I’m going to be away from my laptop this weekend as I have a Christening to attend in Devon on Sunday. We’re going down tonight after Dylan’s finished school so I can get to the casino for a poker tournament (might as well make the most of it!). Tomorrow I’ll go and see my magician friend Trev before spending the afternoon with my feet up watching the racing from Ascot as Dylan’s Nanny takes him out for the day. Good times. Then after the church service it’s back to Cardiff to begin work on Sunday night for the Calendar Club. Bad times. Yep, the time has come for me to go back to work. 4 months of selling calendars in Wales’s capital city awaits. Oh joy.

So on my last weekend of freedom I’ll be backing these little beauties in a bid to cheer myself up…….

It’s a rather uninspiring card that greets the beginning of the 3 day festival and if racing rulers want to save a few quid then I’d suggest making it a 2 day Saturday-Sunday meeting and add today’s Listed race to the Sunday card.

I do however quite fancy Polly’s Mark in that Listed race today (3.45) and she’ll be carrying my money at the fairly generous looking 11/4. Her main danger looks to be Ferdoos who has won her two starts in pretty convincing fashion but is stepping up in class here. Conversely Polly’s Mark takes a marked step down in class returning to this Listed race having contested a couple of Group 2 since running 2nd at Glorious Goodwood behind Eastern Aria. That’s good form and as the selection has shown a distinct liking for this track (won here and 2nd in this race last year) she looks the one they all have to beat today.

The other horse I’ll be backing today is the horse that I would have backed in tomorrow’s Challenge Handicap, Mass Rally. John Gosden’s gone with the easier option by running him in this Class 3 handicap (4.20) but he does have to carry topweight as a result. He’s also sporting a visor for the first time today which may not inspire too much confidence but it’s probably just a precautionary measure after he hung left last time out. He finished 5th that day but wasn’t beaten far and only weakened in the last 100 yards or so and hopefully he’ll be in the shake-up today. It doesn’t look like we’ll be getting the Racing Post forecast price of 10/1 as 15/2 is top this morning. That will have to do.

Onto Saturday’s card where I’ll be having a right old punt centring (is it centering, centreing or centring?) on Frankel in the Royal Lodge (2.30). If he gets beat I’ll be needing my job more than ever this year as I’ll be doubling him up with White Moonstone in the Fillies Mile.

It would be tempting to try a short price treble with Makfi in the QEII but there’s an outsider I’ll backing in that race instead. I can’t tell you what it is as I’ve gone with it in the Trends Guide but it’ll be music to my ears if Aussie Jim McGrath calls him in the frame.

The trends for the Challenge Cup (3.40) aren’t the greatest and with a classy looking renewal this year the main weight and ratings ones may be rendered useless but for those who want to have a look at them anyway you can click below….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1440&i=l18

It’s the full trends Guide for the Challenge Cup complete with selections and ratings. After our success in last weeks big handicaps (33/1 and 14/1 winners) it’s probably asking a bit much to get another big priced winner but there is 40/1 and 12/1 available about our main hopes. As usual it’s a one click, no sign-up, no details required link. 100% FREE.

The Saturday card gets off to a tricky start with a 21 runner Fillies & Mares handicap. These races are notoriously difficult to solve and should really be left well alone. But I just can’t help myself. Long Lashes was favourite for last years Fillies Mile but ran no sort of race then and finished a poor 8th. She’s had two runs this year and looked to be coming back to her best last time when beaten by Seta in a small race at Sandown. I’ll probably be having a small bet on her. I’ll also be having a small each way bet on a (hopefully) massive priced outsider in the same race. Victoria Sponge looked a progessive handicapper when trained by Richard Hannon last year but her new trainer has struggled a bit to find the key to her and she’s been, on the whole, disapponting this year. Tried over 10 furlongs on her last two starts without success this drop back to a mile could be the answer. That and actually coming out of the stalls at the same time as the others would help too! If she breaks tomorrow I can see her making the frame at a BIG price.

How about a Placepot on: 2-17 / 2 / 6 / 6-22-25-28 / 4-6 / 2-5 = 32 bets

Which just leaves Sunday.

 It all looks a bit too tricky for me but I’ll probably be having a small bet on Motrice in the 3.35, Laaheb in the 4.10 and Lady Of The Desert in the Diadem. I’ll definitely be backing Webbow though in the last.

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Friday Fun

It’s been ages since we had a bit of Friday Fun so here we are. While tip-tapping on my laptop some months ago I overheard Dylan laughing in the front room and went to find out what was so funny. I assumed it must be another episode of Spongebob Squarepants he was watching but no, it was a program called Horrible Histories. The Priestley-Bell household has now become avid watchers of this superb BBC sketch show. Great comedy actors, fantastic scripts and educational too! It’s completely wasted as a childrens program and should be on prime time TV. If only learning about history had been this much fun at school I might have done better than my ‘A’ Level Grade O…….

Have a great weekend and Good Luck,
Gavin.

I usually like to take a look back on a Monday to the previous weeks action but today, instead, I’m going to look forward to some of the races that are coming up over the next few weeks.

This Saturday sees Ascot stage it’s QEII meeting which is probably most famous for the day Frankie Dettori rode every winner through the card. A feat that will probably never be repeated again.

