Matt’s syndicate horse Obvious runs in the 5.25 Warwick and it’s an exciting time for all us members and especially Matt who has put a lot of time and effort into the project. Unfortunately due to long standing commitments I’m unable to be there myself today but I’d like to wish all concerned the very best of luck (though I’m sure you’ll all have a great day, win or lose).

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5 things from the weekend….

1) I won’t be getting carried away with Delegator….

It was a Group 2 race and he won it well but I won’t be in too much of a rush to back him when he goes back up to Group 1 class. He beat a field of decent horses on Saturday, and Ordnance Row did the form no harm when coming out to win on the Sunday, but on the ratings he was well ahead and was fully entitled to win as he did. I don’t think he has improved any for the move to Godolphin and he’ll find the likes of Rip Van Winkle in the QEII and Goldikova in the Breeders Cup a different challenge all together.

2) Sea the Stars form is as rock solid as you can get….

What Delegator’s win on Saturday did do though is pay another compliment to the incredible form of Sea The Stars and this years 2000 Guineas. I can’t remember a 2000 Guineas where so many horses have come out of the race and won as many Group races as they have this year. Sea The Stars is obviously one of the greatest horses to have run in recent times and like most people in racing will be hoping that the ground stays suitable for the eagerly awaited clash between STS and Fame and Glory this weekend.

3) I love it when a plan comes together….

It was nice to see Red Badge win on Saturday and reward my large financial investment as anyone who read my ‘horses to follow’ list will have known how keen I was on this one. After his last run a step up to 7f  looked exactly what he needed and so it turned out with a gutsy late run inside the final furlong. It was only a 1/2 length victory but the runner up was very strongly fancied and I’ll be keeping on the right side of Red Badge for the time being.

4) Strange goings on at Newmarket….

Another of my horses to follow ran at Newmarket on Saturday and for the second time in three runnings the jockey was late in taking the blindfold off, most bizarre. This caused Glowing Praise to miss the break, again, and though he moved up to challenge  3f out the exertion of making up the lost ground so quickly took his toll and he faded out of it. I will keep the faith with him and if he drops back to class 4, steps back up to a mile and the jockey takes the blindfold off in time! he will win again.

5) Poker is more infuriating than backing horses…

I played in a satellite tournament yesterday and was cruising along with a nice stack of chips and just 17 of the 86 original players remaining. I only had to make it into the top 10 to win a seat in the big game this weekend. I got dealt two Aces (the best starting hand you can get) and got all my chips in against a player with two 9’s. So far so good as I am now about 1/4 favourite to win the hand. A flop of 2-7-5 makes me a 1/9 favourite, a turn card of an 8 and I’m still 1/8 but then the soul destroying, mind crushing 6 hits the river giving him a straight and me an empty feeling in the pit of my stomach. I guess this is how in-running punters feel when their horse cruises into the lead only to be denied close home. I only wish I could have sold some of my chips back to lock in a profit. I officially now hate poker.

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It’s a Bank Holiday Monday so that can only mean two things. Rain and poor racing.

But that’s not going to stop me from having a bet! Three for today…

1) SAFIN. He runs in the Selling Handicap Hurdle at 2.55 Cartmel and reappears quickly after being brought down late last week. The cheekpieces were applied that day and they looked to be doing the trick as he seemed to be travelling very well before his unlucky exit from the race. He’s a multiple flat winner this year, goes on soft ground and looks worth a small bet.

2) CHICITA BANANA. She goes in the Nursery at 2.30 Warwick and her high profile connections are looking to get their money back after their gamble last time out went astray. It looked to me as though the 7f that day was the cause of her downfall and this drop back in trip should help her. Another who looks worth a small investment.

3) LAYALI AL ANDALUS. Another runner in a Nursery in Newcastle’s 4.00. He carries topweight and represents the powerful Mark Johnston yard who have been cleaning up in nurseries of late. The way he routed the field in a Doncaster maiden marked him down as a useful colt and with some big entries later in the season it’s clear that the stable hold him in high regard. He’s my bet of the day and I just wish I could get the 3/1 that is forecast in today’s Racing Post.

Indian Trail who was on my list of horses to follow but has now been scrubbed out runs in the 3.10 Epsom. This is the scene of his biggest win (on Derby Day) and is a bit of a drop in class to the races he has contested recently. Expect him to run well now I have given up on him.

Good luck,

Gavin

I have a really busy, action packed few days ahead of me so posting may be a little hit and miss this week. With my son going back to school next Wednesday (where has the Summer gone?) we thought we’d go away this weekend to see my half of the family down in Devon as it will be our last chance for a while. Fingers crossed for a nice few days weather-wise…..

On Sunday I’ve got a poker tournament to go to where I’ll be trying to win a seat in the big Grosvenor UK Poker Tour which takes place in Cardiff next Thursday. It’s £1000 to enter direct and the missus won’t let me spend that kind of money on a poker tournament so playing a satellite is sort of a compromise. I’ve got to make it into the top 10 on Sunday to win a seat. Fingers crossed for some good cards….

There’s also a side event £100 poker tournament on Monday which I’ll be playing in as, on our return from the West Country, the missus is off to her mum’s for a couple of days. While the cat’s away…

Then as I said it’s back to school for Dylan on Wednesday which happens to be the same day I have  my annual Calendar Club ‘training‘. For those of you who don’t know, I work for the Calendar Club in Cardiff 3 months of the year (October - December ) which affords me the luxury of not having to work the other 9 months and gets us our annual family holiday in Vegas. So it’s back down to Devon (Exeter) for a days refresher course on how to sell calendars. Not rocket science I grant you but it’s a good day to catch up with everyone and see this years range. It should be a good season for me this time around because Cardiff opens a brand new shopping centre in October which will make it one of the largest retail centres in Britain. Fingers crossed for a good trading year…

Right, let’s get back on track…

Brand new Welsh racetrack, Ffos Las, hold their official opening  meeting today and have put on some quality racing to mark the occasion. There’s a £30,000 handicap hurdle and a £50,000 handicap chase on the card and as you’d expect for that kind of money it has attracted all the big name trainers, including some from Ireland.

In the 3.55 (Handicap Hurdle) it’s interesting to see VALAINcontest this race as he targeted the handicap chases at last years big NH Festivals. He has though run well over the smaller obstacles on his last two starts and with Tony McCoy booked this Irish raider must go close. Helens Vision looks absolutely thrown in off just 10-03 and if she could recapture some of her old form they won’t see which way she went. It might be worth having a £1ew at 50/1 in the hope that her new stable has rejuvenated her.

The 4.25 (Handicap Chase) is an absolute cracker of a race and it’s interesting to see that McCoy doesn’t fancy getting down to 10-00 for any of Jonjo’s or JP McManusus’s runners. It might also suggest that they don’t want any of their runners putting up any overweight. HOO LA BALOO had a terrible season last year but this did result in his handicap rating plummeting to a nice looking 143. He took advantage of this new rating last week when in a Listed race at Newton Abbot he finished an excellent second to a race fit rival in receipt of 11lb. With that run under his belt he can gain compensation off the same handicap mark. 6/1 looks good.

