I’d made it to Day 3 slighlty ahead but with the prospect of 4 big handicaps to solve on the Thursday I wasn’t too confident of it staying that way…

The first race of the day was the Jewson Handicap Chase and incidentally there is a really good trend for both this race and the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle that you should write down now for next year. It’s probably the best trend of the whole meeting!

Both of these races are for novices, both are handicaps and also both have now been running for 6 years. It may interest you to know that all 6 winners of both races (12 in total) hadn’t won over their respective obstacles until at least their 3rd run. That is to say, every winner of the Jewson and Fred Winter had a slow start to their new careers but were now improving  just at the right time with lenient handicap marks.

Copper Bleu won his first chase on his 3rd run and Sanctuaire won over hurdles at the third time of trying. An excellent trend that gets rid of quite a few runners.

So having applied that trend and a few others I had the race between Kings Forest and Othermix. I slightly favoured the former and had £25ew at 20’s and balanced my book with a tenner each way at 50’s on the latter. Othermix ran a cracker to reward my each way bet and give me a good start to the day. According to the Racing Post an intrepid punter had £600 ew at 100’s on him. OOOhhh close, I bet his heart was racing coming down to the last!

Next up was the Pertemps Final and my two against the field were Prince Eric and Fredo so I had £25ew on both at 16’s and 20’s. Getting carried away in the moment I also backed Smoking Aces (£20 just in case) and Maucaillou (£20 ew). I also did a combination forecast / tricast and by the time Prince Erik had run second I’d realised how foolish it is to back 4 horses in one race and paid the price for my indesicion. Did I mention that I think the desicion to run Smoking Aces here instead of the Coral Cup was a bad one? Probably.

The Ryanair. I had a strong fancy for Tranquil Sea and waded in with £80 at 11/2 but it seems I was the only one who did as he spent the morning drifting in the betting and this carried on sliding out in the run up to the race.  This forced me to have a rethink so I had a £40 saver on Poquelin. I can’t tell you how many times we’ve made Alberta’s Run the trends pick for our guides. Every race he ran in last year he seemed to have a perfect trends profile. I can’t tell you how happy I was to see him win this race at 14/1 having not tipped him, having not backed him and having backed the runner-up. Grrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

The World Hurdle and the banker of the meeting, Big Bucks. So naturally I backed two each way against him. £10ew on Cape Tribulation and £20ew Sentry Duty. The banker won like a good thing, my two ran like something rhyming with bankers and I’d done my money again. I think I’m gonna have to start backing at odds-on. I mean, 5/6 was an amazing price.

And so on to my favourite race of the meeting, The Festival Plate. Having had a good win in the race last year I was very hopeful of  following up this year with Jayo. Like quite a few of Willie Mullins’s horses last week he never really got into it and my £50ew wager was beaten some way out. My £20ew on I’m So Lucky proved to be anything but. I think I’ll have to start betting horses with names that are more appropriate, Second Again, Never In The Hunt or Fifthpayfirstfour. The Festival Plate is no longer my favourite race of the Festival, I like the RSA Chase.

Things were now looking bleak and what you don’t want for the get-out-stakes is a 24 runner, 3 mile chase for Amateur riders. But needs must and a quick £20 on Ballybriggs, £20 Shillinstone and £10ew Ma Yahab with a combination forecast/tricast nearly saved the day.

A loss on the day, put me only just behind on the week but it was looking a lot worse 10 minutes before those wonderful Amateur riders did their stuff. I reckon every meeting should have a 24 runner, 3 Mile chase for Amateur Riders as the last race of the day.

Friday, Gold Cup Day, the Big Match, Kauto vs Denman. Bring it on! I packed my laptop and my Kauto scarf into my rucksack and caught the train to London for a weekend of punting with my best buddy Matt. A couple of hours later and I was already $33 down. I foolishly decided to wile away the time on the train by playing a quick game of poker. With tunnels, fields, banks and other such obstacles blocking my internet signal it wasn’t one of my best ideas. Sitting there with pocket aces with an allin before you and being disconnected is in poker terms, definitely negative EV. (For the non poker players, I had a good hand but a bad signal and lost my money).

I arrived into Paddington at lunchtime and after a quick tube journey and a short walk I was in the Brown Bear drinking the first Budweiser of the day. Catching up with the guys, drinking and punting. Does it get better than that? Well yes, catching up with the guys, drinking and winning would have been nice.

The Triumph Hurdle just about set the tone fo the day after Westlin Winds ran an absolute shocker. My £50ew antepost bet at 22/1 went the same way as my £40 saver on Advisor, down the pan. Joining those slips was my £80 on Oldrik in the Coral Cup although a £10ew on Dee Ee Williams eased the pain a little. Things were bad but they were about to get even worse when Tell Massini and my £100 went down that same pan. Matt and I had £40ew on Najaf and rather embarrassingly spent the majority of the last mile shouting ‘come on Ruby’ unaware that he wasn’t riding Paul Nicholls horse, he was on Quel Esprit. If we had left it a little longer it would have been apparent that it was indeed Timmy Murphy and not Ruby onboard as after looking like the winner coming down to the last he did his usual impression of a ‘big girls blouse’ and was outridden, outstayed and out-fought. Time for another Budweiser. Geez, I thought Cardiff was an expensive place to drink but these Londoners really know how to maximise their profit margins!

The Gold Cup, The Big One, The Big Fight, Denman vs Kauto. Horse racing is not boxing, it’s ’s never just a two horse battle unless there are only 2 horses in the race. Matt and I decided on Tricky Trickster each way and joined Ladbrokes on-odds club to get the enhanced price on him. I’ve now signed up to a daily bombardment of emails from the Magic Sign just to get better odds on a horse that, as far as I know, is still running.

Another round of drinks, I need a winner or I’m going to have to remortgage the house, and it was onto the Foxhunters. £2oew on Gentle George ,who of course finished fourth, and £10ew Sericina, who fell, left me scrambling for the number for Ocean Finance.

More budweiser, more banter, more betting. I’d even resorted to backing the greyhounds by name. First, Jerry and I backed some dog with Jerry in the name (it won), then we backed one with Tom (Tom and Jerry!) in it’s name (that also won) but by the time we backed an Edna (Jerry’s wifes aunt’s goldfish or something) our winning streak had come to an end. Back to the horses….

The Martin Pipe Hurdle. It seems that the world and his wife were thinking along the same lines as me with Ashkazar and 9/2 didn’t look that good a price in the end. Obviously that didn’t stop me having £40 on him but I did have £20ew on Clova Island to save the race, if not the day. Ashkazar will win before the end of the season.

And so after 25 races this was it, the final race of the Cheltenham Festival, The Grand Annual. A week previously I had been very confident of one horse making my Cheltenham. His name was Shoreacres but having been backed in from 25’s to 12’s the trainer, for reasons I haven’t been able to find out, took him out of the race. Back to the drawing board. Having redone the race I came up with a shortlist of 4 including the horse my brother had been banging on about for some time, Pigeon Island, but what does he know? After an afternoon on the Budweiser my already poor vision had definitely clouded further and my £5oew on Safari Journey was just a desparate attempt to rescue the meeting. He ran okay but not good enough to make the frame. He’s another who looks sure to appreciate Aintree but if you take any horse from the race for the Liverpool meeting it has to be 5th horse home Tartak. I’ll be away when the declarations are made but make sure you back this one for the Red Rum Chase when the betting is put up.

And then it was all over. A poor Friday meant I had lost money this week and the amount I’d drunk meant I’d be suffering the next day but there’s always hope. My salvation would lie with a Full English, a bag of starburst (best hangover cure ever) and Tranquil Tiger in the Winter Derby. Then it’s Las Vegas and back home for Aintree…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

Having built up a healthy warchest of punting cash through some inspired poker playing and with a little left over from Mamlook’s win in January I was all set to take on the bookies. Bring it on!

Things didn’t get off to the best of starts when my each way Ante-Post Lucky 15 had 3 non-runners out of the 4 selections. At least Betfred was paying non-runner/no bet at the time I placed my wager and I was able to reclaim 7/15ths of my money back.

Tuesday

The last time I was this excited about Get Me Out Of Here was way back in the Winter when I used to avidly tune in to ITV to watch the jungle antics of some minor z-list celebrities. Great entertainment but not really a punting opportunity as I think I proved with my run down of said celebs last year. Having wagered £100ew with Betfred (money back if he loses) and £100ew with Paddy Power (money back if Dunguib won) on Get Me Out OF Here, my new favourite horse, I was ready for a flying start to the meeting. Unfortunately, Tony McCoy decided to make his flying start to the meeting a couple of yards too late and was denied by the narrowest of margins. I know the racecourse management kept everyone in the dark until very late about having moved the final flight 70 yards nearer the finishing line but you’d have thought someone would have told AP.