It’s an incredible card on Saturday and I’m hoping another Frank, Frankel, does the business by winning the Royal Lodge for Henry Cecil. That should tell us if he’s good enough to be considered a Derby prospect. All eyes will be on the feature race of the day The QEII over a mile when Canford Cliffs renews rivalry with 2000 Guineas winner Makfi and Sussex Stakes runner up Rip Van Winkle. It should be a race to savour. For some strange reason I can’t quite fathom Aiden O’Brien has left Cape Blanco in the race. Anyone throw any light on that one?

But the race I’m really interested in is the Challenge Cup Handicap over 7f. The stat that simply jumps off the page for this race is that 11 of the last 12 winners carried 9-00 or less with 10 of the 11 coming from a rating of 95 or less. Only 50/1 outsider Candidato Roy defied that stat when winning in 2007 off 9-07 and 105. There’s always one! Also, all winners going back to 1996 have been aged 3-6yo with the two 6yo winners coming in the last 3 years. All of the last four 3yo winners were rated 90-95.  A win at the distance is usually a bonus too with 10 of the last 12 having done this. Last years winner Advanced had some fairly good form at 7f though he hadn’t managed to win over the trip. Bar the two big outsiders to have scored the winners had tended to have recorded at least one success that season, usually in their last 4 runs and had run in the previous 8 weeks. 11 of the last 12 winners had run at least 8 times in their career.

So what are we left with? Quite a few but with 57 runners there were plenty to start with! I’ll make my choice once the final decs and the draw are known but I’m quite liking the chances of Mass Rally from the John Gosden yard at the moment.

Get Ascot out of the way and the following week sees the Newmarket Cambridgeshire meeting and the Arc de Triomphe on the same weekend. I wrote on the blog last week about the Dubai Duty Free Handicap at Newbury being a good trial for the Cambridgeshire so let’s have a look at the race and highlight any horses from it that might warrant respect for Newmarket.

Forte Dei Marmi won the race and was instantly made favourite for the Cambridgeshire but Luca Cumani has since said he definitely won’t be going for the race so we’ll have to look a bit further down the finishing order. We don’t have to look too far though as both the second, Elliptical, and the third, Tepmokea, are entered for the race although the latter may struggle to make the cut. Dane O’Neill looked to have timed his late run to perfection on the runner up and came over 2 lengths clear of the field with the exception of the running on Forte Dei Marmi. It was a fine run and over a furlong less in the Cambridgeshire he must have a great chance at Newmarket. Quotes of 20/1 look very appealing if he makes the line-up. Tepmokea is 50/1 and looks another sure to be suited by the small drop back in distance. If he can squeeze into the race he could be a massive price at the moment.

The 3yo Breakheart ran very well in 5th and is another entered for the Cambridgeshire. He’s currently 33/1 for the race in a fortnights time for anyone looking to retrieve their losses from Saturday. 9th home Changing The Guard is also still in the race (50/1) but is another who may struggle to get in but that isn’t the case for 11th placed finisher Royal Destination who will make the lineup if connections wish to run him. Only trouble is he was well stuffed in the race last year and is set to carry 3lb more this time around although on his revised mark he is in fact 5lb well in. He’s 20/1 for anyone who’s interested.

A few of the also rans from Saturday entered in the Cambridgeshire are 12th home Tartan Gigha, who was runner up in the race last year from a 10lb lower rating but has been woefully out of form since winning at the Derby meeting in June, 16th horse home Thin Red Line, who has struggled in Class 2 handicaps since taking a Class 3 race way back in May and last placed finisher Aattash who had won 4 of his last 5 starts but was found out here by the rise in class, distance and handicap ratings. It will be a tough ask for a 3yo to lead all the way for anyone tempted by the 40/1 on him.

For me the 20/1 Elliptical looks good value and the 50/1 Tepmokea if he makes it into the race.

For the Arc, my plea to Henry Cecil via an email seems to have fallen on deaf ears and Midday is 99% certain to go to the Breeders Cup instead which leaves me scratching around for some value in the race. Despite Matt’s protestations to the contrary I just can’t have Behkabad at 7/2 and I still maintain that Youmzain each way at 20’s is the best option at present. The race does look primed for a shock result and there is a German horse that might provide it. Scalo isn’t quoted by any of the bookmakers which may mean that he won’t be running but I’m going to have a walk into town to see if I can get 100/1 or better on him for a couple of quid. He’s only run 5 times in his career but has managed two Group 3 wins and a Group 2 success so far. He was 3rd favourite for the German Derby but got a ride that quite honestly defied belief. If it wasn’t for the fact that it was such an important race you’d have sworn the jockey was trying to pull the wool over the handicappers eyes and the horse was being set up for a handicap coup. He was last for most of the way, ran wide into the straight and while Royston French was celebrating victory on Buzzword E. Pedroza was weaving through the field as though he had another 2 furlongs to go. Bizarre. Come on Herr Wohler, get him entered and book Tom Queally for the ride.

