It’s been an early start for me this morning because my son has been eagerly awaiting the paper delivery boy since 6.00am. No it’s not the Racing Post he’s after, rather the Daily Mirror as they are giving away free Star Wars Lego sets. Knowing how much these Lego sets can cost it seems a pretty good offer to me and with 5 to collect this week not only will it save me a few quid, it should also keep him quiet for a bit. And while he’s playing with Darth Vader et al it might give me a chance to finally get a go on the Wii Sports Resort I bought a fortnight ago.
Being up that early has also given me the opportunity to have a good look through the racing this morning and over my usual bowl of snap, crackle and pop I think I’ve found a couple of lively outsiders at Haydock this afternoon.
The racing looks a little better this weekend and as well as Haydock’s competitive looking card there’s a fairly decent supporting meeting over at Kempton on the all weather. I’ve had a look at the trends for a couple of races there as well as having a form based look at the London Mile Handicap Final at 3.10.
My brother, who is in top form at the moment, has kindly sent me one for the sprint at 1.55 which I’ll pass on to you first…..
1.55 Haydock. The horse he’s interested in for this tough looking sprint is crack AW sprinter and out and out 5f specialist Cheveton. You can forget his last run at Ripon where he finished stone cold last in the Great St Wilfrid as everything was against him; the draw, the going and the distance. He did manage to persuade the handicapper to drop him 3lb’s because of that run, so all was not lost, and he now sits on a very attractive looking mark of 91. Having started the season on a rating of 100, and running some very good races off that mark, he certainly looks weighted to win today. The last time he was anywhere near this low a rating was at the backend of last season when he ran one of his best ever races finishing second in the re-scheduled £37k York Sprint Cup off a mark of 93.
It’s easy to see why he fancies this one and back over 5f, back on softish ground and the draw looking okay this former course winner rates massive each way value at 20/1.
4.05 Haydock. Over to me now and my favourite type of race, a 2yo Nursery. I usually do quite well in these types of races and after a few big priced placed horses lately I finally managed to nail a winner when Layali Al Andalus cruised home on Monday. Nothing in today’s field looks as well handicapped as that winner but there are grounds for thinking that one runner towards the bottom of the list looks better weighted than some in this race (Quite what Marcus Cicero did in a fairly slowly run ,class 5 £2k maiden at Windsor to get a rating of 83 is anyone’s guess but I suppose that’s why I’m not the BHB Handicapper.)
The one I’m interested in is Pinturafrom the Mick Channon yard as this consistent 2yo has some very solid form in the book. His 4th behind Red Badge at Newmarket last time out could prove a mighty run as that race was probably the strongest nursery run this season. He didn’t quite seem to get home over the 7f that day and a strongly run 6f looks more his type of race, conditions which he should get today. He had also run in another good looking nursery in early August at Goodwood when 3rd to one of today’s rivals Bluie. That race has thrown up a couple of winners including a stablemate of todays selection who took a nursery last week at Warwick. Pintura has an 8lb pull with Bluie for just over 2 lengths that he was beat and at around 16/1 is another who rates cracking each way value.
2.55 Haydock.The Old Borough Cup looks a tricky race with a lot of horses running here who hold entries for the Cesarewitch later in the season. As I said yesterday it may be worth chancing a few quid ante-post each way on Highland Legacy for The Ces as I’m sure he’ll run well this afternoon.
But it’s another horse entered up for the Cesarewitch who is of more interest to me today and I think, on this rain softened ground, the 33/1 on Macorville just has to be taken. An unlucky 2nd in the 2007 Northumberland Plate and beaten only 6 and a bit lengths by Yeats off level weights it was no surprise to see him sent off as 7/1 second favourite for that years Cesarewitch. Something was obviously wrong with him that day as he came home tailed off last of the 33 runners and spent the whole of last year on the sidelines.
In two runs this year he has yet to recapture his old form but we can excuse him his first run as he was outclassed and running over an inadequate trip. He needs soft ground and having been dropped 11lb for those two runs he is now back down to a winnable mark. A small each way bet at 33/1 should give us a run for our money.
1.55 Haydock CHEVETON 2pts each way 20/1
4.05 Haydock PINTURA 1pt each way 14/1
2.55 Haydock MACORVILLE 1/2pt each way 33/1
Kempton 2.10 Sirenia Stakes. Group 3. 6f. 2yo only.
- 10 of the last 11 winners were rated 95 or higher
- 11 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or under
- All of the last 12 winners had won over 5 or 6f
- The last 3 winners had all run in ther York’s St Leger Sales Race
- 10 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 4 last time out ( 2 of the exceptions ran unplaced in the St Leger Sales Race)
- Since becoming a Group 3 in 2003 no winner had run in a Pattern race previous to taking part here
It’s a very classy renewal this year with all of the runners having run in Pattern company and 5 of the 8 being rated over 95. If we stick with those under 13/2 and overlook In Some Respect as maidens don’t tend to win this race we are left with either Monsiuer Chevalier or Iver Bridge Lad.
I’m tempted to go with Iver Bridge Lad as he has course form on this all weather surface but he was a long way behind Monsiuer Chevalier at Goodwood with no apparent excuses that day. There were doubts about Monsiuer Chevalier getting the 6f last time out but he ran well enough to finish 3rd behind Showcasing and just about prove his effectiveness over the distance. I think on the trends and on form he’s done enough to edge the decision.
Kempton 2.40 September Stakes. Group 3. 1m 4f. 3yo+
- All of the last 9 winners were aged 4-6
- 11 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
- All of the last 10 winners were rated 104 or higher (9/10 were rated 110+)
- 12 of the last 13 winners had won a Pattern race
- 10 of the last 12 winners had won over 1m4f
- 11 of the last 13 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (2 exceptions ran unplaced in Group 1 or Group 2 company)
In receipt of 5lbs from top weight Kirklees I think the horse that looks the most likely trends winner is All The Aces. He ran unplaced in the Princess of Wales Stakes last time out which happens to be the same race that 2007 winner Steppe Dancer also failed to make the frame in. He was badly hampered when well fancied that day and this former all weather winner can gain compensation here.
And finally…..
3.10 Kempton. London Mile Handicap (Final)
A nice race with some interesting runners in it but I can’t see past the Godolphin favourite Musleh. The way he bounded clear over course and distance last time out was very impressive and if he’s in the same sort of form today he’ll be very hard to beat. Frankie forgoes a trip to Haydock today to take the ride and at 9/4 he is my bet of the day.
2.10 Kempton MONSIUER CHEVALIER 2pts at 6/4
2.40 Kempton ALL THE ACES 1pt at 7/2
3.10 Kempton MUSLEH 4pts at 9/4
As always do what you want with them…… Back Them, Lay Them or Ignore Them!
But me I’ll be backing them and for the £100 to a Grand prize fund I’ll be placing a bet on all 6 at £2 a point and have a 10p Each Way Lucky 63 (just in case!)
Good luck,
Gavin.