5/2 and I’d much rather lay at those odds that back him. The 2 mile chase scene is full of promising youngsters and top class old hands and now Big Zeb has got his jumping together I’d be surprised if Master Minded ever regained his 2 mile chasers crown. In fact I can even see him finishing out of the frame with a 1-2-3 of Big Zeb, Somersby and Sizing Europe. Lay for a place……

After the way he ran last year I was going to put up Tranquil Sea in the Ryanair as my third choice but I’m going instead with what most people consider the banker of the meeting….

QUEVEGA - MARES ONLY
Firstly I’d like to make it clear that with this one I’m not saying she can’t win. I’m not that stupid (Oh yes you are! I hear you cry). She is after all head and shoulders above the rest of ratings and she’s won the race twice before but I don’t think she’s worth chancing at even money and she won’t be carrying any of my money. This is a stronger race than last year with a couple of exciting novices from the smaller stables coming through the ranks and she again has to cope with coming into the race not having run for a considerable time. I’d much rather back one of the others each way at a big price than bet a mare without a recent run in a Graded race at the Cheltenham Festival. Last years 2nd Caroles Legacy each way at 20/1 is much more fun…….

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My brother’s been a little quiet recently, I think he’s still licking his wounds from a bad year backing sprint handicappers, but for those of you who remember his exploits at around this time last year when he tipped numerous massive priced winners (33/1, 50/1 and 66/1) you may be glad to know he’ll be giving his best bets for Cheltenham in tomorrows post. So stay tuned….

Good luck,
Gavin.

It seems that Bet365 have stirred the other online bookmakers into action and now numerous firms are offering the excellent Non Runner-No Bet concession for all Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post bets. It’s now time for all of you Betfair die-hards to realise that there is life beyond the great exchange and that there are plenty of reasons to bet with a ‘traditional’ bookie.

Betfair does NOT always offer the best price and to prove it I’ve spent the morning adding a brand new feature to the website. You can check it out by clicking on the CHELTENHAM 2011 tab on the left hand menu. This will bring up all 4 days of the Festival and give you the best odds currently available for EVERY race due to be run and which firm is offering them. As you’ll see, Betfair isn’t always the best place to go. (More bookmakers will be added to the list over the next few days.)

Of course the real usefulness of this feature is that you can now see which firm is best price on your fancy. I hope you can put it to good use.

Bigger odds and Non Runner / No Bet concessions are just the start because you can also get all of these amazing offers for Cheltenham from your online bookmaker……

BOYLESPORTS: If your horse finishes 2nd in any of the first 4 races on the Tuesday they’ll refund your stake up to £250. (Singles only. Win part of bet only). They are also offering Best Odds Guaranteed on all Cheltenham markets.

PADDY POWER: If you bet a horse in the Supreme Novices Hurdle that loses and Cue Card wins they’ll give you your money back up to £200 (Singles Only. Win part of bet only)

STAN JAMES: They’ve decided to Boost the ante-post prices of certain horses each day on the run up to Cheltenham. The price boost depends on how close the Festival is. As there are 11 days to go they’ve boosted the price of 4 horses today to 11/1 (can you see what they’ve done there?). Obviously this only helps if they boost a horse that you fancy but it’s still worth checking out daily. The four horses boosted today are Gallant Nuit (Kim Muir), Sam Winner (Triumph), Dante Storm (Albert Bartlett) and Join Together (Foxhunters)

BET365: They were the first to go NR-NB and they also go Best Odds Guaranteed on all their Cheltenham markets. Ante-post betting has never been less treacherous.

SPORTINGBET: If your horse falls/Unseats or is Brought Down in any Cheltenham Festival race you will get a refund up to £25 of your stake. Unlimited refund for the 4 Championship races. (Day of the race bets only. Not Antepost)

VICTOR CHANDLER: Has a similar offer to Sportingbet (refund for fallers etc) but will refund you up to £50 per race. Refund is in the form of a free bet on the following days racing. For anyone who likes doing multiples: Victor is also going to give you a free bet on the following days racing to your original stake if you do a Yankee or SuperYankee and you only manage 1 winner. (Online and phone accounts only)

LADBROKES: Free small blue pen with every visit to one of their high street betting shops (also available from Argos). Not guaranteed to work. Limit one per customer.

