Things have been a bit busy at Nag towers this week hence the sporadic postings and limited recent content. Work has been very stressful, busy and ultimately time comsuming (plus being half term I’ve also had a 6yo to try and entertain) but the good news is that I seem to have got things under control now and I’m looking forward to a bit more spare time over the coming weeks to concentrate on this ‘ere blog.
Having said that, I won’t actually be around this weekend as I’m joining Matt and his horse syndicate members for a day out in Newmarket tomorrow. It’s an early start for me as the train leaves Cardiff at 6.02 am and doesn’t get me back until early the next morning which leaves me no time to post Saturday and, as I’m sure there will also be a few drinks consumed throughout the day, I doubt I’ll be able to string a sentence together for any meaningful Sunday post either.
But I’ve got some big plans for next week and here’s what you can look forward to then…….
Monday: 5 things I’ve learnt over the last fortnight + a look at the Melbourne Cup Tuesday: Gavin’s 10 Horses to follow for this NH season Wednesday: An advanced look at the Breeders Cup Thursday: A look back over the Flat season with the presentation of this years ‘Nags’ Friday: The Breeders Cup Day 1 + Friday fun Saturday: The Breeders Cup Day 2 Sunday: A look back at my punting week with a blow by blow account of my ups and downs.
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Don’t forget the first FREE NH trends guide is ready for download from the Members Area….
For all readers who took advantage of my NH Festival Trends Free Offer I have great pleasure in announcing the first guide is now available for download from the Members Area.
The first Guide is for the Charlie Hall Chase and having gone through the 11 entries I’ve ended up siding with, what looks at this stage, a very strong trends fancy. There’s also another runner in the race with an equally strong trends profile who is available at a decent price.
The choice is yours as to which one you back or you may even decide to use the trends to come up with your own selection. The best of luck whatever you decide to do.
Please note though that the 11 horses are the 5 day entries and they may not all run.
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CARLING CUP
Peterborough play Blackburn tonight in the Carling Cup and I’ll be having a fiver (of the £100 to a grand challenge kitty) on the Posh to knock-out their Premiership opponents at Coral’s very generous 5/1. I’ll also have a £1 at 14/1 on George Boyd to be the first scorer.
Blackburn have apparently been ravaged by swine flu this last week and are struggling to field a full strength side. They also have a big game against Man United on Saturday and I’m hoping they will rest their star players in the hope of having them fit for this encounter. After a 5-0 drubbing last weekend confidence will be very low and we couldn’t have asked for a better time to be playing them. If it was at London Road I’d be very confident of an upset….Come on the Posh!
It’s taken a bit longer than I thought to get around to writing up the second part of my look at in-running betting but here it is. Better late than never. And if you missed the first part you can read it by scrolling down through the last few posts or by clicking here>>>>PART 1
I’ve already covered the basics and if you’ve not been put off and want to try your hand at the highly volatile world of in-running trading here’s a more advanced look at the strategies involved along with a few ideas on how to get an edge over your fellow traders………
ADVANCED STRATEGIES
Although there are some bookmakers who offer limited in-running betting markets to their customers you do tend to find the majority of in-running betting is done on the exchanges. Here you are basically betting against another trader and pitting your opinion against theirs.
And it’s in this basic understanding of how the exchanges work that lies the key to successful in-running trading. You need to find an edge, an advantage over your fellow traders and you need to be quick enough to take advantage of it.
In a horse race things happen so fast that you need to be ready to strike as soon as this advantage becomes available. Ideally you should open a betting box for each horse as soon as the race starts and be ready to trade in one click if you wish to bet a particular runner (but remember to get out quick if your odds aren’t matched immediately).
You also need to be aware that you are betting on events that have already taken place (albeit a second or two ago) and therefore someone else may know something you do not! Watching the race via satellite gives a slight delay in the transmission of ‘live’ pictures and what you see isn’t actually ‘as it happens’.You can of course use this to your advantage and be the one who is in the know by visiting the track to watch the racing. If you have an eye for watching the horses and quick enough fingers it’s possible to lay those fallers before everyone else watching on TV get the chance to cancel their bets.
Now as I said in Part 1 I’m no expert at in-running betting, and this may or may not be true, but I do remember reading once that the order in which Betfair matches peoples bets are by allocating those seeking the smallest odds the biggest price and vice versa when matching lay bets. So if you submit a request to back a horse at 1.5 and someone at the same time asks for 1.6 on that same horse you would be matched first with the highest odds available. It certainly sounds feasible and it’s worth remembering when trying to hoover up somebody else’s rick in the market.
Okay, so how do we go about finding an edge?
- Do your homework and be prepared
If you’re going to be serious about in-running betting then you need to put in the hours studying to find an edge or at least to have the same knowledge as all the other traders do.
With the 60 racecourses throughout Great Britain all providing a different test for a horse’s ability it’s important to know the configuration of the track you’re intending to bet at and how it could affect your horse’s chances. A horse that is 10 lengths clear over the final fence at Taunton is a totally different prospect to one that is 10 lengths clear jumping the last at Cartmel. Why so? Well, if you look at the distance between the last obstacle and the finishing line at the two courses you’ll see that while it’s only 150 yards at Taunton, over at Cartmel the horses still have another 4 furlongs to race before they reach the Winning Post. And a lot can happen in 4 furlongs! While 1/10 might be a good bet at the Somerset track you may need to re-consider those odds when betting further North in Cumbria.
Or how about the direction of the track, is it left-handed or right? Are there any runners that hang badly going a certain way? Does this course favour front runners? e.g. Newton Abbot / Chester or those that are held up? e.g. Epsom, Newmarket. Is there a hill to climb at the end of the race? What’s the going?