Still, Paddy and Fred gave me my place money so I didn’t lose anything on the race and Fred even gave me a free £100 bet to compensate slightly for Tony’s cockup. 1 race down, I backed the second and I’m actually technically infront.

Onto the Arkle. It didn’t take long for my big ante-post hope Captain Cee Bee to prove the age statisticians correct and show you can’t win the Arkle as a 9yo as he broke a blood vessel and laboured home in 8th. My two £40 savers in the race ran wildly different races but ultimately gave the same result i.e. I did my money. Riverside Theatre got him self detached from the field and then ran on like Usain Bolt to get up for 5th and then Timmy Murphy decided he’d also delay making his flying start to the meeting and ride Somersby for second place. Mission accomplished Timmy.

Having had Gary bend my ear all morning with talk of Chief Dan George I’ve only myself to blame for not having a cheeky score on him but I was really confident that The Package would win the William Hill Trophy and invested my Betfred free £100 bet on him and stuck another ton on top out of my own war chest. It was really nice to see Timmy Murphy actually riding a horse from some way out but he’s not the real McCoy and he had to settle for second, again. He tried his best but sometimes (especially with Timmy Murphy) it’s still not enough. I can’t tell you how happy I was for my kid brother as he quickly instant messaged me to gloat in the warmth of his big priced winner.

‘Did you back it’ he asked?
‘No I &($£*”@# didn’t’ I replied.

The big one, The Champion Hurdle but one of my smallest bets of the entire meeting. I was really confident that the winner would come from either Binocular, Medermit, Punjabi or Solwhit but having backed the latter ante-post and what with his less than ideal preparation I decided my small saver would be on one of the other three. Medermit had a bit to find and Alan King hadn’t really set the world alight this season so I dismissed him and then ruled out Binocular on the basis that he too had had a less than ideal preparation. So it was £20 on Punjabi and time to tear my hair out as Tony McCoy remembered the last flight had been moved and made his challenge well before the last. I guess that’s why he’s the Champ.

3m7f, 32 fences, round bends, up banks, through hedges, up Cheltenham High Street and back up the home straight, a field of 16 OAP horses and most of the big named jockeys giving the race a big swerve. It’s a recipe for punting disaster. I mean nobody could really fancy anything strongly in this race, could they?

I had Garde Champetre for the race and £40 at 9/4 looked about as much as I wanted to lay out on this race, I mean you’d have to be mad to really fancy anything in this race, wouldn’t you? It was also time to pick up Dylan from school so I set the sky+ to record and off I went. Sitting in the park, basking in the Spring sun, birds singing, watching my son and his mates run riot, ah….. all was well with the world.

Incoming text message…’I really, really fancied A New Story, had a great bet on it and doubled it up with Chief Dan George. Did you back it?’
‘No I @#&*%$ didn’t, now &%*$ off and stop gloating!’ I replied

Having watched the race back I think maybe only Sizing Europe could be called unlucky.

And so to the last race of the day. With doubts about the fitness of the front two in the betting I decided in our Trends Guide to try and find a bit of each way value. The one that looked most like the previous winners was Caroles Legacy so I went with her and had £25ew at 25’s. Another 2nd but I think that was probably the best I could have hoped for and it did mean I ended the first day only slightly behind.

Wednesday

4 miles of Cheltenham fences with amateur riders! Even Gary would struggle to really fancy anything in this race. Having done the trends and read the trainers comments about their respective horses I was pretty confident that I had a horse who would give us all a run for our money. Donald McCain was not worried about the 4 miles as Fabalu would definitely stay and £25ew at 20’s was my bet. Well, we got a run for our money and Fabalu did stay. Unfortunately it was for 3m 6f and he weakened to finish 6th. They say Trainers and Jockeys make the worst tipsters. I’d say they were right. (Though probably a few of you would add blog writers to that list)

Having fancied Peddlers Cross at a big price for the Supreme Novices it of course ran in the NIM Hurdle and of course wasn’t 25/1. But 7/1 was good enough for me and on went £60. My £40 Quel Esprit dutching bet hit the floor after only 2 hurdles. I’m not too keen on the dutch. I think I’m going to start welshing on my bets instead. Donald McCain said Peddlers Cross would stay. It’s nice to see some trainers make good tipsters sometimes (and a certain blog writer).

Onto the RSA Chase and as it turned out, my best tip of the meeting. £40ew Weapons Amnesty. He jumped as good as I’ve ever seen a novice jump at Cheltenham and Davey Russell gave him a great ride. My brother had backed Burton Port at a big price ante-post but in all the excitement of backing two winners on the trot I forgot to ask him ‘Did you do the forecast, Gary?’. I think I can probably guess his reply.

I had£2oew on Big Zeb at 14’s ante-post but fearing another second I had £40 forecast Master Minded to beat him and a £40 forecast MM to beat Forpadydeplasterer. But I was on a roll and seconds weren’t on the agenda that day. Barry Geraghty gave Big Zeb a peach of a ride and he coaxed this dodgy jumper around the course before pouncing coming down to the last. Brilliant. I can’t remember the last time I backed three winners in a row.

And then it all went horribly wrong…firstly Smoking Aces was not running in the Coral Cup. No the trainer in his infinite wisdom decided to run the 2 1/2 mile specialist in the 3 mile Pertemps Final and not here. My £40ew at 25’s was returned but I see it more as a £1200 loss. Trainers really don’t know what they’re doing sometimes.

Then having written in my trends guide ‘  Undoubtedly the one to keep an eye on was Nicky Henderson’s Spirit River whose finishing position of 17 tells none of the story. Stalking the leaders for some way he came through to make his challenge 3 flights out with Barry Geraghty sitting motionless only for the horse to make a complete mess of the next hurdle and ruin all chance of victory. He was allowed to come home in his own time after the blunder and this run is best forgotten. Having taken a handicap over the County Hurdle course and distance in December he is a major player for the Festival.’  I of course didn’t back him as I had written that for the 2mile County Hurdle. Trainers really do know what they’re doing sometimes!

So instead of having the horse that would have won or backing the horse that did win I lost £60 on Deutschland and a sentimental £20 ew on Mamlook. I wonder what it feels like to back 4 winners in a row at Cheltenham?

From then on it was downhill all the way as Diktalina (£50ew) ran like a pig, Fin Vin De Leu (£20ew) ran like a donkey and Drumbaloo (£40 at 14’s) ran like a crab. I managed another second with my £30 saver in the Fred Winter, Notus De La Tour, and a fourth in the Bumper when I had £30ew Tavern Times at 10/1.

I gave back a large chunk of my winnings at the end but after two days I was now in front. If only the Cheltenham executives had cut the meeting to 2 days instead of increasing it to 4. Ah well, easy come easy go.

I’ll be back tomorrow to tell you all about the ‘easy go’ part…..

——–

The Lincoln.

I’ve done a Trends Guide for the race which you can get for FREE from the link below….

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/freebie/lincoln2010.pdf

(There are no sign-ups or payment details required. This is a direct link to the guide)

The trends aren’t particularly brilliant for the race and quite a few horses seem to have the ideal look about them but recent runnings of the race have seen a new type of winner emerge and I’d be hopeful that the winner will come from a shortlist of three.

———

Family hols…

I’m off to Vegas on Monday for the annual family vacation but hope to post a couple of times while I’m out there. Having booked with British Airways and spending the last 3 weeks unsure of whether we were actually going to fly or not I’m in need of a holiday. I’ll try not to bore you too much with hot weather reports, shows, fine dining and luckless gambling while I’m out there.

I’ll be back in time for Aintree but will miss the Easter weekend racing. I’ll see if I can get Gary to take over for a couple of days and give you a big priced winner of a sprint handicap somewhere.

Good luck,
Gavin.

The Vanessa Feltz ‘Too Many Seconds Award’ goes to….
Me! Judging by the comments and emails I’ve received this will probably be hotly debated and I know Matt will have something to say about it but I backed Get Me Out Of Here, Somersby, The Package, L’Ami, Caroles Legacy, Forpadydeplasterer, Notus De La Tour, Othermix, Prince Eric, Poquelin and Najaf. Plus two 3rds and a 4th. Can anyone beat that?

The Anfield Kop ‘You’re Not Singing Anymore Award’ goes to…..
All those people who bought Denman or Kauto Star scarves ready to wave them as their hero storms up the run-in. Ooops! Was there a money back guarantee if neither of them won?

Pricewise ‘Top Tipping Award’ goes to…..
My brother Gary for his incredible 33/1 (Chief Dan George) and 25/1 (A New Story) double posted on Matt’s site.

The Sheikh Mohammed ‘Get Your Cheque Books Out Award’ goes to…..
Cue Card who went from Fontwell class 6 NH flat race winner to the most exciting prospect in NH racing after demolishing the field in the bumper. I doubt Sheikh Mohammed will be interested but I bet JP McManus, Graham Wylie or Sir Robert Ogden have already made their offers known. Do I hear £250,000 anyone?….

