Trainer Track Stats

Wow, what a busy week it’s been here at Nag Towers!

It started with our week long giveaway where we had over 4600 unique hits recorded on the download page alone, meaning an awful lot of people have benefited from some great freebies. I’m sure you’ll all join me in thanking those people who very generously gave up their product to make these offers happen. Thanks guys.

If you didn’t get your copy of any of the free guides you can still get them from here>>>>> http://www.trainertrackstats.com/VIPLOUNGE.html  

Next up was a visit to Blackpool (more of that later)

And then it was back to launch TTS. Again the response was phenomenal with loads of you rushing to secure a copy of the guide and bot. I’ve had some great comments so far and those of you who have purchased the ‘bot package seem impressed with just how easy it is to use. I wasn’t lying when I said it was one click easy!

Of course it’s winners we are all after and that’s how TTS will be judged at the end of the season. I can only hope that the results match all of our expectations.

We may have to wait a little while longer to see how things start out though as there’s not too much jump racing for the end of this week. It looks likely that Sunday will see our first runners take to the stage as we have 4 possible candidates should the trainers decide to run their horses. I know we’re all itching to get stuck in but it won’t be long until the jumps season kicks into action and the selections become more frequent.

What it does mean though is you haven’t got a copy yet you haven’t missed a thing! There are still a few places left but you’ll have to be fairly sharpish as at the rate they’re selling we’ll be putting the SOLD OUT sign sometime this weekend.

>>>>Get your copy of TTS 09/10 here<<<<

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5 things I’ve learnt this week….

1) Ascot is definitely my bogey track this season…..

Throughout my punting life I’ve always done well at Ascot and had some fantastic days out there. One of my best ever wins on a racecourse was when Pat Eddery got Zaralaska up the inside of the field to win the Bessborough handicap at Royal Ascot in 1997. It was the last race of the day and, in the days before I had a family to support and the betting shop business was good, I had absolute bundles on it. It took me over an hour to queue up and get my money from all the bookies I placed bets with. Great memories of a great racecourse but this season it’s seems to have all gone horribly wrong.

Glowing Praise aside I just can’t seem to back a winner there this year. The Royal meeting was 5 long days of bad luck and big priced placed horses culminating in having a hefty bet on future Ayr Gold Cup winner Jimmy Styles in the Wokingham. Then last weekend was another 2 days of Ascot misery with the lowlight being Advanced’s win in the big 7f handicap on Saturday. I had a good bet on this one in the Great St Wilfred and after he finished 3rd I made a note to watch out for him if running over 7f. I made the note but didn’t follow it up and another big priced winner went begging. Festival Trends subscribers will also know only too well that Ascot has been the one track this year we have struggled with. I can only hope next year brings about a change in fortune at the Berkshire track.

2) O’Brien horses are as tough as they come…….

Over the years we’ve seen some great horses come out of the O’Brien stable and one thing the majority of his  true champions have shared is their braveness and willingness to fight to the line. We saw it with Giants Causeway and Rock of Gibraltar and we witnessed it earlier in the season when Mastercraftsman battled back to win the St James Palace at Royal Ascot. To that list we can now add Rip Van Winkle who twice fought off challenges from horses looking to be going better. First Delegator and then Zacinto looked to be going well when they came up to put it to RVW but he just kept finding more and ended up a comfortable winner. He looks like another ‘Iron Horse’ for the stable.

3) Richard Hannon loves sales races…..

Another big sales race and another big payday for Richard Hannon. Last year the stable won both Goffs Millions Races and although he didn’t quite manage to emulate that particular feat this time around he did get the first two home in one and a 3rd and 5th in the other. All told he brought back home around £1.3m. Not bad for an afternoons work!

4) The BBC Sports department have their priorities all wrong….

It’s been obvious for a while now that the BBC don’t care too much for racing but this weekends Arc coverage looks set to be the final nail in the coffin for racing fans. Their decision to put the Portugese MotoGPin front of one of the highlights of the racing calendar, Arc Sunday, is madness. With all due respect to MotoGP fans, I doubt very much the audience for that race would be more than for the horse racing so to put 7 of the 9 races on a ‘channel’ which most people don’t have access to is just wrong. If you don’t have the ‘red button’ on your TV then you’ll just have to read how good Goldikova is in Monday’s Nag3 Post.

5) I’m in no rush to re-visit Blackpool….

After our recent visit to Blackpool(what a dump!) to see the Posh get beat (boo!)  and view the lights (what is all the fuss about? The street round the corner from my mother in laws has a better light display at Christmas!) I have to say I was less than impressed. My son enjoyed it but if I never go back it will be too soon. The tone for your visit is set when you enter the town through a run-down car park, most bizarre. Reading the literature for the light display the council claim that 3.5 million people visit the town for the lights (that’s a lot of disappointed or easily pleased people) and they spend £275 million pounds while they’re there. They’ve been doing this since 1913 so my question is, what the hell have they done with all that money? Because it sure hasn’t been spent on doing up the buildings or roads in Blackpool.

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Calendar Club

I started my Winter job yesterday with the Calendar Club so for the next week or so the posts could be a bit hit or miss as I catch up withall the paperwork. It seems a bit strange selling calendars in September but you wouldn’t believe the number of people doing their Christmas shopping already, the world’s gone mad. Things are set to get even  busier for us this year as Cardiff unveils a brand new multi million pound shopping centre at the end of next month.
Also watch out for some competitions over the coming months with racing calendars and diaries as prizes! 

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£100 to a grand challenge

Don’t forget, all those still left in the challenge, to get your Round 3 guesses in before 9pm this Friday. The task this time is to simply guess Red or Black in Derren Brown’s live Channel 4 roulette escapade. Whatever number the ball lands in will be the chosen colour and if it’s Green/Zero then everyone goes through to round 4.

And finally,

2 for Newmarket on Thursday…

Manifest has been burning up the Newmarket gallops and he was seriously considered being supplemented for the St Leger by connections even though he only has a maiden victory to his name. It’s time for him to show us what he can do on the track and the Listed race at 3.10 Newmarket looks a great opportunity before another step up in class.

I’ll have £5 on him for the £100 to a grand challenge.

One horse who I’ve been following lately is Ellemujie and he may be worth chancing at a price in the 5.30. He’s dropped down the handicap steadily since winning at Sandown earlier in the season and is now on a 1lb lower mark. He has his going and Tom Queally is an interesting booking making him of each way appeal.

