It feels, dear reader, very much like the last day of school today. You see, the 30th April is the end of the TrainerTrackStats (TTS) season.

TTS runs, as many of you know, from beginning of September to end of April. And, as many of you also know, it’s been nicely lining your pockets (and mine!) during this time.

The full results sheet is now up on the site here. This was the second season that I have published my research, and I’m somewhat proud of the fact that its also the second season that TTS followers have made a healthy return. For those of you with an appetite for such things, the 2006/7 seasonal results are here.

The tale of the tape is that in 2006/7, TTS made just over 60 points profit to betfair odds (£1,207 to £20 stakes).

In the season just finished, we made a fantastic 96.8 points profit to betfair odds (or £1,936 to £20 stakes).

If you think these results are anything less than impressive, then you are either VERY new to horse racing and believe there is an alchemy solution somewhere, or you are awaiting a lift in the blue lighted ice cream van to the nut house… ;o)

I charged the princely fee of £57 in the first season and, based on the success, perversely only £37 in the second season. Why? Because I want the little guy to get closer to being in front.

The results of yesterday’s survey - so far, 408 have replied (thanks a million: I’ve been amazed at the response rate!) - are that 66% of respondents are losing or breaking even in their betting overall.

And also, interestingly, 66% of you use betfair or another betting exchange to bet most often. (For the other third of you, do you know you’re losing money by not using betfair?! Click the link on the left of the page, get £25 for depositing a tenner, and get 20% better odds the next time you place a bet!!)

My point is that two thirds of you are taking advantage of betfair AND STILL DOING NO BETTER THAN BREAKING EVEN!

Which means that before betfair, I can include the 31% (this includes me!) who said they are winning a bit, and confidently state that 97% of us were doing no better than breaking even.

So, here it is: rule number one. If you want to stand any chance of winning at betting, open a betfair account NOW. Better still, do it through my link on the left hand side, and we’ll both get a thank you from betfair (you £25, me £20). Happy days :o)

So, that places into context, what a good result it is to make 60 or 100 points from a rigid statistical approach to betting, using a tool such as TTS.

TrainerFlatStats (now all but off the market, except for subscription only) has had a mercurial season to date, with a flying start quickly countered by a week in the doldrums. The only TFS qualifier today won at 6/1, which was a welcome riposte to what had gone before, and illustrates that it only takes one winner to make a big difference on the monthly points tally. TFS is marginally in front for the fledgling season.

Ok, what else did I learn from the survey?

A whopping 95.5% of you bet a few times a week up to every day. Wow!

Average stake is about five pounds, with a few big players out there. 50p or £50 punter: you’re all equally welcome here. Nag3 has no hierarchy (except that I’m the one with the virtual pen!).

[Incidentally, for those of you who work in an office environment, here's my number one tip for meetings. If you want to get your point across, make sure you are the scribe. No matter what is said in the meeting, if you are the minute taker you have a degree of freedom to 'interpret' / 'massage' what others have said so that their words align merrily with your tune... Apologies if that's slightly off topic!]

A really interesting point that came out from the survey results is that less than 10% of you bet most often at a high street bookie. Now we probably all pop in from time to time, but its amazing to think that in the ten years or so that the internet has been truly mainstream, 90% of us now prefer to wager online. Wow again!

And only 5% of you don’t have an online betting account of some description. That’s a third wow!

A further point that surprised me - pleasantly - about the survey results is that only 6.6% of you didn’t think it was possibly to make money consistently from betting.

One sixth of you weren’t sure, and an excellent optimistic 77.2% of you believe that it is possible to make consistent money betting. That’s bloody marvellous, guys and girls! Because that’s what we’re about here, and we don’t want the nay-sayers and profits of doom discolouring our bright skies.

If you’re one of the ‘don’t know’ camp, then I hope that you will be in the ‘yes’ camp after a time with Nag3. :o)

You can see all of the survey responses (less people’s email addresses of course!) here.

Incidentally, one of the things you can’t see in the attached is the comments about the one thing that would make you a better bettor. An overwhelming majority of you said that DISCIPLINE was the key that you were missing.

I tend to agree with you (having layed Bankable this afternoon, even though I thought it would probably win), and I’ll be doing some stuff on how to train yourself to be better disciplined in the coming weeks.