The tumbleweed ‘Hear A Pin Drop Award’ goes to……
Cue Card storming up the run-in to the sound of moans, groans and betting slips being ripped up. Rails bookmaker John Hughes claimed in Monday’s Racing Post that it is the first time he has ever bet at the Festival and not laid a single bet on the winner of a race! Oh to be a bookie again.

The Corleone ‘Family Clan Award’ goes to…..
the Walsh’s of course. First there was Ruby riding the horses, Ted training the odd runner and then acting as the Irish expert for Channel 4 and now we have sister Katie to look out for as well. She only had two rides at the Festival but she managed to win on them both which, given the competitive nature of the meeting, is nothing short of amazing. Oh and mum Helen also got her 10 minutes of fame with plenty of exposure and interviews with the CH4 team. All together now aaaaahhhh.

The Incredible Hulk ‘Green With Envy Award’ goes to….
all us punters who had to listen to bookmakers gloating that it was their best ever Cheltenham. Don’t worry folks, he who laughs last, laughs loudest! We’ll get our own back in the National, The Guineas, The Derby, Royal Ascot and every other meeting this year and bring the bookies to their knees. hahaHA

Barclaycard man going down the water chute ‘Greatest Advertising Of The Week Award’ goes to…
Paddy Power for their enormous erection on the hill looking over Cheltenham racecourse. It didn’t go down too well with the authorities but you couldn’t miss their 50 foot high sign and the amount of press coverage they received made whatever they paid to put it there worth every penny.

The Carry On style jokes ‘Worst Innuendo Award’ goes to…
The last award category.

The Tri-Annual Log Flume at Blackpool Pleasure Beach ‘Worst Ride Award’ goes to….
plenty to choose from including the great AP McCoy for his ride on Get Me Out Of Here but for me it has to be 3lb claimer AP Crawley for his ride on Maucaillou in the Pertemps Final. You’d think that with 3 miles to travel he’d have had time to get the horse into a challenging position but Mr Crawley decided that he’d wait until 2m 7f had been run before getting busy and trying to win the race. The horse has plenty of ability but he hasn’t won for over 2 1/2 years and I reckon a change of jockey is desperately needed.

George Clooney Best Actor Oscar ‘Deserved to Win but didn’t Award’ goes to….
Barizan in the Triumph Hurdle. He hadn’t run since last November but was backed from 40’s into 14/1 so it seemed connections were hopeful of a good run and that’s exactly what they got. Leading from the start he was soon well clear and for much of the way was upwards of 20 lengths in front. With 2 hurdles left to jump he was still 15 lengths clear but as he started to tire a bit his jumping let him down and he crashed through both of the last two flights. He still had a 5 length advantage at the last but the hill found him out and he succumbed in the final 100 yards. A really brave attempt from both horse and jockey that deserved to win the race.

The Gavin and Stacey final episodes ‘Biggest Disappointment Award’ goes to…..
Tell Massini. I wasn’t alone in making this one my bet of the meeting as everything looked in place for a big run. I’m not sure what happened to him but this cannot have been his true running as he had form with both the 1st and 3rd home that would have placed him in the shake-up. It really was too bad to be true.

The Millenium Dome ‘Bad Decision Award’ goes to….
both the Cheltenham racecourse executives and Tom Taffe. Firstly, the Cheltenham powers-that-be for deciding to move the final hurdle 70 yards nearer the finishing line in an effort to cut the number of jockeys getting a whip ban. It almost certainly stopped the best horse in the Supreme Novices Hurdle (Get Me Out Of Here not Dunguib) from winning the race but ironically, the winning jockey Richard Johnson got a 4 day ban anyway. Great work chaps! Tom Taffe gets his share of the Trophy for deciding to run Smoking Aces in the Pertemps Final and not the Coral Cup. A strange choice of target given the horse had never won beyond 2m4f and had never shown anything to suggest that 3 miles would be his ideal trip. He was really well handicapped and in the form of his life but those extra 3f were too much for the horse. The £1050 he won for 6th place in The Pertemps was a mere fraction of what he would have won for a top 2 finish in the Coral Cup.

The Monty Python ‘Ministry of Silly Bets Award’ goes to…
It could have been me for my ante-post Lucky 15 that nominated 3 non runners or it could go to Matt for his multiple bet that had just one winner (unfortunately it wasn’t the race at Cheltenham he nominated. In fact it didn’t even win at Cheltenham!)  but I’ll give it to the William Hill telephone punter who staked a whopping £16000 on 10pew accumulators. 80,000 accumulators! He must have been on the phone for hours.

Mind you, he did have the last laugh when he copped £450,000. It would have been over a million if Mon Mome hadn’t collared Carruthers on the line for third place in the Gold Cup.

The Saga ‘OAP Award’ goes to….
Mister McGoldrick who despite being a 13yo zipped round Prestbury Park giving a fine display of jumping and front running and only gave best jumping the last. A very decent 4th place finish meant he’s not been out of the top 4 in any of his last 7 chase starts which have all been at class 2 or higher. If Cheltenham are thinking of staging another race, which I think they are, then I suggest a veterans chase. Imagine 20 of your old favourites running in the same race, brilliant! Kauto Star would even qualify for it next year.

Runner up for this award is A New Story who actually won as an 12yo but as it’s only a rubbish race with silly obstacles it doesn’t really count (though I’m sure Gary would disagree). 

And finally, the ‘one to keep an eye on next time out Award’ goes to….

Shanrod. Despite mixing it with the best 4yo novice hurdlers in Ireland and carrying just 10-13 he was sent off at 50/1 but he ran a race much better than his 13th place would have you believe. He went from way back to chasing the leaders in a matter of strides and was making good headway when a bad mistake stopped him in his tracks. I doubt he’s up to taking on the top hurdlers at level weights but he looks well rated to take a handicap.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Firstly, thanks for all the comments, good and bad (yes really), regarding last weeks Cheltenham Trends.

A few points….

I think that most people will agree that last week’s Cheltenham Festival was one of the hardest meetings, for punters, for a very long time. Just 3 favourites, an average SP of over 14/1 and bookmakers reporting their most profitable Festival ever all made for a difficult time.

A poor Friday probably did for us here at Festival Trends but we also had more than our fair share of runners-up with 4 out of 6 on the Tuesday and the first 3 on Thursday amongst others. At odds of 9/2, 4/1, 9/2, 20/1, 11/4, 16/1 and 50/1 for those second places it certainly wouldn’t have needed much to have made it a great week.

Not that it was anywhere near a disaster though as we did manage 5 winners (Peddlers Cross, Weapons Amnesty, Big Bucks, Ballybriggs and Big Zeb) at odds of 7/1, 10/1, 10/1, 5/6 and 9/1 and for any subscribers looking further than just the selections and applying the stats themselves they would have found Chief Dan George (33/1), Binocular (8/1), Sanctuaire (4/1), Pigeon Island (16/1), Poker De Sivola (14/1) all had very strong trends and would have made anyone’s shortlist.

In many races we did manage to get it down to a shortist of 3, 4 or 5 horses but then went in the wrong direction when attempting to choose the ‘likeliest trends winner’. No race emphasised this problem more or gave me more trouble last week than the Champion Hurdle. I got it down to a very confident list of 4 runners Binocular, Medermit, Solwhit and Punjabi but went with the wrong one. You could have made a very strong case for any of the four and I’m still kicking myself now for not getting it right.

As for Gary, I am fully aware that my brother is a damn fine tipster and when it comes to good old fashioned form study he is way, way better than me. His record of backing big priced winners would put even Pricewise to shame BUT when you regularly target outsiders you have to expect quite a few losers too.

And that’s where the problem lies, I would be more than willing to take a back seat when it comes to tipping on the blog and hand it all over to him on a regular basis but I’m not sure he’d want the aggro when things aren’t going so well. Tipping two 33/1 winners and 20 losers doesn’t go down too well with some people and if you get 15 of those losers in a row then things usually turn nasty.

Also, as soon as I start putting up selections that differ from those contained in my trends guides I get ’sackfuls’ of emails complaining that I’m tipping different horses. It seems it’s okay for the Racing Post to have 10 different tipsters selecting 10 different horses in a race using 10 different methods but as soon as I offer an alternative choice I get slated.

Last week at Cheltenham I was obviously aware of Gary’s fancies but can’t just make them the trends selections because he strongly fancies something. The Trends Guides try to determine the winner by identifying the horse that most resembles previous winners of the race and for me to try and manipulate them to fit a certain horse would be ridiculous, not to mention deceitful.

Which brings me to my final points. These guides are based on trends not personal fancies. I collate the information, write it down and then work out a selection using all the information included over the 8 pages. Everything is there for subscribers to see, all the data I use and all my workings out. I’m not randomly selecting a runner and simply telling you to back it! For every tip I explain exactly why I have chosen it and if you’re not happy with the final choice or don’t agree with it then don’t back it! There’s plenty of information contained in my guides to enable you to make your own decision.