All these things need to be considered and while, of course, there are plenty of other variables to add into the mix, it does show the type of in-depth knowledge you need to bring to the table before getting seriously involved with in-running trading.
- DRAW BIAS
A subject that has cropped up a number of times in recent posts and one that can be used to your advantage when betting in-running.
If there are a number of sprints on a race-card or at a particular meeting it’s important to study the way these races are run. Sometimes you will see that when the field splits into two groups that the advantage may change from the near side to the far side (or vice versa) during the course of a race. Armed with this knowledge you can back or lay runners at various times during a later race as the draw bias switches over from one side to the other (and sometimes back again).
RUNNING STYLES
It’s important to realise that not all horses run the same way. Some need to run from the front while others need to be covered up at the back of the field and the beauty of in-running betting is that you can see just how your horse is going to run straight after the stalls have opened. Before betting in-running became available you paid your money and took your chance but now if you want to back a front runner you can actually wait and see what the jockey intends to do. If he decides to restrain it then you have the option of waiting for another day but if he gets an early front running postition then it’s time to get your money on. Look at Som Talaearlier in the season, I wrote quite a few times in posts that when he was allowed to front run he’d be worth backing and after being held up in both the Chester Cup and Ascot Stakes he was finally given the lead in the Northumberland Plate and led all the way for a 16/1 victory.
Some horses like big fields while others just don’t like crowds and prefer fewer runners. An example of this is Thebes who always seems to run, and is usually quite well fancied, in these big field handicaps. He races up with the pace and usually trades at or below his starting price for most of the race BUT his form figures when racing in fields of more than 20 runners reads 22nd, 10th, 22nd, 27th, 18th, 13th, 16th, 12th. He just doesn’t seem to like being crowded at the business end of the race andif you want further proof take a look at his form figures when racing in fields of less than 10 runners - 21171231. The information is out there but you may have to look deep to find it.
You also need to look out for the horses who seem to travel easily in their races but find little when under pressure or those that are vigorously ridden throughtout a race but keep responding to the riders urgings.
Jockey styles are the same. We’ve all seen McCoy and Fallon pushing hard on horses from a long way out but still win and conversely we’ve all seen Paul Carberry and Timmy Murphy sit motionless on a horse only to find little when push comes to shove and get beat.
These are just a few of the things you should be looking at if you’re think of giving in running trading a go. It isn’t easy but with a bit of hard work and by doing some research it can be a very profitable way of betting.
And remember the 3 key points you need to make it a profitable exercise: Research, Speed and Concentration.
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NH FESTIVAL TRENDS
We’ve got our first FREE NH guide out this weekend and it’s for the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. Once the 24 hour declarations are known we’ll put the finishing touches to the data andget it ready for download in the Members Area. This should be around 7pm on Friday.
I’ll send an email reminder to all subscribers as soon as it’s available.
For those of you who don’t subscribe to the Flat Festival Trends you’ll be glad to know that we’ve had a fairly good last two weeks with 14/1 winner Twice Over and 4/1 High Heeled on Saturday. We were also a bit unlucky with our Horris Hill selection (and top rated horse) Pleasant Day who just got touched off on the line at 16/1. Let’s hope we can keep it going now we revert back over the jumps….
Sorry for the lack of posts this week but it’s all been a bit hectic at work this week as Cardiff unveiled its new £675 million shopping centre on Thursday. With the huge local, and not so local, interest in the project and extended opening hours I’ve hardly been anywhere near my laptop for the last few days. I have to say that it’s one of the nicest shopping centres I’ve ever seen and judging by the number of people in Cardiff over the last two days there’s not much of a recession going on here in South Wales.
Which means I can report that Calendar sales are going well and I’ve got some money to have a punt with today…
Aintree has a great looking card and one horse that I will be backing in the 2.15 is Howard Johnson’s Tidal Bay. By his standards, last season’s performances were a little disappointing but the trainer reports him back in top form and with the stable absolutely flying he can take advantage of what looks an attractive handicap mark.
Newbury has a typically tough end of season card and I should know better than get involved (especially in a fillies race) but the 9/2 about Henry Cecil’s Jaqueline Quest is just enough to tempt me into a wager. She beat a poor field at Chester to win her maiden but the way she went about her business was breathtaking and though this is a huge step up in class she looks ready to do herself justice.
Last but definitely not least, on the flat over at Doncaster there’s a horse I really fancied last time out but, like quite a few horses before her, she didn’t seem to handle Epsom and slipped after travelling about a furlong. She managed to get back into contention before hanging across the track and then got squeezed up. She finished last of 6 but was only beaten 3 and a bit lengths. What it does mean is that we have a great price about a horse that can be excused her last run. She’s well thought of in this shrewd yard and off near bottom weight must go well on a more suitable course.
……It’s a tough contest but take the 25’s each way on Dylanesque in the 2.15and pay for your weekend!
Now before I start I must warn everyone that I am no expert at In-Running betting and I have done very little of it over the years. I’ve read a lot of articles on the subject and have watched many, many Betfair markets in this time but I’ve never seriously delved into the in-running trading business.
I was working on a system whereby you would seek to lay every runner in a race at odds-on (and hope to get matched on at least two to guarantee a profit) but although the early results were good in the end it was all very hit and miss. When I get a bit more time I may try again and see what type of race it works best on but, until then, here’s a bit about what I’ve learnt on the subject…..