The five lucky winners of TFS guides this time are:

brenmarbay
ptchsmith
geoffstraw
m45adams
clifjenkinson

Well done to you guys, and - again - thanks a lot to everyone who shared their views. It’s proved truly instructive once again.

Dear reader has been a ubiquitous refrain almost since day one on this ‘ere little blog. And now, I’m delighted to announce, I’ve gone multimedia, and introduced hitherto unheard of modern technologies, in the form of audio and… video!

I’ve invested in a rather splendid new toy called Visual Studio that allows me to ‘record’ my PC screen. This means I can show you all sorts of clever tricks and tips and favourite sites in the future.

It should be said at this point that I’m still learning how to use it, as will become evident from the first clip below. And the fact that I’m nursing a horrendous cold and sound like the bloke from the Tunes advert (anyone else remember ’secodd class return to dottigham please’?!) should not detract from my unbridled pride at being able to personally introduce you to my little virtual ‘pied a terre’…

See my video here…

Please let me know what you make of it: remember, it’s your feedback that’s contributed to such quantum leaps in technology and service offering! ;o)

Elsewhere, and no less than TWO of my ten to follow are running tomorrow night at Bath. Which is curious as one of the other two to run from my ten also ran (and won) at Bath last week.

Brexca and Naughty Thoughts are the two, and they are a good bit shorter in the betting than we might have hoped. So let’s see how they fare…

That’s all for today.

Happy Monday!
Matt

Sometimes, dear reader, a reasoned process of elimination can distill a fiendishly difficult looking handicap chase into a somewhat more soluble puzzle. A case in point is the Grand National, where the sensible application of statistics and trends creates a shortlist that usually contains the winner.

Alas, for the big race at Sandown today, this is not the case. Despite there being some solid trends, the process of elimination whittles the runners down to a shortlist of… none!

So, no horse can win the bet365 Gold Cup? Well, this is obviously preposterous, so let’s have a look and see which trend may flex to allow us to locate the winner.

A whistlestop tour of the key stats for the past ten winners are thus:

10/10 were officially rated between 129 and 152 (and nine of them between 129 and 145)
8/10 carried 10-10 or less
8/10 were aged 7, 8 or 9
9/10 ran 5-9 times that season before the race
7/10 had already won that season
8/10 had run in the last month (including the last seven winners)
8/10 placed in first 3 last time out OR unseated in the Grand National

The favourite, Iris de Balme, looks to have a good chance of emulating Hot Weld who last year won the Scottish Grand National the week before winning this race, and although I was going to strike through him for being rated only 117, I noticed that he is due to go up 27 pounds in future for his win last week.

This would put him on 144, within the official rating bracket of all of the last ten winners. He carries 10-00 (09-07 actually if his jockey can make the weight: its a long time since I was 9 and a half stone!); he’s an 8yo with 5 runs to date this season; he has won twice already this term (and placed two more times); and he ran and won in the last month.

So… Iris de Balme is an unoriginal selection, but the only one who ticks all the boxes.

At around 6/1 on betfair (and 6/4 a place) I think there are many worse wagers today.

The previous race at 2.45, bet365 Celebration Chase, is clearly suffering from the season’s elongated tail, with all the good horses having run at Punchestown or been put away for the season.

The fact is that the last five winners of this race (it’s only been run seven times) had competed last time out in either the Grade 1 Champion Chase at Cheltenham or the Grade 1 Melling Chase at Aintree.

None of the 11 League One contenders can claim to be Championship (let along Premier League) material.

This is a swerve race, but if you must play, note the following:

6/7 were 8-10 years old
6/7 Officially rated 161+
5/7 had 5 or 6 runs prior to winning that season
There were NO last time out winners (but bear in mind all winners had run in much better races than these hairy ponies)

Monet’s Garden (only one rated above 160) probably has most going for him, but I won’t be wagering on this race.

Over at Ripon, I reckon the draw favours high boxes, though those closest to the far rail (i.e. drawn low and able to get the rail position) have chances too.

Princess Ellis may try to make all in the 3.05, from the top stall. But I reckon she’ll be pegged back, and I’ll be taking Highland Warrior to do the pegging. I’ll also be having a small interest on the well drawn Steelcut and Sandwith, both of whom are tempting each way.