Finally, it looks like Pathfork will be going to the Breeders Cup to contest the Juvenile Turf as I mentioned last week. His Kentucky based owners obviously wanted to see him race at their local track before selling him to Sheikh Mohammed for a couple of million. Hopefully Mrs Harrington will be sent a few nice yearlings as compensation……

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Sprint Double 33/1 and 14/1………

It might have been a bad weekend for the blog and for Gary but Festival Trends subscribers have been out partying all weekend after we gave both of Saturday’s sprint winners in our Ayr Guide.

First up in the Silver Cup we tipped Misplaced Fortune and COLONEL MAC which meant we had the 33/1 WINNER and 12/1 third and then in the Gold Cup we made REDFORD our likeliest trends winner giving us the WINNER at 14/1. After a Summer of near misses it was great to land such an amazing big price double.

We nearly had the big handicap treble up as well because at Newbury we tipped Tepmokea in the Dubai Duty Free and he finished 3rd at 14/1 having gone to the front 2f out. With Astrophysical Jet also tipped and Temple Meads 1 of 2 to qualify on all the trends in the Mill Reef it really was a fantastic weekend.

If you want to get in on the fun for the rest of the year it’s still only £20 for every Trends Guide until January 1st 2011. Ascot’s big QEII meeting this weekend is our next port of call before we hit Newmarket, Longchamp, Kentucky, Newbury, Cheltenham, Kempton, Chepstow and many more before the end of the year. Subscribe below…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

You’ll also get the 2yo TTS Guide (selections in 4 of the last 5 qualifying races have won) and the Summer Jumps TTS Guide (5/1 winner Kahfre yesterday) completely FREE.

Good luck,
Gavin.

With plenty of big handicaps to get stuck into today I’m not overly confident but for a bit of fun I’ll be doing the following 4 horses in the Saturday Lucky 15…..

Ayr Silver Cup 2.15

Pricewise has messed up the price again and all the early 12/1 on Tiddliwinks has now gone. It was the same story last week in the Portland, where the price crashed from 16/1 into 6’s. In the race itself he went to the front too soon but did well to hang on for fourth. Spencer will need to make his move a bit later today but from a high draw I can see him running very well.

Ayr Gold Cup 3.20

There are so many I could do in this race but at the prices I reckon Noverre To Go is the value at 22/1 with Bet365. The ground, his draw and the form he’s been in recently all point to a big run today. His last two runs have seen him on the wrong side of the course and the ground went against him on his last run at Goodwood in the Stewards Cup. Ross Atkinson takes off 5lb today and I’m very hopeful of him making the frame at the very least.

Dubai Duty Free Handicap 3.05 Newbury

I can’t believe Cumulus Nimbus is 20/1 this morning as he’s been in very good form over this sort of trip throughout the Summer. Forget his last run as he was badly hampered at the 2 furlong pole and Richard Hughes just let him come home in his own time after that. His 4th to Forte Dei Marmi at Sandown is excellent form and should put him in the frame.

World Trophy 3.40 Newbury

Total Gallery came to life at this time last year and after running second in this race went on to lift the Prix De L’Abbaye. He struggled with a Group 1 penalty early in the Season but didn’t have that excuse at Royal Ascot where his run was too bad to be true. If he can bounce back from that run the 14/1 looks good.

Each way Lucky 15

2.15 Ayr Tiddliwinks 8/1
3.20 Ayr Noverre To Go 22/1
3.05 Newbury Cumulus Nimbus 20/1
3.40 Newbury Total Gallery 14/1 (All prices are with Bet365.)

I’ll also be backing Bells Of Peover in the 3.10 Catterick as he looks likely to improve on his 3 runs now he tries handicap company for the first time.

As always do what you like with them; back them, lay them or ignore them!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Continuing on from yesterday’s post I’ve got a couple of races that are always worth looking out for when searching for future winners. The first of which is run at the Newbury meeting tomorrow.

It’s had a few name changes over the years and is now due to be run as the Dubai Duty Free Stakes (Heritage Handicap) or, in simpler terms, the 3.05 Newbury. This is without doubt the best Cambridgeshire Trial run all season but it also throws up tons of winners for the end of this season and beginning of next (not to mention quite a few Dubai Winter and hurdle winners in the meantime.)

With regards to the Cambridgeshire the trick is not to back the winner of the Newbury race, rather one of the runners from further down the field. Tazeez, Formal Decree, Blue Monday and 100/1 shock Cambridgeshire winner Spanish Don were all beaten at Newbury but went on to win at Newmarket whereas recent Dubai Duty Free winners have finished 19-24-23-16-3-6-11 when trying to do the double.

Last years Newbury race went to Almiqdaad who has yet to win again but does try to win the race again tomorrow. However by concentrating on the first 10 home in the race and simply backing them in their next 4 runs you would have had 8 winners at 5/1, 5/2, 13/2, 14/1, 17/2, 7/2, 3/1 and 11/4. Not bad at all. 2008 race winner was Presvis who won by 7 lengths. He showed how he was able to win so easily that day by then winning two handicaps in Dubai that Winter and winning a Group 1 race a couple of starts later. Those immediately behind him at Newbury didn’t show anywhere that level of form over their next few outings but further down the finishing order Night Crescendo was 9th and he won his next two starts at 20/1 and 9/1. In tenth was the future Cambridgeshire winner Tazeez who won that race at 25/1 and then followed up with another win at 9/4 ensuring another profitable year for the race.