That’s all I can find so far but as I find more I’ll pass them on to you.
Or, if anyone else knows of another bookmaker offer then please leave a comment to share it with everyone else.

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Pertemps Hurdle

One interesting thing to note about the race this year is that there are now 16 qualifiers for the final in 2010-2011 compared to just 8 in 2009/2010. Unfortunately in the shake-up they also removed the Newbury qualifier, which used to be a good guide to the final, and added 4 French heats for some reason. Maybe the sponsors Pertemps fancied a weekend in the South of France?

And the key qualifier this year? I have a feeling it will be the Sandown one which was due to take place last December but didn’t. It was always going to be abandoned because of the weather we were having at the time which meant that a lot of clued up trainers entered their horses knowing they would get an automatic entry to the final without having to reveal their hand in a qualifier. Wily old Philip Hobbs took full advantage of the fact and entered 20 odd horses and the stable cat just to make sure!

But on the whole the form of the qualifiers means very little with only final winner Ballifitz actually winning one in the last 12 years. This is the one they all want to win and they’re not going to ruin their chances of success by taking one of the qualifiers.

So forget those that won a qualifier and also strike a line through any 5yo as there’s only been 1 such winner in the last 37 years. Horses rated over 150 definitely don’t win this (only 1 place since 1997) and those over 142 have really struggled with just 1 such winner since 1999. Nicky Henderson is a trainer to be wary of in this race as only 3 of his 21 career runners have even finished in the top 10! 

So who does win this race? Well the Irish do (5 out of the last 18 races), those aged 7 and over do (last 5 and 6 of last 7 renewals), Jonjo O’Neill does, so does JP McManus (3 wins apiece) and outsiders certainly do (last 9 winners - 20/1, 6/1, 50/1, 10/1,50/1, 14/1, 18/1, 18/1 & 16/1). Oh, and add to that list experienced handicappers because all of the last 11 winners had run at least 6 times and only 1 winner since 1983 had not contested a handicap prior to winning this race.

It’s an absolute minefield to negotiate but I’m going to have a stab with two Donald McCain horses. The first one ran 3rd in the race last year when with Alan King and had a certain Cross Kennon 1 1/2 lengths back in 4th receiving 1lb. Chamirey has been novice chasing this season with varying degrees of success but it has meant his hurdle rating remains pretty much unchanged and just 2lb more than it was in this race last year. He wouldn’t be the first horse to come back from a fencing career to take this.

The other is the exposed looking Son Of Flicka who has been running very consistently in some good class handicap hurdles including on his last run where he ran second to Quartz De Thaix at Aintree. He’s not run at the Festival before but did run 3rd in a big field handicap at the course last October and this former decent novice might give us a good run for our money at a decent price.

Of course they both have numerous entries for the meeting but with more and more firms giving us the NR-NB option there’s no excuse for not getting our money back if either or both don’t run.

Selections: Son Of Flicka and Chamirey (both available 25/1 top price with NR-NB)

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’ve come back from Vegas a little poorer than I went but thanks to a tiny bit of skill, a smattering of good fortune and an awful lot of drunken American tourists I was able to win at the poker tables on all but 1 of my 9 days on holiday and just about cover my losses on everything else - food, tips, drink, tips, slots, roulette, tips, blackjack, 3 card poker etc.

If you’ve ever been to Vegas then you’ll know that tipping is a way of life out there but it’s gone beyond a joke now. Open a cab door for you, there’s a dollar, drive you the long way round to your hotel without saying a word, tip please, serve me a coffee, dollar, store your luggage, dollar a bag please, spin you a winning number on the roulette, tip please (like a croupier has anything to do with that!), deal you a winning hand at blackjack, tip please (ditto), you won that hand of poker, tip please (well in poker someone has to win every hand!), cash your chips in at the cashiers desk, tip please…..the list goes on and on and they’re all out to get your money. They’re not even shy about doing it either. It’s got so bad now that croupiers are actually asking for tips before they spin the roulette wheel…. ‘don’t forget your dealers!’ Nothing makes me forget you more mate…..

