I’m off for a 10 day break in Vegas with the family (missus, son, dad and mother in law) from tomorrow so things will probably be a bit quiet on the blog front until I get back. 10 days of playing poker, eating / drinking too much and enjoying some warmish weather sounds like bliss to me and beats selling calendars any day of the week! If I have any big wins I’ll be sure to let you all know.

Thanks to the wonders of modern technology and extortionate hotel Wi-fi costs the TrainerTrackStats selections will be available as normal while I’m away and next Saturday’s Festival Trends Guide for the Racing Post Chase will be ready as soon as the declarations are made. The Guide for tomorrow’s Totesport hurdle will remain as per last week but unfortunately I think the ground has now gone against our selection. Where I was extremely confident last week I now remain only hopeful although he does now have less horses to beat. Finding out the result will be the first thing I do when I touch down at McCarron Airport. I reckon the first person to invent a wi-fi connection on an aeroplane should get some sort of Nobel Science award as checking results and playing online poker sure would make a 10 hour flight go pretty quickly. I’d happily pay over the odds for that service!

Those of you still following the AW Jockeys (I doubt there’s many left after the bad run we’ve had this last week!) will find the runners up to Saturday but I won’t be posting any for the rest of the week. The data is only valid until the end of the month anyway, as the Guide will expire on 28th February, so it means you’ll only miss a few days. You can of course work them out yourselves from the free download found on the selections page. Despite the setback this past week  over the 4 months it’s performed very well and does show a decent profit so I’ll have a look at redoing the stats for the next few months on my return.

NEWBURY, ASCOT, HAYDOCK & WINCANTON

I’ll stick with my Paul Nicholls Lucky 63 for tomorrow at Newbury….

12.10 Valentine Vic
12.45 What A Friend
1.15 Tchico Polos
2.25 Minella Stars
3.00 Aiteen Thirtythree
3.35 Balding Banker

There’s some fantastic racing set to take place on Saturday and no doubt a lot of Cheltenham dreams will be either ignited or extinguished come the evening.

At Ascot on Saturday I’m hoping Westlin Winds runs in the big handicap hurdle at 3.35. He’s not really built on his good 3rd at Chepstow on his reappearance but a drop in the weights and the step up in trip should make him a bit more competitive than he has been of late. Cross Kennon is declared to run in the Rendlesham at Haydock and may represent a bit of value in this second division staying hurdle race. A good run here would also help my 150/1 each way speculative punt for the World Hurdle look a little less mad. If I wasn’t off to Vegas I’d be attending Wincanton on Saturday for their Kingwell Hurdle day. At the 5 day stage it looked like being a great race but with Newbury now back on it will cut up quite badly and we’ll end up with only a handful of runners. At the weights, and the likely opposition, it looks tailor made for Mille Chief to stake his claim for a place in the Champion Hurdle line up.

GRAND NATIONAL

The weights for the world’s favourite race were published yesterday and I’ll take an indepth look at the race as soon as I get back. I did have a quick look through them though and my first impressions were that the handicapper has done a great job of keeping everyone pretty happy. I bet Evan Williams can’t believe the weight State Of Play got while David Pipe will be rubbing his hands together over the 10-08 for his previous National winner Comply or Die  and Paul Nicholls must be amazed Grade 1 winner What A Friend is 4lb less than the topweight.

But the one that really caught my eye was the 10-11 for Notre Pere. I’ve never been a great fan of his and on more than one occasion I’ve labelled him the most over-rated chaser in Ireland but there’s no mistaking that back in handicap company off that sort of weight the former Welsh National winner looks very appealing. I’ve helped myself to a little of the 33’s……

KEMPES

Hopefully a few of you are sitting on some pretty big prices for Willie Mullins’ chaser in the Gold Cup after I tipped him up at 66/1 a couple of weeks ago. For a horse who isn’t supposed to like testing ground he won very well last weekend and with better ground usually the norm at Cheltenham I reckon he goes there with an almighty chance. There are age concerns about some of the market leaders and in an open year Kempes, who has now won two Grade 1 chases over 3m+, still looks value to me at 16/1. As the Irish number one hope in the race he could easily be a single figured price on the day.

Along with Medermit (Arkle) at 14’s and Kalahari King (Ryanair) at 16’s my antepost portfolio is beginning to look very, very promising. I haven’t given up hope on Starluck making the frame in the Champion Hurdle yet (each way at 100/1) and I still eagerly await the declarations for the Festival Plate Handicap (did I tell you I really fancy Quartz De Thaix for that?). There are two more horses added to my list this week as I backed Sizing Europe at 18/1 for the Queen Mother (previous Arkle winners have an excellent place record in the following years Queen Mother) and Local Hero at 20’s for the Triumph (it’s a terrible race this year but this one’s unbeaten and a C&D winner. He hopefully runs on Saturday which should tell us whether 20’s is a good bet or not).

and finally - I’m not sure if anyone watches ITV’s late afternoon/early evening quiz show The Chase or not but I’ve got an audition for the show on March 17th. It’s bad timing as it’s Cheltenham on that day but if I get through it could all be worth it in the end. I just hope I don’t end up making a complete idiot of myself on national TV…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. If anyone’s looking for a bet today I quite fancy the chances of Duplicity in the 2.20 Southwell. Looking through his recent form you could be excused for thinking I need locking up as he’s finished stone cold last in his last two runs and has only managed to beat a total of 3 horses home in all of his last 5 races. He’s a horse in massive decline as, since beating Group 1 performer Hearts Of Fire by a length in a Newbury Listed race in 2009, he’s plummeted in the ratings from 100 down to just 70! Connections have now lost patience with him and have stuck him in a seller for the first time. I think the step back up in trip to a mile and the drop in class should bring out some of the old magic and his odds of 9/1 look value.

