Monthly Archives: April 2010

It’s been a much debated topic of gambling for some time with punters split between the two camps. On the one side we have the group who say that surely any winner is value because it won and winning is all that is important regardless of what price you get while in the other camp we have those who don’t mind missing winners or who don’t mind backing losers as long as their bets constitute value as they reason in the long term it is a winning strategy.

I’ve written the post out but it’s a bit long so I’ll split it into two, today and tomorrow, and over the two posts I’ll try and explain the concept of value, how to identify it and, hopefully with the help of my brother, present balanced argument for and against value betting so you can make up your own mind. Here goes….

What is ‘value’ when talked about in betting?

Simply put, ‘Value’ in betting is when you are able to take odds about a horse (or event) that are greater than the actual true odds of that horse winning (or the event taking place.)

How do you identify it?

The best way to go about finding value is to work out the true odds of the actual event occurring and seeing if they differ from the actual odds available. Sometimes easier said than done …

An example of an event that is really easy to work out is, the toss of a coin. In a fair coin flip Heads or Tails have an equal chance of coming up so the true odds are evens (1/1) for Heads and evens for Odds. Find someone who will give you 6/4 on Heads and you now have value. Get your money on even if  Heads has come up for the last 100 flips, it’s true odds are always evens no matter what has taken place before hand.

How about a Roulette wheel? 36 numbers and a Zero on a standard non-bias wheel means the true odds of any number coming up is 36/1. It’s no coincidence that casino’s offer you 35/1 on your number coming up! They have the value on their side. But should they ever offer you 40/1 on any number coming up, even if they only let you back one number, you have to put your money on. It doesn’t matter that you will only win very rarely (1 in 36 spins) the fact is you have value and using this strategy you will win in the long run.

How about the odds of picking the Ace of Spades out of a deck of cards? It’s a true 51/1 chance and therefore anything over that is value.

Now all of these examples are easy to work out the true odds because they have a specific number of outcomes that are possible. A coin can only come up heads or tails, the ball can only land in one of 37 different segments on a roulette wheel and there are only 52 possible cards to pick from in a standard card deck but what if you want to apply this to something that doesn’t have a limit to the number of outcomes and is a little more random? For example, say you wanted to bet on it being a White Christmas this year in London. How do you go about working out the true odds on something like that? How do you know what price is value?

Well it takes a little bit of ‘guestimation’ and a little research. According to the Met Office, White Christmas’s in the capital come along about once every 15-20 years (it last happened in 1999) or roughly 6% of the time.

If snow falls in London on December 25th roughly one time every 16 years then 15/1 would be about the true odds of it happening for any given year. If you can find anyone offering 20/1 or better on this year being a White Christmas you now have ‘value’ and you should get your money on. Unfortunately, the bookmakers know all this and offer 8/1 which is no value at all. But of course there’s no real reason why it should snow once every 16 years and you may have to wait another 30 before it does so again and although you have the value you won’t get paid.

Getting value doesn’t guarantee you will win on a certain event it just means you have the odds on your side. Keep betting when the odds are in your favour and you will win in the long run. That is the theory.

You may have heard the story of an intrepid couple of  punters who about 20 years ago went around the entire country visiting independent bookmakers to get odds about a Hole-in-One occurring at a specific golf tournament. They had worked out the true odds to be about 2/1 on such an occurrence taking place but were able to take prices ranging from 16/1 – 100/1 from bookmakers who were, naively, of the opinion that it rarely happened and was money in the bank. They made thousands of pounds simply by extracting maximum value on an event that, for once, the bookmakers priced up wrongly. But when you think about it, roughly 150 highly skilled professional golfers playing 4 par 3 holes 4 times each in a tournament, 100/1 about one of them getting a hole-in-one does seem like good value! That’s right, bookmakers were of the opinion that a hole-in-one in a professional golf event happened once every 100 tournaments!

They didn’t win on every tournament but they knew that they had 100/1 about something that happened once every 3 tournaments or so. The odds were very much in their favour!

Incidentally, my dad owned betting shops during the 80′s and was visited by the ‘hole in one gang’ and like most bookmakers in the area laid them their bets at ridiculous odds. Incredibly he managed to lay them the bet on one of the very few tournaments that season that didn’t feature a hole-in-one. Probably his only bit of good fortune in his bookmaking career…..

How do you apply it in horse-racing?

Which brings us onto horse-racing, probably the hardest event of all to work out real true odds in and also where the whole ‘value’ argument begins. With so many variables to take into account when trying to find a winner how do you know when a horse is value or not?

The simple truth is, there isn’t any firm way of determining what is value and what isn’t. It’s purely a matter of opinion. What may be value to you may not be value to someone else. You only have to look at Betfair to see that this is true. If everyone thought the same way then Betfair wouldn’t exist as nobody would be able to get the odds they wanted. But it does work because people have different opinions on what constitutes value in a certain race.

Obviously if someone had offered you 25/1 last year about Sea The Stars winning a 4 runner seller at Pontefract then this would be value as he would have been a very, very short price to win but it’s a bit harder to work out in a 30 runner sprint handicap at Royal Ascot where the value lies when they bet 10/1 the field.

The only way you can realistically do it is to make your own betting forecast up and compare these odds with what is available elsewhere. If you make the favourite an even money chance and you can get 2/1 on Betfair then this would look like the sort of bet that would appeal to value bettors. But to make up your own betting shows you first have to know about betting percentages, over-rounds and how markets are formed. It’s no use just assigning random odds to each runner….

End of Part 1. In tomorrows post I’ll show you how betting markets work, how to make up a market on a horse race and how this helps you find the value. Plus I’ll be presenting the case for the defence of Value Betting with Gary acting as the prosecution!

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Talking of value. I doubt there’s a better offer at the moment than our Festival Trends May Madness which gives every guide until the end of next month for just £19.95!

Newmarket, Chester, York, Ascot, Lingfield, Haydock, Curragh and Sandown are all included for just the one price. Over 8 meetings and 40 races for under £20. That’s real value!

So far this year we’re up over 80points to level stakes at SP (at advised prices or betfair odds it’s over 100points).

There’s a 7 race guide for Newmarket this weekend available right now including our tips for both Guineas….

