…followed the advice here, dear reader, because we’ve had a cracking few days.

As you know, I’m not normally prone to hyperbole, and certainly I’m generally more self-effacing than I’m likely to be in this post. But…

Favourites Phenomenon continues to lay an egg a day (note, it’s not a golden one) for its followers, so well done to you if you’re in. If you’re not, you still can be by going here:

And TrainerFlatStats has had a fine few days, and was boosted today with winners at 5/1 and 14/1. That means that the betfair profit position (16% above SP, with a 4.5% commission paid on winning bets) is a very pleasing £787 for just £20 stakes.

In fact, even if you’d bet at SP with your high street bookie (not that any of you savvy folks still do that!), you’d be up £401 for the same £20 units.

Now, I just want to pause for a second here… I want to address the nay-sayers and the refund merchants momentarily. My TFS web page explicitly states

If you’re looking for every bet to be a winner, then this is NOT for you either. The statistics show that over the season you will show a tidy profit, but your first bet (and even your second and third bets) may not yield a winner.

And yet, still, I had people ask for their money back the day after they’d bought it. If you’re one of these people, I’ll say this in your defence: you may well have been directed to me from another product vendor who you trust, and you may never have heard of me.

If that is you, I hope that you’ve now realised from the frank and in some cases scathing product assessments I post here, that I only favourably review things that I believe are genuinely good. I won’t always get it right, but I almost always will, and I will only ever review products that offer a full ‘no arguments’ money back guarantee. That’s the deal!

Ok, so that’s off my chest. You unfortunately can’t buy TFS, because I got fed up with the scam artists and rip off scumbags who posted the download link on forum sites (and, if I’m honest, the next day refund brigade as well). I pulled it from sale for these reasons, even though of course I could have sold more.

You can still get a free trial for seven days of the email subscription, and this is the only way you can get access to TFS. Click here if you’re interested in the TFS free trial, though of course you’ve probably signed up on the start of a downward curve! ;o)

But, well done if you either purchased the guide when you could, or signed up to the email subscription service either then or since. (Season results can be found here…)

Enough of this merry self-serving back-slapping, and onto tomorrow’s racing!

It’s Beverley folks, and you know what that means!

Tomorrow’s card is the feature in their racing calendar, with the Listed 2yo fillies’ race, the Hilary Needler Trophy over… five furlongs. Woohoo!

High draw right? Hmm… You’d think so wouldn’t you after our recent gravy train exploits by blindly backing the high numbers, but three of the last four winners have been drawn 1, 3 and 1, all in double digit fields.

Belligerent as ever, and blinded by this season’s success to date, I’m going to ignore that little microcosm of draw perversity, and go high again. And I’m actually going to go with the highest of the high.

Percolator, in box 14 (of 14), has won his last two races by an aggregate of eight and a half lengths (value for ten plus), and might just go clear and stay clear. I reckon she’s headed for Royal Ascot after this. You heard it here first.

If you want something a little more speculative, then pay attention to Christine Dunnett, the Queen of Yarmouth (what a title!). She does very well at the Norfolk gaff, and I reckon Life’s A Whirl may entertain you at a big each way price. Fun bets only though.

******

Finally, my dear old Rapid City is entered up at Sandown on Thursday night, on what must be the best evening racing card of the season (ever?!). The Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes always used to be the highlight of the card, but has now been usurped by the Group 2 Henry II Stakes, a staying event that has attracted a belting field.

As if that wasn’t enough, there’s also TWO Listed races, including the National Stakes for 2yo’s that is often a pointer to Royal Ascot winners. Look out for Hannon and Channon who have targeted this race for many years.

I remember watching open-mouthed as Bint Allayl sluiced up here as far back as 1998. Lucky Leigh represents Mick Channon this time, and Richard Hannon has Icesolator. I won’t be going any further down the card than those two for the winner.

I’ll be there, and if you live in the vicinity and enjoy your racing, then you should be too!

Until next time,
Matt

Racing systems, dear reader, often remind me of Spaghetti Westerns. There are so many cowboys out there looking for A Fistful of Dollars, and most will try to flog another product For A Few Dollars More. That’s why I try to help by picking out The Good, The Bad and the Ugly of horse racing systems… (with apologies to Clint Eastwood).

After the bad Betfair Loophole, and the ugly Lay51 Operation, I’m pleased to report on a good system for a change.

To recap, Favourites Phenomenon (FP) is a Stop At A Winner system. This means that you have a target profit for the day, and you stop once you’ve achieved it. There is nothing new in this approach, but most systems predicated on such a methodology are too open-ended, meaning that the risk exposure becomes something for hedge fund traders or those of very stern constitution only.

FP acknowledges that different users will be at different points on the racing learning curve, and also will have different appetites to risk. Sensibly, then, the system comes with three different staking plans - or levels - to appeal to beginners, intermediate and professionals alike.

The staking plan has two elements to it that ensure a user will never get out of his or her comfort zone / depth, and will never be chasing in vain.

However, the flip side of ’stop loss’ points is that it does mean that occasionally you have to take a hit. How occasionally depends on the level you play at. It is recommended - quite rightly, in my opinion - that when you choose a level, you should stay at that level for a good period of time (say three months) before changing. Chopping and changing is not a good strategy, and could find you out.

Banks are recommended with a number of points commensurate to the level of risk you are prepared to accommodate. This means that, as long as you remain disciplined, you should continue to grow your bank little by little.

What this is not, is a system that will give you the possibility of bragging about regular big priced winners.

What it is, is a system that will provide consistent unit increments to your bank, and give you (very) regular winning days. This is offset by the fact that losing days will cost you more than a unit, but never more than the threshold that you’ve decided upon.