Over at HQ in the 3.30 Henry Cecil brings Notice Given back to the track after a very disappointing run last time out. Great things are expected of this 2yo and it was therefore a bit disconcerting to see him run so poorly on his debut but I’m prepared to forgive him that run as he patently didn’t appreciate the very soft ground at Yarmouth. I think we’ll see the real NOTICE GIVEN this afternoon and if you can get anywhere near the 8/1 the Racing Post are forecasting I’d take it.

For the £100 to a Grand Challenge I’ll be having 3 x £1ew Singles and a 25pew Patent on the three.

With regards to the Challenge, for all those who entered, Round 1 saw  Odd number 21 come out and I’ll be emailing all the winners over the weekend with details of Round 2.

To keep up to date with the Prize Fund level you can click on the Tab in the Left Hand menu titled: ‘£100 - Grand for Xmas’

The next stage of the challenge will see me have a go on one of my favourite casino games….Roulette. I won’t be risking too much of the cash on this particular challenge but I have 3 Roulette ’systems’ which may help us boost the prize fund. I know it’s not horse-racing and a lot of you won’t be interested but I’ll post the 3 systems anyway just so you can see how affective (or not!) they are.

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Friday Fun

There hasn’t been too much Friday Fun recently but I just had to put up Usain Bolts blistering recent run in the 100 metres final of the World Athletic Championships. The guy is a freak of nature and a joy to watch. How low can he go?….

Good luck,
Gavin.

Staking Machine

A couple of months back you may remember that I ran a series of posts looking at various staking plans and staking systems.

If you don’t remember or if you’ve only just started to read this ‘ere blog then you can find all the relevant details by clicking on the ‘Staking Plan’ tab on the left hand menu (it’s the one at the bottom).

The posts went down well and attracted quite a bit of feedback regarding the usefulness (not useless for a change) of the information. I had always planned to follow up the series of posts with a look at a fantastic piece of staking software but due to one thing and another it’s always been on the back burner. Until now…

The piece of software I refer to is called The Staking Machine, or TSM for short, and it’s basically a very handy piece of kit that can apply 35 different staking plans to your betting. If you’re serious about your betting and looking for any edge to maximise your profits then the TSM could well be the most important piece of betting software you ever purchase.

First off though let me make it absolutely clear that the TSM isn’t a betting system and doesn’t predict winners or losers.

No, what it is, is a betting software tool and what it tries to do is analyse which specific staking plan works best for your selections or betting system and aims to show you the different results you will get by trying out various staking plans.

It works by you inputting your past results and then letting you play about with the numerous features and staking plans to find the one that suits your style of betting the best.

It has staking plans suitable for both Laying and Backing (including each way) and can include any commission you may have to pay on your wagers, it handles Dutching, minimum and maximum stakes, it can handle up to 30,000 bets at any one time and provides incredible data analysis. All of the plans I mentioned in my posts are there (Fibonnaci, La Bouchere, Martingale etc.) plus many more I didn’t review.

But my favourite feature is the Random Bets Generator that generates up to 4000 random bets to simulate your previous selections. Now obviously this is as the very name suggests, random, and doesn’t guarantee future profits or loss but as we saw when we looked at the staking plans, most work by trying to retrieve your previous losses and this can get quite expensive. So before you jump in feet first it’s always a good idea to see if your particular system and staking plan is going to send you into bankruptcy or into retirement on some tropical island.

But do remember when using this particular feature that as we are back-fitting our previous results we can never be sure that things will carry on in the same way. Past glories are no guarantee of future success.

 If you want to stay firmly in the present and forget about future or past glories then TSM can simply be used to automatically calculate your next stake depending on which system you are using. A great help if you are using a mathmatically complex staking system like the Kelly Plan.

One final thing to remember. The Staking Machine doesn’t claim to be able to turn a losing system into a long term winning one. If your system sucks then no amount of fancy staking is going to change that!

If you want to have a look at the web-site and see a clearer explanation of TSM and it’s many features then click below….

>>>>THE STAKING MACHINE<<<<

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Horses to follow….

The latest additions to my list can be found in the tab to the left of the page entitled ‘Horses To Follow’. There are now 13 horses left on the page following the removal of some of the previous entries.

There is one running later today at Ayr and a couple of others are declared over the weekend. Not all have their optimum conditions but they may be worth a small interest.

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Festival Trends

The £20 offer for the rest of the flat season still stands and the Goodwood Mini-Guide for this weekend will be available from 1pm this afternoon. There will also be a 5 race ante-post guide out next week which will be looking at some of the big end of season races including the Autumn Double (The Cambridgeshire & The Cesarewitch).

To purchase your exclusive season ticket >>>>Please Click Here<<<<

Good luck,

Gavin.

 The last 4 days have seemed like a month to me as my computer has been in for repairs due to a rather bizarre accident. The missus has been over the moon as I haven’t been tapping away at a keyboard all day long but I feel like a part of me is missing and I’m so glad to have my lappie back. Not least because I haven’t been able to play any poker for 4 days, arrrgh!

And the accident? While playing a game of Scooby Doo Hide and Seek (don’t ask!) with my son I found the perfect hiding place for said cartoon mutt but feeling chuffed with his concealment I didn’t look where I was going and  tripped over the laptop power cable. This ripped the power adaptor from the power slot, damaging it in the process, and left me with nothing but the charge in the battery (plus no way of re-charging it).  So one trip to the local PC repair shop, 4 days wait and £80 later I’m back in business. Zoinks!

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There was an interesting piece in the Racing Post yesterday which you may or may not have seen and it relates to the apparent ‘Dubai Bounce’ factor. The idea being put forward is that those horses that ran at the Dubai Carnival are now struggling to retain their form when racing back on home soil.

Indeed, if you look at the winners from the Dubai World Cup meeting you can see that this is the case, as not a single horse that won on the card has won again since. Well Armed, Eastern Anthem, Gladiatorus, Regal Ransom, Two Step Salsa… all big names and all big winners on the night but every one stuffed out of sight on their next run (and in some cases the run after that as well).

I have absolutely no idea why it should be as horses run all around the world these days with no apparent side affects but it’s definitely worth remembering for next year ….

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The countdown has now begun in earnest with less than 2 weeks until we see the return of the King…. King Kieren that is. 

Keiren Fallon resumes race riding on September 4th and I for one can’t wait to see the greatest (but unfortunately flawed) jockey of the modern era back on the track. His enforced absence has been a major loss for the sport and for all punters.

