Day 5

‘Just’ a 10/1 winner yesterday for Gary but I can tell you he was gutted when Joseph Henry won the sprint. He’s tipped that one so many times before on this blog and was on his shortlist for the race but you just can’t back them all. Anyway, on to today and his tips for 3 of the races….

1.55 Goodwood

There are plenty with a chance in what looks a very competitive handicap but I’m going to side with the team that have been in blistering form all week. Hannon / Hughes team up with Valiant Knight who after winning his maiden has finished 4th and 2nd twice on his last three handicap starts. His last run was at Ascot where the 1m4f just seemed to stretch his stamina after staying on over 1m2f previously. It looks as if Hannon has found a perfect opportunity for him with this 1m3f race. Dangers are a plenty but I’m going to take a chance with big outsider Street Entertainer from the Amanda Perrett yard. Her handicappers are always worth looking out for at this meeting and this one has been dropping like a stone through water in the ratings. The funny thing is he hasn’t been running that badly and with the handicapper giving him a real chance at the weights he could easily run into a place.

Selection: VALIANT KNIGHT 8/1
Danger: STREET ENTERTAINER 33/1

3.40 Goodwood

It’s a bit strange that all my sprint runners have been well beaten this week as these are the types of races that I usually do well in. Hopefully that will all change today with one of my favourite races of the year. In the Stewards Cup I’m pinning my hopes on Striking Spirit who looks to be Dandy Nicholls’s number one hope in the race. His second in the Wokingham to handicap snip Laddies Poker Too with about half of this field strung out behind him looks top class handicap form and a 5lb rise for that effort doesn’t look too harsh. There are plenty I like in the race including old favourites Parisian Pyramid (has won me loads this season), Edge Closer (my big Wokingham fancy), Advanced and Singeur but a dark horse worth an each way interest at a big price may be Ancien Regime who is a 5yo rated 98 and more used to contesting Group 1’s than handicaps. In June 2009 he was rated 110 which would have put him on top weight here but due to his poor recent from he’s now been dropped 12lb. This would be his first run in a handicap since he was 3rd of 19 in a 6F contest at York as a 2yo. He was rated 103 that day and was sent of 5/1 favourite and as he is around 40/1 that looks value to me. Saeed Bin Suroor doesn’t have too many runners in these types of races but this one looks interesting from a good draw.

Selection: STRIKING SPIRIT 16/1
Danger: Ancien Regime 40/1

Again I’m leaving the fillies race and the two 2yo races well alone and going straight to the 5.25 for my final bets of the day….

5.25 Goodwood

Baylini finally transferred her excellent AW form to the turf last week with a win in a similar race to this at Sandown. The first two that day were 7 lengths clear of the third and with just a 4lb penalty to shoulder here will take all the beating. The one I see as the main danger to her is another Amanda Perrett runner Truism who ran a fine third on Tuesday behind the well handicapped Cumani horse Start Right. If that race hasn’t taken too much out of him then this drop in class looks a great opportunity for him to gain a deserved first success of the season.

Selection: BAYLINI 14/1
Danger: Truism 7/2

Good luck,
Gavin (and Gary).

DAY 4

I’m sure you’re all eagerly awaiting Gary’s tips for today so without further ado here they are….

2.10

I don’t usually go for the short prices, as you’ve probably gathered, but there’s no getting away from the fact that Duncan looks a very good bet in the first today. The form of his second in the Hardwicke couldn’t have worked out better with the winner storming to an 11 length win in the King George and the third and 4th winning Group 2’s next time out. Even Duncan’s 2nd to Barshiba in his previous run doesn’t look so bad now. With no Cavalryman in the field either anything around 6/4 would look excellent value. The obvious danger would be Redwood who also ran behind Harbinger at Ascot and then finished 2nd in a Group 2 at Newmarket.

Selection: DUNCAN  15/8
Danger: REDWOOD 10/1
 
2.45

I was really disappointed with my two in the sprint yesterday, not to mention that it cost me a massive payday, but these are the types of races I love the most and I’ll be having another go today with a couple of lively outsiders. Aye Aye Digby has run some very good races at the track including one last October when off the same mark as today. He’s since changed stables but they look to have found the key to him now and his last run was very encouraging. He’s got the draw and a little bit of rain would make him a rock solid each way wager. The other one (actually there’s about 8 in the race I usually back!) I like the look of is Oldjoesaid who most certainly isn’t a 33/1 shot. He ran a good 4th at York earlier in the season and then ran pretty well in the Dash at Epsom before running down the field in his last two races. He has excuses for both those defeats and now he’s re-united with Jamie Spencer I fancy him to run a big race

Selection:  AYE AYE DIGBY 22/1
Danger: OLDJOESAID 33/1

3.25

The ex-Clive Brittain trained Al Muheer looks an interesting proposition in the Mile handicap from his plum draw. He won a big handicap at Ascot last year and wasn’t disgraced in the race this year when trying to defend his title. He’s dropped a bit in the weights now and is actually 1lb lower than when winning his last race and a return to a mile on this track looks right up his street. I’m taking a bit of a chance on one drawn low for my other selection. Vitznau was fancied by a few shrewd judges for the race last year but could never land a blow despite a good draw back then. He comes into the race in much better form this time around having had some decent placed efforts in a few mile handicaps before finding the extra furlong too much at Epsom on his last outing. Hannon and Hughes have had an amazing week so far and at 40/1 it’s just too good a bet to leave alone.

Selection: AL MUHEER 20/1 
Danger: VITZNAU 40/1
 
5.45

I’ll miss out the two 2yo races as I have no interest in them at all and as the Oak Tree Stakes looks to revolve around likely odds on favourite Jacqueline Quest I’ll move straight to the last for my final picks of the day. I’m not sure what happened to Skylla last time out at Newmarket but prior to that she had run very well against older horses in a Newcastle sprint. She was a fairly decent 2yo and was deemed good enough to contest Listed races at the end of last season including running behind Mister Mannanan at Ayr. The return to 5f and her own age group should suit this speedy filly. Another runner who will appreciate the return to 5f is Living It Large who has been running consistently well all season and is sure to make a bold bid to lead all the way.

Selection:  SKYLLA 10/1
Danger: LIVING IT LARGE 20/1

I’m sure you don’t need telling just what a great piece of tipping that was yesterday but backing at these prices there are bound to be losers as well. Please bear in mind that nothing is guaranteed in racing and I wouldn’t want anyone getting carried away with his tips for today. Keep your stakes to normal levels and let’s hope for another great day.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Day 3

And so we move on to day 3 of the Festival. Gary had a well supported 9/1 winner yesterday along with a couple of decent priced places from his ‘danger’ selections. It means he’s now in front for the meeting and he’s decided to push the boat out today with a look at 6 races.

Personally, I had a good day Tuesday but did most of it back yesterday. I’ll give you a blow by blow account of my betting exploits next week which gives me three days to get it back together and, hopefully, make it less of a horror story.