Moreover, sometimes there may be a no bet day. This is easy to work out, as is the amount to stake on each qualifier, because the system comes with a spreadsheet to do the number crunching for you.

Simply enter your profit target, and the likely odds of each qualifier (based on betfair prices), and the spreadie will tell you your maximum liability for your level. If the likely odds breach your max, keep your wonger in your wallet and wait for tomowwow!

I’ve tracked it since Sunday, and I’ve comfortably made my target each day. In fact, the biggest worry I had was on that Sunday, when I had to wait until qualifying race 6 to collect.

If I’d be playing at Level 1, I’d have actually had a losing day there at a cost of £45 (to win my target of £10). Subsequently, throughout the week, I’d have won my other five days with no worries and be showing a profit on the week.

Today, incidentally, the target was reached on the very first race.

At Levels 2 or 3, I’d have been £60 up to this point.

Another thing to note about FP is that you need to be tracking the racing to do this. If, like most people, you have to work during the day, you have three options:

1. Only use the system at weekends
2. Use the system in the evenings
3. Use ‘bot software to place your bets for you

It should be said that the author, Matt Watson, has no stats for the evening racing. But, from a position of logic, and also tracking the results this week, there’s no reason why this shouldn’t be equally effective (it’s just that Matt doesn’t have the data to support this).

On point 3, Matt is having his own software developed which will automate as much of the (very simple) process as possible.

In summary, I’m not surprised that this has performed well this week, as losing weeks are rare with such a methodology if applied with discipline and patience. It isn’t an exciting system (if you want one of those then TrainerFlatStats is for you!), but it is a consistent profit nicker.

I’ve seen the results since 2006, and they’re impressive:

2006 212 points
2007 333 points
2008 88 points (to end April)

Total 633 points

These are credible substantiated results that you can actually independently check for yourself (once you’re signed up, Matt will show you how).

I’m giving this system a 9 out of 10 rating. I may upgrade that in due course, when I’ve used it more myself.

It is simple; has a proven track record (independently verifiable); has a money back guarantee; and the author provides excellent customer service.

It’s basically a system that I’d be proud to market as my own, and have no hesitation in recommending it to you.

Go get yourself a copy now!

I’ve today been reacquainted with pain, as a long made promise to myself was fulfilled. Yes, I was seen tootling along Bond Street this afternoon, prior to popping into Selfridges.

Where’s the pain there? Well, I was visiting my girlfriend’s cousin Flan, who is the tattoo man there. And I now have a marvellous galloping horse silhouette emblazoned on my left arm. Once the redness has dissipated I may post a picture of it on here. Then again, I may not…!

As promised, I’ve been tracking the Betfair Kingpin system today, albeit briefly.

The truth is that I followed it for two races, and in one of them I found the winner at 7/2! But, man, is there a lot of faff associated with it. I had to check my trading position a few times prior to the off, and I was trying to do a number of races in the same time frame. I’d planned to track all the racing this afternoon but I gave up.

It might be ok, but it’s bloody hard to follow! To be honest, I doubt that the tiny sample of two races which showed a profit will be scaled up over time. And, although I’ve been offered generous enough terms to promote this, I won’t be.

You can check it out here, if you’d like to.

http://www.betfairkingpin.com

Be wary of the promises of discounts, early adopter bonuses (which will be available to all buyers I imagine), and limited numbers for sale: believe it or not, these are tactics used to try to get you to part with your money…! ;o)

Tomorrow sees some Irish Classic action, and I’ll keep it brief. Barring a deluge, Henry beats New Approach, with nothing except the unexposed Jupiter Pluvius of any concern.

Elsewhere, further down the equine talent leagues, they race at dear old Beverley (to be renamed Bev-gravy: yes, I know its not clever or catchy, but it has been true thus far this season!)

The favourite has the worst draw in the opening juvenile maiden, and looks lay material (at 5/2 or shorter).

The fields are very small thereafter, so it would be remiss to get too carried away, and I can’t really find anything to whet my whistle on.

Low at Catterick on fast ground is also a good call in the sprints. In the 2.45, a maiden for serial losers, Messrs Parr and Barr may have the winner between their respective entrants: Bishopbriggs and Kyzer Chief. But minimum stakes only here, as it’s a truly dire affair.

Recent Times looks the answer in the 4.20, b
ut these are maiden fillies, so again caution is advised.

For me though, it’s all about Henrythenavigator, unless rain threatens play.

Just time for a bit of Friday Fun, care of my TFS email man, Kev. They may or may not be apocryphal, but they’re funny nevertheless!

After every flight, Qantas pilots fill out a form, called a 'gripe sheet', which tells mechanics about problems with the aircraft. The mechanics 

correct the problems & document their repairs on the form, and then pilotsreview the gripe sheets before the next flight. Never let it be said that ground crews lack a sense of humour.

Here are some actual maintenance complaints submitted by Qantas' pilots (marked with a P) and the solutionsrecorded (marked with an S) by maintenance engineers.   

By the way, Qantas isthe only major airline that has never had an accident. 

P: Left inside main tyre almost needs replacement

S: Almost replaced left inside main tyre.

P: Test flight OK, except auto-land very rough.

S: Auto-land not installed on this aircraft.

P: Something loose in cockpit.

S: Something tightened in cockpit.

P: Dead bugs on windshield.

S: Live bugs on back-order.

P: Autopilot in altitude-hold mode produces a 200 feet per minute descent.

S: Cannot reproduce problem on ground.

P: Evidence of leak on right main landing gear.

S: Evidence removed.

P: DME volume unbelievably loud.

S: DME volume set to more believable level.

