Unfortunately I didn’t make it to Vegas this year for my birthday. Despite going on a decent winning run since Ascot I couldn’t really justify the extortionate price of the flights given we’re trying to buy a holiday home in Devon. I blame Richard Hughes for not winning on Paco Boy at Royal Ascot, some horrendous bad beats on the poker tables and myself for not having enough on Twice Over in the Eclipse, Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby or Music Show in the Flamouth Stakes. There’s always next year!
So it was a home based birthday bash which started off with some 20/20 cricket at the Swalec Stadium on Friday. Glamorgan Dragons vs the Kent Spitfires wasn’t the greatest match ever played but it was building to an exciting climax when the rain came down with 7 overs to go. According to Mr Duckworth and Mr Lewis, Kent would have won by 14 runs which is probably about right given Glamorgan’s pretty laboured run chase. It was a great night out spoilt only by the weather.
On the Saturday we headed down to Torbay letting the ‘train take the strain’ for a few days with my mum. I spent the journey with an intermittent internet connection but was able to check the results and find that Grand Slam Hero had done the business for me but Ballista hadn’t. Coincidentally it was on Bristol station that I found out that Temple Meads had won the Super Sprint. I should have had a saver on that one!
On the Sunday we met up with my brothers, sister and nephews for a day at Newton Abbot races. It was a lovely afternoon with some average racing and below average cheeseburgers! The day was made even better when Strong Coffee left some pretty poor form well behind to score an all the way success at 25/1. My £10ew more than paid for the weekend and recouped the £20 I lost on the horse when he got stuffed at Ffos Las the night we went there.
On the Monday we acted like grockles and took Dylan to Babbacombe Model Village. I probably haven’t been since I was Dylan’s age but as far as I can remember not a lot has changed, except the admission charges! Lunch on Babbacombe Downs followed by a walk down to the beach and a ride back on the cliff railway completed a very decent morning and afternoon.
A quick visit to see my magician mate Zak, an afternoon pottering around Paignton and a 4 hour train journey was Tuesday over with and now only 6 1/2 weeks of the school holiday are left to entertain a hyperactive 6yo. Roll on September…….
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ASCOT KING GEORGE VI & QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES
8 runners are due to contest the Summer’s big 12f race and it sees the Classic generation take on their elders in an eagerly awaited clash. Is Workforce the real deal or are the 3yo’s a big bunch of duds?
We’ll find out for sure on Saturday but until then here are my thoughts on the 8 runners….
Confront: He’s 200/1 but given the way he struggled in a 10f Listed race last time out you’d have to say that even those odds are a bit tight. He’s in the field purely as a pacemaker for Workforce and unless all of the other 7 runners take the wrong course he’ll not be winning.
Harbinger: He’s currently 5/2 2nd favourite and seems to be improving with each run. He took a couple of Group 3’s at the start of the season but it was his win last time out when stepped up to Group 2 class that marked him down as a genuine contender. That race was the Hardwicke stakes over this distance at Royal Ascot and it saw him spreadeagle the field to come home by 3 1/2 lengths. The 3rd home Barshiba was beaten 9 1/2 lengths but has since won the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks while the 4th horse Sans Frontieres (beaten 11 lengths) and the 5th horse Redwood (beaten 12 lengths) finished 1st and 2nd in the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes at Newmarket. All of which seems to suggest the form of that Royal Ascot win is pretty decent. On the downside, he’s yet to win (or race) at Group 1 class and that is something 12 of the last 13 winners had achieved.
Youmzain: Say what you like about the horse but what you can’t deny is that 99.9% of owners would swap their horse for him. He’s managed just 6 wins from his 30 starts but has accumulated £3,286,569 in win and placed prizemoney after finishing in the top 3 on 21 occassions. Saturday will be his 22nd consecutive start in Group 1 company and his third appearance in this race, he finished 2nd in 2007 behind Dylan Thomas and 3rd in 2008 behind Duke of Marmalade. In a below average King George he must have a great chance of making the frame again but he just can’t be relied upon to win. We also have to consider the fact that age is no longer on his side as only one horse aged over 5 has won since 1951 (the mighty Swain who won as a 6yo in 1998).
Dar Re Mi: She’s won Group 1 races in Britain, Ireland and Dubai and would have added France to that list if it weren’t for the biased local stewards at Longchamp last Autumn. She also ran 3rd to 2009 King George winner Conduit in the Breeders Cup Turf last season and on that form would have an outstanding chance. Her Group 1 win in Dubai in March is also top form which would put her in the shake-up for this race but you have to balance all that with her disappointing run in the Eclipse when she faded into 4th place behind Twice Over. You could argue that she needed the run that day as she hadn’t been out since her Dubai victory or that the distance was too short for her but what you can’t argue with is that you have to go back to 1983 to find the last filly or mare to win the King George (Time Charter).