The top weight, Judge N’Jury, is trained by our man, R A Harris, and he may be best of the low drawn runners.

Good luck wherever you’re playing today…
Matt

According to a recent MORI poll, dear reader, eight out of ten cat owners (who expressed a preference) said their cats preferred Whiskers.

Surveys can be quite interesting things. I am truly surprised at your feedback, which is both flattering and instructive.

I’d like to share some of the details with you, if I may.

400 of you (well, 399 as I write) were kind enough to respond, the first 100 of you qualifying for the prize draw (winners below)…

1. How long have you been visiting Nag3?
		Response Percent	Response Count
Less than 1 month		36.3%	145
1 to 3 months		26.6%	106
3 to 6 months		10.3%	41
More than 6 months		26.8%	107
	answered question		399
	skipped question		0

2. Which of these parts of Nag3 have you visited? (Select all that apply)
		Response Percent	Response Count
Home page		86.0%	343
Blog		91.5%	365
Free Systems		78.9%	315
Premium Systems		49.1%	196
Search		25.8%	103
Contact Us		17.0%	68
	answered question		399
	skipped question		0

3. What would you like to see more of on the blog?
		Response Percent	Response Count
Racing System Reviews		77.9%	311
Race Previews		54.9%	219
Tips		65.4%	261
Free Systems		41.9%	167
My Irreverent (Irrelevant?!) Ramblings		49.1%	196

4. What would you like to see less of on the blog?
		Response Percent	Response Count
Racing System Reviews		15.8%	63
My Irreverent (Irrelevant?!) Ramblings		19.0%	76
Tips		11.8%	47
Free Systems		34.3%	137
Race Previews		25.6%	102
			="answ">

5. What do you like most about Nag3?
		Response Percent	Response Count
Free Systems		8.0%	32
System Reviews		38.1%	152
The Blog		53.9%	215

6. What do you like least about Nag3?
		Response Percent	Response Count
Free Systems		11.8%	47
System Reviews		5.5%	22
The Blog		3.5%	14
I Love It All Matt!		79.2%	316

7. Going slightly off track for a moment, which of the following would you be interested in reading about?
		Response Percent	Response Count
Nothing Else		23.6%	94
Business Opportunities		36.8%	147
Share / Forex Investing		33.3%	133
Bookmaker Offers		36.1%	144
	answered question		399
	skipped question		0

Sincerely, thanks a million for this feedback, which will now go to shape the future of how Nag3 looks. I want it to give you what you want it to give you… if that makes sense!

By the way, one thing that really surprised me was that a whopping 78% of you want to see more system reviews here. That in itself didn’t surprise me, but I’m guessing that many of that number were not aware that the page entitled ‘Premium Systems’ contains links to the reviews of those products, all of which were trialled here on the blog!

If you didn’t know that, feel free to check that page out. And be assured, there will be more reviews to come.

Prize draw winners are as follows:
rdasent736
woger2002
garrycurtis
je_savage
backyardgardener

If you have already purchased TFS, send me your receipt and I’ll refund you. Hopefully that doesn’t apply to all of you!! ;o)

Thank you again again for taking time out to do this: I will take some time over the weekend to review your individual comments, many of which have warmed me far more than the following has cooled me….

According to Christian mythology, dear reader, the Holy Grail was the dish, plate, or cup used by Jesus at the Last Supper, said to possess miraculous powers.

It’s also the name of a racing system / service provider on the internet. This is what they had to say about TFS today:

TrainerFlatStats System…if you are getting inundated with emails
from people promoting this like I am…with the usual “only a few
copies left” ploy…yeah right!!…you can save your money. If you are
a subscriber on May 1st I will tell you where you can download it for
free. It’s nothing more than stats for every racecourse that you could
find for yourself on any decent racing site and the results are HEAVILY
backfitted to include many big priced winners.

As well as preparing to instruct my lawyers (pending a full retraction of the above to the same list as were sent this), I feel a little qualification is required.

1. TFS sales page will come down on Sunday evening / Monday morning. No if’s or but’s. No marketing strategy. I’m extremely disappointed with the reaction of some myopic luddites who fear collaboration and prefer to defame or libel (even with the legal implications of so doing).

2. You cannot find the stats ANYwhere else, because I spend between four and six weeks each season researching them, and using criteria that nobody else uses (i.e. males only, 14/1 price threshold).