You can sign up here…. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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Last thing

As the missus was watching Come Dine With Me on some obscure satellite channel last night I decided to have a game of poker to pass the time as watching 5 strangers cooking food and insulting each other isn’t my idea of fun. It turned out to be a good decision as I won a seat in the Coral Masters Poker Tour which starts next Saturday in Bristol. It’s 30k to the winner which would be nice and if you fancy following my progress in the tournament they have a live update website which I’ll find the address for later.

I’ve also just emailed Corals to see if they’re betting on the event as I reckon I must be a 100/1 shot against all those decent players. I’ll keep you posted……

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Gary has been burning the midnight oil going through Sunday’s Sprint Handicap and he’s now released his eagerly awaited selections for the weekend. Click on Gary’s Tips to see which outsiders he fancies for the Newmarket meeting.

There wasn’t too much to report in my own personal bets last week as I didn’t have that many bets. After losing my money on the Friday I got most of it back on Saturday thanks to Ashkazar and I’m So Lucky (it would have been all of it back and a bit more besides but for ‘mistime Murphy’ on The Package). The next couple of weeks should be a bit busier so my betting exploits feature will appear again in a week or so time.

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Gary and the Guineas

Despite saying the Guineas weren’t his type of race Gary has backed a couple for this weekend and if you click on the tab Gary’s Tips(top left menu) you can read what they are. I know he’s been through the 6f sprint handicap on Sunday with a fine toothcomb and has a couple of really strong fancies for the race. He’s just waiting on the draw tomorrow before finalising his bets. If you’ve been following his exploits over the last couple of weeks (and I know a lot of you have) then you won’t want to miss his next post!!

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VALUE

In Friday’s post I’ll be taking a look at the controversial subject of ‘Value Betting’. Controversial because some people believe that any winner you back is value as ‘a winner is a winner’ while others would rather miss backing a winner if the price isn’t what they consider ‘right’ and don’t mind betting a loser as long as they got ‘the value’ believing this strategy will win in the long run.

I’ll look at…..What is value? How do you identify it? How does it work? Value systems, value betting, arbing and betting over-rounds.

Who’s right and who’s wrong? I’ll leave you to decide after weighing up the evidence.

I’ll try and get some software set up so we can take a vote.

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3.55 Ascot Sagaro Stakes

A few trends for the race….

13 of the last 14 winners were 9/1 or shorter although only 2 favourites have won since 1996
12 of the last 14 winners had won at Listed class or better (1 exception was runner-up)
11 of the last 14 winners had won over 2 miles
10 of the last 11 winners were rated 101 or higher
10 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (2 of the exceptions finished 6th in the John Porter Stakes at Newbury)

John Dunlop hasn’t had a runner since 2004 but previous to that had won this race 4 times from 15 runners.

Age doesn’t help too much as the winners have ranged from 4yo – 10yo with every age in between having won at least one renewal.

Which I think leaves it between Askar Tau and Akmal (though Balkan Knight is not out of it at 50/1).

The Guineas

I’ve had a good look through the trends and form for both Guineas and at this stage I have a shortlist of 5 horses for each race. If you’d like a completely FREE trends guide for the 1000 & 2000 Guineas which includes the full data and analysis plus those shortlists then you can download it from below…..

COMPLETELY FREE TRENDS GUIDE FOR 1000 & 2000 GUINEAS

As normal it’s a completely 100% free and direct link with no sign ups, payment or card details required.
Just one click and the guide is yours.

At the moment I’ve had a little each way dabble on a couple of Barry Hill’s horses, Red Jazz (80/1) and Sent From Heaven (50/1).

Good luck,
Gavin.

A tale of two claimers…..

It was the best of rides, it was the worst of rides. While all the plaudits and accolades were rightfully being heaped on 7lb claimer AP Heskin after his fantastic ride on Church Island in Saturday’s Bet365 Chase there must have been some envious looks in his direction from another claimer who less than 24 hours before had been booed and jeered by angry punters. Danny Cook, riding at Newton Abbot on Friday night, had finally got a win out of the recently frustrating mare Gaspara who had been well supported into 5/2 favourite. Unfortunately he had decided to miss out the second last hurdle and was obviously disqualified for taking the wrong course. Just about forgivable for a young jockey learning his trade if it was the first offence but this, unbelievably, was his 3rd such misdemeanour in less than 12 months!! Let’s hope the Crime and Punishment are equally matched.

Gavin Priestley’s: A series of unfortunate events…..

While Gary was making hay yet again I was having a personal nightmare. Friday’s horses all got beaten and I think I experienced the whole gamut of reasons known to punters. I had the unlucky in running (Red Badge), the nailed on the line (Solwhit), the well stuffed (Inoma James), the injured (Di Stefano), the running on too late (Emeebee) and the disqualified winner (Gaspara). Luckily I did manage to recoup some of those losses on Saturday with the two other Pipe horses I’ve been following this season - I’m So Lucky and Ashkazar. The Package would have got me a nice trixie up but Timmy Murphy decided that the best way to avoid joining fellow stable jockey Danny Cook in the stewards room for taking the wrong course was to be the last horse in the field and follow everyone else for as long as possible. By the time he’d switched on his Sat-Nav, worked out the way to the finish line and put The Package in the race it was far too late and even the 13yo Monkerhostin carrying 11-05 finished in front of him.

How to win friends and influence people…..

It’s quite simple. You just need to tip 18/1 and 20/1 big race winners on consecutive Saturday’s on the back of 100/1, 50/1 and 33/1 winners over the previous fortnight. As I said easy, just ask Gary, the new Lord of the (betting) Rings

All’s well that ends well….

At Royal Ascot last year I had two bankers on the trends to get beat and gave them out as ‘lays’. They both had very strong trends to overcome and were very much anti-trends horses. But not much went right at the meeting and they capped an eventful 5 days by both winning their respective races. Those two horses were Paco Boy and Glass Harmonium and it was particularly pleasing for us at Trends HQ when they won the 2 Group races on Saturday’s Sandown card. We gave them out as both Likeliest Trends winner and clear Top Rated selections and hopefully all trends subscribers are now fully repaid.

All quiet on the punting front….

