Monthly Archives: August 2010

The weather may be better than is usual for a Bank Holiday but some things never change, the racing is as bad as ever! After the success of my each way Lucky 15 on Saturday I was planning on having another go today but I just can’t find 4 horses that I fancy.

In fact there’s only one horse I’ll be backing today and that’s Webbow. He runs in the 4.10 Ripon and with the eye catching jockey booking of in-form Kieren Fallon he must have a great chance of finally getting back into the winners enclosure.

The busiest Monday of the year and this pile of rubbish is the best racings rulers can come up with. To make matters worse Zulu isn’t even on the telly this afternoon. Oh well, it looks like an afternoon in the park playing football with Dylan….

Good luck,
Gavin.

I won’t be around this weekend as I’m on the train to Nottingham to play in the Main Event of the grandly named World Championship of Amateur Poker. The missus bought my tournament entry as a birthday present and as she threw in the train ticket (I’ve got to pay the 1st Class upgrade myself though) and hotel room I’m basically freerolling. It’s a very long time since I was last in Nottingham (it was probably when that Tunes advert was on the telly with the bloke all bunged up asking for a ‘first class ticket to dottingham..’) and I’m really looking forward to it. The tournament is being held in Europes largest poker room Dusk ‘Til Dawn which by all accounts is an amazing venue.

It’s a three day event that finishes on Monday so all being well I won’t be back posting until Tuesday when I’ll let you know how I got on. Or, you can follow my progress from the APAT website which as well as having regular Blog updates should have a live feed as well………

Live feed: http://www.apat.com/
Updates: http://www.apat.com/forum/index.php?board=15.0

I’ve emailed Betfair to see if they’ll be offering a betting market on the tournament as I fancy having a few quid on myself at 999 but failing that I’ll just have to make the top 40 to win some prizemoney. With no big name professionals in the field it should make for a slightly easier and interesting few days….

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It looks like the weather has played havoc with the racing this weekend with small fields looking the order of the day. It is difficult though to sympathise with owners who complain about the lack of prize money when just 4 horses turn up for an £80k race! In fact the two feature races at Goodwood today can boast over £100k in prizemoney yet only 11 horses are entered for them both. If that isn’t a disgraceful waste of money then I don’t know what is.

The fact of the matter is, and whatever your views on the subject, British racing is funded by the Levy. This is money raised from British based bookmakers who pay depending on their profits over the previous 12 months. The more punters bet (and lose) the more British racing benefits. I don’t suppose when the feature race of the day is a 4 runner Group 2 race it’s going to spark punters into betting that much. I would imagine quite a few punters in betting shops at 3.05 when the Celebration Mile takes place will not be backing in that race and instead put their money on some cartoon race, in a slot machine/roulette machine or back a greyhound. Bookmakers don’t have to contribute to the Levy on their profits for any of those three scenarios.

That’s always assuming that anyone can be bothered to actually go to the bookmakers for a Saturday afternoon of punting on this kind of drivel. They’re more likely to stay at home and back online with a company who have moved off shore to avoid being legally obliged to contribute to the Levy.

Your average punter likes a big field, competitive handicap to get stuck into. For obvious reasons, bookmakers also like big field, competitive handicaps (that’s why they sponsor most of them!). Owners and trainers obviously like these types of races otherwise they wouldn’t be ‘big field’ competitive handicaps. So why don’t we have more of these types of races? I’ve no idea but you could try emailing ‘Racing for Change’ and asking them why they don’t promote ‘levy friendly’ races instead of 4 runner Group 2 races where half the field wouldn’t even carry top weight in a 0-110 handicap. I mean it wouldn’t be so bad if the four runners included one of the star milers of the season. Surely there are more than 4 milers in Europe who are rated above 110 and like soft ground?

 I’ll just say one more thing on the subject before finishing my rant, it wouldn’t matter what kind of going you got, what course you ran it at, on what day or what distance , if you put an £80,000 handicap on the card you would get plenty of runners and plenty of ‘Levy friendly’ turnover.

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And it’s the handicap’s I’ll be having a bet in today. I’m having an each way Lucky 15 on these three at Newmarket….

2.15 WAABEL – This is a very tough race and I’m taking a bit of a chance by backing a maiden but his run last time out was very good. He just went down by a neck to Kalk Bay (who has since won a handicap by 2 1/2 lengths off 74) with 7 lengths back to the 3rd. The 4th horse that day was beaten 14 lengths yet won a Wolverhampton maiden last time out by 13 lengths! Waabel gets to race here from a mark of 77 and with Hayley Turner on board looks a bit of value at 20/1.
4.30 ANGUS NEWZ – It’s been 2 years since she last won a race and she’s not getting any younger but there’s no denying that she is superbly handicapped at present. She’s a multiple Listed race winner yet today runs off a handicap mark of only 78. The drop back to 5f, the soft ground and the eye-catching booking of William Buick all add up to a cracking each way bet at 14/1 (Corals)
5.00 SHAREDAH – It’s difficult to look past Sir Michael Stoute’s Sharedah in the last even with Richard Hills riding. He won well at Newbury last time on softish ground and a reproduction of that form will make him hard to beat.
 
plus one from Beverley.

4.05 SELECT COMMITTEE – simply because Gary tells me it’s his best bet of the week.

I’ll be back on Sunday with a Trends Guide for the Ripon 2yo Trophy.

Until then….
Good luck,
Gavin.

It seems the Sariska debacle has readers split into two distinct camps (I imagine it depends whether you backed her or not!) with those of you who think bookmakers should have returned stakes on her and those who believe that coming out of the stalls is part and parcel of flat racing and therefore you’ve lost your money fair and square.

As I said on Tuesday, I’m in the latter camp as I think you have to draw the line somewhere as to when a horse is actually taking part in a race and ‘under starters orders’ is the logical place otherwise where do you go next? A horse leaving the stalls and immediately unseating the jockey? It’s very unlucky if you backed Sariska but navigating the stalls is just another ‘obstacle’ to overcome in a race.

I would just like to clear up any mis-understanding you may have about my comments regarding Paddy Power. I applaud them (and any other bookmaker who made the offer) for returning all stakes and obviously anyone betting with them has done well to get their money back. It was a fantastic concession by a bookmaker renown for such decisions.

….But don’t for one minute think they did it out of the kindness of their heart. They took a business decision that the publicity they would gain from returning bets on a well fancied runner in a high profile race would outweigh the cost. Ladbrokes, Hills and the rest of them did not.

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I had a pretty poor York myself and after a bad day on the Tuesday I was always behind and chasing my losses. I did get off to a promising start though with £20ew on Judge and Jury and £40 Rewilding but £40 Satin Love, £80 Twice Over, £25ew Sir Lunchalot and £50ew Almiqdaad wiped out those early winnings.

I also had to spend the afternoon doing the ‘Gavin and Stacey’ tour in Barry Island for one of Dylan’s friends who had come up from Devon to stay with us for a few days. Anyone who’s been to Barry lately will know that an afternoon there is about as much fun as watching Twice Over getting mugged on the line. If I see another T-Shirt/fridge magnet/tea towel/baseball cap or any other piece of tat with ‘what’s occurin’ written on it I’m going to scream. A game of Bingo with the kids in Nessa’s arcade was followed by lunch in ‘Gavin and Stacey’s’ favourite chip shop (I kid you not) which was a particular joy as episode after episode was played on a continuous loop. How I laughed. Move over Chris Moyles, James Corden is officially now my least favourite person on the telly.