I use trends for the vast majority of my betting but I don’t back every horse in my trends guide because sometimes the final selection may be the ‘likeliest trends winner’ but isn’t MY idea of the ‘likeliest race winner’!

For some races the trends are strong and one horse stands out as having a typical profile while for other races it’s difficult to find any horse that fits the criteria and in some races you can get it down to a shortlist of 3 or 4 then have to use less than reliable trends to get it down to 1 (or 2) horses. If a meeting consists of 26 races then you’re going to get a variety of these types of scenario with some good and bad choices.

AND sometimes even when you get a horse that looks the perfect trends type they still don’t win! (Tell Massini for example). That’s horseracing, it’s not an exact science and as there are so many variables to consider, it never will be. You could argue that a decision by the course executives to move the final flight (more of that tomorrow) 70 yards nearer the finish line cost Get Me Out Of Here the Supreme Novices Hurdle. You apply the trends, you find the perfect horse, you get one of the hottest favourites of the meeting well beaten and you still don’t get the winner because of something completely unconsidered. If the run-in had been another 2 yards longer, let alone 70, McCoy would have got up.

Cheltenham may be the most important jumps meeting of the year but that doesn’t mean we are guaranteed to pick winners. I gave it my best shot, showed everyone why I fancied each and every horse I chose and got a mixed bag of results. Some winners, some losers and some ‘nearly’s’. If any of Othermix, Prince Eric or Caroles Legacy had won it would of course have been a different story…

It really is a fine line between success and failure!

I’ll dust myself off and move on to Aintree before getting ready for the flat. We’ve learnt some valuable lessons this week and as Cheltenham is just the first of many great meetings this year, I’m sure we’ll be back amongst the winners shortly.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. For non trends subscribers, sorry for today’s post. I’ll be back tomorrow with a look back at the Cheltenham meeting and then on Thursday I’ll give you a blow by blow account of how I did my money last week.

I’m writing this post on the way across to London to meet Matt. We’re putting our heads together for an afternoon of punting and drinking. I can guarantee that at least one of the two will go to plan!

We’re then off, hangovers permitting, to Lingfield tomorrow for the Winter Derby. If Tranquil Tiger doesn’t win this then it’ll be a long train journey home…..

As for today, it’s no secret that I really fancy Westlin Winds in the Triumph and it seems that quite a few other people do too as his price has shortened to around 10/1 now. Having got a lumpy bet on at 22/1 and 20/1 it’s time to hedge my bets with a saver on Advisor. Fingers crossed for the 1.30.

I’ll also be backing Cheshire Prince in the 4.55 Fakenham as I’m sure he’ll find this a bit easier than the Imperial Cup last Saturday where he finished 5th (of course he did ‘cos I backed him each way!).

If all else fails I’ll be getting out with Safari Journey in the last at Cheltenham.

———

I don’t know how many of you noticed my brother’s comments on Matt’s blog the other day but it has got to go down as one of the best pieces of tipping ever. In case you didn’t see it, he wrote….

‘As for Tuesday its good racing to watch but few betting opportunities for me. Chief Dan George in the William Hill and my best bet of day is A New Story at 40/1 in your fav race the cross country.’

Which is pretty typical of him. Not many betting opportunities but still manages to bag winners at 40/1 and 33/1!

He hasn’t shut up about it since but I have to take my hat off to him. He was really confident about A New Story I just wished I’d listened to him!

I know he had a decent bet up including a double on the two and he’s already spent it on a state-of-the-art hot tub for his back garden. I’m looking forward to testing that out this summer.

For anyone who wants to follow him today he recommends My Will at 33/1 without Kauto and Denman in the Gold Cup and Gloucester at 66/1 in the County Hurdle. Good luck!

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Midlands National (Saturday 3.15 Uttoxeter)

This is usually a good race for the trends so let’s have a look….

There hasn’t been a winner aged 10 or older since 1995…
which reduces the field to 11

There hasn’t been a winner who carried 11 stone or more since 1999….
we’re now down to 8

8 of the last 9 winners that completed the course last time out finished in the top 3….
only 4 now remain

8 of the last 10 winners had won a race over 3m2f or further…
Giles Cross and Ballydub haven’t

2 left but

1) in the last 10 years the Irish have a record of 4 wins, 4 places from just 19 runners.
2) 4 of the last 5 winners won last time out
3) Henry Daly has a 0-0-5 record in the last decade

Therefore I will overlook Sherwoods Folly to side with…..

INOMA JAMES

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And finally, as you probably all know I spend the winter months selling calendars for the Calendar Club in Cardiff. They are a national chain with nearly 300 outlets throughout the country and the best company I have ever worked for (admittedly there haven’t been that many!)

Anyhow, I received a phone call from them yesterday to tell me that I had won the  ’Operator of the Year’ award for 2009/10. It probably doesn’t mean too much outside the Calendar Club but I’m well chuffed plus I get a big shiny trophy, a slap up dinner, my photo in all CC literature and most importantly a novelty cheque worth £350! I reckon that should just about cover my bets for today…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

In yesterday’s Racing Post the paper asked all of the spokesmen (and sad as it is, they were all men) from the top 11 bookmaking firms for their opinions on a variety of questions relating to the Cheltenham Festival.

I thought it might be fun to give you my answers..

Who will win the Gold Cup?….

All 11 of the experts, without exception, went with Kauto Star and not wishing to look a fool I’ll agree.

How do you see the Champion Hurdle going?…..

Only 12 runners but with 9 of those dozen trading between 9/2 - 12/1 it’s a very open race. I won’t be getting involved too heavily in the race as the horse I thought was a great bet, Solwhit, has had his problems this week. If he’s not been affected by last weeks coughing he’ll be in the frame along with Medermit and Punjabi.

Can anything stop a Master Minded hat-trick in the Champion Chase?….

Having seen him demolish the last fence at Newbury in his prep race you’d have to think that the biggest obstacle Master Minded has to face are in fact the obstacles. If he can put in a clean round of jumping Big Zeb will give him most to do and Forpadydeplasterer will make up the tricast.

Is the World Hurdle cut and dried for Big Bucks?….

Yes.

Who are the biggest winners in your ante-post book?…..(the question put to the bookmakers was actually ‘biggest losers’ but as I am no longer a bookie and am now a punter I changed it)

I’ve got Captain Cee Bee at 25’s from before Christmas. He doesn’t do well on the trends but it’s probably the worst Arkle for many years and as he’s now 3/1 I’m in with a big chance. I will probably lay some of it off to balance out my books a little. If he wins I’ll definitely finish Cheltenham in front. I also have Oldrik at 25’s, Big Zeb at 14’s and Westlin Winds at 20’s.

Who are the ones to watch from Ireland?….

Apart from Dunguib, two horses that have attracted a lot of support over the last few weeks are Quel Esprit in the Neptune Hurdle (14/1 into 9/2) and Drumbaloo for the Bumper (14/1 into 8/1). It could be an Irish field day on the Tuesday with Dunguib, Captain Cee Bee/Sizing Europe, Go Native/Solwhit, Garde Champetre/L’Ami and Voler La Vadette/Quevega. Blue Square go 8/1 on five Irish winners on Day 1.

Who do you think will win the Supreme and Neptune Novices Hurdle?…..

With Paddy Power and Betfred making such great offers in the Supreme Novices I’m now in the position of not minding which of the front two in the betting wins. With these two firms making such great concessions only a Ladbrokes diehard or Betfair blinkered punter could lose money on this race, this year. The Neptune on the other hand is a lot tougher. I don’t think Rite of Passage has done enough to warrant being favourite and I’ll be looking for something to beat him. Peddlars Cross or Quel Esprit, whose form is rock solid, probably.

Which novices will win the Arkle and RSA Chase?….

Hopefully Captain Cee Bee and Weapons Amnesty.

Give us a value bet for the festival?…..

Atouchbetweencara in the Byrne Festival Plate on Thursday at 16/1

What’s your best bet of festival week?….

Ruby Walsh to be the top jockey and Paul Nicholls the top trainer. I wish I could do a double on the two!

Give us a life-changing Lucky 15?….

Atouchbetweencara (Byrne Plate), Tavern Times (Bumper), Westlin Winds (Triumph Hurdle) and Diktalina (Fred Winter)

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If you have a fancy for today or this week that you’d like to share with all the other readers please leave a comment below.

Good luck to everyone whatever you decide to back,
Gavin.

P.S. If you want my trends selections for all 26 races then the Festival Trends Guide is still available for just £19.95
>>>>Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide<<<<

I’ve scoured the net to bring you the best offers available at Cheltenham this week. From the largest companies to the smallest they all want your money and they’re prepared to give away a little something in order to get it. Which obviously is good news for us.

So don’t be blinkered into thinking Betfair is the only place to bet and offers the best value. There are plenty of great concessions out there and with just about every firm offering some sort of free bet incentive to new customers, You’ve never had it so good….