With the exception of a small wager on Ashkar Tau on Wednesday it’ll be a case of me keeping my punting powder dry for this weekend’s Newmarket meeting and Chester the following week. Beyond Desire isn’t forward enough to contest the 1000 Guineas at this stage so I’ve done my money on that one but I’ll hopefully get it back in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. I’ll be going through the Guineas this afternoon and be back tomorrow with my initial thoughts on the race.

I’m not sure what Gary’s plans are this week but after his incredible start I’m sure you’re all eagerly awaiting his next tips. Given his penchant for big field sprint handicaps there’s bound to be some wagering in that type of race at Newmarket this weekend along with Haydock’s handicap Hurdle that used to be the Swinton Insurance the following week. Watch this space….

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

Our recent good run continued on Saturday when we gave both Group winners on the Sandown card. Paco Boy at 11/10 and Glass Harmonium at 5/1 more than made up for The Package just failing to make the frame. Next stop for us is the Guineas Meeting this weekend and we’ll be hoping to emulate last years Guide where we successfully found Sea The Stars 8/1, Amour Propre 7/1 and Take The Hint 15/2.

For the year so far we are up over 40 points for BOTH our Likeliest Trends Winner and Top Rated selections (86pts profit combined). Check our results here

Remember we’re offering every trends guide until the end of May for just £19.95. That includes amongst others The Guineas, Chester May meeting, York Dante, Irish Guineas, Ascot, Goodwood and Sandown….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

The 1000 and 2000 Guineas preview guide will be available tomorrow morning from the Members Area.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Is it really Friday already? Where did the week  go?

It’s time for a look at the racing for today and tomorrow

Gary’s also put up some big outsiders today and will be back later with his thoughts on tomorrows bet365 Chase. See ‘Gary’s Tips’
Please don’t ask me how he comes up with these horses.

FRIDAY

For today, it’s a question of throwing out the ‘rule book of successful punting’ as I break the cardinal rule and back horses simply because I lost money on them last time. We all do it and I’m certainly no exception. You’d probably be best advised to steer clear of these…

Inoma James: I really fancied this one for the Midlands Grand National (as did quite a lot of punters) but he was never travelling and raced in rear throughout before being pulled up. The trainer reckoned he didn’t like going left handed and a return to a more suitable trip at Punchestown for the 4.20 should suit him better as he won well here in January.

Solwhit: I’m not too sure what happened to him in the Champion Hurdle but it must have had something to do with his interupted preparation leading up to the race. This is a far tougher race than Cheltenham’s Champion Hurdle but Solwhit is 3 wins from 3 runs around Punchestown and I’m expecting a much better run this afternoon (5.30pm)

Gaspara: This really is the very last chance I’m giving this mare. I mean it. Just 13 months ago she ran 15 lengths 5th to Quevega at the Cheltenham Festival off a rating of 140. Now here she is in a class 4 race at Newton Abbot (5.55pm) racing off 107. She steps back up in trip, she has first time blinkers on today and Pipe has won 3 of the last 6 runnings of this race. Last chance saloon…

Emeebee: He’s on my list of horses to follow but forget his last run as he was drawn on the wrong side at Leicester. Down in grade for this 4.35 Wolverhampton AW race I expect we’ll see a much better run this afternoon.

Di Stefano: He has become extremely disappointing since running 3rd at Royal Ascot and my only hope is that Kieren Fallon can conjure up some magic on this one in the 2.20 at Sandown.

Red Badge 1.10 Sandown: Probably the only one out of them all I really fancy. He didn’t handle the soft ground when being beaten in a Group 3 at the end of last season but this return to handicapping over an extra furlong should be right up his street. Undoubtedly my bet of the day.

It’s in hope rather than confidence I’m backing these and as I said earlier you’d probably be better advised to watch me lose my money rather than get involved with this assortment of dodgepots.

For those wanting a punt there’s always Gary’s outsiders or I’ll be back in the morning with a very confident selection in the Bet365 Chase.

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Festival Trends

We’re covering 2 from Punchestown and 1 from Sandown today with 1 from Punchestown and 3 from Sandown tomorrow including the Bet365 Chase. You can get all these races and every guide until the end of May for just £19.95. May is going to be a busy month with the Guineas, Chester and York Dante to name but a few of the big meetings.

Latest results for the Punchestown Festival. 2 winners from 6 races covered - Golden Silver 12/1 and Quevega 5/2
Since the start of the year we are over 40 points up on BOTH the Likeliest Trends Winner AND the Top Rated

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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DENMAN

Anyone who saw the Gold Cup from Punchestown on Wednesday probably witnessed Tony McCoy’s greatest ever ride in defeat. Only the great mans supreme strength kept the unco-operative Denman from running off the track and the fact he was eventually beaten only 6 lengths in fourth is testament to AP’s incredible horsemanship. The horse has obviously now got some big problems and it will take all of Paul Nicholl’s training skills to iron them out but one thing is certain, Denman will never again race on a right handed track!

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It’s the school PTA quiz tonight so I’m off to do a bit of swotting. We’re out to avenge last seasons defeat where we led until the final rounds only to succumb to over indulgence at the bar. Our team went from comfortable leaders to also rans in a matter of questions as we struggled to concentrate on the general knowledge round through a haze of Tesco’s Finest Chardonnay. Incredibly at the end of the night I bought every bottle of wine left (you’ve got to help your PTA at these fund raising events) to carry on the party at our house.

The lessons have been learnt…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

two Nationals, a 300 mile round trip, more winners than seconds, golf, holiday homes and a dead goldfish….That was the week that was….

It started and ended with a National and was one of the best weeks of punting I’ve had for a very long time. There were a few losers along the way, and of course a few seconds, but at last I managed to string some winners together.

I was having a good week anyway having backed Always Waining at 50′s, Sliver Adonis at 80′s and Big Time Billy at 36′s and it continued into the Saturday when I had £200 on Peddlers Cross in the first. I also had three doubles and a treble with Osana and Zaynar in the next two races. Osana finished second (no comment) so I had £200 on Zaynar as he was my bet of the day. What a strange race he ran but I knew he was beaten a long way from home and resigned myself to being level for the day well before Gerraghty lost his irons and plodded on for third. I think he probably needs about 4 1/2 miles. I wonder if he’s jumped fences yet? Grand National 2014 hot tip…..

