Since the beginning of the month I’ve been deep in research and up to my neck in facts and figures as I thought about ways to make this Summer the most profitable ever. It’s taken me the best part of 4 weeks but I’ve finally compiled the 8 Betting Guides that I think will help us all beat the bookies over the next couple of months. They cover both the Summer Jumps meetings and the Flat, they include trainers, tracks, trends, horses to follow, positive and negative statistics and they’re all ready for download now. I’m proud to present….

The Summer Special (or 101+ Ways To Bash The Bookies This Summer).

Guide 1: Summer Jumps Trainer Track Stats

It’s a first for TTS as I venture into the Summer Jump Season. I’ve pinpointed the particular types of races that the top National Hunt trainers have targeted over the last 5 years to bring you 30 Trainer/Track combinations for the NH meetings between July – September.  

Guide 2: Juvenile Trainer Track Stats

Another ground breaking TTS publication that, for the first time ever, concentrates solely on the 2yo runners from the top flat stables. I’ve got 37 Trainer / Track combinations that cover 23 separate tracks from around Britain. Again I’ve pinpointed the types of race that are being targeted by the major stables and which, hopefully, will prove profitable to follow. There are also 3 negative trainer stats that include a type of 2yo Richard Hannon has been sending to a Grade 1 track  over the last 5 years that has resulted in 47 consecutive losers.

Guide 3: Horses To Follow

I’ve prepared a list of 15 horses that ran at this years Royal Ascot meeting. From winners to also rans, top trainers to small stables and 2yo’s to the old timers the list has a wide variety of horses that I reckon are worth following throughout the rest of the Season. The horses are split into 4 sections (2yo’s, 3yo Fillies, 3yo Colts & Older horses)

Guide’s 4 - 6: Big Summer Festivals

4) Glorious Goodwood (July):  All the trends, stats, tables, facts and figures for the 15 main races at the Festival. Including the Sussex Stakes, Stewards Cup, Goodwood Cup, Richmond, Goodwood Mile and the Nassau Stakes.

5) York Ebor Meeting (August): I’ve researched some trainer and jockey stats for the meeting to come up with 5 positive and 5 negatives to look out for. These include the top Southern trainer who has a type of runner that produced a 50% strike rate and a 39pts level stakes profit since 2004 and the big Irish trainer who has seen 26 consecutive losers for a particular sort of runner over the same time period.

6) Doncaster St Leger Meeting (September): Again I’ve got 5 positives and negatives from the meeting which includes these gems- A big 2yo trainer who has made a 71.4pt level stakes profit by running his horses in a certain type of race and a trainer who has gone 34 races without success at the meeting including 29 losses in the type of race he usually specialises in.

Guide 7: Gary’s Sprint Double

He’s taken an ante-Post look at the 2 big Summer 6f races namely, The July Cup and The Stewards Cup. It’s the type of race he loves to get stuck into and he’s come up with a couple of big priced runners for each sprint. As with all ante-post previews there’s a lot that can happen between now and the race but if they make it to the track okay then he’s very confident of a bold show.

Guide 8: The Coral Eclipse

The last guide is the full trends publication for this weekends big Group 1 race. It has all the trends, stats, facts and figures plus the ‘likeliest trends winner’ selection and the Nag ratings. The trends for the race are very strong and our final pick is the only horse who satisfies them all.

And there you have it. My 101+ Ways to Bash the Bookie this Summer.

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Okay the cost. It’s taken me a lot of man hours to put it all together but I want as many readers as possible to be able to access the information so I’m setting the price at just £27.

I think it’s a more than fair price given the number of guides available and that I normally charge that much for one TTS Manual.

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/member/signup.php

I’m also hoping that any Festival Trends subscribers will see that the price offers tremendous value quite apart from the Trends Guides included in the package. However, if anyone objects to paying twice for these particular guides I’m quite happy to refund any Festival Trends subscribers £7 off the package price. Just drop me an email.

Finally, if you’re not quite sure about it all or don’t want to pay out any money then I’ve put together a sample of the guides included in this offer. You can have a FREE look by clicking the link below…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=1653&i=l15

Best of luck,
Gavin.

I’m sorry for the slight gap between now and the last post but I’ve been busy putting together a package to help us all bash the bookies this Summer. I’m really excited about this one and I’ll reveal everything tomorrow…

In the meantime, for anyone looking for something to have a dabble on Gary has started up his system horses again and is extremely keen on a 16/1 shot running later tonight. Simply click the tab ‘Gary’s System Horses’ on the left hand menu.

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The last week….

After doing it in at Royal Ascot this year you may be glad to hear that I got most of my losses back last weekend thanks to the Trends having one of the best Guides we’ve had for along time. We had Overturn at 14/1 as the top rated runner in the Northumberland Plate and although I didn’t have a big bet on him it did give me some cash to have a nice punt on Cape Blanco in the Irish Derby. That one duly obliged for both me and our FT Guide and followed up Chinese White in the other Group 1 race at the Curragh.
7/2, 4/1 and 14/1 from 4 races was a very nice return on investment.

Actually thinking about it, you probably didn’t want to hear that because I seem to get a more positive response to my Blog Posts when I’m relaying tales of woe and heavy punting losses rather than those of winning runs and gambles landed. It may make for better reading for you lot but I’ve got a family to feed and a dream of making Vegas for my birthday to fulfil. You bunch of sadistic so and so’s. 

It looks like Twice Over in the Eclipse will be the deciding factor on me making that particular trip unless anyone wants to sponsor me to enter the World Series of Poker?…… Thought not.

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Finally, why the England goal didn’t count…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. I’ve finally decided to embrace the 21st century and give Facebook a go. Until now, I’ve not done much with my homepage and hardly ever visited the site but apparently I’m missing out on soooo much. If you want to come and find me then it’s Gavin Priestley living in Cardiff.

Still shellshocked from Black Thursday I decided a change in tactics was required to try and bring about a change of luck. Luckily it was also the day I had very few strong fancies and as I wrote in my trends preview for the day it was a bad day too for the stats.

So the plan was to drop Dylan off at school and then sit in the local Ladbrokes (I also decided to try and change my usual Betfred shop to see if that helped any), pick out my horses and place a few multiple bets before the racing started.

First up was a £10 patent on Bullet Train, who I was giving one last chance to, Music Show, who I was giving one last chance to, and Corsica who I was giving a first chance to as I’d never backed him before.

That’s now it for Bullet Train and Music Show. You’ve had all the money you’re getting out of me. And as for Corsica, I won’t be backing him again anytime soon. That could possibly be the worst £70 I’ve spent since I took Dylan and a couple of his friends to see Bolt in 3D at the local cineplex. Yes you read that correctly. £70 for 2 adults and 4 kids to watch an animated kids movie. Tickets, special 3D glasses, hotdogs, drinks, popcorn and sweets. When I were lad, used to go to the pictures with …..Woa! I’m beginning to sound like my dad.

Back to the racing. I also did a £2.50 ew Lucky 15 and a £5 ew accumulator on Radharcnafarraige. 4th of course and after I spent 5 minutes trying to spell it correctly. When I write out my betting slip I always try to make it as neat as possible and get the spelling correct just in case I ever win big and the Racing Post decide to print a copy of my betting slip. I don’t want anyone thinking I’m an illiterate moron.

Kingdom Of Fife was the second horse in my bet and got me my only return of the day. He ran well but the winner, Rainbow Peak, looks a Group horse in the making and giving weight away to him did for Stoute’s horse.  Moose Moran at 20/1 was next and he ran much better than his odds suggested he would as he only gave way well inside the last furlong. A drop back in class should see him regain winning ways.

The final horse in my (un)Lucky 15 was Kiwi Bay in the fiendishly hard Buckingham Palace Handicap. He ran terribly and his Racing Post comment echoed my own personal Ascot nightmare. ‘Under pressure from half way, weakened last few days, well behind final races’

I’d also had another go at the Placepot which went down on the first race because I put a line through the wrong box when I had meant to include Memory. As it turned out it didn’t matter as it would have gone down on the next race anyway but at the time I was cursing!

A £200 loss on the day could have been seen as a result compared to the previous day but just one placed horse from 7 runners was definitely not good. The Ladbrokes in Penarth has now been designated a no luck zone.

My only consolation is that the England players were probably feeling worse than I was and at least I didn’t get booed by the missus as I trudged back home from the pub.