For me, his ride on Dylan Thomas in the Arc will live long in the memory……

There are plenty of betting specials on offer regarding Mr Fallon but most of the value has long since gone. 2/5 he rides a winner on his comeback day doesn’t look great nor does 4/7 he rides a Group winner in 2009 but if I had to have a bet on any of the markets (which obviously I don’t but hey, I can’t help myself) I might be tempted to have a few quid on him riding a Group 1 winner this year at 11/4. There are still plenty of Group 1 races still to be run this year and he’s bound to pick up a ride or two (or three) in them and I doubt many of them will be no-hopers.

I’ve convinced myself, it’s time for a bet. Get on at 11/4 at Blue Square.

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Trainer Track Stats.

To all of you who are eagerly awaiting the new version of the TTS manual, I can tell you that it will be available shortly as we now have most of the data assembled and it’s just a case of sorting the final bits of wheat from the chaff.

More news will follow very soon…..

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Festival Trends

The next two months will see a very busy time for Festival Trends with the Leger Meeting, Ascot QEII Festival, The Cambridgeshire and Cesarewitch cards, Goodwood, Ayr Gold Cup, Arc, Newbury and the Breeders Cup all coming up.

As a very special offer to all our readers we have made the Festival Trends Season Ticket available for just £20.

For this one special price you will receive every Guide for the remainder of the Flat Season, which will be well over 50 races in total, starting with a mini-guide from Goodwood this weekend. There will also be a Special 5 race Ante-Post Guide available next week covering The Ayr Gold Cup, The Arc, The St Leger, The Cambridgeshire and The Cesarewitch.

To purchase your exclusive season ticket >>>>Please Click Here<<<<

Good luck,

Gavin.

5 things I learnt at York this week…..

1) Jockey’s are either stubborn or stupid….

How else can you explain the way they blindly followed each other down the centre of the course in the races immediately following the 2.15 after Dream Lodge had stuck to the rails to run the race of his life and finish 2nd in a Group 3 with some very smart opponents toiling behind him. He was the lowest rated of all the runners and the outsider of the field so it would make sense to think that he had gained an advantage by running up the far side of the track. But no, not if you’re a jockey. They had made their mind up that racing down the centre was the best way to go and all the runners in the City of York stakes came down the middle with not one of them daring to try the far side route. Crazy….

2) Owners don’t deserve any sympathy.

4 runners in the International Stakes and all were Irish…What a state of affairs when a Group 1 race with hundreds of thousands of pounds in prizemoney cannot muster a single home runner. All 4 to line up were Irish, two were pacemakers and though the race itself was a cracker I can’t believe that there isn’t a single horse in Britain who couldn’t get within 32 lengths of Mastercraftsman over 1m 2f. If there is an owner of a 10f horse rated over 100 who isn’t kicking himself for not taking his chance I’d be very surprised. £64k for finishing third or £32k for fourth and all you had to do is beat a pacemaker? You don’t get that sort of money for WINNING certain Group races and you need to win an awful lot of handicaps to make that kind of cash. 

3) The St. Leger just got interesting….

With both big race fancies Alwaary and Harbinger out the back of the field in the Great Voltigeur and winner Monitor Closely unlikely to take his chance in the final classic of the season the St Leger has been blown wide open. Kite Wood is the favourite and has done nothing wrong since The Derby but I’m sticking with my fancy Father Time and backing him again at 14/1. He moved up very stylishly at York before not going through with his effort and coming home in 3rd. He looked to me in need of softer ground and with that quite likely at Doncaster he is still high on my list. 7 of the last 12 St Leger winners ran in the Great Voltigeur but didn’t necessarily win it with finishing positions of 2413211 proving that a top 4 finish is what is important.

4) Tax Free should not be backed at Ascot…

It’s patently clear now that should Tax Free ever run at Ascot again we should avoid him like the plague. After his excellent 4th in the Nunthorpe yesterday it brings his career to 34 runs of which he has finished in the top 5 on 30 occasions and has won 14 times. He really is a genuine top class sprinter who always runs his race….Except at Ascot! Of the 4 times he has been out of the top five 3 have occured at the Berkshire track finishing 15th of 28, 11th of 20 and 14th of 15. Something to remember come next June.

5) Red Badge is one to watch out for…

I doubt I was the only one who was scribbling down the name of this horse after his run in the sales race on Thursday as he looked desperately unlucky not to have been involved in the finish. He had run some fine races before then including a 3rd to Buzzword and a 2nd at Glorious Goodwood and he is surely a winner waiting to happen. A maiden race should now be a formality. I await his return with great anticipation.

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Not a great day’s racing for a Saturday but I’ve managed to dig out four for today…

In the 2.55 Chester Henry Cecil runs Unleashed and this one should appreciate the drop into handicap company. He’s run in Group 3 and Listed races this season and while not troubling the judge has shown enough to convince me that he can take this race off a mark of 102

3.30 Chester. This is a cracking handicap with all the usual suspects lining up. Racer Forever has been running well in the big 7f handicaps all season and from stall 6 can gain his reward today.

5.25 Sandown. A speculative punt on a bit of a monkey. Seventh Cavalry has managed to make the top 4 in 14 of his 16 starts but has never got his head in front. There’s obviously some ability there and I hope Neil Callan can be the jockey to bring out the best in him.

3.15 Sandown Lang Shining is one of my horses to follow and today looks the day he gets his head in front. He ran 2nd in this race last year off the same rating and has this is obviously his seasonal target. He’s managed to get a good draw and I think everything is in place for a big run.

I’ll be staking £4ew at 7/1 on him for my £100 to a Grand challenge.

Today is your last chance to register your entry for the Prize Fund competition. Click on the Bonus Ball Bet tab at the top of the screen to see how you can win all the cash!

Good luck,

Gavin.

After a disappointing first day at the Knavesmire I managed to get some cash back yesterday courtesy of Ebor winner Sesanta and Gimcrack winner Showcasing. Our trends guide had the Ebor down to three Ajaan, Sesanta and Manyriverstocross but after the late withdrawal of Ajaan it was a straight choice between the other two.

Obviously, I picked the wrong one for my main bet but I did have a saver on the Willie Mullins horse and disaster was averted.

Onto today…

In the sales race at 1.45 I’ll be having a small interest in Di Stefano in the hope that he can show the kind of form that saw him finish a very fast finishing 3rd in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot. On that run the 6f looks well within his compass and as one of the highest rated horses in the race he should be thereabouts. The 8/1 looks too big.

In the 2.50 I have one of my ‘horses to follow’ running in the shape of Webbow. I had a feeling that he would be running at the meeting as York suits him so well and in his current form must go well. It’s slightly annoying that Pricewise has tipped him but 12/1 is still available and I’ll be steaming in with a big each way wager.

In the 4.05 I can’t see why Princess Tayloris 12/1 and will be having a little each way on her too. She didn’t quite get home over the 1m6f last time at Goodwood but before that had shown excellent form to chase home Barshiba at Newmarket over today’s distance. She had a couple of these behind her that day and should at least make the frame here.