3. Backfitting…. Hmm, now this is trickier, as all statistic based systems are predicated on the belief that history will repeat itself. However, to mitigate the dangers associated with this, and also in some cases to insure against the smaller than ideal sam
ple sizes, I always ask myself if there is a logical reason to the trend. If I don’t believe that, it doesn’t make the cut. And the stats have made very tidy profits.

Enough already. I am growing very tired of the back biting. Hence, TFS guide will not be available after the weekend. [Note, the subscription service will continue and will be the only way you can get involved, should you wish.]

Having been infuriated by these individuals, I googled Holy Grail, and was somewhat delighted to be presented with a bunch of links to youtube clips of the marvellous Monty Python movie, one of which is below. (This is especially pertinent if you live in the Smoke, and are contemplating which of the inept candidates to vote for…)

Happy Friday, and Good Weekend to you!

Hacked Off of Hackney

It was Narcissus, dear reader, who stared into still water and fell in love with his own reflection. And it is the rest of us who tend to appreciate our compliments from other people.

So I guess I should have been flattered to learn today that the download link for TrainerFlatStats was being published freely on racing forums on the internet.

This is not the first time I’ve been ripped off, and I’ve little doubt it will be the last. Nevertheless, it leaves a bitter taste in the mouth each time.

The flip side of course is that if you’re peddling crap, nobody is fussed for the link! :o)
[Rest assured, I've now changed the download link, so the thieves and scumbags will have to try a little harder for their freebie!]

Rant over!

Onto happier news, and all of you TrainerTrackStats followers are enjoying a pleasant enough swansong to the season, which finishes a week today.

There were three qualifiers today, and they all won. At 7/1, 7/1 and 4/1. As one happy punter put it:

Thanks for the kind words, Mr P, and I’m delighted to be of service.

[Please don't try to sign up for TTS: it's now finished for the season to new subscribers.]

In order to balance the books somewhat, I must also tell you that the two TrainerFlatStats runners were both 3rd… in 3 runner races. Nevertheless, we’ll be back tomorrow for some more…

I’ve received a lot of emails in the last couple of days saying firstly that Cape Colony wasn’t a qualifier Monday night, and secondly that they couldn’t see Tom Dascombe on the trainers to follow list at Windsor (following my post that evening).

To put the record straight, I mistaken put up Cape Colony on the email service, and he was not a qualifier. Though he did win at 3/1. So, sorry for that. I think!

Regarding Tom Dascombe, longer suffering (!) readers will know that he was one of my six trainers to follow this season. You can see the full list here.

It also includes Ron Harris, who saddled up 10/1 winner Hart of Gold today!

And, from my ‘alternative ten to follow’ for the season, the two runners so far have finished 3rd (my own Rapid City, at 8/1), and 1st (Dunn’o at 6/4). Check this motley crew out here.

They race tomorrow at Beverley and this is normally time to punt like men, using the draw to guide us in the sprints. Alas, there is only one sprint and there are only a handful of runners. :o(

I still expect high drawn horses to hold sway at up to 1m, and Cornerstone is a front runner, who could get out and stay out. I’ll be having a couple of shekels each way on this one.

That’s all for now, so I’ll say ciao ciao.

Matt

New racetracks get laid about as often as new train tracks in this country, dear reader (said the author with admirable restraint, avoiding the obvious 40 year old virgin gag).

And, based on the delays to opening Great Leighs, they are about as punctual as our dearly beloved ‘rattlers’.

So it was with a mixture of curiosity and trepidation that I headed out east into the depths of Essex to see what all the fuss has been about…

Now, although Great Leighs (GL hereafter, to save my blistered digits) has opened for racing, it is not yet open to the public: yesterday was the first of six ‘test days’ to ensure the infrastructure and logistics can handle the expected East of England throng in due course.

I was lucky enough to be one of the invited few, by dint of the fact that my share in a beastie, Rapid City, was taking its chance (alongside all the other shares in the same horse, mercifully - it would not have been good if just a leg and his tail showed up, which is about the degree of my ownership!)

I got there late. I thought I might. But I didn’t realise just how deep into Essex countryside GL is. The sane way from the metropolis (should you be a fellow capital dweller) is on the previously cursed rattler out of Liverpool St. 45 minutes from there is a lot better than about an hour and a half by car.

