Archive for July, 2009

Last post….

Tuesday, July 21st, 2009

….before I jet off.

First up a reminder to sign-up in the box to the right if you wish to continue receiving the email updates.  >>>>>>>

I’ll continue using the old list to notify everyone of my new posts until the end of the month and then I will make the switchover. If you haven’t entered your details by then I’m afraid you won’t be emailed until you fill in the box. It’s the two boxes to the right that has Get Nag Updates underneath it.

Once you have entered your details Getresponse will send you an email asking for confirmation that you do want to receive my emails and a simple click is all that is required to activate the link. Look out for this email as sometimes it gets placed in the Spam Folder.

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5 things to make the forthcoming week unforgettable…..

1) My fancy wins the King George on Saturday. It came out as a very strong trends horse and was well clear on my ratings so I’ve left a lumpy bet on it with Ladbrokes in the hope that even if I do all my dough in Vegas I’ll at least come home to a few quid.

2) On checking in for our flight Virgin see that we’re off to celebrate my birthday and we get offered an upgrade to First Class. It did happen to me once before when our party of 4 were travelling to Vegas on American Airlines. They’d overbooked our flight and we got offered an earlier flight that had a longer stop over in San Francisco but got into Vegas about the same time. They upgraded us to Business class if we took the earlier option, which of course we did, and I don’t think I’ve ever had such an enjoyable flight. Fingers crossed it happens again.

3) The receptionist at our hotel recognises me for the complete casino mug punter I am and upgrades our room to a suite. We’ve stayed in this particular hotel many times before and they have all the relevant data they need to know about just how unlucky I am and how much I’ve lost there over the years. A limo to and from the airport would be nice too. Oh, and some tickets for a show…….

4) I hope Ballys Sportsbook do their usual and pay little respect to the Euro challengers and offer  25/1 Mastercraftsman for the Breeders Cup Mile, 50/1 Rip Van Winkle for the Breeders Cup Classic and 66/1 Look Here for the Fillies and Mares. I’ll be sure to let you know how I get on with that.

5) The missus hits the jackpot on her beloved Wheel of Fortune slot machine,  number 32 comes up on the roulette 3 spins on the trot and I win the Bellagio Daily poker tournament. I think any 1 of those three should just about get me an extra week out there and if all 3 come up I’ll be moving stateside. Yeehaw!

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As I mentioned yesterday Gary will be in charge of the Daily Tip while I’m away. He was very unlucky yesterday when his fancy got done on the line by a 33/1 rag after Spencer had let him up the rail. He’ll be hoping for a change of fortune today and his selection is available by clicking on the Daily Tip tab on the top of the left hand side menu.

And Festival Trends have 2 publications available in the next fortnight with a 2 race Ascot Guide (ready for download now for just £1) and Glorious Goodwood next week.

You can get either (or both) guides by either logging in to your members account or by clicking below…

>>>>FESTIVAL TRENDS ASCOT & GOODWOOD<<<<<

The best of luck,

Gavin.

 

Our new home…

Monday, July 20th, 2009

Welcome everyone to the (not so) grand opening of the New Home for Nag3…..

The ribbon’s been cut, the champagne has been opened and the cake’s been eaten so it’s now time to get down to some work filling in the blank pages.

Don’t forget to sign up, if you haven’t already done so, to get the email updates from us here at nag3. The box is to the right of the screen>>>>

Please have a good look around the site and post/email any comments you may have.

Hopefully the font is now large enough for you all to read this as I have news of a special offer to announce.

ASCOT FESTIVAL TRENDS

We have a compiled a two race trends guide for this Saturday’s big Ascot meeting, which includes the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, and would like to offer it to all our readers for just £1.00.

The other race we have covered is the International Handicap which is run later on in the card.

Both races include all the usual trends stuff and our two selections.

It’s just a £1 with no subscriptions or any hidden fees & charges. Simply click below…

>>>>£1 Special 2 race Ascot Guide for Nag3 readers<<<<

 

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The Daily Tip had another winner yesterday thanks to Gary who will be looking after that particular feature while I am away. His selection for today is now available.