2007 gave us amongst others a 12/1 winner. In 2006 Pinpoint won and went on to win the Newbury Spring Cup at 8/1 the following season while the 3rd home was Formal Decree who took the Cambridgeshire on his next start at 9/1 and then won his next two as well for good measure. Star Of Light beat Blue Monday in 2005 and while he couldn’t confirm the form in the Cambridgeshire, when Blue Monday justified 5/1 favouritism, he bounced back to take his next start at 9/1. There were also future winners at 11/2, 5/1, 10/3 and 12/5 lurking in the pack that day. The 2004 race went to Spuradich who was another winner who failed to win in his next four starts. In fact only 1 of the first 10 home that year managed that feat but as he was 9th home Spanish Don he more than compensated for all the losers you would have backed. On his next start he won the Cambridgeshire at 100/1 and then followed up with another win at the slightly shorter odds of 4/1.

2003 winner Navado embarked on a hurdles career that year and didn’t take long to record an 11/2 victory. Further down the field in 8th that day was another horse who would eventually enter the NH scene but that wasn’t until after he, Turbo, had lifted the Doncaster November Handicap as a 25/1 shot. With other winners coming out of that race at 12/1, 5/2 and 9/2 it was another successful year for the Dubai Duty Free Handicap.

With 20 top class handicappers in the race tomorrow it’s definitely a race to jot down for future reference.

The other race I want to mention if you’re looking for plenty of future winners is the Cheltenham Bumper. You probably won’t get very rich backing them all but it’s amazing how many of the runners go on to succeed when sent over hurdles.

Very few horses have run over hurdles from this years race (won by Cue Card), and certainly none of the principles, but the early signs are encouraging as the two that have both finished 2nd. Of those that have continued their career in NH flat races there have been 5 winners already at odds of 11/4, 9/1, evs, 4/5 and 5/1. It’s early days for the race so far but I think it’s looking like a race you want to keep an eye on.

2009 winner Dunguib won his next 5 starts (allbeit at very short odds) to prove himself a very decent horse but those behind him weren’t too bad either as by simply backing the top half of the race finishers on their next 4 starts you would have had a further 19 winners. Incidentally, Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage was 3rd that day at Cheltenham.

When Cousin Vinny won in 2008 there were 23 runners in the race. Amazingly 15 of those 23 runners, including the winner, managed to win within their next 4 starts (17 in next 5 starts) and provided 19 race wins including a 16/1 victory for Genuine Pearl.

2007 was a bumper year (excuse the pun) when Cork All Star took the race. Of the 23 horses to run again from the race 16 won within their next 4 starts and provided 27 races wins in that time. These included a 20/1 Grade 2 winner, a 10/1 winner and future RSA Chase winner Cooldine.

In 2006 while Hairy Molly was doing the business there were a couple of Jonjo O’Neill horses further down the field that have proved themselves better than their finishing position that day suggested. Witchita Linesman and Alberta’s Run were among 16 of the 23 runners that day to win within their next 4 starts which also included 28/1 Pangbourne at the Aintree Festival. 21st placed finisher Flowonlovelyriver has been lightly raced since with just 8 runs in those 4 years but his new connections patience was rewarded in March when he finally obliged at 40/1 in a Chepstow handicap.

All in all, it’s definitely a race you need to keep an eye on for future reference. Check out this years race HERE and look out for the runners when they begin their hurdling careers.

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Gary’s had a go at the impossible Ayr Sprint treble on his tips page but though I’ll have a small go with him I’d rather get stuck into the Newbury card tomorrow. Good luck to him because I think he’s going to need it!

I’ll be back in the morning with an ambitious looking Lucky 15 on the TV races. Until then….

Good luck,
Gavin.

In today’s post I’m going to have a look at a system of picking horses that I sometimes use if I see a suitable race. You’ll often hear racing pundits and experts go on about ‘the form of this-race-or-that is working out well’ or ‘there have been plenty of winners to have come out of the race’ which is great if you’re a Channel 4 presenter with a Degree in hindsight but not so good if you’re an average punter sitting at home watching the telly. If you get the right race though it can be quite a profitable way of betting.

Unfortunately, targetting the right races is quite hard to do.

You may remember me saying after Royal Ascot that I thought the Britannia Handicap might throw up a few future winners. Of course you may not but it doesn’t really matter, the point is that this is just the type of race I like to look at as there were plenty of unexposed 3yo’s in the field and as the big field go out strongly from the start the form of the race is usually quite good. So how would we have got on this year….

Probably the best winner to come out of this years Britannia is Sea Lord who was in fact one of the favourites that day. He’s since won 4 races and was just over 6 lengths behind Cape Blanco in last weeks Irish Champion Stakes. Not bad for a horse that could only finish 8th! The race winner hasn’t done too bad either because after two slightly disappointing runs he bounced back to form at York’s Ebor meeting to win a decent handicap from a rating of 100. Other winners from the race include 4th home Secretive, 5th place King Of Reason, 9th placed Fireback who I managed to talk myself out of betting when he won at Newmarkets July meeting at 12/1 (25/1 in the early prices), 14th placed Cumulus Nimbus at 10/1 and just last week 18th placed finisher Navajo Chief won at Doncaster at 7/1.