Let’s see what today brings for Gary……

2.10 

Rigidity just got caught at York last time out after looking to have stolen the race at the furlong pole. His previous run saw him finish second to Dandino which looks just about the best form on offer here and if Tom Queally can deliver his challenge just a little later today I reckon he’ll take all the beating. Right Step started the season running 2nd to Wigmore Hall (John Smiths winner) but hasn’t been able to build on that run since. On that formline the 50/1 about him looks too big and with the drop back in trip he could make the frame.

Selection: RIGIDITY  10/1
Danger RIGHT STEP 50/1
 
2.45

Borderlescott is a dual Group 1 winner who rarely runs a bad race and absolutely loves Goodwood. In the last four years at the meeting he’s won the Stewards Cup, been placed in that race twice more and then finished 4th in this race last year. He’s getting on a bit now at 8 but this doesn’t look the strongest Group 2 race ever run and he is actually the top rated runner in the field. The one I like at a decent price is the Dandy Nicholl’s trained Mister Manannan who ran 2nd here in the Molecomb last season and won nicely first time up this year. He couldn’t get his usual prominent position when disappointing in the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot but should find this company a little easier to dominate.

Selection: BORDERLESCOTT  7/1
Danger: MISTER MANNANAN  20/1
 
3.25

In the Goodwood Cup I’m going for Purple Moon to reverse Ascot Gold Cup placings with Age of Aquarius on the grounds that this drop back to 2 miles looks sure to suit him. He’s due a big race win after being beaten narrowly 3 times in Group 1 company including the Melbourne Cup and with today’s conditions looking perfect I expect a big run from him. Electrolyser doesn’t have to find much improvement for his seasonal debut to finish in front of Illustrious Blue but may struggle to beat all of the main players here. At 40/1 though he might nick a place.

Selection: PURPLE MOON  15/2
Danger ELECTROLYSER  40/1
 
4.00

Eastern Aria is a typical Mark Johnston runner who is as tough as they come and difficult to pass when given the lead. She won a handicap at the meeting last year along with a French Listed race and then won a Newmarket handicap a fortnight ago in typically gutsy fashion. This is a bit of a step up in class for her but she’ll appreciate this step up in trip more than a few others in the race and should run well. Starfala tried the 2m6f of the Queen Alexandra last time out but although she ran well enough, unsurprisingly,  her stamina gave out over the last few furlongs. This 1m6f should be more to her liking and I can see her running well at a price.

Selection: EASTERN ARIA  9/1
Danger: STARFALA 25/1
 
5.10

Citrus Star absolutely stormed home from an impossible position last time out at Epsom and with a tidier break today will take all the beating here. Anyone looking for a big priced horse to back here could do worse than Freeforaday who returns to his own age group after finishing last in the ultra competitive Bunbury Cup last time out. Previous to that run he ran 4th in the Jersey Stakes and a reproduction of that form will put him bang in the picture here especially with Kieren Fallon booked.

Selection: CITRUS STAR  7/1
Danger: FREEFORADAY 28/1
 
5.45 

Mythical Blue won on his only previous start at Goodwood from a 2lb higher rating than he races of today. With the jockey enjoying an impressive 4 wins from 6 rides on the horse he looks massively overpriced at 25/1 and should make a bold attempt at leading all the way. Matsonuke seemed to appreciate the new surroundings of his latest stable when recapturing some of his old form at Ascot last time out. He was rated 112 at his best on the AW and while his turf form is knowhere near that level he is able to race off the same mark as last time. With both of those 2 selections running at either end of the stalls (1 and 17) we should have the draw covered!

Selection: MYTHICAL BLUE 25/1
Danger: MATSUNOSUKE 10/1

Good luck,
Gavin.

Day 2

 Not too good yesterday but I guess that’s what happens sometimes when you’re backing big priced outsiders. Undeterred, Gary’s having another go today on these 3 races….

2.10 Goodwood.

The usual assortment of hurdlers, chasers and long distance flat handicappers have been assembled to try their luck in the 2m5f handicap that opens todays card. The likely favourite is Junior who won a similar handicap at Royal Ascot by an easy 5 lengths and has been raised just 8lb for that success. However, he may find today’s course a little different from Ascot and I reckon Ghimaar can gain revenge on him on those 8lb better terms. He was sent off favourite for the Ascot race but was a little one-paced in the last couple of furlongs. Firm ground is no worry for him and a recent easy win over hurdles will have put him spot on for this. Dangers are a plenty with top weight Lady Eclair from the Mark Johnston yard looking to complete a 4 timer, Markington on a hat-trick and a very eye-catching  jockey booking of Kieren Fallon for the Tony Martin trained Dream Champion. But the one I’m hoping will re-find some of his form is the big priced outsider Mith Hill who had a good Winter over hurdles before disappointing in two flat races this Spring. If he’s back to something like his best the 40/1 could look big.

Selection: Ghimaar 9/1
Danger: Mith Hill 40/1

4.00 Goodwood

Berling got turned over at 2/5 last time out but I reckon we can forget that run as he doesn’t seem to like running left handed. He was very unlucky at Royal Ascot and now he’s back on a right-handed track I think we’ll see a return to the sort of form that saw him easily win a handicap at Newbury back in May. Amanda Perret usually manages to bag one of these handicaps at Goodwood and I’m hoping her Life and Soul can put a poor run at Royal Ascot behind him to run well at a big price. His 2nd at Epsom to Dandino (just beaten in the Gordon Stakes yesterday) reads very well and he had Verdant back in third too. With that one currently trading as the favourite Life and Soul’s 28/1 looks good value.

Selection: Berling 6/1
Danger: Life and Soul 28/1

5.10 Goodwood

This is a really tough race and small stakes are advised. I’m going to suggest a little each way bet on the complete outsider of the field Flapper who came into form at this time last year. She won a Newmarket handicap by 6 lengths to complete a quick double having won her previous race at York. Amy Scott claims a useful 7lb and 20/1 looks okay. William Hill go 11/1 about Seradim which seems a bit big and she will be my danger to the selection. She looks on a winning mark now having spent much of last season and this Spring on a rating in the high 80’s and 90’s and her two recent seconds show she’s in good form.

Selecton: Flapper 20/1
Danger: Seradim 11/1

As always do what you like with them….Back them, Lay them or Ignore them!

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Galway Plate.

It’s the feature race of the Galway meeting and there are also some very strong trends associated with the race. Our record in these types of chases is pretty good so let’s see if we can pinpoint this years winner…..

- All of the last 11 winners had run no more than 17 times over fences (5 of the last 6 winners had less than 10 career chase starts)
- All of the last 11 winners were aged 6-9yo (10/11 were 7-9yo’s)
- All of the last 11 winners were rated less than 143 (9/11 were rated 123-143)
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 10-13 or less
- 10 of the last 11 winners had won over at least 2m4f
- 8 of the last 11 winners had won within their last 2 starts (2 exceptions were dual winner Ansar)

The race usually goes the way of a younger horses who is lightly raced, proven at the trip (or slightly shorter) and comes here on the back of a recent win.

I’m going to stick with the 7yo’s and go for Dessie Hughes runner Sarteano. His last 3 runs have seen him take in a chase, flat race and hurdle! but this return to chasing should continue his improvement and at around 25/1 he looks excellent each way value.