That said, when you get to Braintree or Chelmsford, the nearest stations, you will have to conjure a taxi or hope that the hopper bus to the track has waited for you. I’m sure that, come the opening race day (on 28th May), all will be tickety-boo in this regard.

So what of the track itself? Well, blimey… It’s really quite a sight. In fact, it’s a mightily impressive site. And I think ’site’ is still the operative word, as this picture suggests…

But credit where credit is due: after a wait of eighteen months beyond the originally scheduled debut meeting (yes, they should have been racing since October 2006!), and even given the fact that there is a temporary grandstand, and just a pile of scaffolding where the permanent counterpart will come to rest, the racing was both competitive and well received.

My main interest, aside from the course itself, was to see how the equine apple of my eye, Rapid City, would cope in a true run race after the preposterous dawdle at Kempton last time out.

As it turned out, I’m still not sure, as the pace was no more than steady. That said, Rapid cruised through the race, and looked like the winner turning in. But, when push came to shove, as it inevitably does, Rapid was outpaced in the last two furlongs, and finished third of the eleven starters.

Nevertheless, he acquitted himself well, and will clearly be suited by a full on end to end gallop. He also provided a return on my - and, judging from the e-mailbag, a number of your - investments at 8/1 (available at 10’s if you were up early on Sunday).

There will be some nice races to pretend we have a chance of winning later in the season, and just a faint possibility that I may need to hire a topper and tails for a June trip to Ascot. OK, so it’s a very faint hope. But that is, after all, why people have their ickle equine interests!

As to whether GL makes the grade, only time will tell. Having been at Kempton recently for a night meeting and wondered if there was actually any racing on (there can’t have been more than a hundred people in the place), I suspect that GL will go one of two ways.

My scepticism is not shared by most other judges - many of whom are far better placed than me to comment on such matters - who reckon that GL’s location in a big untapped conurbation offers huge potential.

I hope they’re right, because I admire the developer’s entrepreneurial spirit and fearlessness in bringing this project together. Good luck to him, and you if you plan to be there on (or before) the 28th May!

One footnote from a punting perspective: there was lots of (idle) chat about best place to be, draw positions etc, which will be nothing but conjecture for at least a month, when a realistic sample of races have been run.

But I can tell you this: it’s a bloody long way home from the turn, and the surface is currently riding soft. It felt like a very deep shag carpet when I strolled across it. It really takes some getting, and there’ll be many done in the shadows of the post I fancy.

Onto despatches, and well done to you if you backed Tom Dascombe’s only runner of the day today, Savile’s Delight continuing the trainer’s almost unbelievable record with a tidy 7/2 win at Windsor tonight.

TFS also rowed in with the 1-2 in the 6.25, Silver Rime (11/4) beating Adversity (5/1), with TFS’ other horse a non-qualifier in the race (because it was 20/1: too big a price), Legislation finishing a close up fourth.

So three runners, one winner at 11/4, a 5/1 second, and an unplaced horse at Pontefract.

Speaking of TFS (as I inevitably always do!), I’ve got a special ‘unadvertised bonus’ for all current TFS guide purchasers, which I’ve just put the finishing touches to, as a way of saying thank you for your custom.

It’s a short(er) guide with the same degree of detail that features in the main TrainerFlatStats guide, but this is for the four all weather tracks (including Kempton, and excluding - obviously, I hope - Great Leighs).

I’ve called it, predictably enough, TrainerSandStats (TSS), and look out for an email from me explaining how you can download your copy.

If you want a copy of TSS, the only way to get it is by ordering the TFS guide from here.

And just to clarify, because I know some of you have seen emails suggesting I’m going to pull the TrainerFlatStats site down soon, well…. that’s true. I’ve really be gobsmacked by the response to TFS (hence the reason I’m giving you all another guide that I could have sold for £27 or thereabouts).

I am planning to leave the page up until next weekend, and then its coming down. This is obviously not marketing speak (you’ve already witnessed first hand my dodgy attempts at this, so you know I’m not telling porkies!).

As they say at Tesco’s, when its gone its gone!

Right, that reminds me, time for my weekly food shop…

Matt

Following on from my review of the betalay service, dear reader, and some of you have been kind enough to share your experiences since taking the plunge.