All told there have been 11 races won from 62 attempts for an SP level stakes profit of £11.48. Not a brilliant return but a profit none-the-less.

So what other types of races should you look for.

Well, there’s an old saying in racing that the most reliable form is Group 1 form so let’s have a look at the best early season 3yo races and see how we would have got on backing all the runners in their subsequent outings.

The Derby. It’s THE Group 1 of the early Summer and you’d expect it to be full of all the top middle distance 3yo’s.

12 runners went to post this year and though at the time it was considered a poor renewal of the race we did get a very convincing winner in Workforce. Only trouble is he got stuffed next time out in the King George when a hot favourite. The runner up At First Sight has ran twice since and been beaten on both occasions leaving us 3 runs, 3 losses. The third horse home at Epsom was beaten St. Leger favourite Rewilding but at least he won the Great Voltigeur before that as the 6/4 favourite. 4th was Jan Vermeer who’s finished 3-3 in his two races, then came Midas Touch 2-2-2, Al Zir 3, Coordinated Cut 7 and Buzzword 3-1-3. Hooray! We’ve found a winner and a German Derby winner to boot at the rewarding odds of 18/1. Just behind Buzzword at Epsom was Hot Prospect who has also won 1 of his 3 runs since, a class 2 handicap, as a 5/1 2nd favourite. The last 3 home in the Derby have run 5 times between them without success which means that from the 23 runs the Derby field have had since the race, only 3 of the 12 strong field have managed to win.

But those 3 wins from 23 runs do show a profit of +4.5pts to level stakes. Again, not brilliant but it is a profit.

Surely the 2009 Derby must have been a good race with Sea The Stars winning that year? Er, no. The 12 runners ran another 33 times last season and managed 10 wins (including 4 for Sea The Stars) but most were at short odds and you would have lost 4.9pts backing them all.

New Approach’s 2008 Derby was even worse with just 7 wins from 41 assorted runs and a level stakes loss of 12.01 pts. It was a similar story in 2007 when Authorised defeated a big field. 8 wins from 46 runs and another loss of 11.95pts.

General consensus is that the 2006 Derby produced the worst winner in recent times but behind Sir Percy that day were some pretty decent horses who managed to win 11 races between themselves from 53 subsequent runs that Season. Sir Percy may not have won another race in his career but Dylan Thomas, Septimus and Sixties Icon all managed Group 1 success while Papal Bull won two Group 2 races. Even 150/1 outsider and second last finisher Snoqualmie Boy managed to win again. His 33/1 Listed success at Royal Ascot also meant that you would have made a 9.09pt profit by backing all the 2006 Derby runners in all their runs that Season.

All in all though the Derby doesn’t look the best race to be backing every runner blindly in. I think this is mainly due to the notion that the Derby is THE 3yo race and the form of the race should therefore be good. Horses coming on from the race are invariably shorter than they should be and any winners the race does throw up are quite short in price. It’s also interesting that the two years that the Derby was regarded as being a poor renewal are the only two years when you would have made a profit.

So how about the other big Group 1 race for the 3yo Colts, The 2000 Guineas?

19 of Europes best 3yo milers turned up and the race went to French raider Makfi. He’s since ran twice and won once at 7/1 so we’re off to a good start here. You may remember that Dick Turpin was second at Newmarket and in his four subsequent starts he’s managed 1 win at 5/1. His stablemate Canford Cliffs finished 3rd and as he’s won all three starts since we must be showing a profit. Xtension was fourth but he’s not managed a win in his next 3 races so we are left with 5 wins from 12 runs and a LSP of 10.67.

But that’s where the good news ends because those who finished 5th - 19th at Newmarket have since run 38 times between themselves with just a solitary win from Buzzword (18/1) in the German Derby. Let’s try looking at just the placed horses from the race…..

In 2009 Sea The Stars won the first of his 6 Group 1 wins and by backing him along with the next 3 home in the 2000 Guineas on their subsequent starts you would have had 8 wins from 18 runs and a slight loss of 3.3pts to level stakes. In 2008 it was Henrythenavigator who won the Guineas. Backing the winner and the places for that race would have given you 9 winners from 22 runners and a profit of 7.5pts.

Cockney Rebel caused a bit of a shock when winning the Guineas in 2007 and though he followed up in the Irish version that was the only win the top 4 at Newmarket managed that season. 1 win from 12 runs and a loss of 9.5pts. In 2006 George Washington beat that years Derby winner Sir Percy at Newmarket with future Irish Guineas winner Araafa back in fourth. Between the placed horses they managed 4 wins from 15 runs and a LSP of 10.62pts. Another Aiden O’Brien horse won in 2005 when Footstepsinthesand beat two 100/1 outsiders. The winner never ran again but the next three home ran 16 times between themselves and recorded two wins and a +5pts LSP. The 2004 2000 Guineas was a good renewal as the first four home that year contained the future Derby, Irish Derby and Champion Stakes winners. 4 wins from 13 runs and a LSP of 16.87pts.

It’s not conclusive but it does appear that following the first 4 home from the 2000 Guineas has been a way to make some small profits over the last few seasons.

But it’s all a bit late to try this year and by next Season you’ll probably have forgotten about it anyway! So tomorrow I’ll give you two races that throw up lots of winners and are pretty relevant to upcoming events.