I’ll have £1ew on him for the £100 to a grand challenge.

Good luck,
Gavin.

….the king of Ascot that is, Frankie Dettori.

A masterful ride from Mr Dettori brings home both Glowing Praise and the bacon.

Thanks for all of the emails. Hopefully this goes some way to making up for last weekends draw debacle.

And of course it’s another great result for the £100 to a Grand Challenge which goes from strength to strength and has now passed the £300 mark.

Which leads me on to Round 3 for all those who have successfully negotiated the first two hurdles (odd & below).

For our next challenge we will be playing ROULETTE.

Derren Brown is planning on doing his next stunt in a London casino and will be placing a £5000 bet on a spin of a roulette wheel. What you need to do is simply guess whether the winning number will be Red or Black and send it to the usual email address odd@nag-nag-nag.co.uk. If the ball drops in Zero (green) then everyone will go through to the next round.

Derren Brown’s show is live on Channel 4 at 9pm on the 2nd October so entries must be in by this time and date.

Remember the only people who can enter still are those who got through Rounds 1 & 2 i.e. those who correctly guessed Odd and Below. Good luck to them.

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ASCOT TODAY

I’m sticking with the 4 horses I selected for this weekends Festival Trends Guide as my bet for today.

For all those who have not yet downloaded the guide, why not? It’s completely free along with every other guide I gave out this week. Just enter your email address here>>>>> FREE GUIDES 

After you’ve done that you’ll have to confirm that you want to subscribe and then you’ll get a email with a link in it. This will take you to the VIP Lounge where all the guides are available for free download. No payment is needed and no card details will be taken. All the downloads are available in one direct click.

For the £100 to a Grand Challenge I’ll be doing a £1 Patent and £2 singles on the 3 non handicap races and £5ew on our runner in the Challenge Cup. (The likeliest trends winners)

I’m in a bit of a rush today as I’m in Blackpool to see Peterborough attempt to keep their good run going and then take the family to see the lights tonight. I’ll be back tomorrow lunchtime when I’ll have some more TTS news….

Good luck,
Gavin.

Before I get down to business for today there was a story in last Friday’s Daily Mail which I thought you might like to hear about and is quite relevant to a few of my recent post’s. It recorded a quite amazing occurrence.

In Bulgaria’s National Lottery the same set of 6 numbers came out twice in consecutive draws. Apparently this has never happened before in all the lottery draws that have ever taken place in any country.

Nobody managed to pick all 6 winning numbers (4,15,23,24,35,42) the first time around but second time around there were a record (for Bulgaria) 18 winners who got a whopping £4600(!) for their troubles. Inevitably it sparked a police enquiry but they could find no evidence of wrong doing and the amazing result was simply put down to a freak coincidence. I wonder if Derren Brown was visiting Bulgaria last week?…….

Incidentally, 1-2-3-4-5-6 has never come out in any lottery draw in the world, ever.

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Onto the main business of the day…Trainer Track Stats

I hope you’re all enjoying the amazing free giveaways that have been dished out this week and are ready for some more! If you haven’t signed up for the free guides (why not?) then there’s still plenty of time. All the downloads are still available and all it requires is your name & email address so we know where to send the link. You can sign up here>>>>FREE GIVEAWAYS

If you went to the VIP lounge  to collect today’s freebie you will have seen the short write-up about this years TTS Guide and the exciting news about our new automated betting software (’bot for short).

Unfortunately, like most things in life the ‘bot comes with both good news and bad news.

The good news first….the TTS ’bot is brilliant. We’ve had some great fun these last few weeks testing it and, until you’ve seen it, you won’t believe how easy it is to use. Just one click will have the bot up and running. All of the selections are ready and waiting for you, no need to search through the papers for them, and all of your bets are placed automatically throughout the afternoon making sure that the strict betting protocol of TTS is followed to the letter.

but now the bad news….because of it’s efficiency the bot is going to have an impact on the betting market. We have seen it in other products that we have sold where the odds of our selections have been affected by simple market forces. Having hundreds (or thousands) of customers backing the same horse immediately before the off is bound to shorten the odds and we therefore have to take measures to safeguard the integrity of the product.

Which is why we have had to limit the number of copies we will sell this year to just 250. Believe me, this bot is so affective if we had hundreds of people using it to place their bets the market would be severely affected. And when you consider that last season we sold over 1300 copies of TTS I hope you can see why the places this season are so limited.

But, luckily, there is a solution. We’re going to open up an Early Bird list where all those who have signed up to it will have the opportunity to purchase TTS a full 2 hours before the general release date. If you want a copy of this seasons TTS I strongly recommend that you put your name down on this list to ensure you’re first in line when it goes on sale.

So far this week I have had over 7500 people visit the Free Giveaway page and well over 4000 of these sign up for the extra freebies. It’s looking extremely likely that demand will be huge for TTS this year and it will sell out.

Please remember, once those 250 packages have been sold, the doors will be firmly shut.

The only way to guarantee getting a copy is to be on the Early Bird List. Sign up now in the VIP Lounge.

Finally on the subject, today’s Freebie is ready for download now in the VIP Lounge. It’s a 4 race Festival Trends Guide for tomorrows Ascot meeting and includes the Royal Lodge, Fillies Mile, Challenge Handicap and the feature QEII Stakes. It’s the full guide with all the trends, stats, ratings and selections.

If you’ve already signed up for the extra freebies then please follow the link to the VIP Lounge that was in your confirmation email. If you’ve yet to sign up then you can still fill in your details and claim all the free stuff given away this week by clicking here>>>>FREE STUFF

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ASCOT TODAY

One of my horses to follow goes in today’s 4.20 Ascot and interestingly Frankie Dettori has been booked. Nobody rides Ascot better than Frankie and although it’s a very strong handicap, at around 12/1, I can easily see GLOWING PRAISE making the frame.

I’ll be having £5ew on him at 12’s for the £100 to a Grand Challenge.

Talking of the challenge, I’ll be back tomorrow with news on Round 3.

Last weeks Round 2 result was BELOW or UNDER when the winner of the Ayr Gold Cup came from stall 15.

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FRIDAY FUN

I reckon this is the best Friday Fun ever.