Which just left the Saturday of Royal Ascot to try and get my money back. For the third day running I tried a different approach and decided that I’d put all my bets on online. As much as I like visiting the local betting shop it hadn’t brought me any luck over the last few days and being a superstitious gambler a change is as good as a rest…

First up was £40 on King Torus which I had at 5.4 on Betfair. It finished 4th so Betfair obviously wasn’t the answer and it was time to try Betfred online instead. As far as I was concerned Harbinger was an absolute certainty for the Hardwicke but as my confidence was rock bottom and he was trading at around 4/5 it would have taken a pretty hefty punt on him to get my money back so I did what every self respecting moron does in a situation like this….find an each way alternative. Doh! £20 ew on Jukebox Jury was probably the worst bet I had all week and that’s saying something given all the other rubbish I’d previously punted.

Time to change tack again and try WilliamHill. A glimmer of hope was offered as I had £40 Starspangledbanner and £20 ew High Standing. Three races gone and I was actually in front for the day. With a big fancy in the Wokingham to come I was now thinking I could actually rescue the meeting and retreive my Ascot losses.

Oh how foolish I am.

Independently both my brother and I had come up with the same horse in the Wokingham, Edge Closer. Drawn in stall 1 and from the Richard Hannon yard there was lots to like about him and my £80ew with WilliamHill meant if it lost I was about even for the day.

I was now even for the day.

A measure of just how bad my luck now was is the run of Imposing in the next. I’d managed to bag 4/1 about this Stoute improver and judging by the betting there was a lot of stable confidence behind him. If they ran that race a 100 times again he’d probably win about 99 times but Saturday wasn’t one of them and I was now resigned to finishing the meeting ‘in the hole’.

A defeatist £30 on Swingkeel in the last was the final nail in the coffin. Ascot was over and I was glad of it. Roll on Glorious Goodwood……

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It seems that Dylan has inherited his father’s athletic grace (!) as he swept the board at his sports day yesterday with an impressive 4 wins from 4 races. Highlights included a pillar to post win in the bat and beanbag event, an easy win in the through-the-hoops race, a last to first finish in the obstacle course (after struggling early on with the beanbag balancing on the head section) and an impressive turn of foot in the last 20 yards to pull away and win the feature Sprint Race. Due to time restrictions the fathers race was cancelled which, as well as sparing my blushes, also kept the Priestley-Bell household 100% record intact.

Olympics 2024 here we come…..

Dylan has also been writing his score predictions out for every World Cup game which have seen some interesting guesses along the way (Spain 0 Switzerland 3, Netherlands 0 Japan 4). He’s saving up for the latest Super Mario Wii game so I promised him £1 for every one he got correct but he hasn’t had much luck so far which is just as well because after last week I’ve got to look after the £1’s.

But last night while he was safely tucked up in bed he got both scores right (Nigeria 2 Korea Republic 2 & Greece 0 Argentina 2). Darn another £2 loss! For tonights games he’s gone with Slovenia 1 England 2 and USA 3 Algeria 3 and I can only assume his Welsh mother had absolutely no input during those particular forecasts….

Good luck England,
Gavin.

After a decent start to the most difficult meeting of the year I was feeling confident and couldn’t wait for Ladies Day. I like nothing better than watching some camp bloke with a microphone mince around the racecourse poking fun at some poor wannabe WAG with orange skin and a short skirt.

Well actually I like quite a lot of things better than that. Going to the dentist. Eating brussel sprouts. Getting knocked out of poker tournaments. My placepot going down on the first race because I put the line in the wrong box. Being woken up at 5am by a squawking seagull perched right outside my bedroom window. A whole orchestra of Vuvuzela blowers…..You get the idea.

It’s a long list but doesn’t include Willie Carson or Claire Balding. The most annoying double act since Little and Large……. or Parrott and Wiltshire.

My day didn’t start off too well when the Queen decided against wearing Apricot for the day and opted instead for a Green hat. I was a tenner down and the racing hadn’t even started.

When it eventually did, Tom Eaves decided to run against the nearside rail for the entire race even though all evidence up until then had shown a definite advantage to the far side. Excel Bolt and my £50 were beaten just under 2 lengths which wasn’t the start I had anticipated but at least it gave me an excuse to abuse another jockey. It couldn’t have been a worse result for me as I had highlighted the 16/1 winner after his run at Epsom last time out when he was very, very unlucky. Approve? No I *^#%$% don’t!

I think this was probably the turning point of the meeting for me as not backing that first winner was playing heavily on my mind. 16/1 winners are few and far between and not backing one that you should is extremely annoying. I consoled myself with a £50 bet on Principal Role and had a £20ew Double on that one and Manifest in the Gold Cup. In the post where I mentioned Approve I also urged John Gosden not to run Getrude Bell in the Ribblesdale as she doesn’t stay 12f. Like many before him, he didn’t listen to me and ultimately paid the price. I’d bet money (if I had any left) that her next run is over 10f or less. While he’s at it Mr Gosden can bring Clairvoyance back in trip too, run them on the same day and I can have a nice double up. Back to the race, which saw Principal Role outclassed by the winner and outstayed by the placed horses. The only thing I got right all day was that Gertrude Bell doesn’t stay….

My Placepot was also down and out.

The Gold Cup. With no Yeats this year the stayers crown was up for grabs and there were plenty of horses ready to take up the challenge. After his York romp I was very keen on Manifest and had a £120 at 9/2 backed it up with £20ew on Akmal at 20/1 who had won the other good trial for this race, the Henry II stakes at Sandown. In a very fast run race it was the novice hurdler Rite Of Passage who prevailed to win the Cup and the £141k first prize. Can somebody tell me why connections of the top hurdlers don’t run their horses in these Cup races? If I owned Dunguib or Big Bucks I’d be shelving any plans for a winter campaign and instead I’d be mopping up the Gold Cup, Goodwood Cup and the Prix du Cadran. However, after the poor runs of both Manifest and Akmal, if I were the connections I’d be eyeing up the novice hurdles at Cheltenham next March…..

When things are going poorly the last thing you want to see is a race like the Britannia Handicap. 27 three year olds running over a straight mile! Last year I was very unlucky in the race when Secret Society got caught on the line and things didn’t improve this year when my big each way fancy King Of Reason (£80ew) finished where all good each way bets finish, 5th. I’d said in my race preview that if he had been drawn high he would have been my bet of the meeting but I don’t think the draw beat him, he just needed a little further. Stick him in your notebooks and back him next time out……

My dad had been banging on for some time that he wanted to go and visit Ffos Las racecourse so we’d arranged a trip on their one year anniversary to see what Wales’s newest track was all about. First race was 5.50 and according to the AA Route planner it was 1 hour 15 mins from Penarth to the course so all being well we’d be there just in time to catch Tony McCoy winning the first race. I’d also planned it just right that I’d be able to take a little detour and catch the 5.00 race in the Ladbrokes just off Junction 37 on the M4. Some people know where all the pubs are, I always know where you can find a betting shop (it’s behind the Cornelly Arms for those who need to know both!)

Just when you think things can’t get any worse, guess what? The two horses you fancy finish 2nd and 3rd beaten a shorthead and a neck. Not only that but the trainer of the winner is having his first success at Royal Ascot since 1997! Crikey, and I thought I was having a bad run. £60 Quadrille, £40ew Wigmore Hall and a £5rfc. It’s times like these that really make you question why you bother. It might have been the most exciting race of the week but it was also the most soul destroying one for me. How I didn’t get paid here I will never know, and yes I’m talking through my pocket, but I’m sure there were grounds to kick that winner out. I was so distraught I even thought about not having a bet in the last or having a punt at Ffos Las….

Did I really just write that? LOL. In for a penny in for £716. I decided that the best course of action was to go long and bet myself out of the hole I was in. It’s not a very good tactic and I wouldn’t advise anyone to try it. In fact it goes against everything the disciplined punter should be doing and should come with a Government Health Warning. Please kids, do not try this at home. I left £120 at 9/2 Berling, £25ew Bright Horizon with a £5cfc including London Stripe. I might just as well have stuck £200 on Number 32 in the Teatime 49’s Draw. Having watched the replay when I got home Eddie Ahern has now been added to my list of jockeys not getting a Christmas card this year.

