As I promised in my last post I’ve dug out the photocopy of my greatest punting win which occurred on the Hennessey Card 3 years ago. I’d never backed 5 winners in the same bet before this and I’ve never been able to do it again since either, although it’s not for the want of trying!

5 winners with my old chum Straw Bear the last of the bunch.

15/8 Saintsaire, 15/8 Inglis Drever, 10/1 State of Play, 10/3 Neptune Collonges and Evens Straw Bear for a win of just over £22,000

And the cheque…

One word of advice; If you are ever lucky enough to win a decent amount of money from a bet always take payment by cheque and photocopy it along with a copy of the betting slip. It’s tempting to be paid out in cash but for tax purposes it can be a nightmare. I know this from experience as when I had the betting shops a fair few years ago I won a sizeable amount on a bet and naively took payment in cash. The problems I had from the Tax Office and the investigations they undertook because of this were something I don’t ever want to go through again. A lesson learned the hard way!

Anyway, every year I try to repeat the bet and this year would have been no exception except they ran the race Saintsaire won on yesterday’s card. So I’ll take one from today’s 2.05 to make up the bet…

 1.35 Newbury: Big Bucks

2.05 Newbury:Pasco

2.40 Newbury:Killyglen

1.50 Newcastle: Binocular

3.25 Newcastle:Horner Woods

Festival trends….

The Free Trends for the Hennessey are available from the Members Area at …. http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/member.php

After both our last two big race selections finished 2nd we’ll be hoping it’s 3rd time lucky in the Hennessey.

Good luck,
Gavin.

Judging by the comments and emails I have received over the last 24 hours it would appear that you quite like reading about my punting exploits. And seeing as how I enjoy writing about them I’d like to make it a regular feature here at Nag3. So, time permitting, every Monday I’ll give you all a full recap of how the week went for me (for better or for worse, for richer or poorer).

Luckily for me the missus never reads the Blog, as she’s too busy buying stuff on Ebay or watching the soaps, so my punting wins and losses should remain a secret between you and I.

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In the comments Gordon asked how I stake my bets and whether there was any logic to it. To which I have to admit, not really!

Before I do explain my bet staking though I have to hold my hands up and say that I don’t have the discipline of a pro-punter. You’ve probably worked that out anyway reading through my bets but it’s the one thing I’ve never had and can’t seem to master. I’ve tried logging my bets, using a staking plan and betting only when I truly fancied something but it never lasts for long and I always end up back where I started, betting horses because I like them (Well Chief) or because they’ve done me a favour before (Straw Bear) or even because of their name (Priestley!). I’m certainly no Dave Nevison or Patrick Veitch and I definitely don’t have the bottle, or the funds, to be like Harry Findlay and punt thousands of pounds on odds on favourites but I like to think I do alright while betting at a level that I can afford. Of course like everyone else I have my losing runs (they always seem to last longer than winning runs don’t they?) but I’ve also had the good fortune to experience some big wins in my time (and some very near misses).

In fact if I can get the scanner on my printer to work I’ll show you my biggest ever win later in the week, which incidentally was on the Hennessey card 4 years ago. It will give hope to all of you out there backing in multiple bets and probably explain why I keep backing Straw Bear!

Anyway, back to my staking. Basically the amount depends solely on how much I fancy it, simple as that. An average bet for me is £50 or £25ew but it can go as low as £5ew and as high as £500. If I do a multiple bet I usually stake at £1 units although I sometimes do £5 Lucky 15’s or on the odd occassion even higher. Placepot unit stakes depend on the size of the Perm but tend to have a total stake of £50-£100.

If I go racing I stake my bets depending on the odds I can get which probably isn’t a good way of betting but makes life a lot easier. So if it’s 15/8 I’ll have £120 on, if it’s 2/1 I’ll have £100 and if it’s 9/4 it’s usually £80.

And finally, the price very rarely affects my stake. If I really fancy it I’ll have a £100 ew on it whether it’s 8/1, 12/1 or 50/1.

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Next, in answer to Colin’s comments.

You are more than welcome to post your comments or send me an email if you agree or disagree with anything I write, in fact I positively encourage it.

BUT, just like Colin has done, I would prefer them to be politely and intelligently constructed. We’re all adults here (I think) and debating these issues is healthy for the blog if done in a sensible fashion. I know that not everyone is going to agree with everything I write and often there is more than one side to any issue but to just insult me and tell me to **** off is something I can do without.

On that particular Wetherby post I personally don’t think that what I wrote was going too far and I stand by my comments. The other examples of course mis-management Colin quoted are valid points but on both of these occasions the courses were able to learn from their mistakes and rectify matters. Wetherby haven’t and they, along with the horses that lost their lives there, have paid the penalty. Keeping things in perspective, let’s remember that we are after all only talking about an average racecourse that only stages a handful of meaningful races each season. It’s not as if I said let’s turn Cheltenham into an all-weather track…..

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Good luck,
Gavin.

 Here’s an update on my last week or so.

Saturday 14th November….
The good news was that I had shaken off the dose of place-itus that had plagued me the previous week. Unfortunately the bad news was, I had now caught the much worse and more severe no-where-itus. Having really fancied a few horses at Cheltenham it was most disappointing to see them all beaten. The combination of heavy ground, the Cheltenham hill and poor picking meant that my betting slips with £20ew Trumpstoo, £30 Maljimar, £25ew Maucaillou and £20 ew Psi weren’t worth the paper they were written on. Add to that my ante-post £2oew I’m So Lucky (hah, I wish) an ill fated £72 Placepot perm and all in all it really was a bad day. My saving grace was the £40ew on Poquelin I had on Friday night with Betfred but it wasn’t enough to save the day and it meant no Indian takeaway from the Tropical Tandoori this week, nope we had to make do with the KFC Bargain Bucket.

Sunday 15th…
I had just two bets at Cheltenham on the Sunday and what a difference a day makes! A sentimental £40 on one of my all time favourite ‘chasers Well Chief and £25ew at 12/1 Medermit saw me claw back some off Saturdays losses. You have to wonder just how good Well Chief could have been if he hadn’t suffered so many injuries. Since winning the Arkle as a 5yo in 2004 he has run just 13 times and, when completing, has never finished outside the top 3. I would have been just as happy to see him win if I hadn’t backed him. Chuffing brilliant.

Monday 16th….
They say that those who bet on a Monday are either needy or greedy. I’m definitely not needy!
Short priced doubles aren’t usually my thing but I couldn’t see either of Alan King’s pair The Betchworth Kid or Bensalem getting beat so I had an £80 double on the two.  Two odds-on favourites who both looked in trouble over the last and suddenly I remembered why I don’t usually bet like this. I’m not sure what it is with me and backing at short prices but I thought my heart was going to explode as Bensalem fought gallantly to get back up and land the odds. I’ve had much bigger bets than this get beat without anywhere near the anxiety and it’s probably why I much prefer to back outsiders.

My nerves had just about settled by the time I got home only for my blood pressure to shoot throught the roof again. Reading through my emails I came across a particularly charming one from a blog reader…

‘With what you said about the track at wetherby the other week if I was you I should keep your gob well and truly shut and that my friend is said just as a reminder next time you have anything to say I suggest you get of (sic) your arse come up north and have a look for yourself arsehole ’

I have to admit that at times like these I wonder why I bother. If you want to read what I said about Wetherby that so incensed this reader you can do so here>>> http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/a-busy-week-starts-here/ 

Anyway, after responding to his email I received an even more vile reply and I have to say that it makes me wonder about the mentality of some people. It’s quite simple if you don’t like what I write - don’t read it. Cyberspace is plenty big enough to find something that does appeal to you.

