Archive for February 23rd, 2010

A brief betting history…

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Following on from a couple of posts I did at the end of last year I thought I’d bring you up to date with what I’ve been up to and how my lucks been over the past 2 months….

There wasn’t too much to report over Christmas although I do now have a very nice looking ante-post voucher on Captain Cee Bee at 25/1 for the Arkle. I won’t win a massive amount if he should prevail at Cheltenham but it will be nice to actually have a big priced ante-post winner as I can’t remember having too many of those in my time. Usually it’s 25/1 that any horse I back actually lines up in the race so there’s still plenty of time for the bet to go belly up. With an ante-post portfolio of Westlin Winds in the Triumph (20/1), Solwhit for the Champion Hurdle (6/1) and Big Zeb for the Queen Mother (14’s) I’m hopeful of getting at least one to the post with a chance of a pickup.

A nice bet on Kauto Star in the King George should have paid for Christmas but I lost it all back on the Welsh National when I chose the wrong Hobbs horse and backed Kornati Kid. At least one trends reader was happy though as he combined the horses in our ratings to get the tricast up. Well done Sir! I’m quite good at getting the second horse right in a Tricast but I do tend to struggle to find the two horses either side.

I can’t recall having too many bets through the first part of January due to work and the weather but I have no doubt I managed to back a few more seconds in the period.  One thing I do remember though is noting a horse on the all-weather who ran a lot better than his jockey had us believe that day. All I had to do now was wait for him to run again in a handicap. I ended up waiting over a month for him and, as you will find out later, it very nearly paid off. It won’t take a brain surgeon, a quantam physicist or a rocket scientist to work out where he finished.

Undoubtedly though, the highlight of the betting month was Mamlook finally winning the big handicap he had always threatened to win. A nice each way bet at 12/1 more than covered all previous losses on the horse, paid for Christmas and got my New Years wish list off to a flyer. He doesn’t really like Cheltenham and there aren’t any races at his optimum trip run at the Festival so I’ll be having only a small bet on him if he runs there but Aintree, well that’s a different matter. And then on to the Chester Cup……

With work out of the way for another season I jumped on the first available plane to Vegas for 5 days of R & R (usually Roulette and Racing). As I said last week I kept off the roulette tables on the whole and periodically played profitable poker. With long sessions playing low stake slot machines with my dad and the missus it was a great holiday and financially not too damaging. So much so I’m off back to do it all again in late March.

Having three months off from the poker tables seems to have sharpened up my game a bit and I’ve been having some very good results on the felt recently. I’m making enough money at the cards to nearly compensate for my losses on the horses. Nearly!

I took the family down to Devon last weekend and having dumped my son and the missus at her friends I headed straight for the casino in Torquay for the Friday night poker tournament. A good run of cards, some good play and bit of good fortune later I made the final table with a decent pile of chips. A poor run of cards, some poor play and a bit of bad fortune later I was on my way home with 6th place prizemoney. A profitable night though and again I managed to stay away from the roulette meaning I took all of my winnings home with me.

On the Saturday I called in on my magician friend Zak who has just opened a barbers shop called Capones in Torquay. A nice bacon butty, a few hands of poker in between haircuts and a chance to catchup was a great start to the day. Incidentally if anyone needs a first class, award winning close-up magician for a wedding, birthday, corporate do or any other get together then Zak’s your man. Or if you’re in Torquay and need a haircut then Zak’s still your man.

Check out his website here…. http://zakstonemagic.com/default.aspx

In the afternoon I decided to do something I hadn’t done for a very long time (no, not back a winner) but spend the afternoon with my brother in the bookies. We decided to visit the betting shop that we owned from 1990-2002 situated just outside Paignton and now owned by Ladbrokes. It didn’t take long for my brother’s claim that it is his ‘lucky shop’ to be disproved. We made it in time for the 2pm race to watch Matt’s horse Night Orbit run but it was another outsider I was interested in backing. My brother was on Quinz each way and it was particularly galling for him to see it finish 5th as it was my horse The Real Deal who ran it out of the frame. 1-0 to Gavin and a nice return on my £20ew.

It felt a little weird to be in our old shop again as nothings changed that much since the time we had it. The same old punters are still betting the same stakes on the same bets they did 20 years ago which is some feat as most of our punters were in their nineties then!

Over to Ayr for the 2.15 and we both thought it worth taking Long Run on as 2 miles seemed a little short for him. I think he’d probably have beaten the rest if the race had been over any distance from 5f - 4 miles such was his superior class and my £20 on Take the Breeze was probably the worst bet I made all day. Back to Newbury and the big race of the day. Ladbrokes were betting without the supposed good thing Denman and offering 5/1 Niche Market each way at 1/4 odds 1-2. I announced to the whole shop, that’s me, my brother, Interline Alan and KP (we used to have nicknames for all our regular customers. Some less flattering than others! The Bald Eagle, Gentleman Jim, Big Bad Bob, The Smellies were just a few) that this was as near an each way certainty as you could get. I had £40ew myself and from 3 fences home repeatedly cursed that I was an idiot not to have backed it at 25’s with Denman included. The profanities continued all the way up the run in and didn’t stop even when he was collared on the line as I then simply changed tack and started moaning that I couldn’t believe he had been caught. Some people are never happy. Oh well, at least it’s another second for my collection.

This seemed to set the tone for the next hour as I then proceeded to complete a full set of the top 3 punter frustrations…

Number 1) Your Horse Finishes Second
In the space of half an hour I had Mafeking (16/1 2nd), Kristofferson (12/1 2nd) and Autumn Blades (13/8 2nd).