Apart from the Totesport Hurdle at 3.35 the Newbury card is a shade disappointing after promising so much when the entries were made. It looks like it could be a Paul Nicholls benefit day (see below) but we probably won’t get rich at some of the forecast prices on his runners. So, I’m just going to concentrate on the big handicap hurdle race.

Festival Trends readers will know that I’m very keen on a particular runner in tomorrow’s race and if the ground is riding anywhere near good I’d be extremely disappointed if he doesn’t at least make the frame. However, I do seem to be alone in that assumption as he’s been drifting all week on Betfair and it’s interesting to note that on the Racing Post website he doesn’t even get a single vote as the likely winner of the race! Oh well, I just hope they’re wrong and I’m right.

I also had a small each way ante-post bet on Walkon before he made his Seasonal debut which should pay for a seat upgrade when we fly to Vegas next week (Premium Economy not First Class!). With 23 runners in a tough handicap though it’s always best to have a back up plan and I’ll be having another each way bet on one of the bigger priced runners towards the bottom of the weights.

He was trained by Willie Mullins last year where he contested some of the biggest handicaps over hurdles including finishing 4th in the 30 runner MCR Hurdle at Leopardstown. He is now with Evan Williams who has run him three times this season and on what we’ve seen so far there’s a lot to like about TAKARI’s chances in the Totesport. His first race was a competitve Market Rasen Class 2 Handicap at the end of September where he finished a good 2nd to Palomar with Astracad (winner at Cheltenham next time out) back in third. He gave weight to both placed horses that day and stayed on nicely up the run-in without being able to land a blow on the winner. He is now 10lb better off with that rival in The Totesport for a 2 1/2 length beating which should be plenty enough to reverse the form. Next stop for Takari was Cheltenham and the very competitive Grade 3 Greatwood Handicap which was won by Champion Hurdle fancy Menorah. He raced in rear that day and was just making his move when coming down at the 3rd last flight. It’s asking a lot to think he would have won that day but things were beginning to look promising. He had a bit of a break over the Winter before coming back last week for the Welsh Champion Hurdle. He faced an impossible task with Oscar Whiskey at the weights but ran with great credit to finish just 12 lengths back in 3rd (would have been less but for a bad blunder at the last). The handicapper thought the same and raised him another 4lb to a rating of 136.

He is able to run off his old mark of 132 on Saturday and seems to handle any type of ground. The stable hasn’t been in the best of form over the last fortnight or so but they’ve had a couple of winners in the last 2 days and hopefully are on the way back.

He’s 25/1 with most firms now but 888sport are paying 1/4 odds first 5 home on the race and that looked good to me. I now have another online betting account! although for new customers they are offering you your money back (up to £20) if your first bet loses.

www.888sport.com/bet

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Some interesting stats for Paul Nicholls at Newbury in February….

Since 2004 he’s had an incredible 16 winners from just 51 runners (31.4%) at the track in the month of February. Backing all of his horses would have given you a healthy +£15.36 profit.

But all of his winners have been 14/1 or under with all 12 outsiders at bigger odds getting beaten. Also all 16 winners were aged 5-8yo.

Following these two simply rules (5-8yo’s at 14/1 or shorter) would have given you 16 winners from 37 runners. That’s an amazing 43.2% strike rate and would have won you £29.36 at £1 level stakes.

His record over the years has been…

2004 2 winners from 7 runners
2005 1 from 7
2006 Meeting Abandoned
2007 2 from 5
2008 4 from 6
2009 3 from 4
2010 4 from 8

Contrast that with Nigel Twiston-Davies who has sent 19 runners to the meeting since 2004 and has had no winners. In fact Mahogany Blaze finishing 2nd to Master Minded in the 5 runner Game Spirit chase last season was his only placed runner in that entire time period!

Or Alan King. He’s had 23 runners since 2004 without success (but has at least had 6 placed runners). With 13 of those 23 runners starting at 10/1 or under and 9 being in the 1st three in the betting he’s definitely another trainer to be wary of.

The horses from the Paul Nicholls stable that may qualify (as long as they are 14/1 or under) on Saturday are;

1.20 Al Ferof
1.55 Valentine Vic
2.25 What A Friend
3.00 Tchicos Polos
4.05 Aiteen Thirtythree
4.40 Balding Banker

Which might make an interesting Lucky 63.

And the horses I won’t be backing from the Twiston-Davies and Alan King stables;

1.20 Yourgunnabelucky (AK)
1.55 Akertac (NTD)
1.55 Awesome Freddie (AK)
2.25 Mahogany Blaze (NTD)
3.35 Saldon Licht (AK)
3.35 Walkon (AK)
3.35 The Betchworth Kid (AK)
3.35 Iolith (AK)
4.40 Bygones in Brid (AK)

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

Time is running out if you want to claim your stake in the £10ew Lucky 15 I’ve placed on our 4 Ante-Post horses. The first one runs in the Totesport Trophy tomorrow and after the off, although you’ll still be able to join Festival Trends, you won’t qualify for a slice of any winnings from the bet. Tomorrow’s runner is 20/1 and will be followed by 3 horses running at Cheltenham - a 12/1 shot (now 9/2), a 3/1 hope and a 6/1 poke in the Gold Cup. Potential returns are over £125,000! and all Year Subscribers will receive an equal share.