Another good start on the Wednesday when my £10ew The Fonz won the first, Happy Days indeed! Now that was a great TV programme spoilt only by introducing Robin Williams and Mork and Mindy to the world. He’s another who would make it in my Top 5 least favourite people on the telly. (1. James Corden 2. Chris Moyles 3. Sharon Osbourne 4. Robin Williams 5. David Schwimmer)

My good run didn’t last too long though as £20 Illustrious Blue, £20 Crown Prosecutor, £30ew Fortuni, £10ew Black Moth and £40 Gobama along with a £50 Placepot perm all went down the pan and meant another losing day.

I’d been suffering from food poisoning at the start of the week (it must have been something I ate) and although I’d now got over that I’d now done something to my back and was in agony unless I was lying down. Walking was proving really troublesome but my biggest problem was that I had to take Dylan’s friend back home to Devon. We decided to take the train which seemed the best idea given the state of my back and that I was walking like Quasimodo. I didn’t half get some strange looks from the other passengers as the missus struggled to get on the train with three suitcases as I just stood and watched.

Thanks to the wonders of modern technology and an intermittent mobile signal I was able to place my bets for the day via my laptop. It only took the 45 minutes from Cardiff to Bristol Temple Meads to place my two wagers. My mobile provider boasts a 98% coverage of the UK which can only mean the 2% not covered just happens to be any bit of Britain with a train track on it. You’d probably get better reception on the top of Mount Snowdon. A £5 Lucky 15 on Maqaasid, Snow Fairy, Proponent and Cape To Rio with £25ew Perfect Blossom in the last had me wishing I was with a mobile company with 97% UK coverage.

 The 3 hours spent on the train did however give me plenty of time to convince myself that I couldn’t let Midday run without any of my hard earned on her. So while my mum ferried the family back to hers in the car I decide to walk an alternative route via William Hills. Unfortunately the missus decided to walk with me and with her peering over my shoulder I only put £40 of the holiday spending money on her instead of the intended £80. Ah well, a winners a winner.

The missus was off to meet a friend on the Friday so it meant I got to spend the afternoon in Ladbrokes, The Tote, Betfred and William Hill’s. Can you believe that a small town like Paignton has those four betting shops within 200 yards of each other? Ridiculous. In the 3 hours of freedom I was granted I visited all 4 shops in a vain attempt to find my ‘lucky’ shop. By 5pm it had become apparent that this was probably located in Torquay.

I’ll spare myself the embarrassment of listing all my bets (many of which I can’t remember anyway) but suffice to say it was complete carnage. From my first bet and nap of the day Green Lightning to the last Park View I only got to visit the payout counter twice. £20 Rio De La Plata and £20ew Becausewecan. Total losses for the day were in the region of £200…….

To top it all off I also had the misfortune of running into one of my old customers from our betting shop who couldn’t wait to tell me he had £2ew Sole Power in the Nunthorpe because he had eaten Dover sole for tea the previous night! It’s the only way anyone could possibly have backed that winner and just goes to show why we never made much money from our betting shops, we had the biggest bunch of luckboxes in history betting with us.

I’ve just had a Cadbury’s chocolate bar for my lunch so I’m off to back Chocolate Caramel in the 4.10 Ayr…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

since I last posted due to a combination of food poisoning, cancelled trains, Gary’s birthday, school holiday’s and two trips to Devon in the space of 4 days. But I’m back now and I should be able to string a few posts together this week before shooting off again at the weekend to play in the Amateur Poker Championships in Nottingham. I’m really looking forward to that and will post a website address later in the week for anyone wanting to track my progress in the tournament.

That’s all to come but today I’m going to have a look back at the main talking points from last week……

Sariska

I didn’t back her and with Midday winning I didn’t lose any money on the race so it’s probably easier for me to say this but bookmakers were quite right in not refunding stakes on Sariska. She went in the stalls, she came under orders and then decided not to race, simple as that. The horse wasn’t interfered with in anyway and the stalls opened normally. She just couldn’t be bothered to run and if you backed her you lost your money just as if you back a horse that falls or pulls itself up. You have to draw the line somewhere as to when a horse is deemed a runner and ‘under starters orders’ is the correct and obvious place. Just because Paddy Power, who are never shy at promoting their business no matter the cost, refunded stakes on her doesn’t mean it was the right decision.  Remember, if the stakes were refunded on Sariska this would mean a Rule 4 deduction for all those who backed Midday and that certainly wouldn’t have been fair.

Sole Power

It’s results like these that question whether there’s any point in form study. You might as well stick a pin in the paper sometimes. Two wins on the Dundalk all weather track and completely stuffed everytime he’d been raced in Group company isn’t form you look for when sorting out a Group 1 race. If I’d have had 12 picks in the race he’d have been my 13th choice! Okay, Equiano got bumped and Starspangledbanner needs a minimum of 6 furlongs but even without those two in the race he’d have been a 100/1 chance and rightly so. I’ll personally be putting it down as a freak result and won’t be rushing to back him next time out, no matter where he goes.

Trainers Championship

After Rip Van Winkle’s win in the International Stakes last week Aiden O’Brien has forced himself into contention for this years trainers championship which for all intents and purposes is now a 3 ‘horse’ race between Stoute, Hannon and O’Brien. The Championship is decided on win and place prizemoney earned throughout the season and Sir Michael Stoute has so far amassed £2,583,685 to lead his two rivals by £99,429 and £268,800 respectively. With Sir Michael Stoute’s main horses Harbinger and Workforce out for the count and Zacinto having lost the plot it’s difficult to see where the reigning champ will find the necessary ammunition to maintain his lead. Canford Cliffs, Dick Turpin, Paco Boy along with a stable full of 2yo talent will ensure Richard Hannon’s challenge will be a strong and sustained one. There are plenty of big prizes still to play for this season and with quite a few very valuable 2yo sales races coming up it’s not hard to see why the bookies make Hannon an odds on shot to win the Trainers Championship. Unsurprisingly, Stan James’s offer of 11-10 yesterday didn’t last long and the best odds now available is their 8-11. That still looks good to me….

Pathfork

After Saturday’s Futurity romp Pathfork is now the 8/1 second favourite for next years 2000 Guineas but I can’t help thinking that if he were trained by a certain Aiden O’Brien he would be a lot shorter than that. For me, he’s the best 2yo seen out this season and Jessica Harrington will do well to hold on to him as I’m sure Sheikh Mohammed has already got the cheque book out for a horse he bred. He’s now won a maiden at the Curragh, of which past winners include Teofilio, New Approach and Sea The Stars, and the Group 2 Futurity which has a recent roll of honour that includes St Jovite, Giant’s Causeway, Hawk Wing, Teofilo, New Approach and Cape Blanco. The horse he beat on Saturday was the same horse that split Zoffany and Strong Suit in the Phoenix Stakes and as he beat him more convincingly than Zoffany did the form is rock solid. With the exception of Mafki all recent 2000 Guineas winners had seen a racecourse by now and for me Pathfork is the one they all have to beat. I just hope Godolphin don’t buy him, ship him to Dubai and ruin his chances of Newmarket glory!