For the purposes of this post I will be concentrating solely on horse-racing in-running betting. I’m sure there are a lot of serious traders out there reading this (please feel free to post any tips/comments) but they’ll have to excuse me as I’m going to start with the basics for the benefit of those readers who have yet to try in-running betting. There’s quite a bit to get through so I’ll split it into three sections over two posts (Introduction, Beginners tips and Advanced strategies).
An introduction to In-Running betting…..
Many years ago (well not that many actually) the only in-running betting on offer was when you were lucky enough to be at the track and a bookmaker would shout out ‘6/4 the favourite’ when the beast was tailed off and about to be pulled up. Surprisingly they never seemed to get too many takers! How things have changed though because, with the advent of the betting exchanges, we now have in-running betting on just about every race and sporting event taking place around the globe and that cry of ‘6/4 the favourite’ is most likely to be 1000/1 now.
Put simply, in-running trading is backing or laying a selection once the race/event has begun. The odds are adjusted as the race begins and unfolds until betting ends as the race finishes (or shortly before it ends if the result is a formality).
The high street bookmakers have all latched on to this form of betting and offer it in their shops on many events but the vast majority of all in-running trading is done on the exchanges (i.e. Betfair) with punters pitting their skills against one another. Make no mistake, this is a skill and you will need to make split second judgements on many occasions if you are to be successful.
Typically the odds on offer will range from 1/100 up to 1000/1 and though you may think a 1/100 shot is a near certainty the history of Betfair is littered with stories where such ‘certainties’ have been turned over and proved extremely costly to those that have bet these odds. The truth is they do get beat and if you decide that backing these short priced ‘good things’ is the way you wish to trade then remember you will need a very good strike rate to compensate for one of these unexpected eventualities.
There are plenty of different types of in-running traders varying from those that prefer to take the very short odds to those that are always on the lookout for a massive priced upset. You also get those that rely on their own race reading skills to determine which horse represents good value at any particular stage of a race and back there judgements accordingly either by laying those that don’t look like winning or backing those that do. Another type of trader is that which seeks simply to take a small profit (or green up) by backing a horse at certain odds then laying it back at shorter or vice versa e.g. backing a horse who travels well at 2/1 and laying it at evens.
If it sounds complicated it’s probably because it is and before you start out in this highly volatile field of betting you really need to know what you’re doing. You also need 100% concentration with no distractions. That means no reading the Racing Post or making a cup of tea in the middle of the race or ringing the chinese takeaway for your supper or playing on your Nintendo DS. Focus is the key!
5 Things a Beginner should know before starting In-Running Trading….
1. Be aware of any time delay on the pictures you are watching. Coverage that may be broadcast as ‘live’ can be a couple of seconds behind real time meaning that the horse that you’re backing as it cruises to the last fence 10 lengths clear may have in fact already fallen. Satellite, Cable and Internet coverage have the worst delay with Terrestial TV pictures probably the nearest to Live as you can get (without actually being there).
2. Trust no-one but yourself. Bet only by your own view of proceedings. No matter how great you consider the race commentator to be, forget what they are telling you is happening and use your own judgement. Your best bet is to turn off the sound and rely solely on what you see with your own eyes.
3. Learn the colours. If you’veturned off the sound then the best way to distinguish between the horses is by the jockey’s colours. Therefore you need to know what horse has what colours and most importantly - are there any colour changes?
4. Bet or Kill. With things happening so fast in an in-running market it is essential that if your bet isn’t matched immediately then you have to cancel it (or ‘kill’ it) straight away. What looks like great odds one second can be a terrible trade the next and you better believe that there’s always someone willing to take / lay your bet if you’ve got the odds wrong. Bettor beware!
5. It’s not easy. In running betting is very volatile and happens at great speed so start off small and build up your stakes only when you become more experienced. Take notes, read up on horses running styles, know the courses & going and study in-running markets to see just how quickly they can change during the course of a race.
Part 2 on Tuesday as I won’t be around tomorrow…
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LONG RANGE ANTE-POST FANCY
You’re all probably sick of me banging on about the draw at Ayr last month but having seen the result of the Rockfel on Saturday it just underlines what I was saying at the time. The race at Ayr that really got my goat was the Firth of Clyde where Distinctive enjoyed a massive advantage with the draw when running out a 3 and a bit length winner. Astrophysical Jet finished in third and also ran on the far side just in front of my big fancy (and also my biggest bet of this flat season), Beyond Desire who had the handicap of racing up the stands rail.
Music Show was also racing on the unfavoured near side and despite being fancied as the 2nd favourite for the race she could never land a blow and finished 10th of the 13 runners. She showed that race to be the farce it was when yesterday she reversed form in no uncertain terms with both Distinctive and Astrophysical Jet.
Which in a roundabout sort of way might make the Betfair 99/1 on offer about Beyond Desire look a interesting bet for next season’s 1000 Guineas. It’s a long way away but that doesn’t look the worst 99/1 shot ever and I’ve had enough on to pay for a couple of weeks in Vegas should she do the business next May. That should give me something to dream about through the Winter….
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£100 to a Grand Challenge
The last round only managed to trip 3 of you up so we’re now down to 15 remaining.
The next challenge will be to decide how many European trained winners will win over the 2 days of the Breeders Cup meeting (6th and 7th November). I’ll set the mark at 3.5 winners and you’ll need to send MORE or LESS depending on your opinion.
Please note:Only Godolphin horses trained by Saeed Bin Suroor will count for the Euro team.
Entries to the usual email address by midnight on the 5th November.
Just a brief post this morning as I’m off to the cinema with my son and his friend to see UP. We’re taking in the early morning performance as I want to get back in time for this afternoon’s racing.