If you want to get involved with the Number 1 Trends Service in Britain then simply sign-up below….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

or read about our service, see some examples and check all our results from last year here….

http://festivaltrends.co.uk/

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Friday Fun

Actually it’s not really ‘fun’ but it will make you gasp in amazement. Two videos released by Network Rail to highlight the dangers some people take at level crossings.

The first one is the true definition of a close shave. Forget the first guy and keep watching…..

And the second is just incredible. I’ve watched it 3 times now and still can’t believe it. You might think I’ve put the wrong video up the first time you watch it because by the time the train gets to the crossing it doesn’t look possible that anything can happen. Keep watching though…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

TRAINERS AND JOCKEYS GUIDE

Last week I ran a series of posts outlining some stats for the top Jockeys and Trainers at the forthcoming Cheltenham meeting. With the meeting still over a month away I’m sure most of you will have forgotten about them by then or won’t fancy trying to find the relevant posts in the archive section if you wanted to use them for reference. So to make things nice and easy I’ve put them all together in a 15 page Guide for you.

It’s 100% FREE and is available directly from the following link…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1440&i=l19

There are no details required, no sign-up necessary and absolutely nothing to pay. It’s a one click, direct link to the guide. (The letters and numbers at the end are simply for me to be able to track how many are downloaded).

Download it, keep it safe until March and then, let’s bash the bookies at Cheltenham!

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The weekend round-up….

Medermit

For me the star of the weekend was Medermit who seems to have put his shaky start over fences well behind him. Ctitics had jumped on his one blip, when he refused at Huntingdon, to dismiss his chances at the Festival but I think that was purely down to the front running tactics that were adopted on the day. I’m sure we won’t see connections make that mistake again and with the usual fast pace of the Arkle (confirmed by trainer Alan King as his taget race) he’ll be able to sit behind in his usual effortless way. After running over further on his last two starts the Cheltenham hill shouldn’t pose too many problems at the end of 2 miles and this top class former hurdler looks certain to run a massive race.  My 14/1 is beginning to look very nice indeed….

Quartz De Thaix

I cannot wait for the Cheltenham handicap declarations to be made just to see whether Venetia Williams is indeed plotting a coup with Quartz De Thaix. He has a chase rating 14lb lower than his hurdles rating and in a season where he’s been confined to running over the smaller obstacles it does look like she’s preserving that chase mark for a reason. He was far from disgraced in the Grade 3 handicap hurdle on Saturday where under top weight he  finished a very respectable 6th but unless the handicapper is willing to drop him at least 7lb  it would be hard to see him getting competitive in something like the Coral Cup. However, a mark of 132 for the Festival Plate handicap on the Thursday of Cheltenham looks absolutely perfect. Why that race? Because he was entered for it last year, he’s run before at the Festival, has won around Cheltenham, French Breds have an amazing record in the race and Venetia Williams has had 2 winners and 5 placed from 11 runners in the last 10 years. Of course I could have got it all wrong and he doesn’t even get entered for the race but if he gets an entry for a prep-race over fences in the next couple of weeks I’ll be pulling on my punting boots in excited anticipation…..

Binocular / Oscar Whiskey

With all the talk at the moment about the lack of prizemoney it seems amazing that Nicky Henderson and his owners were allowed to walk off with £40,000 on Saturday for what basically were two exercise canters. With 6 weeks until Cheltenham surely there must have been at least 2 horses rated above 155 who could have taken on Binocular and Oscar Whiskey. The Welsh Champion Hurdle had prize money of more than a grand for 5th place and yet only 5 horses turned up. The 4th and last horse home at Sandown got £854. Coming just 2 days after 3 runners contested a £10k chase at Bangor it makes it very difficult to have any sympathy for owners and trainers who moan about the lack of prizemoney.  The upshot of it all was that we were left with two Champion Hurdle ‘trials’ that told us nothing except Oscar Whiskey is good enough to run in the big one and Binocular doesn’t like racing in small fields off a slow pace (something we knew anyway). Despite the general consensus that Binocular wasn’t very impressive the bookies weren’t falling for it and he’s still favourite for the Champion and, to me, is the one they all still have to beat….

Other Cheltenham clues were thin on the ground especially for the Triumph Hurdle where the latest well fancied 4yo to run, Moose Moran, got stuffed at even money in the opener at Sandown. The winner came into the race on the back of an an All Weather hat-trick of wins in the space of a week just before Christmas but that was helped by being dropped to a very lenient AW mark. In beating a 114 rated hurdler by just over 3 lengths he hardly set the world alight and his quotes of 25/1 for the Triumph says it all. Over at Musselburgh yesterday The Scottish Triumph Hurdle was contested by 8 horses who will struggle to make the grade for the Fred Winter Handicap, let alone the Triumph Hurdle, and was won by a 116 rated horse who might be improving but is knowhere near good enough to win at Cheltenham. All eyes will now firmly be on the 4yo Adonis Hurdle at Kempton in two weeks time….

Anquetta won the 2m Handicap Chase at Sandown on Saturday and with Nicky Henderson’s record in the race will probably head to the Grand Annual as a fancied runner but he looks a real dodgy horse and I wouldn’t want to back him in a fight up the hill. On more than one occasion in the past he’s flashed his tail and run around when challenged and won’t be for me.

Probably the biggest disappointment of the weekend was the postponement of the Leopardstown card yesterday. With some major players in the Gold Cup set to contest the Hennessey and Zaidpour out to restore his reputation it looked an important days racing with one eye on the future. We’ll now have to wait for Saturday to see them in action but a little of the shine has been taken off the Hennessey with the announcement that Pride of Dulcotte won’t be running. Still it makes things easier for Kempes…..