Tuesday 17th….
Another ‘charming’ email from Mr Sokell started the day off on a bad note and it didn’t get much better when I missed backing Pocket Aces at Folkestone due to my daily stock delivery coming at the wrong time. Just to rub salt into the wound, I did manage to get my £40 bet on Swords in Southwell’s 3.50 just as the runners entered the stalls. Another 2nd for my collection. I reckon if every second I have ever backed in my punting life had finished 1st (and vice versa) I would be a very wealthy man.

Wednesday 18th…..
After Monday’s ordeal of backing an odds-on double I decided against doing the same with Khor Dubai and Calzaghe but, seeing the ease with which both managed to win, I doubt I would have suffered the same sort of heart failure this time. My dad, who is a big Liverpool fan, has been following Fernando Torres (the equine version) this Summer and was quite sweet on it’s chances in the last race at Kempton. Needless to say I didn’t take any notice of him until I received a text later that night to tell me he had just scored at 33/1. Bloody sentimental backers…

Thursday 19th….
A day of mixed fortunes with a couple of ante-post bets on the way to work and a couple of bets in the afternoon providing widely differing outcomes. First up was £20ew at 14’s with Hills on A New Story for the Becher Chase. As we all know now the race went from looking likely to be a really competitive Handicap Chase over the National Fences to a pathetic 8 runner renewal which didn’t include A New Story. I also had £10ew on Joe Bugner to be King of the Jungle but having changed from idol to idiot in 24 hours I’ve as much chance of collecting on that bet as Jordan getting back with Peter. Things took a turn for the better when my £80 on Sereth proved him to be the good thing he looked. Dave’s Dream and Caroles Legacy looked like a double that equated to buying money but I preferred to lose £30 on Wizard of Odds instead.

Friday 20th….
It’s not been my week for readers emails and after, what I thought, was a light hearted look at the I’m A Celebrity contestants I recieved another load of abuse from readers for ‘dissing their favourites. It was all done in jest but I apologise to any Jordan, Sam Fox or Colin and Justin fans I may have offended and I promise I won’t be making any further comments on the program. Sometimes I wonder why I bother. Again, I decided to give the blog a miss for  a while.

Back to the betting. Ascot has been a killer for me this Summer but it’s now back to being one of my favourite tracks as I enjoyed a fantastic weekend of small bets but big winners. First up was £10ew Inventor who had form every bit as good as Manyriverstocross on the flat but while that one went off at 1/2 Inventor was available at 14/1. In receipt of 10lb it’s one of those bets that makes you ask, why didn’t you have more on it? Pyschomodo was up next and he’s a horse we mentioned a few times in our Trends Guides last season. He had top weight but took a big drop in class and the rest, as they say, was history. Another £10ew at 14/1 and I was on a roll. £40 on Zabeel Palace and I was 3 from 3. I love Ascot.

Saturday 21st….
It was my turn to take Dylan and his best mate to the cinema in the morning but I managed to pass them both off to grandma straight after the film finished and I made the bookies just in time to get my bets on. This was probably the worst thing that happened all day as my first bet, £40 Pure Genius in the 12.55, was a very bad investment. £40 Zaynar and a stupid tenner each way on Straw Bear was good enough to return a profit in the 2.35 and following £20ew on another trends favourite of ours, Alberta’s Run, my love affair with Ascot was well and truly back on.

Things weren’t going so well at Haydock as my £30 Starluck and £20 Imperial Commnader bit the dust but a tenner each way on Kia Kaha in the last got me a little back. I was kicking myself for not backing Diamond Harry but you can’t do them all (although I do try!).

It was time to move over to the sand as sometimes you see a horse that simply can’t be out of the frame and is available at an great each way price. The 3.40 offered such an opportunity with Tranquil Tiger at 11/2. Yes Presvis looked a good thing and was the highest rated of all the runners but Tranquil Tiger was himself clear of the other 7 runners and was getting a generous 6lb from the favourite. He is also a very consisitent horse in this grade and my £60ew (took 5/1) looked like a bet to nothing. Another great ride from the young Mr Queally rounded off a highly satisfactory day.

Sunday 22nd….
I couldn’t get excited about the racing at Aintree after seeing the Becher Chase reduced to just 8 runners although I did have a tenner each way on A New Story in the Troytown Handicap over the Irish Sea just in case Michael Hourigan was pulling a fast one and he was going to win there instead. He wasn’t and it didn’t.

Any trainer or owner with a half-decent handicap chaser who ever moans about the level of prizemoney again should be made to answer why they didn’t run their horse in the Becher Chase. A hundred grand in prizemoney with 52k to the winner and run on softish ground. Surely you couldn’t get a better opportunity to race for some big money. 8 runners is disgraceful.

Monday 23rd…
Betting on a Monday is for the needy and greedy.
I had £50 on Whiteoak at 6/4 and £50 Calzaghe at 4/5.

Good luck,
Gavin.

While waiting for the better weekend racing fare I thought I’d take a fun look at the betting for ITV’s ‘I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here!’ The list of runners and riders….

Jimmy White (Best Odds 10/1)
He began the series as one of the favourites to win but after 3 days in the jungle he’s been spotted less times than Tony McCoy on a non-trier. His odds are expanding all the time, much like his waistline, and he’s got more chance of winning the 2010 World Snooker Championships than I’m a Celebrity.

Sam Fox (5/1)
She’s vying for favouritism now and it’s easy to see why as she has two very big assets. No, not those two! I meant, she comes across as a very nice person and she’ll always be Britain’s best loved Page 3 Girl. Only trouble is, those gentlemen ‘of a certain age’ who hold such an affection for her aren’t the type of people who ring up and vote on reality TV shows.

Katie Price A.K.A. Jordan (13/2)
Owes her whole career to Sam Fox and has been in the Celebrity Jungle before. Didn’t win it back then when she was popular so there’s no reason to think she can win it this time. In fact, judging by the public’s willingness to inflict misery and suffering on the inflated ‘model’ in one bushtucker trial after another it looks as if she’s presently about as popular as Thierry Henry in an Irish Theme Pub.

Sabrina Washington (40/1)
No, me neither. I think she must be there to make the other Z-list celebrities look high profile. From what I can gather she’s some sort of maths genius as when faced with the task of working out 12 times 12 she came up with her own complex algebraic formula to calculate the answer as 120. Working out her chances of winning is a little easier….Zero!

Kim Woodburn (7/1)
One half of TV’s grime-busting duo Kim and Aggie. I doubt she’ll find much dusting to do in the jungle but there’s always the washing up to keep her busy. Made excellent TV viewing with her comedy snoring but the highlight of the show so far was when she started laying into ‘publicity shy’ Jordan. This no nonsense approach is sure to prove popular and she should make the final 3. At 7/1 there’s even a chance we could take the bookies to the cleaners.

Colin and Justin (20/1 & 25/1)
The most annoying double act to come out of Scotland since The Krankies. If you thought it was hard working out which one was Ant and which one was Dec then don’t even start with these two irritants. They built their whole career on squabbling and bickering with each other while decorating other peoples houses and while we’ve yet to be subjected to that tiresome behaviour it can only be a matter of time.