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Gary’s posted a little message on his Tips Page and he’ll be back for this weekends Ayr meeting where I know he’s itching to get stuck into the Gold, Silver and Bronze Cups.

Good luck,
Gavin.

 My thoughts on the events from the Doncaster meeting and the weekend’s big races….

1) The top Filly and Mare.

We now know who the best middle distance filly is in Europe. It’s not Snow Fairy, it’s not Sarafina and it’s certainly not Sariska (more on her later). No it’s Midday and hopefully by the end of the Season after a trip to Kentucky for the Breeders Cup she will have been announced as the best filly in the world. Some will argue that Sarafina was given a poor ride yesterday as she sat too far off her pacemaker and was given too much to do but I don’t think it would have made any difference where she was during the race, she wouldn’t have beaten Midday. Tom Queally rode another fine race and was always doing enough to win and we all know after Goodwood Midday will battle to the line if challenged.  She’s now won 5 Group 1 races including her last three runs and finished in the top 3 on every start since the beginning of her 3yo career. In a sub-standard year a crack at the Arc might not be such a bad idea but I fancy connections will stick to their original plan and head Stateside for the easier option of the Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares race. Wherever she runs though I’ll be backing her….

2) The St Leger

 Whoever it was who was first quoted with the expression ‘If it looks too good to be true it probably is’  must have been a punter! I’ve lost count of the number of times I’ve thought I’d found a good thing only to see it run like a crab. The latest in a long line of failures is Rewilding who to me looked the perfect St Leger horse with the perfect profile, perfect jockey and the form to match. But yet again when I pull on my punting boots and get stuck into one it all goes horribly wrong. In fact it’s been a really poor St Leger meeting for me with just Picture Editor providing any respite over the 4 days.

3) Sariska

I’m not going to dwell too much on the subject but I will say that I think it was the right decision to retire her and even though he is knowhere near my favourite jockey you cannot blame Jamie Spencer for her actions. The filly had just had enough of racing and no amount of cajoling from Spencer would have changed her mind and got her out of the stalls. On this occasion the abuse he’s getting on the Forums is totally uncalled for.

4) Pathfork

 I’d imagine that Jessica Harrington breaks out in a cold sweat everytime the phone rings as she must be half-expecting Goldophin to come sniffing for her top 2yo Pathfork. After Saturday’s gutsy win in the National Stakes he’s now 3 wins from 3 and has also claimed the scalp of the top O’ Brien juvenile Zoffany. With that victory he’s been granted entry to the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf and as the owners are Kentucky based he may head Stateside instead of taking in the Dewhurst. One thing’s for sure though, if Aiden O’Brien trained him he’d be 7/2 for next years Guineas not 12/1!

5) Cecil 2yo colts

‘Sir’ Henry may be more famous for his way with the fillies but he’s trained a few decent colts in his time (Le Moss, Reference Point, Twice Over) and it looks like he’s got a couple of live ones for this and next season too. Frankel and Picture Editor both beat the same horse on their debut, Nathaniel, and both look set to play a big part in the end of season 2yo races. Frankel followed up his Newmarket maiden win with a 13 length romp in a conditions race last week but unfortunately most of the gloss was taken off his win as his main danger in the race, Goldophins Farhh, was withdrawn. Still you can only beat what’s put in front of you and he did it easily in a fast time. I’m sure Henry will be keeping them apart for now as he has plenty of options with The Dewhurst, Grand Lodge and Racing Post Trophy all still to come. 

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The Arc

It’s not until you look at the Arc betting that you realise what a poor race it looks set to be this year. That Behkabad is favourite says it all. He won the Prix Neil yesterday beating Planteur but it wasn’t a breathtaking performance and if you take the form with the runner up literally I don’t think the winner has improved any over the Summer. I certainly won’t be backing him at around 7/2. Fame And Glory has been absent since winning a ‘mickey-mouse’ race as the 1-12 favourite in August and the form of his Coronation Cup win is shocking with not one horse that finished behind him that day winning a single race subsequently. You can keep the 4/1 on him too. Planteur is 7/1 but keeps finding one too good. Workforce is also 7/1 but you have to wonder if he’ll make the line-up and even if he does will you see the explosive Derby winner or the pitiful King George also ran. Cape Blanco is next at 10/1 but he’s more likely to go to Newmarket for the Champion Stakes, Midday is 12’s but will probably end up in America, Sarafina is 12/1 but isn’t good enough and St Nicholas Abbey at 12/1 is the biggest joke since Liverpool were considered Premier League challengers this Season.

Then you get to the part of the betting list when you realise that you’ve never even heard of some of these runners. Apres Vous 25/1, Apres Who? more like. Silver Pond 25/1, Victoire Pisa 25/1, Nakayama Festa 25/1. I’ve never heard of any of them. I have heard of another 25/1 shot, Duncan, though I prefer to call him Dun-can’t. Yes he won the Prix Foy yesterday but anyone who saw (or backed) him at Goodwood won’t be backing him again in a hurry. Byword (16/1) has had his limitations exposed since Royal Ascot and was well beaten behind Duncan yesterday. Snow Fairy is 33/1 but is another who hasn’t improved much since the early Summer.