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

Without giving too much away, the results on Saturday certainly didn’t hinder the chances of our Ante-Post Lucky 15 bet and for one particular selection it was positively enhanced as his price has now been halved. All paid up, Year Ticket subscribers will share the proceeds from our £10ew bet which could be as much as £126,548.75 if all 4 are successful. Nice! Our first runner is this Saturday in the Totesport Trophy so it’s still not too late to join but you must be paid up by the ‘off’ of this race if you want a share of any winnings.

If you want to get involved with the Number 1 Trends Service in Britain then simply sign-up below….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

or read about our service, see some examples and check all our results from last year here….

http://festivaltrends.co.uk/

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’ve been taking a look at the records of the top trainers at the Cheltenham Festival this week but for the final part of my statistical analysis I will put the jockeys under the spotlight…. 

RUBY WALSH

With the backing of Paul Nicholls and some of the leading Irish trainers, including Willie Mullins, it’s no surprise to see him as the top jockey at the meeting since 2006. Ruby Walsh has ridden 19 winners from 100 rides (19%) over the last five Cheltenham Festivals including an amazing 7 winners in 2009. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you just 85p at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 3 / 19 (wins / runners)  
2007 - 3 / 19 
2008 - 3 / 21 
2009 - 7 / 20
2010 - 3 / 21

Hurdles  11 winners from 51 rides
Chases 8 winners from 44 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 5 rides

A very strong stat is that 18 of his 19 winners were aged 4-7yo. It’s not worth backing Walsh on an outsider, should he be given the ride, as 18 of his 19 winners were at odds of 15/2 or less with just one horse winning from 44 rides that started at 8/1 or higher. Those 18 winners were all from the front 4 in the betting. Just stick with the fancied horses that have good recent form as 18 of his 19 winners had finished in the top 3 on their previous start (16 won) and 18 of his 19 winners had won at least one of their last two starts.

Paul Nicholls and Willie Mullins have provided Ruby Walsh with 88 of his 100 rides and he has won on 18 of them.

If you had backed all of Ruby Walsh’s rides that had won within their last 2 starts, were aged 4-7 and at 15/2 or shorter in the betting you would have had 17 winners from 45 rides (37.8%) and made a LSP of +£30.39 over the last 5 Festivals.

PADDY BRENNAN

Paddy Brennan has ridden 6 winners from 72 rides (8.3%) at the rate of at least 1 a year over the past 5 Cheltenham Festivals. Backing all his runners over this period would have won you a healthy £26 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 1 / 14 (wins / runners)  
2007 - 1 / 14 
2008 - 1 / 13 
2009 - 1 / 17
2010 - 2 / 14

Hurdles  3 winners from 37 rides
Chases 3 winners from 35 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 0 rides

There’s not too much to go on with regard to Brennan’s winners as he’s had quite a few different types of horse win for him. Probably the most striking is that 5 of the 6 were on horses aged 7-9yo (from 37 rides) with just 1 winner from his other 35 rides on runners outside this age bracket (0 from 8 on those aged 10 years+).

RICHARD JOHNSON

With the Phillip Hobbs stable under performing at recent Festivals it’s not surprising to see  Richard Johnson struggle here with just 4 winners from 66 rides (6.1%) since 2006. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £14.50 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 1 / 16 (wins / runners)  
2007 - 1 / 14 
2008 - 0 / 12 
2009 - 0 / 12
2010-  2 / 12

Hurdles  3 winners from 31 rides
Chases 1 winners from 32 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 3 rides

All 4 of his winners came in races up to 2m5f in distance with all 18 of his rides beyond this trip getting beat (just 3 placed). His 10 rides starting at 28/1 or bigger have all been beaten but he has had two such horses placed for him. All 4 of his winners finished in the top 3 on their previous start (21 losers finished 4th or worse). He rode all of his 4 winners in their previous race (from 45 such rides) with the 21 horses he replaced a different jockey all getting beat. All 4 of his winners were trained by Phillip Hobbs with his 20 outside rides all losing.

All 15 horses he rode that were dropping down in trip compared to their previous run were beaten, although 8 did make the frame. He’s ridden 13 horses carrying 10-11 or less and has lost on them all. It’s the same story for the 15 rides with 11-10 or more. The 13 horses aged 9 and over he’s been aboard have all been beaten (just 2 placed).

A P McCOY

The great Tony McCoy hasn’t been smiling too much at recent Cheltenham Festivals although he has managed to ride at least 1 winner a year since 2006 and 8 winners in total from his 94 rides at the meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £45.37 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 3 / 20 (wins / runners) 
2007 - 1 / 18 
2008 - 1 / 19 
2009 - 1 / 18 
2010 - 2 / 19

Hurdles  4 winners from 47 rides
Chases 4 winners from 42 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 5 rides

All 5 of his rides at 3m2f or further have been beaten. He hasn’t had a winner on the Wednesday of the meeting for at least 7 years (29 rides). He’s had 17 handicap hurdle losers from 17 rides since 2006. All 26 of the 4 & 5yo’s he’s ridden in this time period have been beaten as have all 7 horses aged 10 or older.

He’s ridden 70 horses that have started in the first 4 of the betting and he’s won on just 6 of them (all favourites).

All 8 of his winners finished in the first 2 on their previous start (7 won).