A 3yo 5f sprint brings the curtain down on today’s proceeding and the only thing certain about this race is that it will be run at breakneck speed. There are front running pace horses from all sides of the draw and it may pay to try and find something that can sit off the front and take advantage late on as the leaders tire. The one I’m going to side with is Paul Green’s Lucky Numbers who hasn’t been getting home over 6f recently. The step back in trip has got to help him and if the first time blinkers do the trick 16/1 is another nice each way bet.

In my £100 to a Grand challenge I will place a 10pew Lucky 15 on the 4 of them and have £3ew on Webbow at 12/1

1.45 Di Steffano

2.50 Webbow

4.05 Princess Taylor

4.40 Lucky Numbers

Don’t forget that any money I make during this challenge I will be giving away to one lucky reader. If you want to be in with a chance of scooping it all then time is running out to enter. Here’s how you can do it…..

I’ll be setting a series of challenges to whittle down all the readers who want to enter until we are left with just 1. The first challenge will be for the Lottery Main Draw on Saturday 22nd August and you simply have to decide if the bonus ball will be an odd or an even number.

If you think it will be ODD simply send an email with your name in the subject line to odd@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

If you think it will be EVEN then send an email with your name in the subject line to even@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

NOTE: The draw date is 22nd August.

All those who guess correctly will be through to the next challenge.

PLEASE:  Only 1 entry per person. (To stop those who try to guess both odd and even: if more than one entry is received you will be disqualified). All entries must be received by 7pm 22nd August 2009. The challenge runs to 24th December. Any prizemoney will be paid 1st January 2010. My decision is final.

Obviously, once the competition has started you won’t then be able to join in so get those emails in quick to make sure you’re entered. It’ll only take a few seconds. Good luck.

Currently Odd is twice as popular as Even!

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A few more horses that are on (or were on) my list of horses to follow.

These are ones I have mentioned in my posts before…..

LATERLY: A 4yo gelding from the Tom Tate yard. He’s handicapped to win but will need to have conditions in his favour. I’m waiting for him to run in a 1m 4f race on good or softer ground at one of the lesser Northern tracks (e.g. Ripon or Thirsk). I also want him to run from the front but we won’t know that until the stalls open!

DANCE CLUB:A 3yo filly who followed up her good 2nd at Yarmouth with a win at the same course. I’ve had my win from her and will now cross her off the list.

Another one who has been well and truly crossed off the list is INDIAN TRAILwho I have been following in big sprints of late. After a couple of unlucky looking runs I thought there was a race in him but he’s probably just not that well handicapped. Expect him to make a monkey of me now with a win in the Ayr Gold Cup.

And a recent addition to the list for a Godolphin 2yo who ran very green on his introduction. I doubt he’s near the top of their juvenile pecking order but AL DAFA was quite well fancied to win a Lingfield maiden the other night. He looked very inexperienced throughout and Frankie eased him up quite a bit when his chance had gone but 5 lengths behind Dubai Set wasn’t a bad first run and I expect him to take a maiden next time before going on to run well in nurseries.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Just a flying visit today dear readers as I have a 11.30am tee time booked for 18 holes of bad swinging, bad putting , bad scoring and bad language!

It’s my brother’s birthday today (Happy Birthday Gary!) and what better way to celebrate than a round of golf. There’s bound to be a little (or not so little) wager on the game as we can’t do anything without money being involved. Monopoly, Scrabble, Cards, Scalextrix, Tiddlywinks…..it’s all much more fun with a side bet.

Any enough of that, let’s putt that aside and take a look at York today. There are three tough handicaps sandwedging the class races today and it’s these I’ll be taking a look at. The first handicap is the 5f sprint at 1.45…

I’ve been following Indian Trail over it’s last few runs and he’s had a bit of a rough time of it of late with regard to the draw. He also ran twice at Goodwood in two days and though he ran well the first time to finish 4th he was a fairway behind on his second run. I think we can forgive him that run as it may have been a bit soon for him and at around 16/1 he is the one for me.

The 4.05 is a Nursery handicap and is about as tough a race as you could find, well at least since the last York Nursery anyway. I used to love these races and have the form study down to a tee but I’ve struggled of late. I’m trying to get back into the swing of things and iron out my form problems and today’s choice will be Jack My Boy. He ran very green on his debut but has improved nicely with each run since and has won 3 of his last 5 races. Both of those last defeats came when he was raised into pattern company but his below par run last time can be put down to him not staying the 7f. This return to 6f should help and a slice of the 20/1 each way will do me.

As we reach the 3rd and final race I’m beginning to flag so I’ll be quick. The 4.40 sees the re-appearance of Laterly who ran so well for me at 50/1 last time out. He’s on my list of horses to follow and I’m sure he’ll be winning soon but this trip looks a little on the short side for me and I’ll be hoping he doesn’t win today and make me look a fool. The one I’m going for is Henry Cecil’s Jack Dawkins who has struggled of late but really needs firm ground to be seen at his best. The course, distance and going are set up nicely for him and it will be a major surprise to me if he doesn’t at least make the frame.

And finally, one small plug for my Festival Trends Guide.

The York Guide covers 10 races and is available from this link(s) here……YORK EBOR MEETING

Good luck,

Gavin.

Arrrgh. It seems after yesterday’s results that I have caught a dose of something that is every punters nightmare…..PLACE-ITUS.

From my bets yesterday I had,

Val C 3rd, Regal Parade 2nd, Advanced 3rd, Diggerratt 3rd, Eyes Like a Hawk 4th and I even backed Henry Cecils 2yo Catherine Quest who finished 2nd to a 50/1 shot.

It wasn’t all bad as I had a nice each way Lucky 15 with 4 places but winners are what we all want and no matter how many big  priced placed horses I get I’d much prefer a nice juicy priced winner.

Of them all I thought Advanced ran very well in our bid to make it 4 big Saturday Trends winners on the bounce and my £200 ew bet at 16/1 had me dreaming of Las Vegas again when he struck the front a furlong out. Sin City may now be out but at least I’ve got a nice punting arsenal to take into battle at York next week.

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But before I switch my attention to the Knavesmire there’s the little matter of Bath today and the latest addition to my list of horses to follow.

We put him up as the Tip of the day on Wednesday night at Sandown and if any of you backed him then, I think you were mighty unlucky.

KYLLACHY STORM: 5yo Gelding from the Ron Hodges Yard. His last run looked very unlucky as he was caught in a pocket on the rail with the jockey seemingly having plenty of horse under him. He switched around a couple of horses but couldn’t get the gap he needed and finished on the heels of the protagonists with Darryl Holland sitting motionless. This horse loves Bath, has won over 5/6f and although he has form on Firm ground I think he is ideally suited by softer conditions. In his grade (class 5/6) he is a good sprinter.

He runs in the 5pm today and with previous winning rider William Carson back on board I fancy him very strongly to get my money back. If we could get a little bit of rain over Bath I’d be even happier.

Good luck,

Gavin.

