Humour, dear reader, is as personal as one’s dress sense. But I think this little list is the comedic equivalent of a little black dress: ubiquitously amusing I’ll venture… (Apologies if I’m wrong, and you find this offensive / not funny)

p.s. for the PC among you (I can’t believe there are any after all this time!), it was sent to me by a female friend / colleague…

DICTIONARY FOR WOMEN’S PERSONAL ADS
40-ish…………………………49
Adventurous…………………Slept with all your friends
Athletic……………………….No boobs
Average looking……………..Ugly
Beautiful………………………Pathological liar
Contagious Smile…………….Does a lot of pills
Emotionally secure…………..On medication
Feminist……………………….Fat
Free spirit……………………..Junkie
Friendship first……………….Former slut
Fun…………………………….Annoying
Gentle…………………………Dull
New Age………………………Body hair in the wrong places
Open-minded…………………Desperate
Outgoing………………………Loud and Embarrassing
Passionate……………………Sloppy drunk
Poet……………………………Depressive
Professional…………………..Bitch
Romantic………………………Frigid
Voluptuous……………………Very Fat
Large frame…………………..Hugely Fat
Wants Soul mate…………….Stalker
Widow…………………………Murderer

WOMEN’S ENGLISH
1. Yes = No
2. No = Yes
3. Maybe = No
4. We need = I want
5. I am sorry = you’ll be sorry
6. We need to talk = you’re in trouble
7. Sure, go ahead = you better not
8. Do what you want = you will pay for this later
9. I am not upset = of course I am upset, you moron!
10. You’re very attentive tonight = is sex all you ever think about?

MEN’S ENGLISH
1. I am hungry = I am hungry
2. I am sleepy = I am sleepy
3. I am tired = I am tired
4. Nice dress = Nice cleavage!
5. I love you = let’s have sex now
6. I am bored = Do you want to have sex?
7. May I have this dance? = I’d like to have sex with you
8. Can I call you sometime? = I’d like to have sex with you
9. Do you want to go to a movie? = I’d like to have sex with you
10. Can I take you out to dinner? = I’d like to have sex with you
11. Those shoes don’t go with that outfit = I’m gay

And finally…..
A recent scientific study found that women find different male faces attractive depending on where they are in their menstrual cycle.
For example, when a woman is ovulating she will prefer a man with rugged, masculine features.
However when she is menstruating, she prefers a man doused in petrol and set on fire, with scissors stuck in his eye and a cricket stump shoved up his backside.

Dynamite, dear reader, is a deadly substance, and a truly graphic word used to ‘explode’ sales.

If you’ll forgive that awful pun, I’ll share with you some insights into the latest product offering from the seemingly never-ending Steven Lee Jones conveyor belt.

It seems Mr Jones has got hold of some software similar to that which I use to research TrainerFlatStats (TFS) but, instead of painstakingly number crunch through literally hundreds of trainer patterns at each track, he has decided to run a broad search query to identify some - apparently - profitable trends…

But what Jones has produced is to me a classic example of ‘back-fitting’ the data. There is no obvious reason to select some courses and not others.

Whereas in TFS, it is obvious that certain trainers target certain races that suit the way they train, and turn a decent profit as a result, with Betfair Dynamite, the ’system’ criteria are somewhat arbitrary in my opinion.

For instance, why he’s selected the courses he has, rather than all courses, can only be because the results for the other tracks are not so lucrative. In fact, they’d lose money.

The ’system’, such as it is, consists of a 26 page guide. TrainerFlatStats runs to 66 pages. Within Betfair Dynamite’s 26 flimsy pages, you’ll find thirteen pages of the usual filler (how decimal odds work, how to use betfair); the ’system’ itself spread over four pages; and the rest containing examples on how to apply the rules. TFS has six pages of ‘How To’, and sixty pages of content. Four pages of content vs sixty pages of content… Hmm…

Despite the nasty feeling I had about Betfair Dynamite, I thought I’d check out the results using my own database. Now there are a couple of differences between the ’system’ criteria stipulated in Betfair Dynamite and the flexibility of my tool (oo-er missus!).

These are as follows, so you can make up your own mind about how material they’d be overall:

1. Betfair Dynamite says, no bet if the horse ran in the last two days. My database can only cater for no bet if the horse ran in the last three days (!)