Hi Matt

Just a quick update on BetaLay. I ran through the whole card plus all the American races until about 2 a.m this morning using Grey Horse Bot.

Result - 59 winning bets with just 4 losers. I am building a bank and yesterday my stakes were £3 and later £4 using 2% of bank. Increase stakes by £1 every £50 profit.

Profit for the day £109.61 after Betfair commission deducted.

I have monitored this system now for the last week, I was astonished to find so many qualifiers for this simple system. What amazed me most was the SP of the qualifiers compared to the Racing Post price (this at the time scared me in laying terms) but after the weeks paper trade i find my bank starting from just £20 is now at an amazing £55.75.

Its becoming clear that betalay has been doing… well betathanjustok!

As you’ll probably remember its a very simple system: my review is here, and the pitch page is here if you’re interested in complementing your portfolio with a laying system.

Enjoy your weekend!
Matt

Well it seems to be the time of year, dear reader, when every man and his dog is sharing the ten horses they’re most looking forward to seeing this season. And, in the spirit of this, I thought I’d share mine with you.

However, if you’re expecting the usual ten Classic contenders, you’re in for something of a surprise…

After last season’s lucrative alternative group of ten, I’ll have another crack this season.

As caveated last season, this list has a chance to go one of two ways: I suspect that there will be no middle ground with this. Most of these horses have something to prove, and pretty much none of them will make it to the top of their class.

But, from a punting perspective, does that matter? The reason for picking these ten is that I think they may win once or twice at nice prices.

And you’ll notice a number of my favourite trainers represented here, as well as a slight concession to myself…

So, with that in mind, here we go:

1. Rough Sketch (Tr: Sir Mark Prescott; 3yo gelding)

A 3yo, with three runs in sprint maidens last season, Rough Sketch has all the classic hallmarks of a Prescott improver.

By Arc winner, Peintre Celebre, out of a Saddlers’ Wells mare, this nag is clearly bred for at least middle distances.

So it will have been no surprise that he was well beaten in three starts from 6-7f.

Likely to start off a rating in the early 50’s, I’ll be surprised if this unit isn’t placed to run up a sequence in middle to long distance handicaps.

Beware though: if he wins first time out, expect him to be odds on for a couple of runs thereafter.

2. Astrodome (Tr: Sir Mark Prescott; 3yo gelding)

The same drill again here. It really is a pea shelling exercise for the Prescott team with some of these types.

In the case of Astrodome, he makes the cut ahead of stablemates General Ting, Almamia and Lady Calido only because his sire, Domedriver, won me a stack of cash at the Breeders Cup a few years back! (Domedriver won the BC Mile, beating Rock of Gibraltar – desperate terrible ugly ride from Mick Kinane – at odds of 26/1).

I digress. Astrodome went from being beaten 22 lengths over 7f, to being beaten ‘only’ 9 lengths over a mile (8f).

He’s a half brother to Alambic who had a similar profile in 2006. That animal ended up winning six from seven in the space of as many weeks.

3. Hill Queen (Tr: Luca Cumani; 4yo filly)

Luca Cumani is known for taking a similar approach to Sir Mark in ‘warming up’ horses for handicaps.

In this case, however, I’m enrolling a slightly more exposed nag into my ten. Hill Queen had three runs in Italy as a 2yo, the last of which being a victory.

Last season, she also had three runs, culminating in a fair bronze medal at Kempton.

She’s unquestionably not a superstar, but if / when she wins, you can expect that it will pay for the times she doesn’t.

4. Ridge Rose (Tr: Luca Cumani; 4yo filly)

More in the mould of the affable and wily Italian’s stings, Ridge Rose had three anonymous enough runs in maiden company last season, and will doubtless be tackling handicaps this term.

A half-sister to none other than 2007 Champion Hurdler Sublimity, she will be running over a mile and a half or further, and I doubt she’ll be long before winning.

5. Rapid City (Tr: Julia Feilden; 5yo gelding)

Ok, so I probably do need to apologise for including this horse in my list, as I own a piece of him! However, I think he takes his place on merit.

He had a great first season for us, mopping up three AW races, and finishing 2^nd another twice, before injuring himself when running quite well in the Newbury Spring Mile.

His first since was a month ago at Kempton, and the lack of pace there was totally against him.