ROBERT THORNTON

Another jockey who has suffered thanks to the poor form of his principal trainer. His last 33 rides at the Festival have all lost! Despite that, since 2006 Robert Thornton has ridden 9 winners from 73 rides (12.3%) and backing all his runners over this period would have actually won you £5 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2005 2 / 14 (wins / runners) 
2007 4 / 13 
2008 3 / 16 
2009 0 / 13 
2010 0 / 17

Hurdles  5 winners from 43 rides
Chases 4 winners from 28 rides
NH Flat 0 winners from 2 rides

Not a lot to go on but all 33 of his rides that were 16/1 or bigger have been beaten with just 2 making the frame. 8 of his 9 winners made the top 3 on their last run (exception fell) and 8 had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts. All 22 horses he has ridden aged 8yo or over have been beaten.

Alan King has provided him with 7 of his wins from 58 rides.

And there you have it.

I hope you’ve enjoyed reading the stats and that you’ve gained plenty of useful information over the last 4 days. I’ve put everything together in a 14 page guide that I’ll be giving away FREE on Monday. Absolutely nothing to pay whatsoever.

I’m probably going to Ffos Las tomorrow (weather permitting), for the Welsh Champion Hurdle, after Dylan’s played football in the morning which means I won’t be posting over the weekend. I’ll update the AW Jockeys as usual but you’ll have to do without my tips for this Saturday (which should be a relief to all of you). However, I have backed the ex-Henry Cecil trained Moose Moran for the Triumph Hurdle so will be watching his chosen race this weekend with great interest.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Before I give you the final installment of my Cheltenham trainer stats there’s a few things I want to mention….

Firstly, I checked our Ten To Follow entries yesterday to see how we were getting on in the competition. It’s probably fair to say, not very well! with most of our lists lying towards the bottom of the table but a couple of entries still have an outside chance of finishing respectably, especially with Cheltenham coming up. Our top list of 10 has 277 points (the leader currently has 455 points), lies in 5279th place and looks like this;

Mille Chief
Hurricane Fly
Long Run
Big Zeb
Big Bucks
Cue Card
Forpadydeplasterer
Planet of Sound
Albertas Run
Solwhit

On a brighter note my FREE AW Jockeys Guide is still absolutely flying with another 2 winners yesterday (15/2 and 8/1) from 7 runners to follow up it’s 2 from 2 the day before. It’s now up over £1300 since it started and has had 13 winners in the last week alone at odds of 16/1 (dead heat), 9/1, 8/1, 8/1, 15/2, 6/1, 7/2, 2/1, 2/1, 13/8, 6/5, evs and 4/5. All of the selections are worked out for you and can be found by simply clicking on the tab in the left hand menu marked AW JOCKEYS. Get today’s runners NOW it’s 100% COMPLETELY FREE!

FESTIVAL TRENDS

If all the talk of Cheltenham this week has got you thinking about the upcoming Festival then you might be interested to know that subscriptions are now being taken for the Festival Trends Guides. We had an amazing year in 2010 and finished 295pts up on all our selections thanks mainly to an incredible run in March-May where we tipped both the Irish and Scottish National winners (25/1 and 18/1), 22/1 (50/1 advised) &  28/1 winners at Aintree plus three consecutive winners at the Cheltenham Festival at 7/1, 10/1 and 10/1.

The flat wasn’t too bad either and ended with a bang when we tipped both the Ayr Silver Cup and Ayr Gold Cup winners at 33/1 and 14/1 within 24 hours!! You can read all about our exploits here http://festivaltrends.co.uk/

It’s a little bit quiet before the Cheltenham Festival but we do have Newbury (Totesport Trophy), Kempton (Racing Post Chase) and Sandown (Imperial Cup) coming up in the next month or so and I’ve also released a 4 race ante-post guide which covers the Totesport (20/1 strong fancy) and 3 races from the Festival.

As a special offer to all readers you can get 33% off the price of a Year Ticket if you sign up before 1st March and all yearly subscribers paid up by before Saturday 12th February will also qualify for the following promotion…..

I’ve placed a £10ew Lucky 15 with Stan James on my 4 Ante-Post horses and any winnings will be split equally between all paid Year Ticket Subscribers who have signed up before the Totesport Trophy is run (12th Feb 2011) *(Terms and Conditions Apply). The odds taken on the 4 horses were 20/1, 12/1, 6/1 and 3/1 which will retun £126,548.75 if all 4 are successful. Nice!

If you want to get involved with the Number 1 Trends Service in Britain then sign-up below….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

or read about our service, see some examples and check all our results from last year here….

http://festivaltrends.co.uk/

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Back to the free stuff and the 3rd part of my trainer statistics series……

JONJO O’NEILL

Jonjo O’Neill has had at least one winner at the Festival every year since 2006. In total he’s had 7 winners from 86 runners (8.1%). Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you just 62p at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 1 / 21 (wins / runners)  
2007 - 3 / 19 
2008 - 1 / 12 
2009 - 1 / 17
2010 - 1 / 17

Avoid his runners at the minimum trip as all 18 of his winners running in distance up to 2m1f have been beaten as have all 15 of his 4 and 5yo runners. In fact those 15 were ALL unplaced. The same goes for those 11 aged 10yo or older  (ALL unplaced.)
All 10 of his runners that Fell or Pulled Up on their last run were beaten (just 1 placed) and all 11 of his runners carrying 10-07 or less suffered the same fate (though 4 were placed). All 4 of his female runners lost. All 19 of his runners that had run in the previous 25 days were beaten
and like a lot of other trainers at the meeting all 11 runners ridden by a claiming jockey failed to win.

That’s the type of Jonjo runner to avoid but what about the sort he does well with? Well, all 7 of his winners had won within their last 4 starts and they were all aged 6 - 9yo. 6 of the 7 came on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting. Interestingly, 6 of his 7 winners carried top-weight or equal top weight (35 runners) while 4 of his winners started favourite (from 9 runners). Finally, 5 of his winners finished in the top 2 on their previous start.