The quality of the video isn’t too good but the content is incredible. Set to Louis Armstrong’s What a Wonderful World prepare to be amazed.
Enjoy…….

Good luck,
Gavin.

With all the Trainer Track Stats hoohah going on at the moment I didn’t get to post my regular 5 things from the weekend segment yesterday so here it is a day late.

5 things I learnt this weekend….

1) Draw biases (is that the correct plural for bias?) still exist but not as we know them….

This season we’ve seen many long standing, perceived draw biases turned on their head at courses up and down the country. Folkestone, Ascot, York, Goodwood have all seen races won by the ‘wrong’ side and now, to that list, we can add Ayr. Obviously these tracks were aware of the bias in certain races but in trying to even things out all they have done is tip the balance the other way. It’s annoying and it sure aint funny…

In fact the only people who can possibly be laughing are the bookies and they’re doing it all the way to the bank.

2) Royal Ascot is a hard place to win at….

That might sound like an obvious statement but the number of well fancied horses that ran appallingly at Royal Ascot this year and have since shown that form to be all wrong is amazing. Doctor Freemantle is the latest horse to do it. Sent off 5/2 second favourite for the Hardwicke he ran no race at all to finish 7thof 9, some 10 lengths behind Campanologist. In two subsequent starts he has won both times and had Campanologist in rear on both occasions. Monsieur Chevallier 5th as the 6/4f at Ascot, won his next two. Jimmy Styles was 5/1f for the Wokingham where he finished 12th, won the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday. Lady of the Desert 11/2 and 6th in the Queen Mary then went on to win a Group 3 and Group 2 on her next two starts. Brief Encounter 6/1fav for the Britannia won a 24k handicap on his next run. Debussy went off a well fancied 15/2 for the King  Edward VII but was tailed off in 10th, he won a Group 2 at Maison Laffitte next time out. I’m sure there’s lots more to this list but these ones stick in my mind because I backed them all!

Beware Ascot this weekend.

3) Jockey’s are slow to catch on….

I mentioned it on Sunday but I have to say it again because my blood is still boiling. Not for the first time this season jockeys just do not seem to be aware of any draw bias that is happening at a track. How else can you explain the decision of 7 jockeys to come stands side in the Firth Of Clyde Stakes. Everybody in the country knew by that time the place to be was on the far side yet still they stick to the nearside rail and give up all hope of winning. Having made Beyond Desire the bet of the day I was really annoyed to have her chance ruined by the incompetence of her jockey. The best horse most certainly did not win that race.

4) Kieren Fallon’s autobiography is a cracking good read…

The missus bought me a surprise pressie the other day (still not sure why, I don’t think it was our anniversary or at least I hope it wasn’t!), Mr Fallon’s autobiography and although I’ve only just started it, I am enjoying it far more than Patrick Vietch’s life story. It’s a really good book and hopefully I’ll get some free time next week to finish it off.

5) Cinema’s make their money from the food….

I always knew that it was best to take your own food to the cinema as they really sting you on their prices but I just didn’t know how bad it really was. I do now! Having taken my son and his friend to see Night at the Museum 2 at the local multi-plex for just £1 each I was feeling pretty good about the day. I’d stashed the juice, popcorn and sweeties in my jacket and things were really looking good. But on leaving the boys decided they wanted a hotdog and foolishly I agreed. I won’t be making that mistake again! 1 hotdog for £4.55. Now that’s just ridiculous and, coincidentally, was about the same time that my day started to go downhill….

Good luck,
Gavin.

The nights are drawing in, the evenings are getting chilly and my engagement with the Calendar Club creeps ever closer.

This can only mean one three things……the flat is winding down and it will soon be the turn of the National Hunt boys (and girls) to start their season. Oh, and I’m going to have to do some real work, real soon!

But before I start my 3 month stint with the nations biggest supplier of calendars I have the not-so-little matter of TrainerTrackStats 2009/10 to unveil.

This season’s guide will be available from midday next Monday and I’ll be revealing more about it throughout this week but for now you can simply take advantage of some good old fashioned generosity. To help celebrate the launch of TTS I’ve collected a few manuals and betting guides from various sources and will make them available to you all ABSOLUTELY FREE OF CHARGE! and to get you started, I won’t even ask for an email address.

The first of these guides is ready for download now and is a product you have probably all heard of……Flat Racing Profiles.

Launched amidst an amazing fanfare at the beginning of the flat season the FRP Guide sold for £97 before quickly selling out. It’s up over 50 points so far this season and it’s a real labour of love for the author David Peat. 

And you can have the full guide with more than 150 horse profiles ABSOLUTELY FREE!

I still can’t believe I’ve managed to get David to allow me to do this so I’d go and get it now before he sobers up and pulls the plug!

You can get it from here>>>>>>FREE FLAT RACING PROFILES

Good luck,

Gavin.

It’s time to put my hands up and apologise.

I am very sorry for the duff tips over the weekend and any financial losses incurred by you, the readers.

It was due, almost entirely, to me completely screwing the draw up at Ayr and by the time the Silver Cup had been run and the bias was there for all to see….it was too late.

Well I say ‘for all to see’ but that’s not exactly true as in the race after the Silver Cup had taken place seven of the 13 jockeys decided that high was still best. IDIOTS! They must have been the only 7 people in Britain who didn’t know that LOW was best. Unfortunately for punters 3 of those 7 idiots were riding the front three in the betting!

This handed the race to 33/1 winner Distinctive who came home for a very, very unlikely victory. If Distinctive ever finishes in front of Beyond Desire again I’ll run down the 6f course at Ayr in my underpants.

Previous results at the track had shown that high numbers were favoured on the sprint track but never has the bias been so prominent or so blatantly apparent as what we saw over the last two days of the Ayr festival. To go from a slight advantage for high to a complete dominance of the low stalls leads me to think that perhaps there were other factors at play here. After the antics at Folkestone earlier in the season I wouldn’t put anything past these racecourse officials.

For those of you who missed the races, in the Bronze Cup the first 7 horses home were drawn 1-8, The Silver Cup saw 10 of the first 12 horses drawn under 12 and in the Gold Cup the first 5 home raced down the far side. Frankie Dettori did however make up for his mistake in the previous race by electing to go the right way out of the stalls from a tricky middle draw (15) and win the Gold Cup, better late than never!