I played in numerous poker tournaments where there was a ‘dealer appreciation’ option which gave you more chips to start with but not more prizemoney. Then when you make the money in the tournament they expect another tip out of your winnings despite you having contributed to their wages already. Even eating in Vegas has got out of hand. The buffets used to be a really good way of eating decent food at a reasonable price but not any more. Most on the strip are now over $20 a person and at weekends they’ve come up with a new scam where they add an extra $5 onto the charge and call it a champagne brunch. I’m no wine expert but that’s not champagne. If you’re tea-total don’t even think about asking for a reduction. You’ve got no chance. Champagne Brunch at the Wynn is $45 per person…..

It didn’t end there as the hotel I stayed in now collects a compulsory resort fee when you check-in of $10 a day to use the pool (closed), the gym (never been in one on a holiday in my life while my 70yo dad and 65yo mother-in-law certainly weren’t rushing to use it every morning before breakfast) and to have the room cleaned and the bathroom toiletries renewed (isn’t that what you pay a hotel for anyway?). To top it all off I was then charged a $ a day for the phone which I didn’t use once while I was there (hasn’t everyone got mobiles now?). For the first time in my life I was glad to get out of the town and back home. Sorry, rant over!

Thanks to the poker though it all means that my bankroll is still pretty much intact and ready to take on the bookies at Cheltenham. Bring it on….

Over the last couple of weeks my ante-post portfolio is beginning to look better by the day after successes for Kempes, Medermit, Moose Moran and Cross Kennon in their respective Cheltenham prep races. In fact a list of all the horses I’ve tipped ante-post on this blog for Cheltenham makes for pretty nice reading….

THE GOOD

Gold Cup: Kempes at 66/1 (now down to around 14/1)
Arkle: Medermit at 14/1 (now 4/1 favourite)
Ryanair: Kalahari King at 16/1 (9/1 is the best price)
World Hurdle: Cross Kennon at 150/1 (still big at 50’s but 150’s is looking massive now!)
Queen Mother: Sizing Europe at 18/1 (confirmed runner and now a 14/1 hope)

THE BAD

Triumph Hurdle: Moose Moran at 20/1 (now a 25/1 shot but did win last time out)
Triumph Hurdle: Local Hero at 20/1 (now 33/1 and up against it although the ground was too heavy for him last time out)

THE UGLY

Champion Hurdle: Starluck at 66/1 (still 66/1 but more likely to go for the Arkle. I didn’t see that coming!)

A lot can happen between now and 15th March and no amount of rubbing rabbits foots, avoiding walking under ladders or touching wood is going to stop plenty of fancied horses falling by the wayside in that time but what we can now do is back our Ante-Post horses safe in the knowledge that we’ll get our money back if they don’t run.

How so? Bet365 have broken ranks and are the first firm to offer the NR-No Bet concession on all races at the Festival. So if you back a non-runner between now and Cheltenham and don’t get your money back then you’ve only got yourself to blame.

You can sign up for an account with them here >>>BET365 and take advantage of their new customer bonus of up to £200 in FREE bets.

Okay, so now we know we won’t lose out on non-starters what should we back?

Since the weights have now been published for the handicaps I thought I’d take a look at a few of those races to add some more outsiders to the ante-post portfolio….. 

Let’s begin today with the Coral Cup, a fiendishly difficult handicap hurdle that takes a lot of sorting out. The first thing I like to do when assessing a race this far in advance is see which trainers have a good (or bad) record in the race and then take a look at their entries to see if they’re plotting anything. In the Coral Cup Tony Martin has only had 3 runners in the race since 1999 but has managed a winner and a place. Obviously, anything he runs is worth noting as are the Phillip Hobbs runners as he has won the race twice and placed twice in the last 11 Festivals. On the other hand, Nigel Twiston-Davies has sent 9 runners for the race but all have finished out of the frame while Noel Meade has done only slightly better with just 1 place from 10 runners. Nicky Henderson has had 1 winner (Spirit River last year) and 1 place but at the cost of 21 runners so is another who can be taken on. Worth noting also are JP McManus owned runners as he likes nothing better than pulling off a coup in these Cheltenham Handicaps and the Coral Cup has been one of his happiest hunting grounds. 