P: Friction locks cause throttle levers to stick.

S: That's what they're for.

P: IFF inoperative.

S: IFF always inoperative in OFF mode.

P: Suspected crack in windshield.

S: Suspect you're right.

P: Number 3 engine missing.

S: Engine found on right wing after brief search.

P: Aircraft handles funny.

S: Aircraft warned to straighten up, fly right, and be serious.

P: Target radar hums.

S: Reprogrammed target radar with lyrics.

P: Mouse in cockpit.

S: Cat installed.

P: Noise coming from under instrument panel. Sounds like a midget pounding on something with a hammer.S: Took hammer away from midget

That’s it from me for today. Get hold of FP, if you haven’t already, and have yourself a steady and lucrative Bank Holiday weekend!

Matt

Systems, systems, and more systems, dear reader. It seems we’re in the midst of systems silly season.

So it is with that sentiment that I urge you to brace yourself for a surge of email spin appertaining to the latest ‘killer’ product to hit the market, the Betfair Kingpin.

I’ve managed to get my hands on a preview copy, (Actually, it wasn’t that difficult. I just asked for one!), and I’ll be trialling it tomorrow - prior to its official launch on Saturday evening - to see if its any good.

There is some established logic behind the approach, but I am little apprehensive as to how it will perform under test.

So hang fire until I’ve looked at it before succumbing to the hypnotic sales letter you’re about to be redirected to in every other electronic missive you receive for the next few days. You might be glad you did!

Day Five with Favourites Phenomenon, and point five on the gravy train. The system continues to accrue it’s daily bread with the minimum of fuss. Though, as a means of breaking the lucrative monotony, I did have to enquire about one of the rules today. The answer was that the horse in question did not qualify, but won anyway!

I had made my unit by the second race today, with a maximum liability of a whopping £10.40…

I’m liking FP, for obvious reasons, and - if you haven’t done so already - I encourage to check out the FP webpage here. Send your questions to Matt (Watson, the author) if you don’t find the answer there.

No luck today using the draw biases, with Quirina well beaten (expected bias did not materialise as the first three were drawn 5, 6, and 7 of 14, and not higher as hoped for). I should have stuck to ‘no bet’ here!

Over at Salisbury, I again should have avoided the lady amateur riders’ race, but didn’t and Vanadium is - to the best of my knowledge - still running.

More unlucky for us (and for me personally, if you’ll forgive my public blubbing) was Stamford Blue. Yesterday, I’d opined,

Stamford Blue, who won here during a purple patch last season, and is well drawn for Ron Harris, could go well. He has actually won at the track three times; started his winning run at this time last season (here); and is back to a mark below his top winning handicap rating. Current form means a leap of faith is required, but given a fair few positives, he’s worth a small each way tickle.

Well, blow me if he wasn’t caught on the line by Sheamus Shindig. Stamford was sent off 14/1, and was drawn 10 of 11. The first three home were drawn 11, 10 and 9 respectively, and the tricast paid £393 for a £1!

Regular readers will know that this is not an isolated incidence of draw bias monopolising the podium positions, and I’ll continue to scout the favoured sides for you.

Finally, a quick line on TrainerFlatStats which, after another trough in the feast-famine cycle that perpetuates throughout the season, has enjoyed another banquet today.

You can see the full seasonal results here:

And, if you feel so inclined, you can get a week’s free email trial here:

Until next time,
Matt

How often does it happen, dear reader, that you say something is simple and the very next day it kicks you in the teeth?

Not for nothing is my favourite saying, “there’s many a slip ‘twixt cup and lip”, and it pays to exercise additional diligence when your cups are system rules and your lips are equine beasties.

But not with FP, it seems. To date, there have been very few slips, and none of them have resulted in spillage… which is to say in layman’s terms that I slurped up my fourth point of the week today, from a possible four.

Today, I had to sweat a little more than the last couple of days, but not quite as much as on Sunday. When I say ’sweat’, and when I ask in the teasing title whether the forecast had begun to turn nasty, I am actually trying to inject a hint of drama and intrigue into a system review that has, to this point, been the investment equivalent of boiling water.

Now, in fairness, it should be pointed out that the nature of this type of methodology is that they are characterized by winning days, but one should not lose sight of the impact a losing day can have.

Matt Watson, the system author, sensibly recommends a decent sized bank (which varies according to the level you intend to trade at), and a losing day would wipe out the easy pickings banked thus far.

So, a modicum of balance attempted, I’ll report back again tomorrow on Day Five of the great water boiling road test!

Tomorrow is the second day of Goodwood’s early season meeting, and it will be interesting to see if the high draw bias over 1m1f maintains itself. Today’s 13 runner handicap was won by the 9/2 TrainerFlatStats runner, McConnell, who was drawn 10 of 13. The places were taken by horses drawn 8 and 11 (the latter a 50/1 shot), and the fourth home was drawn 12.

The 1m1f race tomorrow is a 14 runner maiden fillies event, which normally shouts ‘NO BET’ at me. But I can’t resist having the traps on my side, and I like Quirina to optimize her draw in the top stall (14 of 14). Dangers are likely to be Madame Hoi and Lush, but I’ll take John Gosden’s filly against this mob.

At Salisbury, it may pay to lean on the high side in the sprint races, so I’ll be having a very small interest in Vanadium in the lady amateur riders’ handicap (another race where I’d normally never wager in!).

Later on, Stamford Blue, who won here during a purple patch last season, and is well drawn for Ron Harris, could go well. He has actually won at the track three times; started his winning run at this time last season (here); and is back to a mark below his top winning handicap rating. Current form means a leap of faith is required, but given a fair few positives, he’s worth a small each way tickle.

