Day 2

 Not too good yesterday but I guess that’s what happens sometimes when you’re backing big priced outsiders. Undeterred, Gary’s having another go today on these 3 races….

2.10 Goodwood.

The usual assortment of hurdlers, chasers and long distance flat handicappers have been assembled to try their luck in the 2m5f handicap that opens todays card. The likely favourite is Junior who won a similar handicap at Royal Ascot by an easy 5 lengths and has been raised just 8lb for that success. However, he may find today’s course a little different from Ascot and I reckon Ghimaar can gain revenge on him on those 8lb better terms. He was sent off favourite for the Ascot race but was a little one-paced in the last couple of furlongs. Firm ground is no worry for him and a recent easy win over hurdles will have put him spot on for this. Dangers are a plenty with top weight Lady Eclair from the Mark Johnston yard looking to complete a 4 timer, Markington on a hat-trick and a very eye-catching  jockey booking of Kieren Fallon for the Tony Martin trained Dream Champion. But the one I’m hoping will re-find some of his form is the big priced outsider Mith Hill who had a good Winter over hurdles before disappointing in two flat races this Spring. If he’s back to something like his best the 40/1 could look big.

Selection: Ghimaar 9/1
Danger: Mith Hill 40/1

4.00 Goodwood

Berling got turned over at 2/5 last time out but I reckon we can forget that run as he doesn’t seem to like running left handed. He was very unlucky at Royal Ascot and now he’s back on a right-handed track I think we’ll see a return to the sort of form that saw him easily win a handicap at Newbury back in May. Amanda Perret usually manages to bag one of these handicaps at Goodwood and I’m hoping her Life and Soul can put a poor run at Royal Ascot behind him to run well at a big price. His 2nd at Epsom to Dandino (just beaten in the Gordon Stakes yesterday) reads very well and he had Verdant back in third too. With that one currently trading as the favourite Life and Soul’s 28/1 looks good value.

Selection: Berling 6/1
Danger: Life and Soul 28/1

5.10 Goodwood

This is a really tough race and small stakes are advised. I’m going to suggest a little each way bet on the complete outsider of the field Flapper who came into form at this time last year. She won a Newmarket handicap by 6 lengths to complete a quick double having won her previous race at York. Amy Scott claims a useful 7lb and 20/1 looks okay. William Hill go 11/1 about Seradim which seems a bit big and she will be my danger to the selection. She looks on a winning mark now having spent much of last season and this Spring on a rating in the high 80’s and 90’s and her two recent seconds show she’s in good form.

Selecton: Flapper 20/1
Danger: Seradim 11/1

As always do what you like with them….Back them, Lay them or Ignore them!

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Galway Plate.

It’s the feature race of the Galway meeting and there are also some very strong trends associated with the race. Our record in these types of chases is pretty good so let’s see if we can pinpoint this years winner…..

- All of the last 11 winners had run no more than 17 times over fences (5 of the last 6 winners had less than 10 career chase starts)
- All of the last 11 winners were aged 6-9yo (10/11 were 7-9yo’s)
- All of the last 11 winners were rated less than 143 (9/11 were rated 123-143)
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10-13 or less
- 10 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 2m4f
- 8 of the last 11 winners had won within their last 2 starts (2 exceptions were dual winner Ansar)

The race usually goes the way of a younger horses who is lightly raced, proven at the trip (or slightly shorter) and comes here on the back of a recent win.

I’m going to stick with the 7yo’s and go for Dessie Hughes runner Sarteano. His last 3 runs have seen him take in a chase, flat race and hurdle! but this return to chasing should continue his improvement and at around 25/1 he looks excellent each way value.

Good luck,
Gavin