Having now got myself back on an even keel (thank you Twice Over) after the horrors of Royal Ascot it’s time to pull on the punting boots again and take a look at Newmarket this afternoon…
A class 2 7f handicap for 3yo fillies kickstarts the meeting and I can’t help wondering where Clairvoyance is. This is just the type of race I’m looking for her to run in and she would have been a strong fancy of mine for it. Ah well there’s always Dylanesque. She’s a filly I’ve been following since her highly touted debut last August and was desperately unlucky to get caught on the line on her first run this season. The Michael Jarvis yard have been knocking the winners in of late and she should be in the shakeup.
These fillies only handicaps are notoriously difficult to work out and there are plenty of dangers including the favourite Maid In Heaven. Her only recent defeat came on soft ground and she’s progessing well but she has been raised another 9lb since her last win and that might catch her out in this stronger contest. One who does look nicely handicapped is Don’t Tell Mary who drops to handicap company for the first time having run in Group contests since wnning the Hilary Needler by 4 lengths last May. At around 25/1 she could make the frame. But the one horse I’m really worried about is the bottom weight Alice Alleyne who in a Yarmouth maiden last season got beat a shorthead by Dylaneasque off level weights. She comes from the Sir Michael Stoute yard, has Ryan Moore on board and ran on strongly over 6f last time out.
Selection: Dylanesque Danger: Alice Alleyne
Another 3yo handicap, this time over 6f, which doesn’t look any easier to solve than the first race. A lot of these runners contested a similar race on the same course back in May when Swilly Ferry won very nicely from Excellent Guest. That he wasn’t able to get competitive next time out suggests to me that the handicapper now has him in his grasp although 25/1 is a big price if you can forgive him that run in a big field handicap at York. I think the form of the Britannia handicap at Royal Ascot will prove to be very reliable over the coming months and Fireback ran very well in that race. At 28/1 he could be interesting although he is taking a marked drop in trip. There are also a few last time out winners in the field who command respect not least of which is Gene Autrey from the Richard Hannon stable. Dropped in grade to a class 4 handicap last time out he won by 4 lengths and from a good draw will take all the beating. Kellys Eye is going for a 4 timer here having won a Grade 5/4/3 handicap in his last 3 runs but another 9lb for his last win makes this a very tough assignment. Deacon Blues also has an extra 9lb to shoulder after his win in an all aged handicap last time out where he defeated the reliable yardstick Angus Newz by 3 1/2 lengths. He comes here at the top of his game and from a low draw looks a worthy favourite. The one horse I can’t get away from though is the bottom weight Excellent Guest who has landed a plum draw in stall 1, didn’t stay the trip in the Britannia last time out and had previously run 2nd to Swilly Ferry in the Coral Sprint. How on earth he is 25/1 is beyond me.
Selection: Gene Autrey Danger: Excellent Guest
The 2.35 looks good for Memory to follow up her Albany win at Royal Ascot. She’s a strong trends horse and at evens or better will be carrying some of my money. Mick Channon enjoys a lot of succes with his 2yo’s on the July course and his once raced Soraaya may be able to make the step up in class to chase Memory home.
Selection: Memory Danger: Soraaya
Onto the feature race of the day, the Falmouth Stakes. There’s plenty in this race I’ve done before and I’ve put Lillie Langtry in my list of horses to follow. The booking of Tom Queally on Special Duty could sway me towards her while I have a real niggling feeling that Spacious will win this as James Fanshawe has a great record in the race and she doesn’t have a lot to find on Windsor Forest form. Longtime sufferers readers of this blog will know that Strawberrydaiquiri and Music Show are also horses I regularly back making it a real quandary for me. I could even make a case for the 50/1 outsider Lahaleeb. Obviously the best solution would be to not have a bet but longtime readers will also know that that isn’t an option! I wish Goldikova was running again as that would make it an easy decision.
I’ll let my heart rule my head and go with Music Show despite saying I’ll never back her again.
Selection: Music Show Danger: The rest of the field
A 2yo race full of unknowns. Not my cup of tea at all! I guess Bowermaster will be popular along with the Hannon (won the race 3 times in the last 10 years) pair Enabling and Major Art. John Dunlop unleashed Elusive Pimpernel in this race last year and also won the race in 1996 with a top 2yo. Today he runs Yair Hill. There has been an almighty gamble on Bloodsweatandtears this morning but this is the first 2yo runner of the season from their small stable and he looks up against it here.
Selection: Bowermaster Danger: Yair Hill
The 3yo maiden revolves around the Group performer Mata Keranjang and whether he is just one of those horses who simply cannot win, no matter what the opposition is. I’d be prepred to take him on again and will be backing the Henry Cecil runner Short Break
Selection: Short Break Danger: Mata Keranjang
If you’re wondering why there’s such a big gap between the last two races at Newmarket today it’s because they’ve decided to stick an Arab race on at 4.55. That should get the crowds in. I wonder if Kempton are taking note?
And finally a mile handicap for the older horses. I don’t have a scooby here but I’ve had a lot of success over the years backing Keiren Fallon in these types of races and I’ll be having a small interest on Directorship.
Selection: Directorship
I’ll also be having a Placepot today on: 2-11-13 / 9-12-20 / 3 / 2-3-5-6 / 3-5-14 / 2-10
As always feel free to to what you like with them. Back them, lay them or ignore them!
If I’ve still got any money left after that little lot then it’s onto the football and back the Germans (did I really just say that!)
Good luck,
Gavin.