American Grade 1 turf horses

If ever you needed confirmation on just how poor the best American turf horses are compared to their European counterparts it was given in the Arlington Million on Saturday. That their best turf horse Gio Ponti could get beat by Debussy illustrates the gap in class between the two continents. I take nothing away from William Buick, who rode a perfect race to nail the US champ close home, but even he would be hard pressed to think Debussy was anything other than a half decent Group 2/3 performer in Europe. He was 25/1 and well beaten behind Byword in a Group 1 at Royal Ascot and again beaten in a Group 2 behind Summit Surge at York. His form is a long way behind the best on these shores yet was still able to put the best America can muster firmly in his place. The Breeders Cup Turf looks to be European bound yet again…

I’ll be back tomorrow with a brief look at my betting failures last week,

Good luck,
Gavin.

It wasn’t such a good day for the blog tips but I guess that’s what you get for back big priced horses and Richard Hills mounts!

It was a good day for the trends though with both Rewilding and Rip Van Winkle being tipped in our guide although I would have preferred it if Twice Over had won. It was an incredibly exciting race and half a furlong out I thought he’d got it but that Murtagh knows where the line is and the way he got Rip into full stride and nick the race was (almost) a joy to watch.

Maybe it was the curse of stall 1 that got Twice Over beat. Let me explain.

When I was researching the trends guide for this meeting it became apparent that stall 1 doesn’t have a great record at this meeting so I thought I’d do a bit of digging to see just how bad it was. It’s bad….

Last year the meeting was extended to include 25 races over four days but this didn’t help those hapless runners coming from Stall 1 as only one horse managed to win from the lowest draw. We had to wait until the fourth day of the meeting before Mark Johnston’s Businessman led all the way at 13/2 to overcome ‘the curse’. It was the same story in 2007 (2008 meeting was abandoned) when there was just 1 winner from the bottom stall. That was Derby winner Authorized who won the International Stakes as the 6/4 favourite.

In 2006 stall 1 won, yes you guessed it, just once from the 21 races staged. That was 9/2 shot Trick or Treat who won the last race of the meeting, a 1m6f handicap contested by just 7 runners which he won by a shorthead.

We cover 10 races for our trends guides and I have draw data going back to around 1996 for most of the races. They cover most race distances and make interesting reading.

In the Acomb stakes, run over 7f, there’s been just one winner from stall 1 since 1996 and that was the O’Brien hotpot Hemingway who won at 8/13 in 2000. With an average field size of around 7 runners that’s not a very good strike rate and yesterday’s stall 1 hope in the race was Rigolleto who finished stone cold last at 10/1.

In the Great Voltigeur there hasn’t been a winner from draw 1 since at least 1996 although that stall did provide the runner up 5 times between 2003-2009. Harris Tweed had the worst of the draw in yesterday’s race and finished 7th of 10 at 12/1.

We’ve already mentioned that Autorized managed to defy the draw to win the International but he was the first to do so since 1996 when another 6/4 favourite won a 6 runner renewal from the one box. He was Halling which goes to show you the kind of horse required to defy the ‘coffin box’. In the last 11 years, apart from Autorized, only two horses from the bottom stall have even made the frame despite an average field size of just 8. One of those was Twice Over yesterday.

So what about today’s races?

It certainly doesn’t get much better in our first feature race of the day, The Lonsdale Cup, as Stall 1 hasn’t won since at least 1996 and hasn’t had a horse placed since 2001. Anyone still fancy Free Agent in today’s race?

Onto the Gimcrack where Trade Storm will be looking to become the first horse to win the race from stall 1 since 1997. With the last 7 runners from that stall failing to make the frame he’s certainly got his work cut out today.

Which leaves us with the feature race on today’s card the Ebor. Things aren’t looking good for Desert Sea in today’s race as the last winner to come from Stall 1 in the Ebor was Henry Cecil’s Tuning in 1998, the 9/2 favourite. With all of the last 11 runners from that draw failing to even make the top 3 it’s a tough ask for Neil Callan’s mount this year.

Tomorrow we cover the Lowther Stakes where Bint Allayl was the last winning Stall 1 horse in the race. That was back in 1998 and at 15/8 it probably wasn’t that much of a shock given what a class filly she was. In the Yorkshire Oaks only 5/4 favourite Petrushka has won from the lowest stall since 1997 and in fact is the only horse that has been placed from that stall in the intervening years.

Friday’s races include the Melrose Handicap which has fared better than most races over the last decase as it’s provided the winner twice since 1999. As it’s run over 1m6f that could explain things a bit and both winners were from the top 3 in the betting. Our other race, the Nunthorpe, hasn’t been quite as successful with only 5/2 favourite Nuclear Debate managing to defy Stall 1 since 1996. He won in 2000 and since then only one horse has managed to make the frame in the race from the lowest draw.

So there you have it, not a comprehensive analysis of stall 1 runners but definite food for thought with few recent winners coming from the dreaded draw and most of those well fancied favourites and class acts. In yesterday’s 6 races the one stall finished 14th of 15, 7/7, 7/10, 2/9, 3/15 and 14/18. The curse continues…..

I’ve got to take Dylan to football training so I’ll have to come back later with the Placepot Perm.

Good luck,
Gavin

What a cracking looking card for the first day of the York meeting. Having got all my Royal Ascot losses back (and a few quid more besides ;-) ) on Shakespearean at the weekend I’m all set for a good few days punting.

Gary’s had a look at the opening Sprint on the card and I’ve had a look at the closing two handicaps to try and find a few lively outsiders for us to back…. 

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I thought we were a bit unlucky not to win the Great St Wilfred on Saturday with Signor Peltro. Tony Culhane left his challenge far too late despite looking to be travelling best of any of them 2F out. Never mind, we now look forward to a great card at York and it’s the first race of the meeting that I’m interested in, a nice 17 runner 5 furlong handicap to get stuck into.
 
Barney Macgrew: won this last year, now racing off 8lb higher mark, very tough to repeat last years result and not for me 2/5
 
Captain Dunne: very speedy 5F specialist who has run well in Group company as well as winning a handicap earlier this season, one or two better handicapped at the moment and the weight may stop him here  2/5
 
Sir Gerry: won twice this season both over 6F, this trip will be on the sharp side for him and I will be looking elsewhere 1/5
 
Hamish McGonagall: been in cracking for again this season wining twice over 5F, loves big fields and was only caught close home in this race last year, just a bit too high in the weights for me. 3/5
 
Damien: his sole success was over 6F on his race course debut, this trip is sure to be too quick for him so not for me here.  2/5
 
Quest For Success: ran a blinder in the Great St Wilfred on Saturday to be 5th from what was the worst possible draw in stall 1, but that was over 6F and he was staying on at the end, interesting that they have run him again so quickly and definitely one for the short list.  4/5
 
Glamorous Spirit: ran them ragged in a Group 3 over 5F in Ireland but not been in same form since and handicap mark has shot up as a result.  1/5
 
Judge N Jury: now on a very attractive mark and only 8-11 to carry, could well surprise at very attractive odds, but I would like too see a revival in form before I wager in again, the ground is ideal too but stall 16 not so great.  3/5
 
Hotham: been in good form this season winning twice here, seems to prefer 6F nowadays and may just struggle in this company. Not for me today.  2/5
 
Tabaret: won nicely a couple of days ago running down the middle of the track on his own under top weight, that was in first time blinkers which are kept on here so need to work again, got a good draw here. 3/5
 