If you prefer a more mundane (and more likely) winning wager tomorrow, you might prefer to check out the Favourites Phenomenon system…

Until next time…
Matt

p.s. Breaking News: TFS just had its second winner of the day at 11/4 (from 7/2), to complement McConnell at 9/2 (from 15/2). Although the guide is no longer available to purchase, you can subscribe for a very fair monthly fee, and you get 7 days free trial. Click here to take advantage of my generosity!

Remember World of Sport, dear reader? ITV’s lame attempt at competing with BBC’s far superior Saturday sports magazine programme had just two things going for it:

1. Dickie Davies, the presenter with the bizarre Cruella Deville silver streak in his coiffed bouffant
2. Bald fat men in leotards profusely sweating over each other in the working mens’ clubs of the North

And it was to this latter allusion that I was reminded over the last couple of days, with the familiar refrain of dear old Shirley Crabtree (or ‘Big Daddy’ to 70’s wrestling fans) ringing in my ears as I reached my profit target for the day.

“Easy! Easy! Easy!”

That’s how it’s been with Favourites Phenomenon (FP, if you will) for the last two days, as I’ve collected on my very first qualifying race to withdraw my desired unit profit.

In fact, my exposure - having been as high as £75.80 on Sunday - has yet to top a tenner in the two days since, and I’ve collected a facile three units ‘gravy’ without turning a hair.

I’ll continue to track FP’s progress throughout the week, and - in case you want to follow it yourself (ahead of time!) - you can pick up a copy here:

Elsewhere, and I noticed on Saturday that another of my alternative ten ran - and won - in the shape of the Henry Cecil trained Rattan. Sent off a warm 5/2 favourite, he sluiced up by five lengths and the assistant trainer admitted he wasn’t even fully wound up. Surely Royal Ascot beckons (Royal Hunt Cup would be my guess).

Less impressive, largely because he ran terribly, was Astrodome who is also one of the ten. He ran this evening, and think has just about finished. He was sent off 7/2 so is clearly expected to do better. Don’t write off just yet.

Record to date for the ten is: eleven runs, three wins, four places and four unplaced.

More on FP as the week progresses…

Matt

Systems, dear reader, are my favourite means of making money from my betting. The rationale behind this should be obvious: if something has proven to work in the past, then why shouldn’t it work in the future?

An equally obvious response to this is that some systems can be perceived as back fitted. That is, there are no logical reasons for the system rules, and therefore the creator was merely using historical info to come up with something with a positive number in the profit and loss column.

Occasionally, these ’systems’ can continue to make money because there may be ‘hidden’ logic, or reasons that are not at first obvious. But, generally, if a system doesn’t have logic to its ruleset, then it’s a piece of poo…

So, having pilloried a badly written system with false claims last week, I approach these two systems with a little more optimism.

Favourites Phenomenon (FP hereafter for, I hope, obvious reasons!) is the system we’ll look at this week.

FP is a backing system that relies on its staking plan as much as its rules. It’s what’s known as a ‘Stop at a Winner’ (or SAW) system, which means, erm, you stop after you’ve backed a winner. Now there’s nothing new about this staking strategy, but aligned with the right methodology or system, it can be a very powerful approach.

First up with the FP, it has a refreshingly candid and unhyperbolic sales page . A rarity still, but I think the future of systems sales pages.

FP does not promise to make you a million in your first month using it. But it does systematically raise and then dispel a majority of concerns you might have about using the system. (Incidentally, if you have a question that isn’t covered, the author encourages you to share it with him, and he will reply).

Moreover, it’s gotten excellent results over a sustained period of time. When you sign up, you can see the results for the last two and a half years, and the results for May are 15 points profit, using Level 3.

Profit for the month is less if you’d used Levels 1 or 2.

“Levels Matt? What are you talking about?”, I hear you ask. (At least, I thought I heard you ask…)

Sorry, I should have mentioned: in order to make this accessible to beginners and experienced punters alike, and to risk averse and venture capitalists (!) alike, there are three levels of approach.

Level 1 is for beginners or risk averse punters, and has the earliest ’stop loss’ point. Levels 2 and 3 are gradually more aggressive in their stop loss points.

The biggest profits are to be had with Level 3, but also the greatest exposure to a heavy loss day. These do happen, but are mercifully rare (roughly two or three a year).

FP has been on the market for around a month now, and it has already received very strong feedback from one of the more independent betting sites on the web, Secret Betting Club.

Furthermore, the system author (Matt Watson) has been in regular touch with me since before I started the blog, when I was a vendor of TrainerTrackStats way back in 2006. He has consistently demonstrated an insight into his racing, and is a shrewd guy.

He offers a full money back refund with no quibbles, which as you know, is a pre-condition for me reviewing any product. And, moreover, he is extremely approachable. So, if you’re not sure about anything (and I mean anything!), then simply drop Matt a line and he will come back to you with a reply.

[I know this because I've harrassed him a couple of times myself in the last fortnight!]

Anyway, the nature of the system is such that I cannot post the selections ahead of time, but I will post daily with an update. We are trying to win a point a day, and we stop as soon as that goal is achieved.

In order to win our point, we back horses under certain conditions. At a given point, if things have not gone in our favour, we wipe our metaphorical mouth, and wait for tomorrow.

FP comes complete with a calculator to work out whether you should be playing on a given day, and what your potential liability will be.

If you can’t wait for the results this week, or if you just want to check out the sales page, you can do so here:

Next up (probably next week) will be the Frontline Lay system which, as the name suggests, is a lay product. I received an email inviting me to promote this about two weeks ago, but didn’t think anything of it. (The truth is, as you might expect, I receive a lot of such emails).