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An interesting stat for today concerns the 2.45 Yarmouth where Mick Channon has a 100% record in the race. He has sent out 3 winners from his 3 runners in the last 6 years and today relies on Universal Circus who is currently a 15/2 chance.

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LAS VEGAS

As you are all probably aware and sick of hearing about it I’m off on my holidays from Wednesday. I’ll do one last post tomorrow before I leave but I’m hoping to write a few lines while I’m away for anyone who wants to hear how I’m getting on at the tables.

Gary’s going to look after the Daily Tip for me during my absence so expect more winners than is usual!

On my return I’ll be starting a month long trial of a couple of systems that have just been released to see if they’re as good as their authors claim they are.

Until tomorrow….

Good luck,

Gavin.

Font Size…

Thursday, July 16th, 2009

I am aware that some of you are experiencing difficulties with the font size and are having trouble reading the text.

The problem is currently being addressed and will hopefully be resolved shortly. In the mean time if you wish to continue reading the blog posts they are still being published at the old blogger site at the address below…

http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html

Gavin.

Open glory…..

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009
With the racing so far this week being somewhat less than inspiring I thought I’d have a look at the golf and The Open to see if I could find something to have a bet on.

Before I start I’d like to announce that I’m no golf expert and my record of picking the winners of the Majors is poor to say the least but I’ve enlisted the help of a few family members who fancy themselves as golf experts and between us we’ve come up with the following 4 bets….

OUTRIGHT WINNER (3 off the tee)

Steve Stricker
Probably the most in-form guy on the tour at the moment after winning the John Deere tournament last weekend. He used to be a bit of a bottler when faced with a winning opportunity, which was ably demonstrated at Carnoustie 2 years ago when he blew his chance over the final 6 holes, but after a win in the Colonial earlier this year his confidence seems to be at it’s peak right now and if he gets himself into a winning position this year I think we’ll see a different Steve Stricker take on those final few holes. He’s finished a creditable 8th and 7th in the last 2 Open’s and at 50/1 he looks a great each way bet.

Ben Curtis
He won the Open in 2003 before enduring a rather torrid time afterwards. He seems to have got his game back together again now and has finished in the top 8 for both of the last two Opens. With a 4th place finish last time out on the US Tour he may be another who is running into form at just the right time. He’s not the biggest of hitters, which shouldn’t be too much of a problem at Turnberry where accuracy is more of a requisite, but he is one of the best bunker players around and that should help him should the wind get up and send his ball sand bound. 66/1 seems a fair price.

Richard Green
The Australian left hander is another who could be bracketed in the bottler division and if he’s towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday night it might be a good idea to lay him back on Betfair but at 200/1 he looks a big price for someone who is in good form and he finished a very respectable 4th at Carnoustie 2 years ago. He also led last weekends Scottish open after the first day before fading out of it to finish 35th but with 3 top 10 finishes before that tournament he obviously comes here in good heart and could reward us with a big priced place.

TOP AMERICAN WITHOUT TIGER WOODS

Brandt Snedeker
Silly name but a great golfer who looks good value at 40/1 to be the top US player without Tiger Woods. He’s another player in good form at the moment and is one of the best putters on the tour. He was 3rd in the Masters last year and if he can handle links golf should give us a run for our money.

Finally on the golf….

Boylesports have put up one of the greatest concessions ever made for punters as they offer each way terms of 1/4 odds the FIRST 8!

If you fancy a bet on the golf and are backing each way this has to be the best chance ever of getting paid. Plus if you haven’t already got an account with them they’ll also give you a free bet by matching your first bet up to £20.

To open an account click on the banner below…..



I’ve opened my account with them and placed 4 x £5ew bets on the above golfers with all winnings going to the monthly Bonus Ball Bet prizefund.

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NEW SITE

Thanks for your emails and comments about the new site. It seems that most of you like the site but were having difficulty with the size of the text. I have of course listened to these concerns and have increased the font size to hopefully make it a bit easier to read. Please let me know if there are any other issues you would like addressing.

