In what has been a poor weeks racing so far, and one that probably won’t get much better due to the main meeting on Saturday being the Shergar Cup, I thought it might be a good time to take an ante-post look at a few races coming up in the next couple of weeks….

The Tote Ebor

This is the richest handicap run in Europe so you can expect a large field of top class handicappers to turn up but recent runnings have seen quite a few shock results including 100/1 winner Mudawin in 2006.

There are currently 69 horses declared but with a maximum field of 22 allowed to go to post we can probably forget the bottom 30 or so runners as they probably won’t get in the race.

There are three things to note about the Ebor…

1) 2005 winner Sergeant Cecil was the first horse older than 5 to win since Sea Pigeon in 1979.

2) Horses rated over 102 have struggled to win this race as have those horses carrying more than 9-04

3) The last 7 and 8 of the last 9 winners had their last run at either Ascot or Glorious Goodwood.

The horse that I really like at the moment is the Michael Bell trained The Betchworth Kid. He was my big tip for the Northumberland Plate where he was backed from 20/1 into 17/2 and ran okay to finish 9th but put up by far his best career performance last time out when running 3rd in the Goodwood Cup. The strong pace that you usually get in the Ebor will suit his style of running and as he’s won on good/firm and soft ground we won’t have to worry to much about the ever changing weather conditions.

At 25/1 with Paddy Power he looks interesting at the moment.

The Nunthorpe Stakes

Along with the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot the Nunthorpe shares the title as Britains premier 5f sprint race.

Unlike its Ascot counterpart though the race conditions allow 2yo’s to compete against their elders in receipt of a hefty weight allowance. Three juveniles were beaten in the race last year but Kingsgate Native won in 2007 as a 2yo as did Lyric Fantasy in 1992. Those aged 7 and over are the ones to avoid with just 9yo Bahamian Pirate managing to win for that age group from the 27 that tried in the last decade.

Other things of note for the Nunthorpe are that 12 of the last 13 winners arrived via Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood or Newmarket’s July meeting, all British winners in the last decade were rated 109+ and the last three 3yo winners all won the July Cup.

Radiohead is the only 2yo entered this year and in receipt of 19lb and upwards from the rest of the field this easy Group 2 Royal Ascot winner looks a bit of value at around 8/1

The St. Leger

The oldest and last of the 5 classics run in Britain has become of less importance over the years with very few of the top 3yo colts taking their chance in the race but with last years winner Conduit going on to win a Breeders Cup and a King George it may spark a revival in the St Leger’s fortunes.

St Leger winners usually come into the race in good form with the last 13 winners having finished in the top 4 on their previous run. (9 won including the last 5, 2 were 2nd, one was 3rd and one was 4th)

Amazingly, 11 of the last 12 winners ran in the top 4 of either The Great Voltigeur at York or the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

Aiden O’Brien, Saeed Bin Suroor, John Dunlop and John Gosden have between them won 10 of the last 13 St Leger’s.

Another thing to remember is that all of the last 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter making it a race for fancied runners.

With the Great Voltigeur not having been run yet it makes it difficult to use all of these trends but there is one horse in the field that interests me a great deal and he is more than likely to appear in that York race. Father Timewon well at Royal Ascot and the way he was running on that day suggests he is a real Leger horse in the making. He is in fact the highest rated British trained horse in the field at the moment and after he wins the Voltigeur the 6/1 he is now will look outstanding value.

Which makes a nice looking ante-post patent…

Ebor: The Betchworth Kid 25/1

Nunthorpe: Radiohead 8/1

St Leger: Father Time 6/1

———-

I’ll be starting my attempt to turn £100 in a grand from next Monday when I’ll also be outlining my early strategy along with details on how you can win all of the money I make.

————

And finally, there is one horse that I fancy today running in possibly the worst handicap run all season. The 2.50 Yarmouth is a lowly 6f, class 6 maiden handicap for horses rated 0-65  but something has to win it and the one that catches my eye is Dance Club.

Her form figures are less than inspiring and in her 5 runs to date she has yet to finish better than 6th but there are grounds for optimism that today could be the day for her.

Dance Club went into my notebook on her last run when after being slowly away she came to challenge quite strongly 2 furlongs from home before fading out of it. That race was run over a mile and today’s drop in trip is just what she needs. Hayley Turner takes the ride today and with a drop of 4lb in the ratings, as long as she can break smartly, this 3yo filly looks set to run a big race. 14/1 looks a big price. 

Good luck,

Gavin.