Which leaves us with Youmzain who surely must have a fantastic chance of finishing in the frame yet again this year. There’s not much 25/1 left but at 1/4 odds each way he looks by far and away the best prospect of a pay out at this stage. That’s 2nd place sorted, now if I can just persuade Henry to run Midday I might also have the winner….

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I’ll be back tomorrow with a post about following the runners from a specific race and whether or not it’s a profitable way of betting.

Until then,

Good luck,
Gavin.

As promised I have another free trends guide for the weekend. It covers the Portland Handicap from tomorrow’s card at Doncaster

http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/portland.pdf

Simply click on the link for direct access to the guide. No sign-up and no card details required. One click FREE access.

I know it’s a 22 runners 5f handicap but I’m confident of a good run from our selections.
At around the 16/1 mark they’re worth backing each way.

Good luck,
Gavin.

The stats I researched didn’t do us much good yesterday but undetered I’ll try again….

2.00 Doncaster Lejaam (John Dunlop runner who ideally should be under 10/1 if we were to back it)

2.35 Doncaster Spanish Duke (another John Dunlop runner which is pretty much certain to be under 10/1)

3.10 Doncaster Forjatt (Frankie Dettori’s only mount for an outside yard in a Class 1 or 2 non handicap)

3.45 Doncaster Dyna Waltz (John Gosden 3yo running in a Class 1 race)

4.20 Doncaster Intrusion (Richard Fahey 2yo Filly who ran in the last 21 days)

4.55 Doncaster Queen of Mean (another Gosden 3yo running in a Class 1 race)

Which works out very nicely as we have, potentially, one horse in each of the first 6 races and as I have a horse I really fancy  in the 7th we have the whole card covered!

He’s Abraham Lincoln and he’s a sprinter I’ve backed a couple of times this season. He started off his career with Aiden O’Brien and actually ran in the top Group 1 Sprints as a 4yo. Although that was a little out of his league he was rated 107 back then and as he gets to race off just 86 here he does look very well handicapped at present. It’s his lowest ever handicap rating and if he can recapture some of the form he showed at the beginning of the season (2nd at Chester and at Ripon off 87) he’ll be competitive today. On his last run things didn’t pan out too well for him as he was stopped in his tracks twice just as he was making a challenge but he stayed on well and was beaten 4 1/2 lengths in the end.

I reckon 16/1 is a good each way bet.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’ll begin by apologising to all those readers who downloaded the free trends guide last weekend for the Sprint Cup. It wasn’t our best ever result and tipping a hot favourite like Starspangledbanner before seeing it run like that is particularly disappointing. I’ve a good mind to leave these Group 1 sprints alone next year as they really are impossible to work out.

It would have been impossible to select the winner from a trends point of view though as he was only the second 7yo winner in the races history. In fact he was only the third winner of the race to be aged 6 or over which goes to show what a trends busting result it really was. Hopefully a few of you were able to recoup some of the losses with Laaheb in the September Stakes which we did manage to tip.

If it hasn’t put you off the trends guides completely I’ll be giving away another race later in the week.

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Doncaster

After a pretty poor couple of weeks on the racing front things are about to change for the better tomorrow with the start of Doncaster’s St Leger meeting. This kickstarts the end of season influx of quality racing. In the next few months we can look forward to Ascot’s September meeting (scene of Frankie Magnificent 7 all those years ago), The Ayr Gold Cup, Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch cards, The Arc, The Breeders Cup, The Racing Post Trophy and all those wonderful big field Newmarket 2yo races. Bring it on!

But first it’s Doncaster where I’ve been doing a little bit of trainer and jockey research…..

And what better place to start than Frankie Dettori who absolutely loves this meeting. Mind you, the punters love him here too because if you had simply backed him on every ride since 2004 you would have had 15 winners from 73 rides and shown a level stakes profit of +£11.58. He’s had at least 2 winners every year over that period which makes for pretty decent reading.

But if you forget backing him in handicaps and concentrate solely on his rides in Class 1 & 2 races you would have had 12 winners from 42 rides and made a LSP of £32.08.

He has Group Therapy (3.10) and Al Zir (4.20) tomorrow.

You could even just back the colts and geldings to improve your profit rate to +£34.33 (9 winners from 26 rides at 34.6%) and then forget the Saeed Bin Suroor horses to improve your strike rate to 54.5% (6 winners from 11 rides).

Those 6 winners for outside stables have won at 8/1, 8/1, 10/11, 20/1, 7/2 and 15/2 and makes Group Therapy look an attractive bet in tomorrows 3.10.

He’s trained by Jeremy Noseda who also has a good record at this meeting having trained 5 winners from 28 runners since 2004 (17.8%). But you can forget all his horses that race at a mile or further as all 10 of these runners have been beaten. This leaves 5 winners from 18 (27.8%) and a profit of £12.25.

Another trainer with similar stats to Jeremy Noseda is John Dunlop who has had 5 winners from 27 runners to show a small profit of +£2.15. But all 9 of his fillies and mares have been beaten and all his runners starting over 10/1 have failed too.

So by just backing the fancied colts and geldings he runs you would have had those 5 winners from just 11 runners and made a nice £18.15 level stakes profit. He has a few interesting runners later in the week.