And don’t forget if you want to keep getting email updates of any posts you’ll need to sign up again at the new site. Simply fill out the box to the right of the screen at http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/

That’s all for now folks.
Good luck,
Gavin.

Moving home…

Tuesday, July 14th, 2009
It’s nearly time to say goodbye to the old Nag3 site as the final tweaking takes place here at New Nag3.
I’ll continue posting on the old site until I get back from Vegas (28th July) but after that date this site will move permanently to it’s new home here at this website address.
The sign-up box is now active and if you want to carry on receiving the notification emails that let you know when there is a new post then you’ll have to sign up again. Sorry about that.
Just pop your name and email address in the box on the right hand side of the screen and click ‘nag updates’. It only takes a couple of seconds and you can be assured your email address will never be used by anyone other than myself or Matt.
To move around the new site simply click on any of the tabs to move to the next page. If it’s just the blog you’re interested in, the tab is situated at the top of the screen and is imaginatively titled ‘Blog’.
New feature
You may notice a tab entitled ‘Daily Tip’ to the left hand side of the screen. Starting from today I will be posting one horse a day as my daily fancy with a running total (+ or -) so you can track how it’s going. Today’s runner goes at Yarmouth tonight and is now available.
If you have any comments, problems or questions about the new site please email me at gavin@nag-nag-nag.co.uk
Good luck,
Gavin.

Temper Temper…

Monday, July 13th, 2009

The 5 things I have learnt this week..

1) Laptops are delicate things…

and should be treated with care. After a particularly unlucky exit in 3rd place of a poker tournament early Saturday morning I slammed the lid down on my laptop in a fit of rage.

Bad mistake! I duly cracked the screen and the $1200 winnings I got for finishing third just about covered the cost of a new computer from PC World yesterday. This was the reason I didn’t post Saturday.

2) 2009 could be the year of the filly…

Rachel Alexander has already re-written the history books across the pond after winning the Preakness Stakes and now our very own super-filly Sariska has laid down her challenge to be regarded as the best filly in the world. After a decisive win in yesterday’s Irish Oaks she could join the French filly Stacelita in becoming the main challengers to Sea The Stars unbeaten record in the Arc. But they’re not the only females stealing the headlines this season as last years Oaks winner Look Here looks ready to win again in Group 1 company after two very promising runs this season and with 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner Ghanaati likely to prove tough to beat in this months Sussex Stakes this really could be the year of the filly.

3) England won’t win the Ashes back….

unless they change their mentality and realise that test cricket is played over 5 days. They won the toss and decided, quite rightly, to bat first on a wicket that looked primed to allow a big score. But the middle order seem totally unable to accept the fact that to win Test cricket you have to build runs gradually over at least two days. It’s all very well knocking off 60 from 40 balls if you can keep it going to score 100 or 200 but showing off and throwing your wicket away (Mr Pieterson) does not help the team. In the interview after the first days play the players all seemed pleased with themselves having reached 380 odd when really they should have been aiming for a total of 600 (as the Aussies proved) on that pitch. We’ll take the draw but they’ll have to raise their game at Lords on Thursday.

4) It’s time to start backing the Suroor horses….

I touched on this briefly last week but it looks like after a very poor start to the season it’s time to start backing the Boys in Blue. Saeed Bin Suroor has sent out 11 winners from his last 29 runners and seen another 7 of them placed. If you’ve done your money on any Goldophin horse over the last few months (I know I have!) it’s now time to get your money back.

Kite Wood was a good start for me last week and I’ll now be looking to get a return from Yahrab, Veracity, Giganticus and Eastern Anthem.

 5) Paco Boy seems to attract controversy every time he runs….

I doubt there’s been a horse that has had more written about them this year than Paco Boy. Will he stay a mile, won’t he, can he handle Group 1 company, letters to the Racing Post from the Jockey, trainer, owner, even I’ve added my twopence worth.