And so it was on to Ffos Las. We made good time and turned off at Junction 48 at 5.30pm leaving me 20 minutes to do the final 8 miles or so that the AA route planner had stated there were to the track. Easy peasy. Now if anyone has actually been racing there then they’re probably right now curled up in a ball laughing hysterically at my ignorance. It is fact 19 miles from the turn-off and is through village after village with no dual carriageway and a 30mph limit for most of the way. I got stuck behind a farmer in a range rover for miles and to say I was steaming was the understatement of the day. Those 19 miles felt like 99 and we eventually made the track at 6.10. If someone gave you £30m to build a racecourse I would suggest that this is the last place in Britain that you would actually set about doing it (with the possible exception of Lands End!) Yes the course is scenic, yes the track has great viewing but crikey, it’s stuck in the middle of nowhere and is a nightmare to get too.

McCoy had won the first but at 2/5 it didn’t matter. The £19 entry though did matter. That’s a lot of money for such a small track but it was Ladies night and the place was packed. Actually, it was all a bit surreal. You don’t expect to go evening racing in the middle of the Welsh countryside and for 90% of the crowd to be dressed up in dresses, hats and suits. I looked a little out of place in my jeans and Superdry T-Shirt.

I found the betting shop to find my bets in the 5.30 had all lost but at least 32 hadn’t been drawn in the 49’s. Every cloud hey? And then it struck me. I now knew my luck was well and truly out. If I thought my day had reached rock bottom then I was sorely mistaken. Arrrgh! Derek Thompson was the course commentator for the night and his duties for the evening included judging the best dressed lady, interviewing the crowd, letching, acting the fool and generally getting under my skin. I couldn’t even drown my sorrows at the bar because I was driving.

From the five races that evening I managed to back one faller and 4 seconds and the only course of action left open to me was to go home and kick the cat. Woe is me, when will my bad luck end? I don’t even have a cat…….

To finish off Beethoven’s quote from yesterday. He actually said ‘I shall seize Fate by the throat; it shall certainly not bend and crush me completely.’ Sounds like he’d been having a bad run on the horses too. I obviously don’t have the resolve that Beethoven possessed as I was indeed bent and crushed and glad the day was over. Roll on Friday….

I’ve got to dash now as it’s Dylan’s sports day today but I’ll finish off my punting horror story tomorrow.

Gavin.

It was a game of two halves. It went from the sublime to the ridiculous. In just 5 days I went from winner to loser and in less than a week I experienced the complete range of emotions from euphoria to frustration to anger and finally, total despair. Welcome to my Royal Ascot punting diaries which really was like a remake of The Good, The Bad and The Ugly.

Part I. The Good…..

Previous to Royal Ascot I hadn’t been punting too much since Epsom finished and I wasn’t sure what sort of shape my luck was in. I hadn’t even been playing that much poker as I had been up to my neck in statistical research but I was feeling pretty confident and was itching for the meeting to start. However by the time Saturday had arrived I couldn’t wait for the meeting to finish and my only consolation was the knowledge that at least they haven’t extended the meeting to include the Sunday.

The meeting started as it finished, with disappointment. Richard Hughes gave Goldikova too much of a headstart at the furlong pole and couldn’t close her down in those last 220 yards. Another 20 yards might have made all the difference but until the Government’s National Measurement Office decree that a furlong has been increased by 10% I won’t be getting paid out on my £100 bet. I also had £20ew on Zacinto in the same race which was looking okay with 1/2 furlong to go but, as I was to find out many more times over the next few days, a lot can happen in a short space of time. My win bet was 2nd and my each way bet was 4th. Normal service had been resumed….

In the next my hopes were pinned firmly on an old favourite of mine Equiano. After 18 months in the wilderness he had returned to top form this season and in what looked a pretty sub-standard Kings Stand he looked value at 10/1. I had £4oew at the price and, in what turned out to be the highlight of the meeting for me, he led from start to finish. Apparently he had undergone a wind operation during the winter which seems to have sorted out his previous inability to win. I’ve booked myself in for the same operation next week….

It was then time to pick up Dylan from school and with timing critical to make sure I was back for the St James Palce stakes I had to do a bit of bribery to persuade him that watching the race was going to be far more fun than a kick about in the park with his mates. It cost be a £1ew on Keiren Fallon’s horse but, as it turned out, that was money well spent.

So, onto the third Group 1 race of the day and I was confident that judged on his Irish Guineas romp Canford Cliffs could reverse Newmarket placings with the front two that day. I had £100 at 5/2 and another £40 at 11/4. I’d also had a tenner each way at 100/1 the night before on Beethoven as I couldn’t believe a Group 1 winner could be such a big price. Despite running well on his seasonal debut that one didn’t make the frame but the result was still music to my ears as Jim McGrath called Canford Cliffs the winner. To quote the German born composer, ‘I shall seize fate by the throat’. Things were looking very good at this stage…

In the Coventry I had made Zoffany my bet of the day and buoyed by my recent successes got a bit carried away and followed up my £100 at 5/1 in the morning with another £50 on the O’Brien runner. Richard Hughes decided to have another go at giving a horse 3 lengths headstart at the furlong pole but amazingly he managed to succeed this time and got Strong Suit up in the final stride. Zoffany became just another O’Brien horse to run badly at the start of the meeting. As his luck improved throughout the week mine went the opposite way…..

My placepot perm was still going nicely though.

A 20 runner handicap over 2 1/2 miles. Just the type of race you need when you’re looking to bounce back from a poor result. From the 20 runners I had managed to get it down to a shortlist of 19 as novice chaser Junior couldn’t win. I thought about backing the other 19 but settled on three in the end. Rangefinder (£10 ew at 33/1), Callisto Moon (£10ew at 25/1) and my main bet £25ew on Som Tala. I really liked the look of Mick Channon’s runner as he had run very well in the race previously, was lower in the ratings than he was for last years Northumberland Plate win, was drawn well for a front runner and tactical genius Richard Hughes was on board. I couldn’t have read the race worse if I tried! Junior won, Callisto Moon finished last and the other two finished in between. To rub salt in the wound the judge decided to give a dead heat for fourth place which meant that although my placepot was still going, thanks to one of the deadheaters, he had to share it with the favourite and this massively affected the dividend. Som Tala has done all of his winning and run all of his best races when allowed to run from the front. Why oh why oh why didn’t Hughsie bounce this one out and lead all the way? I seem to remember asking the same question many times last season before Mick Channon finally listened and instructed the jockey to lead in the Northumberland Plate. He’s declared for the race again this year but looks unlikely to get in and I may have to wait until Glorious Goodwood to try and get my money back.

The final race of the day and I was interested in only two horses, Excello and Stone Of Folca. I had £20ew on each and a £5 rfc. Tea was put on hold for 10 minutes while I watched the 5.30pm and 50 yards from the line it looked like the perfect result and a trip to the Tropical Tandori was on the cards. Not for the first time, or the last, those final few yards of the Ascot turf proved my downfall and incredibly I ended up with 3rd and 4th. I didn’t see the in-running betting on Betfair for the race but I’d imagine that there must have been carnage for a few layers/bettors as Paul Hannaghan gained the advantage close home. I just about broke even on the race and my tea was slightly ‘overcooked’ but at least my Placepot had come up. My £40 perm returned £200 leaving me to wonder what might have been if the judge had called the correct result for 4th place in the previous race. ‘Wish he’d gone to Specsavers’

I was nicely in front for day 1 and eagerly awaited day 2 as my bet of the meeting was due to run in the first….

Shakespearean really caught my eye at Epsom as he carried the penalty well that day to put in a fine front running performance. I went against the trends here because penalty carriers don’t have a great record in the Jersey Stakes but they have restructured the penalty scale and 3lb didn’t look unsurmountable to me. Not for the first, or last, time at Ascot I got it completely wrong and Frankie never got into a winning position. Why oh why oh why didn’t he try to lead all the way? Jockeys, they’re a law unto themselves. Anyway the upshot of it all was that I was £300 down after the first race…..

Strawberrydaiquiri is a favourite of mine and the missus. She drinks nothing else when we’re in Vegas and we’ve backed the horse every time she’s run. Last week was no exception and in what is a very big bet for her she matched my £40 win although, unlike me, she didn’t back Saphresa for £40 as well. What an incredibly exciting race it was and we cheered and shouted louder than a stadium full of vuvuzela blowers. It was her biggest ever win on the horses and she was so overcome with delirium offered to pick Dylan up from school and treat us to dinner in the Harvester. Good times indeed as I’m quite partial to their chicken and ribs combo….