George Hamilton (11/1)
The only genuine celebrity on the show and quite how ITV persuaded him to do this is anyone’s guess. This is a man who has lived the Hollywood lifestyle all his adult life and slept with countless famous leading ladies (including Elizabeth Taylor as we found out the other night) and now here he is  surrounded by a group of nobodies, some of which aren’t even household names in their own homes. Whatever they’re paying you George it isn’t enough! The perma-tanned Hollywood A-lister does look good for his age and has teeth whiter than Simon Cowell but, due to him being over 70 and ITV’s insurance policy he won’t get the chance to do many trials and on this show, that’s what wins votes. He’ll probably make the top 3 but I can’t see him winning.

Stuart Manning (33/1)
No, me neither. Thinks he can act. He can’t. Thinks himself good looking. He isn’t. Thinks he’s some kind of Ray Mears outdoor survival expert. He’s not. Thinks he can win the show. He won’t.

Lucy Benjamin (16/1)
Apparently she was once on Eastenders but is now forging a career by appearing on reality TV shows. Judging by the way she ran off and hid when Kim started taking Jordan to task she’s not one for confrontation which, while an admirable quality, won’t win her the title of ‘Queen of the Jungle’. I’d expect her to be voted off quite soon.

Gino DAcampo (3/1)
A stereo-typical Italian Celebrity Chef (if there is such a thing) he’s proved the most entertaining bloke so far. Unfortunately he’s now trading at around 3/1  and any value in his price has long gone. Trying to keep up this cheery demeanour for three weeks when you’re hungry, bored, missing home and doing all the cooking for your fellow campers may prove the hardest task of all. He may just struggle towards the end of the show.

Joe Bugner (33/1)
Much like the man himself the 33/1 on Bugner winning is massive. The Hungarian born, British fighter who now lives in Australia must have the best stories to tell (well, apart from George Hamilton maybe) and if the audience take to him like his fellow campers seemed to, calling him a legend and hanging on his every word, I think he’s real contender.  Any man who went 12 rounds with both Ali and Frasier isn’t going to be bothered by a few creepy crawlies (or Jordan) and I doubt there’s going to be many people wanting to argue with him! 

Obviously betting on these reality shows is fraught with danger as new contestants are drafted in without announcement and second guessing the voting public has always caused problems but I’m hoping my £10ew on Aussie Joe at 33/1 might give me a bit of fun.

Good luck,
Gavin.

5 Cheltenham questions from the weekend……

Is Hurricane Fly good enough to win the Champion Hurdle?….

I hope so. He was the best novice of last season and great things were expected from him this year but he was beaten fair and square on Sunday by what looks an improving horse. However, I wouldn’t be too keen to write him off just yet as the Champion Hurdle in March will be a totally different race to the one we saw yesterday. A small field, a slow early pace and heavy ground is about as far away from the likely conditions of the big race as you could get and about as far from the ideal conditions Hurricane Fly would require. Don’t throw those Ante-Post tickets away just yet!

Is Solwhit?….

Definitely. Solwhit forced himself into the Champion Hurdle reckoning with what was an eye catching performance. He too probably wasn’t suited by the slow early pace but he acquitted himself very well and showed an excellent turn of foot in the sticky ground to run out a convincing winner. He is now a winner of 6 of his 7 starts, including 3 straight Grade 1 races, and seems to be getting better the more he races. It will be interesting to see how he gets on in a rematch with Hurricane Fly on faster ground but what isn’t in doubt is his stamina. A winner over 2m 4f and on heavy ground the Cheltenham hill will hold no worries for him and he has to be high on anyone’s list for Cheltenham’s blue riband hurdle event.

Is Dunguib?…..

Probably not. The run of Hurricane Fly surely shows just how hard it is to go from being a top novice hurdler to a Champion Hurdle contender. Yes Dunguib was impressive again on Saturday but he’s still only had two runs over hurdles and hasn’t beaten a horse of any great merit just yet. At odds of 1/7 and 2/13 he has only won as he was expected to and I think connections will probably stick to the novice route this year, leaving any thoughts of the Champion Hurdle to the 2010/11 Season.

Has Master Minded gone backwards since his explosive 2008 Champion Chase win….

That’s probably a bit harsh on this great horse but he hasn’t exuded the same class and domination of the 2 milers since his blistering run in the 2008 Champion Chase. With new pretender on the block Big Zeb posting an impressive win first time out and old timer Well Chief getting his revenge on Master Minded yesterday I don’t think the top rated horse in Europe is going to have it all his own way this season. I would imagine the trainers of Planet of Sound, Forpadydeplasterer and Voy Por Ustedes will all be itching to have a crack at the Champ and they won’t be ducking any fights pre-Cheltenham with their charges. The 2 mile Chase Crown is now up for grabs.

Tataniano or Sizing Europe for the Arkle?….

With the senior 2 mile chasing division now looking wide open there’s also a lot to look forward to from the novice section with a whole host of high class recruits to the fencing game. With Somersby, Crack Away Jack, Cousin Vinny, Mikael de Haguenet and Osana just some of the big names from hurdling set to contest the Arkle we could be in for one helluva race. Two other good hurdlers who have already laid down their marker for top honours are Tataniano and Sizing Europe. Both posted impressive performances over the weekend and currently head the betting for the Arkle but given the quality of some of the horses waiting in the wings I wouldn’t be in any hurry to back either of them just yet. The one horse I’m eagerly awaiting to see over fences is the 2008 Supreme Novices Hurdle winner Captain Cee Bee, who beat none other than Binocular that day. He’s been out injured since breaking a blood vessel and pulling up at Aintree the same year but if he’s back to his best the 25/1 on offer could look very big come March…..

Good luck,
Gavin.

It’s a tricky card at Cheltenham tomorrow but one I’m itching to get stuck into. I’ve now done the trends for both the Juvenile hurdle that kicks off the card and the Paddy Power Chase and if you’ve signed up you can get them here - http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/guide/paddypower.pdf

Or you can still sign up for free here - http://www.festivaltrends.co.uk/amember/signup.php

I’m not interested in the 3 runner novice chase and so this just leaves 3 races to take a look at…..

1.55 He’s on my list of horses to follow and as he’s got his going at his favourite track I’ve got to go with MALJIMAR. The trip is really going to stretch him, as he always seems to die in the last 100 yards or so, but he deserves a big prize and his recent run should have him spot on for this. 8/1 looks about the right price for this one. Gallant Nuit doesn’t seem to like Cheltenham while Don’t Push It appears too high in the handicap and so, of the others I reckon Chelsea Harbour could prove the biggest danger to the selection. He was last seen on these shores falling early on in the National but he races here off a mark 11lb less than at Aintree and after 2 recent runs should be ready to mount a serious challenge.

3.10 The one that stands out a mile for me in this race is MAUCAILLOU. He ran 2nd in the conditional handicap on this card last year, where he found only Andytown too good, but what catches my eye is that he gave his rival 4lb that day. Tomorrow he is set to receive 17lb and I would hope that is enough to avenge his 2 1/2 length beating.  He also ran 3rd to Fair Along at Cheltenham in December, which shows he acts on the track, and with soft ground holding no fear for Maucaillou I make him a great each way bet at 12/1. Likely favourite Lie Forrit was all set to win on his re-appearance run at Aintree before unseating his rider but it’s worth noting that he now has an extra 9lb to carry than that day and he had been ridden along to get into a challenging position.