2. Betfair Dynamite says only back clear favourites. My database cannot split between clear and joint favourites. (This may be slightly material in my opinion)

So how did the results come out. Firstly, I found that the ’system’ did actually make a (small) profit over the last two seasons:

But if you look at the last five seasons, you see the following:

That’s a level stakes LOSS of £21,642 to Jones’ recommended £100 stakes. Unsurprisingly, Jones uses the start of the 2007 season for his betting bank calculations. TFS is based on performance over FIVE years.

Two things to say in the interests of fairness at this point:

a) The two criteria that I cannot exactly replicate may have an impact on the bottom line, so Betfair Dynamite may have performed slightly better than my numbers indicate. It may also have performed slightly worse. But I expect that the differential would be minimal.

b) Trends do change over time (as in TFS), so it may be that going forwards the positive pattern is repeated. Maybe.

For me though, I feel that this is a lazy product, all about the marketing over substance. It’s something I could have thrown together in an afternoon and, if I had (which I wouldn’t because of the dodgy statistical approach), it would be on my ‘free systems‘ page.

[STOP PRESS: JONES IS USING ADRIAN MASSEY'S FREE SERVICE. The results for the 'system' in 2006, the only other year for which there is data, amounted to a loss of £5,317 to £100 stakes.]

If you’re tempted to spend $77 on this, then I seriously recommend you spend $20 (about a tenner) more on a properly researched and proven product.

On the subject of TrainerFlatStats, there have been four qualifiers since I last wrote to you:

Oasis Wind was 3rd at 8/11

Wigwam Willie was 3rd at 17/2
Partners In Jazz was 9th at 11/2
Skhilling Spirit was 10th at 8/1

Note that the last named three, bizarrely, all ran in the same race, and were drawn 3, 5 and 8 out of 14. TFS states regarding the draw at Newcastle, “High drawn do best in bigger fields”.

The winner was drawn 15 (out of 14, there was one non-runner); the runner up was drawn 14; Wigwam did very well to get third from stall 8.

Partners In Jazz and Skhilling Spirit were drawn 5 and 3 respectively and had little chance of overcoming their positional misfortune.

You’ve missed very little of the action since the start of the turf season, but things hot up this week from Wednesday, so if you haven’t already availed yourself of a copy of TFS, have a look now.

A quick reflection on the Grand National and, despite my pessimism about the stats this year, they were all true again and Comply Or Die (recommended here at 12/1) did us another turn, after Silver Birch at 33/1 last season.

I really do look forward to the race every year, as these trends are fantastically strong and based, unlike Betfair Dynamite, on rock solid logic and decades of evidence.

I’ll be back in the next couple of days with the fifth of my six trainers to follow. [Incidentally, you may have noticed that Tom Tate, one of our flat trainers to follow (and an excellent trainer generally in my opinion) won the Aintree Bumper - a flat race for jumpers! - with 14/1 shot Honest John]

Until then…
Matt

Having done it in, dear reader, today I am seeking my creature comforts once more (Guinness predominantly and my comfy sofa)… though I did back the winner in the last at 40, because Carole is my girlfriend’s name… (would have won more if the 2nd or 3rd won, both Alan King’s!)

I have also finalised my Aintree set for tomorrow’s National, not that I am especially confident, especially after the reverses of the last two days…

Finally, you’ll have noticed a link at the top of this post wantonly hawking my flat statistics guide, TrainerFlatStats. There’s a few potential qualifiers at Newcastle tomorrow.

Incidentally, on the subject of TrainerFlatStats, thanks to Kev for another, simpler way of identifying the sex of runners.

1. Go to the race meeting of choice at www.racingpost.co.uk
2. Click the ‘Colours’ box at the top of the page (under ‘View’)
3. The sex is now displayed

So, in this - rather lame - example, all four runners are g(eldings).

Two other clarifications:

1. When the guide refers to, for instance, Class 4 or lower, this means Race Class 4, 5, 6 or 7. Class 4 or higher is therefore obviously Race Class 4, 3, 2 or 1.

2. Where there are multiple qualifiers in a race (as there will likely be tomorrow), the approach is level stakes on all qualifiers.

Easy as that!

To the Grand National…

The final qualifying shortlist (which is not that short) is:

McKelvey
Point Barrow
Baily Breeze
Naunton Brook
Comply Or Die
Idle Talk
Dun Doire

Our (Magnificent?) Seven.

If you don’t want to bet seven, with a good chance that you still won’t back the winner, then I would narrow them down by looking for the horses that race handily.