If you didn’t already know it’s Champions Day at Newmarket today and a star studded cast of juveniles, handicappers and Group race performers are set to take to the stage. I’ve done the 6 featured races in our Festival Trends Guide where we’ve highlighted a few outsiders for the day including in the big handicap The Cesarewitch.
If you’re not already a member you can get a copy of the 6 race guide, for just £2.95, from….
I’ve also had a go at the Placepot in what looks likely to be ’mission impossible’ but just in case lady luck decides to shine on me today I’m going to do the high roller perm for 5p stakes in the £100 to a Grand Challenge. I’ll also be doing £5ew on Mamlook in the Cesarewitch as he’s an old favourite of mine and on my list of horses to follow.
I’m hoping to be back tomorrow with a post about in-running betting and the controversial practice of ’arbing’.
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Free Festival Trends
My offer for the Free National Hunt Festival Trends will end at midnight on Sunday so if you haven’t taken advantage of my latest free giveaway then you’d better be quick. Remember there is absolutely no catch and no payment or card details are required.
See Sundays Post for full details or simply sign up at…
The first NH Guide will be for Wetherby’s Charlie Hall Chase on October 31st.
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MATT’S FREE GIVEAWAY
Matt over at Geegeez blog is also giving away some free stuff this week including a National Hunt System that has highlighted some big priced winners (up to 66/1) over the last few seasons.
It will cost you 30 seconds of your time and an email address so he knows where to send the freebies, and nothing else.
It’s not too late to sign up and he added another betting guide on the download page yesterday. Get your FREE copies by signing up at….
A reminder to all those left in the challenge that your entries must be in by 2pm today for Round 4. You should have received details via email but in case you haven’t simply send ABOVE or BELOW to the usual email address depending on whether you think the SP of the Cesarewitch winner will be more or less than 16/1
Newmarket’s big Autumn meeting, the appropriately named Champions Day, takes place this weekend and while researching the stats for our latest trends guide I uncovered a few trainers who are worthy of a mention.
Concentrating on the 6 main races of the day (Challenge Stakes, Champion Stakes, Rockfel Stakes, The Dewhurst, The Cesarewitch and The Jockey Club Cup) for the last decade I’ve come up with 3 trainers to look out for and 4 to possibly be wary of.
POSITIVE
Jim Bolger
In the last 10 years he’s had just 9 runners at the meeting but has managed 5 wins (55.6%) for a profit of +£22.02
Bolger has won the last 3 runnings of the Dewhurst from his only 3 runners in the race. He’s also won the Champion Stakes and the Rockfel.
Barry Hills
With 51 runners he’s had the most participants over the 6 races but they have yielded 8 winners (strike rate of 15.7%) for a whopping profit of +£43.42
Mr Hills has won the Challenge Stakes 3 times since 2000 and amazingly all 3 winners returned 20/1. He’s also won the Champion Stakes twice, the Rockfel, the Dewhurst and the Jockey Club Cup. However he last won The Cesarewitch way back in 1988 (Nomadic Way.)
Marcus Tregoning
He doesn’t have that many runners, just 14 in the last decade, but they usually run well and 3 have won (21.4% strike rate). Those 3 winners would have returned you a level stakes profit of £23.50.
He’s taken both Group 1 races on the card and provided a shock 25/1 winner in the 2000 Rockfel with the maiden Sayedah.
NEGATIVE
Sir Michael Stoute
He may be one of the best modern day trainers but a record of just 3 winners from 43 runners (7% strike rate) makes for fairly unimpressive reading. You would have recorded a level stakes loss of only -£7 in the last 10 years but this is mainly due to the 20/1 shock winner Cover Up saving the trainers blushes in the 2005 Jockey Club Cup.
S. Bin Suroor
They may be riding the crest of a wave at the moment and having their best season for a long time but if past performances are anything to go by Godolphin are heading for a nasty fall this weekend.
They’ve managed just 2 winners from 34 runners (5.9%) in the last decade for a loss of -£24.
Bin Suroor has a 0 from 15 record in the Champion Stakes for the past 10 years and, a not much better, 1 from 12 in the Challenge Stakes
Aiden O’Brien
Another top trainer who has struggled to get amongst the winners on Champions Day in the last 10 years is the master of Ballydoyle. From 45 runners he has hit the target just twice and in the process recorded a level stakes loss of -£32.33
The race that seems to do him the most damage is the Dewhurst where his 23 runners have yeilded just a single winner (Rock of Gibraltar in 2001 at odds of 4/6).
Richard Hannon
He may be the king of the 2yo but his Champion’s Day record leaves a lot to be desired with just 1 winner from 19 runners in the last decade. You would have lost £10 backing his horses to a level £1 stake with only a solitary win in the Rockfel saving the day. Beware his runners in the Challenge Stakes where he is 0 from 8 for the period in question.
It took a bit longer than I thought but King Kieren booted home his first Grade 1 winner since his return to the saddle on Saturday night. It came thanks to a typically forceful Fallon ride that got Gitano Hernando up by a neck to beat local favourite Colonel John. This represented a vast improvement in form for the winner as his previous run had seen him win a £7000 class 3 race on the all weather at Wolverhampton. It also gave me a nice payout on the bet I placed with BlueSquare back in August at 11/4 for Fallon to ride a Group 1 / Grade 1 winner before the end of the year.
2) Zenyatta is a great filly…
but until she races (and beats) the colts she can never be classed a great horse. Obviously you have to be pretty special to win11 straight races (7 Grade 1’s and 4 Grade 2’s) but racing and beating the same horses each time doesn’t really prove much. She has raced only against Fillies and Mares, started at odds on for her last 9 starts and won each time as she was expected to. A good run in the Classic will prove far more than an easy expected win in the Ladies Classic and I really hope the trainer takes the more difficult option at the Breeders Cup to add a little more spice to a race that could be the perfect climax to a great Flat Season.