Strike Up The Band: was in cracking form this time last year, but over 2 years since he last won and current form not been encouraging, has the best trainer for this type of race and could easily lead all the way. 4/5
 
Cheveton: a quality 5F sprinter when the ground is riding soft,has been tried over 6F this season but to no avail, looked to be coming right back to best when 3rd at Ayr recently one for the short list.  4/5
 
Haajes: funny character who always runs well but doesn’t get his head in front as often as he should, won at Hamilton back in July but this quality of opposition looks too hot for him.  3/5
 
Saucy Brown: a very frustrating season so far has all the ability and is now very well handicapped, but has been too disappointing to follow just now, but one that is more than capable of romping home if all falls into place. 3/5
 
Oldjoesaid: now too well handicapped to ignore, has stall 9 so will get all the cover he requires and can go where the pace is, has been a long time since he won but worth taking a chance with.  5/5
 
Rasaman: has won twice this season since I tipped him back in May, is very capable but this might just be too classy a race for him.  2/5
 
Walvis Bay: a 3yo who is improving and looks to be a head of the handicapper at the moment, but these high quality and ultra competitive handicaps do take a lot of winning and that’s why I like to oppose 3 year olds, stall 14 not ideal either.  3/5
 
Selection: OLDJOESAID  2pt ew 25/1
Danger: STRIKE UP THE BAND 1pt ew 20/1
Tricast: CHEVETON

In the Nursery (4.05 York) I’m quite fancying the chances of Sir Luncalott to run well at a big price. He looks like a horse who was put away for a handicap campaign after running in the early season juvenile races. After winning his maiden at the fourth attempt he reappeared 2 months later in a hot nursery at Goodwood but ran creditably in 4th weakening only in the last half furlong. That race was over 7f whereas today he runs over 6f and with an able 7lb claimer on board plus a recent run under his belt his current odds of 33/1 look too big to me.

Selection: Sir Lunchalott at 33/1

And in the last (4.40) I’m relying on Richard Hills to have learnt from his mistakes at Goodwood and give Almiqdaad a better ride here. It’s probably asking a bit much but this race doesn’t look anywhere near as good as that Goodwood race and Michael Jarvis has been banging in the winners of late. I expect a big run from him today. Don’t let me down Richard Hills!!

Selection: Almiqdaad 11/1

I’ll be having an each way patent on the three (Oldjoesaid, Sir Lunchalott and Almiqdaad) but as always, do what you feel is best with them….

BACK THEM, LAY THEM or IGNORE THEM!

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Placepot

And finally, let’s have a go at the Placepot today with this ‘little‘ perm….

11-12-15 / 4-6 / 1-7 / 6-8 / 3-6-14 / 2-3-4-15 = 288 bets

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Festival Trends and Summer Special

It was a good weekend for the Festival Trends guides with 2 nice winners from the 3 races we covered at 3/1 and 3/1.

We also had a good week over at the Summer Special after a slight dip in form following Glorious Goodwood. We gave 7 winners between Thursday and Sunday at SP odds of Evs, 7/4, 2/1, 11/4, 11/4, 4/1 and 9/2. The service is up over 15 points to starting price since it began and you can check out our full results here….. http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/sumspecresults.html

York begins today and we’ll be covering 11 races over the 4 days including the Ebor Handicap on Wednesday where we have a very strong trends horse running for us. You can get every trends guide until the end of the year PLUS all the Summer Special Guides which includes the York Festival Pointers for the bargain price of just £29.95….

Instant access from here….. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

To recap: For the one-off payment of £29.95 you get every Trends Guide until January 1st 2011 (York, Doncaster, Ayr, Goodwood, Ascot, Newmarket, The Arc, Breeders Cup, Newbury, Cheltenham, Kempton and many, many more), The 2yo TTS Guide, The Summer Jumps TTS Guide (latest runner won by 10 lengths at 4/1), Horses to Follow list, York Festival Pointers (there are 5 negative horses for Tuesday) and Doncaster St Leger Meeting Pointers.

Signup here…. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’m off down to Devon (again) this weekend to see the family so I won’t be posting tomorrow. With a decent 6f handicap at Ripon taking place Gary’s had a look at the race as he tries to nail one of these big-field sprints before the end of the Season.

With Gary’s thoughts and the free trends guide I’m giving away hopefully we can point you in the right direction…..

FREE TRENDS GUIDE IS HERE…… www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/stwilfrid.pdf

As you can see from the URL it’s a clean, direct, straight-to-the-guide link with no sign-ups or card details required.

And here are Gary’s thoughts……

Hi All,

It’s been a disappointing season so far for me personally in my favourite types of races so I’m setting my sights on regaining the winning thread at Ripon on Saturday. I’ve still had plenty of winners in 5 & 6F sprints up and down the country, like Dickie Le Davoir only the other night at Hamilton, but the major sprint handicaps have so far eluded me.  My timing seems to be out as I always seem to back the winners of these races too early (Joseph Henry) or the ones I back in the big sprints win next time out (Rasaman). From the Epsom Dash to Stewards Cup its been a bitter disappointment.

However we still have the Great St Wilfred this weekend, York next week, the Portland from Doncaster as well as the Ayr Gold, Silver & Bronze Cups to give me plenty more opportunities to nail that winner. So onto Ripon and a slightly different approach this week as I’m giving each horse a brief write up and a score out of 5….
 
Knot In Wood: A classy sprinter who has won 11 of his 65 starts, the last of which was just over 12months ago off a rating of 103 (he runs here of 107), however he did run 4th in the Wokingham and 3rd in the Ayr Gold Cup of 108 so he is more than capable. His Ripon record though is not so good with just 1 place from 4 attempts including 14/20 in this race 2 years ago.   3/5
 
Rileyskeepingfaith: He’s having a good season with a neck 2nd to Genki and 4th in the Stewards Cup. He won at Newbury back in May off a rating of 97 whereas today he runs of 102. He has no track record and I think he will struggle here.    2/5
 
Quest For Success: Winner of 6 of his 30 races with the last one being over 5F at the end of last season off 95.  He runs here off 100, is back over 6F and coming from stall 1 is not for me.  2/5
 
Signor Peltro: An interesting runner who has been campaigned over varying distances this term with his 4th to Parisian Pyramid over 6F at Windsor back in June being his best this season. His last 2 runs have been over further and this drop back in trip should help. He has no track form which is a slight negative but from a decent draw I give him a good chance at an ew price 4/5
 
Johannes: A winner at York back in May of 95 over 5F but he’s not been in the same form since. He does hold a 50% track record after winning on his last visit to Ripon exactly 12 months ago but faces a stiff task here and is not for me.  2/5
 
Hitchens: A highly rated 2yo who has struggled a little over the last 18 months and as a result has slipped down to a nice mark. His only course run saw him finish 6/17 to Markab last year and as he runs today off a 2lb lower mark and is drawn 19 he must enter calculations.  3/5
 
Noverre To Go: Winner of 4 of his 16 starts to date he’s also finished a very creditable 7th in the Wokingham and 5th in the Stewards Cup this season. Those runs came on the back of a win at Newmarket and he should go well on his first run at Ripon  3/5
 
Advanced: An excellent 1/4 length 3rd in this race last year. He runs off the same rating today and is a very game and tough horse who is versatile in the way he needs to be ridden. With an excellent 3lb claimer on board who won on him at Ascot last September he is a very strong e/w possibility from a high draw   5/5
  