These are:

McKelvey
Point Barrow (sometimes, fell at the 1st last year!)
Baily Breeze (guaranteed to be front rank)
Naunton Brook (went ok til pulled up last year, and a possible doubtful stayer)
Comply Or Die (has done his winning when leading or prominent)
Idle Talk (sloppy jumper, with ‘alphabet soup’ form figures, but got a long way last year)

So basically, Dun Doire is a hold up horse and the rest like to race prominently. Please note that although they like to race prominently, there is inevitably a mad melee over the first two or three fences before the rhythm of the race settles down.

Lots of horses don’t get their own way and sulk as a consequence.

If pressed for my fancies from the list, I’d side with Comply Or Die and Point Barrow. But I seem to be on half the field!

Before I close, one last piece of advice:

Your horse is far more likely to fall or pull up or be brought down or refuse or unseat its jockey than it is to finish 2nd, 3rd or 4th. So, if you want to bet each way, find two horses and back them both to win.

[And please, please, please, don't cry to me when they finish 2nd and 3rd!!!]

Best of luck with your fancies.

Now, as promised, those creature comforts:

Happy Friday!
Matt

Yesterday was tough, dear reader, for punters. Christy Beamish was a bright spot from a most unlikely source - the sh-amateur riders’ hunter chase. In fairness, Julen Guerriero is about as good an amateur as you’ll find in these races, so it was not that much of a surprise.

Elsewhere, defeats for Inglis Drever (as predicted here) and Kauto Star (as not predicted here) were followed by Franchoek (as predicted here).

The 50/1 winner in the last race actually aligned to the trends I’d outlined except the odds which were even longer. Well done to Sue Smith, who has had a fantastic month or so.

To today, and it doesn’t get any easier!

Again, I am indebted to Weatherbys excellent analysis for most of this info (www.weatherbys.co.uk)

2.00 24 from 26 winners had won at least twice. 16 of last 17 winners had won over at least 3m.
17 from 19 winners were 7 or younger. This leaves Albertas Run and Battle Cry. Back them both.

2.35 Must have won at least twice and had at least four runs over hurdles. 10 from the last 14 winners had already recorded a victory over the trip of three miles.

Of the four that fit the bill, our Cheltenham friend Nenuphar Collonges will probably be outpaced here (he needed all of the trip at Chelt); Tazbar has every chance but is plenty short enough; Gone To Lunch may just be short of top class form; so I’ll take a chance with course and distance winner Souffleur, who looks a cracking each way wager.

3.10 Forget about having a bet and instead enjoy the best chaser currently in training. Bar a fall, it would be absent minded to bet against Master Minded.

3.45 Ah, the Topham. Almost as pleasurable a race as the National to watch - I love this race. But, unlike the National, I can’t remember ever having backed the winner! That won’t stop me trying though…

8-10yo’s only; less than 11 stone; prominent racers have the edge (like in the National itself); previous form over the specialist fences.

From quite a few possibles, I like Dunbrody Millar (who I’d have backed for the National if he’d made the cut), and Pak Jack, who never runs a bad race here (until today?!).

4.20 We’ll go with a 5yo (won last five runnings) in the first four in the betting (13 of last 17), so that actually leaves us with no bet! In an open looking race, I’ll try a VERY SMALL each way wager on Frank Crow at 300/1 (510 on betfair!)

4.55 Very tough race. Try ‘The Misters’, Mr Strachan and Mister Top Notch.

5.30 Alan King each way: Call Me A Legend, Over Sixty, and Divali Princess. In the three runnings of this race, he’s had a winner and two 2nd places.

Good luck!
Matt

p.s. Get a FREE Timeform racecard for tomorrow here.

Part four, dear reader, in a series of six trainers to follow this flat season. And we are talking top drawer trainers here. Not any old Tom, Dick or Harry makes this super sextet.

In fact, there aren’t any Dicks or Harry’s here. But there is a Tom. Tom Dascombe to be precise. And he may just be the hottest trainer in the ranks right now…

Having been a journeyman jockey (about seventh choice jockey at Martin Pipe’s stable), Tom learnt his business from some of the best in the game.

Quite aside from what he was taught by Pipe, which must have been stacks given that the ‘Wellington Wizard’ (as Pipe was known) was a mile ahead of his time, and most other trainers are still playing catch up with his methods.

Dascombe then spent three years as assistant trainer to a fellow I hold in the highest regards (and you may not have heard of), Ralph Beckett.

Finally, and perhaps most significantly of all, TD was lucky enough to spend two years learning from one of the best trainers (if not the best) on the planet, South African Mike de Kock.

Taking this collective wisdom and applying it to his first bunch of nags in 2006, he registered 12 winners from just 16 horses. In 2007, he banged in 26.