Good luck,
Gavin

Day 1

With my fancies either running for the Summer Special or Festival Trends Guides I’ve asked my brother Gary to take a look at a few of the races at Goodwood today for those readers who are looking for a different angle. Regular readers will know that he’s not one to pick the easy races or the short priced favourites and it won’t come as a big surprise to see his runners lining up for the three big field handicaps at massive odds.

As with any selections given out on the blog, do what you like with them….Back them, Lay them or Ignore them!

2.10 Goodwood

In the 2.10 we again see a 16 runner handicap reduced to just 15 runners so we are only looking at 3 places for our each way wagers. Never mind because we intend to back the winner anyway! The one I’m looking to for that is Ramona Chase.  A one time winner in a 30 race career doesn’t exactly read too well but amongst the form is some very good quality place runs. Two runs ago he was 2nd to Fiery Lad, last August he ran 3rd to Cill Rialaig (Royal Ascot winner this year) and if you go back far enough you’ll also see he ran 2nd to Conduit (multiple Group 1 winner) giving him 10lb! He’s now back to the same rating which saw him run that 2nd to Fiery Lad and from the bottom of the weights on a course he’s ran well at before 40/1 looks too big.

There are a number of horses running here that I have tipped at some point over the season, including Mark Johnston’s pair Tartun Gunna and Tartan Gigha, but the strongest form here is that of the likely favourite Australia Days who won the Summer hurdle at Market Rasen last Saturday week  beating Gloucester by 19 lengths. The other I do like the look of is Gaily Noble and she would be my danger.
 
Selection: ROMONA CHASE 40/1
Danger: GAILY NOBLE

4.35 Goodwood
 
Next we look at the 4.35 a 1 mile handicap with 20 runners. Unfortunately I can’t go with my main choice here as he is drawn 6 which is a very poor draw over this course and distance. Huzzah would have been a very confident selection if he had been drawn in the high teens which is where my second choice is drawn. Coming out of stall 15 Hail Promenader looks to have a very decent chance of getting back to winning ways with Frankie in the saddle. He’s another who has only managed one career win but again has run some good races in defeat and you can forget his run last time out as he was forced to run wide throughout. He likes to race prominently (which is never a bad thing at Goodwood) and from his high draw should go well at a big price.

Other possibilities are Truism and Kay Gee Bee who I was very keen on a few weeks ago only for him to win next time out.
 
Selection: HAIL PROMENADER 25/1
Danger HUZZAH

5.40 Goodwood
 
The last race is the 5.40 a 1m6f handicap which sees my best bet of the day running. I tipped  Becausewecan at Royal Ascot and although he didn’t run too well that day he certainly left that form behind when he was 5th over 2m at Ascot on Saturday. This drop back in trip is sure to suit and a front running Mark Johnston trained 20/1 shot looks far too good a bet to miss.

Possible dangers are Anhar for Frankie, last years runner up Precision Break and the gallant hurdler Sentry Duty.
 
Selection: BECAUSEWECAN 20/1
Danger PRECISION BREAK
 
Recommended Bet

Romona Chase 1pt ew 40/
Hail Promenader 1pt ew 25/1
Becausewecan 1pt ew 20/1

plus 0.25pt ew trixie (3 ew doubles and an ew treble) = 8pt staked

If those three do the business then I’m sure there’ll be a lot of bookmakers running for cover!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Unfortunately I didn’t make it to Vegas this year for my birthday. Despite going on a decent winning run since Ascot I couldn’t really justify the extortionate price of the flights given we’re trying to buy a holiday home in Devon. I blame Richard Hughes for not winning on Paco Boy at Royal Ascot, some horrendous bad beats on the poker tables and myself for not having enough on Twice Over in the Eclipse, Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby or Music Show in the Flamouth Stakes. There’s always next year!

So it was a home based birthday bash which started off with some 20/20 cricket at the Swalec Stadium on Friday. Glamorgan Dragons vs the Kent Spitfires wasn’t the greatest match ever played but it was building to an exciting climax when the rain came down with 7 overs to go. According to Mr Duckworth and Mr Lewis, Kent would have won by 14 runs which is probably about right given Glamorgan’s pretty laboured run chase. It was a great night out spoilt only by the weather.

On the Saturday we headed down to Torbay letting the ‘train take the strain’ for a few days with my mum. I spent the journey with an intermittent internet connection but was able to check the results and find that Grand Slam Hero had done the business for me but Ballista hadn’t. Coincidentally it was on Bristol station that I found out that Temple Meads had won the Super Sprint. I should have had a saver on that one!

On the Sunday we met up with my brothers, sister and nephews for a day at Newton Abbot races. It was a lovely afternoon with some average racing and below average cheeseburgers! The day was made even better when Strong Coffee left some pretty poor form well behind to score an all the way success at 25/1. My £10ew more than paid for the weekend and recouped the £20 I lost on the horse when he got stuffed at Ffos Las the night we went there.

On the Monday we acted like grockles and took Dylan to Babbacombe Model Village. I probably haven’t been since I was Dylan’s age but as far as I can remember not a lot has changed, except the admission charges! Lunch on Babbacombe Downs followed by a walk down to the beach and a ride back on the cliff railway completed a very decent morning and afternoon.

A quick visit to see my magician mate Zak, an afternoon pottering around Paignton and a 4 hour train journey was Tuesday over with and now only 6 1/2 weeks of the school holiday are left to entertain a hyperactive 6yo. Roll on September…….

——-

ASCOT KING GEORGE VI & QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES

8 runners are due to contest the Summer’s big 12f race and it sees the Classic generation take on their elders in an eagerly awaited clash. Is Workforce the real deal or are the 3yo’s a big bunch of duds?

We’ll find out for sure on Saturday but until then here are my thoughts on the 8 runners….

Confront: He’s 200/1 but given the way he struggled in a 10f Listed race last time out you’d have to say that even those odds are a bit tight. He’s in the field purely as a pacemaker for Workforce and unless all of the other 7 runners take the wrong course he’ll not be winning.

Harbinger: He’s currently 5/2 2nd favourite and seems to be improving with each run. He took a couple of Group 3’s at the start of the season but it was his win last time out when stepped up to Group 2 class that marked him down as a genuine contender. That race was the Hardwicke stakes over this distance  at Royal Ascot and it saw him spreadeagle the field to come home by 3 1/2 lengths. The 3rd home Barshiba was beaten 9 1/2 lengths but has since won the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks while the 4th horse Sans Frontieres (beaten 11 lengths) and the 5th horse Redwood (beaten 12 lengths) finished 1st and 2nd in the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes at Newmarket. All of which seems to suggest the form of that Royal Ascot win is pretty decent. On the downside, he’s yet to win (or race) at Group 1 class and that is something 12 of the last 13 winners had achieved.