I’ve been banging on recently about how the Godolphin horses were coming into form and that the stable was definitely worth following now after a very slow start to their season. Wow, was I right (for a change I hear you cry!).

After saddling an amazing 6 winners yesterday over three different meetings Bin Suroor’s tally for the month of August is now 16 winners from 39 runners for a very impressive 41% strike rate. They run 5 horses today in a bid to keep their good run going….

1.30 Newbury LOVE AND DEVOTION (The daily tip)

2.35 Newbury KITE WOOD / AGE OF REASON

3.10 Newbury EVASIVE

6.30 Lingfield AL DAFA

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Today’s fancies…

A horse I really like the look of today is Dragon Slayerin the 5.10 Newmarket. He’s run very well on his last two outings and the way he won at Yarmouth 2 starts ago was very impressive. Darryl Holland takes over from the apprentice who had been riding him recently and at 9/1 there’s a lot to like about this John Harris horse.

In the 4.00 at HQ I’ll be having a little each way bet on Val Cin what looks a tight Nursery. Her form has been a little hit and miss but last time out I think we can forgive her run because she didn’t seem to handle the Lingfield AW track too well. On her run before that though, behind Radio City, I could give her a chance and with a 9lb pull she should be able to reverse form with that one. The 22/1 that is available is just too big.

Tonight at Lingfield I’ll be playing up my winnings from last time on Diggerattas he goes for his hat-trick in the 6.00. With Frankie Dettori booked he obviously means business again and 7/4 looks tempting.

Later in the card there’s a horse running who looks very well treated off a rating of just 59. Eyes Like A Hawk runs in the 7.30 and there’s a lot to like about this ones chances. Obviously held in some regard by the stable he was sent off as a 5/4 favourite on his juvenile debut. He didn’t run up to expectation though and finished 7th of 9. His two runs this year have been okay and he now has his handicap mark which looks very attractive. With the trip looking likely to suit and being able to race on a firmer surface than last time he’s just the type of horse who could run up a sequence for an in-form yard.

I’ll be having £2 from the Challenge money on Eyes Like A Hawk at 6/1

If you want the trends selections for today’s big 3 races our £1 offer is still available…

Get your copy here >>>> 5 trends races for just £1

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2 more from my list of horses to follow…..

LANG SHINING: A Michael Stoute 5yo who has repeatedly failed to deliver after winning the Spring Cup last year. He has though been slipping down the weights ever since and is nearing the kind of mark that he can win off. He may need a bit of cut in the ground and a straight mile to be seen at his best and I’ll be looking out for one of the end of season Newmarket handicaps for this one.

JASER:4yo from Peter Chapple-Hyam’s yard. He’s been extremely disappointing this season but as a result his handicap mark has plummeted to a very nice looking 83. A drop in class, a mile with a bend in it and soft ground should make him an attractive proposition.

Don’t forget to come back tomorrow when I will reveal the latest addition to my list who is declared to run at Bath and is a very nice price according to the Racing Post.

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And finally, you are all aware just how much I like using the trends to find a winner. Well today I have found possibly the strongest trend of any race run in the UK all year. It’s in the 2.50 Newmarket….

- For every running of this race the winner has been a GREY horse.

So make sure you watch Channel 4 at 2.50 to spot the grey horse and back it accordingly. In fact, I’m so confident that this trend will be upheld - If a grey horse doesn’t win the 2.50 Newmarket I’ll give every reader free access to Festival Trends for the entire year of 2010.

Good luck,

Gavin.

£100 - £1000 Xmas Challenge

I now have £150 in the fighting fund and it’s time to lay down some bankroll management rules to try and ensure that I don’t go bust within the first month. Given my compulsive nature when it comes to gambling if I didn’t enforce some restrictions I’d be straight down the casino lumping it all on 32 red at the roulette table.

So here are the main Bankroll Rules I will be following….

- As I’m going to be trying out various forms of gambling over the course of this challenge I think it is important that I never expose more than 10% of the bank at any one time. i.e. for each particular gambling challenge (poker, lottery, horse-racing, golf etc..) only 10% of the bank can be used as a total to place any bets.

- With all single bets at 1% of the bank (but a minimum of £2). Except for horses running from my list of horses to follow (revealed later in this post) which will allow a 5% bank stake

- This last rule can be broken if an increased stake can be used to claim a Free Bet Offer.

- All bets will be notified on this blog in the ‘100 to a Grand’ link (left hand side of the screen) before being struck

and that’s basically it. Back to business…

I now have a second trick up my sleeve as I have deliberately held off opening a Racing Post Poker account so I could avail myself of another stack of free cash for this challenge.

Unlike most other poker sites the Racing Post give you 25% of your initial deposit immediately you sign up and another 75% of this deposit when you have played a certain amount of games. We can forget the 75% as I probably won’t be playing enough on their site to qualify for it but by depositing £100 into their site I have got £25 to try my luck at the tables.

Of course there is a slight catch with this in that you can’t withdraw any Bonus winnings until you have wagered 50x the bonus amount but the £100 we use to make the deposit can be withdrawn and it gives me £25 to play some poker. If I restrict myself to playing small stakes games I may even be able to make it last long enough to reach the level where we can withdraw it. Either way it’s a no lose option and we may even make something out of it.

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Don’t forget that any money I make during this challenge I will be giving away to one lucky reader. If you want to be in with a chance of scooping it all then here’s how you can do it…..

I’ll be setting a series of challenges to whittle down all the readers who want to enter until we are left with just 1. The first challenge will be for the Lottery Main Draw on Saturday 22nd August and you simply have to decide if the bonus ball will be an odd or an even number.

If you think it will be ODD simply send an email with your name in the subject line to odd@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

If you think it will be EVEN then send an email with your name in the subject line to even@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

NOTE: The draw date is 22nd August.

All those who guess correctly will be through to the next challenge.

PLEASE:  Only 1 entry per person. (To stop those who try to guess both odd and even: if more than one entry is received you will be disqualified). All entries must be received by 7pm 22nd August 2009. The challenge runs to 24th December. Any prizemoney will be paid 1st January 2010. My decision is final.

Obviously, once the competition has started you won’t then be able to join in so get those emails in quick to make sure you’re entered. It’ll only take a few seconds. Good luck.

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LIST OF HORSES

A major part of my serious betting is done by backing horses from a list I compile throughout the season noting down horses to follow. A couple of examples this year were Dubai Dynamo, Postman, Som Tala and of course Laterly last Saturday. They make this list for any number of reasons and while not all of them win straightaway most do eventually manage to find the winners enclosure. There are currently 14 horses on my list and I will be revealing them over the next couple of posts along with the reasons why I think they should be followed.

I’ll put them all on the Horses to Follow page which you can access by clicking the link on the left hand side of this post.