John Gosden doesn’t do too badly at this meeting either having sent out 4 winners from 28 runners. However all these winners have been in class 1 or 2 and were all 2 or 3yo’s. If we had backed all of these types of horses since 2004 we would have 4 winners with 7 losers and made £18.83 to level stakes. Prizefighting (4.20) and Mass Rally (4.50) are of interest tomorrow.

That should make a nice patent tomorrow: Group Therapy (3.10) Prizefighting (4.20) and Mass Rally (4.50)

Top Northern trainer Richard Fahey has really struggled at this meeting with just 3 winners since 2004 from the 46 runners the stable have sent out. However 2 of these winners were 2yo fillies and from just 6 similar types in this period it would have given you a +£11.00 LSP.

Birdie Belle (2.00) and Barefoot Lady (2.35) will be looking to improve those figures tomorrow but before rushing out to win your fortune on them, a word of warning: Beware the Fahey entries who haven’t had a recent run as all of his 27 runners not to have raced in the last 3 weeks have been beaten. With only 5 getting placed it looks like on balance it’s best to leave those two alone.

While we’re on the subject of leaving horses alone. How about avoiding these runners?….

- Tim Easterby handicap runners: 0 winners from 27 runners and just 4 placed since 2004.
(Mariachi Man 2.00, Grissom and Hazelrigg 5.20)

- Kevin Ryan runners in class 3 or lower races: 0 from 17 (7 placed)
(Oldjoesaid 5.20)

- Clive Brittain in class 1-3 races: 0 from 25 (3 placed)
(Planet Waves 2.00)

- Andrew Balding horses that ran in the last month (31 days): 0 from 18 (3 placed)
(Catalyze 2.00 & White Devil 4.50)

- Brian Smart runners in Class 1-3 races: 0 from 24 (5 placed)
(Moorhouse Lad & Spin Cycle 3.10)

You could of course argue that it just means these trainers are due a change of luck in these types of race and you should therefore back them.

 That’s what makes horse racing such a fun sport to try and work out!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Wow, what a busy week. No sooner had I returned (dejected) from playing poker in Nottingham then I was off to London with the missus for a couple of days all to ourselves. A bit of shopping, a  lot of eating and drinking plus a West End show for good measure, Good Times.

Back from London and it was off to Bristol for my annual Calendar Club training day zzZZZZ. 7 hours stuck with Calendar Clubs answer to David Brent. Bad Times

I got back 2 hours ago to pack again for one last weekend down in Devon before Dylan goes back to school and I go back to work. Terrible Times.

Which gives me just about enough time to try and work out an each way Lucky 15 for us this weekend. It didn’t go too badly last week with a 14/1 winner, 7/1 short head second and 20/1 and 7/2 thirds. A repeat of that would certainly do me so here goes…..

 2.30 Haydock: STRIKE UP THE BAND. Finally he’s found some form! It’s taken a massive drop in the weights for him to get competitive again but his 3rd on Monday was a step in the right direction and off the same mark here he must go close. Take the 10/1 that is available with most firms.

3.05 Haydock: KANSAI SPIRIT. The stable’s on fire at the moment and I fully expect this 4yo to take the step up in class, and another big hike in the weights, well in his stride. He looked very impressive at Newbury last time out and 1m6f looks ideal. 5/1.

3.35 Haydock: DONCASTER ROVER. He’s got a lot to find with Regal Parade on Newbury running this Summer but some of his form would give him a real shout here (3rd to Equiano, 2nd to Main Aim and 3rd to Premio Loco) and with William Buick onboard the 25/1 looks way too big. The Sprint Cup has had it’s fair share of shocks over the years and it doesn’t usually go to one of the top sprinters of the Season so I’m willing to take a chance on this big outsider. He also scores fairly well on the Trends which you can read all about later in the Post.

2.00 York (SUNDAY): SMART STEP.  He’s a 2yo I’ve been following who I’ve been waiting for to make his debut in a Nursery. His form figures look terrible but his last run was very eyecatching and I confidently expect him to show great improvement for his first run in a handicap. I’m not sure what price we’ll get but I doubt he’ll be the 100/1 he was on his last run at York.

EACH-WAY LUCKY 15

STRIKE UP THE BAND
KANSAI SPIRIT
DONCASTER ROVER
SMART STEP (SUNDAY)

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

It’s the Haydock Sprint Cup this weekend and I’ve got all the Trends, Stats, Facts and Figures for this Group 1 race. I’ve also got some Bonus trends for three other big races being run this weekend at Kempton and Leopardstown.

And the good news is that you can have them all for FREE. Simply click the link below to go directly to the Guide.

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1440&i=l17

Again there’s no sign-up, no details required and absolutely no catch whatsoever…..

But if you like the trends and want to sign up for the full Festival Trends Season (that runs until January 1st 2011) then I’m offering the service for just £20!

That’s right! £20 for every trends guide until January 1st 2011 starting with Haydock today. Then it’s The Doncaster St Leger meeting next week followed by The Ayr Gold Cup, Newbury, Ascot September meeting, Newmarket, Breeders Cup, Longchamp, Cheltenham, Newbury, Kempton with many more in between. £20 for EVERY guide!

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Offer ends Midnight on Monday.

Good luck,
Gavin.