Youmzain: Say what you like about the horse but what you can’t deny is that 99.9% of owners would swap their horse for him. He’s managed just 6 wins from his 30 starts but has accumulated £3,286,569 in win and placed prizemoney after finishing in the top 3 on 21 occassions. Saturday will be his 22nd consecutive start in Group 1 company and his third appearance in this race, he finished 2nd in 2007 behind Dylan Thomas and 3rd in 2008 behind Duke of Marmalade. In a below average King George he must have a great chance of making the frame again but he just can’t be relied upon to win. We also have to consider the fact that age is no longer on his side as only one horse aged over 5 has won since 1951 (the mighty Swain who won as a 6yo in 1998).

Dar Re Mi: She’s won Group 1 races in Britain, Ireland and Dubai and would have added France to that list if it weren’t for the biased local stewards at Longchamp last Autumn. She also ran 3rd to 2009 King George winner Conduit in the Breeders Cup Turf last season and on that form would have an outstanding chance. Her Group 1 win in Dubai in March is also top form which would put her in the shake-up for this race but you have to balance all that with her disappointing run in the Eclipse when she faded into 4th place behind Twice Over. You could argue that she needed the run that day as she hadn’t been out since her Dubai victory or that the distance was too short for her but what you can’t argue with is that you have to go back to 1983 to find the last filly or mare to win the King George (Time Charter).

Daryakana: Another female runner, the French filly won all of her 5 races last season culminating in a defeat of Spanish Moon in a Group 1 race at Sha Tin, Hong Kong. It’s difficult to work out the form of that race (Youmzain was back in 10th that day) but a strict line through the  runner-up would leave her with a lot to find with Harbinger. She’s been 3rd in both her runs this season (just behind Youmzain last time out) and would need a career best to take the honours on Saturday.

At First Sight: One of three horses representing the Classic generation and one of two runners from the O’Brien stable. Much like the Derby he looks likely to take the role of the pacemaker for his more fancied stablemate but we all know what happened at Epsom! He’s failed to build on that 100/1 2nd though and his form since the Derby has been less than inspiring. With Confront also likely to be used as a pacemaker we should at least get a true run race.

Cape Blanco: He won the Irish Derby last time out and also has a victory over Workforce to his name. His only defeat came in the French Derby where, in a typically French style of race, the sudden lifting of the pace seemed to catch him out. There were no mistakes in the Irish version where off a more even gallop he was able to exert his authority in the final furlong and beat the Epsom 2nd, 4th and 5th. It’s worth noting that although Aiden O’Brien has managed to win the race 3 times since 2001 he’s never won the race with a 3yo.

Workforce: All eyes will be on the 7 length Derby winner as hopefully a few questions will finally be answered. Did we witness the performance of a new racing superstar at Epsom? or Was it the poorest renewal of the Derby in recent times? Do we look to the clock and recognise his Derby win as one of the best ever? or do we look at the form book and ask, Is a 7 length beating of At First Sight really that good? Personally, I don’t think he’s good enough to win here and at around even money he certainly doesn’t look value at all. Sir Michael Stoute’s last two Derby winners (North Light and Kris Kin) failed to win another race between them after Epsom and I think a similar fate awaits Workforce.

One recent trend that is not very well known is that all of the last 13 winners of the King George were Irish Bred. It’s quite a good stat as only 3 Irish Bred horses went to post last year and they had the first two home. It was a similar story in 2008 when 4 of the 8 runners were bred in Ireland but they provided the 1st and 3rd and in 2007  all of the 5 Irish bred runners filled the top 5 places. It’s not even as if they have had an advantage of runners, as since 1999 there have been 50 Irish Bred horses and 51 horses bred from other parts of the world. In this years race there are only 3 Irish Bred runners Cape Blanco, At First Sight and Youmzain.

Youmzain looks good for a place but all the 20/1 is well gone and he doesn’t make much appeal at around the 12/1 mark. A better value outsider may now be Dar Re Mi who is a big danger if back to her best. I’m torn between Cape Blanco and Harbinger but with the Irish breeding stat still fresh in my mind and the very decent odds of 13/2 currently available on him I will side with Cape Blanco.

Selection: Cape Blanco 5pts ew

(Victor Chandler is currently offering each way terms of 1/4 odds the first three and with the possibility of less than 8 runners lining up it looks worth taking the slightly smaller odds of 6/1 and betting him win and place.)

——-

Trends and TTS

The Trends carried on their good post-Ascot run at Market Rasen on Saturday when our joint selections for the Summer Plate (Grand Slam Hero & Putney Bridge) finished 1st and 2nd to give us a 9/1 winner and the £100 forecast.  The winner was also a Summer Jumps TTS horse which meant that with all our other winners over the weekend we are now up over 20pts (at starting price!) in less than 3 weeks that the Summer Special has been running. Stop Press: Our only runner yesterday won by 5 lengths at 2/1 beating the odds on favourite…….. Stop Press: Our 2yo TTS guide gave 9/1 winner (matched at 11.5 on the ‘bot) Sky Falcon at Leicester tonight………

It didn’t all go smoothly with the TTS horses though as we had Mumbles Pier down as a selection on the Sunday. He had two entries over the weekend and his trainer decided to run him on the Saturday instead. The darn thing only went and won a day early at 28/1!

It’s still not too late to join in the Bookie Bashing and with Glorious Goodwood coming up next week there’s never been a better time to join.

For just £27 you will get the Summer Jumps Trainer Track Stats Guide, the 2yo TTS Guide, The Glorious Goodwood Trends, stats for the Ebor and St Leger meetings, 15 horses to follow, Gary’s Stewards Cup fancies and as a Special Bonus I’ll throw in the trends for this weekends Ascot King George. 8 top quality betting guides for just £27.

PLUS….

The daily selections are emailed out FREE each morning or for just £20 you can use our automated betting ‘bot to place all your bets for you.

Sign-up for just £27 at http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

Flush from my success at the track last week I’m going to play up some of my winnings on a few runners tonight…

3 for Newmarket

The first is an unraced 2yo from the Henry Cecil yard who runs in the 6.20. The three to have run previously in the race don’t look any great shakes and it seems to rest with those representing the big stables. Henry Cecil had his first, first time out juvenile winner of the season last Saturday and as he does very well with his fillies at the track I’m siding with Panoptic. Richard Hannon’s Native Picture would be the obvious danger.

In the 6.55 it’s the bottom weight Goolagong that catches my eye. The stable is in blinding form at the moment and after a confidence boosting win in a maiden last time out she returns to handicapping. The 7f now looks like her optimum distance and off her rating of 71 can take this tight looking handicap. The jockey booking for the Michael Bell trained Syrian also catches my eye as the horse has looked a bit of a hard ride of late and may well respond to some ‘firmer’ handling from Kieren Fallon.

In the last I like the look of Edgeworth who looks just the type to make the frame at a biggish price. He was having a pretty decent season last year, winning 3 times, until the handicapper got hold of him and pushed him up to a rating of 77 for a comfortable win in a Leicester handicap. He’s struggled at and around that mark in his 7 runs since but has now been dropped to 72 which is just 1lb more than that he raced off for that Leicester win. A straight mile on good to firm going looks perfect and 14/1 looks a good each way bet. Let’s hope all 16 runners start so we get the full 4 places paid.

