With the weights for the Cheltenham handicaps published today I’m going to have a very busy weekend sifting through the hundreds of entries for our Trends Guide which is out on Monday. There are however a few horses I’ve noted over the last month or so which I was hoping would get an entry and I’ll give you them further down the post.
Meydan
But first I’d just like to pass on something that I have been noticing since Meydan first opened its doors for racing in January. I don’t know whether anyone’s been following the racing there or seen the results but Saeed Bin Suroor and Mike De Kock seem to be cleaning up at every meeting. Take for instance last nights meeting where they won 6 of the 8 races staged. So it got me to thinking, can we make any money out of it?
So far Meydan have raced 7 meetings (5 Thursday’s and 2 Fridays) starting on January 28th and between the two stables they have won 29 of the 53 races staged. A staggering 54.7%. The breakdown for the two stables look like this…
28th Jan: Suroor 1 winner De Kock 2 winners (3 of 7 races staged)
4th Feb: Suroor 3 De Kock 3 (6/8)
5th Feb: Suroor 2 De Kock 0 (2/8)
11th Feb: Suroor 3 De Kock 1 (4/8)
18th Feb: Suroor 4 De Kock 2 (6/7)
19th Feb: Suroor 2 De Kock 0 (2/7)
25th Feb: Suroor 3 De Kock 3 (6/8)
Totals: Suroor 18 De Kock 11
Which looks highly impressive but could you have made money from just backing them blind?
Well, for those 18 winners Saeed Bin Suroor has sent out 91 runners (an average of 1.71 runners per race) at odds ranging from 4/5 - 50/1 and has a level stakes profit of over £58!
Mike De Kock on the other hand has sent out 61 runners (av. 1.1 runners per race) for his 11 winners at odds ranging from10/11 - 8/1 and has a level stakes loss of -£29!
But the strange thing is that for the Friday meetings Mike de Kock has yet to win a race and Saeed Bin Suroor has won only 4 of the 15 races. So simply concentrating on the Thursday meetings we see revised figures for the two trainers as….
From the 38 races staged on a Thursday at Meydan, Bin Suroor has won 14 and de Kock 11 (the pair won 65.8% of all races run)
To get those 14 winners Suroor ran 71 runners and retains a level stakes profit of £56
De Kock ran 45 horses for his 11 winners but still loses -£13.
So by backing their horses blindly on a Thursday at Meydan you would have made a nice profit and had plenty of winners but, and it’s a big but, take out Suroor’s 50/1 outsider in the Dubai Guineas and things don’t look quite so rosy.
Yes, they win loads of races but with multiple entries in most contests unfortunately it doesn’t look like proving a profitable system. Oh well, worth a try but the search for the perfect system continues…..
Cheltenham Handicaps
There are a number of horses in my notebook waiting to be backed in handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival. I’ve spent the morning seeing if my notes match the plans of their trainers and what entries have been made for them. Here’s how that worked out….
(Please be aware that these may or may not be horses eventually chosen in my trends guide. These are purely personal opinions based solely on form and what I’ve seen this season)
Oldrik
Ran a good race at Cheltenham and a cracking race in the totesport hurdle last weekend. He looks to me like a horse wanting further than 2 miles and I thought something like the Coral Cup would be ideal. His name didn’t appear in that list but he has entries in both the County Hurdle and The Martin Pipe Conditional jockeys handicap. With the latter being over 2m 4f that would seem ideal to me and I’ll be backing it for that one with a decent each way bet. He’s 20/1 with Hills but I think I’ll be able to get better than that when the other firms open up so I’ll wait for 33’s. He’s 33’s with Corals for the County hurdle so I’ll have a little bit on that too as a saver.
I’m So Lucky
I followed him throughout his novice campaign and he was a big trends selection at Aintree last year but ran no race at all. He was disappointing in his first run this season but next time out was looking all over the winner when being brought down at Cheltenham. I wasn’t sure what distance would be best for him (2m-2m4f) and it seems David Pipe is undecided too as he has entered him for both the Grand Annual (2 miles) and the Festival Plate Handicap (2m5f). He’s top priced 20/1 for each of the races so a little bit for both will do until firm plans are made.
Le Burf
He runs in the Racing Post Chase tomorrow but has it to do from the bottom of the weights. However I really fancy him for the Festival Plate as he was in the process of running very well in last years race before falling and has been doing ok on the whole this season. Like a lot of horses he’s obviously being trained with Cheltenham in mind and a repeat run in the Festival Plate looks the most obvious route for him. However, he’s been running over 3 miles in his last few outings and has an alternative entry in the William Hill Handicap Chase. I’ll go with my instincts and take the 40’s with Ladbrokes for the Festival Plate.
Ashkazar
This season he’s looked like a horse being laid out for a big prize at the Festival and all looks to be going to plan as his handicap rating has plumetted all season. He’s now just 1lb higher than when running 2nd in the 2008 Fred Winter Handicap and has run promisingly in his last two races. He’s been entered in three races and it’s difficult to second guess the Pipe stable but judging by William Hills betting they’re thinking along the same lines as me and make him just 16/1 for the Martin Pipe Handicap (while offering 33/1 for the Pertemps and 40/1 for the Coral Cup)
Diktalina
I like this horse a lot and will be wading into her for the Fred Winter Novices handicap as I think she’s not quite up to the Triumph Hurdle standard and will no doubt run here instead. It’s not surprising to see Open Day as the favourite for this race after 2 very good recent runs but Diktalina slammed that one by 9 lengths and will be no worse off at the weights come the race. She’s 14’s with Hills but I’m sure I’ll be able to get 20’s or better when more firms are betting on the race and a big bet is forthcoming.
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Trends
I did the trends for the Racing Post Chase early in the week and one horse stood out a mile and was the most confident trends choice in a long time. Unfortunately the trainer had other ideas and even though he had trained the horse all season with this race in mind soft ground apparently wasn’t an option and he doesn’t run. Worst of all the trainer didn’t bother telling anyone this until very late in the day and well after the 5 day declarations were announced. I’m sorry to anyone who followed me and backed him ante-post.
I’ve re-done the application of the trends and although there is no outstanding candidate now I’m still pretty confident of a good run from the selection.
You can download the guide for FREE here….. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/freeguide/theracingpostchase.pdf
(This is a direct link and no signup/payment etc. is required)
I’ve also got the FREE guide for the Triumph Hurdle here….. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/freeguide/chelt2010triumph.pdf
(Again a direct link with no signup/payment etc. required)
And lastly….
The Cheltenham 2010 Trends Guide will be out on Monday from 5pm. You can pre-order your copy now at…. Festival Trends 2010 Cheltenham
where there’s a 5 Race Ante-Post guide now available to download for all subscribers.
Good luck,
Gavin.