3) The decline of the Betting Shop - Part 1…..
I placed a couple of bets in Cardiff’s William Hill shop on Saturday taking 16/1 each way on Webbow in the first at York. He ran his usual honest race and was gaining all the way to the line when finishing 3rd. I went back on the Sunday to pick up my winnings only to find both of my bets had been settled at the 12/1 SP despite the price clearly being marked on the slip. Having worked in betting shops all my adult life I know mistakes can happen and simply explained that the payout was wrong. But the manageress was having none of it blaming the cashier, the computer, something about translation and accusing me of fabricating the price! My hackles were well and truly raised now and a swift phone call to Customer Services ensued. The problem was quickly resolved and I went back to claim my money which is when the fun really started…
I would have thought that anybody running a betting shop should have the intelligence to be able to work out a simple £20ew place at 16/1 a quarter the odds without the use of a computer setttlingmachine or having to have it checked by another shop but 10 minutes later I was still waiting for my money. And when the manageress had finally worked out that both bets had £100 on them I was absolutely gobsmacked to see her use a calculator to add £100 and £100 up, I kid you not! I really fear for anyone in a betting shop placing a bet should the computer system go down one afternoon.
4) Decline of the betting shop Part 2…
The other piece of startling news is that Ladbrokes have just opened up a betting shop insideone of their current betting shops so they can double the number of Roulette type machines in the premises to 8. The current law states that no more than 4 of these machines can be installed in any one shop so Ladbrokes have used a legal loophole to apply for a separate licence for the same premises. Both’shops’ have a counter and are linked by the same entrance but as they bothhave a licence there are both able to have the full complement of FOBT (Fixed Odds Betting Terminals). Your local bookies is being turned into a glorified amusement arcade with horse-racing a mere afterthought.
5) Nobody rides Ascot as well as Frankie….
While my season long bad run at the Berkshire track continued Mr Dettori once again showed that nobody rides Ascot as well as he does. His ride on Opinion Poll in Saturday’s big handicap had it all - course knowledge, strong handling, timing and above all tactical awareness. A really great ride and, incidentally, another horse to add to my list of well fancied Royal Ascot runners who have left their poor form well behind on their next run.
One for the notebooks…
He won’t ever be a world beater and he made his debut yesterday at 66/1 in an all weather claimer but the way he finished suggests to me that there is definitely a race to be had with No One Likes Us. Having been hampered early and racing in the rear he made fantastic late headway on the rails to finish a never nearer 6th. A similar race should be well within his compass and he’s one to look out for on the all weather this winter.
£100 to a Grand Challenge
Round 4 details have now been sent out to all 18 remaining contestants. Entries must be received by 2pm this Saturday with a simple ABOVE or BELOW depending on whether you think the returned SP on the Cesarewitch winner will be more or less than 17/1.
FREE NH FESTIVAL TRENDS
The free NH trends until January 1st 2010 are still available and so far over 400 of you have signed up. Remember there is absolutely no catch and no payment or card details are required.
See Sundays Post for full details or simply sign up at…
As revealed in Friday’s Post I have another free offer available and it’s only for readers of this Blog and subscribers to TTS.
The offer is for full membership to Festival Trends until January 1st 2010. You’ll have full access to the Members Area and you’ll get every guide we produce in complete un-edited format. You won’t be asked for any payment and you won’t have to leave any card details.
It is completely 100% FREE.
So how do you sign up?
Option 1) If you have signed up for any Festival Trends Guide in the past you simply have to login to the Members Area select ‘NH Year Ticket’ and click ‘Order’. Simples!
When you login next time if you click on the link ‘NH Year Ticket’ under Your Subscriptions this will take you to the download page.
Fill in the details, choose a username and password and click continue. This will generate an account for you and to access the guides follow the instructions as per option 1.
Option 3) If you are a TTS subscriber you don’t have to do anything as the Guides will be available from the TTS Members Area as they become available.
The first main meeting we will be covering is the Paddy Power from Cheltenham on November 14th but we will be doing the Charlie Hall Chase as a feature race on the 31st October. There will also be guides from Newbury’s Hennesey meeting, Cheltenham’s Boylesports Chase, Aintree’s Becher Chase, Ascot, Kempton, Chepstow, Newcastle and Sandown.
You will get every guide FREE and in full with absolutely no catch.
Over 400 of you started out in the quest to be the last man standing and after 4 rounds we are now down to just 18 people. One of those 18 will be crowned Nag3 Grand Champion and win the entire Prizefund that I am currently trying to accumulate in the £100 to a Grand challenge.
I haven’t thought what round 5 will be yet but I should have a plan by Monday morning and I’ll reveal all then.
As for the kitty, I had a bit of a setback last weekend with some very poor selections but we’re still well in profit since we started and there’s plenty of time left to get the fund up to the magical £1000. Hopefully I won’t lose the lot before a champion is crowned!
<<<<< You can check out my progress by clicking the link on the left hand side menu.
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Roulette system
I know it’s a bit off subject and a lot of you won’t be interested in Roulette systems but it’s a subject that has fascinated me for ages. At some stage in my Xmas Challenge I hope to try my hand at roulette, although it won’t be until I get a decent enough bankroll to play with, so I thought I’d take a look at some systems that have been touted about including my own little method of playing.
If this isn’t for you then I apologise and I’ll be back on track with some horseracing news from tomorrow. Simply scroll down the post to read news on my latest giveaway. Otherwise read on…..