3.45 After his gallant run last weekend I thought PSI would be favourite for the finale on the card but it seems the Irish have the likely jolly in the shape of Vinnes Friend. Quite what has been going on with this horse is anyone’s guess as after a string of no-shows and a couple of pulled ups he suddenly romps home as the 7/2 favourite off the same rating as his previous run. He’s probably thrown in off his rating but I’m sticking with George Moore’s horse and at 7/1 he’ll do for me.

For the £100 to a Grand Challenge I’ll be doing;

TRUMPSTOO £1ew
MALJIMAR £1ew
BALLYFITZ £1ew
MAUCAILLOU £1ew
PSI £1ew

+ 10p ew Lucky 31.

I’ll also be doing a Placepot for 5p on the following perm…..

1-8 / 1-2-3 / 4-6 / 5-9-15 / 5-11 / 3-8 = 144 bets

Good luck,
Gavin.

Betting diary…

Judging by the response to my latest post it appears you quite enjoyed reading about my betting exploits last week so, to keep you all happy, I’m planning on doing it all again starting this weekend at Cheltenham. Hopefully I should be posting my trials and tribulations around about the 22nd November.

Speaking of Cheltenham this weekend, the free trends should be available shortly for the Paddy Power, Greatwood Handicap and the Juvenile Novices Hurdle. If I get time I’ll also include the 2m novice chase on the Sunday.

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£100 to a grand challenge….

With 6 Euro winners at the Breeders Cup, and over half of you deciding to go lower than 3.5, we’re now down to just 8 readers left after the latest round of the challenge.

I haven’t been doing much betting for the challenge recently due to time restraints and having to announce the bets before I place them but I’ll be back in action this weekend at Cheltenham. Hopefully I’ll also get some free time to resume the poker on the Racing Post site as I’m still some way off being able to release the free cash. But, worst case scenario is that the winner of the challenge will walk away with a couple of hundred pounds instead of a grand which hopefully should ensure someone gets a good Xmas.

It also means we need another challenge….

For the next round it’s simply a case of guessing whether the weight of the Hennessey winner will be ABOVE or BELOW 11 stone 1/2 pound. The 8 of you still left in have until 11am on the 28th November to get your guesses in to the normal email address. Good luck.

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10 to Follow….

Thanks for all the horses you’ve sent in. The list is now on the menu bar to the left under the heading  ‘Readers HTF’. It’s still not too late to have your choice added, just pop it in the comment box at the end of this post.

My own personal list has had 3 runners so far- Mamlook who was 2nd, Straw Bear (least said the better) and Vinmix de Bessy who won yesterday at 6/1.

The one that I’m really excited about though, is I’m So Lucky and he is scheduled to run in Saturday’s Paddy Power Chase. Everytime David Pipe’s is asked for his horses to follow for this season he mentions I’m So Lucky and today in the Racing Post he includes it in his celebrity Tote 10 to Follow entry. I reckon he’s plotting some big handicap win with this horse and given the record his father enjoyed in the Paddy Power (won it 7 times in 10 years 1996-2005) it could well be this Saturday. He looks incredibly well handicapped on his 7 length defeat by Planet of Sound, considering he was trying to give that horse 10lb, and if stablemate Our Vic stays in on Saturday, I’m So Lucky will be able to race off just 10-04.

Of course betting ante-post has it’s pitfalls, as I found out last week after tipping Laterly, but 20/1 (40/1 Betfair) looks great each way value. If David Pipe runs him, and I get the feeling that is the plan, he will definitely be shorter than that. I haven’t done the trends yet but I’m having my first real bet of the week on him. Good luck if you decide to follow me….

Gavin.

This is how I got on last week with my own personal fancies and bets.

Saturday: As you probably know I went up to Newmarket with Matt and a group of his horse syndicate members for a day at the races. Having had a 5 hour train journey to get there I’d had plenty of time to read the Racing Post and study the form. One of the things I had noted was that Brian Meehan had in previous years targeted the fillies maiden on the card with great success so obviously I backed his runner in the opening race (actually I got one of Matt’s group to place my bet as I was still eating my Bangers and Mash at the National Stud). She ran very well but could only manage 4th at 20/1.

As we entered the course the runners were just being loaded for the second but (un)luckily there was a bookmaker standing right by the entrance and I was able to get £20 at 14/1 on Henry Cecil’s filly to win the race. After watching her become agitated in the stalls, miss the break, run very green and finish 2nd last it didn’t get my day off to a great start.  To make matters worse I had failed to note that Meehan also had a runner in this 2nd division of the maiden and she had just obliged at 14/1. This left me wishing the train journey had been 6 hours and not 5 which would have given me more time to fully study the card!

But they say every cloud has a silver lining and so it turned out. When I bumped into David, who had taken the responsibility to get my wager on in the first, it transpired he too had failed to get there in time and returned my £40 stake. Two races down and only minus £20. Time to hit the bar.

In the 3rd race I had £80 at 15/8 on Anhar which was headed on the very last stride and looked very much to me like Frankie was outridden by Jimmy Fortune. Back to the bar.

Then to the bookies to have £40 Seven is my Number in the Ascot feature Chase. Another ‘great’ ride from Timmy Murphy, who decided to leave it until between the last two fences to make some sort of challenge from 5 lengths down, meant that I was now down £140. Thanks to his free system Matt had backed the winner at 33/1 which did little to improve my mood but at least it was his round. I fancied Secrecy in the next but having stayed in the bar too long I had missed any semblance of value on the horse and wasn’t going to take 7/4 about him. So I had £20ew on Marvo at 16’s and rued having had that last pint as he trailed Secrecy home by some distance in 7th. Uh oh, -£180 and time for another drink.

 Next up was a very confident selection in Shaweel and £120 at 13/8. Another 2nd and my confidence was shattered. It was time for a rethink (and another drink). I got a bit distracted by the conversation at the bar and missed placing my bet on Tamarinbleu in the Charlie Hall. As it loomed up 3 fences out I was beginning to think someone up there really had it in for me. I had laid Matt an even £20 on Deep Purple coming round the bend so at least I had won that. Well, until he somehow got up in the last few strides and had me cursing profusely. Losing £20 to Matt is like losing £200 to a bookie. Grrrrrrrr….

When the going gets tough the tough get going and so I went and had £60 on Timepiece (9/2). I love Henry Cecil. I’ve won more money backing his horses than all the other trainers put together. I love him….

Only minus £50 now and back to the bar. In an attempt to get my £20 back from Matt I laid him a score on Petitifour at 5/4. Job done. Winning £20 from Matt is like winning £200 from a bookie. Only £30 down now.

I didn’t really fancy anything in the next but simply watching a race when at the course has never been something I’ve mastered so I had a tenner each way on Perks. I didn’t get much of a run for my money but at least Frankie didn’t win that one either.

And so the grand finale and my nap of the day. I had been telling everyone that would listen (Matt didn’t) Bended Knee would win the last and having consumed a fair amount of alcohol during the afternoon my confidence in my selection was slightly more enhanced than it normally would be for a 16 runner handicap. Down in the betting ring I had £50ew at 16’s on Bended Knee and a £40 saver on Jordaura. Back at the bar before the race I then had a £1 exacta on those two with Julia Fielden’s horse and Fallons mount Edgeworth. Suprisingly the Tote weren’t doing a trifecta on the race so I had to dash to the bookies for a combination tricast before joining everyone in the stands to watch the race. Never in any doubt he led from start to finish and the only dampener for me was getting paid out at 1/5th the odds a place. In all the excitement I hadn’t realised that it was Jordaura closing him down and I had the Exacta ….which paid a measly £65.60. Make that two dampeners!