It would not surprise me in the slightest if over the next few days something was to come to light about how the racecourse groundstaff had tried to rectify the high draw advantage but in the process completely screwed it up and handed the sprint races to those drawn on the far side.

But the bottom line is that I did my money and unfortunately so did anyone else following my advice. I’m very sorry and I hope we can get it back over the next few weeks.

There is one last thing on the subject and that is a horse to look out for on his next outing. He ran on the Friday of the meeting in the race immediately after the Bronze Cup. Drawn 8 of 14 the rider brought Grissom stands side to race with 5 others and was beaten only 3/4 length into second. He was the only one of the first six home to come stands side and probably ran the best race of any horse racing this side all weekend. He had won over course and distance the race before and a quick return to the winners enclosure is most likely.

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I’ll be back tomorrow afternoon with the latest news on this season’s TTS and how you can get your hands on some amazing FREE giveaways. I’ve got a different racing product to offer every day this week, they’re all up-to-date and relevant and none of them will cost you a single penny.

Be sure to come back tomorrow because you won’t want to miss this….

Good luck,

Gavin.

I would imagine that my brother has been waiting for this weekend all his punting life. 3 big field sprint handicaps at the same distance, on the same course and under the same conditions. He’s been up all night going through the entries and studying the form to come up with 2 selections for each of the Gold, Silver and Bronze Cups.

Judging by the number of entries for the races and the amount of horses who didn’t make the Bronze cup I think we could see a few more consolation races added next year, Tin? Plastic? Wood? Imagine a 6 race card all 6f Sprint Handicaps. I’m sure all of the big bookmakers would be falling over themselves to sponsor a race meeting like that and Gary would have found his punting nirvana!

How much fun could you have trying to get that Placepot up?

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 Today is the inaugural running of the first of the two consolation races….The Bronze Cup (4.05 Ayr)

Gary’s sticking with the ‘high draw is best’ philosophy and has gone for bottom weight Geojimali and consistent Solar Spirit

Then tomorrow is the now firmly established consolation Silver Cup (2.05 Saturday)

For the Silver race he’s again gone with the high stalls and picked an old favourite of his Joseph Henry and the 7f horse Horatio Carter

followed later in the afternoon by The Ayr Gold Cup (3.10)

And so to the main event where draw wise he’s gone to both sides of the track. His selections are  the same as mine and are actually the same as we made in last weeks Portland handicap. Big field specialist Everymanforhimself is his high drawn hope and surely must run well again if getting over his exertions from last week. From the other side of the track is the horse that let him down so badly last weekend Striking Spirit. The grounds drying out nicely at Ayr and if he can break a little faster this time around then he’s hopeful of a place at 33/1.

For the £100 to a Grand Challenge I will be placing 6 x £1ew Singles, 12 x 25pew Doubles and 8 x 25pew Trebles on his hopes (£22 total stake)

Bronze:Geojimali & Solar Spirit
Silver: Horatio Carter & Joseph Henry
Gold:Everymanforhimself & Striking Spirit

As always feel free to do what you like with them; back them, lay them or ignore them….

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Friday Fun

Hailed by Roger Federer as the best shot he’s ever hit.
Apparently this type of shot is called a hotdog….

Good luck,

Gavin.

P.S. Don’t forget all those of you still in the challenge to send your draw guess in by 2.00pm tomorrow at the latest. (See yesterday’s Post for details)

A final reminder to all those who got through round 1 that the 2nd Round takes place on Saturday. The problem this time is to work out the draw for the Ayr Gold Cup and whether you think it will be above or below 15.5 
i.e. if you think the winner will come from stalls 1-15 you will be on BELOW. 16 or higher and you will be on ABOVE.

Then you simply need to send the word Above or Below in the subject box to odd@nag-nag-nag.co.uk.

Things continue to progress well in the challenge and we’re now edging towards the £300 mark with 3 months still remaining. Here’s a quick re-cap on the last week or so and also a look to the future….

With restrained betting, selective picking, Gary’s great tip a few Saturday’s ago and my 5 winning selections last week the horses have been paying their way to account for the vast majority of the prizefund.

With my son’s help I had 3 attempts at winning the lottery last night and although I didn’t hit the jackpot I did get 3 numbers right for another tenner.

The poker is very up and down at the moment but I’m still in front overall. I’ve still got a lot of matches to play until I can release the cash but it’s not costing me anything as we’re playing with the Racing Post’s money. There’s another $1000 freeroll being played on Saturday night so I’ll try to do as well in that one as I did last time and bag some more free money.

If you’d like to track my progress you can go to a site called Sharkscope (www.sharkscope.com) enter my username Gavin_1968 and select the Racing Post Poker site. This will show every game I’ve played, how much I’ve won/lost and some fancy graphs showing my rise and fall and rise again!

With the imminent release of TTS and the Festival Trends for this weekend I haven’t been able to find the time to do the Roulette segment I was planning on doing but it will be coming soon….

I’ll also be looking over the coming weeks at in-running betting and the controversial tactic of arbing. Watch this space!

Gary’s ploughing through the Gold, Silver and Bronze Cups for me to come up with some selections for all 3 sprints and I plan on doing some sort of bet for the challenge. More news on that tomorrow.

You can see how everything has been progressing by clicking on the £100 - A Grand for Xmas link to the left or by clicking here >>>> http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/100-grand-for-xmas/

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Festival Trends

There’s still plenty of meetings left at Festival Trends this flat season with the Ascot QEII Festival, The Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch cards, Ayr Gold Cup, Arc, Newbury and the Breeders Cup all coming up.

Our special offer continues where the Festival Trends Season Ticket is available for just £20.

For this one special price you will receive every Guide for the remainder of the Flat Season, which will be well over 50 races in total and starts with two guides and 7 races from Newbury & Ayr this weekend (including the Ayr Gold and Silver Cups plus the No.1 Cambridgeshire trial The John Smiths Handicap from Newbury)

To purchase your exclusive season ticket >>>>Please Click Here<<<<

Good luck,

Gavin.

In yesterday’s post I posed a problem that has been the subject of much debate and argued amongst greater minds than even my Mensa brain.

One thing I should have added was that Chris Tarrant is the one who places the cheque in the box and therefore knows which one it is in.

The question was simply would you swop or keep with your original box?