After Derren Brown’s attempt to win at Roulette bit the dust it just goes to prove that, if even he can’t manipulate the right result, the wheel is truly unbeatable. As Albert Einstein once remarked ‘You cannot beat a roulette table unless you steal money from it’.
But he said that well before the advent of the internet and it should now read ‘You cannot make money from a roulette table unless you sell an online system claiming that you can beat it’
For centuries people have tried, and failed, to find a winning formula for the roulette wheel. There are plenty of books on the subject and plenty of systems out there and if you type ‘Roulette System’ into Google it brings up over 4 1/2 million pages. None of them work and most cost a LOT of money. Do not be fooled by any of them and certainly do not part with any cash!
More often than not you will end up paying for the ‘infallible’ Martingale system (which we have encountered before on this blog) where you simply keep doubling your stake on red or black until you win. It IS infallible if you have limitless funds, can find a casino willing to take your bet and you don’t mind risking £64,000 to win £1. Otherwise forget it.
A more reliable system and one that will give you a lot of play for your cash is the ‘James Bond’ System…so called because in Ian Flemings book, Casino Royale, James Bond fleeces the casino (again!) by following his usual method of betting on the first two douzaines (1-12 and 13-24). He actually won 1/2 million francs in a matter of spins, nice work if you can get it!
Obviously this is entirely fictional and we all know that Bond never loses but you can adapt this method into a system by implementing the following rules.
1) Select your two ‘dozens’ and place 1 chip on each dozen. Do not change your selected ‘dozens’. Each time you win you get 3 chips back for your 2 chips stake. Keep a note each time you win and of how many spins you have had.
2) Repeat for 100 spins
3) At the end of the 100 spins you check to see how many times you won.
A ‘normal’ session of 100 spins would see you win 64.86% or, roughly, 65 times
So, if you win on 65 or fewer spins you have had a losing session and the number of winning spins is under the standard deviation you would have expected. You simply double your stake for the next 100 spins. If you lose again on the next 100 spins you move to 3x your original stake.
If you won on 66 or more spins you will have had a winning session and the number of winning spins has been over the standard deviation. If you are playing at your original stake you now carry on at that same stake for the next 100 spins otherwise drop down a stake.
It’s very simple and not very expensive to play. You also get a helluva lot of play for your money and get the chance to bet like James Bond (tuxedo and martini’s are optional)!
Other systems that you might end up paying vast amounts of money for include those that try to cover as many numbers as possible for small stakes. I’ll give you a couple of examples to save you losing your cash….
The four bet: You simply place 1 chip on each of the following - 0,1,2,3 corner / black / 3rd column / 2nd dozen.
This covers all but 5 of the numbers (5,7,25,32,34) and increases your payout on 6 of the numbers (0,1,2,3,15,24).
If the ball lands in one of the 5 ‘bad’ numbers then you double your stake for the next 4 spins.
If you get one of the 6 ‘good’ numbers you revert to your original stake.
Column colours:On a roulette wheel table layout the numbers are arranged into 3 columns
You can see that the 1st column has 6 red and 6 black numbers, column 2 has 4 red and 8 black numbers and the 3rd column has 4 black and 8 red numbers.
Decide whether you want to play either Red or Black. If you bet Red, also bet an equal amount on the 2nd Column. If you bet Black, also bet an equal amount on the 3rd Column.
You are covering 26 numbers out of 37 at the cost of only two units. That’s covering 18 of a colour plus 8 of the other colour and doubling up the coverage on 4.
When only the correct colour comes up, the bet returns even money so you get the spin for free. When only the Column comes up you make one unit profit. When the Colour and the Column come up you make three units profit.
Basically all these systems are designed to make your money last longer. More than likely you’ll get bored before you find out that the inbuilt house edge % (the dreaded Zero) will get you in the end.
Which brings me on to my own little ’system’. Please, please note this system is not infallible, it will not make you rich and I certainly don’t claim that it will win every time. But…. it is fun, can help you play at the table for a long time and every now and again it will produce some great results. When I play roulette in Vegas I always use this system in an attempt to make my money last longer coupled with the never ending hope of hitting on another good streak….
Firstly, and most importantly, this only works in a bricks and mortar casino with real croupiers spinning the ball. Don’t try it online or on those wretched machines in the bookies or on the automated wheels in casinos as it relies on the fact that certain croupiers will spin to the same section of the wheel time after time (not all of them but some of them).
You need to find a table and wait for a new croupier to come to the wheel before placing your bets. My ’system’ simply involves backing the first 9 numbers the new croupier spins until 5 of these 9 numbers come up again.
Rules
PART 1
1) Place 1 chip on the first number the new croupier spins
2) Place 1 chip on the 1st and 2nd number they spin, then 1st, 2nd and 3rd, and so on until you have 9 numbers
3) If a number comes up again before you have 9 numbers simply ignore that spin (except to take your winnings) and carry on until you have 9 unique numbers
4) If you get to 9 numbers without getting a repeat you will have lost 36 chips (Don’t worry we should get them back!)
PART 2
5) Now you have 9 numbers carry on placing 1 chip on each number until any one of the 9 comes up again. When this happens - take your winnings, take back the chip on the winning number, cross the number off the list and back the remaining 8 numbers.
6) Repeat this until you have crossed off 5 winning numbers and are left with 4 on your list. When this happens you should show a profit and you can either quit or wait for another change of croupier.