All in all a great day and a win of £940. Good times.

Sunday: Back to work and no time to get out for a bet though I did note in the morning that Green Manalishi looked like a nice bet in the 3.05. I was ‘overjoyed’ to see it had won at 10/3 and another winner had gotten away.

Monday: Even a great card at Kempton failed to inspire me and again I spent the day selling calendars well away from the betting shop. That was until I was on my way home and called in to back my horse in the Melbourne Cup. £20ew on Leica Ding which ran leica pig. I’m now officially not a fan of betting shops staying open late.

Tuesday: A good card at Exeter and I couldn’t resist a couple of bets. £20ew Mahogany Blaze in the feature race which finished 4th, of course, and £40 Dee Ee Williams which finished 2nd, of course! I also had £10ew Laterly at 50’s for the November Handicap which would become a non starter and lose my money, of course.

Wednesday: Having read the Racing Post on the train into work I was really surprised to see that Alexandros was forecast to start at 5/6 in a conditions race at Nottingham. I thought odds of 1/2 would be more likely which meant my gob was really smacked when I was able to get odds against. £80 at 5/4 was stealing money and I only wish I had had more cash on me. Unfortunately I lost £50 of it immediately when Straw Bear ran no race at all in the following race over at Warwick. What has happened to this once classy animal? I’d also had a tenner each way on a horse called Priestley in the 1.10 at Nottingham which as far as I know is still running.

Thursday: Looking through the Post on the train Rite of Passage caught my eye in the big handicap at Leopardstown. However I committed the cardinal sin of letting someone else sway my decision and having read the Racing Post’s experts analysis of his chance I didn’t back him. Another winner goes begging…..

Friday: At last the big Breeders Cup meeting was here and I spent the day going through the form and reading the Post in between serving customers. What wasn’t in doubt was that I would be backing Henry’s horses but I hadn’t made my mind up yet about the supporting races.

I had £80 on Father Time at PMU odds, £120 on Midday(PMU) and three £5ew doubles and a £5ew treble on those two plus Twice Over in the Classic (taking the 16/1). I also had £20 Man of Iron as a saver in the Marathon. After making my decision on my other bets it was simply a case of poor judgement - £50 on Lillie Langtry, £20ew Devil May Care, £50 Ventura and £40 Careless Jewel all being well beaten. I did though go to bed feeling very happy for Henry Cecil and Tom Queally. His ride on Midday would have won the Nag Award for best ride of the year if I hadn’t already given it to Tony Culhane. I doubt Mr Queally will be losing any sleep over that though.

Saturday: Was it really a week ago that I was on the train to Newmarket? Wow, time goes fast (well, faster than most of my horses anyway).

I had my punting boots well and truly on for this fantastic trans-atlantic day of wagering. Though things didn’t start off to well when I found out Pricewise had tipped my selection in the November handicap meaning I had to take 9/1 instead of 11/1 for my £50ew Hillview Boy. They were to get even worse when I missed getting my bet on Jordaura in the first at Doncaster as the race went off at 11.55am. I’m now officially not a fan of racing starting this early.

Unbeknown to me, overnight I had been struck down by the dreaded ‘placeitus’ and my afternoon’s bets were a sorry tale of close but no cigar. £40 at 9/1 Mamlook (2nd), £50ew 9/1 Hillview Boy (2nd), £40 The Package (3rd), £40 Mia’s Boy (2nd) and £20ew Webbow (5th). One bright spot on a dark day was that Betfred paid me out at the SP of 11/1 on Hillview Boy as it was one of his Guaranteed races. Good old Fred. I saw this as a good sign and so it was onto Santa Anita for the evening’s fare with my confidence restored…..

After getting home from work I made a quick dash into Penarth village  to put my bets on while I was waiting for my Indian takeaway to be prepared. Saturday night is takeaway night here at Nag Towers and the Tropical Tandori is one of the best Indian restaurants in South Wales. Lamb Biryiani for me and a vegetable masala for the missus. Yum Yum. Anyway I digress, my bets…..

£20ew Buzzword, £20ew Vale of York and a £2ew Double. £80 Gayego. £25ew Strike The Deal, £50ew Twice Over and a £5 Lucky 15 on Goldikova, Conduit, Mastercraftsman (what was Murtagh doing?), Rip Van Winkle.

I had to spend the early part of the night watching only brief portions of the racing channel as the missus was watching X Factor but I saw what I needed to see and basically I experienced every type of performance possible. There were some poor runs (Strike The Deal, Rip van Winkle), some strange runs (Mastercraftsman), some unlucky runs (Gayego), some not quite good enough runs (Twice Over), some high class runs (Goldikova), some brave runs (Conduit) and one ‘don’t know what the heck he was doing but what a fantastic run’ (Vale of York).

What a great night’s racing with two exceptional performances from two super fillies, Zenyatta & Goldikova.

The perfect end to the 2009 flat season. I only wish I’d been there……

———

My 10 to Follow last week seemed to spark a bit of interest amongst readers, and generated a few emails to boot, so on the suggestion of one of those contributors I’d like you the readers to give me your Horse to Follow for the 2009-10 NH Season.

Simply give me one horse that you think will win this Winter and leave it in the comments box below. Depending on how many we get I’ll open up a new page on the site and put your selections on it so we can track them through the year. Any horse will do - hurdler, chaser, novice, un-raced, handicapper, well kown, dark horse…..

You decide and let the rest of the readers know why you fancy it. Simples!

Good luck,
Gavin.

Nice one Henry and what a great ride from young Mr Queally. He showed great tactical awareness down the back straight to ensure that the leaders didn’t get too far away from Midday, he made his move at the right time and was always holding the fast finishing runner-up. Brilliant (and very profitable.) Let’s hope for more of the same on Twice Over.

Onto today and a very interesting, top class card that is full of Euro challengers. I really fancy the Euro’s to do well today and that’s where all my money will be going tonight. After Henry and Aiden did the business yesterday I think it’s the turn of Godolphin today and three horses of theirs I’ll be backing are…

Juvenile Turf: BUZZWORD (each way)
Juvenile: VALE OF YORK (each way)

and my NAP of the day

Sprint: GAYEGO

I’ll also be hoping that King Fallon can overcome the draw on STRIKE THE DEAL in the Turf Sprint. This horse did us a real favour on the trends at the backend of our season and I’m sticking with this late finisher who should be suited by the track.

And then the last 4 races in which it’s fancied horses all the way for me…

Turf Mile: GOLDIKOVA
Dirt Mile: MASTERCRAFTSMAN
Turf: CONDUIT
Classic: RIP VAN WINKLE

which should make a nice Lucky 15.

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look back at my punting week which has had its highs (Bended Knee) and its lows (Laterly being a Non Runner).

Must dash as it’s time for work…

Good luck,
Gavin.

Unfortunately due to work commitments I can’t be at Santa Anita this weekend but I’ll be there in spirit. I’ll be putting on my Breeders Cup Baseball Cap, donning the sun-glasses and turning the missus’s sun lamp up to maximum power. It’s nacho’s and cheese for the snacks and hot-dogs for tea all washed down with some Budweiser’s. Yeehah!

So what am I backing for the Breeders?

In the Marathon I’ll be backing Henry Cecil’s FATHER TIME and hoping Eddie Ahern can do a better job than ‘Frank’ Spencer did in the Leger. I also think O’Briens Man of Iron will run well for the Exacta.