Having not heard of the author before, I was a tad guarded about the system. However, I’ve since received an email from a regular correspondent telling me that he is using it with some success. So I thought I’d track it on here for a time.

The sales pitch is a little novice-y, but that’s irrelevant really. We’re after performance over pitch every time!

As I write this, I’m awaiting a reply from Ross with a review copy, so will revert as soon as I can on this.

Hope you’ve had a great weekend!
Matt

Mayhem and bedlam, dear reader, that’s the only way to describe this week. It’s been carnageous! (Ok, so I made that last word up, but you know what I mean).

First of all, I opened a significant can of worms by reviewing unfavourably the Lay 51 Operation manual. In fairness to both Stephen Brookes and Steven Lee Jones, both of whom have been in touch with me multiple times this week, as far as I can tell they have ceased promoting this product (which was penned by neither of them).

This was followed by a funeral down in Dorset for a dear aunt in midweek: she was old and it was coming, but these things are never savoury experiences. May she rest in peace.

And now, I finally have a chance to pause for breath….

Ok, so perhaps I could have just done that metaphorically… No matter. For, as I regroup my thoughts, its onwards and upwards to the weekend’s equine action. Aside from the Group 1 Juddmonte Lockinge Stakes at Newbury tomorrow, there’s a hatful of hardcore handicapping h-action to challenge our minds and our wallets into submission.

But what are we, if we shy from risking ridicule and lampoonery - as well as pounds and pence - by attempting to solve the insoluble, impenetrable conundrums with their myriad unfathomable imponderables?! (Excuse me, while I change my dentures!)

So let’s use the draw and the stats, for that is the game, to try to tease some profitable insights. (Incidentally, after Blue Bajan leapt off the shortlist last week to land the Swinton Hurdle, and some hefty wagers having been backed from double digits to 4/1 jolly, the record over the last few weeks is pretty impressive, though I say so myself).

The Lockinge first, as we should start with a race in which we at least have a feline in Hades’ (that’s a cat in Hell’s) chance of trapping the gold medallist.

Twelve runners to post, and the ten year trends say this:

10/10 were either seasonal debutants (9/10, excluding Nad Al Sheba runs) OR won only start
This halves the field at a stroke

9/10 were 4 or 5yo (7/10 were 4yo’s)
It’s cheerio to the Cesare, the favourite

9/10 had previously won over a mile (the distance of the Lockinge)
Two of these haven’t, so we’re down to a trio already

10/10 had recorded a triple digit Topspeed figure
Phoenix Tower has not and is reluctantly scratched (reluctantly, as it may not be a fast run race, and therefore proven end-to-end speed may be irrelevant)

9/10 started at odds of 9/1 or shorter
Astronomer Royal is around a 16/1 shot, and is therefore eliminated

A single runner remains, and a very interesting one at that. Haradasun may be an unfamiliar name to you, even though he’s 7/2 second favourite. The reason? He’s having his Northern Hemisphere debut for A P O’Brien, having previously run exclusively in Australia.

Phoenix Tower is worthy of a saver, though this does represent a fair step up for Henry Cecil’s unexposed (and still unbeaten) Chester House colt (ideally bred for a mile, being out of a Zafonic mare).

So that, then, is the easy bit! (Or so time may tell)

Let’s move to the handicaps… firstly, at Thirsk, I’m a little wary of the draw this season, and will pass up the opportunity for a punt in the 14 runner 6f race. However, if I was playing, I’d want something drawn within two of either side. From the six candidates that have this location, these conditions look optimal for Valery Borzov.

Not the most inspired selection, but one that won’t be far away.

At Newmarket, I’ll be siding with TFS stalwart David Elsworth. So, watch out for Viva Vettori in the 2.25 (assuming the going has the word ’soft’ somewhere in the description); Silver Waters in the 3.00; and, Aggravation in the 4.10 (though he might prefer a mile, he won’t be far away on softish ground).

The wily Elsworth rarely leaves HQ empty-handed, and I’ll be empty-pocketed if he does tomorrow!

If you’re still alive punting-wise by Sunday, Ripon offers draw followers a couple of chances. High draws are often favoured in the sprints.

In the opening juvenile seller, well drawn (11 of 12) Rose of Coma may never win if she doesn’t here put her best hoof forward in this company.

The subsequent 2yo maiden is the only other race of note from a draw perspective, and Dispol Mulofky (14 of 14) is a reasonable each way wager. But I recommend you spend time with the family or in the garden / pub / bed as its predominantly uninspiring fare.

******

Last, but by no moans loast, timo for somo customary Friday Fun.

Tho wookond starts horo!

Matt

A quick clarification, dear reader, in the interests of fairness.

I have been emailed today by Stephen Brookes, producer and marketer of betting systems, and he has asked me to point out some factual inaccuracies in my blog post yesterday. I’m happy to do this as I didn’t realise they were inaccurate.

So: Stephen Brookes is different from Steven Lee Jones: they are not one and the same.
The product was not produced by Stephen but, rather, marketed by him. Although he would acknowledge (I hope) that he should have checked the quality of the product being marketed, it is unfair / wrong to attribute this steaming pile of proverbial to him.

Although there remain a lot of reprobates in the betting systems product vendor space, Mr Brookes cannot be considered one of them, on the evidence of a product that is not his.

However, I maintain, Lay 51 Operation is rubbish and you should not buy it, in my opinion.

Hope this clarifies.

That’s it for now.
Matt

Scumbags and scam artists, dear reader, are rife in these waters. And few more so than Mister Steven Lee Jones (aka Brookes).

But this time he’s actually gone too far. With a new product to which he doesn’t actually put his name (rather, its authored by someone called Dean Jarvis).