Julia says she’s got nothing that can live with him on the gallops, and he’s going to be running at Great Leighs in their inaugural fixture this Sunday.

I’ll be there and cheering, and I’m hopeful that our patience last year with the injury will be vindicated over the course of the spring and summer.

6. Naughty Thoughts (Tr: Tom Dascombe; 4yo filly)

I’ve nailed my colours firmly to the Dascombe mast this season in my trainers to follow series, and I have nominated one of his mules here.

Forgive me for saying this, but I love the name… However, no nag makes my ten on nomenclature alone. No indeed!

This donkey won a seller for Andrew Turnell three starts back, and was bought in the ensuing auction by the shrewd Dascombe for about nine grand.

Since then, she won an apprentice handicap (for which I believe horses do not receive a penalty), and then finished 3^rd in a soft ground Folkestone handicap.

Realistically rated on 60-odd, she is unlikely to be done with winning just yet, and is one to keep an eye on.

7. Brexca (Tr: Clive Cox; 3yo gelding)

Three runs in 2yo maidens at the end of last season, the final one of which was a runner up spot over a mile at Newbury.

He looks bred to be a miler (by Diktat out of a Distinctly North mare), and may cut some ice in decent handicaps this season.

8. Dunn’o (Tr: Clive Cox; 3yo gelding)

Another from the Cox yard, this one has also had just the three qualifying runs in maidens to date.

He ran with credit on all occasions, the worst of which was a 4 ½ length fourth behind Wednesday’s Newmarket winner, Prohibit.

He could be a nice horse and will probably be pitched at a good handicap at Royal Ascot.

Before then though, despite the option of handicaps, Cox has entered Dunn’o in a maiden at Bath next week.

9. Mullein (Tr: Ralph Beckett; 3yo filly)

Ralph is a great trainer, and I’m a big fan of him. It’s a pleasure to include one of his team here, and the filly in question is unexposed and could develop into a tidy animal.

Having finished close-ish in a very decent Ascot maiden on her debut, she came back for her first run this season in a maiden at Kempton on the all weather
.

Despite making her own running, she scorched four lengths clear by the line, and has obviously got further improvement to come.

I hope Beckett doesn’t go down the conditions / listed race route with her, because although I think she could win such races, we’ll get a better price in handicaps!

10. Rattan (Tr: ‘Sir’ Henry Cecil; 3yo colt)

No list of ten would be complete in my eyes without the living legend that is Henry Cecil.

Regular readers know the affection in which I hold this man. And its not just emotional, but financial too.

After a few seasons wallowing in the doldrums (and who wouldn’t given the awful turn of events that beset dear Henry in that time), he bounced back last season in Classic-winning fashion.

He’s right at the top of the trainer’s hot list at the moment, and I think Rattan might be a nice one to look out for.

Three juvenile runs all ended in silver medals, and it surely won’t be long before this imperially bred Khalid Abdulla gets a deserved gold. Or two.

So there it is – my ten plodders to follow. Probably no equine superstars in there, but quite possibly some good payoffs to be had for those who keep the faith.

I’ll track the progress of this bunch from time to time and, if you have any comments, or your own dark horses to follow for the season, why not add them as a comment to this article.

I’ve no monopoly on content here, my racing friends!

******

Time now for a quick TrainerFlatStats update. After a slow start in March, when we finished £83 to £20 level stakes, April has been very pleasing to date. In fact this month, we’re up £242.

So, in total, that’s £325 up on the season to this point. Have you converted to TFS yet?

AND… THAT EXCLUDES TWO 20/1 WINNERS THAT WERE NON-QUALIFIERS ON THE 14/1 RULE (YES, IT HAPPENED AGAIN TODAY!!)

AND… that excludes ‘unofficial’ Yarmouth pick, Polar Force today… One happy Danish follower wrote:

Hi TFS,

Thanks, you’re simply the best I’ve got the “Always Brave” to 15.5/1 and went for your extra pick “Polar Force” at 19/1.

Just perfect

Who am I to disagree?!

Check out these completely independent blog posts here.