Lowdown: A 3yo who will need to improve 12lb to figure and I don’t think that’s likely 1/5
 
Tiddliwinks: A very interesting contender who has only had 15 career runs but has won 5 of them. His last 2 runs have been a big step up on his previous turf form. He was an excellent 4th at Goodwood and filled the same spot at York before that but he is still no wins or places from 6 runs on turf and for this reason he is passed over. 3/5
 
Tajneed: He’s 3 from 3 over course and distance including in this race in 2008 off a 2lb lower rating. He has been consistent this term and did get home in front in early June over this CD off a 4lb lower mark. Historically, stall 20 in this race is a good draw so a big run is very much expected.   4/5
 
Damika: A winner of 8 of his 50 career runs and 1 of his 4 starts over CD. He will need a career best performance to figure and on recent form that looks to be asking too much. Easily passed over. 2/5
 
Favourite Girl: In the form of her life winning 4 of her last 5 starts but she has gone up 20lb since the first of those wins and on bare form alone has a lot to do to win this. From stall 3 she’s not for me.  1/5
 
Everymanforhimself: Has struggled this season since winning on the AW back in February and it will take a massive reversal of form to take a hand here. He’s 0/4 over CD and easily left out.  1/5
 
Wildcat Wizard: Won his first 2 career runs but has not won since. He bounced back to form last time with a good 3rd to Joseph Henry at Goodwood after failing to beat a single horse in his 2 previous runs. A low draw may hinder his chances 2/5 

Novellen Lad: He’s got 8lb more to carry than when last successful and with no course form it take s a big leap of faith to back this one and I can easily look elsewhere.  1/5
 
Pavershooz: Has been struggling this season but his latest run showed a little bit more encouragement. But his last 3 wins have all been over 5F and his last 2 attempts over 6F finished in 2 last place finishes  (22/22 and 18/18). So no surprise to see he gets left out here.  0/5
 
Fullandby: Not been at this low a rating since Sept ’06 and 3lb lower than when last successful in November last year. He did finish 5/25 in the Ayr Silver Cup last season off 92 and as he runs off 91 here it would be foolish to write off completely although he is 0/4 over CD.  3/5
 
Shifting Star: Not won since rattled off a hat-trick in the summer of 2008. Steadily coming back down the ratings and now 2lb lower than when last successful but most recent form not too encouraging.  2/5
 
Midnight Martini: A 3yo filly who is 0/2 over CD. Not for me despite a good looking draw.  1/5
 
Selection: ADVANCED 2pt ew 20/1
Danger: SIGNOR PELTRO 1pt ew 16/1
Tricast : TAJNEED
 
Good Luck,
Gavin & Gary

It’s been a bit quiet on the blog front recently due to the poor racing we’ve been served up over the last week or so including that truly awful Shergar Cup meeting from Ascot (I think Gary has come around to my way of thinking as he too now also hates it!). I’ve made a note in the diary to make sure next years family holiday coincides with the meeting.

Things will start to pick up again from this weekend with a good card at Newbury on Saturday followed by York’s Ebor meeting next week. There’s also a good 6f Sprint Handicap at Ripon on Saturday and I’ve got another FREE Trends Guide to give away to all readers. It’s the St Wilfrid Stakes and you can get it by clicking below…..

 www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/stwilfrid.pdf

Don’t forget I’m also giving away the Ebor Trends as well….

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/go.php?r=558&i=l5

And if you still can’t get enough of the trends my special offer is still available until the weekend. All the trends guides for the rest of the year (York, Doncaster, Ayr, Ascot, Newmarket, Newbury, Breeders Cup, Arc, Cheltenham, Kempton…….) the 2yo TTS Guide, Summer Jumps TTS Guide and the Ebor Meeting pointers (see below) all for just £29.95……

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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Ebor Meeting Pointers

In the Summer Special offer I dug out 10 trainer / jockey combinations to look out for at the Ebor meeting which included this little beautie….

‘John Dunlop has a great record at the meeting with 8 winners from 24 runners since 2004 but by concentrating solely on his runners who finished in the top 5 last time out we can improve this further to 7 wins from 14 runners for a level stakes profit of +39pts.’

In other words, If you’d have simply backed all John Dunlop runners at the Ebor Meeting who finished in the top 5 on their last start you would have had a 50% strike rate and a whopping 39 point profit since 2004.

Anyone who wants the other 9 stats can get them by subscribing to the end of year trends offer (£29.95), the York trends (£4.95) or the Summer Special Offer or if you prefer you can have the following ones for free.

They’re not quite as solid because they’re relying on a smaller number of winners but all would have shown a decent profit at the Ebor Meeting since 2004…….

John Gosden

Since 2004 he’s had 3 winners from 15 runners at the meeting and backing all his runners blindly you would have shown a level stakes loss. But by solely backing his runners in the Group races you would have backed all 3 of his winners but had only 4 losers. This system shows a level stakes profit of +£7.00

- Back all John Gosden runners in Group races

Mick Channon

He’s another trainer who seems to target the Group races at the meeting as all 3 of his winners have come in this type of race. He’s sent 34 horses up to York since 2004 and backing them all would have seen you lose £10.59 at level stakes but with just 8 Group runners in the same period those 3 winners would have seen you win £15.40

If you wanted to take it one step further and just back those who finished in the top 3 last time out then you would have had a perfect 3 from 3 and improved your LSP to +£20.40.

- Back Mick Channon’s Group runners who finished in the top 3 last time out

D. NIcholls

Backing Dandy Nicholl’s runners blindly since 2004 would have given you just 4 winners from 33 runners but you would have made a nice profit of +£22.62 to level stakes (thanks mainly to one 25/1 winner).

But by simply backing his 2 and 3yo’s over 5f + 6f you would have backed 3 of his 4 winners from only 8 runners and made an even more impressive level stakes profit of +£30.62

- Back Nicholl’s 2 and 3yo’s running over sprint distances

Saeed Bin Suroor

He’s had just 3 winners from 29 runners since 2004 and shows a loss of -£15.12 but all 3 winners were at a distance of 1m2f – 1m5f  and finished in the top 4 last time out. If we apply this criteria to his horses we would have made a level stakes profit of +£7.87.

- Back all Suroor’s horses running over a distance of 1m2f – 1m5f who placed in the top 4 last time out.

And finally a word of caution……

Richard Hannon may have been cleaning up all the juvenile races at every track this year but beware his York Ebor juvenile runners. He’s had 30 such runners since 2004 and all have been beaten.

Good luck,
Gavin.

FESTIVAL TRENDS

As a special offer I’m offering a Festival Trends Season ticket until 1st January 2011 for just £29.95!

That’s every guide including York Ebor, Doncaster St Leger, Ayr Gold Cup, Newmarket Cambridgeshire, Newmarket Cesarewitch,  Ascot Autumn festival, The Arc, The Breeders Cup, Cheltenham, Newbury Hennessy, Kempton King George and Chepstow Welsh National! Plus many, many more….

BUT WAIT!

That’s not all because for 1 week only everyone who signs up for this offer will also receive all the Summer Special Guides as well ABSOLUTELY FREE!! That’s the 2yo TTS Guide, The Summer Jumps TTS Guide, The York and Doncaster Festival Pointers along with my 15 Horses to Follow.

