It’s Guineas weekend, dear reader, and it reminds me of one of my favourite posts since I started doing, this ‘ere blog. Last year, I previewed the 2,000 Guineas in the style of Elmer Fudd, the syntactically challenged wabbit hunter in Bugs Bunny.
The tip was wubbish, the post hilawious. See it here…
On to this year’s race, and it looks pretty straightforward (as so many races do on paper, prior to the nasty but necessary elements of turf, horseflesh and human interaction entering the equation).
The stats over the last ten years show some reasonably strong traits:
10/10 won at least once at 2
9/10 were either having their 3yo debut, OR had won their only 3yo start
The last winners had all placed or better in a Group race at 2
9/10 were 11/1 or shorter on the day (exception was last year’s winner)
Applying these four stats and, after stat one, we lose one rag. After stat two, we lose four. Stat three boots out six of the remaining ten.
The four left standing are New Approach, Ibn Khaldun, Henrythenavigator, and Stimulation.
The last named may be too big a price, which leaves us the previous three.
It’s difficult to pick between them, but 50% of the last ten winners (yes, five of them!) were Irish trained (from far fewer runners), as New Approach and Henryetc. are.
To counter that, only one of the last ten runnings has gone to the favourite (George Washington in 2006). So I’d be a little wary of lumping on the New Approach at 6/4 or thereabouts, despite apparently bombproof form.
The thing with taking so many horses first time out, is a hell of a lot needs to be taken on trust. And trusting in dumb animals at short prices may not be the way to the counting house. So, on value grounds only, I will split my stake 40/40/20 on Ibn, Henry, and Stimulation (or 50/50 if the latter drifts on the day).
When New Approach wins, I’ll be thrilled of course… ahem.
Moving on to the ladies on Sunday, and - although I’m not really a fan of adding the whimsies of the fairer sex to the aforementioned imponderables of first time outer’s (with apologies to any unwhimsical fillies reading this!) - there remain some strong patterns here too.
Over the last decade, the stats say this:
10/10 won at 2
9/10 were either having their 3yo debut, OR had won their only 3yo start
9/10 were placed or better in Group class at 2
10/10 were 14/1 or shorter
Interestingly, the point about placing or better in Group races as a juvenile strikes out both Infallible and Muthabara, who may just not have enough class for this.
The quartet who make the shortlist are Kitty Matcham, Natagora, Spacious and Laureldean Gale.
I think it may be misleading to say that 8/10 were British trained, because probably 80% of runners were British too!
Natagora, if she stays, may well win, but no less than six of the last ten winners were 10/1-14/1. I know many of you will be yelling at your pc’s, “but the horse doesn’t know what price she is!”, and you may be right.
I happen to think that on one of the most studied races of the season, the market will not be too far away from reality.
On that debatably tenuous basis, I’ll cut my shortlist to Kitty Matcham and Laureldean Gale (probable back to lay, given that Dettori rides, currently 25 on betfair…), and hope for some luck with the lay-deez…
Good luck with your fancies at Newmarket.
A note about Thirsk tomorrow from a draw perspective: if it rains between now and then in Yorkshire, and it surely will, then look to the low boxes in the big field sprint at 4.55. Each way plays on Charles Parnell, Tartatartufata, and Jilly Why may prove lucrative: they’re drawn 1, 2 and 3 and they’ve all won on good to soft or softer.
Of course, if I’m wrong about the draw, we’ll all have done six units!
Finally, now that the doors are shut for TTS (end of season) and TFS (window still open for subscription only), time for a spot of Friday Fun. And, this week, I have an amusing little music quiz for you.
[TFS today: five run so far, 2nd 9/4, 1st 13/8, 3rd 4/1, forecast 4/1 and 10/1 (1st and 2nd): exacta £70.00 to a £1]
Guess the song from the statistical representation:
Toodlepip!
Matt