I’ll begin by apologising to all those readers who downloaded the free trends guide last weekend for the Sprint Cup. It wasn’t our best ever result and tipping a hot favourite like Starspangledbanner before seeing it run like that is particularly disappointing. I’ve a good mind to leave these Group 1 sprints alone next year as they really are impossible to work out.

It would have been impossible to select the winner from a trends point of view though as he was only the second 7yo winner in the races history. In fact he was only the third winner of the race to be aged 6 or over which goes to show what a trends busting result it really was. Hopefully a few of you were able to recoup some of the losses with Laaheb in the September Stakes which we did manage to tip.

If it hasn’t put you off the trends guides completely I’ll be giving away another race later in the week.

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Doncaster

After a pretty poor couple of weeks on the racing front things are about to change for the better tomorrow with the start of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting. This kickstarts the end of season influx of quality racing. In the next few months we can look forward to Ascot’s September meeting (scene of Frankie Magnificent 7 all those years ago), The Ayr Gold Cup, Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch cards, The Arc, The Breeders Cup, The Racing Post Trophy and all those wonderful big field Newmarket 2yo races. Bring it on!

But first it’s Doncaster where I’ve been doing a little bit of trainer and jockey research…..

And what better place to start than Frankie Dettori who absolutely loves this meeting. Mind you, the punters love him here too because if you had simply backed him on every ride since 2004 you would have had 15 winners from 73 rides and shown a level stakes profit of +£11.58. He’s had at least 2 winners every year over that period which makes for pretty decent reading.

But if you forget backing him in handicaps and concentrate solely on his rides in Class 1 & 2 races you would have had 12 winners from 42 rides and made a LSP of £32.08.

He has Group Therapy (3.10) and Al Zir (4.20) tomorrow.

You could even just back the colts and geldings to improve your profit rate to +£34.33 (9 winners from 26 rides at 34.6%) and then forget the Saeed Bin Suroor horses to improve your strike rate to 54.5% (6 winners from 11 rides).

Those 6 winners for outside stables have won at 8/1, 8/1, 10/11, 20/1, 7/2 and 15/2 and makes Group Therapy look an attractive bet in tomorrows 3.10.

He’s trained by Jeremy Noseda who also has a good record at this meeting having trained 5 winners from 28 runners since 2004 (17.8%). But you can forget all his horses that race at a mile or further as all 10 of these runners have been beaten. This leaves 5 winners from 18 (27.8%) and a profit of £12.25.

Another trainer with similar stats to Jeremy Noseda is John Dunlop who has had 5 winners from 27 runners to show a small profit of +£2.15. But all 9 of his fillies and mares have been beaten and all his runners starting over 10/1 have failed too.

So by just backing the fancied colts and geldings he runs you would have had those 5 winners from just 11 runners and made a nice £18.15 level stakes profit. He has a few interesting runners later in the week.

John Gosden doesn’t do too badly at this meeting either having sent out 4 winners from 28 runners. However all these winners have been in class 1 or 2 and were all 2 or 3yo’s. If we had backed all of these types of horses since 2004 we would have 4 winners with 7 losers and made £18.83 to level stakes. Prizefighting (4.20) and Mass Rally (4.50) are of interest tomorrow.

That should make a nice patent tomorrow: Group Therapy (3.10) Prizefighting (4.20) and Mass Rally (4.50)

Top Northern trainer Richard Fahey has really struggled at this meeting with just 3 winners since 2004 from the 46 runners the stable have sent out. However 2 of these winners were 2yo fillies and from just 6 similar types in this period it would have given you a +£11.00 LSP.

Birdie Belle (2.00) and Barefoot Lady (2.35) will be looking to improve those figures tomorrow but before rushing out to win your fortune on them, a word of warning: Beware the Fahey entries who haven’t had a recent run as all of his 27 runners not to have raced in the last 3 weeks have been beaten. With only 5 getting placed it looks like on balance it’s best to leave those two alone.

While we’re on the subject of leaving horses alone. How about avoiding these runners?….

- Tim Easterby handicap runners: 0 winners from 27 runners and just 4 placed since 2004.
(Mariachi Man 2.00, Grissom and Hazelrigg 5.20)

- Kevin Ryan runners in class 3 or lower races: 0 from 17 (7 placed)
(Oldjoesaid 5.20)

- Clive Brittain in class 1-3 races: 0 from 25 (3 placed)
(Planet Waves 2.00)

- Andrew Balding horses that ran in the last month (31 days): 0 from 18 (3 placed)
(Catalyze 2.00 & White Devil 4.50)

- Brian Smart runners in Class 1-3 races: 0 from 24 (5 placed)
(Moorhouse Lad & Spin Cycle 3.10)

You could of course argue that it just means these trainers are due a change of luck in these types of race and you should therefore back them.

 That’s what makes horse racing such a fun sport to try and work out!

Good luck,
Gavin.