Well, though the great minds may debate the puzzle, what isn’t in doubt is that you should ALWAYS SWOP from your original choice and the mathematics go something like…

When you first make your choice you have a 1 in 3 chance of getting it right. More importantly this would mean that you have a 2 in 3 chance of getting it wrong.

So when Tarrant dismisses one of the remaining two boxes your chosen box still gives you a 1 in 3 chance of winning while the other remains a 2 in 3 chance. This is because Tarrant has knowingly taken away an empty box.

By not switching you will only win once every 3 times you play and lose the other two.

By switching though you can expect to lose 1 time in 3 and therefore win 2 times out of 3.

If you’re still not sure you can try a working mock-up of the game (using cars and goats) at The New York Times website….

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/08/science/08monty.html?_r=1#

….Still baffled? Try the same problem with the lottery. If you picked your 6 numbers for the draw they would be approx 14 million - 1 to be the winning numbers. Not very good odds and there is a very high probability that you don’t have the correct entry.

Now imagine that Camelot ring you up to say that they will eliminate all but 2 of the possible number combinations and one of the lines will definitely win.  They give you the choice of your 6 numbers or one other set of 6 on the condition that you can only place 1 line.

I think you’d have to agree that given the poor odds you were of winning the Lottery before the phone call you’d be a fool not to use the other 6 numbers.

And if you still ended up losing then I’m afraid to say that you are the unluckiest man/woman on the planet!

Good luck,

Gavin.

P.S. With all this talk of the lottery going on I’ve got Dylan to use his Bingo machine again to pick me 3 lots of 6 numbers for tomorrow nights main draw. Much more fun than getting 24 strangers together and adding up columns of numbers. I’ll be placing the lines for the £100 to A Grand challenge and unlike Derren Brown I will put the numbers up on the page before the draw is made!

5 things I learnt over the weekend.

1) Jamie Spencer really is The Hankerchief…

i.e. he’s always in a pocket. The ride he gave Father Time in The Leger was definitely not his finest hour. I know I’m talking through my pocket, although I did have a nice saver on the winner, but he spent the entire period from 3 furlongs out trying to find a gap on a horse full of running. In a long distance race like the Leger you need to get your horse galloping as evenly as possible not stopping and starting as you try and find a gap. Asking a stayer to run in snatches like that doesn’t do the horse (or punters) any favours and uses up valuable energy that is needed at the end of the race. I’ve never been a fan of Frank Spencer and his ride on Saturday has done nothing to change my views on him, why Tom Queally wasn’t onboard I’ll never know.

2) York’s Acomb Stakes could be one of the 2yo races of the season…

The result of the race read

1st) Elusive Pimpernel
2nd) Emerald Commander - won easily next time out in a Listed race
3rd) Poets Voice - won the Group 3 Champagne Stakes on Saturday
4th) Vale of York - won Listed race at Goodwood
5th) Mata Keranjang - 2nd in the same Listed race at Goodwood

On his debut at Newmarket’s July meeting Elusive Pimpernel had Poets Voice and Emerald Commander back in 3rd and 4th. He is 2 from 2 this season and 20/1 for next years 2000 Guineas. Next stop is likely to be the Dewhurst. Could be some value there.

3) French Stewards are a law unto themselves…

Their rules on interference are different from ours and strictly applying these rules to yesterday’s Prix Vermeille there were grounds (however slim) for disqualifying Dar Re Mi. She slightly hampered the 5th horse home Soberania and if the stewards thought that this denied the filly a better place than she achieved then Dar Re Mi has to be disqualified and placed behind Soberina. In this case that’s exactly what they thought and she was therefore placed 5th and Soberania promoted to 4th. What is strange about this case is that when Dylan Thomas won the Arc (great result!) he too hampered a horse, the 4th home Soldier of Fortune, and definitely denied him a higher placing. He was allowed to keep the race that day but looked a certainty to be disqualified. Maybe the fact that the second horse in the Arc was also British trained swayed their decision whereas yesterday a certain French superstar was the runner-up. Sacre Bleu! Mais Non! Hors de question!

4) War Artist may yet win a Group 1 in Europe…

James Eustace must be another trainer reading this blog as in bringing War Artist back to 5f he was able to win a Group sprint yesterday and put himself very much in the reckoning for next months Prix de L’Abbaye. I’d long thought and written that this distance would bring out the best in him and although he managed to pick up a weak Group 2 in Germany over 6f I definitely think his best chance of Group 1 success will come over 5f. France’s most prestigious sprint beckons and I’ll be backing him accordingly.

5) I reckon I saw the Ayr Gold Cup winner in Saturday’s Portland…

With the ground likely to be softer and the distance over slightly further I’m pretty sure I saw the Ayr Gold Cup winner run in Saturday’s Portland Handicap. There’s only 7 days between the two races this year but these sprinters are tough animals and I don’t think that will affect him too much. I’ll let you know his name later in the week…

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Before I go I’ll leave you with another mathematical problem that has caused no end of debate since it was first aired on the Monty Hall TV show in America some years ago. I’ve altered the scenario a bit but the underlying problem is exactly the same…..

You’re in a TV quiz show and have made it through to the final round. Chris Tarrant, the host, now places 3 boxes in front of Box A, Box B and Box C. In one of the boxes is a cheque for £50,000 and in the other two boxes there is nothing. If you select the box with the cheque in you get to keep it, simple as that!

You make your choice (Box B) and you and the audience hold your breath in anticipation.

Chris Tarrant then announces ‘I’ll tell you what, I’m going to open one of the other boxes for you’

He proceeds to open Box C and reveals an empty box.

He now asks ‘Would you like to switch boxes?’

And that is the basically the question …..Should you switch boxes? or stick with your original choice?

I’ll reveal all tomorrow but if you want to leave a comment below, please do (simply click on the Comments link at the end of the Post)

Good luck,

Gavin.

On Channel 4 last night Derren Brown ‘revealed’ the secrets to how he picked on Live TV the 6 winning lottery numbers for Wednesday’s draw. But before you all go rushing out to get 24 friends round your house, put them in some sort of trance and have them free writing numbers let me tell you (if you didn’t already know), entertaining though the show was, I can categorically state that that was not how he did it!

If you still think it was how he did it, consider this - He claimed that 24 people wrote down 6 numbers and he took the mean average of these figures to come up with his lottery balls. How then did he manage to successfully pick Number 2? This would have meant that 24 people managed to all write down a very low number in exactly the same column. It would have only taken two people out of the 24 to have written a number over 20, or 5 people to chose a number over 10, in that specific column to ensure that the average couldn’t work out at 2…..