Sign-up below…..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/go.php?r=558&i=l3

£29.95 for every Festival Trends Guide until January 1st 2011 PLUS the Summer Special Guides as well! I must be mad….

————–

The Ebor Handicap (York)

If you’re new to the Blog and festival trends or just like collecting my FREE guides then I have another one for you.

As always it’s a one click direct link to the Guide. There are no sign-ups, no subscriptions and absolutely no card details required.

It’s a 100% FREE Festival Trends Guide for the Ebor Handicap at York and you can get your copy by clicking below……..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/go.php?r=558&i=l5 

————-

Shergar Cup Meeting

As I can’t stand this meeting and have no interest in it whatsoever I’ve asked Gary to take over the blog and have a look at the 6 races for you….

Hi all,

I spent Monday afternoon at my local track, Newton Abbot, with my sister, mum, my 6 sons and their assorted friends and girlfriends. The track has a great incentive for going racing as all kids get in free but unfortunately that doesn’t include cheeseburgers, jacket potatoes, ice-creams, do-nuts, sweets, drinks etc. which meant I was nearly skint before the first race had even been run! I wasn’t that bothered though because my big fancy of the day was running in the last and I was sure my £50ew at 14/1 Temple Place would more than pay the food bill.

Everything went to plan as he cruised through to lead at the second last only to make a mistake at the hurdle and come home a disappointing 2nd. It was a profit on the day but it left me feeling a little deflated as he really should have won. On my return home I found a few emails in my inbox that Gavin had forwarded on from happy readers who had had a Glorious Goodwood thanks to my tips. That certainly cheered me up as I love it when I’m able to help people win money off the bookies! There was also one from Gavin asking if I’d take a look at the Shergar Cup meeting as I was a brilliant tipster who was in such good form to which I replied, of course, no problem.

It wasn’t until I read Gavin’s Blog that I found the real reason he’d asked me, he hates the meeting! Cheers Gav.

Let’s see if I can change his mind with this little lot….

The first of the 6 races is the 2.10 a 6F handicap for all ages, just my type of race. From the 10 runners I have a short list of 3, they are Judge ‘N Jury, Fol Hollow and Secret Asset. Judge ‘N Jury was 3rd in this race last year after having won here the time before and, while he doesn’t come into the race this year in quite the same form, he wasn’t beaten that far on his last run and he’s a 1lb lower than when running 4th in the Epsom Dash on Derby Day. Back in 4th last year was Fol Hollow and he comes here with a win over Captain Dunne this season which is pretty good sprint handicap form. Secret Asset was 6th in last weeks Stewards Cup.
 
Selection: JUDGE ‘N JURY
Danger: FOL HOLLOW
 
Race 2 is a 1m 4F 3yo only handicap with Mark Johnston responsible for 4 of the runners. It’s a very tight handicap with only 11lb’s between top and bottom weights. It’s the bottom one I’m interested in, Life And Soul, who ran a cracking 4th last week at Goodwood where he had quite a few of these behind him. Trying to sort out possible dangers is quite tricky here as they all have some decent form in the book so I’m taking a chance with the Godolphin horse Fareej who was 7th at Goodwood. Of the Johnston quartet Mister Angry looks to be the best bet.
 
Selection: LIFE AND SOUL
Danger: FAREEJ
 
3.20 Race 3 sees the Hannon trained Vitznau who was 5th in the Goodwood mile last week. This was one race that the Hannon/Hughes combination didn’t win and a ride that Hughes did not over impress on. Olivier Peslier takes the ride for the Europeans and this smaller field should be more suitable for the top-weight. Possible dangers are Dunn’o and Benandonner. The latter ran a good 4th last week whilst Dunn’o has been knocking on the door all season.
 
Selection: VITZNAU
Danger: BENANDONNER
 
Race 4 is for the stayers where my shortlist includes Bernie The Bolt , Bow To No One and Becausewecan. I am convinced that Becausewecan is going to win soon as his last 2 efforts have been much more encouraging. This isn’t the greatest staying handicap Ascot will stage and a 3lb drop in the ratings makes him look attractively handicapped. Both Bernie The Bolt and Bow To No One need to return to last seasons form to play major roles here but that’s not completely out of the question bearing in mind the quality involved here. Lady Eclair has been in tremendous form so far this season but here rating has shot up as a result and the same can now be said of Colloquiall.
 
Selection: BECAUSEWECAN
Danger: BERNIE THE BOLT
 
Race 5 is an all aged 1m 4F handicap where only 2 of the runners won last time out. I’m looking beyond both of them and seeking a little bit of value. I am expecting Emerging Market to be the favourite but he’s not on my shortlist of 3 which consists of Strategic Mount, Seeking The Buck and Macarthur. They have had 10 runs with no wins between them so far this season but are all capable 12F horses on there day. The selection is going to be Paul Cole’s Strategic Mount who has twice won over the CD from 5 attempts and both were off a rating of 94. Today he runs of only 88. The danger could well be the once well regarded Macarthur who won a Group 2 over this CD only 2 years ago when rated 119. He now runs of a rating of 94 and on his last run finished 7th in the Northumberland Plate behind Overturn, he could surprise.
 
Selection: STRATEGIC MOUNT
Danger: MACARTHUR
 
Race 6 is a 3yo 6F handicap that sees the consistent Gene Autry as top weight. He ran another fine race at Goodwood over 7F but I feel this return to a stiffer 6F will definitely suit him. Fireback is a big danger on the form of his win at Newmarket’s July meeting but he was disappointing last time at Goodwood. Below Zero could be a bigger danger if able to return to his Chester form having been a little disappointing behind Fireback at Newmarket last time. He could be a value alternative in a very competitive sprint.
 
Selection: GENE AUTRY
Danger: BELOW ZERO
 
I had done all the selections without knowing the Jockey so as not to be influenced by doing only the riders I knew or had heard of. Having now seen the jockey bookings I am very pleased with most of them and the French pair of C. Soumillon and O. Peslier look to have got very good rides. My 6 selections have a very international flavour with Anton Marcus(SAF), Y.Iwata(JPN), O.Peslier(FR), Hayley Turner(GB), Anton Marcus(SAF) and Fran Berry(IRE) taking the rides. Lets hope for some good luck and an enjoyable days racing so that we can convert Gavin into loving this meeting. We all know how much he loves these innovations in racing, particularly the ones at Kempton Park!
 
Good Luck
Gary
 
P.S. Away from Ascot I have 2 horses running that are worth a very close look. Geojimali in the 7.40 at Ayr will be winning very soon in fact I’m hoping that it will be by 7.45 Saturday night! The other is in the sprint at 4.35 Haydock. Regular readers will know I have done Excusez Moi on numerous occasions before and I’m glad to say he is now running back into form. Anyone who saw his run at Ripon on Monday will know he is now ready to win again. If it’s not today then I think the Great St. Wilfred back at Ripon next Saturday could well be on the agenda which is a race he won back in 2006. I will be having ew singles and an ew double on those 2.

As always, fell free to do what you want with the selections: BACK THEM, LAY THEM or IGNORE THEM!

With deposits, solicitors fees, arangement fees, decorating and furnishings to think about for our new holiday home my punting war chest wasn’t as big as it has been for some of the other major meetings this year. A more restrained and selective style of betting was called for.