“Lay 51 Operation uses a little known betfair element that 99.99% of punters don’t know about”.

Believe me, its tosh. But worse than that, the whole system is predicated on a single unforgivable, inexcusable lie.

There are two rules for the system, and the example didn’t even match one of them! It was claimed to have satisfied the criterion, but a (very) simple search for the horse on racingpost.co.uk and examination of the form to locate the race, demonstrates beyond question that this was an outright lazy lie.

I try to keep an open mind, even when it comes to Jones/Brookes products, but this is just not cricket.

Charlatans who can’t be trusted. I’ll say this: if you ever buy a product from these heartless callous toads, you need your head read.

I’m done now.

And no, my horses didn’t run very well today… ;o)

Matt

No loopholes, it seems, dear reader, in Betfair. At least judging by your comments. I think we’ll leave the debate there, and move on…

Nottingham proved a good place to bet today, with the 10/11 favourite well beaten as suggested in the opener, but my selection plum last from what I thought was an ideal draw in 14. Given that the last four home were drawn 11-14 of 14, I feared the worst. However, three of them were 50/1, 66/1 and 80/1.

In the next race, I was sweet on the favourite, who obliged at a tight evens. No cream there for the average punter. My opposition of Readily was matched on course, as she was sent off 7/1 before finishing a nicely stuffed 10th.

In the last race, I was surprised to see Bold Argument start at 15/2, which I considered too big, and availed myself of (over 10 on betfair!). Any earlier reservations about the draw bias evaporated, as 17 (of 17) beat 11 and 16.

Who needs the form book?! ;o)

On to tomorrow, and the Swinton Hurdle is the big race. ‘Just’ the 24 runners line up, and its tricky to say the least.

Some trends that will help us, from the last ten runnings:

10/10 were aged 4-6yo (cheerio to six old’uns)
8/10 were officially rated between 125 and 136 (nine classy horses, whose form is more exposed, are reluctantly eliminated: this is a race for the young improving types)
9/10 were placed or better in 50% or more of their races last season, and all won (two fail on this)
9/10 had had between 4 and 9 hurdle runs, which erases another one horse here

So, I’m quietly confident that the winner is on my list of six. But not sure where…

A four year old has not won since 2000, so I will reluctantly cross out Mamlook and Lazy Darren, leaving a quartet to conjure with. These are Blue Bajan, Working Title, I Hear A Symphony, and Raise Your Heart.

One other stat is that 8/10 carried 10-06 or less to win. A strict interpretation of the stats then would cross out Blue Bajan and Working Title, but - given they carry - a pound and two pounds over this threshold, I leave them in. [I never said this was a science!]

The four are 10/1 or bigger, so back them all win only. I will be and, when Mamlook or Lazy Darren wins, I’ll be blubbing in the corner…

They race tomorrow at Ascot too, and its too hard for me. I reckon the middle of the track is likely to be the best place to be, and a 4-6yo has won the last eight runnings. No more than token selections are Al Khaleej and Fishfourcompliments, who have both got jockey bookings that imply they are expected to run well…

******

Just time for a spot of Friday Fun before I hit the pub… and this week, I’ve reverted to Family Guy to entertain us all… Its low grade, its American, and its pretty darned funny to boot! As you know, here at Nag3, I promote sensible betting with money that you can afford to lose… or this could happen! (yes, I know it repeats itself, but its almost worth watching twice!)

Good weekend one and all,
Matt

And some, dear reader, you just do not. The Chester Cup is mare of a race for me, and this year was no exception. Four ‘universal truths’ of the past decade, three remain intact. But, importantly, one of them (poor previous performance at the track) now breached.

Now, of course with hindsight, I can see that qualitatively, Bulwark’s sole previous course start was a close sixth from draw 15 in the same race in 2006. It’s all so easy now…!

And in the sprint, where I sided with the two Kings, Orchisios and Of Swords, the Sword was a non-runner, but alas for Orchisios he broke a leg and has passed to another equine plane.

Better luck was to be had at Beverley, where the sprint advice proved to be gravy.

The three 5f contests were all won by the highest drawn horse, and this is by no means a rarity. At odds of 5/2, 7/1 and 4/1, that’s pretty good.

Better yet, we got the forecast up in the handicap sprint for older horses, Namir beating Glasshoughton (Pawan was an unlucky fourth).

Keep more than an eye out for the high boxes in the sprints at Beverley, when the ground is riding good or faster.

Pretty uninspiring fare tomorrow, but at Nottingham we have another chance to play the draw. High numbers have a definite edge, so lets see what we can do with that.

In the opening maiden over six furlongs, there is a short priced (around evens) favourite coming from box 8 of 14. But she’s up against the colts here, and I’ll look elsewhere for value. Kenton Street has the plum draw in 14, and ran a creditable fourth in his only start last season.

With the aggressive Alan Munro in the saddle, he could try to make all. Look out also for the lady, Little Cee. She ran a stinker when fancied on debut, and David Elsworth is a wily trainer. If she’s not being targeted for handicaps in due course, she could run well against the chaps.

Art Princess looks to have an excellent chance of going one better than her runner up spot in the fillies juvenile maiden (2.00). Oppose Readily, who will have to be pretty good to overcome her draw, if I’m reading things correctly.

In the closing apprentice handicap (4.45), best jockey and best draw combine for Bold Argument who, while not a controversial or inspired selection, must go close in a race with a lot of dross in it.

Small stakes only: keep the powder dry for another day is my call.

******

Finally, I’ve had a couple of emails about a product that you are very likely to have heard of recently: Betfair Loophole.