There was a new horse added to my list from Sandown the other evening and he is set to run Sunday at his favourite track. He was desperately unlucky in running that night and he’ll be a very strong fancy at the weekend. I’ll let you know his name on Sunday morning but until then here are the first 4 from my list…

FLAPJACK. 2yo maiden from the Richard Hannon yard. He doesn’t stay 7f and he’s nowhere near the best horse in the stable but if he were to run in a low class nursery over 5 or 6f I think he could pick up a race.

WEBBOW. 7yo handicapper from the Nigel Tinkler yard. He never seems to run a bad race and though he looks exposed there must be a big handicap in him before the end of the season. He goes on any ground but is best suited by a mile with a bend in it. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s entered for a race at York next week.

GLOWING PRAISE. 3yo gelding from the Ed McMahon stable. He won very easily in a handicap at Leicester but has been a beaten favourite in his last two starts since that win. You can excuse him both as he didn’t go on the soft in the first of those runs and last time out the jockey forgot to take the blindfold off him as the stalls opened. Doh! He could pick up a nice mile handicap if the going is not too soft.

MORES WELLS. Trained in France now but there isn’t a better handicapped horse in training than this one. I fancied him strongly at Royal Ascot but he got hampered and hung badly before finishing a creditable 5th behind Perfect Stride. This horse has some incredible form in the book and should he come back over to these shores to contest a handicap I’ll be plunging in to get my money back. The softer the ground the better.

I’ll be back on Sunday with a few more including hopefully a nice bet for later that day.

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The festival trends offer is still available and includes 5 races for just £1.

3 are being run tomorrow and there’s also two ante-post races for York next week. Don’t forget we’ve highlighted the last 3 big race Saturday winners in our guides Sirvino 16/1, Conduit 13/8 and Genki 14/1.

Can we do it again in the Great St Wilfrid? I’d like to think we can..

Get your copy here >>>> 5 trends races for just £1

Good luck,

Gavin.

The Challenge. Day 2

8/1 shot Safari won the race yesterday giving me a return of £90 for a £100 outlay. We are now -£10 but have £100 worth of FREE bets to get us into profit.

The race we will target today is the 3.45 Beverley. It’s not really ideal as the betting is pretty tight but luck may be on our side and we could get the right result. I will place the following bets….

Betfred: £30 Miss Keck 11/4

Paddy Power: £20 Jackday 7/2

William Hill: £15 Pseudonym 11/2

Victor Chandler: £15 Spiders Star 5/1

Coral: £10  Fin Vin de Leu 6/1

Bet365: £10 Princess Rainbow 6/1

Which should guarantee us a profit of at least £60 for today.

Now we’re off and running it’s time to find out who will be the lucky person who wins the cash. I’ve thought long and hard and have come up with an idea that should be fun and can be run over a number of weeks.

I’ll be setting a series of challenges to whittle down all the readers who want to enter until we are left with just 1. The first challenge will be for the Lottery Main Draw on Saturday 22nd August and you simply have to decide if the bonus ball will be an odd or an even number.

If you think it will be ODD simply send an email with your name in the subject line to odd@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

If you think it will be EVEN then send an email with your name in the subject line to even@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

NOTE: The draw date is 22nd August.

All those who guess correctly will be through to the next challenge.

PLEASE:  Only 1 entry per person. (To stop those who try to guess both odd and even: if more than one entry is received you will be disqualified). All entries must be received by 7pm 22nd August 2009. Any prizemoney will be paid 1st January 2010. My decision is final.

Obviously, once the competition has started you won’t then be able to join in so get those emails in quick to make sure you’re entered. It’ll only take a few seconds. Good luck.

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

Today I’d like to make all readers a very special offer. I’m going to give 5 races away from our Festival Trends Guides for just £1. Just 20p a race!!

The 5 races are: Saturday’s Hungerford and Geoffrey Freer  Stakes from Newbury, The Great St Wilfred Handicap from Ripon and two ante-post versions for next weeks Ebor and Nunthorpe stakes from York.

All 5 races have the complete set of data that our guides usually include. The stats are ready for download now but the selections for the weekends races will not be available until 7.30pm tomorrow night (after the final declarations have been made).

Get your copy here >>>> 5 trends races for just £1

———

Finally, a couple of horses I’ll be backing this evening.

The Godolphin juveniles are flying at the moment and Al Ghazal who runs in the 6.35 at Sandown looks another likely winner for the boys in blue. The way he was staying on over 6f last time would seem to suggest that this step up in trip is what is required. If only we could get the 11/4 forecast price in the Racing Post!

In the 7.10 the likely favourite Peking Prince looks worth taking on. He’s 15lb higher in the ratings than when winning two starts ago, the drop back to 7f isn’t certain to suit him and he really should have won last time out off such a light weight after coming to challenge on the bit. But which one do we take him on with? There was a horse declared to run in the race that is in my notebook but as Glowing Praise has been taken out I’ll have to look elsewhere for the winner.  Militarist won the Wood Ditton back in April and both this drop back in trip and a drop in the ratings should help him out. Even with topweight he looks nicely treated and at around 10/1 could be value but I’m going to go with Roger Charlton’s entry Broad Cairn who caught the eye last time out when coming from last to first  over course and distance. A 4lb rise may not stop him going in again and 9/2 looks too big a price to miss.

I think I might have a forecast on the two as well: Broad Cairn / Militarist.

Good luck,

Gavin.

Today marks the day when I will begin my challenge to turn £100 into a grand (before Christmas) using as many forms of gambling as possible!

Now I’m probably going to fall flat on my face, and you’ll all have a good laugh at my exploits, but hopefully it will be fun and informative as you follow my attempts. Fun because I probably will make a fool of myself and informative because I’ll be showing you techinques on how to get some guaranteed free money, I’ll have a go at arbing, I’ll explain bank roll management and I will try to utilise the number one weapon in a punters armoury…discipline! (something that has never been a strong point of mine). And of course, we’ll also get to see which particular forms of gambling are the most, or least, punter friendly.

As I said before, I’m going to give all the money away to one lucky reader and I’ll reveal tomorrow how you can enter a series of qualifiers until we find the chosen one. It will be completely FREE and open to anyone who reads this blog.

OK, I’ve formulated a sort of battleplan,  have a few tricks up my sleeves to help me along the way and will take any freebie I can get my hands on. Which leads me nicely onto phase 1 of ‘The Challenge’ which I’m hoping will increase my initial £100 starting bankroll without any risk…

When I wrote last week about the latest mailshots doing the round I mentioned that we can apply the same principles these scammers use to avail ourselves of some free money. BUT, unlike those nasty fraudsters, what I am about to explain is completely legal, nobody gets ripped off, anyone can do it and it should guarantee that you make money.

I’m simply going to start off the challenge using the full £100 starting bankroll to back every runner in the 3.15 Newton Abbot. I’ve chosen this race specifically because of the small number of runners and the low over-round (105%) of the early morning prices.