I missed the 3.25 as we (the family) took advantage of the decent spring weather to go for a walk. It turned out for the best as I was going to back Rare Bob. Missing a loser is almost as good a feeling as backing a winner. I reckon if I missed backing a few more losers I’d be quite good at this betting lark.

Of course our walk took the necessary diversion past Betfred so I could get our Grand National bets on. Dylan is one of Tony McCoy’s greatest fans so obviously had his £1ew on Don’t Push It taking the 16/1 (teach em young I say, see below) and £1ew My Will. I did get a bit worried when he asked if he could do a reverse forecast though (maybe a bit too much for a 6yo to know about betting). Sam was on King Johns Castle and Dont Push It also. Ha, don’t they know the trends say horses carrying that much weight can’t win. How naive. Everyone knows Hello Bud (£50ew at 50/1) will win from Snowy Morning (£40ew at 25/1) with Priests Leap (£10ew at 100′s) back in third.

We got back home just in time to see King Johns Castle refuse to start. How I laughed, these amateur punters know nothing.

30 fences and 9 minutes later Dylan was riding the arm of the sofa in a style that even McCoy would have been proud of as he cheered his horse all the way to the line. To see his face as he charged around the room with his betting slip clutched in his hand was a joy to behold. We had a little maths lesson to work out how much he’d won, 16/1 at a quarter the odds, got him £22 back less his £4 stake. I reckon they should start teaching betting on the National Curriculum. It’s a great way to learn maths and fractions and the kids would have a great day out at the races. I think I’ll suggest it to the Racing for Change board.

I was immediately dispatched to Betfred to collect their winnings but managed to delay it long enough to coincide with the 5.00 Aintree as I had a couple I wanted to back in the race. Dee Ee Williams had run a nice race at Cheltenham previously and Issaquah had run second in the race last year when I had backed it at 50′s so they were my two against the field. I had £25ew on both and included our trends horse Nearby for a £1 forecast/tricast combination. Rarely has a race ever gone so well for me and as they jumped the last I had the first three horses at 11/1, 25/1 and 20/1. Quickly working out the approximate tricast returns was tempting fate and so it turned out as Leslingtaylor came through late on to snatch 3rd place and dash my £5000+ dreams. The forecast paid £267. So near, yet so far. Never have I been so disappointed at winning £700.

After a hectic week I took a few days off to recover from jetlag and all the excitement. We bought a fish tank and three goldfish with our winnings and a whole load of Spongebob aquarium ornaments to decorate it with. Our very own Bikini Bottom (don’t ask!).

Wednesday and the Newmarket Craven meeting. The real start of the flat season.

Having banged on about Paul Cole and the Spring Cup for two years it was nice to see him have two entries in the race so I backed them both (£5oew Moynahan/£2oew Pravda Street) along with Merigo (£25ew at 25′s) and Dom Dorgeval (£10ew at 33s) in the Scottish National plus a few doubles (4 x£2.50ew) too for good luck.

I also backed High Twelve (£40 lost), Fremont (£40 lost) and Timepiece (£100 lost). Remarkably none of them finished second, my luck must have changed!

Over at Cheltenham I had £40ew at 11′s on I’m So Lucky and watching the in-running betting on Betfair it looked good as he traded at 1/10. But what do you know, he managed to throw it away and finish second. Mmmm, time for Plan B. £60 at 6/1 Music Show. No seconds here thank you very much, not when King Kierens onboard. All hail the king…

My mood was slightly tempered by Quartz De Thaix winning at 20/1 over at Cheltenham. He was the horse we had lined up for the Something Wells race at the Cheltenham Festival but Venetia didn’t run him there. Darn. If I could just stop missing backing the winners while remembering to not back the losers I’d be quite good at this betting lark.

Thursday turned out even better. £40 Diescentric for Mr Cecil, £20 Equiano (£55 back of the approx. £2 million pounds that one owes me) and £100 Elusive Pimpernel. My only mistake was having one of those silly sentimental bets and my £50 Tranquil Tiger got the result it deserved.

Friday started off badly when we found one of the goldfish floating at the top of the fishtank. 3 days of Spongebob Squarepants was all the poor fish could stomach. I know how he feels.

It got better though when a few of my Cheltenham Festival fancies won at rewarding odds. Caroles Legacy £40 at 3/1 looked a good bet and she won like one too whereas Bullet Train £40 at 3/1 looked a good bet but didn’t win like one. Obviously that one finished second.

It was then time to pick up Dylan from school and head down to Devon for a weekend of house hunting. I was hoping for a clear run so I could get to Devon for the 7.50 at Cheltenham and with the Gods still smiling down on me it meant the traffic was light and the driving conditions perfect for own 150 mile jaunt. I arrived in plenty of time, dumped the family at my mums and walked into Paignton for my £50 on Ashkazar. In the words of the late George Peppard as Hanibal Smith ‘I love it when a plan comes together’.

Saturday morning I left the missus to get ready and spent the morning in Ladbrokes. I had 4 x £25ew singles and a £1ew Lucky 15 on Manifest 8/1, Merigo 16/1, Pravda Street and Puff. It was then off to look around some flats and apartments. Funnily enough out of all the ones we looked at the one we’ve decided on wasn’t even on our list of possibles. A new conversion of apartments were up for sale at the end of my mum’s road and they just happened to be having an open day. I think it was meant to be.

After that it was off to pick up my nephews for a round of Pitch n Putt at Broadsands. On a sunny day this has to be the most beautiful pitch and putt’s in the country. It’s set on the top of the cliffs overlooking the entire bay from Brixham to Torquay with the steam train running around the top of the cliff and across the viaduct. £1 to park your car all weekend, £10 for 4 rounds of golf and £1.20 for a Feast chocolate lolly provided an excellent afternoon on the cheap. I even managed to make a par on the tricky 5th. It also has an excellent mobile phone signal and as I approached the 8th my phone suddenly went crazy. Texts were flying in and phone calls were stacking up which I assumed meant either Merigo had won the Scottish National or my mobile number had been posted on Facebook next to a picture of Cheryl Cole.

After that I couldn’t concentrate and my game went to pieces. I hooked, sliced and 3 putted the last two holes to hand victory to Dylan, Sam1, Sam 2 and Joe. It cost me another round of ice-creams but I figured my bet would just about cover them and I sat on the beach in the glorious sunshine trying to work out how much Manifest’s defeat had cost me (just under £3000!).