If anyone likes backing the short prices there is one from the Richard Hannon yard that runs in the 7.25 tonight that I can’t see getting beaten. Elnawin’s form his head and shoulders above anything else in the race and with his main danger Nota Bene having to give him 5lb there should be no excuses here. He ran a 3 1/4length 5th to Equiano back in May and that looks plenty good enough to take this conditions race.

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Here are three 2yo’s I’ve noted down for future reference…….

Marzante

A 2yo from the Roger Charlton stable, he ran second at Salisbury last Saturday to a Richard Hannon (who else!) newcomer. He was steadily backed before the race and raced prominently throughout but was unable to match the winners finishing speed over the last half furlong. He looked like the experience would do him the world of good and I’d expect him to go one better next time out if he’s kept in the same sort of class.

Bloodsweatandtears

He was pitched in at the deep end by his small stable when contesting a class 2 maiden at the Newmarket July meeting on his first ever start but there was a lot of market confidence in him as he was gambled on from 25/1 in the morning right down to 8/1. In the race he ran very green and got slightly hampered but the way he stayed on at the end showed why the stable hold him in such high regard. With this run under his belt he should have no problem picking up a maiden especially if dropped in grade.

Satin Love

The way he won his maiden yesterday marked him down as a very decent colt. It was only a 4 runner Class 5 maiden at Hamilton but I doubt there’s been an easier 2yo winner all season and Mark Johnston will do doubt be stepping him up significantly in class for his next run. He led all the way and only had to be shaken up at the furlong pole to sprint clear of the field for an eased down 5 length win. The long trip to Goodwood may now be on the cards.

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Summer Special Package

The Summer Special Offer is still available. It’s £27 for 8 Guides including the TTS Juveniles which had that Mark Johnston 5 length winner yesterday from its only selection. We have three 2yo’s running for us this afternoon.

There is also now the option of using our TTS Bot which automatically places all your bets for you…..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

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Super Sprint

After the success of last weeks free trends guide (we tipped 5/1 winner Wigmore Hall) I thought I’d repeat the offer and giveaway the Super Sprint from Newbury tomorrow.

It’s the same again: 100% Free, No Catch,  No signups, No Card Details, Just a direct link to the Guide……
http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1654&i=l16

Good luck,
Gavin.

I hope everyone enjoyed the free trends guide on Saturday for the John Smith’s Cup and had enough on our selection, Wigmore Hall, to pay for a nice weekend. It capped a pretty good week for me which went something like this….

I really like Newmarket, I’ve had quite a bit of success there over the years and remember spending an excellent day on the July course with a big group of family and friends for my 30th birthday. For those of you reading this who were there that day, can you believe it was 12 years ago this Saturday? 1998. France had just won the World Cup, President Clinton was in trouble for ‘ not having sexual relations’ with Monica Lewinsky, Old Blue Eyes (Frank Sinatra for any under 25’s reading this Blog) popped his clogs and James Cameron was making men heave and women swoon with possibly the most hideous movie ever to be committed to celluloid, Titanic. Even the ending was predictable. That was 3 hours 15 minutes of my life I won’t be getting back! At least they can’t make a sequel…..

Oh, and I didn’t have any grey hair or a beer gut back then either.

What I do have now though is a son called Dylan and in the first race Dylanesque was running from the Michael Jarvis yard. I started backing her last season purely because of the name (I know, I know, Rule #237 of the good punter: back with your head, not with your heart!) but she has some pretty decent form and was unlucky on her first run of the season when just getting caught at Sandown. The 10/1 looked a pretty decent each way bet and I had £30ew at those odds. She ran well to finish 6th but not well enough for me to be paid. We should have called our son Folly Bridge…..

In the next I was sweet on the chances of Gene Autry (coincidentally the ‘Singing Cowboy’ also died in 1998) and had £40ew at 10/1. I also had £10ew at 28/1 on Excellent Guest and was going to back Fireback as well but as I’d missed the 28’s in the morning I couldn’t bring myself to back him at 16’s. What fantastic logic that was as Fireback came home a length and a bit in front of Gene Autry at a still respectable price of 12/1. I made a little on the race but missing out on 16/1 winners isn’t a good strategy if you want to make your betting pay. At least my Placepot was still going and after the first two races it was looking like it could pay a few quid……..

I’d done the trends for the  Cherry Hinton and Memory was one of the strongest selections we’ve had for a while. I thought she’d be 4/6 but was hoping for evens so when 5/4 became available I couldn’t help myself and had £200 at the price. I also had a £20 straight forecast with Channon’s horse Soraaya. For the first time in ages I had read the race perfectly. To quote the late George Peppard (died 1994) as Hannibal Smith ‘I love it when a plan comes together’….

Confidence in the Priestley camp was now sky high and the solution to the trickiest race of the day now seemed more straightforward. Music Show deserved a change in luck having suffered the worst of the draw in all her last 3 starts and if she was to prove herself the best 3yo filly then this was her perfect opportunity. I’d had £50 at 10’s in the morning and topped it up with another £30 at 8’s. Hughsie rode her beautifully and I was as happy as Larry (though not jazz musician Larry Adler who died in 2001)……

The two year maiden didn’t float my boat and as my Placepot was still going I decided to leave the race alone. It was also time to pick Dylan up from school and take him to the park for the daily kickabout with his mates. I rolled the years back and put on a dazzling display of flicks, back heels, step-overs and volleys. Lionel Messi eat your heart out. Those 6yo kids were no match for me…….

I got home to find my Placepot was still going and the dividend looking like it was going to pay around the £800 mark. I had my doubts about Mata Keranjang winning but thought he’d definitely make the frame and along with Henry Cecil’s Short Break I was feeling pretty good about the race. In an act of extreme greed I also foolishly had £25ew at 21 on Cecil’s horse. Despite what Gordon Gekko may tell you, greed is not good….

The Placepot paid £1300 and the wheels had fallen off what had looked like being a really promising day but there was still Fallon in the last at Newmarket. I had £20ew on Directorship which ran no race and ended the day pretty much how I started it, hating all Directors associated with Ships!

Thursday and the missus had me down for a bit of shopping in Cardiff. Oh joy, 3 hours of traipsing around New Look, Dorothy Perkins and Debenhams being asked my opinion on a variety of outfits she’ll never wear. Which one do you like? The red one? Oh, I thought the blue one looked better. Why bloody ask then! At least lunch in Jamie Oliver’s restaurant was good. I did manage to dodge the obligatory walk around Boots make-up department though and nip into William Hills to have my bets.

Three £10 Doubles and a £2o Treble on Corsica (won 15/8), Elzaam (lost) and Spanish Moon( lost) was disappointing but £40 Critical Moment and £20ew Arlequin weren’t. What did for me on the Thursday (apart from the shopping) was the £60 Ransom Note and £100 Spanish Moon. My losses for the day were small and I lived to fight another day. Unlike Mrs Mary Conroy who died this day (8th July) in 1998. She was 108, and at the time Irelands oldest woman. Amazingly she was all set to sail on the Titanic having purchased her ticket some weeks before but when she found out 5 of her fellow parishioners were travelling to America on another ship the following week she sold her ticket and got her money back. A true story and probably the best bit of ‘greening up’ in history…….