I don’t claim to know exactly how he managed it, as Paul Daniels claimed ‘there are lots of possible ways to do it,’ but using deep hypnosis and free writing was definitely not one of them.  The man is a master of illusion and what we saw on Wednesday was exactly that..an illusion.

One of my favourite bits of last night’s show was the part where by using ‘deep’ maths he was able to beat a man in a sequential game of heads or tails. These kind of Maths problems have always fascinated me and if you can use them to make a few quid down the pub it’s even better. You don’t have to be able to explain why it works as long as you know that it does!

One of the most famous of these maths phenomenoms (and also a great way of making a few quid off your mates) is the age-old Birthday Paradox. Quite simply it relies on the odds of two people in a room sharing the same birthday. In a room of 30 people what odds would you give on this event occuring?….. 365/1? 33/1? 20/1? 8/1? Evens?

If anyone wants to lay me any of those odds I’ll take them as suprisingly the true odds of two people sharing the same birthday in a sample of just 30 people is actually under 4/6!! In fact you would only need 23 people in a room for the odds to be even money.

So if you were thinking about inviting 24 strangers around to your house to try and use Derren Browns method of winning the lottery you’d actually be better off having an even £10 on two of them sharing the same birthday rather than trying to pick 3 winning numbers.

 Note that it’s not the odds of someone sharing the same birthday as yourself but any two people in the room being born on the same day.

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Before I have a look at today’s offering a word about yesterday’s horse. I had a few emails regarding the price of Glowing Praise, which I had put  up at 40/1, as apparently it didn’t last too long. When I wrote the post at about 8a.m. according to oddschecker.com it was 40/1 with Blue Square and one other firm who I can’t remember. I obviously wasn’t the only one who fancied it yesterday as by 9.30 the best price available was 16/1 meaning a lot of you weren’t able to get on that price. Sorry if you missed out but hopefully the collapse in the price deterred a lot of you from backing it as the horse finished, as all good each-way bets tend to do, one spot outside the places in 4th.

……At least the jockey remembered to take the blindfold off this time!

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Gary’s Portland Preview

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this particular feature are not necessarily those of the Nag-Nag-Nag Site or its authors. The Nag3 team can accept no liabilites regarding any possible losses from following these selections

In this race last year I was very keen on the chances of Sirens Gift, a trail blazer, who was only caught in the final 50yds by 2 fast finishers, Hogmaneigh and River Falcon. In that race the 1st 4 home were drawn 18-9-14-21 on soft ground and the year before they were 21-11-14-12 on good/firm. With this years ground looking to be on the fast side you could be mistaken for thinking that you need a high draw. Well, with Cheveton on Saturday his draw (1) didn’t look good according to the draw analysis but with the pace all on his side he got a good tow along and I feel it’s very much the same here. Looking at the draw the pace all seems low with Judge ‘N Jury(8), Cheveton(5), Ishetoo(1), Pavershooz(6) and Striking Spirit(7) all confirmed front runners and it looks highly likely they will dominate the early stages but with J’NJ and Cheveton being 5F specialists this extra 140yds may well see them off.  Markhab the likely fav is drawn well in stall 4 but will have to defeat the ratings as no horse rated over 100 has won this in the last 15years.

If I am wrong about the draw then Everymanforhimself looks the best bet from those drawn high or if the winner comes from the middle then the oldest horse in the race River Falcon gets my vote. Age has proved no barrier to success in the Portland over the last decade with Halmahera winning 3 times at the ages of 7,8 & 9 and Fantasy Believer winning aged 8 on his 4th run in the race.

We do have 3 horses on hat-tricks here Jaconet, Johannes and Santo Padre but I think this may be a step too far for them all. Another runner in tremendous form is Pavershooz who has won 3 of his last 4 with his only defeat coming against Striking Spirit. He meets that particular runner on 3lb worse terms today and it is he that is my idea of the best EW value and likeliest winner…..
Striking Spirit, trained by D.Nicholls, is drawn in 7 and ran in both the Stewards cup at Goodwood (finishing 8th) and the Great St Wilfred at Ripon (finishing 7th) from the unfavoured stands side. Despite running well in both races his rating has dropped from 103 at Goodwood and 100 at Ripon to 98 today which in my book makes the 33/1 offered by Ladbrokes an outstanding ew punt. 

Best of luck Gary! And don’t forget your big brother when you’re using a wheelbarrow to pick up your winnings.

 Good luck,

A very quick post today as I’m off for the second part of my Calendar Club training.

Before I go though I thought I’d mention that Glowing Praise runs today in the at Sandown. He’s one of my horses to follow and hasn’t had the best of luck since winning earlier in the season.

But the conditions today are perfect - going, distance, course, weight and as long as the jockey remembers to take the blindfold off before the horse leaves the stalls I am expecting a big run. He’s currently 40/1 with a couple of firms and that looks very tempting.

Also running today is Excusez Moi in the 3.50 Doncaster who you may remember was Gary’s follow up tip to Cheveton last Sunday. Unfortunately we didn’t get a run as he unseated the rider coming out of the stalls. Hopefully, compensation awaits today.

Right that’s all, I’m off but I’ll be back tomorrow for a St Leger special along with Gary’s look at The Portland Handicap.

Good Luck,

Gavin.

As promised yesterday, and as a way of showing you how the bet is laid out, here are my 9 horses for the Union Jack Patent Bet….

Written out like this it might be easier to see how the bet works. Each row of three going across is a patent, each column of three going down is a patent and the two diagonals are also patents.

 I’ll be placing a 10p Union Jack Patent (total stake £5.60) for the £100 to a Grand challenge.

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TTS 2009/2010

The new TTS manual will be released at the end of this month and have we got something really exciting lined up for this year! I’m not going to reveal what it is just yet but if you want to be one of the first to know then you can sign up for the updates and latest news below….

http://www.trainertrackstats.com/0910/ttssignup.html

There’ll also be plenty of Freebies (manuals, betting guides, systems etc…) given out in the week commencing 21st September so make sure you’re signed up by then.

(By entering your details at the site you are under no obligation whatsoever to purchase the TTS manual.)