Another favourite of mine is Twice Over and as a Group 1 winner he looked nailed on for the frame in the Prince Of Wales. I managed to steal £100ew at 6/1 and under a less than inspiring ride from Tom Queally bagged the place part. I’m sure if he could ride the race again he’d sit a bit closer to the pace and would have ovrhauled the winner but at least for the second day running my Placepot was still going well….

The Hunt Cup has never been a great race for me but I was quite confident of a good run from Mull of Killough this year. It seems I wasn’t alone as he was gambled on all the way down from 20/1 to an SP of 10/1 but it seems the weight of money riding on him was all too much and he laboured home a well beaten 26th of 29 runners. Incidentally the last 6 home all raced down the centre which obviously wasn’t the place to be. While Mull of Killough was being eased out the back, Frankie was powering home Invisible Man up front to run out a 1/2 length winner. My brother had convinced me the previous week to back him ante-post and I’d had £20ew at 20/1. Some tipster he is. Tells me to take 20/1 and the thing wins at 28/1. That’s the last time I listen to him…..

In the Queen Mary I wasn’t sure of anything but the trends had thrown up a big outsider so I decided to go with her. I had £10 ew Dress Up at 50/1 and £10ew Sarenas Pride also at 50/1. Both ran well but were no match for the front three and finished out of the frame. With all these favourites going in I was sure glad that for the first time in over 20 years I wasn’t working in the bookies. It’s much more fun losing your money on this side of the counter….

The final race and despite the worst possible start it hadn’t been too bad a day. My placepot was still going and there were only 17 fillies running in a handicap to spoil the bet. There were many I could have given a chance to but I settled on just three in the end. My personal choice was Clairvoyance and I had £40ew at 16/1 on her. That was no good and a return to 7f looks the best option for her. Safina was a strong trends horse but Sir Michael Stoute continued his good record of getting his horse placed in this race without winning when she finished 3rd. The other one I backed was Timepiece but this was purely a recovery mission as I had lost quite a bit of money on her in the Oaks. I didn’t have anywhere near the amount I had on her in the Oaks and I didn’t even win enough to cover that Oaks bet but the £30 at 8/1 was very welcome indeed and ensured I won for the second day running.

The placepot paid a miserly £129 which meant I won about £3 on my £50 perm. Still a wins a win and over the next couple of days I’d have been happy to take a £3 profit on any of my bets….

I don’t remember breaking a mirror, walking under a ladder or tripping over a black cat on the Wednesday night but something definitely happened to me in the short space of time between Timepiece winning and the start of Thursday’s racing as my luck completely deserted me. Thursday was probably the worst days punting I’ve experienced this year.

I’ll be back tomorrow to recall the full horrors of Black Thursday…

Gavin.

Wow, what a breathtaking first day with plenty of thrills and excitement. I’ll let you know how I got on in the punting field at the end of the week but after Day 1 it’s a slight ‘advantage Gavin.’

So a quick recap of yesterday’s events…..

Firstly we had the jockey error that saw Richard Hughes give a 3 length headstart to a dual Breeders Cup winner and then try and close the gap down in less than a furlong. That he nearly suceeded shows just how good a miler Paco Boy now is. Take nothing away from the winner though, she’s very, very good, but I reckon Paco’s connections will be itching for a re-match.

We then beat the Aussie’s (which is always nice) when Equiano regained the Kings Stand and ended the recent domination of overseas winners. This was a pretty clear pick for our trends guide and the only slight dampener on the race for me  was that he returned 9/2. Having backed him at 10’s in the morning and seeing 8/1 freely available 10 minutes before the off it was an incredibly poor returned SP. I hope anyone who backed him got on at the early odds.

And then the highlight of the day for me (and another trends winner) when Canford Cliffs showed he’s back to his best and is the top 3yo miler in Europe. My brother had £2oew at 66/1 on Hearts Of Fire and counts himself unlucky but although he ran a fine race I still don’t think he would have beaten Canford with a troublefree passage. I’m really looking forward to seeing the winner race against his stable companion Paco Boy in the Sussex Stakes and over a turning mile it will be some contest. Glorious Goodwood indeed.

Richard Hughes got it right in the Coventry with a finely timed ride to get up close home on Richard Hannon’s top juvenile Strong Suit. Unsurprisingly, he’s now favourite for next years 2000 Guineas but a word of caution…12 of the last 13 winners of the Coventry all got turned over next time out. Even the 2007 winner, and future dual 2000 Guineas winner, Henrythenavigator couldn’t overturn that stat as he finished 2nd in the Phoenix Stakes on his following run. The bad run for The Coventry Stakes continued last year when the highly impressive winner, Canford Cliffs, got beaten as a 4/9 favourite on his next start in France.

Onto the 20 runner handicap that saw David Pipe pull off a bit of a coup with the ex-Alan King novice chaser, Junior. He won it well but didn’t appeal to me beforehand or even as he crossed the line. I was more interested in the battle for the places as I needed Dayia for my placepot. On the BBC slow mo replay I was convinced he was a clear 4th and was gob-smacked that it was given as a dead-heat. With the other horse dead-heating being the Fallon ridden favourite it made a big difference to the Placepot dividend as there were now 5 horses qualifying including the favourite. I’d like to see that print!

And finally the Windsor Castle which 50 yards from the line was a dream result. Having made Stone Of Folca and Excello joint selections in the trends guide we were happy to see them battling it out in 1st and 2nd place. How quickly things can change though as just 50 yards later we ended up with 3rd and 4th. It was nearly as annoying as Di Steffano in last years race….

 DAY 2

How my day goes will probably be decided in the first as I am on Shakespearean big time. I was really impressed with his performance at Epsom last time out and I’m looking for Frankie to bounce this one out and make all the running. I’ve gone against the trends here as penalty winners don’t win this race as a rule but this is a Group 2 horse and he should be able to defy the penalty. Come on Frankie!

Other horses that will be carrying my money are Mull Of Killough in the Hunt Cup (Roberts comments have been noted) with a saver on Dandy Boy, Twice Over in the Prince of Wales and Clairvoyance in the last although there is a trends runner in that race who looks very good.

I just hope I’ve got enough money left for tomorrow because I’ve got a big fancy in the Britannia and he is going to be a big price.

If you want to leave a comment telling everyone what you fancy today, please do…..

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Gary

His re-issued system horses have just started to splutter back to life over the last couple of days after a pretty poor run. On Monday he had a nice 20/1 winner and then yesterday scored another 3pt winner at 11/2. This has given the system a stay of execution and we’ll continue with it for a little longer.

As for his Outsider Selections for Ascot, well they went pretty well yesterday. He didn’t manage to get a winner but he had a horse placed at big odds in all of the first 5 races and a non runner in the 6th.

Race 1: Paco Boy 2nd at 11/4
Race 2: Borderlescott 3rd at 16/1
Race 3: Dick Turpin 2nd (advised at 9/1) and Hearts Of Fire 3rd (advised at 50/1)
Race 4: Roayh 3rd at 22/1
Race 5: Aaim To Prosper 3rd at 16/1
Race 6: Non Runner

Perming his selections in an each way accumulator would have returned over £3000 for a £1ew unit stake.
A 10pew Lucky 63 would have got £2100 back!……Not bad at all.

If you want to see what he’s backing for the next few days then you can subscribe to his service at http://www.horseraceoutsiders.co.uk/

Good luck for today,
Gavin.

P.S. Come on Shakespearean

P.P.S. Oh and Mull Of Killough, Twice Over and Clairvoyance!

My 5 best bets for the week…

Shakespearean (Jersey Stakes)

I really liked the way this one kept on running at Epsom and despite carrying a weight penalty that day he never looked like getting caught. I’m glad connections decided against running him in the St James Palace and are instead heading for the Jersey Stakes as a straight 7f down Ascot will be right up his street. If he runs in the opener on the Wednesday he will be my biggest bet of the week.

Canford Cliffs (St James Palace)

Back to the scene of his breathtaking 2yo win in the Coventry and on the back of his best performance last time out in the Irish Guineas Canford Cliffs has to be the one to beat here. Makfi will be out to show his 2000 Guineas win was no fluke but I think Canford Cliffs has improved enough to reverse Newmarket placings. Given Aiden O’Briens record in the race you have to fear Steinbeck now that he’s had a run but he does have quite a few lengths to find with Canford Cliffs and I’m happy to side with Richard Hannon’s runner.