Friday 9th July. Another day another dollar. Unless you’re the 12th President of the United States, Zachary Taylor who didn’t get the chance to earn his dollars having dropped dead of gastroenteritis on this morning in 1850.

Very rarely do things pan out exactly as you think but Friday’s first race went pretty much as I expected with the favourite looking too high in the handicap, Dance East not staying the stiff mile and Sea Lord leading all the way under a terrific ride from Amy Ryan. £4oew at 7/1 was a great start to the day and I spent the next 5 minutes patting myself on the back…

Back to Earth with a bump as my £40 Ecliptic in the next looked good until swerving right, then left and getting beaten a neck. He was fortunate to win his last run at Sandown when his only serious rival dumped his jockey so I guess the hand of fate was just evening things out….

The Bunbury Cup is no longer the Bunbury Cup. It’s now the 32Red Trophy which doesn’t have quite the same ring to it but is my favourite number on the roulette wheel so the omens were looking good. Incidentally, The Bunbury Cup is named after Lord Bunbury who was a major player in horseracing in the 18th century. He’s most famous for tossing a coin with Lord Derby to see who would name the new race for colts and fillies over 1m4f. Lord Derby won the toss and The Derby was born while Lord Bunbury got a 7f handicap at Newmarket for his troubles. Lord Bunbury did have the last laugh though as his horse Diomed won the very first Derby in 1780. He died (Lord Bunbury that is, not Diomed) 31st March 1821.

As it turned out the omens weren’t that good as mine and Gary’s (plus quite a few other punters judging by his price) big hope Noble Citizen ran out of steam some way out. £40ew at 20/1 wasn’t my best investment of the week by some way….

The July Cup and I had it down to three: Starspangled Banner, Society Rock and Equiano. I thought the best policy was £20ew on the two outsiders at 16/1 and two £5 reversed forecasts on each one with the favourite. It was a great race which didn’t quite have a great result but it was my second forecast of the week and I can’t remember the last time that happened, if ever.

Another 2yo maiden race that conveniently coincided with my daily exhibition of footballing skills in the local park. Again I got home to find my placepot was still going but this time it wasn’t going to pay a bumper dividend.

I’d had £50 at 5/2 on Rerouted before I’d left to pick Dylan up but although I got the price I didn’t get the result. 3rd was the best he could do and for the first time ever it wasn’t even Michael Hills’s fault, the horse just wasn’t good enough. It left me feeling completely unsatisfied not being able to blame Michael Hills. Oh well there’s always another day (but not for American actor Rod Steiger who died this day in 2002)…..

Onwards and upwards (which was probably the path taken by Pope Benedict VI who died on the 10th July 983).

I had one thing on my mind today and that was poker. The missus had bought me into a poker tournament as an early birthday present (I’m easily pleased) and was really looking forward to it. It was part of the Grosvenor Poker Tour and as well as the cash prizes on offer there was a shiny trophy and a seat in the Champions of Champions tournament later in the year. Bring it on!

I spent the morning walking around Penarth with the family taking in the joys of Pirate Day. It’s a really fun day where everyone in the town dresses up and while the kids play on the bouncy castle the adults get ‘three sheets to the wind’ on rum and coke. But my mind was elsewhere with dreams of fame and fortune and my enthusiasm for playing Blackbeard (died November 21st 1718) was wearing thin. If I see another inflatable parrot or if someone says ‘Pieces of Eight’ to me one more time I’m going to make them walk the plank….

Obviously on the way back I made the traditional detour into Betfred’s only to be greeted by all the staff wearing cheap tri-corner pirate hats. Shiver me timbers! I’ll give you ‘ahoy, my heartie’ you ’scurvy dogs’! I just want £80 Wigmore Hall please…

And so finally I was able to abandon the eye patch and make for the Grosvenor Casino. Oh boy, was I in for a major disappointment. Just 7 people had bothered to register for the tournament and 3 of those had made the trip from Portsmouth. According to the rules, 10 players were the minimum required for the contest to go ahead but taking pity on the 3 intrepid Hampshire lads the card room manager gave it the green light. We all decided beforehand to take our entry stake back and just play for the Trophy and Seat. For the second time that day my heart wasn’t in it and shortly after Wigmore Hall had won the John Smiths my set of 8’s were rivered by the nut flush. Hasta La Vista Baby….

With my returned entry fee for the poker I’ve bought myself in for the Amateur Poker Championships being held in Nottingham at the end of August. With over 300 entries already confirmed at least that won’t be a wasted trip. I just hope my luck holds until then…

Good luck,
Gavin.

I didn’t have too bad a day on Wednesday and only finished a little behind yesterday so funds are still intact for what looks like a bumper days punting. I’ll give you a full rundown of my recent betting activities on Monday and you can expect these horses to feature…

1.30 Newmarket.

A tricky handicap to start off with where I could give a chance to quite a few of them. That doesn’t though include the favourite Highland Knight whose rating of 87 looks a little high considering what he’s actually acheived so far. He’ll probably go and skate in now but if he does, he won’t be carrying any of my money. The way Dance East finished his race off last time makes me wonder whether he’ll be able to stay a mile in this company and I think a better bet is the topweight Sea Lord. As I said on Wednesday (just before Fireback won) the form of the Britannia this year looks worth following and Sea Lord finished 8th in that race. He has since come out and won a big handicap at the Curragh and with Amy Ryan claiming a useful 5lb I reckon his winning spree can continue. The consistent Finest Reserve can chase him home.

Selection: Sea Lord Danger Finest Reserve

2.00 Newmarket

I’m not sure whether Ecliptic would have won his race at Sandown if Frankie hadn’t been dumped on the floor by the second favourite but they were both 8 lengths clear of anything else at the time and it didn’t look too bad a race. It is however a big step up in class here so I’ll be siding with the runner that won a Group 2 last time out from the O’Brien horse Samuel Morse. That’s tip top form and if Formosina is able to shoulder the 3lb Group penalty he’ll take all the beating.

Selection: Formosina Danger: Ecliptic

2.35 Newmarket

Having had Gene Autrey (3rd), Break Heart (2nd) and Arquelin (3rd) in the big field handicaps this week I’m hoping it’s third time lucky for my Bunbury Cup selection. My choice, the trends pick and Gary’s hopes will all be resting on the same horse in the race and that’s usually a lethal combination. If Matt were to pick him as well then he would be a 5 star nap. Our big hope is Noble Citizen who ran 4th in the Victoria Cup and 6th in the Hunt Cup where he faded in the last 150yds. Off bottom weight the 18/1 looks big for a horse drawn well and with the assistance of William Buick can make the frame at the very least. 3yo’s don’t have a great record in the Bunbury Cup (although they don’t have that many runners) but the way Freeforaday ran last time out in the Jersey Stakes he could change all that. The step up in trip seemed to bring about massive improvement and 20/1 is value. Everymanforhimself can run well in these big field handicaps if the mood takes him and odds of 33/1 may be worth a small each way interest if anyone is looking for a big priced outsider

Selection: Noble Citizen Danger: Freeforaday

3.10 Newmarket

The July Cup looks a virtual re-run of the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot with the rest of the field made up of Kings Stand runners from the Tuesday of the meeting. I’m sure Equiano will make life difficult for Starspangledbanner up front and they’ll be taking no prisoners in what’s going to be a very fast run race. Blink and you’ll miss this! It may pay to find a horse able to sit off the pace and challenge late on which is exactly what I expect Society Rock to do. 3yo’s have a good record in the race and he doesn’t have a lot to find with the favourite so at 14/1 he’s my idea of a value each way bet. Given his much improved form this year I’d like to think Equiano could finish in the frame too.