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

The latest FT guide will be available this afternoon at 2pm and will be covering 8 races from Doncaster’s St Leger Meeting (Thursday - Saturday).

There is also our Special Big 5 Ante-Post Guide covering some of the big end-of-season races including the Autumn Double, The Cambridgeshire & Cesarewitch which is ready for download.

The £20 season ticket offer is still available and for this one-off payment you will receive every FT Guide until the end of the Flat Season. That’s Doncaster, Ayr, Ascot, Newmarket, Longhcamp, Breeders Cup plus many more…

>>>>FESTIVAL TRENDS SEASON TICKET<<<<

Good luck,

Gavin.

In Saturday’s post when mentioning my £100 - A grand bets I said I was planning on doing a Lucky 63 on my 6 selections. I subsequently received an email from a reader asking what such a bet was. This got me thinking that maybe I should do a post on the various multiple bets available as I know that the readership for this little blog covers the whole spectrum of punters from the novice to the expert and some of you may not realise the full range of bets that you can do. Or, if you know they are available you may not know what they are or how they work.

I’m sorry if this is all ‘old hat’ to any of you and if that’s the case simply scroll on past this section. However, there is one bet though at the end that you may not know about and it is a fairly affective way of covering 9 horses.

Having spent over 20 years working in betting shops and having taken100, 000’s of  bets I think I’ve seen them all including some very bizarre ones (has anyone heard of a Liverpool Round the Clock? for instance) but for this post I will concentrate on the more popular ones…….

1) DOUBLE

Two selections where both have to win. Your stake is placed on the first selection and any winnings are then put on the second.

e.g. £10 Double on 2/1 and 6/4 returns £75 (£10 on a 2/1 = £30. £30 on a 6/4 = £75)

If either of your selections is a Non-Runner the double becomes a Single on the remaining selection. If both selections are non-runners you get your stake back.

2) TREBLE, 4-FOLD, ACCUMULATOR

They all work in exactly the same way as a double but with more selections. They all have to win and the money you get back ‘rolls‘ onto the next choice.

3) TRIXIE

This is a bet that consists of three selections and is 4 bets i.e. A £1 trixie costs £4.

The 4 bets are made up of 3 Doubles and 1 Treble.

If we make the 3 selections A,B and C we can break the bet down as; 3 Doubles on A&B, A&C and B&C. The 1 treble is simply on AB & C.

You take each bet separately and work out your returns using the same method as described above in 1) and 2).

4) PATENT

A patent also consists of 3 horses but is made up of 7 bets. Quite simply it is a Trixie with 3 singles added on.

So again if your 3 selections are A,B and C you get 3 singles on A, B and C. 3 doubles on AB, AC and BC and a treble on ABC

5) ROUND ROBIN

The one bet during my betting shop years that was the most requested to be explained.

A Round Robin is 3 selections and 10 bets. The 10 bets are broken down into 3 doubles, 1 treble and 6 up and down bets.

What’s an up and down bet? I hear you cry.

Say we do a £1 round robin (£10 total stake) and again we will use the ABC to signify the 3 selections…

An up and down bet is simply £1 win A and if it wins we take £1 of the winnings and place it on B (the up part)
PLUS £1 win on B and if it wins we take £1 of the winnings and place it on A (the down part)

We repeat this for A and C and again for B and C giving us our 6 up and down bets.

Along with the 3 doubles AB, AC, BD and the 1 treble ABC we now have 10 bets

There is also a bet called a Super Round Robin which is usually referred to as a Flag bet. 

 This is a Round Robin but with 4 horses instead of 3 and costs 23 bets not 10.

It’s made up of 12 up and down bets, 6 doubles, 4 trebles and an accumulator

6) YANKEE

This is similar to a trixie but is for 4 selections and costs 11 bets.

If the selections are ABC and D the bets work out as

6 doubles on AB, AC, AD, BC, BD and CD
3 Trebles on ABC, ABD, ACD and BCD plus
a 4-fold on ABC and D

7) LUCKY 15

This is basically a Yankee with 4 Singles and is therefore 15 bets.
However, your bookmaker will pay you Double (sometimes treble) odds if you only have 1 winner and add a 10% (maybe more) Bonus to your winnings if you get all 4 correct. Because of these enhancements the bet is far superior to the Yankee.

8] SUPER YANKEE or CANADIAN

As the name suggests it’s a Yankee but bigger. In this case a Yankee with 5 horses and it is 26 bets.

Again if we make the selections ABCD and E the bets can be broken down as;

10 Doubles: AB, AC, AD, AE, BC, BD, BE, CD, CE and DE
10 Trebles: ABC, ABD, ABE, ACD, ACE, ADE, BCD, BDE, BCE and CDE
5 four-folds: ABCD, ABCE, ABDE, ACDE and BCDE
1 Accumulator: ABCDE

9) LUCKY 31

Just like the Lucky 15 is a Yankee with singles the Lucky 31 is a Super Yankee with 5 singles. As the name suggests it costs 31 bets.

Again, your bookmaker will pay double or treble the odds for 1 winner but will give you a bigger bonus (15-20%) for getting all 5 correct.

10) HEINZ

So called because it is 57 bets (according to the tins of beans the number of Heinz varieties) it’s basically the next step up from the Super Yankee. 6 horses with the usual doubles, trebles, 4-folds etc.

Once more, the selections are ABCDEF and the bets break down as;

15 Doubles: AB, AC, AD, AE, AF, BC, BD, BE, BF, CD, CE, CF, DE, DF, EF
20 Trebles: ABC, ABD, ABE, ABF, ACD, ACE, ACF, ADE, ADF, AEF, BCD, BCE, BCF, BDE, BDF, BEF, CDE, CDF, CEF, DEF
15 4-folds: ABCD, ABCE, ABCF, ABDE, ABDF, ABEF, ACDE, ACDF, ACEF, ADEF, BCDE, BCDF, BCEF, BDEF, CDEF
6 5-folds: ABCDE, ABCDF, ABCEF, ABDEF, ACDEF, BCDEF
1 Accumulator: ABCDEF

11) LUCKY 63

No prizes for guessing that the Lucky 63 is a Heinz with 6 singles and costs 63 bets.

The bookies again pay you at least double odds for 1 winner along with Bonuses for all 6 winners of around 25%. Some even pay a smaller bonus (usually 10%) if you manage to get 5 out of the 6 right.