Music Show (Coronation Stakes)

Beaten by the draw at Newmarket she ran a fine race in the Irish Guineas and with no Special Duty or Bethrah in the field this week it’s time for Music Show to gain her moment in the spotlight. The ground, the course and the distance are all perfect for this filly and there can be no excuses if she gets beat. If there are a minimum of 8 runners and I can get 5/1 or better (oh, and if I’ve got any money left by then) I’ll be having a big each way bet on her.

Manifest (Gold Cup)

With no Yeats to worry about this year the staying division will be looking for its latest star. Step forward Manifest. I’ve been following this one since before he ran as the Newmarket work watchers had been shouting his name long before he made his way onto the racecourse. It seems another year has made all the difference to him and the way he won the Yorkshire Cup last time out marked him out as a very promising Cup horse. Henry Cecil would love to win this race again and I think he has every chance with the 4yo Manifest given the manner of his latest victory.

Genki (Wokingham)

Something must have gone terribly wrong in the Wokingham last year as he trailed in last of 26 but he bounced back to win the Stewards Cup at Glorious Goodwood the following month before ending last season running 3rd in a Listed race at the Curragh. He’s had just the one run so far this season where he finished 4th of 23 on 1000 Guineas day. Drawn the ‘wrong’ side and carrying 9-09 he ran an absolute cracker and a reproduction of that run will put him in the mix for this notoriously tricky handicap. I’ll be hoping for 10’s or better to have a good each way bet on him.

and 3 outsiders….

Zacinto (Queen Anne)

Something has obviously gone wrong in his last two runs as he has failed to beat a single horse in either race but surely Sir Michael Stoute wouldn’t be running him in a Group 1 race if he hadn’t ironed out the problems, would he? Stoutey has a fine record in this race with 3 wins and 3 places from his last 10 runners and with all the attention focusing on the front three in the betting we can get an amazing 20/1 on his runner. Zacinto is the only horse outside of the top 3 that I can see having a chance of springing a surprise.

Mull of Killough (Royal Hunt Cup)

I really like this one and the 20/1 is a great price. He has form in big field handicaps and he’s running well this year so I just need a good draw (not in the middle) to have myself a big bet. There doesn’t seem to be any young horses with Group race aspirations lurking in the field this year and I think we could see the type of winner revert to being a good honest handicapper. Mull of Killough is certainly that and I’m looking forward to seeing him run on Wednesday.

Clairvoyance (Sandringham Handicap)

This one is likely to be a big price if she contests this fillies handicap on the Wednesday. There are some real top class fillies set to line-up in the race, not least of which are Oaks 3rd favourite Timepiece and Irish 1000 Guineas also ran Lolly For Dolly, but it does mean my fancy will have a lovely racing weight of around 8-02. She ran a fine race over course and distance at the beginning of May when weakening only in the last 100 yards to finish a creditable 5th to Alsace Lorraine (she’ll be contesting the Group 2 Windsor Stakes this week ). She was also entered in a Class 2 handicap at Thirsk on the Tuesday but connections have taken her out of that race to run here.

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Trends

Our guide for the first day is now available for download and on what looks a top class but very tough day’s racing I think we have some nice selections. We’ll be covering all 30 races over the 5 days of the meeting and it’s just £34.95. Or there is an option to buy each day individually for £9.95 so you can buy Tuesday’s guide and see how we get on……

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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Gary’s Tips

There’s also Gary’s Guide for Royal Ascot where he’ll be casting his expert eye over the runners in all 30 races. His first day choices will be ready from lunchtime today and it’s just £19.95 for all 5 days…..

http://www.horseraceoutsiders.co.uk/

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You can read all about how I get on punting this week in my blog next Monday.

Good luck,
Gavin.

The final race, more specifically 3 horses, I’m going to look at from next week is the Kings Stand Stakes. It’s a 5f Group 1 Sprint that is run on the Tuesday and has been dominated by Australian trained runners in the last 7 years.

Since 2003 the runners from down under have finished  11471340281 with wins for Choisir (2003), Takeover Target (2006), Miss Andretti (2007) and Scenic Blast (2009).

What’s particularly interesting about the 4 winners is that they all had a very similar campaign prior to making the long trip to race at Ascot.

All 4 of them ran, and won, in the Grade 1 Lightning Stakes at Flemington Park over 5f.
All 4 of them ran, and 3 won (exception Choisir was 6th), in the Grade 1 Newmarket Handicap at Flemington Park over 6f.

3 of the 4 ran in the Oakleigh Plate at Caulfield over 6f between these two races where they finished 3rd, 3rd and 5th (Miss Andretti didn’t run in this race)

Given the Aussies dominance in the Kings Stand it’s not surprising to see their runners fancied in the market (including the favourite) but what chance have they got of making it 5 from the last 8?

It’s easy to see why the current favourite is Nicconi as he too won the Lightning Stakes back in January and his record over 5f reads 1111
He got beat in the 6f Newmarket Handicap when finishing 14th but that has been no barrier to success here and back over the 5f of the Kings Stand he looks to have a good a chance as any of the previous Aussie runners.

The other Australian runner declared for the race is Gold Trail who stopped over in Singapore on his way to Ascot to take in their big Group 1 sprint. He finished 4th that day, which I’m sure paid all their travelling expenses, but with most of his running being done over 6f I reckon connections will be looking at Saturday’s Golden Jubilee as their main target next week.

I said their were 3 horses I’d be looking at and the third runner is very interesting in that he was originally Australian trained but now lives at Ballydoyle under the watchful eye of Aiden O’Brien. Starspangledbanner also ran in the Lightning Stakes where he finished 4th behind Nicconi but gained his revenge on that one in the Newmarket Handicap (over 6f) when finishing  11 places in front of him. Since joining O’Brien he’s had the one run where he finished 5th to Prime Defender at York again over 6f. He only weakened in the last 100 yards that day and I reckon that run will have put him spot on for Ascot.

Jockey Stats for Royal Ascot

 2009 ROYAL ASCOT TOP JOCKEY. FINAL TABLE

JOCKEY            WINS 2NDS 3RDS 4THS RIDES LSP

J. MURTAGH - 4 —- 1 —- 0 —- 0 —- 12   +8.33
R. HUGHES  - 4 —- 0 —- 3 —- 2 —- 20   +17.58
R. MOORE    - 3 —- 8 —- 1 —- 4 —- 29    -4.00
R. HILLS        - 3 —- 0 —- 1 —- 1 —- 17   +24.00
J. SPENCER - 2 —- 1 —- 2 —- 0 —- 10   +6.50
J. FANNING   - 2 —- 1 —- 0 —- 0 —- 9   +14.00
E. AHERN     - 2 —- 0 —- 1 —- 0 —- 12   +5.00
L. DETTORI   - 1 —- 3 —- 3 —- 2 —- 25   -19.00
T. QUEALLY - 1 —- 1 —- 1 —- 2 —- 11   +10.00

JOHNNY MURTAGH 11 year record:

157 rides for 31 winners (19.7% strike rate) LSP +£170.15
Last 2 years winners: 6 – 4

His incredible level stakes profit over the last 11 years was built mainly before he took the job as Ballydoyle stable jockey.

FRANKIE DETTORI 11 year record:

231 rides for 24 winners (10.4% strike rate) LSL -£60.97
Last 2 years winners: 1 – 1

He’s only managed the solitary winner for each of the last 4 Royal Ascot meetings.

RICHARD HUGHES 11 year record:

213 rides for 17 winners (7.4% strike rate) LSL -£20.42
Last 2 years winners: 2 – 4

He did manage a four timer at the meeting in 2002

RYAN MOORE 11 year record:

108 rides for 6 winners (5.6% strike rate) LSL -£65.00
Last years winners: 3

He rode in 29 of the 30 races last year and finished in the top 4 on 16 occasions.

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YORK TODAY

Today’s racing at York looks competitive and I’ll be having  just a couple of bets…..

Elliptical 2.40 York
The Only Boss 3.15 York

I’ll be having £2ew on each and a £1ew double for the BBB prizefund.

There’s still plenty of time to send in your number (1-49). Guesses to bonusball@nag-nag-nag.co.uk
Current prizepool £20.00

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Gary’s System Horses

Due to popular demand Gary has re-started listing his System Horses.

Personally I think the system has had it’s day but we’ll give it another week or so to see if it’s just a minor blip it’s been going through or whether it just started off on a lucky streak. If results don’t improve we’ll bin it completely.

His own personal selections are still running well though and are still showing a massive profit since he started his tipping page. He’s got a couple for today to try and boost his Royal Ascot punting fund.