Now before you start emailing to ask if I’ve lost my marbles, obviously there is more to it than that and this is where we get smart. I’ve signed up for 6 accounts with some online bookmakers, all of whom are giving a free match-up bet when you place your first bet and all of whom are offering the best price at the moment….

I’ll start by staking £30 on Star Of Germany at 2/1 with Betfred.

He’s offering a £50 matchup at the moment which you can also get by clicking this link >>> BETFRED

I’ll have £20 at 10/3 on Enlightenment with Paddy Power. Sign up for an account here>>>PADDY POWER

Now it’s £15 at 5/1 on Histoire de Mouers with William Hill. Their site is here>>>>WILLIAM HILL

Then another £15 this time on Mibleu at 13/2 with Victor Chandler

Victor’s got a £50 matchup offer on at the moment too. You can also get it by clicking here>>> VICTORCHANDLER

£10 on Safari with Coral.  (They also give you back 10% of all your losses each month)>>>>CORAL

and finally £10 on Laoch Dubh at 12/1 with Bet365. >>>>BET365

It should take about 15-20 mins to sign up for all those accounts but as we should make at least £50 for our troubles it  isn’t too bad a return on our time.

We have laid out the £100 and depending on the result we can expect a return of between £86.67 - £130. Don’t worry if we don’t get the perfect result today and lose a couple of pounds as we will get it all back and more tomorrow when we do the whole thing again but this time using our FREE BETS.

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

York’s main meeting of the year starts next week as they stage 4 days of top class racing including the Nunthorpe, International Stakes, Yorkshire Oaks and Europes richest handicap, THE EBOR.

We’ll be covering the 10 main races for the meeting in our York Festival Trends Guide and it’s available for just £9.99.

Already available for download is our ante-post look at The Ebor and The Nunthorpe with the full guide ready from Monday 17th.

PLUS for just an extra £1 you can also include our 3 race guide for this weekends racing (featuring 2 from Newbury and Ripon’s Great St Wilfrid) and another mini-guide from Goodwood at the end of the month.

And remember our last 3 Saturday Guides have selected 3 big race winners…SIRVINO (John Smiths Cup) at 16/1, a very confident selection in CONDUIT (King George) at 13/8 and at Glorious Goodwood our top rated horse GENKI won the Stewards Cup at 14/1. Great tipping I think you’ll agree.

To get your copy of the latest guides…PLEASE CLICK HERE….

Good luck,

Gavin.

I’m just about to set off for a weekend by the sea with the missus, my son and a couple of his cousins so I’ll get straight down to business…

The Shergar Cup, urrrgh. I say it every year and I’m going to say it again….Racing never has been and never will be a team sport (unless Aiden O’Brien is running 5 runners in an 8 runner race!) and this meeting, in my opinion, is just a waste of time. Driving the jockeys around London in an open-topped bus with cheerleaders doing all the ra-ra business in the background. Please! Give me strength. Whatever next? Racing horses to the William Tell Overture? Even Frankie’s had enough and managed to come up with an excuse not to be there this year. After the disastrous tipping of 12 months ago I’m giving the meeting a big swerve this year.

With plenty of good racing from other parts of the country it’s time to ignore the sideshow.

Rose of Lancaster Stakes (Haydock 2.40)

- 11 of the last 12 winners were 3 or 4yo’s

Stamp out Philatelist, Supasaeus, Traffic Guard and Tranquil Tiger

- 10 of the last 12 winners had won at 10-12f

Time to leave off Staying On and Jukebox Jury

Duncan and Campanologist started 1st and 2nd favourite for the Princess of Wales stakes last time out but finished last and last but one respectively. Obviously neither of them gave their true running but they need to show a lot more than that to take this prize and I think it may be worth taking them both on.

The one I’m going to side with is Allied Powers who having won some decent handicaps in the early part of his career ran very well in a Group 2 at York behind Kirklees at the end of last month. A reproduction of that kind of form should put him in with a big shout for this contest and 9/1 looks a nice price with so many doubts about the rest of the field.

Sweet Solera Stakes (3.00 Newmarket)

- 10 of the last 11 winners made the top 2 last time out

Chachamaidee, Gallic Star & Jira can all go

- 12 of the last 13 winners had a maximum of 3 runs

means it’s time to lose Bikini Babe

- The last 11 winners all returned 7/1 or shorter

so we can rule out the outsiders Admire the View, Blue Angel, Blue Maiden and Snow Fairy

We’re left with two but with Barry Hills having an incredible record of 4 winners and 2 places since 2001 the selection has to be Sent from Heaven.

Totescoop6 Heritage Handicap (3.15 Haydock)

It worked last time when I asked Mick Channon to get his jockey to ride Som Tala from the front and so I’m going to try it again……

‘ Dear Mr Tate,

Please can you ask Micky Fenton to revert to leading with Laterly. I have no idea what happened last time but he was never given a chance to win after being held up out the back. The horse needs to lead, all his best form and all his wins have been when ridden from the front. Bounce him out, run from the front and kick on round the turn. Job done!

Best regards,

Gavin Priestley.’

The horse has some pretty poor recent form figures but having been dropped 4lb since his last run he is now primed to strike and today looks as good a time as any. He’s actually set to carry less weight than he did in the John Smith’s Cup and the 50/1 is very, very appealing. Maybe I’ve been out in the sun too long today but I really fancy him today.

Have a £1ew at 50/1 on Laterly and hope he gets out of the stalls sharpish.

Skybet Heritage Handicap (3.35 Newmarket)

The topweight Al Khaleej went into my notebook last time out when running on very strongly over 6f behind Knot in Wood. With all his best form being over further I’m glad to see him back up in trip for this valuable handicap and with that first run of the season under his belt he is sure to be primed to run a big race. He ran a massive race to finish 2nd in last seasons Victoria Cup over today’s trip and he is my bet of the day.

What a tasty looking Lucky 15 that is…

Allied Powers 2.40 Hay

Sent From Heaven 3.00 New

Laterly 3.15 Hay

Al Khaleej 3.35 New

As always feel free to back them, lay them or ignore them!

Good luck,

Gavin.

 WARNING! SCAM ALERT!

There’s a new scam doing the rounds at the moment and some of you may have received this one or a similar mailshot in the post recently.

Most of you will know enough already to put it straight in the wastepaper basket but for those readers who are unaware of these types of scams let me tell you why the best place for these mailshots is the recycling bin at your local Tesco’s. They usually originate from the same source but the scam is nearly always the same and has been around for a very long time.

In the lastest one doing the rounds please don’t be fooled by the name of the company ‘Racing Post Extra Limited’, or some sort of variation of that name, because it has absolutely nothing to do with the Racing Post whatsoever.

Also, don’t be fooled by the promise of free tips by text message. You will get the tips (they may even be sent unsolicited to you), they will be free but this is where the scam begins…..

Say the operators of the scam have bought a list of 20000 people who they know have subscribed to racing tipsters in the past and another 2000 mobile phone numbers of a similar type of racing fan. They send out the mailshot to the 20000 people offering free tips by text message to all those who are interested.