 Number 2) Your horse finishes 5th in a big field Handicap
Having noted his run at Cheltenham last time out I had £20ew at 50/1 on Oldrik in the Totesport hurdle. Backing 5th in a big field handicap feels just as frustrating as backing a second win only and the fact that it was Mamlook that denied me a nice each way payout didn’t help my mood. The one consolation I’m taking from the race is that he ran a great trial for the Coral Cup. As soon as the weights are published I will be having a very tasty bet on Oldrik. He’s followed a similar path to a previous Hobbs Coral Cup winner Monkerhostin and should be a decent price.

Number 3) Your horse wins but you’ve changed your mind and backed something else 
In the 3.20 Warwick I was all set to back Piraya but convinced myself that he was here simply as a prep for the Racing Post Chase at Kempton in a fortnights time. So I went with the other Pipe runner in the race Tamarinbleu as I figured if the trainer was going to win the race it would be with this one. Piraya may still win the Racing Post Chase but one things for sure, Tamarinbleu wasn’t Pipe’s main hope for the Totesport 0800 221 221 Handicap Chase.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going…..straight to the cashpoint.

A few more losing bets to pass the time, a few spins on the virtual roulette, a coke, a packet of Mars Planets and it was time for the race I had been waiting all day for. The 4.40 Lingfield. Never mind anything that had happened during this afternoon I had the bet to get my head in front and bring Ladbrokes Goodrington branch to their knees. I’d waited over a month for Play Up Pompey to return to handicap company and here he was trading at 16/1, he was laid out for the race and Richard Kingscote was as strong a jockey you could hope for in the absence of the mighty Fallon. £100 ew at 16/1 was my bet and I was as confident of a pickup as Tiger Woods, John Terry and Ashley Cole on a Friday night out in Cardiff.

He travelled supremely, the jockey gave him a peach of a ride, the gaps appeared just at the right time and he stormed down the straight…BUT HE STILL GOT BEAT. You cannot be serious! I don’t believe it! Bloody second again! (If the manageress of the Ladbrokes is reading this then many apologies for throwing the pen and the foul language but I really, really can’t take many more of these seconds.)

That was about as much as I could take and after picking up the place money it was time to go. I’d finished in front but even while tucking into my sausage, chips and beans later that night at my other brothers house (and my place of residence for the weekend) I still wouldn’t let it go. I’m sure one day when all the planets have aligned, the Gods have finally forgiven me whatever sins I committed against and I’m down to my last few marbles then all my seconds will turn into winners but until such time, I’m destined to be the nearly man.

Oh well, at least in this day and age there’s always online poker! And so it was ,while watching The Bourne Identity and The Bourne Supremacy on some obscure Sky satellite channel, I battled my way through 3567 players in a $10 tournament. Unfortunately there were still 53 players still to conquer when I finally got knocked out at 3.30am on the Sunday but 54th place was worth a healthy $160 (or about $23 an hour). If I could guarantee $23 an hour playing poker everyday I’d never work again.

Valentines Day. I hate it. All my winnings went on flowers, cards and chocolates and for what? I’m not even allowed to play poker in the night, instead I have to watch some rom-com chick flick. Arrrrrrrrrgh! At least it’s only once a year.

Back home in Cardiff there weren’t any more bets on the horses during the week but I was back playing poker and knocking on the door for a big payout. I spent most of the week compiling the trends guides for Cheltenham and unearthing a few decent looking bets for the Festival. I’m as confident as I’ve ever been of my ante-post portfolio. Roll on Cheltenham I say.

We decided to head back down to Devon for the weekend and spent a couple of days with my mum. On Saturday I had £50 on Diktalina but covered myself with a £20 straight forecast on Me Voici to beat her. Another second but at least the right one did the business. My other bets were less successful with Ashkatar looking like he’s being laid out for some race soon (maybe the Imperial Cup), Planet of Sound falling and Le Beau Bai being firmly put in his place in the Blue Square Chase. We spent the afternoon as ‘grockles’ (tourists) in Paignton visiting the many gift shops and amusement arcades and having fish and chips on the sea front. Incidentally, in one of the arcades while my son was busy playing the 10p horse-racing game I had £5 in an Elvis fruit machine. I wasn’t too sure what was going on but after a few goes I hit the jackpot. Thinking I’d just won £25 I was quite chuffed with myself but as it turned out it was £250 and I was now VERY chuffed with myself. Long live the King!

Sunday we were back home and I was back on pokerstars. Half past 5 in the morning on Monday and I was still on pokerstars but after 6 1/2 hours of play I was finally knocked out in third place for a whopping $3897. With over $5k for the runner-up it was one time I woudn’t have minded being second but I’m certainly not complaining and my punting war chest is now ready for Cheltenham.

I spent most of Monday in bed catching up on my sleep but I finally surfaced mid afternoon to do the trends for The Racing Post Chase on Saturday. This is a very strong trends race and one horse stands out by a mile. I’ll give out the guide and the horse on Saturday but if you’ve already signed up for Cheltenham it’s ready for download NOW in the Members Area.

And that’s just about it. Play Up Pompey runs in a seller tomorrow at Lingfield but according to the official ratings he has it all to do. I’ll wait for him to return to handicap company before getting involved again. As soon as the Cheltenham handicap entries are announced (within the next week I think) I’ll be backing Oldrik in the Coral Cup, Diktalina in the Fred Winter and maybe a small bet on Ashkazar in the County hurdle. And tonight I’ll be back on my laptop playing poker. Life is good…

Gavin.