For Royal Ascot he’s producing a Tipping Guide for all 30 races and you can order your copy from his new website….. http://www.horseraceoutsiders.co.uk/

Good luck,
Gavin.

Today I’ll be continuing my preview of the feature races for next weeks Royal Ascot meeting with a look at the top 3yo milers.

The St. James Palace Stakes is a race that traditionally brings together the runners that have competed in the Newmarket, Irish and French Guineas. This years race is no exception with winners and placed horses from all three races set to do battle. The winner next Tuesday looks set for the bragging rights as the seasons top 3yo miler.

Amazingly Aiden O’Brien has won 6 of the last 1o renewals and he’s set his stall out to win it again this year as 5 of the 15 horses currently declared are trained by him. But what are his chances?

For this race the best place to start is always those races I mentioned earlier as 13 of the last 14 winners of the St James Palace Stakes had finished in the top 4 of a European Guineas. In fact the last horse to have won the St James Palace stakes without a run in a Group 1 race that season was Shavian way back in 1990.

This years Guineas results were….

2010 Newmarket Guineas

1st Makfi
2nd Dick Turpin
3rd Canford Cliffs
4th Xtension

2010 Irish Guineas

1st Canford Cliffs
2nd Free Judgement
3rd Viscount Nelson
4th Steinbeck

2010 French Guineas

1st Lope De Vega
2nd Dick Turpin
3rd Shamalgan
4th Buzzword

It definitely pays to follow the Guineas form in this race and if we look at where winners of the St James’s Palace had finished in the respective Guineas we see the following: Newmarket: 2123415, Curragh: 21102111 and Longchamp: 1614.

The record of winners from the Newmarket 2000 Guineas is: 1451, Irish 2000 Guineas: 611071511, French 2000 Guineas: 16225135, German 2000 Guineas: 435 but it’s worth bearing in mind that since 1999 four of the last five beaten favourites were Guineas winners. Also, seven winners in that period had run in both the Newmarket and Irish Guineas (where four had made the frame in both).

If we look for these horses amongst the 15 declared for next weeks race I think it leaves us with- Makfi, Dick Turpin, Canford Cliffs, Free Judgement, Viscount Nelson and Steinbeck.

What is interesting is that no winner in the last 13 years has come direct from Newmarket to win at Ascot so this must count against Makfi. Also no horse in the last 11 years has won this race having run more than 9 times in their career so Free Judgement is looking a little over-raced.

All of which reduces our shortlist to 4: Canford Cliffs, Viscount Nelson, Steinbeck and Dick Turpin

I’ll be waiting for the race declarations before making my final decision as the draw plays a big part in this race. It’s run on the round course and only one horse in the last 14 years has managed to defy a high draw i.e. within 2 of the highest stall number. The last thing to remember is that outsiders don’t usually win this race as 8/1 is the biggest priced winner since 1997.

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Scoop 6

I forgot to mention yesterday that our 20 lottery lines went down on Saturday night meaning the syndicate fund is now depleted. If the fund starts to roll over again I’ll think about setting up another attempt.

In the meantime if anyone wants to join a syndicate for the Scoop6 there is the site I have mentioned before to consider. They actually won the Scoop6 last Saturday (along with 10 other people) and now have the chance to go for the £50,000 Bonus Fund this week.

You can check them out at  www.iScooped6.co.uk 

(I have no association with this site and make no money if you decide to join any of their syndicates. I’m simply advising that the site is there if you’re looking for a regular Scoop6 syndicate)

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Bonus Ball Bet

I’ve started the BBB up again and managed to get £20 in the prizefund last Saturday when Judge ‘N Jury just held on for 4th place in the Epsom Dash. I’ll be having 1 bet a day next week at Ascot in an attempt to boost this figure further.

Full details can be found by clicking on the BBB Tab on the top menu or you can simply send your number (1-49) to bonusball@nag-nag-nag.co.uk (there was a slight problem with this email address immediately after I gave it out last time but it’s working fine now.)

———

And finally, don’t forget about our 2 publications for next week…

1) The 144 page trends guide covering all 30 races

Available now from: http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

and

2) Gary’s Tipping Guide which also covers all 30 races.

Available from: http://www.horseraceoutsiders.co.uk/

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s Royal Ascot next week and this year looks like being a vintage meeting with many races featuring exciting clashes between the top horses from their respective divisions. The St James Palace looks like being the highlight of the week with the winners of the Irish and English 2000 Guineas renewing rivalry along with the Newmarket runner-up Dick Turpin and Ballydoyle’s hype horse Steinbeck.

I’ll be taking a look at that race tomorrow but first I’m going to turn my attention to the older milers and the opening race of the Festival…..

Queen Anne Sakes

It’s shaping up to be the race that decides the European mile bragging rights for older horses as it pitches the top UK miler Paco Boy against Ireland’s big hope, Rip Van Winkle, and the French wonder filly, Goldikova . The ante-post betting sees the three of them at the head of the market with at least 14/1 available on any other runner. It looks for all intents and purposes to be a three horse race but there are a few things to note before wading into any one of them…..

Goldikova

Firstly, no filly or mare has won this race in 50 years of trying which means Goldikova has got to be every bit as good as she was last year to stand a chance of overturning that statistic. The last 8 fillies to try and win the Queen Anne finished 07246723 and included the first and second favourites (Darjina and Finsceal Beo) in the 2008 race. If you add in the fact that there has only been 1 winner of the Queen Anne trained outside of GB and Ireland since the mid 1970’s and the case for Goldikova is weakened quite a bit.

Paco Boy

and this is his record when he’s raced with 11 or more opponents…..373d844

I think you’ll agree that it shows he has a definite preference for a small field!

I have no idea how many trainers will decide to run their horses against the big three and the race doesn’t have a history of large fields (only 4 times in the last 10 years has the race  attracted 11 or more runners) but it’s definitely worth remembering should quite a few horses line-up in the stalls next Tuesday.

Another slight negative for Paco Boy is that only one winner in the last 15 years had managed to win the Lockinge and only 1 horse to have won the Sandown Mile has ever won the Queen Anne. To be fair the horse that managed to do the Sandown Mile - Queen Anne double was in fact Paco Boy but it does mean that no horse has ever managed to win all three races in the same season.

Rip Van Winkle

Rip Van Winkle spent much of last Spring and the early Summer staring at Sea The Stars’s backside as that one disappeared into the horizon but he got back into the winners enclosure when returned to a mile for the Sussex Stakes. He comfortably accounted for Paco Boy that day, taking full advantage of the 8lb weight for age allowance, and followed up by taking the QEII stakes at Ascot 2 months later. The last we saw of him was when he unsuccessfully contested the Breeders Cup Classic as the 2/1 favourite and this is where his problem lies. You have to go all the way back to 1997 to find the last horse to have won this race on his seasonal re-appearance and back then it was simply a Group 2 race that didn’t take quite as much winning.

Of the three I’d probably side with Rip Van Winkle but as is the norm with me I’ll be looking for something from the other end of the betting spectrum to cause a shock.

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Thebes and Big Fields

There is another horse that’s worth avoiding if he takes up his engagement in the Wokingham next week at Ascot and that’s Thebes. I’ve mentioned this horse and his record in big field handicaps before but for those of you who may have missed that post here are the stats.

He’s a pretty decent handicapper who’s invariably in the top 6 of his races and has won 7 of his 41 starts. With 15 top 3 finishes in his career his form figures usually look fairly good and you may feel like chancing him as an outsider in one of these big field sprints. But beware as although he usually contests these types of races his record in them is terrible.

On the 9 occassions he has run in a race with 20 or more runners the best position he has managed is 7th.
His full record reads 22nd of 28, 10/20, 22/25, 27/27, 18/20, 13/21, 16/26, 12/25 and 7th of 29.

When contesting races of 11 runners or fewer his record reads: 211157123416611 which for a handicapper is pretty decent.

With a field of 25+ runners almost guaranteed for the Wokingham he’s one to avoid no matter how good his recent form looks.

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As I mentioned yesterday we’re going for a two pronged attack on the Royal meeting next week with

1) The trends guide covering all 30 races

Available now from: http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

and

2) Gary’s Tipping Guide which also covers all 30 races.

Available from: http://www.horseraceoutsiders.co.uk/

Good luck,
Gavin.