Paddy Power

They will refund your stake if the horse you back in the Supreme Novices Hurdle loses and Dunguib wins the race. There’s no catch and with non runner-no bet and best odds guaranteed in the race it really is one of the best offers available this Cheltenham.

They are also running a free to enter Naps Competition with a 500 Euros first prize.

Plus for any new customers they’ll match your first £20 with a free bet.

Get your Cheltenham off to a flyer at Paddy Power Online Betting

Betfred

Fred’s taken Paddy Powers concept and gone one step further by pledging to refund your stake if your horse lose the Supreme Novice Hurdle no matter what horse beats it. The only slight catch is that it’s refunded as a Free Bet rather than your money back but if you’re planning to have more than one bet at Cheltenham then that’s really not a problem.

With bonus’s of 100% or more on multiple bets throughout Cheltenham the self proclaimed ‘King of the Bonus’  has really pushed the boat out this year.

New customers get up to £50 in free bets when they open an account which they can do here>>>> BETFRED online betting

Star Bookmakers

You may not have heard of this small firm but they claim themselves the ‘Gentlemen’s Bookmaker’ and are based in Sussex. Although they have a website you can’t bet with them online but they do operate telephone accounts (credit and debit).

For their big Cheltenham concession the’ve gone the opposite way on the Supreme Novices and have offered all customers who back Dunguib their money back if the horse is unplaced (to a maximum of £500). The stake is returned as a Free Bet.

Check them out online here…. http://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/index.html

Blue Square

The big online firm have taken a wider view of Cheltenham for their offer. They promise to refund all bets if your horse is beaten in a photo finish in any race at the Festival.

They are also giving 10% cashback on all Cheltenham Placepots and Jackpots.

You can find them here…. http://www.bluesq.com/bet

The Tote

The Tote’s main offer this Festival is rewarding winners not losers. For every winner you back at 5/1 or bigger covered by Channel 4 they will give you a Free Bet (up to £25) to use the following day. You must use this bet by 1pm the next day and, regardless of how many winners you back, it’s only 1 free bet per day per customer .

Guaranteed odds are available on all races as is each way paid at 1/4 the odds for every race. New customers get up to £50 in free bets.

You can find the Nanny Goat here…. http://www.totesport.com/portal

Victor Chandler

The Gibraltar based on-course king has pledged to be the best price on EVERY horse in EVERY race at this years Festival. Basically he will at least match any price offered by Ladbrokes, William Hill, Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power, Totesport or Betfred from 10am each morning.

Plus he will refund all stakes as a free bet (up to £30 and singles only) if your horse Falls, Unseats, Slips Up, Refuses  or is Brought Down.

Plusif you place a Yankee or Super Yankee on any Cheltenham races and you only have 1 winner you’ll get your entire stake (up to £110) refunded to try again the next day.

Victors website is here…VICTOR CHANDLER

Bet365

They are doing the same as Victor and promising to be the best price on every horse but at all UK horse race meetings this week as well as continuing their usual Guaranteed Odds concession. They will at least match the price for the same bookies as Victor but don’t include Chandlers in their list.

They also offer a Free Bet on the next race if you back a winner, which is live on Channel 4, at 4/1 or greater.

And there is also up to £200 in free bets for all new customers.

Click here for Bet365’s online site

SportingBet

They are offering you your money back if your horse falls, is brought down or unseats as a free bet on the next days racing up to £25.

They are also doing a special ‘Five-A-Day’ feature from 11am for each day of the Festival. Basically this will be enhanced odds, enhanced doubles and extra places for certain races. Details of the races have yet to be announced.

Sporting Bet are here… http://sportingbet.com/

William Hill

They are continuing their policy of offering enhanced odds on certain runners in each race, each day. This offer isn’t just restricted to online as the prices are available in their high street branches too. At previous Festivals it has been possible to get some very generous prices on both fancied horses and outsiders. Definitely worth checking out.

For tomorrows William Hill Trophy they are also paying 1/4 odds the first 5 home.

Check them out online at http://www.williamhill.com/ or visit them on the high street.

Ladbrokes

From what I can gather Ladbrokes are offering the following concessions to all customers….

A free pen with every bet placed (Offer available in shops only. 1 small red pen per customer. Not guaranteed to work.)

The biggest bookmakers in the world and this is how they treat their customers at the biggest meeting of the year. Disgraceful!

Boycott Ladbrokes I say……

———-

With all this talk of offers I guess I’d better go ahead and do one of my own….

To all customers subscribed to my Festival Trends Guide by the first race of the Cheltenham Festival I make the following offer….

If I don’t tip at least one winner at 12/1 or bigger and don’t select at least 6 winners (trends or nag rated) in my Festival Trends Guide this week I will give everyone FREE access to my other product TrainerTrackStats (TTS) until the end of the season. After an incredible run of placed horses at the start of the TTS season we’ve finally started banging in the winners over the last month or so and since the first week in February we are over £1000 in profit (£20 stakes at Betfair odds). We are currently up £650 for the entire season. In the last 2 weeks alone we’ve had 3 x 9/1 winners and 2 x 8/1 winners.

This offer applies to all current Trends customers and any that sign up before the first race tomorrow…..

Get your copy here….. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

The full and final guide for Day 1 will be available from 1pm today with the update sheet online from 6pm tonight.

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s a great time to be a punter, dear readers, because as Cheltenham draws nearer the online betting firms are all trying to outdo each other in the great ‘who can offer the best Cheltenham concession’ stakes.

I thought it was Paddy Power and their money-back-if-Dunguib-wins that would win but bonkers Betfred has come along and out-’Done’ them.

Not satisfied with nominating a horse to win that will give you your money back he’s taken the concept one step further and regardless of what horse wins the Supreme Novices Hurdle any losing bets will be refunded.

That’s right if you back any horse that loses in the first race of the meeting Freds gonna give you your money back!

And the small print?

Basically it’s a maximum of £100 per customer and the money is refunded as a Free Bet to the same stake as your original bet. So unless you are only planning on having one bet at the meeting (and that’s the Supreme Novices race) then there doesn’t seem to be much wrong with this offer.

If you haven’t got a Betfred account yet then click below to open one now….

 Open a Betfred Account Here

———-

Like the flipside of a coin or the ying to the yang after Wednesday’s Post I bring you…..

My 5 worst Cheltenham Festival nightmares.

1) Multum In Parvo (Cathcart 1990)

As I said in my last post it was the nearest I have ever come to winning a 6 figure sum and you honestly couldn’t get any closer without winning. Multum In Parvo led for every inch of the course from the second last fence until the very last 1/36th of a yard. With the jockey dropping his whip on the run in, the eventual winner cutting him up, the stewards inquiry and the objection that went on for ages it was if someone was revelling in making me suffer.

Another second to keep me moaning and it meant another 6 months of working for William Hill.

2) The 2001 Cheltenham Festival

2 words Foot and Mouth. 2 more words Bloody and Annoying.

3) One Man (Queen Mother 1998)

Yes, I know everyone loved this horse. Yes, I know it was a fantastic performance to win the Queen Mother and yes it was his finest hour. Yes, it was very sad what happened in his next race but as a bookmaker this was our single worst result at the Cheltenham Festival in the 15 years we had our shops. I for one wished connections had carried on trying to win the Gold Cup with this non-stayer.

4) Yahoo (Gold Cup 1989)

Times were hard for me in 1989 as I struggled to make ends meet as a betting shop manager. All my wages ended up in Ladbrokes or in the Parrot Pub and annual trips to Vegas were just a dream back then. Oh how it could have been all so different if the gallant handicapper Yahoo had managed to hold off the challenge from that other pesky grey horse, Desert Orchid in the Gold Cup. He had good form in heavy and a lot of the field, including Desert-flipping-Orchid weren’t certain to appreciate the ground conditions so I had, what amounted to back then, a fairly large bet on him. Oh how I hate those grey horses, oh how I hate backing seconds, oh how I hated not backing him at Aintree next time out

5) Champion Hurdle 2002

‘Held up, smooth progess from 4th, close 4th and going easily 3 out, cruised into the lead jumping the last, sprinted clear, impressive’ could easily have been the Racing Post write-up for the ‘winner’ of the 2002 Champion Hurdle were it not for a cruel twist of fate that saw Valiramix stumble and slip up between the 2nd and 3rd last hurdle. The money I lost was irrelevant. Connections lost the most promising hurdler of recent times and we lost the chance to see the easiest Champion Hurdle winner ever.  A sad day which also saw three time Champion Hurdle winner Istabraaq pull up in his final career race.

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Cheltenham Festival

I had a look at the Top Jockey betting last week and made Ruby Walsh a good thing to win it which would seem to make Paul Nicholls a good bet to win the Trainers Title. Or does it? Let’s have a look….

