Probably the hardest of the 3 group 1 races this weekend with so many potentially high class fillies and lots of unexposed maiden winners, further complicated by Aiden O’Brien having 6 declared runners. Let’s see if we can narrow the field down a bit…..

Firstly, I think we can safely knock out Ice Queen who was a well beaten favourite in the Lingfield Oaks Trial (only 1 winner of this race has gone on to Oaks Glory in the last decade). The winner and 2nd in that race also line up on Friday but I can’t see the form of that race being good enough to win an above average looking Oaks…so goodbye Miracle Seeker and Look Here also.
The other Trial race that I can’t see being strong enough to provide this years Oaks winner is the Cheshire Oaks. The race itself is a poor guide to the Oaks with only 2 winners from the past 57 runnings and I can’t see this years winner Sail or runner-up Sugar Mint bucking that trend.
Of the other O’Brien ladies, stable jockey ‘group 1 Johnny’ has chosen Adored. This filly won a group 3 race at Naas last time where she beat stablemate Tiffany Diamond by 1 3/4 lengths. The trouble with this form is that Tiffany Diamond had previously been beaten in a 50-75 handicap and is only rated 73. Even allowing for the fact that fillies can show vast improvement in form at this time of year I think it takes a big leap of faith to believe either one of these two will win the Oaks.

Chinese White and Katiyra strike me as two very similar fillies. Both come from a top stable, both with big reputations and both inexperienced with masses of potential. Chinese White, unbeaten and still green when winning a listed race by over 4 lengths looks the likelier of the two for me. The wily Weld immediately nominated the Irish Oaks as the likely next target but has had a change of mind (not for the first time) and decided to run her at Epsom. I just feel that this race may come to soon in her career and will reluctantly look elsewhere.

The race that seems to hold the key to the Oaks is the Musidora. Won in very impressive fashion by Lush Lashes, she seemed to relish the step up in distance and will be very hard to beat on Friday. I cannot see how any of the horses that finished behind her can possibly reverse the form such was the manner of her victory and will therefore put a line through both Cape Amber and another O’Brien runner Moonstone. On the down side, the last 7 winners of the Musidora have all been beaten at Epsom (though 5 have been placed and the 2006 runner-up went onto Oaks glory). The going may also be against her as her two wins have been on Good/Firm and her worst run came on her reappearance this year on soft going.

This just leaves one O’Brien runner left, and to me, also the most interesting. Savethisdanceforme ran in both English and Irish Guineas but I don’t think she appreciated the firm ground on either occasion and has shown most of her best form with a bit of give in the ground. O’Brien horses that contested the Irish 1000 Guineas have always performed very well in the Oaks (Imagine, Shahtoush, Yesterday, Quarter Moon and Peeping Fawn all ran in both races) and I am expecting a big run from this one. The step up in trip should help her and at around 50/1 is a live outsider.

The Irish definitely have a stranglehold on this years Oaks with over half the field and 4 of the top 5 in the betting. The lowest priced British horse is currently Clowance. She won the Swettenham Stud Fillies Trial, a race not traditionally seen as a very good indicator for Epsom. However, she beat a 107 rated filly in some style, is obviously improving and will love the ground. She should run a big race and is one for the shortlist.
The unbeaten filly Saphira’s Fire won her trial at Newmarket but the Pretty Polly Stakes is probably one of the worst guides to the Oaks of all the trials. Only Ouija Board has done the double out of the last 8 to have tried and I think it’s safe to say that Saphira’s Fire is no Ouija Board! She’s not for me.

Which just leaves Michita. The John Gosden trained filly absolutely bolted up at Goodwood last time in the Height of Fashion Stakes (previously the Lupe stakes). She won by 4 1/2 lengths and went straight into my notebook as a likely winner of the Oaks. She handled Goodwood’s downhill finish well, quickened up immediately when asked and will go on the ground. Barring accidents, she looks nailed on for the frame.

Selection: Michita
Danger: Lush Lashes
Each Way: Savethisdanceforme

That just leaves the Derby and I’ll be posting my review of the big race later.
Good luck all.

that my blog writing career doesn’t fall at the first hurdle.

Anyway, here goes…..

First of the three group races run at Epsom this weekend is the Coronation Cup.

A very interesting statistic for this race is that every winner since 1989 recorded a top 3 finish in a group race last time out. If we apply this rule to the field for this years race we see only two horses qualify, Getaway and Macarthur.
This can only mean one of two things,

1) We have uncovered a fantastic betting oppurtunity
or
2) Benjamin Disraeli was right- there are lies, damn lies and statistics

I’m inclined to go with the first option because I think the two horses in question have a fantastic chance anyway. Getaway’s trainer Andre Fabre has won this race 5 times since 1990 and last won it in 2006 with Shirrocco. He won at Epsom after winning the Jockey Club Stakes at Newmarket, the same race Getawaytook this year in very impressive fashion. That race has been a good pointer for the Coronation Cup (4 winners and 8 places since 1995)and Getaway, on his favoured softish ground, looks a very worthy favourite
As for Macarthur I think he is massively overpriced. This is mainly due to Aiden O’Briens other runner Soldier of Fortune being in the race. He has much the better form of the two but hasn’t had a run this year and no horse has won this race on his seasonal reappearance since 1988.
O’Brien has won 2 ofthe last 3 runnings of this race and provided the 1-2 last year with Scorpion and Septimus. Scorpion won at Epsom on the back of a battling defeat in the Ormonde Stakes at Chester (a race Daliapour had won taken prior to winning the Coronation Cup) and this years Ormonde winner was none other than Macarthur.