We all saw how easily Workforce won the Derby and he’ll probably go on to be a very good horse but there were a few other horses that caught my eye over the weekend with a view to some upcoming races. They probably won’t scale the same heights as the Derby winner is destined to but I reckon we’ll get paid out on these….

1) Shakespearean

The Godolphin stable seemed to have turned the corner, just in time for Royal Ascot, as their runners performed very well at the meeting. I thought Shakespearean was particularly impressive in winning the Surrey Stakes considering it was his first run of the season and he was giving weight away to all the runners. There were quite a few 100+ rated horses in the field so the form looks solid and I reckon the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot may be on the agenda for this one.

2) Approve

A 2yo from the Willie Haggas yard who ran 4th at Epsom on Saturday. He was beaten 2 1/2 lengths at the finish but would have been a lot closer had the gap opened up for him on the rail. It didn’t, and Eddie Ahern had to switch him to the outside to make a strong challenge in the last 150 yards. The way he stayed on over 6f may persuade connections to go for one of the minor 2yo races at Royal Ascot, specifically the Chesham Stakes over 7f on the Saturday. Failing that I reckon he’ll be one to look out for this summer in the better class 2yo Nurseries.

3) Mull of Killough

If this horse hasn’t been laid out for the Hunt Cup I’d be very surprised. He made his seasonal debut running 3rd in the Lincoln and followed that up with a 21st in the Spring Cup when sent off the 13/2 second favourite. That was a particularly rough race that saw Mull of Killough suffer more than most and he was allowed to amble home when his chance had gone. But that was nothing to his run on Friday when again he suffered bad luck in running just as he came to challenge for the race. He was repeatedly blocked in down the home straight and inside the final furlong before Jamie Heffernan accepted the situation and eased his horse down to finish a very unlucky 5th. After all that he was still only beaten 2 1/2 lengths and granted better luck in the notoriously difficult Hunt Cup I can see him being very competitive. 20/1 looks good to me.

4) Gertrude Bell

Her 7 length 5th in the Oaks tells only half the story as she looked the likely winner from the 2 furlong pole only for her stamina to give out on her. She weakened quite drastically late on in the race and I think a drop back in trip to around 10 furlongs will see her make up into a genuine Group 1 performer. The Nassau Stakes at Glorious Goodwood looks the obvious choice given the record of 3yo’s in that race but I’d imagine Mr Gosden will probably give her one last chance at 12f in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot. It’s usually a pretty poor Group 2 race and she may just get away with her stamina but if you’re reading this John, forget the Irish Oaks and bring her back in trip for Goodwood, there’s a good chap.

5) Coordinated Cut

Bit of a long range hope this one as I reckon Coordinated Cut is tailormade for the St Leger. In all three of his runs this season I’ve looked at him and thought this horse will love the step up past 1m 4f. He was all about stamina as a 2yo and after his gutsy seasonal debut win he appeared to lack the speed of the front two in the Dante. His run on Saturday in the Derby had all the hallmarks of a horse in need of a trip and I’d imagine that Michael Bell will be planning his season along those lines now. The Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, the Voltigeur at York followed by the St Leger. He’s currently 12/1 for the final Classic of the season.

———–

Royal Ascot

This week I’ll be deep in study for the biggest flat meeting of the year, Royal Ascot. It wasn’t a great meeting for me last year and I gave up counting the number of placed horses I had over the 5 days. The trends were very good but I just couldn’t pick the right one when left with a choice of 2 or 3 runners. Last years Wokingham is a race that still gives me nightmares as I spent a day and a half umming and arring whether to go with Jimmy Styles or High Standing. They both had perfect profiles but, for some reason which I can’t remember, I eventually went with Jimmy Styles only to see High Standing romp home. To add insult to injury Jimmy Styles went on to win the Ayr Gold Cup later in the season without a penny of my money on him. Darn!

The trends guide for Royal Ascot will be out on Monday but we do have a 4 race ante-post guide which is out now. You can get your copy and pre-order the full guide by clicking below….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Also, Gary is going to be doing a guide for Royal Ascot that will be a purely tipping look at all 30 races. He’ll be giving his personal opinion on each race and trying to find a big priced winner to back. The days races will be available from the evening before.

He is currently writing an ante-post look at the two big betting handicaps (Hunt Cup & Wokingham) and this will be ready later this afternoon/evening depending on how long it takes me to put in the full stops and commas. Those people who have already paid will have this guide sent out to them as soon as it’s ready.

His record at the big meetings this year has been nothing short of phenomenal and if you’ve backed any of his winners and want to help support his wife and 6 kids then the guide is just £20. Available below….

http://www.horseraceoutsiders.co.uk/

Good luck,
Gavin.

The Derby

A horse by horse guide…..

Al Zir:

Pros: Ran a decent 3rd in the Racing Post Trophy lasts season and doesn’t have the front two from that race to worry about today. Keiren Fallon is on board and no one knows how to ride Epsom better than him.
Cons: Frankie prefers the chances of Rewilding and his 9th in the Guineas wasn’t a very good run as all of the last 11 Derby winners had finished in the top 2 on their previous start.

At First Sight:

Pros: As he’s a pacemaker, if you back him you’ll at least have the horse in front for around 10-12 furlongs of the race
Cons: He was well beaten by Midas Touch in the Derrinstown Trial and, in today’s race, after setting a strong pace for his stablemates will have burnt himself out well before the final furlong.

Azmeel:

Pros: He finished 2nd in the Sandown Classic trial and won the Dee Stakes at Chester. He’s only once finished out of the first two in his career when a beaten favourite in a sales race at the Curragh. One of the more likely runners to stay the trip.
Cons: The form of his Sandown 2nd hasn’t worked out very well and neither trial he’s run in this year is renowned for providing the Derby winner

Bullet Train:

Pros: Trained by the mestro Henry Cecil and he won the Lingfield Derby Trial very impressively.
Cons: The last Derby winner to have won the Lingfield trial en-route was High Rise in 1998 and this years race was very poor for a Group 3. Made his debut as a 2yo at Yarmouth and it’s usual for a Derby winner to make his debut at a Grade 1 track (this trend goes back to at least 1990)

Buzzword:

Pros: Is bred to appreciate the trip and the stable is in good form.
Cons: Has been well beaten in Group company and hasn’t won for 5 races which is a massive trends negative. He’s also run a lot more times than is usual for a Derby winner (10 runs) with all of the last 11 winners having run no more than 7 times.

Coordinated Cut:

Pros: Was the early ante-post favourite for the Derby after his well touted debut win at Doncaster when with Peter Chapple-Hyam. Didn’t seem to progress when he only beat one home in the Racing Post Trophy but has since changed stables to Michael Bell and has run very well on both occassions this season. looks sure to appreciate the 1m 4f trip.
Cons: Ran 3rd in the Dante and it’s a well known trend that no horse beaten in that trial has EVER won the Derby.

Hot Prospect:

Pros: A decent 2yo who has run creditably in defeat on two starts this year. Gave Bullet Train a tough time in the Lingfield Derby Trial until weakening in the last half furlong.
Cons: Has been beaten by both Coordinated Cut and Bullet Train this season and there seems to reason why he will reverse placings here. Yet to win in Pattern company unlike the last 11 Derby winners.

Jan Vermeer:

Pros: Bullet proof trends profile and unbeaten since his debut. Won his trial race very easily despite giving weight and fitness away to his rivals.
Cons: His last run was just 13 days ago and may ‘bounce’.

Midas Touch

Pros: Won the Derrinstown Stud last time out and that has been the number 1 trial for the Derby in the last decade.
Cons: That was a poor renewal of that trial with just 4 runners and Jan Vermeer has already beaten him when they both ran in the Criterium at the end of last season. Unsurprisingly Johhny Murtagh has jumped ship.

Rewilding

Pros: Improving 3yo who has been supplemented by his new connections into the race after his impressive win in a Listed trial at Goodwood. Frankie Dettori’s choice of Godolphin’s trio and he looks a major player.
Cons: He’s done little wrong but the slight doubt is that he has yet to win above Listed Class.

Ted Spread

Pros: Won his trial in the style of a battler and in the process proved he handles a sharp track and the distance. He scores quite well on the trends and had some fair 2yo form.
Cons: The last Chester Vase winner to win the Derby was the mighty Shergar and it would be a big surprise if he is in that league! The horse he beat at Chester was hammered by Jan Vermeer next time out and he could probably do with a bit of rain..