I also needed to hit the ground running with some decent early winners and in the very first race of the day I had a major fancy in Almiqdaad. I thought he looked fairly well treated on his Newbury win last Autumn and the drop back in trip was a major bonus as he had just failed to last home at Haydock on his previous run. I’d had £40 at 7/1 the night before and went in again with another £20 at 6/1. Quite what Richard Hills was doing on him is anyone’s guess and I’d imagine that also includes Richard Hills who really must be the most clueless jockey currently riding….

Much better to back a horse ridden by Ryan Moore, so that’s exactly what I did in the next. £30 at 4/1 Rebel Soldier and never a moment of doubt that the ‘champ’ would get him home (well except for the last 1/2 furlong!). That Tom Queally’s not too bad either and my £30 Lord Shanakill, £30 Dalghar with a £5 rfc looked like a great bit of race reading by yours truly until Cat Junior got up to split the two of them. Still it was another nice return and meant I’d nearly forgotten all about Richard ‘bloody’ Hills. Nearly….

Another jockey who’s not too bad is that Richard Hughes. His ride on Zebedee in the Moelcomb was about as good as it gets which wasn’t so good for me as I’d backed Stone of Folca. Still it was worth losing my £40 to see such a great ride from a jockey in such good form. Yeah right! It’s at times like these that you wish Hannon had asked Richard Hills to be his stable jockey. I’d like to see him try and win so many 2yo races with him onboard….

Which meant there was only one jockey missing from that illustrious list. The master. The real champ. The enforcer. Mr Kieren Fallon. Jim McGrath on Channel 4 had said Start Right was his only bet of the day and that was good enough for me. I probably didn’t have as much on as Timeform Jim but £50 at 4.3 was plenty and after a dodgy start to proceedings I had pulled it around and had just the opening day I was looking for. I did do a little back in the last when I had £1oew on Gary’s fancy Becausewecan but all in all a satisfactory start.

Dylan has football training on a Wednesday morning at the local leisure centre. I say training but basically it’s 15 or so 6-8yo’s running in a big group chasing the ball like some migrating flock of birds. I sit in the balcony with my laptop and the Racing Post and get an hour of peaceful form study.

Gary had emailed me his fancies and I was in total agreement with him about the chances of Ghimaar in the first. I had £20 at 8.4 on him and a throwaway £5ew Enjoy the Moment at 50′s as I’m just waiting for him to recapture his form. He didn’t. But a great ride from Eddie Ahern on a willing partner and things had carried on from where they had left off on the Tuesday.

And just as my confidence was about as high as it had been for some time I came crashing back down to earth with an almighty bump…

£80 on Crown Prosecutor lost to another Hannon / Hughes 2yo after he seemed to slip on the bend and came home a well beaten 6th. I was hoping for a bit of evens on Canford Cliffs but it never materialised so I just watched the race. Another masterclass of jockeymanship from Richard Hughes (were you watching and learning Richard Hills?) but it left me feeling rather unsatisfied. I wish I’d have had the bottle to stick £500 on him at 4/5. That last furlong would have got the adrenalin pumping!

£60 Berling was probably my worst bet of the week. I’d convinced myself that a return to a left handed track would see him revitalised but I hadn’t taken into account the total lack of form in the John Dunlop stable. I should have just backed Ryan Moore. £40 on Oratory in the last and £20ew on Sarteano in the Galway Plate meant a complete reversal of the way Tuesday had gone as I was now behind on the day after the perfect start.

Onto Thursday and what was to be a case of so near yet so far…

I had to drop the family of at the mother in laws in the afternoon so my plan was to put my bets on in the morning, take them (the family not the bets) over to Porthcawl and get back in time for the second race. I was then set for an afternoon of watching the racing with a spot of poker in the evening. Perfick!

Gary had emailed me a whole bunch of tips for 6 of the Goodwood races and as my own fancy Kite Wood was a non runner in one of the races I decided to go with him. I did various each way Lucky 15′s and Lucky 31′s on his 12 horses along with a 2x2x2x2x2x2 25pew permed accumulator on the lot. A quick dash up the M4 and back dodging the speed camera van on the bridge just before junction 34 (it had me twice in the space of 3 weeks back in February) I got home just in time to see Fallon ride a peach of a race on the old boy Borderlescott.

I’d recorded the 2.10 and having watched the replay I’m glad I’d already dropped Dylan off at Grandma’s because I don’t think the language Daddy was using was suitable for the ears of a 6yo. The shortest of shortheads and denied on the very last stride at 50/1. It doesn’t get any closer than that.

By the time Eastern Aria and Citrus Star had won and Electrolyser had finished second I was in a right old sweat. As is usually the case I hadn’t managed to get Gary’s three winners in the same Lucky 15 and in fact I’d done a pretty good job of matching one winner with 2 or 3 losers in most of the bets but one slip stood out like a sore thumb….

I had a £1ew Lucky 15 with Electrolyser (2nd 33/1), Start Right (2nd 50/1), Eastern Aria (16/1 winner) with Mythical Blue (25/1). Along with the ew accumulators I stood to win around £25,000 if the last one made the frame. Even if Gary’s other choice Matsonuke made the frame I was on for well over £10,000.

Matsonuke travelled strongly and looked set to play a part at the 2 furlong pole but eventually couldn’t get competitive and finished 9th whereas Mythical Blue never looked like landing me a big payday and came home in 11th. That’s the last time I follow my brother. What does he know?

From an outlay of just over £250 I returned £1186 which I certainly would have took with both hands at the start of the day but I couldn’t help feeling I hadn’t made as much as I could, or should, have done from those tips………

I did my best to give my winnings back to Fred Done on the Friday with a poorly judged £150 on Duncan in the first, a ridiculous £25ew on Mac Gille Eion in the second, a stupid £2oew Mahadee in the Mile, a terrible £30 Satin Love in the next and an utterly bonkers £120 on Jacqueline Quest in the Fillies race! The old saying ‘if it looks to good to be true it probably is’ is never better used than when applied to horseracing and betting (especially in fillies races).

The only respite on the day was my £2oew on Webbow and £10 on Perfect Blossom in the last.

With the missus away for a few days it did allow me a couple of nights in the casino playing poker. My 7th place finish on the Thursday and a 8th on the Friday made me a small profit but when 32 repeated on the roulette wheel in the early hours of Saturday morning I made more money in 3 minutes than I had done all week at Goodwood. Happy days…..

Which just left Saturday and after what can only be described as an up and down kind of week I was about ready for a break.

I had £25ew Shimmering Moment in the first and a £5 Lucky 15 with a £12.50ew Acc on Critical Moment, Midday, Pasuanias and Jonny Mudball in the Stewards Cup. I didn’t know it at the time but Odds and Evens getting up to beat the Mudball would end up costing me another £25k payout. I had to settle for a lot less than that and to say I was upset would be a major understatement.

 By all rights I should now be in Las Vegas playing poker in the Bellagio! Life’s just not fair sometimes…

All in all it’s been a terrific week though and I owe my brother a drink or two on his birthday later in the month for all his help. Who knows I may even take him racing for the day.

I have also been knocking on the door of a big payout and just hope that with York coming up in a fortnight’s time it can all finally fall into place for me then. Fingers crossed……

Gavin.

P.S. Gary will be back at the weekend with an indepth look at the Shergar Cup races at Ascot. I absolutely detest the meeting and am happy to pass the buck on this occassion.

The 5 Best performances of the week….