In the Fillies and Mares I’ll give you the Festival Trends data for the race……

 1999 – 2008 PAST WINNERS

YEAR / COURSE/ FORM / HORSE / FLAT RUNS / AGE / WEIGHT / ODDS / TRAINER

2008 SANTA ANITA  5-13131 FOREVER TOGETHER (8) 4  8-11 11/2 J. SHEPHARD

2007 MONMOUTH PARK  12-2171 LAHUDOOD (11) 4 8-11 10/1 K. MCLAUGHLIN

2006 CHURCHILL DOWN   321512 OUIJA BOARD (20) 5 8-11 6/4F E. DUNLOP

2005 BELMONT PARK  -121311 INTERCONTINENTAL (21) 5 8-11 14/1 R. FRANKEL

2004 LONE STAR PARK   13-1113 OUIJA BOARD (7) 3 8-06 10/11F E. DUNLOP

2003 SANTA ANITA   53-3613 ISLINGTON (13) 4 8-11 10/3F SIR M. STOUTE

2002 ARLINGTON PARK   301-224 STARINE (22) 5 8-11 13/1 R. FRANKEL

2001 BELMONT PARK  -421122 BANKS HILL (7) 3 8-07 6/1 A. FABRE

2000 CHURCHILL DOWNS  116-112 PERFECT STING (7) 4 8-11 5/1 J. ORSENO

1999 GULFSTREAM PARK  46-151 SOARING SOFTLY (5) 4 8-11 18/5F J. TONER

AGE OF THE WINNER (WINS / PLACES / NUMBER OF RUNNERS)

3yo (2-5-41) 4yo (5-7-46) 5yo (3-5-28) 6yo (0-2-5) 7yo (0-0-1)

HOW THE FAVOURITES FARED

Favourites finishing position: 1–5–0–4–1–1–2–1–3–7 To £1 Level Stake: +£3.34
Position of winner in market: 1–2–4–7–1–1–4–1–4–3

PACE IN THE RACE – HOW THE FIRST THREE FINISHERS RACED

LED = 0 RACED PROMINENT = 12 MID-DIVISION = 5 HELP UP IN REAR = 13

AVERAGE JOE – THE AVERAGE PROFILE OF THE WINNER

COUNTRY OF ORIGIN

(RUNNERS WINNERS PLACED )

GB Bred 25 - 5 - 5
Irish Bred 20 - 1 - 4
French Bred 9 - 1 - 0
German Bred 4 - 0 - 1
USA Bred 57 -  3 - 8
CAN Bred 3 - 0 - 1
JPN Bred 1 - 0 - 0
SAF Bred 2 - 0 - 1

RECENT TRENDS 

Killer stat: 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least 1 of their last 2 runs

Age
All 10 winners were aged 3-5yo

Betting
All of the last 10 winners returned 14/1 or less
9 of the last 10 winners came from the top 4 in the betting

Class
All of the last 10 winners had won a Grade/Group 1 race

Distance
9 of the last 10 winners had won at 9f or further

Previous runs
All of the last 10 winners had run within the last 8 weeks
9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out (10/10 top 4)
All of the last 10 winners had run 3-7 times that season
All of the last 9 winners had run at least 7 times in their career

Interesting Fact: No frontrunner has even made the frame in the last 10 years.

The trends for the race make it very hard for me not to go with Henry’s horse again so it’s MIDDAY to win from Magical Fantasy.

For the supporting races I will go with;

Juvenile Fillies Turf: LILLIE LANGTRY
Juvenile Fillies: DEVIL MAY CARE
Fillies & Mares Sprint: VENTURA
Ladies Classic: CARELESS JEWEL

In fact I think I’ll also do 3 doubles and an each way treble on Henry’s 3 horses over the two days’s. That’s Father Time, Midday and Twice Over.

As always I’ll leave it to you as to whether you back them, lay them or ignore them!

————

 HORSE RACE PROFILES

I would imagine most of you have seen the HRP Guides that David Peat compiles as I gave his flat version out as a freebie at the end of September. If you haven’t and would like to take a look simply click here >>>> 2009 Flat Horse Race Profiles

That particular flat guide performed very well this Summer with his optimum horses producing 20 winners from 108 runners for a level stakes profit of over 45 points. That’s good tipping in anyone’s book.

The good news is that he has produced a NH version and it is now on sale for just £77…

http://www.horseprofiles.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=4&i=l0

So what do you get for your money? Quite a lot actually….

1. The National Hunt book
2. The AW book
(both books combined have over 200 profiles)
3. A daily report on runners from the books - showing their profiles for the days race
4. A weekly review - highlighting new horses to follow
5. Occassional big race reviews

All for less than £13 a month!

Which looks great value for a great product. Available here >>>> http://www.horseprofiles.co.uk/amember/go.php?r=4&i=l0

——

FRIDAY FUN

I was going to put up Arazi again winning the Breeders Cup Juvenile but instead I’ve gone with the unluckiest horse ever to run in a Breeders Cup race…..Dayjur. Darn shadows!

(Sorry about the quality of the video)

Good luck,
Gavin.

As with last years prestigous NAGS awards ceremony Aiden O’Brien, Henry Cecil, Kieren Fallon, Ryan Moore and Sir Michael Stoute were all notable by their absence. Hey ho, I went ahead with the presentations anyway and these were the results….

The Paul Carberry ‘One too Many’ Award.

Nominations were Sirvino, Fame and Glory and  Prince Siegfried

And the winner is…….. Fame and Glory for his performance in the Champion Stakes which was definitely one too many races for the season. Having been on the go since April and contesting some big races it was asking a lot for him to run again 13 days after his Arc run and it certainly showed as he laboured home in 6th as the 6/4 favourite.

The Kelloggs Rice Krispies ‘Morning Glory’ Award.

Nominations were Notice Given (Henry Cecil), Manifest (Henry Cecil) and Native Ruler (Henry Cecil)

And the winner is ALL OF THEM. I’m not sure why but Henry Cecil’s horses always seem to be hyped up more than any other trainer (and I fall for it every time). Racing Post gallops watcher Tony Elves is always highlighting these superstar Cecil horses based on morning workouts but invariably they never seem to do it on the racecourse. One day I’ll learn my lesson…

The John McCrirrick / Derek Thompson / Willie Carson Most Annoying Award.

The nominations are The Ayr Draw Bias, Folkestone Draw Bias, Kempton’s race to music, Ascot and Jamie Spencer. (And special mention to me for picking the wrong one out of two for our Festival Trends guides. Unless you subscribed to the guides you wouldn’t believe how many times it happened this flat season. Most annoying!)

And the winner is…..The Ayr Draw Bias. In the closest fought award of the night it goes to Ayr racecourse executives for producing one of the worst draw biases of recent times (not counting Folkestone). 3 days of racing completely ruined by a very significant advantage to a particular set of horses. I promise this is my last word on the subject!

The Harry Hindsight Best Bet of the Year Award.

Nominations are Ghanaati (1000 Guineas), Sea The Stars (2000 Guineas) and Darley Sun (The Cesarewitch)

And the winner is Sea The Stars. Given his amazing run of Group 1 wins after taking the 2000 Guineas the 8/1 he won at that day looks a very nice bet now!

The Harry Hindsight Worst Bet of the Year Award.