Andre Fabre and Aiden O’Brien obviously know what it takes to win this race and though Getaway has all the credentials I can just see Macarthur running a massive race at a big price.

At about 5/4 and 16/1 respectively I think we can afford to back them both.

I’ll be back later with an in-depth Oaks preview.

this is your new blogger Gavin.
*******
I thought I’d write a few words before previewing the Epsom meeting firstly to introduce myself and secondly to thank Matt for giving me an opportunityto share my racing thoughts.

As Matt said, we have been great friends for many years and from Breeders Cup racing to owning shares in various horses to doing our money in less salubrious betting shops and race courses throughout the country we’ve shared some great racing experiences.

My favourite trainer is Henry Cecil; Keiran Fallon is my all time favourite jockey (Steve Cauthen a close 2nd) and Mtoto and Dylan Thomas the best race horses I’ve seen. I can’t abide Richard Quinn and Mick Kinane’s riding at the breeders cup over the years can still give me nightmares.
I play poker in my spare time and competed in the World Series main event in Las Vegas last year, with Matt cheering me on from the rails.
As Matt mentioned I’ve owned and run betting shops for over 20 years and been a punter for more years than I should have. I have fond memories of missing Maths lessons to wile away the hours in the Fred Ash betting shop in Torquay. He only ever asked me if I was old enough to bet when I was lucky enough to back a winner, which in those days wasn’t that often. I guess gambling has been in my blood from an early age.

As for the blog, I know you are all aware of Matt’s unbiased and honest reviewing of the various racing systems available and have grown to trust hisopinion in this veritable minefield of good, bad and ugly products. It is these values that have seen Nag3 become one of the most popular and trusted Racing sites on the internet and it is these same values that I will endeavour to uphold when writing my pieces.

So thanks Matt and I’ll try not to ruin all your hard work!!

p.s. Matt asked me to tell you that Rapid City is down to run tomorrow night at Kempton (7.10), having been pulled out last week due to the ground. Track, trip, and pace are all in RC’s favour tomorrow, but it may just be too high a class race. As ever, Matt will be punting his nag with his heart rather than his head…

Also, there was another big priced winner for TFS today…..12/1 Moonstreaker

Hope you were all on but if not, just a reminder that although the guide is unavailable you can still get a subscription to the email service. Better still, you can try it for free for seven days at

www.trainerflatstats.com/subscriptions.html

I’ve been letting the train take the strain, dear reader, over the last couple of days. The reason is that I’ve been enjoying some time in Wales with my great friend Gavin and his family (which includes my godson, Dylan

Gavin is a racing friend of mine who I’ve known for some 17 years now - getting on for half my life!

And very knowledgeable about the game he is too. He blooming well should be: for as long as I’ve known him, he’s owned and run betting shops!

The good news for us is that I’ve persuaded him to write down some of his thoughts on the blog here over the coming months, and the even better news is that he’s going to start this week (all things being equal) with a preview of the Oaks and Derby, scheduled for next weekend.

Furthermore, Gavin’s got a few dark horses (and some not so very dark ones!) for Royal Ascot, which is only a couple of weeks away.

He takes a different approach to me quite often, by burying his head in the collateral formbook for days on end. But he’s also a trends man, so you can expect some incisive comments of the winner profiles for big races in the coming months. And, as you’d expect, having watched so much racing over the years, he has a very good eye for ‘notebook’ horses.

I’ll say no more on this now, except to advise you to look out for a piece in the next few days. If you like it, please add a comment at the bottom (using the ‘comments’ link), so that Gavin feels welcomed to our little group… :o)

Being as it is the 1st June today, I thought I’d give you an update on TrainerFlatStats.

After a modest March where we made £83 from just a handful of runners (more than enough to pay for the guide!), TFS made a flying start in the beginning of April, before coming unstuck a bit at the end of that month. In fact, despite everything, the loss for April was a paltry £23 in the end.

May has been a brilliant month, and it was topped off in emphatic style yesterday with winners at 12/1 and 15/2 (both available at significantly bigger on betfair) from five qualifiers. (We also had a 2nd at 7/2 and a 3rd at 5/4).

Total profit for May was a whopping £935, to £20 stakes on betfair (calculated at 16% over SP, and with a 4.5% commission on winning trades).

The long and short of this is that TFS is now up £995 on the season for just £20’s. Or 50 points to whatever stakes you’d use yourself.

Although the guide remains unavailable (well done if you got a copy!), you can still get a subscription to the email service. Better still, you can try it for free for seven days before even considering spending a penny (as it were). Get a TFS trial by clicking below:

Finally, the month of May was also a lucrative one for Favourites’ Phenomenon followers (that’s easy for me to write, though not to say!).

Level 3 backers collected on all betting days, for a profit of 27 points on the month; Level 2 players were rewarded with 13 points profit on the month having suffered one losing day; and, Level 1 players enjoyed 13.5 points profit in May, with just two losing days.

(Remember, the levels equate to degrees of risk, so for Level 1 punters, the risk threshold is much lower, meaning losing days are considerably more palatable).

FP is still available at the usual place, and there is going to be some more good news on this in the next couple of weeks (I hope). Stay tuned for that, if you’re interested.

Let’s hope June can continue in the same rich vein of form, irrespective of which system you’re following… (perhaps you’re one of the shrewdies whose been cleaning up on both!)

In fact, if it’s half as good, we’ll all be sitting pretty come July time.

That’s all for now, but remember to check out Gavin’s inaugural post later this week.

Matt