The 5 things I have learnt this week..
1) Laptops are delicate things…
and should be treated with care. After a particularly unlucky exit in 3rd place of a poker tournament early Saturday morning I slammed the lid down on my laptop in a fit of rage.
Bad mistake! I duly cracked the screen and the $1200 winnings I got for finishing third just about covered the cost of a new computer from PC World yesterday. This was the reason I didn’t post Saturday.
2) 2009 could be the year of the filly…
Rachel Alexander has already re-written the history books across the pond after winning the Preakness Stakes and now our very own super-filly Sariska has laid down her challenge to be regarded as the best filly in the world. After a decisive win in yesterday’s Irish Oaks she could join the French filly Stacelita in becoming the main challengers to Sea The Stars unbeaten record in the Arc. But they’re not the only females stealing the headlines this season as last years Oaks winner Look Here looks ready to win again in Group 1 company after two very promising runs this season and with 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner Ghanaati likely to prove tough to beat in this months Sussex Stakes this really could be the year of the filly.
3) England won’t win the Ashes back….
unless they change their mentality and realise that test cricket is played over 5 days. They won the toss and decided, quite rightly, to bat first on a wicket that looked primed to allow a big score. But the middle order seem totally unable to accept the fact that to win Test cricket you have to build runs gradually over at least two days. It’s all very well knocking off 60 from 40 balls if you can keep it going to score 100 or 200 but showing off and throwing your wicket away (Mr Pieterson) does not help the team. In the interview after the first days play the players all seemed pleased with themselves having reached 380 odd when really they should have been aiming for a total of 600 (as the Aussies proved) on that pitch. We’ll take the draw but they’ll have to raise their game at Lords on Thursday.
4) It’s time to start backing the Suroor horses….
I touched on this briefly last week but it looks like after a very poor start to the season it’s time to start backing the Boys in Blue. Saeed Bin Suroor has sent out 11 winners from his last 29 runners and seen another 7 of them placed. If you’ve done your money on any Goldophin horse over the last few months (I know I have!) it’s now time to get your money back.
Kite Wood was a good start for me last week and I’ll now be looking to get a return from Yahrab, Veracity, Giganticus and Eastern Anthem.
5) Paco Boy seems to attract controversy every time he runs….
I doubt there’s been a horse that has had more written about them this year than Paco Boy. Will he stay a mile, won’t he, can he handle Group 1 company, letters to the Racing Post from the Jockey, trainer, owner, even I’ve added my twopence worth.
And then just when you thought all the questions had been answered and everything had been said that needed to be said along comes Jimmy Fortune to ride a poor race on him in the July Cup. It wasn’t the worst ride ever given to a horse and in my opinion Paco Boy didn’t look like he handled the track too well but Fortune upset a lot of people with his strong finish that didn’t quite make the frame. The drop back to 6f was never going to be easy and he was outpaced early on but even with different riding tactics I doubt he’d have finished better than 3rd.
It will be interesting to see what the horse has install for us next time…..
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Saturday’s Super Sprint at Newbury
I’ve got a real fancy for this race at the weekend and will let you all have the name of it early so you can get the price as soon as the markets open up.
Richard Hannon has dominated this sales race since it’s inception with 6 winners and a host of placed runners but it’s worth noting he has been responsible for the last 5 beaten favourites and he accounts for far and away the most numbers of runners of any trainer. We can expect his usual bumper entry this year and with Monsieur Chevallier likely to be a leading fancy he’ll fancy his chances again but I’m going to look elsewhere for the winner…
The interesting stat for this race is the fact that fillies have won 7 of the last 10 runnings and have provided 12 winners since the races inception in 1991. This can be explained by the way the race conditions are framed and the allowances given depending on the price paid for the horse at the sales. The race is restricted to those horses purchased for £48,000 or less and 1lb is taken off the initial weight for every £3000 under than that price. With fillies generally passing through the sales ring for a lower price than their male counterparts they’re off to a good start before you take into consideration the 5lb sex allowance they also receive.
Other things to note about the 5f Super Sprint is that those horses who race prominently have a fantastic record as do those who contested the 2yo races at Royal Ascot.
Which brings us to my idea of the likely winner. She’s trained by Tom Dascombe and ran a blinder from a terrible draw at Ascot in the Albany Stakes behind Habaayib. She led for most of the way before finding the draw disadvantage take affect in the final 75 yards and finished a respectable 6th. The 7th horse that day, Jira, raced alongside the selection on the far side and has since come out and won a Listed race at Newmarket.
She entered my notebook as one to look out for next time and this race was the obvious target for her. Obviously Mr Dascombe shares my opinion as he has entered her for the race and off just 8-00 I’m very hopeful of a big run.
And her name…..ABOVE LIMITS.
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FESTIVAL TRENDS
Thanks for all the emails after Saturday’s Festival Trends big race 16/1 winner, Sirvino, and the forecast as well with top rated horse Kingdom of Fife finishing second. We were due a change of luck after a lot of big priced placed horses recently and this was just the tonic.
We move on to Ascot next before the big meeting at the end of the month, Glorious Goodwood.
If you want to get a copy of the Trends Guide for both meetings it’s just £14.95 and will include the 17 major races from both meetings. You can get it here…
Good luck,
Gavin.