Words of caution: Bookmakers love these types of bets for the simple reason that if your first selection loses you have in affect lost over 50% of you money. To explain, say you did a £1 Lucky 63 and your first selection lost. You now have 5 selections remaining and your bet is now a £1 Lucky 31. Only one sixth of your selections have run so far but that 1 loser has cost you £32 or more than 50% of your outlay.

After the Heinz the next bet in the ladder is the Super Heinz (7 selections and 120 bets) and then the appropriately named Goliath (8 selections and 247 bets). I won’t break those bets down as only a fool would consider one of these bets! (and yes, I’ve done plenty of them in my time)

12) UNION JACK

A patriotic sounding bet but one of the worst you could possibly do. It is made up of 9 selections and is written out in 3 rows each with 3 selections.

Think of it as a O’s and X’s grid where each bet is simply a treble on each row of 3, each column of 3 and the two diagonal lines. This gives us 8 lines or bets.

Sounds cheap but if you consider that it is possible to have 6 winners from your 9 selections and not win anything I think that shows what rank bad value this bet is.

However there is one more bet that I’ve yet to mention and is for those of you who simply must back 9 horses in a bet. It’s a rarely used bet and one that not many people know about. It combines two bets together and can be quite affective……

13) UNION JACK PATENT

Simply put, it’s the same design as a Union Jack Bet (3 rows of 3 selections) but instead of each row, column and diagonal being a treble they become Patents. It costs just 56 bets and is a very economical way of backing 9 horses.

When writing out the bet put your most fancied runner in the middle box as it appears in 4 of the 9 patents, your next 4 most fancied runners in the corners as each one appears in 3 of the 9 patents and your 4 least fancied selections in the remaining boxes. You only need 1 winner to make a return and the single will be a minimum of twice your unit stake. Also, the beauty of this bet is that, unlike the Lucky 63 bet, you don’t wipe out so much of your original stake with each loser you back.

If you’re still confused by the bet then tomorrow I will use myself as a betting guinea pig and find 9 horses to show you how the bet works.

————

Now you know the bets you may want to have a go at some of them.

Don’t be afraid if you can’t work out the returns as obviously your bookmaker will do this for you. But if you want to make sure you are paid correctly or just want to know how much a particular bet returns there are a few sites on the internet that will work it all out for you. The best one I have come across is…

http://www.bettingmad.com/newsettlernew.asp 

It takes up to 8 selections, includes each way betting, Rule 4’s and covers all the bets named above. You can also put in up to 4 bets at a time.

Oh, and it’s FREE!

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Kieren Fallon

It was brilliant to see Fallon boot home a big priced treble yesterday and it was a great way of silencing the doubters who were beginning to question his talents in this latest chapter of his career. It was always going to take a week or so for him to get back into the swing of things and for people to start sniping after a couple of losing days was a little premature to say the least. He won’t win on every horse he rides but I’d rather have him ride any of my fancies over any jockey riding today.

Whatever your views about Fallon the person don’t let it cloud your judgement over Fallon the jockey. He’s back, he’s going to be as good, if not better, as he ever was and he’s going to be champion jockey again. Barring injury I really believe that that will happen next year and the 4/1 just has to be taken. Get on now!

 Good luck,

Gavin.

I think I’m going to have to start the day with a big thank-you to my brother Gary who gave us such a great tip yesterday and saved my blushes after a few wayward tips of my own. He stated the horses case very well and I’m glad I went with him by making him a 2pts each way selection.

It really was a cracking shout and I’ve passed on the numerous emails I received over to him, to which he has asked me to thank you all. I’m glad so many of you were on.

He really loves sprint handicaps and when he’s in form he’s worth taking notice of. With the next two weekends featuring the Portland Handicap, Ayr Gold, Silver and Bronze Cups I think we’ll be hearing a bit more from him.

In fact he’s already emailed me to tell me that he’ll be playing up his winnings on Excusez Moi (currently 16/1) in the 3.45 at York. I have to admit that this one doesn’t look as obvious to me as Cheveton yesterday but I’ll go with it because he’s in red hot form at the moment (he also backed Yes Mr President and Regal Parade yesterday). Let’s have £2ew at 16/1 for the Xmas challenge too.

For those of you following my £100 to a Grand quest you’ll see that after yesterday’s winning bets and a profitable night on the Poker tables I have now passed the £250 mark. A quarter of the way there and a month gone makes me just about on target. I’ll be trying my hand at Roulette this week so things could be set to take a turn for the worse!

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LUNCHTIME PROFIT ALERTS

I haven’t done this for a while but for those of you looking for an easy to use, easy to follow betting service that is ridiculously cheap then I may  have just found the answer.

It’s called Lunchtime Profits Alert (LPA from now on to save my weary digits) and you couldn’t ask for a more straightforward betting advisory service.

Simply put, every Friday lunchtime you will receive an email alert giving you some top advice for the weekends sporting action.

But where this service differs from your usual betting tips are the markets that these guys bet on. Not for them the normal fixed odds coupons and 3 match accumulators. No, the self confessed stats geeks over at LPA spend their weeks analysing all the obscure stuff that you and I wouldn’t even consider betting on. Take a recent LPA email which recommended;

 • QPR to get more corners in the game than Nottingham Forest;

• The total ‘booking points’ to be 50 or less between Lazio and Roma;

• Ten corners or more between Bayern Munich and Berlin.

All 3 were winners giving excellent returns for a bet I wouldn’t have considered in a million years. You don’t even have to know what it all means as the LPA email will tell you where and how to place your wager.

And now for the best bit…This service costs just £27 for a whole year (that’s less than £2.50 a month!!) and if you don’t double your initial investment in 12 months they guarantee to refund your money. Now that’s a great offer! You might be thinking that it’s all well and good making these sort of promises if you don’t plan on being around next year. But there’s no need to worry on that score because LPA comes from one of the biggest sports betting companies on the web and this guarantee is rock solid.

So to recap…It’s £27 for every weekly Lunchtime Alert for 12 months, your money back if you don’t double your initial investment and each alert will arrive on a Friday and only take about 5 minutes to place your bets. Simples…

Click below to read some more about it and see some more of the recent LPA winners……

>>>>LUNCHTIME PROFIT ALERT<<<<

Oh and of course, like every product we review on this site you also get a full 30 day refund guarantee as well.

Good luck,

Gavin.