Here’s my take. If there was ever a loophole on Betfair, it would be spotted in about five minutes flat and closed.

Moreover, if you had a loophole on Betfair, would you chance it being closed by broadcasting it and trying to tell people for just £55?!

I know that I wouldn’t. As much as I love you fine people, I’d be keeping firmly shtum on that one.

So, I’ve not seen the product and I can’t say for sure that its guff. But the premise is most certainly preposterous!

[Incidentally, if you've purchased the aforementioned product, do please leave a comment with your experiences to date... just click the 'comments' link beneath this post.]

That’s all folks!
Matt

Back in the saddle, dear reader, after a few days away from it all in sunny Dorset. And what a few days they were!

The Guineas preview may not have been nearly as amusing as last year’s Fudd-story, but it was more lucrative for sure.

From a quartet on the shortlist in each of the boys and girls races, we found the forecast in each. In fairness, though I tipped up Henrythenavigator, the 11/1 winner of the colts’ race, I ducked Natagora in the fillies’ equivalent, as she was a shorter price than many of the recent winners. I think she is a very good fast lass, in the mould of Attraction, Mark Johnston’s flyer who led from trap to line in 2004.

As for Henry, well the front two came clear (he pipped New Approach), and both look above average to my relatively untutored eye (I’m a stats man, rather than a seasoned interpreter of collateral form). That connections believe the winner will improve significantly for the run marks our Henry down as a miler to follow.

And a mile is the trip for this one: he’ll not stay the Derby trip, despite the curious noises coming from the O’Brien camp. Save your money for something else of theirs (Kingdom of Naples).

A quick update on TFS, as always. My regular reader (hello mum!) will know that I am very fond of the punter’s motto:

After a good run expect a bad run; after a bad run expect a good run.

And so it was that after a luckless fortnight or so, once Ephorus broke the spell, so the winners came again. And how!

As one TFS subscriber wrote,

“As you know i’ve emailed you a fair bit since joining. sorry . I probably joined at a really iffy time , loser after loser but kept the faith and am well happy with proponent, slugger o toole, redolent and just jimmy. Now i’m playing with their money which is a far healthier position. Also as i’m usually out have been playing at betfair sp, which seems to be going really well Heres to the future.“

Since Ephorus won at 6/1 for us last Wednesday, we’ve cheered home winners at (in chronological order): 13/8, 4/1, 11/2, 8/1, 11/1, and today’s only runner, the 7/1 shot Just Jimmy.

In fact, the other potential qualifier, who failed on price as a 16/1 shot (we only bet 14/1 or shorter), finished 2nd beaten a short head.

The TFS guide has been withdrawn from sale, as I said it would, due to some eejits who choose to spoil things for others by giving away my copyright for free (since addressed both logistically and legally, I’m pleased to report).

You can get TFS by email subscription from the page, www.trainerflatstats.com, but we’re probably about to head for another losing run… ;o)

Results to date are here: www.trainerflatstats.com/TFS2008results.html

(over £500 up to £20 stakes since the start of the season…)

******

Although the jumps season has now finished, there is still a fair bit of Summer jumping on the screens. And so it was that I was lapsing my discipline tonight and wagering from race to race (naughty boy!).

In the last at Exeter, I saw the familiar (to me at least, and probably to some of you) name of Felix de Giles on the favourite. The horse had form, though had been second three of his last five starts (normally alarm bells ring in these cases).

But the jockey is class, and this was a race for conditional jockeys (i.e. apprentices).

So it was that coming to the last, de Giles’ mount was trying to add to his silver medal collection, but the savvy Felix was having none of it, kidding and cajoling the nag to the front where it mattered.

I tell you this because I encourage you to keep an eye out for this boy. Better judges than me think he’s going to be top drawer. His guv’nor is none other than Nicky Henderson, who doesn’t normally trouble himself with mediocrity.

He’s a jock on his way to the top…

It’s draw bias nirvana tomorrow, as not one but two of the strongest stall position influences feature in a few hours of favoured trap heaven! Chester (low) and Beverley (high) are tough to top when it comes to influential starting positions, which are obviously accentuated the shorter the trip.

At Chester first, and ignoring the opening juvenile event (I’d go for Doncaster Rover if pressed), the lowest drawn four all look to have a squeak. At the odds, I like King Orchisios (though he’s the likely favourite) and King Of Swords. The other two with low draws are Paul Green and Invincible Force.

But I’ll be having a small perm exacta (these four to be first or second in any order) as well.

Over at Beverley, the 2.30 presents Namir with a great opportunity to optimise his rail draw in the 11 box. He has course and distance ‘previous’, and will be on the premises for sure.

Again, the perm exacta comes to hand, and I’ll play Namir with Glasshoughton and the redoubtable Pawan (ridden, and trained, by the redoubtable Ann Stokell).

Blue Jack has the rail in the 4.45, another sprint, and is worth a second glance, but perhaps of most interest - numerically at least - is the penultimate race, a seven furlong sprint.

Sixteen runners contest, and obviously we’re going high. Princess Maria, having had three runs in maidens, now contests a weakish handicap for the first time, and she has the rail berth in 16. Interestingly enough, she is flanked in boxes 15 and 14 by Lu’s Woman and Piverina, both of whom are also having their handicap debuts, following three runs in maidens.

Given that there is only one other runner in the entire field to which this comment applies and, furthermore, that the handlers of this tricky trio are Richard Fahey, Mick Easterby and David Barron respectively, I’ll look no further for my wagers.

I expect all three to improve markedly on ostensible form demonstrated to date, and one will pick up the prize. No idea which though. I’ll go win only on all three, and perm them for the forecast (incidentally, four permed is 12 bets and three permed is six bets, if that helps).