Still it was a good days work and I won enough money last week to pay half the deposit on our new apartment. If I can keep finding the right ones, back them when they win and avoid them when they lose I’ll have this betting lark cracked and my holiday home paid off in no time….

Good luck,
Gavin.

I’ll be down in deepest Devon this weekend on the lookout for our holiday home. We’ve not had a lot of luck so far with our carefully chosen properties as they’ve either been taken off the market, are already subject to an offer or didn’t look as good as they appeared on the rightmove website. The search continues…

Back to the racing and what looks like one of the best Saturday feasts for a long time. Ayr for the jump fans, including the Scottish National, and Newbury for the flat connoissuers with The Spring Cup and Guineas Trials. There’s also a good supporting card from Doncaster in the evening (yes, evening racing is already upon us for this year) and the likelihood of big fields at Bangor.

After an unlucky Wednesday when I’m So Lucky just got beat (having trading at long odds-on in running) I had a  good day yesterday, thanks to Diescentric, Equiano and Elusive Pimpernel. Which means I’ve still got money to have a punt with this weekend. Here are some of the horses I’ll be investing in….

Newbury Spring Cup (2.35pm)

Moynahan has been taken out of the race by Paul Cole leaving him with just Pravda Street in the race and me minus a ton. When I put my bet on he had Alan Munro booked to ride so I can only assume the horse is injured. Oh well, I’ll just have to hope his second string can keep up his amazing record in the race. I’ve had another £25ew at 33′s on him.

Dubai Duty Free (2.00pm)

He didn’t score too well on the trends but I’ve got to have a few pounds each-way on Manifest in this race. The horse was probably over-hyped last year, like a lot of Henry Cecil horses, but he looked the type to improve from three to four and hopefully he can show his true potential this season.

The Greenham (3.40pm)

At odds-on I probably won’t be backing Canford Cliffs but at evens or better I’ll be pulling my punting boots on.

Doncaster Mile (6.15pm)

The race was run on Lingfields AW track in 2006 and 2007 so we’ll leave out the stats from those years.

All of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
All of the last 12 winners had been off the track for 3 months or more
11 of the last 12 winners were 4 or 5yo’s
10 of the last 11 winners had raced 14 times or less
All of the last 7 winners had won at Class 3 or higher
11 of the last 12 winners were Irish or GB Bred
7 of the last 8 winners had won over a mile

Which all seems to point towards Cloudy Start being the winner

Ayr Scottish Champion Hurdle (2.45pm)

A few more stats…

• Every winner since 1997, bar last year, had run within the last 2 months

• Every winner since 1997 had won a race over 2 miles

• All of the last 11 winners carried 10-13 or less

• All of the last 9 winners were rated 133-146

• 12 of the last 13 winners had raced 16 times or less over hurdles

• 11 of the last 12 winners had finished in the top 2 of a class 3 or better handicap

• 11 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 6 last time out (9/13 top 3)

Which leaves us looking at 2008 winner Border Castle as the most likely winner.

SCOTTISH NATIONAL (3.20pm)

I did the trends guide for the Scottish National yesterday and came up with a choice of 2. One of those was Merigo which happens to be one of Matt’s tips and one of my brothers also. The last time we all agreed on a horse was in the 2009 Irish National with Niche Market.

We all know what happened then and we’re all hoping that history can repeat itself tomorrow.

Incidentally, I tipped Merigo in last years race and had him doubled up with Niche Market for a big 4 figure sum only for the trainer to scupper my plans by withdrawing him on the morning of the race. I hope history doesn’t repeat itself on that score….

If you want to know what my other choice was in the Scottish National plus get 3 races from Newbury, The Punchestown Festival next week, The Bet365 end of season jolly next Saturday and a whole host of meetings throughout May (including the Guineas, Dante and Chester) we’re offering all Trends Guide until the end of May for just £19.95….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Latest results…..2 winners from 4 selections at the Craven Meeting

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HORSE RACE PROFILES

David Peat has now released his meticulously researched Horse Race Profiles for the 2010 Flat Season.

This year he has also added a Trainer Profiles manual which you’ll get included in the deal.

At just £57 for BOTH the Trainer and Horse Profiles plus access to the Members Area with Daily runners profiles for the whole year it’s really excellent value for this flat Season. From just 5 runners so far he’s managed 7/2 and 8/1 winners with a placed at 18/1.

This is an excellent addition to anyone’s betting portfolio and contains a mine of carefully researched data.

You can buy it here…..http://www.horseprofiles.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=4&i=l0

If you’re not familiar with his work then there’s some FREE samples to download from his site along with 3 free systems.

Get them here….http://www.horseprofiles.co.uk/VIP%20Lounge.html

The freebies alone are well worth a visit to his site and they’ll only ‘cost’ you your email address (so he knows where to send the stuff.)

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Enjoy the weekend good weather and good luck,
Gavin.

Having taken advantage of Travelex’s buy back guarantee before I went to Vegas my dollars have been converted back to pounds at the same rate as I bought them at. And seeing as I managed to come back from Vegas with just about all my money it means I didn’t damage my betting bank-roll too much. Judging by the surliness of the bloke in the Heathrow Travelex foreign exchange booth I may have damaged his commission though. I guess they don’t have too many people take advantage of the buy-back offer to the tune of $4000.

Coupled with all the winners I backed last week my online betting accounts are also now bulging and I have a healthy punting war-chest to do battle with the bookies this week. I’ll give you a full account of how I get on next Monday but expect the following horses to feature heavily in the Post……

I told you on Monday that Paul Cole is the trainer to back in the Spring Cup and his Moynahan looked the one for me in this years race. I’ve been patiently waiting for the bookies to price up the race since then and finally on checking with Oddschecker.com this morning I saw William Hill were betting on the race. What I didn’t expect was Moynahan to be 33/1 so I quickly logged into my Hills account to have £50ew on him. His other runner Pravda Street is also 33/1 so I also had £20ew on that one too.

Unfortunately what I didn’t know, but should have checked out before placing my bets, is that they have reduced the field safety size to 18 and Mr Cole’s horses need 3 and 4 horses to drop out to get  run. Not impossible but rather annoying.