Selection: Society Rock Danger: Equiano

3.45 Newmarket

A 2yo race for fillies isn’t my cup of tea at all. Mick Channon usually unveils a decent filly in July so I’ll be watching Layla Jamil and also Hannon’s horse Our Way Only given his 2yo form this week. Suroors Ragsah looks the one they all have to beat though.

Selection: Layla Jamil (e/w) Danger: Ragsah

4.20 Newmarket

I used to love these 2yo Nursery’s but I’ve not been having a lot of luck in them recently. With all the top 10 runners in the handicap having won 1 of their last two races it probably won’t be changing here as this looks really tough. Breathless Storm looks a real monkey but he obviously has ability to match his wayward tendancies as his 5th to Royal Ascot winner Zaidan confirms. The one that I really like the look of though is Barry Hills’s Rerouted who began his career by running Elzaam to 3 lengths in a Class 3 maiden at York.

Selection: Rerouted Danger: Breathless Storm

I’ll try again with the Placepot. I’m still gutted it went down on the last leg on Wednesday….

1-10 / 1-2 / 11-15-17-20 / 2-11-14 / 6-9-10 / 2-6

As always, do what you like with them: Back them, lay them or ignore them!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Having now got myself back on an even keel (thank you Twice Over) after the horrors of Royal Ascot it’s time to pull on the punting boots again and take a look at Newmarket this afternoon…

A class 2 7f handicap for 3yo fillies kickstarts the meeting and I can’t help wondering where Clairvoyance is. This is just the type of race I’m looking for her to run in and she would have been a strong fancy of mine for it. Ah well there’s always Dylanesque. She’s a filly I’ve been following since her highly touted debut last August and was desperately unlucky to get caught on the line on her first run this season. The Michael Jarvis yard have been knocking the winners in of late and she should be in the shakeup.

These fillies only handicaps are notoriously difficult to work out and there are plenty of dangers including the favourite Maid In Heaven. Her only recent defeat came on soft ground and she’s progessing well but she has been raised another 9lb since her last win and that might catch her out in this stronger contest. One who does look nicely handicapped is Don’t Tell Mary who drops to handicap company for the first time having run in Group contests since wnning the Hilary Needler by 4 lengths last May. At around 25/1 she could make the frame. But the one horse I’m really worried about is the bottom weight Alice Alleyne who in a Yarmouth maiden last season got beat a shorthead by Dylaneasque off level weights. She comes from the Sir Michael Stoute yard, has Ryan Moore on board and ran on strongly over 6f last time out.

Selection: Dylanesque Danger: Alice Alleyne

Another 3yo handicap, this time over 6f, which doesn’t look any easier to solve than the first race. A lot of these runners contested a similar race on the same course back in May when Swilly Ferry won very nicely from Excellent Guest. That he wasn’t able to get competitive next time out suggests to me that the handicapper now has him in his grasp although 25/1 is a big price if you can forgive him that run in a big field handicap at York. I think the form of the Britannia handicap at Royal Ascot will prove to be very reliable over the coming months and Fireback ran very well in that race. At 28/1 he could be interesting although he is taking a marked drop in trip. There are also a few last time out winners in the field who command respect not least of which is Gene Autrey from the Richard Hannon stable. Dropped in grade to a class 4 handicap last time out he won by 4 lengths and from a good draw will take all the beating. Kellys Eye is going for a 4 timer here having won a Grade 5/4/3 handicap in his last 3 runs but another 9lb for his last win makes this a very tough assignment. Deacon Blues also has an extra 9lb to shoulder after his win in an all aged handicap last time out where he defeated the reliable yardstick Angus Newz by 3 1/2 lengths. He comes here at the top of his game and from a low draw looks a worthy favourite. The one horse I can’t get away from though is the bottom weight Excellent Guest who has landed a plum draw in stall 1, didn’t stay the trip in the Britannia last time out and had previously run 2nd to Swilly Ferry in the Coral Sprint. How on earth he is 25/1 is beyond me.

Selection: Gene Autrey Danger: Excellent Guest

The 2.35 looks good for Memory to follow up her Albany win at Royal Ascot. She’s a strong trends horse and at evens or better will be carrying some of my money. Mick Channon enjoys a lot of succes with his 2yo’s on the July course and his once raced Soraaya may be able to make the step up in class to chase Memory home.

Selection: Memory Danger: Soraaya

Onto the feature race of the day, the Falmouth Stakes. There’s plenty in this race I’ve done before and I’ve put Lillie Langtry in my list of horses to follow. The booking of Tom Queally on Special Duty could sway me towards her while I have a real niggling feeling that Spacious will win this as James Fanshawe has a great record in the race and she doesn’t have a lot to find on Windsor Forest form. Longtime sufferers readers of this blog will know that Strawberrydaiquiri and Music Show are also horses I regularly back making it a real quandary for me. I could even make a case for the 50/1 outsider Lahaleeb. Obviously the best solution would be to not have a bet but longtime readers will also know that that isn’t an option! I wish Goldikova was running again as that would make it an easy decision.

I’ll let my heart rule my head and go with Music Show despite saying I’ll never back her again.

Selection: Music Show Danger: The rest of the field

A 2yo race full of unknowns. Not my cup of tea at all! I guess Bowermaster will be popular along with the Hannon (won the race 3 times in the last 10 years) pair Enabling and Major Art. John Dunlop unleashed Elusive Pimpernel in this race last year and also won the race in 1996 with a top 2yo. Today he runs Yair Hill. There has been an almighty gamble on Bloodsweatandtears this morning but this is the first 2yo runner of the season from their small stable and he looks up against it here.

Selection: Bowermaster Danger: Yair Hill

The 3yo maiden revolves around the Group performer Mata Keranjang and whether he is just one of those horses who simply cannot win, no matter what the opposition is. I’d be prepred to take him on again and will be backing the Henry Cecil runner Short Break

Selection: Short Break Danger: Mata Keranjang

If you’re wondering why there’s such a big gap between the last two races at Newmarket today it’s because they’ve decided to stick an Arab race on at 4.55. That should get the crowds in. I wonder if Kempton are taking note?

And finally a mile handicap for the older horses. I don’t have a scooby here but I’ve had a lot of success over the years backing Keiren Fallon in these types of races and I’ll be having a small interest on Directorship.

Selection: Directorship

I’ll also be having a Placepot today on: 2-11-13 / 9-12-20 / 3 / 2-3-5-6 / 3-5-14 / 2-10

As always feel free to to what you like with them. Back them, lay them or ignore them!