And then just when you thought all the questions had been answered and everything had been said that needed to be said along comes Jimmy Fortune to ride a poor race on him in the July Cup. It wasn’t the worst ride ever given to a horse and in my opinion Paco Boy didn’t look like he handled the track too well but Fortune upset a lot of people with his strong finish that didn’t quite make the frame. The drop back to 6f was never going to be easy and he was outpaced early on but even with different riding tactics I doubt he’d have finished better than 3rd.

It will be interesting to see what the horse has install for us next time…..

 

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Saturday’s Super Sprint at Newbury

I’ve got a real fancy for this race at the weekend and will let you all have the name of it early so you can get the price as soon as the markets open up.

Richard Hannon has dominated this sales race since it’s inception with 6 winners and a host of placed runners but it’s worth noting he has been responsible for the last 5 beaten favourites and he accounts for far and away the most numbers of runners of any trainer. We can expect his usual bumper entry this year and with Monsieur Chevallier likely to be a leading fancy he’ll fancy his chances again but I’m going to look elsewhere for the winner…

The interesting stat for this race is the fact that fillies have won 7 of the last 10 runnings and have provided 12 winners since the races inception in 1991. This can be explained by the way the race conditions are framed and the allowances given depending on the price paid for the horse at the sales. The race is restricted to those horses purchased for £48,000 or less and 1lb is taken off the initial weight for every £3000 under than that price. With fillies generally passing through the sales ring for a lower price than their male counterparts they’re off to a good start before you take into consideration the 5lb sex allowance they also receive.

Other things to note about the 5f Super Sprint is that those horses who race prominently have a fantastic record as do those who contested the 2yo races at Royal Ascot.

Which brings us to my idea of the likely winner. She’s trained by Tom Dascombe and ran a blinder from a terrible draw at Ascot in the Albany Stakes behind Habaayib. She led for most of the way before finding the draw disadvantage take affect in the final 75 yards and finished a respectable 6th. The 7th horse that day, Jira, raced alongside the selection on the far side and has since come out and won a Listed race at Newmarket.

She entered my notebook as one to look out for next time and this race was the obvious target for her. Obviously Mr Dascombe shares my opinion as he has entered her for the race and off just 8-00 I’m very hopeful of a big run.

And her name…..ABOVE LIMITS.

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

Thanks for all the emails after Saturday’s Festival Trends big race 16/1 winner, Sirvino, and the forecast as well with top rated horse Kingdom of Fife finishing second. We were due a change of luck after a lot of big priced placed horses recently and this was just the tonic.

We move on to Ascot next before the big meeting at the end of the month, Glorious Goodwood.

If you want to get a copy of the Trends Guide for both meetings it’s just £14.95 and will include the 17 major races from both meetings. You can get it here…

Festival Trends Sign-Up Page

Good luck,

Gavin.

Newmarket July meeting….

Wednesday, July 8th, 2009
Today sees the launch of the Racing Post membership service and the grand unveiling of the charges they plan to levy on readers to access the main content of their website. I’m sure Matt will have plenty to say on the matter so I’ll leave it to him and his Geegeez post to let off some steam.

One thing I will say on the subject though, is that it seems to me they are almost embarrassed by the membership fees as trying to find out the actual cost of the service is quite hard. The email I received linked to another page with descriptions of various packages but no mention of the cost and on their website front page there is also a link to a page titled ‘Members Club Launch - All you need to know’. All you need to know except the price that is!

For those that do want to know, the basic package starts at £7.50 per month and the top package is £199.95 per annum. OUCH!

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Newmarket July Meeting

We’ve covered 3 races today in our trends guide, which can be purchased from here.

The first race of the day (1.30 Newmarket) had some weakish trends so I didn’t bother with it for the guide but there is a horse running in the race that I think should go well. First City belied her 66/1 odds to run 5th of 19 at Royal Ascot behind Moneycantbuymelove. Despite being hampered twice inside the final 2 furlongs she stuck on well and would have finished a lot closer had she avoided the trouble. She had started her season with a good 3rd behind Fantasia in a Group 3 race and with Ahmed Ajtebi able to take off 3lb looks nicely treated off a rating of 90.