Finally on tomorrow’s racing, it’s back to Chester for a preview of the Chester Cup, an apparently insoluble handicap over two and a quarter miles.

Some trends from the last ten years to potentially assist in the winner finding process (though my record in the race is terrible):

1. 10/10 aged 4 to 7 (ciao ciao to 4 horses, including last year’s winner, Greenwich Meantime)
2. 10/10 were having their seasonal debut or had just one run prior to winning here (Shipmaster sets sail)
3. 10/10 had won over 2 miles or more, either on flat or over jumps (another three are scratched)
4. 10/10 were having their first look at Chester OR had been placed at least once here before (it’s cheery-bye to yet four more)

These four universal truths of the last decade pare the 17 runner field down to a more manageable five. Alas, thereafter, it gets more difficult and we still have the joint favourites in that quintet.

I happen to believe that in a big field end to end gallop, low drawn horses are at a distinct advantage, even over this marathon trip. Even though ‘only’ seven of the last ten winners were drawn in single figures, closer inspection of the other three shows that last year (where the first three home had double digit draws) they went lightning fast and broke the course record; in 2005, six of the last seven home were drawn double figured; and in 1999, Rainbow High also set a then course record.

So, barring track records, I expect
a horse drawn one to nine to win. From our remaining five, it’s au revoir to the two classy jumps horses Fair Along and Sentry Duty, which leaves the three at the bottom of the handicap, Highland Legacy, Missoula, and Double Banded.

Missoula was given a freshener over hurdles a couple of months ago, and Messrs Bell and Dunlop Senior have employed Jamie Spencer and Kerrin McEvoy respectively for the 4yo’s.

I can’t split these three, so will split my stake across them 40/40/20 on Highland, Double and Missoula respectively.

Like I say, my luck in this race is shocking. But it has to change some time… Doesn’t it?!

Matt

It’s Guineas weekend, dear reader, and it reminds me of one of my favourite posts since I started doing, this ‘ere blog. Last year, I previewed the 2,000 Guineas in the style of Elmer Fudd, the syntactically challenged wabbit hunter in Bugs Bunny.

The tip was wubbish, the post hilawious. See it here…

On to this year’s race, and it looks pretty straightforward (as so many races do on paper, prior to the nasty but necessary elements of turf, horseflesh and human interaction entering the equation).

The stats over the last ten years show some reasonably strong traits:

10/10 won at least once at 2
9/10 were either having their 3yo debut, OR had won their only 3yo start
The last winners had all placed or better in a Group race at 2
9/10 were 11/1 or shorter on the day (exception was last year’s winner)

Applying these four stats and, after stat one, we lose one rag. After stat two, we lose four. Stat three boots out six of the remaining ten.

The four left standing are New Approach, Ibn Khaldun, Henrythenavigator, and Stimulation.

The last named may be too big a price, which leaves us the previous three.

It’s difficult to pick between them, but 50% of the last ten winners (yes, five of them!) were Irish trained (from far fewer runners), as New Approach and Henryetc. are.

To counter that, only one of the last ten runnings has gone to the favourite (George Washington in 2006). So I’d be a little wary of lumping on the New Approach at 6/4 or thereabouts, despite apparently bombproof form.

The thing with taking so many horses first time out, is a hell of a lot needs to be taken on trust. And trusting in dumb animals at short prices may not be the way to the counting house. So, on value grounds only, I will split my stake 40/40/20 on Ibn, Henry, and Stimulation (or 50/50 if the latter drifts on the day).

When New Approach wins, I’ll be thrilled of course… ahem.

Moving on to the ladies on Sunday, and - although I’m not really a fan of adding the whimsies of the fairer sex to the aforementioned imponderables of first time outer’s (with apologies to any unwhimsical fillies reading this!) - there remain some strong patterns here too.

Over the last decade, the stats say this:

10/10 won at 2
9/10 were either having their 3yo debut, OR had won their only 3yo start
9/10 were placed or better in Group class at 2
10/10 were 14/1 or shorter

Interestingly, the point about placing or better in Group races as a juvenile strikes out both Infallible and Muthabara, who may just not have enough class for this.

The quartet who make the shortlist are Kitty Matcham, Natagora, Spacious and Laureldean Gale.

I think it may be misleading to say that 8/10 were British trained, because probably 80% of runners were British too!

Natagora, if she stays, may well win, but no less than six of the last ten winners were 10/1-14/1. I know many of you will be yelling at your pc’s, “but the horse doesn’t know what price she is!”, and you may be right.

I happen to think that on one of the most studied races of the season, the market will not be too far away from reality.

On that debatably tenuous basis, I’ll cut my shortlist to Kitty Matcham and Laureldean Gale (probable back to lay, given that Dettori rides, currently 25 on betfair…), and hope for some luck with the lay-deez…

Good luck with your fancies at Newmarket.

A note about Thirsk tomorrow from a draw perspective: if it rains between now and then in Yorkshire, and it surely will, then look to the low boxes in the big field sprint at 4.55. Each way plays on Charles Parnell, Tartatartufata, and Jilly Why may prove lucrative: they’re drawn 1, 2 and 3 and they’ve all won on good to soft or softer.

Of course, if I’m wrong about the draw, we’ll all have done six units!

Finally, now that the doors are shut for TTS (end of season) and TFS (window still open for subscription only), time for a spot of Friday Fun. And, this week, I have an amusing little music quiz for you.

[TFS today: five run so far, 2nd 9/4, 1st 13/8, 3rd 4/1, forecast 4/1 and 10/1 (1st and 2nd): exacta £70.00 to a £1]

Guess the song from the statistical representation:

Toodlepip!

Matt