Canford Cliffs

I think Richard Hughes deserves as much praise as the horse for the intelligent ride he gave the winner. From the deliberate miss of the break to the perfect position he held throughout the race right through to the perfectly timed challenge to overhaul the top class miler Rip Van Winkle at the finish it was a masterclass of jockeymanship. Of course it helps he had a horse as good as Canford Cliffs under him and the way the winner quickened from the furlong pole was a true indicator of greatness. This was a performance out of the top drawer from both horse and jockey.

Midday

Henry Cecil’s super filly hasn’t been out of the first three in any of her 6 attempts at Group 1 level and has won 3 of her last 4 runs at the highest level. Her run on Saturday marked her down as a very tough filly as, much like her Breeders Cup victory, she had to battle hard for her victory. It sets up an possible clash with Sariska, Dar Re Mi and Snow Fairy in the Yorkshire Oaks and if those four go to post then it could be the race of the season. Connections of Midday will relish the rematch with Sariska at level weights, Sariska will be looking to gain revenge on Dar Re Mi who beat her in the race last year and if Snow Fairy is to be regarded as a truly top class filly then she’ll need to beat her elders. I really hope all 4 line up…

Goldikova

Wow! What else can you say about the super mare. 10 Group 1 victories and her latest the easiest yet. The way she left Group 1 winner Music Show for dead was a joy to watch and surely a third Breeders Cup Mile is hers for the taking. A rematch against Paco Boy before then should settle the debate as to whether she stole the race at Royal Ascot and if Canford Cliffs lines up as well we could be in for one hell of an end to the flat season. You’d almost watch those kind of races without even having a bet. Almost!

Zebedee

Another incredible ride from Richard Hughes that cements his position as the king of the hold-up horse. If like me you’d backed Stone of Folca then I’m afraid the writing was on the wall from some way out and you just knew that Hughsie was going to get the Hannon horse up. That he did it so cheekily probably means we haven’t seen the best of Zebedee yet and all the top 5f races look well within his compass. Connections may even be tempted by a crack at the Nunthorpe given the massive weight allowance 2yo’s receive in the race. As a side not, Stone of Folca must be the best 2yo maiden in the country and deserves a drop in class just to get him off the mark.

Perfect Blossom

She didn’t win one of the more prestigious races of the week but this admirable filly made it 5 straight wins on the bounce with a gutsy success under the talented claimer, Amy Ryan. She’s now won all of her last 6 starts over 5f and based on this run there’s no reason to believe that her winning spree has come to and end just yet. When she won her first race of the season she was rated just 56 but last Friday with a 6lb penalty to shoulder it equated to a rating of 84 which makes for an improvement of 28lb in just 2 months. I’d imagine the handicapper won’t make things easy for her in the future but connections have had a great Summer so far and she owes them nothing.

——–

It was a good week for….

Hannon / Hughes

No prizes for guessing they’d be featuring here! Canford Ciffs was the star of the show but with a clean sweep of the Juvenile Group races and a couple of talented newcomers to boot it all meant they ended the week as both Top Trainer and Top Jockey. 9 winners (all trained by Richard Hannon) from 26 rides for Hughes and a level stakes profit of £10.49 is a pretty good meeting by anyone’s standards.

Gary

He had some decent winners throughout the 5 days but his exploits on the Thursday were simply incredible. 3 big winners and two massive priced seconds that had every chance of winning gave us some lovely returns but if either of his selections had made the frame in the last the two of us would be currently sitting on a sun drenched beach with pina-colada’s in hand or more likely sat at the roulette wheel in the 5 star Wynn Casino in Las Vegas. So close yet so far….

It was a bad week for….

John Dunlop

His stable continues in poor form and last week at his local track was a new low. It’s now been 17 days and 24 runners since he last sent out a winner and the 5 horses that he ran at Goodwood all ran terribly including the well fancied pair Tactic and Berling. 9th of 13 runners, 9th of 16, 9th of 10, 12th of 13 and 12th of 14 were their finishing positions and marks him down as a trainer to treat with extreme caution at the moment.

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3 horses to note from the week….

Freeforaday

His form figures for the season look less than inspiring and his two runs at Goodwood last week only produced a 6th and a 5th place finish but this horse will win a decent race before the end of the season. He finished an excellent 4th in the Jersey Stakes as a 66/1 outsider before disappointing in the Bunbury when he finished last. It was then on to Goodwood where he started his week running an okay race in the 7f handicap behind Citrus Star before everything seemed to come together thanks to the step up to a mile in Saturday’s Listed Thoroughbred Stakes. He travelled strongly throughout but was repeatedly denied a run and by the time he finally got the gap it was all too late. Obviously the mile is now his trip and he can now start to look like the 102 rated horse he is.

Dalghar

When she cruised into the lead and shot two lengths clear in Tuesday’s Betfair Cup it looked all over bar the shouting but, not for the first time, she didn’t quite get home and was caught by both Lord Shanakill and Cat Junior. I wouldn’t write her off just yet and would imagine she’s more than capable of landing a decent Group race before the end of the season. 7f on a flatter track and ridden with a little more restraint should see her back in the winners enclosure and I’d imagine connections are already eyeing up the 7f Prix De Floret on Arc weekend for her.

Start Right

A great ride from Fallon brought home the bacon for all us favourite backers when Start Right won the 3yo handicap on the Tuesday. The Luca Cumani  trained winner is obviously a horse going places and must enter calculations for all the top handicaps still to be run this season. The obvious target will be the Cambridgeshire and I await the opening betting on that race with great interest.

And 3 to avoid….

Duncan

Urrgh. This horse ran a stinker at Goodwood and I wouldn’t touch him with a bargepole even if he ran in a selling hurdle next time out. There seemed to be no obvious excuses for the poor run but as it’s not the first time he’s disappointed one can only conclude that the horse is just not that good or genuine. The fact that he had the winner Redwood behind him at Royal Ascot just proves that the horse simply can’t be relied upon to reproduce his best form on a regular basis. His last win came when he defeated Starfala in a Listed race and given that one’s form subsequently Duncan is nowhere near a 119 rated horse.

Arcano

As a 2yo he beat Showcasing, Special Duty and Canford Cliffs. As a 3yo he started the year running 3rd to Dick Turpin so he was fully entitled to be odds on to win the 5 runner conditions race he ran in on Saturday. According to the official ratings he was at least 19lb clear of all his rivals and the fact that he couldn’t beat a single one of them suggests that he has failed to train on from last year. I certainly won’t be backing him in the near future no matter how easy a task he seems to have been set.

Zacinto

The third of our terrible trio has to be Zacinto after another shockingly poor run at Pontefract last time out. It’s hard to believe that he was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths by Rip Van Winkle less than 10 months ago as he has finished last of 11, last of 9, 4th of 10, last of 5 and now 5th of 6 in his last 5 runs. He’s been tried at 8f – 10f, on a variety of ground, over straight and round courses on left and right handed tracks all to no avail. Even his latest drop down from Group 1 company to Listed class couldn’t bring about a change of fortunes and he’s another to steer well clear of at present.

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I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at my punting week. There were more ups and downs than the Big Dipper on Blackpool Pleasure Beach and by Saturday night there was a similar feeling of nausea as I stepped off my 5 day ride. Twice in one week I very nearly landed my biggest ever win…..

Good luck,
Gavin.