Part 3
7) If you are still playing Part 2 after 12 spins then double your stake to 2 chips
Part 4
8] If you are still playing Part 3 after 8 spins then double your stake again to 4 chips
9) If you are still playing Part 4 after another 4 spins GIVE UP! (that’s the part I find the hardest)
Obviously the quicker you are able to cross off the 5 numbers the more you will win and if you can get a repeat before you get your 9 unique numbers this is great as it pays for all your bets in this period. If you go the whole 33 spins without getting one repeat then I’d suggest never playing roulette again as you’re even unluckier than I am. If this unfortunate event occurs you will lose 432 chips. It’s never happened to me before but I’m sure one day it will…….
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Festival Trends Free Offer
Great news for all you Nag3 Blog readers out there as I am going to give everyone who wants it FREE subscription to my National Hunt Festival Trends Guides until January 1st 2010. This offer is for full Membership and will include every NH guide until the end of the year. That’s Newbury’s Hennesey meeting, Cheltenham’s Murphy’s and Paddy Power Festivals, Kempton’s King George, The Welsh National plus many more.
These guides will sell for between £5 and £10 each but everyone who is reading this blog, or subscribes to TTS, will get them ALL, absolutely FREE. If you’re reading this post today you qualify, simple as that.
I will announce details on how you can claim your free subscription on Monday. (There will be no credit card details needed and no payment taken at any stage). It is completely 100% FREE to all readers and TTS subscribers.
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FRIDAY FUN
I’m sure a lot of you have played 10 Pin Bowling before but I bet you can’t do this…..
All this talk in the racing pages about how unlucky Youmzain is, drives me mad. His last 17 races have all been in Group 1 company, he’s never been out of the top 5 including two wins and he’s managed to accumulate over £3 million in win and place prize money. If that’s unlucky then I want an unlucky horse for Christmas. He’s held up, he finishes fast but he never gets there in time - that’s just his style of running. You couldn’t call him ungenuine as he tries as hard as any but you can’t call him unlucky either as he’s had plenty of opportunities to win. The reality is, he’ll always run the same gallant race but he will always find one or more too good for him no matter how weak or how strong the contest. You get the feeling he’d be just as happy finishing 2nd in a seller at Folkestone as he would finishing 2nd in the Prix De L’Arc de Triomphe.
Devon Loch, now that’s unlucky!
2) Newmarket is not the place to bet at the end of the season….
After Saturday’s nightmare on the betting front I’ll be taking extreme caution at the forthcoming Cesarewitch meeting. The results on Cambridgeshire day were the type we used to pray for when we owned our betting shops. Unfortunately they rarely occured. Oasis Dancer beaten easily in a Goodwood maiden comes out and wins a £1/2 million+ race beating a large field including a Group 1 winner Saphresa beaten in a poor Group 3 race last time out takes the big Group 1 race of the day and in doing so defeats a dual Group 1 winner and reigning 1000 Guineas Champion. Supaseus woefully out of form this season decides that the 36 runner Cambridgeshire Handicap would be a good time to return to his best Aldemoor then takes a leaf out of Supaseus’s book and wins the class 2 handicap later in the afternoon at an unfancied 25/1 having not been sighted in any run this year.
A disastrous days punting.
3) If it looks to good to be true….
it usually is. It’s an old maxim but one that is never more correct than when dealing with racehorses. On all known form and ratings Angels Pursuit was a good thing for Saturday’s 2yo Trophy. His second to Awzaan in a Group 2 had been boosted the day before and the race in my opinion was his for the taking. I manged to get 5/2 about something I thought would be odds on, which should have set the alarm bells ringing, and then went in again at the opening show of 9/4. The horse then put in a laboured display and never got competitive adding another nail to my punting coffin.
4) Backing fillies at the end of the season is a VERY BAD idea…..
I said it in my post on Saturday but still went ahead and backed them anyway so I have only myself to blame. The female of any species are hard to fathom at the best of times but given a hard season and colder weather racehorses seem to be nigh on impossible to work out at this stage of the year. Ghanaati, Midday, Stacelita, Goldikova are 4 reasons why I won’t be backing fillies at the end of next years flat season.
5) Nicky Henderson’s ban was the most pointless ever handed out by racings rulers….
It’s good news for Royal trainer Nicky Henderson who can start having runners again from this Sunday having served his three month ban for using illegal drugs on his horses. I bet he’s really struggled this summer not being able to send his horses to Newton Abbot and the hardship of having to miss Perth at the end of September must have been unbearable. Oh how he must have missed the delights of Sedgefield in late August. Over the last 5 years he has averaged just 14 runners from June to September which when you consider he ran 499 horses for the 2008-09 season represents less than 3% of his yearly stable entries. Hardly the most sever punishment ever handed out by the BHB….
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OOPS…
I wrongly said in yesterday’s Post that the ball landed in 8 black on Derren Browns Roulette scam program. This was however the number he incorrectly guessed would come up.
The actual number the ball landed in was 30 RED (next number along from 8). All those people who guessed RED are therefore through to the next round. Sorry for the mix-up.
I blame Derren Brown and all that mind control stuff.
I’m not going to get into the whole ‘is he the best horse ever?’ debate as I think it’s impossible to compare the generations in horse-racing and ultimately most peoples decision comes down to personal choice. Walter Swinburn says Shergar, Pat Eddery Dancing Brave, Geoff Lewis Mill Reef, Peter O’Sullivan Sea Bird and I’m sure Lester Piggott would say Nijinsky (unless the money was right in which case he’d say whichever horse you wanted him to say). You only have to look at the jumps to see how this works as there are still plenty of people out there who think Desert Orchid was a better horse than Arkle, yeah right!