My brother sent me his write-up for Saturday’s Scottish National last night which I have now added to the new page . (Simply click on the tab at the top-left of this page entitled ‘Gary’s Tips’ to read his tips for the race). I suspect Merigo will probably end up being a trends fancy for the race so I had £25ew on him and had a cheeky tenner on his other fancy with Paddy Power. I’ve also done 4 x £2.50ew doubles with the two in the Spring Cup simply because I’m an eternal optimist. Although after I’ve won tonights triple rollover lottery jackpot it won’t matter too much.

Onto this afternoon….

In the 3.00 there’s a very strong buzz for the Sir Michael Stoute trained Longliner but he’s still a maiden and needs to have improved dramatically from 2-3yo to win this very tough race. Obviously coming from the Stoute stable that’s quite likely to happen but I prefer to side with John Gosden in these type of sales races and I’ll be backing High Twelve who looks sure to appreciate the step up in trp.

I had the first winner from my 10 to Follow list yesterday when Richard Fahey’s Albaqaa won at 9/4 and Henry Cecil’s Timepiece, who has been well supported for both the 1000 Guineas and the Oaks, will be the next one to run for the list when she goes this afternoon in the Fielden Stakes. If she is to justify this ante-post market confidence she’ll have to win this and I fully expect her to do so.

Timepiece will be my second bet for today.

Over to Cheltenham and I’ll be backing I’m So Lucky in the 3.55. It looks a classy affair but he has a low weight and the smaller field should suit him much better than the races he’s been running in lately. 11/1 looks too big.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. The Spring Madness Trends Offer continues.

 Every guide from today’s Newmarket Craven through to the Irish Guineas at the end of May for just £19.95. With the Newmarket Guineas, Sandown Bet365 meeting, Chester May meeting and the Punchestown Festival amongst them it really is our best deal ever!…..Sign up by clicking below….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

After a pretty weird week in which I spent half the time in a state of deep sleep and the other half feeling in need of a deep sleep it’s good to finally shake it off and get back to some kind of normality.

I think that’s my holiday’s out of the way for a bit (unless I can win a seat in the World Series of Poker, in which case I’ll be back off to Vegas) meaning I should now have a clear run through until the Summer. There’s a heck of a lot of racing coming up over the next couple of months with the jump season coming to an end and the flat season about to kick off proper so it’s going to be busy, busy, busy here at Nag3.

We’ll start it all off with 1 hero and 4 villains from last week……

1) Tony McCoy.

Much has been written about the greatest jump jockey in history so I’m not going to bore you with any more superlatives (mainly because I don’t think there are any left that haven’t been used before) but what I will say is that, surely he now deserves his place in the final 10 names for the Sports Personality of the Year. In fact if he doesn’t make the list it will be an absolute disgrace. I’d really love to see him crowned SPOTY but can he win it? Probably not. Although a win in the most famous race in the world has given him the national, if not global, recognition he deserves he’s still up against it because he would need England to flop in the World Cup, Murray not to win Wimbledon, David Haye to carry on being the most anonymous Heavyweight Champion the boxing world has seen and then expect BBC viewers to vote for someone from a ‘gambling sport’ on the basis of winning an event that took place 7 months previously.

I certainly don’t think 11/2 is that generous a price.

2) Prices…

On the subject of ungenerous prices, what a complete and utter farce the betting became in the last hour of the Grand National. Every one of the 40 horses in the race was shortened to scrooge like odds which meant the returned SP’s equated to a 155% over-round book. The winner Dont Push It went from 20/1 into 10/1 while Hello Bud 40′s into 20/1 and Beat The Boys 66/1-25/1. They are just three examples but every single runner was available at the same or bigger odds in the bookmakers early prices. 15 of the 40 horses traded at 20/1 or under and only 9 horses were 66/1 or higher with the outsiders of the field available at just 100/1. There is absolutely no justification for this disgusting practice and it’s simple exploitation of the once a year novice punter.

3) Claire Balding….

Long time readers will know how much I dislike the BBC racing team, with Willie Carson number 1 on my list (thankfully being a jumps race we were spared his inane cackling on Saturday), and after Saturday’s coverage Claire Balding takes another step downwards in my estimations. After embarrassing Liam Treadwell in last years post race interview by making him show the nation his unsightly gnashers you’d have thought she’d have been on her best behaviour and steered clear of any jockeys problems but the woman just can’t help herself and decided that Paul Carberry’s drinking problems were fair game. As someone with well documented problems with alcohol I’m sure he didn’t need reminding that he can’t celebrate with a drink or two but that didn’t stop the queen of insensitivity pointing it out to a squirming, embarrassed and shocked looking Paul Carberry.

I half expected her to track down Richard Johnson and point out how happy he must be that Ruby Walsh broke his arm.

4) Jim McGrath

As part of the BBC racing team he’s already on my dislike list but his race-calling at the Aintree Festival was a new low, even for him. In a race like the National there are going to be fallers and viewers like to know a) when there is one and b) who it was. Unfortunately if it’s Aussie Jim McGrath’s turn to do the commentating you won’t get to find out either. But even his Grand National commentary was a master class compared to his calling of the 4yo hurdle where he’d convinced himself either Barizan or Sanctuaire was going to win so didn’t bother with Orsippus on the far side despite him leading for nearly all of the run-in. Nice one Jim!

5) Andrew Thornton

Andrew Thorton didn’t cover himself in too much glory with his ride of Doctor David in the Red Rum Chase. The horse strolled around Aintree full of running and Mr Thornton must have been very happy with him as he turned into the home straight. A long look over his shoulder confirmed he was going better than anything around him and as he cruised past Oiseau De Nuit there was indeed no danger from anything behind. Nope, the danger was in fact in front of him, in the form of Chaninbar who was 15 lengths clear and galloping strongly to the line. Matt will probably argue that Doctor David is a horse that likes to be beaten and is a professional loser but I like my horses to be ridden with a chance of winning so at least their battling qualities can be put to the test. I’m sure compensation awaits sometime soon for this ‘unlucky’ horse.

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Gary’s Tips

The eagle-eyed amongst you will have noticed the new page on the blog entitled ‘Gary’s Tips’.

For those of you who have missed it, it’s to the left of the screen at the top of the black tabs. Click on this and you’ll be taken to a different page on the blog.