The nominations are Gladiatorus (Queen Anne Stakes), Fantasia (French 1000 Guineas) and Rainbow View (1000 Guineas)

All worthy nominations but the winner is……Gladiatorus who came to Royal Ascot as the world’s highest rated horse and left as an over hyped, one performance wonder horse. The ride he got that day was less than inspiring but, even still, it showed his early season Dubai run was a fluke.

The ‘Fairground Waltzers’ Worst Ride of the Season Award.

The nominations are Jamie Spencer (Father Time in the St Leger), Johhny Murtagh (Frozen Fire at Chester’s May Meeting), Hayley Turner (The Betchworth Kid in the Tote Ebor) and Ahmed Ajtebi (Gladiatorus at Royal Ascot)

And the winner is Jamie Spencer for his ride in the St Leger. Riding a horse without any stamina doubts in a staying race you’d think he’d want to get the horse running evenly over the last half of the race. But no, not ‘Frank’. He’d rather get the horse boxed in, stop and start numerous runs from the horse and then sprint for the finish. One word, idiot! The fact that he doesn’t ride him at the Breeders meeting says it all.

The ‘Nemesis at Alton Towers’ Best Ride of the Season Award.

The Nominations are Tom Queally (Midday / Nassau Stakes), Neil Brown (Sirvino / John Smiths Handicap) and Tony Culhane (Som Tala / Northumberland Plate)

And the winner is……. Tony Culhane. A great ride from the front around Newcastle as he set a slow early pace and then gradually quickened the tempo. He held enough in reserve to repel the late challenge of strong finishing Wells Lyrical for a well deserved victory.

The ‘Blow My Own Trumpet’ Best Blog Tip of the Season Award.

Nominations are Glowing Praise (Ascot), Dubai Dynamo (Kempton) and Cheveton (Haydock)

And the winner is…..Dubai Dynamo. Given his form before (and after) the race this tip gave me the most satisfaction as it was one of those days when everything fell into place nicely. My reasoning for picking him was sound, he was backed from 14’s into 8’s and he won very well indeed. It’s great when a plan comes together!

 The ‘Statement of the Bleeding Obvious’ Horse of the Year Award.

The nominations are Sea The Stars, Rip Van Winkle and Twice Over

And the winner is Twice Over…..Only joking! Of course it’s Sea The Stars. 6 runs in 6 months, 6 wins at Group 1 level. Enough said.

——

NOVEMBER HANDICAP

I haven’t done the trends yet for the race but glancing through the entries there was one horse towards the bottom of the weights that really caught my eye. I’ve mentioned him before and said that I’d like to see him in a mile and a half handicap on soft ground. Well, he looks likely to get those conditions on Saturday, he’s 25th in the weights so should get a run and he’s 50/1 with Ladbrokes.

LATERLY is the horse and I’ll be hoping he leads all the way on Saturday.

——–

I’ll be back tomorrow with a look at this weekends Breeders Cup action.

Good luck,
Gavin.

After the success of my flat 10 to follow which showed a profit of over 12pts (67 runs) it’s time for my NH version. If you want to check how those flat runners fared then simply click the Horses to Follow link on the left hand menu.

Here goes, starting off with some obvious (Irish) ones….

1) DUNGUIB6yo (Trainer: P. Fenton)
Not very inspiring I know but after a incredibly successful bumper campaign he made the transition to hurdling very nicely and looks set to go to the very top of the novice division. We probably won’t get rich backing him in novice hurdles but I can see him running up a nice sequence of wins hopefully culminating in Cheltenham glory.

2) HURRICANE FLY 5yo (Trainer W. Mullins)
A very exciting novice last season who missed the Cheltenham Festival due to injury. The form of his 10 length slamming of Go Native at Christmas and 7 length defeat of Kempes at the Punchestown Festival would surely have seen him win the novice hurdling crown last March. The Champion Hurdle will be his main objective this season but he’s another who could run up a string of victories on his way to Cheltenham.

3) MIKAEL D’ HAGUENET 5yo (Trainer: W. Mullins)
He’s won all his 6 starts since coming over from France and won 3 Grade 1’s including Cheltenham’s Ballymore Novice Hurdle. He then went on to defeat Cousin Vinny by 4 lengths at the Punchestown Festival and if he picks up where he left off last season he should prove a major player in all races at around 2 1/2 miles.

Next is an unraced novice recruit….

4) THE BETCHWORTH KID 4yo (Trainer: Alan King)
A 103 rated flat horse who had a fair season for Michael Bell this year. It could have been a lot better for him but for some dubious riding tactics that kept getting him boxed it, none more so than when beaten just 2 lengths in the Ebor. He’s supposed to have schooled well and looks an exciting recruit to the novice hurdle ranks.

Some handicap chasers…..

5) I’M SO LUCKY 7yo (Trainer: David Pipe)
At the start of last season he looked like making up into a very nice novice chaser and was only 7 lengths behind Planet of Sound (giving him 10lb!) at Newbury over Christmas. His form tailed off after that run and he ended the season with two very disappointing runs at the Cheltenham and Aintree festivals. If Pipe has got him back to his earlier form he is very well treated off a rating of 139 and a very big race awaits. Paddy Power maybe?

6) MALJIMAR 9yo (Trainer: Nick Williams)
Make no mistake, this is a very talented handicap chaser who should be able to pick up a nice prize this season. He loves Cheltenham and though the hill has found him out on his last two visits there, he has won a Grade 3 chase at the track before. Ideally he needs a bit of cut in the ground and about 3 miles.

7) HOLD EM7yo (Trainer: W. Goldsworthy)
A very smart hurdler who looked like making a very smart chaser in his first few runs over fences. He managed a fine 4th in the Racing Post Chase at Kempton before pulling up in the Sun Alliance Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. After an easy win in a poor novice chase at Uttoxter he spent the Summer racing in the big Market Rasen handicaps but didn’t seem to appreciate the firm ground. His last two runs have been more encouraging and he should bag a handicap or two this season on soft ground.

8] VINMIX DE BESSY 8yo (Trainer: G. Moore)
This horse is in the list because I am convinced he will win a 2 mile handicap at Sandown this season. After nearly a year off the track he made his reappearance in January off a rating of 130 but a bad run then and a few subsequent poor efforts have seen his rating drop to 123. His last run showed signs of encouragement and I’ll be scanning the entries for Sandown’s forthcoming meetings to make sure I don’t miss him.

A second season chaser….

9) STRAW BEAR 8yo (Trainer: N. Gifford)
He was a serial disappointer (is that a word? probably not) over hurdles and his chase career hasn’t got off to a great start but there was a lot ot like about his run in the Cheltenham Novice Handicap, won by Chapoturgeon, when he didn’t quite see out the 2m5f trip. It makes me think that he is well handicapped and he should be able to pick up a few races over fences this year. 2 miles on a flat track in softish conditions would be ideal. Oh, and one final thing is that he remains a novice for this season.

And of course, last but not least….

10) MAMLOOK 5yo (Trainer: D. Pipe)
Regular readers will know my affection for this horse and after his gallant second in the Cesarewitch I’m going to stick with him and hope he can bag the big race he deserves. At Cheltenham last March when racing in the Martin Pipe handicap he came there to win the race only to be nearly brought down by another runner turning for home. He never seems to have any luck but always runs his heart out. I’m not sure what trip he needs over hurdles, and apparently neither does his trainer, but I’ll be backing him every time he runs in the hope his luck can change.

And there you have them, my 10 to follow for the National Hunt Season. Good luck if you decide to back any of them.

Gavin.