Tony McCoy has ridden 5 (1 in each year since 2006) of the O’Neill winners from his 29 rides (17.2%) for a very small level stakes profit of £1.37. All 5 winners were at a distance of 2m4f – 3m1f and all finished in the top 2 last time out.

Backing all such McCoy runners would have given you the 5 winners from 12 runners and a Level Stakes Profit of £18.37. 4 of his winners started favourite (from 7 such runners.)

If you forget backing Jonjo’s runners in handicaps and concentrate on his 6-9yo’s that carry top weight (or equal top weight) on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting you would have had 6 winners from 19 runners (31.6%) and made a very impressive £60.37 Level Stakes Profit.

Miss VENETIA WILLIAMS

She managed just 3 winners from 55 runners (5.5%) but thanks to some big priced winners is able to show a level stakes profit of +£9.00

Her record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 0 / 8 (wins / runners)  
2007 - 1 / 13 
2008 - 0 / 8 
2009 - 2 / 17
2010 - 0 / 9

All 3 of her winners came in Class 1 handicaps (not novice) on the Thursday of the meeting over 2m4f – 3m1f. All of them had finished in the top 4 on their previous runs. She’s only had 6 similar runners over the years for those 3 winners at a LSP of +£54.00

FERDY MURPHY

You can usually rely on Ferdy Murphy to have at least one winner at the meeting with his only blank coming in 2009 . He’s had 6 winners from 45 runners (13.3%) since 2006 and shows a whopping £118 profit to £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 2 / 10 (wins / runners)  
2007 - 2 / 8 
2008 - 1 / 7 
2009 - 0 / 10
2010 - 1 / 10

Beware his runners over shorter tripes as all 10 of his runners up to 2m 1f have been beaten. He’s had all 3 of his favourites beaten and all 3 of his horses that were 66/1 or bigger were unplaced.

His winners were all aged 7 – 10 (30 such runners)and had been rested for at least 26 days since their last run. All 6 of his winners came in races of 16 runners or more while 4 of the 6 had finished in the top 2 last time out

If you had backed Ferdy Murphy’s runners at 2m4f or further that were aged 7 – 10 you would have had all 6 winners from 22 runners and made an absolutely amazing £141 profit to £1 Level Stakes.

THE IRISH CHALLENGE

The Irish can usually be counted on to win a few races at the Festival but there are quite a lot of notable trainers who have failed to score in the last 5 years……

Dermot Weld hasn’t had a winner at the Cheltenham Festival from his last 15 runners stretching all the way back to 2005. Likewise, Noel Chance hasn’t had a winner at the Cheltenham Festival from his last 8 runners also going back to 2005 although 5 of the 8 have been placed. Edward O’Grady had his last winner at the Festival in 2006 with 23 consecutive losers since then. Dessie Hughes is another Irish trainer who’s been suffering over the last few years with just 2 placed horses from 22 runners. You can also add Tony Martin to the list as he hasn’t had a winner since 2006 and has had 15 losers in the last 4 years. Paul Nolan has had just 1 placed horse from 12 runners since 2006

Jessica Harrington has manged one winner since 2006 from 25 runners while C. Byrnes has had 2 winners from 12 runners since 2006 both courtesy of Weapons Amnesty who won at the Festival in 2009 and 2010. Henry de Bromhead has had 10 runners since 2005 and just 1 winner but with 7 of those runners starting at odds of 16/1 or over it may be best to simply concentrate on his fancied horses.

As I said, some big names from over the Irish Sea who have had a pretty rough time of it of late.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at the top 5 jockeys at the meeting.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’m glad you enjoyed yesterday’s trainer statistics for the Cheltenham Festival. Thanks for all the emails and kind comments.

Before I give you a few more trainers to mull over I have to tell you this. While checking the results with my missus in Ladbrokes Penarth branch yesterday the cashier came out and asked us both for ID. I kid you not. Either she’d been drinking in her lunch break or she’s due a visit to Specsavers because at 42 I couldn’t pass for an under 18yo if I went on that 10 years younger TV programme 2 weeks on the trot. 20 years stress of running betting shops certainly hasn’t helped keep me looking fresh faced! (I’m sure all of those of you who have met me would back me up on that). I daren’t mention how old the missus is but, beautiful and younger looking than her actual age she may be, even she would admit that being mistaken as underage would be pushing it. I was probably owning betting shops before the cashier was born but as neither of us had anything suitable with us, and with the manager was backing her up, we were asked to leave the shop. Talk about embarrassing.  That’s twice in 10 months it’s happened to me (once in Vegas and now here). The world’s gone mad!

Anyway on with the show…….

ALAN KING

He had quite a bit of success at the track up to 2008 but his well documented troubles over the last two seasons have rather damaged his overall figures. He’s still had a respectable 9 winners from 97 runners (9.3%) but you would have recorded a level stakes loss of £23.50.

His overall record looks like this……

2006 - 2 / 16 (wins / runners)   
2007 - 3 / 17 
2008 - 3 / 18 
2009 - 1 / 25
2010 - 0 / 21

Let’s start with that incredible stat I promised you on Monday that has seen 69 of the 97 runners Alan King has sent to the Festival all get beaten. Amazingly that is the number of horses of his that have started at 11/1 or bigger without a single success. Just 28 of his runners have been 10/1 or less but you would have backed all of his 9 winners. So don’t expect a shock Alan King winner this March!