Using a complicated formula involving the number of each trainers intended runners, the current odds available for each race and their respective % chances I came up with the following figures for how many winners each trainer may have….

P. Nicholls 3.5 (i.e. 3 or 4)
N. Henderson 1.5
W. Mullins 1
D. Pipe 0.5
JJ O’Neill 0.5
A. King 0.5

Again, it won’t be for everyone as the odds are pretty short but 1/2 does look a very good bet on Mr Nicholls being top trainer.

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The Imperial Cup

I’ve done a FREE Trends Guide for the big race this afternoon and you can download a copy by clicking below…….

>>>>THE IMPERIAL CUP<<<<

There’s no sign-up required and no card details will be asked for. This is a direct link that takes you straight to the guide.

Our selection has a very strong trends profile and we’re very hopeful of a big run from him.

Good luck,
Gavin.

P.S. Should you wish to invest any winnings in this years 126 page Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide then it’s still up for sale at the incredibly generous price of just £19.95. Get your copy below….

>>>>Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide<<<<

I’ve taken a look back over my punting career to come up with my top 5 Cheltenham memories…

1) Something Wells

I’ll never forget the adrenalin rush I experienced last year as the horse laid down his challenge on the home turn before leading over the last and then battling on bravely to hold on from his stablemate. Heaven knows what my neighbours must have thought as I shouted, cheered and charged around the front room like a lunatic. My family had taken refuge in the kitchen and only came out of hiding once he was back in the parade ring and I had calmed down a little. It was the most money I’d ever won a single horse, which was obviously great, but knowing so many other people had won big money too was just as gratifying. If only every confident tip I gave out could run like that….

2) Norton’s Coin

Up to 12 months ago this was the highlight of my betting career. I was working as a betting shop manager for William Hills in Torquay and had little knowledge of the form book back then (some will say I have little knowledge of it even now!) but I was keen to learn and there were plenty of successful punters in the shop keen to teach. My punting guru Phil Laister and I used to talk most mornings and go through our fancies for the day. Neither of us were ever what you would call ‘favourite backers’ and we were always trying to find the big outsider to beat the jolly and give us a big pay day.  I have come close on many occasions but never closer than Gold Cup day 1990. We were both keen on the chances of a massive outsider in the Gold Cup and we both took the 200/1 in Ladbrokes. I stuck him in a multiple bet with  Call Collect in the Foxhunters, Bigsun in the Kim Muir and after Nortons Coin had done the business my dreams of retirement hinged on 12/1 shot Multum In Parvo in the Cathcart. No prizes for guessing where he eventually finished.

Nortons Coin remains the longest priced winner I’ve ever backed and that bet the nearest to a 6 figure payout I’ve ever had.

3) Monkerhostin

He was a horse I had noted running a cracker in the Tote Gold Trophy at Newbury when finishing third to Geos and Rooster Booster having looked the likely winner over the last. I checked the entries for Cheltenham as soon as they were published and took 14/1 on him for the Coral Cup. He had a prep race at Kempton (a Grade 2 hurdle) a couple of weeks before ,which he won nicely, and I was as confident of him winning the Coral Cup as I’ve ever been about any horse winning any handicap before or since. I topped up £200 on him before the race, which was a massive bet for me back then,  and settled down to watch proceedings in a London boozer with Matt. The result was never in any doubt throughout the race and he eventually won by a length. Happy days!

4) Unsinkable Boxer

It wasn’t my biggest ever bet, I didn’t win massive amounts, he wasn’t a big outsider and I didn’t tip him to hundreds of people but he was the easiest winner I’ve ever backed at Cheltenham. For the horse to win so easily in one of the toughest handicaps of the season was just a joy to watch. Sent off the 5/2 favourite for the 1998 24 runner Gold Card Final (now the Pertemps) he led 2 flights from home and never came out of a canter with Tony McCoy turning around up the run-in to taunt those behind him by waving his whip in a rare show of cockiness. It was probably also the last time Tony McCoy smiled at the Cheltenham Festival.

5) Space Fair

This one holds particularly good memories for me because it came at a time of extreme desperation.  For a disastrous 18 months my brother and I had a betting shop in Poole and we were on the ropes due to a very shrewd local bookmaker having an incredible winning run. We were constantly having to pay him out and struggling to keep afloat when I finally made a breakthrough and backed Space Fair to win the Grand Annual. He obliged at 5/1 and I followed it up by backing the Cathcart and The County Hurdle winner for good measure. We took the money and got the hell out of Dodge. I had some good times there, can claim to have lived in Sandbanks (albeit for 2 months) and met my good mate Matt but the thought of that betting shop still sends shivers down my spine….

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Festival Trends

Another post, another plug.

It’s still not too late to get a copy of this years Festival Trends which includes our Ante-Post Guide and 4 from the Handicaps Sheet. A lot of our horses have come in for some good support over the last few days (none more so than our Grand Annual selection) which is good news as it  means that they’re probably running in the correct races for us and that they’re fancied by connections.

I’ve had my Lucky 15 on our 4 handicap horses and according to betfred I’ll be winning just short of a £million if they all oblige. There’s nothing wrong with dreaming!

The 6 day race declarations will be made over the coming days and we’ll be tweaking the guide as running plans become more evident. The final version for each day will be made when the 24 hour decs are announced.

The main guide is currently 129 pages long, covers all 26 races due to be run at the Festival and is just £19.95….

You can get your copy here>>>> http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

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Latest Cheltenham news

Dunguib took a step closer to even money when Sporting Bet eased the Irish super novice to 5/6 yesterday. It’s only a matter of time….

I obviously didn’t rub my lucky rabbits foot hard enough on Monday as within 10 minutes of writing my post the connections of Solwhit announced that he was doubtful for the Champion Hurdle. He’s said to be less than 50-50 to make the line-up…

Having written an email to Charlie Egerton wishing him luck in the Triumph Hurdle with Westlin Winds he replied yesterday to tell me everything was going according to plan with the horses preparations. He also invited me to have a look around his stables which was a nice touch and an invitation I hope to take him up on in the Spring. I think I’ll try the same trick with Henry Cecil and wish him luck with Twice Over’s Dubai World Cup challenge. I wouldn’t mind having a look around Warren Place…..

And finally, William Hill finally joined in with the rest of the bookmaking fraternity to offer non-runner/no bet on all ante-post Festival bets. And about time too…

Good luck,
Gavin.

1) Grand National…

Judging by the reaction of the bookmakers, the racing experts and plenty of punters I may be alone in saying this but as that’s never stopped me before here goes…Big Fella Thanks can’t possibly win the Grand National.

Quite how he got promoted to 8/1 favourite on the back of a win in a 2 1/2 mile handicap is beyond me especially when he did his level best to throw away the race. When you consider the length of the run-in from the final fence at Aintree, idling in front and staggering around like a drunken sailor throughout the final furlong are not the qualities I look for in a National favourite and anyone who’s followed his career will know it’s not the first time this horse has done it. On his first run over fences at Chepstow he was sent off the 4/6f  and had the race in the bag as he led over the last but on went the brakes and 3rd(!) place was where he ended up. 2 runs later and he was up to his old tricks again at Taunton as he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, this time as the 1/4 favourite. Yes he was 6th last year in the National but he was beaten 23 lengths in a very slowly run race that saw any number of runners still in with a chance 3 fences out.

I for one am not interested in his chances for the Grand National one little bit.

2) Hitting form…

Having gone the whole of last week without a bet, in order to keep my powder dry for Cheltenham, I allowed myself half an hour in Betfred’s on the way back from doing the weekly shop at Morrisons. What a good decision that turned out to be as first up I backed Quinz at Kempton, who won at 9/4 for my £40, and then followed it up with another £40 bet on Wogan, who won at 5/1. The slight dampener on the latter was reading in yesterday’s Racing Post that he is very unlikely to go to Cheltenham. As I have backed him for the Kim Muir at a big price on Betfair it looks as if I’ve done my money, again. At least I didn’t get involved with Possol though! After the shenanigans of last week there was no way I was going to back him this time around and after seeing him put in such a poor jumping display I reckon his not running in last weeks Racing Post Chase may have been a blessing in disguise. I may have lost my money ante-post on him but  I was saved from going in again on the day of the race.

Of course no trip to the bookies would be complete for me without backing a second and the £60 I left on Doctor David in the last at Doncaster seemed to restore a little order to the world when he finished runner-up.

It was good though to be hitting a bit of form just as the most important meeting of the year approaches.

3) Evens on Dunguib…

Reading through the last few Racing Post’s it looks like there are plenty of bookmakers out there who are willing to take Dunguib on in the first race of the Festival and I reckon his current odds-on quotes may begin to lengthen over the next week or so. I’m not suggesting that he’ll be available at anything like 6/4 but it’s not impossible that even money will be freely offered on the day of the race. It’s now looking likely that Get Me Out of Here will run in this race as his odds are shortening all the time which can only help anyone holding out for evens.