This season has started off staggeringly, with Dascombe having recorded nine winners from just 22 runners, a strike rate of 41%.

Actually, scratch that. Because his sole runner today, Desert Dreamer, won the 6.50 at Kempton tonight at 15/8.

So he’s now 10 from 23 for a 43.4% strike rate!

The word is out on Tom, but he’s going to hit the back of the net many more times this season, and you should look out for EVERYTHING he runs!

I’m so impressed that I’m seriously considering getting a syndicate horse with him. But more on that in a few weeks time…

Moving on, and I need to make a clarification regarding TrainerFlatStats, regarding the selection process for qualifiers.

It seems that the boy horse / girl horse thing is causing one or two confusions. Many users have written to me thanking me for winners yesterday at 9/2 and today at 5/1. But the reality is that, although their trainers were the right ones, and they were under 14/1, both were fillies (female horses) and therefore did not qualify.

[There were only two qualifiers yesterday, one winning at 3/1, and no qualifiers today.]

So…. a quick lesson on establishing the sex of the qualifier.

1. Check the race at www.racingpost.co.uk for a qualifier
2. If you see a horse that matches the criteria, click the horse name
3. You will see this screen (click to enlarge)

4. To the right of the name, look by the age (i.e. 7-y-o), birth date and colour, for a letter.
5. If it is c(olt), g(elding) or h(orse), you have a bet.
6. If it is f(illy), or m(are) it is NO BET.

So, no runners today and therefore no winners; one winner yesterday (3/1) and not two from two runners; and one qualifier tomorrow at Leicester.

Aintree Thursday Preview

A few words on Aintree’s card tomorrow, where equine superstars Kauto Star and Inglis Drever will be going to the well once more - among many others.

The trends are not nearly as strong at Aintree as at Cheltenham, simply because most horses are aimed at the West Country March meeting, not the Liverpool April meeting, and often horses are either ‘over the top’ or just not in peak form.

No matter: let’s have a quick squint anyway. (I’m indebted to Weatherby’s for this information, it is not my research)…

2.00 All four winners have been 1st or 2nd at the meeting before is interesting, but Inglis Drever is only 1 from 4 at the track (and that back in 2003!). Oppose the Drever.

I’ll be preying for a return to form for Chief Dan George, who will sew up my local (350 odd entry) ten to follow competition if he wins. He won here last year, so clearly likes the place.

2.35 Kauto Star must surely win, but he’s not a punting price. Monet’s Garden is respected even though I detest his trainer…

3.10 15 of the last 18 winners won more than once prior to coming here, so that leaves just Binocular and Celestial Halo. Binocular finished 2nd in a race where the vast majority of runners were older (he was getting an allowance) and I have a suspicion that the form is stronger. It’s the Bin for me.

3.45 Oh boy… here we go again, those mad farmer fools faffing and flapping and flailing and failing and falling and f&%$ing up our flacefots. Ok, got that off my chest… Who might win? Who really cares… (usual apologies to any readers who may also be members of the Counryside Alliance).

Key Stats:
- 14 from last 15 winners were in first four in the betting
- Irish only won once from last 25 years
- Classy 2m4f-3m former handicap chasers have won the last eight runnings of the race

Christy Beamish is as strong a fancy as you can have in a race like this, with Thisthatantother to chase him home.

4.20 Novices have triumphed in 5 from the past 6 renewals of this race, so we’ll go with them. Five out of six carried 11 stone or less to victory. I’ll look to Leslingtaylor (beat Tidal Bay earlier in the season!) and Desert Quest.

4.55 7/4 about Franchoek who, as a 4yo, must defy the 0 wins from 26 runs stat! Not for me. 5 and 6 yo’s have won the last ten runnings. Group Captain for me, because I love Alan King, but Whiteoak is respected.

5.30 If you need to get out on this race, good luck. Let’s have a quick peek anyway… Look for a horse who has already won this season (removes 8 from 22).

Ten of the last 19 winners missed Cheltenham, so - tenuous as this is - we’ll go with it. Down to eleven. 8 from last ten winners carried 11 stone or less. Still leaves us with nine.

Seven of last eight were 10/1 to 25/1, so I’ll go (very tentatively) with Gustavo.

To be honest, I’ll be keeping my powder mostly dry at Aintree tomorrow for the (hopefully) stronger trends on Friday and Saturday.

Good luck to you, and don’t forget to check out Tom Dascombe and TrainerFlatStats!

Matt