Other things to take into account are that since 1999 only one horse aged over 7 has been able to win with just 7 similarly aged runners making the frame (first 4). You also need a horse that is rated 144 or less and has won already this season, preferably last time out.  Don’t worry if your fancy hasn’t been on the track for a while as plenty of trainers now keep their horses at home to protect what they consider an attractive handicap mark ready for a big gamble in this lucrative handicap. Recent winners Skys The Limit, Naiad Du Misselot and Ninetieth Minute had all been rested for 80 days and upwards since their last run.

But the biggest problem we have is that just about every horse in the race has entries for at least one other race at the Festival so we can’t be sure that our selection will even run. By backing with Bet365 though we can at least ensure we get our money back if they run elsewhere.

So where does all this lead us? Well, the one horse who sticks out like a sore thumb is the Phillip Hobbs trained / JP McManus owned 2010 Imperial Cup winner Qaspal but the bookies aren’t taking any chances with this one as he’s just 12/1 despite not having run for nearly a year. I’d still rather back that one over Get Me Out Of Here at the same price as he’s been running like a pig all season and it will take a lot of Jonjo’s magic to bring him back to the kind of form he was in at this time last year. Another JP McManus runner to the fore in the betting is Silverhand who was badly hampered in this race last year when seeming to be going strongly but after 3 easy wins in small fields this season his handicap mark looks to have been blown and Noel Meades record in the race isn’t the best. Wouldn’t it be great if the JP McManus owned Straw Bear could turn back the years and win this race for him? I’d love to see that but unfortunately he’s now 10yo and his best days are well behind him. Despite racing off 10-02 it would take a real optimist to back him even at 50/1. Still I might just have a couple of pounds ew just in case

Tony Martin has a few runners entered but nothing strikes me as being especially laid out for the race and with the bookies happy to offer his runners at 20/1 or higher I don’t think there’s anything worth backing of his.

A couple that do seem to fit the bill are Donald McCain’s Son Of Flicka who has been off the track for 115 days after having a busy time of it during the Summer jump season. His last two runs at Cheltenham and Aintree were pretty decent off relatively big weights and he looks to have been put away with the Festivals in mind. His rating of 140, although falling into the right ratings band, does look a little harsh and he’ll need to produce a career best effort to win this competitive race. Another is the Paul Nicholls trained novice King Of the Night who has won two novice hurdles this Winter either side of being outclassed by Cue Card in a Grade 2 race. He ticks all the boxes but for what he has acheived does look harshly treated on a rating of 138 .

But I’m going to back the Irish trained Ballyadam Brook who ran well in 3rd behind Cue Card in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Cheltenham in November and hasn’t been seen since. He came into that race in good form having finished 2nd in a Grade 3 on the back of running up a winning sequence of 4 during last Summer. The trainer has entered him in three races at the Festival but this is his only handicap entry with the other two being Grade 1 Novice events. He’s a top priced 33/1 and has to be worth a little each way bet.

 The other one I’m going to suggest betting doesn’t fit the trends profile of previous winners but is a horse I don’t think we’ve seen the best of yet. He has plenty of other options at the meeting but with a nr-no bet proviso we can afford to take a chance on him running here at big odds. Sure Josie Sure was a horse I had in my 10 to follow at the start of the season but after running well for a long way in the ultra competitive Greatwood hurdle he disappointed next time out when favourite for a conditional jockeys race. He’s been given a long rest since then which seems to suggest he wasn’t quite right that day and I’m willing to give him another chance to show the kind of form he was in at the end of last season.

Suggestions: Ballyadam Brook (33/1 with bet365 NR-NO BET) and Sure Josie Sure (33/1 with bet365 NR-NO BET or 50/1 Paddy Power all in run or not)

In tomorrow’s post I’ll try and work out the near-impossible Pertemps Hurdle Final.

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Good luck,
Gavin.