First up is a quick round-up of the weekend where I was lucky enough to get some time off and join Matt and some of his readers for a day out in Newmarket. Although I wasn’t able to make it in time for the morning trip to the gallops and the stable tour, by all accounts Julia (Fielden) and John were fantastic hosts and made sure everyone had a great time.

I did get there in time to visit the National Stud though and after a whistle stop tour of the grounds we had dinner there before setting off for the track and an afternoon of punting and drinking.

What made it an even more amazing day was that everyone in the party seemed to have a winning day too. With Matt’s latest free racing system throwing up the 33/1 winner of the feature Ascot chase, Frankie having a well backed winner in the handicap, Henry Cecil having a 4/1 winner and me telling all who would listen that Bended Knee would win the last it was hard not to make money! I’m really looking forward to doing it all again in the Spring.

———–

5 things I’ve learnt in the last few days…

It’s time to read the last rites to Wetherby racetrack….

Plenty has been written about Wetherby over the last few months as it has come under the spotlight for the large number of fatalities at the Yorkshire course and events on Saturday have done little to repair it’s reputation. Although it produced one of the best finishes of the day it has to be said that the 5 runner Charlie Hall chase was one of the worst renewals of the race for many a year and this has to be contributed to trainers not wishing to risk their stable stars at the track. To make matters worse for Wetherby Barry Geraghty took the wrong course on well fancied, and likely winner, My Petra as the runners navigated their way around a badly laid out part of the track. A few cones or a tape marking out the correct course would have easily avoided such a situation. And with yet another fatality at the track to add to the course executives worries the prospect of turning Wetherby into another all weather flat track must now look even more tempting.

Godolphin don’t want this flat season to end…

Having suffered a downturn in their fortunes over the past few seasons and having to play second fiddle to the mighty Coolmore operation it’s been something of a rebirth this Summer for the boys in blue. The signs of a Godolphin resurgence were there at the beginning of the year with some very good performers and performances at the Dubai World Cup meeting but again they seemed to struggle over the first few months of our domestic season. Then suddenly it all seemed to change and the last few months have seen them hit top form, especially in the 2yo department. They have had an amazing 68 2yo winners this flat season at a strike rate of 30% and a level stakes profit of £22.41. On the All Weather it’s been even more incredible with 35 winners at a 46% strike rate and a £48.36 level stakes profit.

And the last 14 days has seen them train an astonishing 25 winners from 62 runners (40%). There are still plenty of big races left worldwide this year and given the stable form at the moment you’d have to think that they’ll be picking up quite a few of them - starting this weekend at Santa Anita?

On-course bookies aren’t doing themselves any favours….

Having had 20 years experience of bookmaking I’ve always had a lot sympathy with independent traders trying to earn a living at the game. It’s not easy and one of the most annoying phrases spouted by people is ‘you never see a poor bookie’. Believe me there are plenty of them out there! However my patience and sympathy for the independent bookie was severely tested on Saturday when two incidents at Newmarket left me slightly peeved………Firstly, I placed a win bet on Anhar in the 3rd race and on checking my ticket realised that the clerk had made an error by making it an each way bet. Anhar ran well but got caught on the line meaning that theoretically my ticket was a winner. Being the honest chap I am I went to tell the bookmaker of his error and that obviously I wouldn’t be collecting the ‘winnings’. To my surprise he threatened me with calling the Ring Inspector! No thanks for pointing out their mistake just a nasty threat as if it was me, trying to con him. I only wished I backed my big fancy in the last with him, now that would have been justice.
Which is where my second gripe occurred. I had a nice each-way bet on Bended Knee in the finale but my mood was dampened somewhat by the outrageous each way terms of the bookie I placed the wager with. A 16 runner handicap and he paid me out at 1/5th the odds. Come racing? With these kind of practices going on I’m not surprised people prefer to stay at home and back online. Any bookmaker standing at a track and offering these kind of place terms should have their licence revoked.

Henry’s gotta horse……

Of all the winners on Saturday I was most taken by Henry Cecil’s Timepiece who showed a lot of guts to get back up after being headed a furlong out. She battled on very well to get the better of Nurture by a nose with over 4 lengths back to the third horse. It’s worth noting that Cecil sent out Passage of Time to win this race a few years ago and that Midday ran 4th in it last year. I would imagine that Timepiece is very close to the top of the pecking order in the filly division at Warren Place and 33/1 for next years Oaks doesn’t look that bad a bet at the moment.

Selling calendars is profitable but I’d rather be jetsetting…..

My Winter job for the Calendar Club is well underway now, and although I managed to sneak a day off on Saturday to go to Newmarket, it’s such a shame that all the good foreign racing takes place at this time of the year as I can’t get any time off. Having missed the trip with Matt to last month’s Arc meeting I’m now set to miss joining him at the Breeders Cup meeting this week. The worst part of it all for me is the promiximity of Santa Anita to Vegas. A few days in Sin city followed by the Breeders Cup sounds like a perfect holiday to me…..I’m jealous as hell but safe trip and good luck mate!

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MELBOURNE CUP

‘The race that stops a nation’ takes place in the early hours of tomorrow morning and though I won’t be up watching it live I will be recording it for later viewing over a bowl of snap crackle and pop.

I’ve had a good look through the form for the race, studied a few video’s on youtube and had regular email updates from down under via a blog reader (thanks very much Leo). The two favourites, Viewed and Alcopop, are a bit too short for me to get excited about and I’m inclined to look further down the betting lists to try and find a nice outsider (or two)….

The Racing Post experts all seem to agree that a low numbered stall is needed but if you look back over the last 15 or so years there doesn’t seem to be any advantage, or disadvantage, to where you are drawn. Stalls 21 (twice) and 22 have won very recently as have 14,15,16 and 17. A better trend is to look at the record of overseas challengers where you see that only Dermot Weld (twice) has managed to bring the Cup back to Europe. There have also been a Japanese and New Zealand winner since 1992 but the rest were all trained in Australia.

The first one of interest to me is Fiumicino. Though his recent form doesn’t look that good it’s his run back in April that catches the eye. Running off level weights in the BMW cup he beat both Viewed (last years winner and this years favourite) and Master O’Reilly, who went off favourite for the 2007 Melbourne Cup. A repeat of that run will surely put him in the shake-up and at 66/1 appeals as an attractive longshot.

There are a couple of ex-European horses that may be familiar and they are both decent prices. Warringah used to run for Sir Michael Stoute but was bought by his current connections with the sole purpose of winning this race. He is reported to have acclimatised well and apparently his preperation for the race has gone to plan with Sir Michael giving his new trainer plenty of guidance. He’s 28/1 and though he was a bit one-paced when racing over here it’s not difficult to see him making the frame. The other ex-euro horse is Changingoftheguard who you may remember finished an unlucky 2nd in the Ebor for Aiden O’Brien. He was outclassed subsequently in the Leger but has got in here off a real racing weight of just 8 stone. 3 time race winner Glen Boss takes the ride and he would have been my selection were it not for the fact that he has suffered a slight training setback.

So the search continues and having viewed Saturday’s Mackinnon trial I nearly went with Newport as he was blatantly not trying then and surely must have been using the race to get fully fit for this. 40/1 could still tempt me yet but the one I’m siding with is LEICA DINGwho sits at the bottom of the weights. She took the Geelong Cup last time out and that has been the best trial for the Melbourne Cup in recent years. She stays, she’s in form, she’s got a nice racing weight and she’s my each way bet at 20/1.

Each Way Selection: LEICA DING

Good luck,
Gavin.