Later on in the afternoon Henry Cecil introduces a impeccably bred colt in the 4.20 Newmarket called Manifest. I’ve heard good things about this one but he does have a tough introduction as the top one, Beauchamp Xerxes, has some very good form in the book. I’ll be having a few pounds on the Cecil beast though in the hope he can produce on the course what he has been doing on the gallops.

And one more for Kempton tonight which will be my attempt to get some punting money for Vegas. He runs in the 7.20 and is coming back after a fairly long layoff. Action Impact last ran on the 1st March where he was a beaten favourite but had previously ran a very good second to War of the Roses and that form is better than anything else on show in this race. Ryan Moore is onboard and he is my idea of the best bet of the day.

I’m also having a go at the Newmarket Placepot today with the following perm….

4-11-15 / 1-7-11 / 2-4-8 / 3-8 / 2-10 /1-9 = 216 bets

Good luck,
Gavin.

Weekend Wrap….

Monday, July 6th, 2009

It’s Monday so it must be time for….

THE 5 THINGS I HAVE LEARNT THIS WEEKEND.

1) I’m off to Vegas for my birthday!

Yee-hah. The missus has booked a surprise holiday for the two of us in the gambling capital of the world. The surprise being that she booked it on my credit card!
Who cares, 6 days in sin city with the little one staying at grandma’s has got to be the perfect birthday present no matter who ends up paying. What a great start that was to my weekend…

2) SEA THE STARS
Another fantastic performance from the Guineas and Derby winner puts him well on the road to immortality. He’s now won 3 Group 1 races this season over distances of 1m, 1m 4f and 1m 2f. The St. Leger over 1m 6f would complete the set and just about seal his place as one of the all time greats but as that’s unlikely we’ll have to hope John Oxx sends him to the Breeders Cup for a rematch with Rip Van Winkle and/or Fame and Glory. And I’ll be there to see it!

3) Nicky Henderson got off lightly…
He and his vet knew that using TA was against the rules and they, wrongly, thought it couldn’t be detected. It can, they got found out and they then set about lying to cover their tracks and deceiving the hearing panel. A £40,000 fine is just and is going to hurt even a big name trainer like Henderson but banning a NH trainer for 3 months out of the regular season is ridiculous. It would be like banning Sir Michael Stoute for 3 months in November-January. Henderson should have been banned until the end of the year at the very least. I can’t imagine a smaller stable doing the same thing would have got off so easily.

4) I should have been a Dutchman….
It’s there to see in black and white. Another weekend where faced with a choice of two selections I opted for the wrong one…..again! I hope you all took the hint and backed Acrostic.

Having had Matt text me within 30 seconds of the horse passing the post berating me for not recommending to ‘dutch’ the selections I can take it no more and will from now on will begin ‘dutching’ selections when faced with a straight choice of two.

(For those of you unfamiliar with the term ‘dutching’ it simply means splitting your stake between the chosen selections.)

I’ve learnt my lesson…

5) A race to look out for…

While researching our latest trends guide for Newmarket (more to follow) I stumbled across a race that has proved a reliable guide for another race run later in the season. On Wednesday, the 2nd race of the day at Newmarket is a 6f handicap for 3yo’s and in the last 8 years six of the winners have gone on to run in the Shergar Sprint at Ascot.

They finished 111214 winning at odds of 6/1, 6/4, 9/2 and 4/1 which can’t be too bad.

So get out the notepad and pen and mark down the winner of the 2pm Newmarket on Wednesday.

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FESTIVAL TRENDS

The July Meeting at Newmarket is the next port of call for our Festival Trends Guide and we’ll be covering 3 races each day from Racing HQ. There will also be a Special Bonus race included which will be Saturday’s John Smith’s Cup at York.

It’s just £9.95 and available by clicking here…

or for just £19.99 you can subscribe for the entire month of July and receive Newmarket, York, Ascot and Glorious Goodwood.

Coming soon….

Saturday, July 4th, 2009

Test….