What I will say is that Sea The Stars is an exceptional horse and we have been very lucky to see such an amazing animal race throughout this flat season. This type of horse comes along so rarely that it would be pointless to get bogged down in discussing where he stands in history instead let’s appreciate him for what he is/was - a truly brilliant horse who had everything you’d want in a thoroughbred…class, pace, stamina, gears and guts a plenty.
I’ll let the numbers and statistics do the talking in a moment but I’d like to offer an apology of sorts to Mick Kinane who I have been less than complimentary to on this Blog over the past 18 months. He rode a super cool race under incredible pressure and brought STS to challenge at exactly the right time. Despite all the other jockeys trying their best to keep him boxed in he never panicked and gave STS a text book ride. I shudder to think what kind of mess Jamie Spencer would have gotten into from the same position. (Youmzain would have won the Arc and STS finishes 5th, full of running behind the leaders, with Spencer stood up in the irons no doubt. He’d then blame everyone else and take no responsibility for the defeat). Mick Kinane at his finest and while his past misdemeanours won’t be entirely forgotten I’m prepared to cut him a little more slack. We’ll just have to hope that connections don’t run him at the Breeders Cup as Mick Kinane’s biggest cock-ups have generally occurred at this meeting.
Stats for Sea The Stars….
- 9 runs 8 wins including 6 Group 1 victories
- A 3yo career of 6 runs at Group 1 level. He ran and won in every month from May to October.
- He won over £4.4 million in prize-money
- His biggest margin of victory was the 2 1/2 lengths he won the Irish Champion Stakes by.
- He won his 8 races by a combined total of 12 3/4 lengths
- The biggest price he was sent off was 8/1 in the 2000 Guineas. 1/4 was the shortest in York’s International Stakes
- The mighty Ballydoyle stable have run 12 different horses 22 times to try and defeat him as a 3yo.
- STS has beaten 63 horses this year
- You would have made a profit of 12.9pts backing him in every run as a 3yo
- The 3 horses that finished in front of him on his debut have since run 16 times between them, winning 4 times and £196,000 in win prizemoney
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DERREN BROWN
What a load of rubbish this series has been. It’s difficult to take him seriously anymore and after last Friday’s show I think it’s obvious, despite Brown’s claim to the contrary, that he does in fact use ’stooges’. I can’t imagine anyone not noticing £5000 has gone missing from their bank account!
Anyway the upshot of it all was that the ball landed in Black 8 and all those left in the £100 to a Grand challenge who correctly guessed Black are through to Round 4. More details to follow…….
I’ll be back tomorrow with a round-up of last weekends action..
What a great weekends racing ahead of us. Redcar, Newmarket, Epsom and Longchamps all have cracking cards.
I’ve been up all night polishing my punting boots and I’m now putting them on ready for a mammoth two day punting-fest.
Having gone through the race cards yesterday afternoon/evening it seems there are quite a few horses I want to back.
I’ll share them with you and as always do what you please with them….back them, lay them or ignore them.
2.35 Epsom: DYLANESQUE - well regarded 2yo who ran very green on his debut. Got off the mark next time out at Yarmouth and may have more to offer from his current mark of 78 in this tight looking nursery. 2pts win
3.15 Redcar: ANGELS PURSUIT - he was second in a Group 2 last time out behind, none other than, Awzaan with Radiohead back in 4th. That form took a significant boost yesterday with the Group 1 exploits of those two runners and in my book Angels Pursuit should be an odds on shot. I’ll be steaming in at 15/8 or better… 6pts win
3.55 Redcar: TOMBI - ran a good race from the ‘wrong side’ in the Ayr Gold Cup and the step back up to 7f can end a long losing streak. 1pt win
5.05 Redcar: SANDS CROONER - on my list of horses to follow with exactly the conditions I was waiting for. A maximum each way bet for me today on this one. 3pts ew
3.00 Newmarket: GHANAATI - backing fillies at this time of year is asking for trouble but the 1000 Guineas winner is lightly raced and should have the class to take this race. 2pt win
3.40 Newmarket: CHARM SCHOOL - I’ve got an ante-post bet on Sirvino for this race but with 36 runners you can never be too sure of your chances! So I’ll be having another runner in the race just in case. Charm School ran well in the big trial for the Cambridgeshire and he comes from the right stable. Small bets for a big field though.. 1pt ew
4.50 Newmarket: SPANISH BOUNTY - I’ve backed him quite a few times this season and done my money but I like the booking of Mr Fallon today. Hopefully the master can get my dough back 0.5pts ew
If I’ve got any money left I’ll be going across the channel for my Sunday betting. I’ve got my son’s 6th birthday party to take care of then (2 hours, 30 screaming kids and no racing channel! Arrrrghh!) so I’ll give you my bets now…
Abbaye: WAR ARTIST - I’ve mentioned him a few times in recent weeks so I guess I better stick with him. Small stakes though as I have the utmost respect for Borderlescott and Fleeting Spirit. 1pt win
L’Opera: MIDDAY - there can only be one horse for me to back in this race and Henry Cecil’s filly is the one. Again it’s not a great idea to be backing in fillies races at the end of the season but I really fancy this ones chances. 2pts win
The Arc: SEA THE STARS - the best racehorse for years looking to cement his place in history. The ground, draw and trip are all in his favour with only Mick Kinane riding in a 19 runner race standing between him and immortality. 4pts win
Cadran: ASKAR TAU - Yeats is set to retire after this race and it’s time to look for a new staying king. All hail Askar Tau who just keeps on improving. Small stakes but hopefully a big cheer. 1pt win
For the £100 to a grand challenge I’ll be having £2 for every point on the selections. For my own bets I’ll be having slightly more and if things go badly this weekend I’m going to have to sell an awful lot of calendars to make it up.