4) Dropping like flies….

We’re now into that period before any big meeting when you have to start rubbing your lucky rabbits foot, touching wood at every opportunity, avoid walking under any ladders and sprinkling your ante-post tickets with holy water. Yes, it’s that time of year when all the fancied, and not so fancied, runners start getting injured. Mille Chief, Punchestowns, Binocular (yes, no, maybe), Sublimity, Notre Pere (saves  all that travelling just to pull up), Secant Star, Mikhael D’Haguenet have all had reported problems recently and there’s bound to be plenty more before the meeting starts.

I’ve dodged the bullets so far but there’s still another week of nail biting anxiety to go.

5) Racehorse ownership isn’t high on the missus’s agenda….

Having seen that there were a few shares in Diktalina up for grabs I had speculated that I might take up the opportunity of getting involved with the partnership. My dreams of owning a share in a Cheltenham winner didn’t last long though as the missus was having none of it, mainly due to the fact she has her heart set on a holiday home down in Torbay. We’ve found a lovely little place in Paignton and with the down payment on that, our Easter family holiday to Vegas all paid for and my gambling funds for Cheltenham put aside the Priestley coffers are now nearly empty. I’ll just have to have a few quid on the mare (Diktalina) and cheer her on as if I owned her.

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Festival Trends

Our 4 for the Handicaps ante-post sheet is now ready for download.

We may struggle to match the amazing success of last year when we tipped Something Wells at 33/1 but we have got 4 horses who all share the same characteristics as that runner i.e. they all fit the trends, they all have good recent form and they’re all big prices.

The four are currently trading at 40/1, 20/1, 20/1 (subject of recent heavy support) and 25/1

It’s a cool £600,000 for a £1 Lucky 15. Something to dream about over the next week!

Some of our selections have alternative engagements but with most firms now betting non-runner no bet at least we’ll get our money back should they run elsewhere. It did happen last year when we tipped Horner Woods for the Jewson Novices Handicap only to see him run second to Cooldine in the Sun Alliance Chase instead. On that run I think I might have been right in saying he may be well handicapped off 10-00 in the Jewson!

Download the sheet from the Members Area : http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

Trawling through all the stats and data from previous Cheltenham Festival’s while researching this years trends guide I found some pretty interesting, and some not so interesting, bits of trivia.

Here are a few little tit-bits you may (or may not) like to note…..

Breeding

- Montjeu has never sired the winner of a Cheltenham Festival race.
I don’t know how relevant this stat is but I read it somewhere while doing my research and thought it was quite interesting. Both Orzare and Capenallus, who are highly fancied for the Fred Winter handicap hurdle, are by Montjeu.

- All 17 winners of the Bumper race have been sired by 17 different horses.
A stat that probably highlights more that I have too much time on my hands rather than pointing us in the direction of the winner. But if you are persuaded by this particular trend you won’t want to back Drumbaloo, Blue Monster, Dare Me, Dunraven Storm, On His Own, Swing State or Tacern Times as their sires have already won the Bumper.

- French breds have a tremendous record in all Festival chases up to 2m5f.

There are currently six such races run at the festival and last year French Bred’s won 4 of the 6. But for Kalahari King being a short head 2nd and Voy Por Ustedes also filling that same finishing position they would have had  the clean sweep. In 2007 they won 5 of the 6 races.

The race that this is most evident in is the Festival Plate run on the Thursday. 6 of the last 10 winners have all been French Bred’s and the 4 years that they missed out they managed to provide the runner-up. Our big tip last year Something Wells was French as were the second and third home in the race

Handicaps

- In the two new novice handicaps (Fred Winter & Jewson Chase) all 10 winners took until at least their third run to win over the respective obstacles.

Using this trend you would have been able to dismiss the 2009 favourite for the Fred Winter Alexander Severus, the 2008 beaten favourite Ashkazar plus the 2009 Jewson Novice favourite Kia Kaha.

Looking to this years Festival, the first four in the betting for the Jewson Novice Chase all fail this trend (Hey Big Spender, The Hollinwell, Sunnyhill Boy and Rivaliste) as do well fancied runners, Open Day and Orzare, in the Fred Winter.

Trainers

We all know the Irish have a great record in the Bumper but it’s not until you delve a bit deeper than you see just how dominant there runners really are. Yes, they’ve won the race 14 out of the 17 times it’s been run but did you know that for the last 3 years they have had 21 of the first 24 horses home?

In 2007 there were 24 runners of which 50% were trained in Britain. The best we could manage was 6th.
In 2008 there were 23 runners and just under 50% (11 of the 23) were British trained. A little better, we managed 4th and 8th
but in 2009 we put up our worst defence ever with a 9th place the best we could muster. Admittedly we Brits had said enough-is-enough and accounted for only 1/3 of the field (8 of 24)

Still fancy Al Ferof from the Paul Nicholls stable?

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Nicky Henderson looks to have a very strong team this year and there’s bound to be plenty of support for his runners but in certain races he’s definitely worth taking on.

NIM Novices Hurdle. The second race on the Wednesday is run over 2m5f but don’t expect Mr Henderson’s charges to be challenging for honours as the runners bound up the hill. In his illustrious training career he has tried with 20 horses to win this race all without success. In fact since 1990 the best he has managed is 7th place. When you look at some of his runners in this time you start to wonder why he still bothers trying.

Last year Mad Max was the 6/1 fourth favourite who laboured home in 8th. Travado in 1992 was 15/2 and fourth favourite but could manage only 7th. Aigle d’Or in 2008 actually went off the 4/1 favourite but never gave his supporters any hope and finished a tailed off last of 13 finishers. In 2007 Duc De Regnierre was a 9/1 fifth favourite who could only manage 13th out of 14. In 2003 while most people were watching Hardy Eustace fight out an exciting finish with Pizzaro and Coolnagorna Nicky Henderson’s binoculars would have been focused further down the field as his Calling Brave came home stone cold last of the 17 finishers. You get the picture….

Finians Rainbow and Quantativeeasing are both very prominent in the betting for Nicky Henderson this year.

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They don’t come much bigger than trainer, Paul Nicholl’s and he’s got a formidable team assembled for this years Festival but beware his runner in the 4 mile NH chase on the Wednesday. He’s had just 1 placed runner from 12 starters, which in itself should set the alarm bells ringing, but when you consider that 9 of these 12 runners were in the top 5 of the betting it’s time to start a full scale panic!

With the 9/2 favourite in 2008, 2/1 favourite in 2007, 10/1 3rd favourite in 2006 and the 5/1 favourite in 2004 (Silver Birch) amongst his losers it should make you think twice about steaming into current 6/1 jolly Massosoit

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Form

 When looking at the handicap hurdles at the Festival it may sound obvious but it’s worth saying anyway, last time out winners have a fantastic record in these types of races. When looking through the fields of runners you’ll usually find only about 1 in 5 (20%) satisfy this stat but these runners have provided the winner of over 50% of all handicap hurdles run at the festival since 1994.

In the Coral Cup 6 of the last 7 winners were successful last time out as were the first three home in both 2008 & 2009. In 2007 there were only 2 last time out winners in a field of 28 runners but they still managed to provide the 10/1 winner with Burntoakboy. It’s the same story for the Pertemps Final where 9 of the last 14 winners won last time out. In 2009 just three horses lined up on the back of a win but out of a field of 24 they were still responsible for the 16/1 winner Kayf Aramis.

Betting

With such competitive racing and usual big fields it’s really not that surprising to find favourites having a terrible record in certain races. Only 2 of the last 17 Arkles have gone the way of the market leader, in the 4 mile NH Chase there hasn’t been an outright favourite win since 1992 and 6 of the last 9 winners of the Foxhunters returned 14/1 or bigger.

But, that’s not to say that fancied horses don’t regularly win certain races. Those looking for an outsider to back may want to steer clear of The Gold Cup as all of the last 9 winners have come from the top 3 in the betting, or the RyanAir chase where all 5 winners returned 6/1 or under, or the Neptune Novices Hurdle which has seen 22 of the last 24 winners come from the front 6 in the market.

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I hope you found something of interest in amongst that little lot and they help you pinpoint a winner or avoid backing a loser.

If it’s got you wanting more stats, figures and trends then our 2010 Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide is now available for purchase. All 26 races due to be run at the Festival are covered and it currently runs to 129 pages.

It’s just £19.95 which works out at less than £1 a race.

Our eagerly anticipated 4 for the Handicaps, which last year highlighted 33/1 winner Something Wells, will be out on Monday.

Get your copy from here>>>2010 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TRENDS GUIDE

or if you are already a Festival Trends subscriber simply login to your account at…

http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

Good luck,
Gavin.

You probably don’t need reminding that Cheltenham is now less than 2 weeks away and the countdown is well and truly underway but I thought I’d go ahead and tell you anyway.

What is does mean though is for the next 2 weeks I will be concentrating solely on the big meeting and bringing you all the latest news and hopefully highlighting a few winners.