Who wouldn’t be? Free tips from the only dedicated national racing newspaper, where do I sign?

Of those 20000 people say they get a response from 2000  punters who haven’t read this blog or heeded the warning. This gives the operators of the scam 4000 mobile phone numbers.

Now it’s time to reel you in. They split these 4000 customers into 8 groups of 500, find a 8 horse race somewhere from the days meetings and send each group of 500 one horse each from the field.

No matter which horse wins there will be 500 punters up and down the country who can’t believe their luck having had a free winning tip. It’s not impossible for an outsider to win the race in question giving the operators extra kudos.

Now it’s time to split these 500 punters up again and repeat the process with another 8 horse race. This guarantees around 60 people have now had 2 winning tips from 2 selections.

Of course they also text a tip to the other 3500 people who didn’t receive a winning selection first time out in the hope that they get one this time. Again, it’s not impossible for another outsider to win the race.

It’s time for the sucker punch.

They now send everyone a text informing them that they can join this incredible service for just £1500 for 12 months.

The 60 people who have had two winning tips think Christmas has come early (imagine if you had received a 20/1 winner and a 16/1 winner from your 2 texts) and can’t wait to sign up. Many people will have been texted one winner and, if it was a good price, think yeah let’s give it a go meaning even more sign-ups for our unscrupulous gang.

With some simple maths we can see that  they only need 30 people from those 20000 to sign up to make themselves a whopping  £45000.

So remember, if you get a mailshot offering free tips or a text message with a free tip that you didn’t ask for …..I URGE YOU TO BIN IT or DELETE IT!

They say every cloud has a silver lining and so it is the case with this particular scam. On Monday’s post I will begin my quest to turn £100 into a grand before Christmas and I will show you, by using the very principles involved with this particular scam, how to get your hands on some free money. All perfectly legal and without having to rip anyone off.

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Daily Tip

Today’s tip is a horse that I was really sweet on at the start of the season as I’d heard such great things about him. He’s only won a Pontefract maiden so far but has run creditably in the Dante and at Royal Ascot and tonight takes a massive drop in class. Native Ruler runs in the 7.50 Newmarket and I’d be very surprised if he wasn’t good enough to win this before going on to live up to his trainers high early season expectations.

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Friday Fun.

This unusual world record attempt by the workers of a bed company, as they play mattress dominoes, is the latest youtube phenomenon….

Good luck,

Gavin.

In what has been a poor weeks racing so far, and one that probably won’t get much better due to the main meeting on Saturday being the Shergar Cup, I thought it might be a good time to take an ante-post look at a few races coming up in the next couple of weeks….

The Tote Ebor

This is the richest handicap run in Europe so you can expect a large field of top class handicappers to turn up but recent runnings have seen quite a few shock results including 100/1 winner Mudawin in 2006.

There are currently 69 horses declared but with a maximum field of 22 allowed to go to post we can probably forget the bottom 30 or so runners as they probably won’t get in the race.

There are three things to note about the Ebor…

1) 2005 winner Sergeant Cecil was the first horse older than 5 to win since Sea Pigeon in 1979.

2) Horses rated over 102 have struggled to win this race as have those horses carrying more than 9-04

3) The last 7 and 8 of the last 9 winners had their last run at either Ascot or Glorious Goodwood.

The horse that I really like at the moment is the Michael Bell trained The Betchworth Kid. He was my big tip for the Northumberland Plate where he was backed from 20/1 into 17/2 and ran okay to finish 9th but put up by far his best career performance last time out when running 3rd in the Goodwood Cup. The strong pace that you usually get in the Ebor will suit his style of running and as he’s won on good/firm and soft ground we won’t have to worry to much about the ever changing weather conditions.

At 25/1 with Paddy Power he looks interesting at the moment.

The Nunthorpe Stakes

Along with the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot the Nunthorpe shares the title as Britains premier 5f sprint race.

Unlike its Ascot counterpart though the race conditions allow 2yo’s to compete against their elders in receipt of a hefty weight allowance. Three juveniles were beaten in the race last year but Kingsgate Native won in 2007 as a 2yo as did Lyric Fantasy in 1992. Those aged 7 and over are the ones to avoid with just 9yo Bahamian Pirate managing to win for that age group from the 27 that tried in the last decade.

Other things of note for the Nunthorpe are that 12 of the last 13 winners arrived via Royal Ascot, Glorious Goodwood or Newmarket’s July meeting, all British winners in the last decade were rated 109+ and the last three 3yo winners all won the July Cup.

Radiohead is the only 2yo entered this year and in receipt of 19lb and upwards from the rest of the field this easy Group 2 Royal Ascot winner looks a bit of value at around 8/1

The St. Leger

The oldest and last of the 5 classics run in Britain has become of less importance over the years with very few of the top 3yo colts taking their chance in the race but with last years winner Conduit going on to win a Breeders Cup and a King George it may spark a revival in the St Leger’s fortunes.

St Leger winners usually come into the race in good form with the last 13 winners having finished in the top 4 on their previous run. (9 won including the last 5, 2 were 2nd, one was 3rd and one was 4th)

Amazingly, 11 of the last 12 winners ran in the top 4 of either The Great Voltigeur at York or the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

Aiden O’Brien, Saeed Bin Suroor, John Dunlop and John Gosden have between them won 10 of the last 13 St Leger’s.

Another thing to remember is that all of the last 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter making it a race for fancied runners.

With the Great Voltigeur not having been run yet it makes it difficult to use all of these trends but there is one horse in the field that interests me a great deal and he is more than likely to appear in that York race. Father Timewon well at Royal Ascot and the way he was running on that day suggests he is a real Leger horse in the making. He is in fact the highest rated British trained horse in the field at the moment and after he wins the Voltigeur the 6/1 he is now will look outstanding value.

Which makes a nice looking ante-post patent…

Ebor: The Betchworth Kid 25/1

Nunthorpe: Radiohead 8/1

St Leger: Father Time 6/1

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I’ll be starting my attempt to turn £100 in a grand from next Monday when I’ll also be outlining my early strategy along with details on how you can win all of the money I make.

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And finally, there is one horse that I fancy today running in possibly the worst handicap run all season. The 2.50 Yarmouth is a lowly 6f, class 6 maiden handicap for horses rated 0-65  but something has to win it and the one that catches my eye is Dance Club.

Her form figures are less than inspiring and in her 5 runs to date she has yet to finish better than 6th but there are grounds for optimism that today could be the day for her.

Dance Club went into my notebook on her last run when after being slowly away she came to challenge quite strongly 2 furlongs from home before fading out of it. That race was run over a mile and today’s drop in trip is just what she needs. Hayley Turner takes the ride today and with a drop of 4lb in the ratings, as long as she can break smartly, this 3yo filly looks set to run a big race. 14/1 looks a big price. 

Good luck,

Gavin.