My friend in the Phillipines has managed to clean the website of whatever it was that caused it to malfunction and he’s got me back up and running in double quick time.
The last month has been a bit of a nightmare for us here at Nag3 but hopefully everything is now okay and we can look forward to a bright new future on the new site.
The daily tip is back from today and you may also notice a new tab below it on which I’ll be explaining a bit more about later in this post. But first…..
5 Things I’ve learnt this week……
War Artist will win a race when dropped back to 5f…..
The horse came from South Africa in 2007 with a big reputation and as a Group 1 winner over 6f he looked set to challenge for top sprinting honours here in Britain. Things haven’t quite worked out that way and his two runs this season have been very poor but with a 2nd in the Golden Jubilee and a 3rd in the July Cup amongst his runs last year he has shown that he can mix it with the very best. There’s still chance for him to bag a big prize before the end of the season but I don’t think it will be over 6f.
The way he has run in both races this year makes me believe that he is crying out for a drop back to the minimum trip. In his latest run on Saturday he came to lay down his challenge in very impressive fashion only for him to fade back into 4th place as he didn’t see out the final furlong. It may be that the soft going has found him out but personally I think it’s the trip and over 5f I fancy him to get back in the winners enclosure.
The Prix de L’abbaye on Arc day looks an obvious target or maybe even the Breeders Cup Sprint.
I missed the best value bet of the season….
I doubt I’m the only one who was kicking himself on Saturday but when Midday went out in the betting to 7/1 for the Nassau Stakes I should have filled my boots and got back all I lost on her in the Oaks. You hear people talking about value in betting all the time and here was a classic example of a horse so overly priced she just had to be backed.
Needless to say I didn’t step up and take advantage of the bookies generosity which left me feeling not only annoyed with myself but with badly bruised shins also.
Simon Holt is a really good commentator….
When the weather closed in at Goodwood on Saturday there must have been a real chance that racing would be abandoned. Visibility was down to less than a furlong and with 26 runners to call in the Stewards Cup Simon Holt had a real challenge to commentate on the race. He had very little time to sort out the runners as they appeared out of the mist and to correctly call the race finish as he did was a very good piece of commentating indeed. Hats off to Holty…
Tom Queally is set for the very top….
Henry Cecil’s appointment of Tom Queally as stable jockey must go down as another masterstroke from the master of Warren Place. The jockey seems to be getting better as the season goes on and Saturday’s Nassau Stakes win was his 3rd Group 1 race this year. He gave Midday a fantastic ride and once hitting the front was never going to get caught. Every interview he gives is full of insight and, from what I’ve read, trainers seem to be full of admiration for the feedback he is able to give them about their horses.
The young jockey is going to the very top and is helping put Henry Cecil back where he belongs, as one of the leading trainers in the country. The Richard Quinn years are now, thankfully, a distant memory.
Las Vegas bookies make the likes of Hills and Ladbrokes look positively generous…
My quest to find some Breeders Cup futures betting (ante-post betting to me andyou) proved fruitless with no casino in Vegas, as of yet, betting on the event. You can normally rely on Ballys Casino to have at least a couple of the Breeders races available but I was amazed, anddismayed, to find that their Sports Book has recently closed down. Even the mighty Caesars and Hilton Sports Books were bereft of any Breeders Betting.
What I did find though was some futures betting on our very own Barclays Premier League.
What I didn’t find though was any value in their prices…..
They bet 6/5 Man Utd, 2/1 Chelsea, 3/1 Liverpool, 6/1 Arsenal, 8/1 Man City, 40/1 Tottenham, 60/1 Everton, 75/1 Aston Villa, 75/1 West Ham 100/1 -500/1 the remainder
I know they probably don’t take that much on this particular market but those front 5 in the betting take out 133% and they bet the complete list to a whopping 144%.
When you consider Hills bet the market to 117%, Ladbrokes to 115% andshopping around all firms for the best prices you can get just about 99%, I think it shows just why Vegas makes about $2 billion a year from gambling.
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£100 to a Grand before Christmas…..
Starting shortly I’m going to try an experiment to see if I can turn £100 into £1000 all before Christmas just by using good old fashioned gambling. I’ll be betting and laying the horses, trialling systems, using tips, trying football betting, playing poker, roulette, blackjack, lottery in fact just about any gambling medium known to man.
I have a few tricks up my sleeve to help me along the way and I will be taking advantage of all the free bets I can get my hands on.
It should be fun and you can follow my progress here on this blog. And, however much I manage to make I’ll be giving it all away to one lucky reader.
I’m still drawing up an action plan and some basic bankroll management rules so expect more news to follow….
Good luck,
Gavin.