I’ve finally persuaded my brother to share his wealth of knowledge with you all and he informs me that his first feature will be a look at The Scottish National this weekend.

From then on I’ll leave it up to him to post whenever he fancies something but I won’t be able to notify you by email whenever he adds to the page so be sure to bookmark the page and check it regularly. Any tips for the day will be posted by noon. Good luck to him….

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The best trainer tip of the year….

Saturday sees the running of the Newbury Spring Cup which features the best trainer tip of the year. I told you last year that Paul Cole’s record in this race is nothing short of phenomenal and when he has a runner in this race you can simply back it blind. 

You may also recall that he had an entry in the race last year that didn’t make the cut. It may not have run at Newbury but he did show he would have gone close there by coming out a few days later and win as a very well backed 8/1 shot.

This year he has two entries Moynahan and Pravda Street with the former certain to make the line-up. I await the opening betting shows with relish….

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Spring Madness from Festival Trends

To celebrate last weeks amazing haul of winners including..25/1 Bluesea Cracker (advised at 33/1), 22/1 Always Waining (advised at 50/1) and 28/1 Big Time Billy I am pleased to offer all readers a Spring Madness Deal….

Just £19.95 for every meeting until May 31st.

That’s Newmarket’s Craven meeting, Ayr Scottish National, Chester May meeting, Sandown Bet365, Ascot, Newbury, Goodwood, The 1000 & 2000 Guineas, Haydock, Lingfield Derby Trial, York Dante meeting, Sandown evening, The Lockinge and finally the Irish 1000 & 2000 Guineas from the Curragh. Phew!

14 meetings and over 40 races for just £19.95.

Incredible value at less than £1.50 a Guide!!

Get it in time for Wednesday’s Craven Meeting ….. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

After the 25/1 winner of the Irish National it was always going to be tough to follow it up. Tough maybe but not impossible..

After a disappointing first day at Aintree things were looking a little bleak. But what a difference a day makes!

Friday saw our trends guide tip 22/1 winner Always Waining (advised at 50/1) along with three top rated winners at 9/2, 8/1 and 28/1. This has to go down as our best day ever at Festival Trends and our email inbox has since gone into meltdown.

Many thanks again for all the texts, comments, emails, phone calls and AOL instant messages we’ve received. We really do appreciate it.

The stage is now set for an exciting last day of the Aintree Festival. We’ve never been in form like this before and I’m really confident of rounding off the week with The Grand National winner.

If you want to know which 3 horses we’ll be cheering on tomorrow then for just £1.99 you can get the 17 page Grand National Trends Guide. Or £4.95 gets you all 7 races on the card including the National Guide….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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You probably don’t need reminding how good a tipster my brother is but in case you need more proof take a look at his latest comment on Matts blog where he tipped Always Waining at 100/1.

http://www.geegeez.co.uk/4525/killer-aintree-system/

(Scroll down the page towards the bottom.)

If you thought our trends guides were in good form then you should see the list of big priced winners he’s managed this last month or so. Why he’s not a millionaire I’ll never know (well, actually I do. 6 kids and a wife! Say no more)

I’m trying to persuade him to set up some kind of tipping blog / website but without much luck at the moment. I think he probably needs some kind of re-assuarance so if you’d fancy getting access to his fancies please leave a comment at the end of this post.

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Things have been a little weird for me since I got back home. I’ve never experienced jetlag like this before. My sleeping pattern is all over the place and I go from being wide awake to hardly able to keep my eyes open in a split second. Dylan seems to have adjusted far better than either the missus or I have and it’s been a real struggle to keep up with him. What with him bouncing around the house and me trying to keep up with the trends guides I feel like I need a holiday to recover. Next time I’m off for a peaceful week in the sun by a pool somewhere….

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My final 3 horses to make up my 10 to follow (actually 4 and 11)….

Midday and Sariska

It’s great news that Breeders Cup winner Midday has been kept in training as a 4yo along with her Epsom conqueror Sariska. These two should ensure the older fillies are well represented in the big races and I can’t wait to see them do battle again. With both set to take in the Coronation Cup over the course and distance of their epic Oaks dual it could well be the early season highlight.

ASKAR TAU

With no Yeats this year the staying crown is up for grabs. Askar Tau has a bit to find to get to the top of the long distance division but on good ground or better he’s pretty decent on his day. He should be able to grab at least one Cup race this year.

LAAHEB

He’s another horse I saw run at the backend of last season when he won at Newmarket from Prince Seigfried. He did nothing but improve throughout last season and made a successful progression from maiden company to handicaps to Listed class. He is entered for the Coronation Cup and while that sort of step up may be beyond him it does at least show the regard in which he is held by his trainer (the very shrewd Michael Jarvis).

I’ll be back in full flow from next week which incidentally coincides with the start of the flat season proper. Yes, it’s the Newmarket Craven meeting. Hooray!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Many thanks for all the text messages, phone calls, emails and comments following our amazing 25/1 trends winner of the Irish National. After tipping last years winner Niche Market at 33/1 as well, The Irish National is now officially my favourite race of the year. For those of you who didn’t download the FREE trends guide (why not? it was FREE), we made Bluesea Cracker our likeliest trends winner and he was also clear top rated.

Following on from a satisfactory Cheltenham and then our 3rd place in the Lincoln I think we’re really hitting form now and I can’t wait until Aintree.

I know a lot of you have got Bluesea Cracker doubled up with Saturday’s Grand National selections (including my brother!) so let’s hope they both run just as well.

I’m back in the country from midday Wednesday and will upload the first day’s Aintree guide from about 5pm. The Grand National guide is ready for download now.

The 21 race full Aintree Trends Guide (including the 17 page National Guide) is available now for just £9.95…..

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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Vegas

Two things have happened to me this week in Vegas that have surprised and amazed me…..

First up, I was asked for ID when purchasing a bottle of wine!

Now I may be a handsome chap who could pass for a few years younger than my true age of 42 but not even with the kindest lighting, the best Hollywood make-up and extreme digital photo re-touching could I ever pass for someone under the age of 35. I’ve been coming to Vegas for 10 years now and gambled, drunk and partied without ever being asked to prove I was over 21. Oooh I was steaming for hours (mainly because I didn’t have my passport on me and I had to back to the room to get it.)