Workforce

Pros: His trainer knows how to get one ready for the Derby and this one has been his number one hope for along time. Ran a fine second in the Dante last time on his seasonal debut when he had excuses (the bit slipped through his mouth) and doesn’t have the winner to worry about now.
Cons: It’s that trend again ‘no horse beaten in the Dante has EVER won the Derby’ and it’s been some time since a horse so inexperienced (just 2 runs) has won the Derby.

Right, lets have a go at forecasting the complete result ( I must be mad…)

1st Jan Vermeer - handily placed behind pacemakers. Sent to the front 1 furlong out. Stayed on well
2nd Rewilding - Mid division. Effort from 2 furlongs out. Challenged for lead entering final furlong but readily outpaced.
3rd Bullet Train - ran just off the pacemaker but well clear of the rest of the field. Caught in last furlong. Ran on well to hold third.
4th Workforce - Out the back. Ran on well to take fourth but never troubled leaders.
5th Coordinated Cut - Raced in midfield before effort and outpaced 2 furlongs out. Stayed on again close home.
6th Ted Spread - Held up. Stayed on from 3 out but never in contention.
7th Midas Touch - Raced in rear. Never reached challenging position.
8th Al Zir - Mid-division. Challenged from 2 furlongs out. Weakened final furlong.
9th Buzzword - In rear throughout.
10th Azmeel - Mid division until effort 3 furlongs out. Still with leaders until weakened final furlong.
11th Hot Prospect - Raced with leaders until weakened rapidly from 3 furlongs out.
12th At First Sight - Set strong pace until headed and weakened from 2 furlongs out. Eased when beaten. Tailed off.

There’ probably more chance of me winning the lottery than that happening but it should be fun to see how accurate it is.

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Britain’s Got Talent

It’s the final tonight and although it doesn’t have the best line-up of talent they’ve ever had on the show it should still be a great night’s TV viewing. Here are my own personal thoughts on the contestants……

SPELLBOUND

Brilliant gymnasts and undoubtedly the best act in the final. Their audition and semi-final acts were flawless and featured great choices of music and feats of gymnastictry (?) BUT there’s so much going on it’s difficult to take it all in on a TV screen and can they come up with a third amazing set? The most likely winners but not much value at around even money.

Kieran Gaffney (10/1)

Plays the drums and plays them really well BUT apart from that Cadbury’s advert with the gorilla has there ever been an exciting drum solo performance? I think not. He’ll probably get Phil Collins’s vote but he won’t get mine.

Liam McNally (20/1)

A youngster who can sing quite well and will appeal to the ‘older’ viewer BUT he’s not in the same class as Aled Jones was at that age and will need a great song choice and an improved performance to stand a chance of winning.

Tina and Chandi (8/1)

I have a real problem with dog acts, once you’ve seen one dog roll over or lift it’s paw you’ve seen them all. There was a similar act in an earlier Season of this show and they were miles better than these two but still didn’t win. You’d be barking mad to vote for this act.

Twist and Pulse (16/1)

Two annoying brothers who shake their arms and legs around like a couple of demented drunks on a night out in Cardiff. I think they spelt their name wrong, it should be Twit and Repulse

Connected (22/1)

A pint-size Westlife that makes you ask, why? BUT they will get the teenage vote who apparently make up the largest majority of voters for this type of show and will therefore probably make the top 3. (Bluesquare go 22/1 at 1/5th odds the top 3)

Janey Cutler (8/1)

Scottish singer who is about 105 and deaf as a post. She couldn’t hear the backing track in the semi-final causing her to sing completely out of sync with the music and won’t win if she makes that mistake again.

Tobias Mead (33/1)

Started off as a backing dancer for the 80’s group the Nolans (not exactly Beyonce is it?) and won through his audition with a bizarre back to front dance act that involved him putting his hoodie on the wrong way round and waving his arms about. I’m sure Kriss Kross did that back in the 80’s. His semi-final act had some more dancing and a gold ball flying around the stage which I’m sure I also saw stage magician David Copperfield do in the 80’s(but without the dancing). Unsurprisingly he’s about 80’s on Betfair to win tonight.

Christopher Stone (40/1)

or should that be Chrizzzzzzztopher Stone. He’s a 29yo singing accountant (yes, really) with all the personality of a PAYE spread-sheet. He can sing very well but he’s not exciting and certainly doesn’t have the appeal to be another Paul Potts. It all adds up to no chance.

Paul Burling (7/1)

Which just leaves the comedian & impressionist Paul Burling who you’d have to say is pretty decent at both. He did a great Harry Hill sketch to win his Semi-Final and if he has another routine up his sleeve that is just as funny (and he hasn’t exhausted all the people he can mimic) he could surprise. Worth a second look in the betting.

 My Top 3: Spellbound / Paul Burling / Connected

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Bonus Ball Bet

A terrible start yesterday with Hannon and Hughes letting the side down but if that hasn’t put you off entering then here are the details for the BBB….

1) It’s completely 100% FREE to enter
2) Anyone reading this blog can enter
3) Simply send in the number (1-49) that you think will be the Bonus Ball for the National Lottery Main Draw on Wednesday 30th June to bonusball@nag-nag-nag.co.uk
4) Please put your number in the subject field and include your name in the email.
5) Anyone correctly guessing the Bonus Ball number will receive an equal share of the Prize Pot.

There’s plenty of time left to get the Prize Pot bulging and for today’s attempt I’ll be having £5ew Judge ‘N Jury (3.15 Epsom)

Click on the Bonus Ball Bet tab at the top of the page to get full details of the Prize Fund

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Lottery

The 20 lines for tonight’s Lottery draw syndicate are….

I’m hoping for a bit better luck than I’ve been having recently or, as Rog commented, it looks like it’s another caravan holiday for the family this Summer. Please no, I don’t think I could handle another 7 days in a glorified cardboard box…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’ve spent a lovely week in a caravan in North Somerset with the family (and an unwelcome colony of ants!) but there’s only so much lounging around by the pool drinking Budweiser I can take and I’m now looking forward to getting back home. The biggest problem I’ve faced this week has been trying to find a Racing Post but the manager of the local Betfred has been very helpful and let me have his copy the days I’ve been unable to secure a paper of my own. On the betting front I’ve managed to break even this week thanks to Forte Dei Marmi on Monday but would have finished well infront if Dylanesque had managed to hold on last night. Guess what folks? Another second!

Before I leave I’ll be having  a couple of bets on today’s racing…..

Firstly, I’m going to start the Bonus Ball Bet up again this month and will attempt to get the prizefund rolling with 4 horses at Epsom today. I reckon Richard Hannon and Richard Hughes may have a decent afternoon and will be having a £1ew Lucky 15 on….

Ordnance Row 1.40 Epsom
Vitznau 2.10
Lucky General 4.50
Kajima 5.25

Details on this months competition will be announced tomorrow.

I’ve had a really big double on Timepiece and Bullet Train for the two Classics and if I’m lucky enough to collect I’ll be off to Vegas for my birthday to play in the World Series of Poker. Incidentally, I’ve been trying to win a seat for the WSOP on Pokerstars this week and have been frustrated by a really bad run of luck at just the wrong time. The 5 tournaments I’ve played have seen me finish 11th, 16th, 19th, 8th and 22nd out of the usual 350 runners when a top 3 finish is required to win a seat. Very annoying.

With those two Henry Cecil runners already covered, as a saver, I’ll be having 3 doubles and a treble on…

Aviate (The Oaks)
Fame And Glory (Coronation Cup)
Jan Vermeer (Derby)

That should just about use up all my remaining holiday spending money but I’ll have to remember to keep £5.50 to get back over the bridge into Wales…..

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Festival Trends

Our Epsom Guide last year was probably one of the best we produced with plenty of winners (up to 14/1) over the two days and included the forecast in both the Oaks and Derby, the tricast in the second race of the meeting, two ’lay’ horses which both got beat and the day 1 Placepot 154 times!

This years guide covers all 14 races at the two day meeting and is now ready for download. Our 2010 Derby and Oaks Ante-Post guide highlighted two horses that have since been heavily supported and now sit at the head of the betting markets.

The Epsom Guide is available for just £14.95. Click below to get your copy…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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Scoop6 / Lottery Syndicate

After wading through our 87 lotto lines it appears we managed a paltry 2 lines of 3 numbers which equates to just £20. I’ve re-invested the £20 in another 20 lines for Saturday’s draw. I’m back home later today so I’ll post the numbers then which will be in plenty of time for the draw…..

Good luck,
Gavin.