If I’ve still got any money left after that little lot then it’s onto the football and back the Germans (did I really just say that!)

Good luck,
Gavin.

In a new feature I’m going to take a look at the winners and losers from last week.

KING OF THE CASTLE

Henry Cecil, Tom Queally, Twice Over and me!

It wasn’t a vintage renewal and there were only 5 runners but it was still a Group 1 and they don’t just give them away. Twice Over was only 1 of two previous Group 1 winners in the field and with Tom Queally adopting new and very affective front running tactics he showed his class by grinding them into the ground. I love this horse nearly as much as those at Warren Place and after his unlucky Ascot defeat he certainly deserved this win. It was Cecil’s first Eclipse winner since the late 70’s and the crowd gave him a raptuous reception. All that’s missing now is that long overdue knighthood. Arise Sir Henry.

Oh, and £200 at 11/4 completed my fightback from the horrors of Ascot. Vegas is now 50/50 for my birthday which is a lot better than the 95/5 it was after the Queen Alexandra Stakes three Saturday’s ago…

ON THE UP

Dick Turpin

He’s been the model of consistency all season and run some fine races in defeat when competing at the highest level. After 3 seconds in 3 Group 1’s no one can argue that he didn’t deserve his win yesterday when storming home in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly. He’s reversed form with both his Newmarket 2000 Guineas conqueror Makfi and the French 2000 Guineas winner Loup De Vega in his last two races and he’ll now be gunning for his stablemate Canford Cliffs. Given the manner of his win yesterday and the way he went down fighting at Ascot in the St. James Palace I don’t think the owners will be afraid of taking him on again and given softish ground they must fancy their chances of revenge. It should make for an interesting Sussex Stakes later on in the month….

ON THE SLIDE

Kempton Racecourse

Fresh from the ’success’ of their race to music earlier in the year the Kempton racecourse came up with yet another publicity stunt designed to bring in the crowds. This time they thought it would be a good idea to pitch Olympic Silver Medalist Jamie Baulch against a horse (62 rated Peopleton Brook from the Brendan Powell yard) in a 100 metre sprint. Baulch got a 20 metre headstart and a flyer but was passed before halfway and would have struggled to win even with a 60 metre advantage. The horse never came out of a canter and won going away in the biggest mismatch since England vs Germany. Watch it here… http://www.racingpost.com/media/media_centre.sd?view=rp&media_id=18148

The mind boggles as to what Kempton will come up with next….

ROCK BOTTOM

Sam Twiston-Davies

Riding Hermoso for his dad at Perth last Thursday the young 5lb apprentice became the latest in a long line of jockeys to make an ‘error of judgement’. For some unknown reason he decided to ride the finish on the 13/2 third favourite a circuit too soon and then pull him up as if his job was done. Idiot! I’m guessing maths wasn’t his favourite subject at school but even my son has been able to count to 2 since he was able to walk and it doesn’t take a genius to work out how many times you’ve gone past the winning line. He’s not the first and he probably won’t be the last but that’s no consolation to anyone who backed him. And if you think calling him an idiot is a bit strong, have you ever seen a professional runner sprint for the finish after one circuit in an 800 metres athletics race? Thought not….

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Summer Special

We had another couple of winners over the weekend including Eclipse winner Twice Over who was highlighted in our Trends Guide as both the top rated and likeliest trends winner. Genki and King Of Reason also won from our Horses To Follow list with just Berling letting the side down for a complete sweep. I’ve only myself to blame for that one as I specifically stated in my write-up on him that I’d only be interested in him when he was running right handed. Silly me, I forgot that Haydock is a left handed track….lesson learned #3078.

It’s still not too late to sign up for the Summer Special and I’ll be replacing the Eclipse Trends Guide with this Saturday’s John Smiths Handicap Trends Guide which should be out on Thursday.

Just £27 for all 8 guides (with a £7 refund for any existing trends subscribers)..

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

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BBB

In all the excitement of Ascot and compiling the Summer Special guides I completely forgot about this months Bonus Ball Bet meaning the prizefund remained at £20. The draw last Wednesday saw number 31 as the Bonus Ball and we had 3 readers who guessed correctly.

The 3 winners have been notified and as soon as I have their addresses will receive a cheque for £6.67 each.

I’ll start afresh from today and try and get a half decent amount into the prize fund for this month.

Guesses are invited for the National Lottery Draw on Saturday 31st July. Send your number (1-49) to bonusball@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Full details and results can be found on the BBB tab on the top menu bar. All last months entries have now been erased.

Good luck,
Gavin.

I know the vast majority of readers also read Matt’s Blog over at Geegeez.com so you’ve probably heard about his latest horse ownership syndicate but just in case you haven’t you can check it out here…..

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/geegeez-racing-club/

Matt makes no money out of this venture (and by the way, neither do I for recommending it) as all money is invested in the horse, training and club days. He’s purely motivated by his love of the sport and the desire to see his colours being led into the Winners Enclosure once more. We’ve both experienced the thrill of being a winning racehorse owner and, I can tell you, there’s no feeling in racing like it.

All syndicate members will have an equal 2% share in the horse and enjoy the benefits that befits any racehorse owner.  These include; regular stable and horse updates, Owners badges for the course when the horse runs, the opportunity to meet the jockey and trainer in the parade ring and any of the legendary syndicate get togethers. I was lucky enough to go on both stable/stud/racetrack visits he organised in the last 12 months and I can tell you they were a blast. It’s a great way to meet like-minded people, take a tour around a racing stable and get up close and personal with some equine talent (they really are beautiful beasts).

Okay, so last years horses weren’t too good but there’s never been any guarantees in horse-racing and even Sheikh Mohammed and Michael Tabor have their fair share of duds (and they spend £millions on some of theirs!). You can guarantee though that you’ll have great fun if you turn up for the club days and you’ll be dreaming for 12 months that maybe the horse will end up at Cheltenham or even Royal Ascot.

All fees are a one off payment that cover everything for the entire 12 months. Absolutely nothing else to pay, not even the race day tours (unless, of course, you want to buy Matt a pint of Guiness!). I’m in and I’m really looking forward to another fun, and hopefully successful, year.

So if you want the chance to see your horse winning a race and enjoy great days out along the way, check it out here….

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/geegeez-racing-club/

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SUMMER SPECIAL

My mission to bash the bookies this Summer received another boost today when our first 2yo runner from the TTS Juvenile Guide stormed home to win at 8/1. Blaze Of Thunder was our only selection today and cements a dream start for the Summer Special following Long Wait’s 9/1 win at Perth yesterday.

An exciting weekend is in store as on Saturday we have two runners from our 15 To Follow List and, of course, the trends for the Coral Eclipse. There’s then some more Summer jump TTS horses in action on Sunday. Come on,let’s bash those bookies……..

It’s still not too late to join in as the Guides are valid until the end of October and if you sign up now you’ll get also the Full Trends for tomorrows Coral Eclipse at Sandown….

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

Yours for a one-off payment of just £27 (for all 8 guides)

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Finally, Gary’s posted his tips for two races tomorrow at Haydock. (See Gary’s Tips)

Good luck,
Gavin.