All 9 of his winners carried within 8lb of the bottom weight and, following on from that, 6 of his 9 winners carried 11-06 or more. All of his 9 winners had been rested at least 20 days since their last run. 8 of those 9 winners were aged 5-7yo which is the same number of winners that finished in the top 2 last time out. A smaller number, but no less important, is the fact that 6 of his winners came at 2miles – 2m1f (from 34 such runners) while 7 of his winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts.

On the downside, and something that might interest the layers amongst you, is that all of his last 20 handicap hurdle runners have been beaten as have all 24 runners aged 8yo or older. All 4 of his female runners have been beaten while all 7 of his runners ridden by a claiming jockey have lost with just one placed.

Robert Thornton has ridden the majority of winners for the stable with 7 from 58 rides. None of his winners were in handicaps and all were 10/1 or under. Following these 2 simple rules would have given you 7 winners from 15 rides and an impressive £40.50 level stakes profit. If you restricted yourself to then only backing those runners with at least one top 2 finish in their last 2 runs you would have had a very nice 7 winners from 11 rides (63.6% strike rate) and a £44.50 LSP.

Assuming his recent troubles are behind him then the type of Alan King horses we should be looking for are those starting at 10/1 or under that finished in the top 2 last time out. Since 2006 he’s had 22 such runners and 8 winners (36.4%) for a Level Stakes Profit of £45.50. 14 of the 22 were at least placed.

BUT BEWARE: the 5 runners satisfying this criteria that started favourite were all beaten including one at odds-on (Voy Por Ustedes)!

NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES

Since 2006 Nigel Twiston-Davies has had just 6 winners from 84 runners (7.1%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £15.50 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 0 / 17 (wins / runners)  
2007-  0 / 9 
2008 - 1 / 18 
2009 - 2 / 19
2010 - 3 / 21

A staggering 49 of his 84 runners have been sent off as rank outsiders at 28/1 or higher and all 49 have been beaten. Just 4 made the frame (but none of those 4 were 66/1 or bigger). Like Paul Nicholls he’s a slow starter at the meeting as all 25 of his runners on the Tuesday have been beaten in the last 5 years. Also, all 26 of his runners to have finished 7th or worse on their last run have been beaten and all 11 of his runners that fell or pulled up last time out ran unplaced. All 10 of his 4 & 5yo runners have been beaten and so have all 10 aged 11 or older. It gets worse as all 18 runners that had their last run in the previous 19 days have been beaten as were all 16 horses that were ridden by jockeys claiming in the race.

There are some positives to look at as all 6 of his winners had their last run in the previous 20-90 days while 5 of his 6 winners came on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting (41 runners). 5 of his 6 winners came in chase events as did those weighted within just 4lb of the bottom weight in the race.

Paddy Brennan has ridden 4 of Twiston-Davies’s 6 winners from 33 rides for the stable. All were on the Thursday and Friday of the meeting.

PHILLIP HOBBS

Things haven’t been to good for Phillip Hobbs at recent Cheltenham Festivals as he’s managed just 4 winners from 86 runners (4.7%). Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you £34.50 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2005 - 1 / 17 (wins / runners) 
2006 - 1 / 15 
2007 - 0 / 16 
2008 - 0 / 17 
2009 - 2 / 21

Another British trainer who has struggled in the bumper with all 5 of his runners finishing out of the frame. There are plenty of negatives to be found with all 15 of his runners in Class 2 races having been beaten as were the 20 horses he’s run that were aged 9 or over. Interestingly, all 30 of his runners that finished 4th or worse in their last race were beaten. If you dig around, you can find that all 20 of his runners that were dropping down in trip from their previous run got beaten and all of his runners that were rested 61 days or more since their last run fared no better. The 13 horses ridden by jockeys able to claim an allowance all lost.

On the plus side we can see that all 4 of his winners have come in races up to 2m5f in distance (25 losers at 3m+). Also all 4 of his winners finished in the top 3 on their previous run, carried between 10-12 and 11-09 and last ran in the previous 20-60 days.

Richard Johnson has ridden  all 4 of Phillip Hobbs’s winners from 46 rides for the stable.

DAVID PIPE

His Dad may have dominated the Cheltenham Festival during his illustrious training career but Pipe Jnr has strugggled since taking over the stable in 2006. David Pipe has had just 5 winners from 105 runners (4.8%) at this meeting. Backing all his runners over this period would have lost you a whopping £50.50 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 4 years has been….
 
2007 - 1 / 26 (wins / runners)  
2008 - 2 / 26 
2009 - 0 / 32 
2010 - 2 / 21

There’s not too much to go on but all 5 winners were in Class 1 races up to 3m1f.

It’s also best to keep an eye on jockeys coming in for a spare ride as stable jockeys Tim Murphy and Tom Scudamore have only ridden 1 winner apiece on David Pipe runners from 28 and 35 rides respectively.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at Ferdy Murphy, Venetia Williams, a few Irish trainers and Jonjo O’Neill….

Good luck,
Gavin.

As promised here are some (hopefully) interesting statistics I’ve dug up concerning the top trainers and their record at the Cheltenham Festival.

PAUL NICHOLLS

The champion trainer has had 17 winners from 163 runners at a strike rate of 10.4%.
You would have lost £52 by backing his horses to a £1 level stake.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 3 / 29 (wins / runners) 
2007 - 4 / 34 
2008 - 3 / 34 
2009 - 5 / 35 
2010 - 2 / 31

For whatever reason he doesn’t seem to do very well on the first day of the meeting as he has only had the 1 winner from his 35 runners on the Tuesday while races at 3m4f or further are not his forte either as he hasn’t had any winners at these extended distances from his 12 runners in the last 5 years. Not surprisingly all 5 of his Bumper runners have lost but a bigger shock may be that all 23 runners he’s had in the Class 2 contests held at the Festival have been beaten.