Daryakana: Another female runner, the French filly won all of her 5 races last season culminating in a defeat of Spanish Moon in a Group 1 race at Sha Tin, Hong Kong. It’s difficult to work out the form of that race (Youmzain was back in 10th that day) but a strict line through the runner-up would leave her with a lot to find with Harbinger. She’s been 3rd in both her runs this season (just behind Youmzain last time out) and would need a career best to take the honours on Saturday.
At First Sight: One of three horses representing the Classic generation and one of two runners from the O’Brien stable. Much like the Derby he looks likely to take the role of the pacemaker for his more fancied stablemate but we all know what happened at Epsom! He’s failed to build on that 100/1 2nd though and his form since the Derby has been less than inspiring. With Confront also likely to be used as a pacemaker we should at least get a true run race.
Cape Blanco: He won the Irish Derby last time out and also has a victory over Workforce to his name. His only defeat came in the French Derby where, in a typically French style of race, the sudden lifting of the pace seemed to catch him out. There were no mistakes in the Irish version where off a more even gallop he was able to exert his authority in the final furlong and beat the Epsom 2nd, 4th and 5th. It’s worth noting that although Aiden O’Brien has managed to win the race 3 times since 2001 he’s never won the race with a 3yo.
Workforce: All eyes will be on the 7 length Derby winner as hopefully a few questions will finally be answered. Did we witness the performance of a new racing superstar at Epsom? or Was it the poorest renewal of the Derby in recent times? Do we look to the clock and recognise his Derby win as one of the best ever? or do we look at the form book and ask, Is a 7 length beating of At First Sight really that good? Personally, I don’t think he’s good enough to win here and at around even money he certainly doesn’t look value at all. Sir Michael Stoute’s last two Derby winners (North Light and Kris Kin) failed to win another race between them after Epsom and I think a similar fate awaits Workforce.
One recent trend that is not very well known is that all of the last 13 winners of the King George were Irish Bred. It’s quite a good stat as only 3 Irish Bred horses went to post last year and they had the first two home. It was a similar story in 2008 when 4 of the 8 runners were bred in Ireland but they provided the 1st and 3rd and in 2007 all of the 5 Irish bred runners filled the top 5 places. It’s not even as if they have had an advantage of runners, as since 1999 there have been 50 Irish Bred horses and 51 horses bred from other parts of the world. In this years race there are only 3 Irish Bred runners Cape Blanco, At First Sight and Youmzain.
Youmzain looks good for a place but all the 20/1 is well gone and he doesn’t make much appeal at around the 12/1 mark. A better value outsider may now be Dar Re Mi who is a big danger if back to her best. I’m torn between Cape Blanco and Harbinger but with the Irish breeding stat still fresh in my mind and the very decent odds of 13/2 currently available on him I will side with Cape Blanco.
Selection: Cape Blanco 5pts ew
(Victor Chandler is currently offering each way terms of 1/4 odds the first three and with the possibility of less than 8 runners lining up it looks worth taking the slightly smaller odds of 6/1 and betting him win and place.)
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Trends and TTS
The Trends carried on their good post-Ascot run at Market Rasen on Saturday when our joint selections for the Summer Plate (Grand Slam Hero & Putney Bridge) finished 1st and 2nd to give us a 9/1 winner and the £100 forecast. The winner was also a Summer Jumps TTS horse which meant that with all our other winners over the weekend we are now up over 20pts (at starting price!) in less than 3 weeks that the Summer Special has been running. Stop Press: Our only runner yesterday won by 5 lengths at 2/1 beating the odds on favourite…….. Stop Press: Our 2yo TTS guide gave 9/1 winner (matched at 11.5 on the ‘bot) Sky Falcon at Leicester tonight………
It didn’t all go smoothly with the TTS horses though as we had Mumbles Pier down as a selection on the Sunday. He had two entries over the weekend and his trainer decided to run him on the Saturday instead. The darn thing only went and won a day early at 28/1!
It’s still not too late to join in the Bookie Bashing and with Glorious Goodwood coming up next week there’s never been a better time to join.
For just £27 you will get the Summer Jumps Trainer Track Stats Guide, the 2yo TTS Guide, The Glorious Goodwood Trends, stats for the Ebor and St Leger meetings, 15 horses to follow, Gary’s Stewards Cup fancies and as a Special Bonus I’ll throw in the trends for this weekends Ascot King George. 8 top quality betting guides for just £27.
PLUS….
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Good luck,
Gavin.