This is one crazy country. Buy a gun at 16, no questions asked but try buying alcohol when you’re a 42 year old and it’s a definite no-no.

The other noteworhy thing that happened this week was quite an amazing coincidence.

On my way down in the lift to the casino on Sunday night I got chatting to an old couple. I started off by asking how their luck was and as they turned out to be Brits the conversation obviously turned to where we were from. It transpired that they come from Porthcawl which happens to be where the in-laws are from and where I had my betting shop. We chatted for a couple of minutes when the  gentleman mentioned a company in Porthcawl that he used to work for. I knew my late father-in-law worked for the same company and asked if he knew him. As it turned out, he not only knew him but  he was his golf partner for 5 years! When I told him his wife (my mother-in-law) was upstairs he nearly fainted. One tearful re-union followed.

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3 handicappers to follow in 2010

Having put up Raptor as one of the best handicapped horses in last years list and him going the whole season without a win I was all set to put him in again but unfortunately he ran and won at Yarmouth on Monday. Darn.

Emeebee (Form 41/733-)

He ran a fine third in a hot Newmarket handicap at the end of last season before running okay in an all weather race shortly afterwards. Off a rating of 74 I definitely think he could run up a sequence in handicaps (starting this Thursday at Leicester.)

 Slugger O’Toole (/00000-)

Last year he ran 5 times and the best he managed was 15th so you’re probably thinking (not for the first time) that I’ve gone completely mad in putting him up as a horse to follow. But those 5 runs were in some of the best, and hardest, handicaps run last season. The good news for connections is that his rating has plumetted to just 75 and if they lower his sights a little they should get their rewards with him. Coincidentally he’s also declared for the same Leicester race as Emeebee on Thursday.

 Albaqaa (Form 423-37)

Ran 7th in the mile Lincoln this year as a well fancied 6/1 shot but with his best form at 10 furlongs he as always going to struggle over that sort of trip. Richard Fahey knows what he’s doing and I think I know what he’s planning with this one. With his best form coming over 10 furlongs at York I’d be very surprised if they’re not laying this one out for a big handicap at the Dante meeting in May.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Don’t forget your Aintree trends…. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

I may be miles away in the lovely warm American sunshine but thanks to the wonders of modern technology I’m still able to keep abreast of the goings on in the racing world and upload my posts as if I was still in Cardiff. I’m sitting in my room, drinking budweiser with a fantastic view of the Las Vegas Strip……There’s a lot to be said for working abroad!

I did notice that Diktalina got beat again at Fontwell so it’s probably a good job I’m 8,000 miles away from a real bookmaker.

What I thought I’d do for the next couple of days is give you my 10 horses to follow for this Flat season. It didn’t go too badly last year with 6 of the 10 winning at least once and all 10 showing a level stakes profit of about 12pts.

The first four are my Classic hopes….

Timepeice (Form 211-)

A Henry Cecil 3yo filly who got beaten as favourite on her debut but then won at Lingfield on the All Weather and followed up in a Listed race back at Newmarket. I was at Newmarket that day and was really impressed with the way she stuck on in the final furlong to beat Nurture. With 4 1/2 lengths back to the third, in what looked a decent race, she must be very near the top of the female pecking order at Warren Place . Not surprisingly, she’s been well supported in the last couple of days for the Oaks.

Beyond Desire (Form 124-)

She won first time up at Goodwood in a race that hasn’t really worked out but then ran a fine second to Lady of The Desert in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York. Her next run looked a formality in a Group 3 up at Ayr but that meeting was plagued by dodgy results thanks to a very bad draw bias and although she won the race on the ‘unfavoured’ side she couldn’t do anything about the first three home. If anyone is in any doubt about the draw bias for that race they need look no further than the result of the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes run later in the season at Newmarket. In the Ayr race Music Show was the 5/1 second favourite, was drawn on the wrong side and finished 10th. She won the Rockfel at 25/1 beating the Ayr 1st and 3rd by over 8 lengths. A reversal in form of over 20 lengths.

Beyond Desire is my idea of an extremely good bet for the 1000 Guineas at 40/1.

St Nicholas Abbey (Form 111-)

Not very original but the way he won the Racing Post mile stamped him as a very exciting 2yo. Aiden O’Brien’s charge won by over 3 lengths from the previously unbeaten and highly regarded John Dunlop horse Ellusive Pimpernel. With another 2 and a bit lengths back to the third Al Zir (who was another unbeaten and highly regarded runner) from the Saeed Bin Suroor yard the form is rock solid. The Epsom Derby beckons.

Which leaves the 2000 Guineas…

Canford Cliffs (Form 113-)

The way in which he won the Coventry at Royal Ascot is still etched clearly in my mind and on that running he surely can’t be out of the first two in the 2000 Guineas. He slammed Xtension (3rd in the Dewhurt) by 6 lengths that day with a fine front running performance and never looked in trouble at any stage of the race. He then went to France for a Group 1 but got turned over at 4/9 in a small field by Arcano and Special Duty but there wasn’t really anything between the first three home. I’d expect a return to the front running tactics that worked so well at Ascot for the Guineas in May.

I’ve got 4 handicappers for my list tomorrow….

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Before I left I for Vegas I forgot to leave a link for the Irish Grand National trends guide.

You may remember that last year we had the 33/1 winner Niche Market which, although it may be a tough act to follow, hasn’t stopped me trying. I actually put together a trends beginners guide for another site and the Irish National is at the back. So, for anyone who’s still not too sure about ‘trends’ betting you may find something of interest in the guide otherwise just skip to the last few pages for The Irish National stats.

It’s 100% FREE and as always it’s a direct link with no sign-up necessary or any card details required……

Race Trends Revealed + Irish Grand National

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That’s the Irish Version and for anyone who wants the trends for THE Grand National my Festival Trends Guide for the race is also now available. It’s 17 pages long, has loads of information in it and is just £1.99

The 21 Race Aintree meeting guide will be ready from next week but for anyone wishing to pre-order it you’ll get the National guide included right now.

Sign in to your Members Account at http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

or for new customers at http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

Bye for now as I’m off back onto the poker tables where I’m currently two winning sessions from two. It can’t possibly continue….

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Remember to download your FREE Irish National Guide at>>>> Race Trends Revealed