Still looking for a shock Nicholl’s winner? Forget it, as all 31 of his rank outsiders trading at 28/1 or bigger have been beaten and he’s had just 1 winner from 67 runners that were 16/1 or bigger. Following on from that is the fact that from his 45 runners who had finished 4th or worse last time out, he’s had just the one winner.

All 13 horses he sent to the Festival aged 10 or older have been beaten (just 1 placed) and he’s only had 2 winners from 42 runners that were aged 8 or older. All 13 horses that were trying to defy a break of 91 days or more since their last run have been beaten.

Young, fancied runners with good recent form are the type of winners Paul Nicholls has at the Festival.

To back this up it’s worth noting that 14 of his 17 winners won last time out with 16 of his 17 winners starting 1st or 2nd favourite in their previous race. His 4 and 5yo’s have given him 7 winners from their 46 runners and returned a level stakes profit of +£21 (forget the NH runners to make it +£26).

You probably don’t need me to tell you that it also helps if Ruby Walsh is riding them as all 20 horses ridden by a jockey claiming an allowance in the race have been beaten. Christian Williams has had 14 rides for Paul Nicholls at the Festival over the last 5 years and failed to make the frame on all of them. Walsh on the other hand has ridden 13 winners (from 61 rides) and shows a level stakes profit of just under £10 for the stable. But beware of Ruby Walsh riding in handicap chases for the stable as he’s been beaten on all 18 such rides.

Basically, forget backing Walsh when he rides for the stable on the Tuesday and don’t bet him on the Nicholls’ handicap chasers. Following these two simple rules would have given you 12 winners from 34 rides and a level stakes profit of £29.89 over the last 5 years.

NICKY HENDERSON

Since 2006 Nicky Henderson has had 9 winners from 136 runners (6.6%) at the Cheltenham Festival but backing all his runners over this period would have lost you just £8.16 at £1 level stakes.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 3 / 23 (wins / runners)  
2007 - 0 / 23 
2008 - 0 / 20 
2009 - 3 / 32
2010 - 3 / 38

Like Nicholls, it pays to avoid the Henderson runners that race over the longer trips (3 miles+) as all 29 of his runners at these distances have been beaten. Interestingly, it’s also worth noting his runners that are trying a shorter trip here at Cheltenham compared to their previous run as all 22 horses in the last 5 years to do so have been beaten.

All 9 horses that Fell or Pulled Up on their previous run failed to win at Cheltenham and all 19 of Nicky Henderson’s horses that carried 10-07 or less were beaten with just 2 making the frame. There were also 19 female horses that ran from the Henderson stable who all lost and
38 horses that ran coming off a break of 61 days or more that failed to win.

He’s had 12 runners in Novice handicaps without success but possibly the most amazing stat of all concerning Nicky Henderson is that he’s had 25 horses start as 1st or 2nd favourite at the last 5 Cheltenham Festivals and only 1 has won!

Backing all male Henderson runners up to 2m5f and carrying 10-08 or more that weren’t in Novice handicaps would have given you the 9 winners from 69 runners and a very impressive Level Stakes profit of £58.83. (Forgetting those runners above 25/1 would have saved you a further 8 bets.)

Tony McCoy has had just one winner for the stable from 12 rides while Andrew Tinkler has also had one winner but from 17 rides. Marcus Foley is 0 from 10. Not surprisingly Barry Gerraghty has ridden the most winners for the stable with 4 wins from 30 rides and shows a Level Stakes Profit of £21.50. All of those winners were 4-6yo’s in hurdle races up to 2m 5f.

Backing Gerraghty under these conditions would have given you 4 winners from 10 rides and a LSP of £41.50.

WILLIE MULLINS

Willie Mullins has had at least one winner every year since 2007 and 8 winners from 92 runners (8.7%) in total since 2006. He shows a small level stakes profit of +£3.25.

His record for the last 5 years has been….

2006 - 0 / 17 (wins / runners)  
2007 - 1 / 14 
2008 - 2 / 11 
2009 - 3 / 21
2010 - 2 / 29

He’s well known for winning the Cheltenham Bumper but interestingly only 1 of his last 22 runners in the race has been successful. In fact 6 of his 8 winners were in hurdle races. 7 of his 8 winners came in races up to a distance of 2m5f but all 11 Mullins runners dropping down in trip compared to their previous run got beat. All of his 4 runners in Class 2 races have been unplaced as have all 5 of his runners starting at 66/1 or bigger. 7 of his 8 winners returned favourite on their previous run

All 8 of his winners were aged 5-7yo and all 8 of his winners had won at least 1 of their last two starts with 6 of the 8 winning last time out.

By backing all Mullins hurdlers that were 5-7yo, had won at least 1 of their last two starts up to a distance of 2m5f it would have given you 6 winners from 15 runners (40%) and a level stakes profit of +£64.00.

P. Townend is 0 from 20 on his rides for the stable.Ruby Walsh has ridden 5 winners from 27 mounts. All 5 winners were at distances of 2m4f – 3m1f and had won at least 1 of their last 2 starts.

If you had backed all of Ruby Walsh’s 10 runners that fulfilled that criteria since 2006 you would have backed 5 winners and, bizarrely, 5 fallers! for a level stakes profit of £10.25

Surely something to mull over on a dreary Tuesday afternoon. I’ll be back tomorrow with some more trainers and stats for you.

Good luck,
Gavin.