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There were a couple of articles in yesterday’s Racing Post that caught my eye….

Firstly, in the Triumph Hurdle section that Pricewise had done there was a quote from Charlie Egerton who trains my big Triumph Hurdle hope Westlin Winds….

“He is being aimed at the Triumph. He’s very well and everything has gone to plan with his preperation. He would go on soft, but he’d be better on good ground. He’s been something of a forgotten horse, but his form is good. Ollie Greenall will ride.”

Which is good news for quite a few reasons;
1) I had been a bit worried that connections may have been considering the Fred Winter Handicap with him but that now looks unlikely
2) He hasn’t been out for a while but we now know it’s not because he’s injured.
3) If the going turns soft he’ll still run and if it firms up a bit he’ll have an even bigger chance.
4) The trainer, like me, thinks his form is good enough.

I actually emailed Charlie Egerton urging him to run Westlin Winds in the Triumph and not the Fred Winter and while I know it probably won’t have any affect on his decision such is my investment on the horse I didn’t think it could hurt!

Click here if you haven’t yet downloaded the completely free trends guide for the Triumph Hurdle >>>2010 Triumph Hurdle Guide
(There are no sign-up or card details required. This link takes you directly to the guide and it’s yours to keep)

The other bit in the Post that caught got my attention was a write-up about Diktalina’s owner and her being his last roll of the dice for his syndicate. If you’ve been reading my posts recently you’ll know I really like this horse and unlike Westlin Winds I hope she runs in the Fred Winter. By all accounts she will, which is good news, but the interesting bit in the article was that there are still 4 shares left in the horse.

Having visited the syndicate website it appears the shares are still available at £2000 for 5% + £120 month training fees. A bit steep but having had some luck on the poker tables recently it’s given me serious food for thought. A 1/20th share of a possible Cheltenham winner sounds tempting.

All I need to do now is persuade the missus. I’ll let you know how I get on…

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After mentioning bet365’s amazing Cheltenham offer in Monday’s post it seems other firms are now keen to get in on the act and start offering their own incentives to get you to bet with them. I’ll keep my eye out for you and bring you the best of the offers as they are announced.

Today it’s the turn of Paddy Power who will refund all losing bets (up to £200) in the Supreme Novices Hurdle if Dunguib wins the race.

This is another great concession that is likely to cost the firm upwards of a £1 million with Dunguib trading as one of the shortest prices at the whole meeting and most peoples idea of a banker. When the firm make offers like this it’s not hard to see why their profits have dropped by 15% in the last year.

In our trends guide we actually oppose the favourite in this race as he has a couple of minor trends to overcome but on all known form he’s obviously the one horse they all have to beat. Which means Paddy Powers offer is the perfect concession for me, and anyone else opposing Dunguib, as should Ireland’s highly exciting prospect win the race we’ll get our cash back on any losing bets (as long as they run!).

Now if  any firm out there wants to offer me money back on any seconds I back at Cheltenham then please let me know.

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Cheltenham Festival Top Jockey

A few stats…

Ruby Walsh has been the top jockey 4 of the last 6 years with 3, 3, 3 and 7 wins at the meeting.
Paul Nicholl’s has contributed to the winning jockeys total in 6 of the last 10 Festivals
The last time Tony McCoy was top jockey was in 1998 (5 wins)
11 of the last 12 top jockeys at the meeting rode 3 or more winners
The last time a jockey won the trophy having ridden just one winner was in 1982 (Jonjo O’Neill)

Interesting fact: Ruby Walsh has drawn a blank on 4 of the last 6 opening days of the meeting (he managed 1 winner last year)

With the mighty Paul Nicholl’s stable behind him and the added bonus of being the number 1 Irish jockey when any spare rides come up he looks almost certain, barring injury, to be crowned Top Jockey again this year. With 3 winners normally enough to land the title his four main rides of Master Minded, Quevega, Kauto Star and Bick Bucks may be enough to win it on their own. Add to that the fact he will probably ride in every race and he should record enough placings to ensure he wins if it ends up a tie for the most winners. Only Barry Geraghty looks able to muster a book of rides that could produce the 3 or more winners needed to challenge for the title but he doesn’t have a ride you would consider banker material.

The current odds of 4/7 may not appeal to everyone but for those of you who don’t mind backing the short ones it does look overpriced. I reckon he’s a 1/3 shot.

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I’ll be back tomorrow with news of my Cheltenham Trends which is 128 pages long, covers all 26 races and is only £19.95. You can get a copy here… Festival Trends 2010 Cheltenham Guide

Good luck,
Gavin.

When in a hole, stop digging!

It’s an often used cliche but one which we should all remember.

Having made Possol a very confident selection early on in the week for the Racing Post Chase it was annoying, to say the least, to see the trainer have other ideas and pull him out due to the ground. I changed to Miss Mitch who looked a fairly decent  alternative but when that one was also ruled out due to a late injury I really should have given up as the trends were now looking unreliable. Scratching around to try and make the trends fit I finally arrived at Piraya, a blow average chaser at best and a total rogue at worst. Another all too familiar dodgy run from that one probably gave me the result I deserved and an expensive lesson in ‘betting for the sake of it’.

I apologise to anyone who may have backed him and promise not to make the same mistake with the trends again. Sorry!

I have another horse for Cheltenham (or Aintree, or both!)….

The Racing Post Chase may have been a poor renewal this year but there is one horse worth taking from the race with an eye to future big handicaps. Private Be is now an 11yo but showed he is no hasbeen as he ran a cracker for most of the way before being outpaced from 3 out. This was his first try at 3 miles and will probably be his last as he patently didn’t stay the trip. A drop back to around 2m4f/2m5f  is needed and as he has shown excellent form in the past at both Cheltenham and Aintree I would imagine he’ll be aimed at some of the handicaps there over the next month or so. Going back through his form there are some really good runs to be seen and after some encouraging efforts this season I reckon he could land a big prize at big odds.

There is an awards ceremony where the winners are chosen correctly…

After the Hurt Locker cleared up at the Bafta’s, Lady Gaga at the Brits and Harry Hill come away empty handed at the TV Awards night it was beginning to look like the voting panels had all gone mad. Whatever next? Cheryl Cole doesn’t make the list for FHM’s sexiest female?

However, order has been restored in the world after last nights Professional Jockeys Association annual prize giving ceremony, better known as The Lesters, where the correct winners were rewarded with their prizes. Who could argue with Tony McCoy being given best NH ride for Wichita Lineman at last years Cheltenham Festival? or being voted Jump Jockey of the Year? Ryan Moore, Flat Jockey of the Year? Hayley Turner, Lady Jockey of the Year? Mick Kinane, International Jockey of the Year? Not me.

But my favourite was Tom Queally winning the Flat Ride of the Year for Midday at the Breeders Cup. Last year saw him emerge as a top flight jockey, riding for a famous stable in all the big races and this fantastic ride was the highlight of the season for me. The tactical and pace awareness he showed in the race was sublime and he was a very worthy winner of the award. I doubt he’ll be getting  jocked off in favour of Frank Spencer in next years St Leger!

Betfair is good but is not always the best bet….

One of the many things Betfair has helped us punters with is that it’s given the old school bookies the kick up the backside they needed to start offering a bit more value to their customers. For too many years the big bookmaking firms offered very little or no value at all safe in the knowledge that if you didn’t like it, tough. Where else were you going to go?

But since Betfair burst onto the scene, and there was somewhere else to go, they’ve had to do a fair bit of adjusting to try and stay competitive. Signup bonuses, enhanced place terms, money back offers etc. are all the norm now but Bet365 have raised the bar again with what has to be the finest ante-post offer ever made.

Fully 2 weeks before the Cheltenham Festival they are offering non-runner / money back AND guaranteed odds on all their Cheltenham markets!

I have never seen guaranteed odds on an ante-post market before and the money back offer is a MAJOR concession. Grab all the big prices about all your Festival runners now safe in the knowledge your money will be returned if yor horse doesn’t show up. If you have any ante-post fancies for Cheltenham you just have to back them with bet365.

It will be interesting to see if any other firms decide to follow their lead

Being infront of a laptop for 16 straight hours isn’t good for you…

Having spent all of yesterday morning, afternoon and evening putting the finishing touches to this years Cheltenham Festival Trends Guide (now on sale here) I foolishly decided to play some late night/early morning poker. Another good run of cards and 4 hours later I finally shut my laptop having spent 16 hours staring at an illuminated 18 inch screen with just a few call-of-nature breaks and 10 minutes playing G1 Jockey on the Wii with Dylan.

Eye strain, headaches, numb bum, unhealthy food, child neglect and constant nagging from the missus were just a few side affects of my marathon compute and after finishing this post I’m off out to get some fresh air down the park with my son. And no poker tonight!

……….well maybe just a quick turbo tournament.

Good luck,
Gavin.