(They’re actually quite embarrassing, but hell I’m starting to enjoy it!)

e-Guide: www.trainerflatstats.com

Monthly subscription: www.trainerflatstats.com/subscriptions.html

Results: www.trainerflatstats.com/tfs2008results.html

******

A quick joke for you:

Thieves took advantage of the “Battle of Britain “Champions League match
Between Liverpool and Arsenal on Wednesday night to burgle two more
footballers’ homes. The first unfortunate player was Liverpool skipper
Steven Gerrard. The crooks got away with countless items of football
memorabilia including many of Gerrard’s own medals. Amongst the items
currently being hunted by police are:

2 FA Cup winners medals
FA Youth Cup winners medal
2 league cup winners medals
Champions league winners medal
Uefa cup winners medal
2 super cup winners medals
2 charity shield winners medals

They also took a number of personal awards including player of the year,
young player of the year and his much cherished MBE

The other unfortunate player to be targeted was Arsenal’s Cesc Fabregas.
Thieves are thought to have escaped with a kettle and a toaster.

******

Now I don’t normally do this, but in this case I had to make an exception. To help a little girl who has to undergo some horror treatment, a charity ‘closed auction’ is being held for some racing lots. The details are below:

Molly, age 2, is suffering from a retinoblastoma (cancer of the eye) and had her eye removed to prevent spread of cancer. Unfortunately the cancer had already spread into the fluid surrounding the brain and spine so Molly has had to begin chemotherapy.

Molly has received fabulous treatment from 3 hospitals (Dumfries Royal, Birmingham Children and Yorkhill Sick Children) all specialising in different aspects of her care. In an attempt to thank them and to support the families who spend a lot of time there Lockerbie & District Parent & Toddler Group are holding a number of fundraising events.

The lots up for grabs are:

A. Programme for 2008 Grand National signed by all the jockeys.

B. Signed autobiography of Timmy Murphy 2008 National Winner

C. Breeches belonging to Tony Dobbin (champion national hunt jockey & ‘the only jockey to win the Grand National on Monday’ who rode his last race on 12th April 2008) signed by himself, A. P. McCoy, Brian Harding and many others.

If you want to bid, you can do so by nominating the lot you are interested in, and the amount you’re prepared to bid, in an email to Lucy Mair (click here).

******

Finally, it’s Friday, so it must be Friday Fun time…

Continuing in the children’s TV mould, here is a bit of Captain Pugwash. Contrary to urban legend, all of the crew did not have smutty innuendo names. Which personally I think is a great pity….

That’s all for today. Happy Friday, and if you haven’t got TFS yet, get with the programme!

Those slings and arrows I referred to the other day are at it again, dear reader.

Newmarket raised the curtain on its bumper flat season today, and there is going to be lots of action there for TFS followers over the summer.

It is by far and away the busiest turf track for TFS - the AW has more, but that’s for later in the year - with no less than ELEVEN trainers to follow (nine of them two star trainers, which is very good).

And so it was that there were four potential qualifiers in the opening race.

Better still: the first three home were three of them! At 20/1, 5/1 and 7/2.

Alas for TFS, the swing had this time swung, as we only bet at 14/1 or shorter, this winner was passed up for most.

But for some, they rowed in anyway, buoyed on by the belief that it would be 14’s or shorter (Racing Post forecast was 9/1!)

One email I received this evening said,

“Thanks a lot Matt, today I have accidentally wagered on Pampa’s Cat, ignoring the warning about the odds being too long.. And I won at 26/1. That was a pleasant surprise, even though it was accidental. You’re a genius.“

Regular readers will know that I often pop a negative note on here from Angry of Andover or Disgruntled of Didcot; so it’s only fair to balance that out a little… though I’m not quite sure about the genius bit!

But of course, for the strict TFS disciplinarians, who did just what they were supposed to do, this was two points lost rather than 25 odd points gained.

No matter, for later on the same card, the same trainer (John Gosden: look out especially for him and David Elsworth at Newmarket) banged in further winners at 11/10 (Virtual) and 8/1 (Prohibit) to put TFS followers in the pink yet again in this early season purple patch (if that’s not too much of a colour clash mixed metaphor!). No feeling blue for us!

There’s a load more tomorrow, and you can either work the runners out for yourself here, or get someone to do it for you here.

[TTS, the jumping version, is enjoying a last hurrah, with another winner today from three runners: this time at 9/2]

I’ve been working on my alternative ten to follow tonight, and will have what I hope you’ll agree is an interesting list for you by Friday, so keep an eye out for those.

By the way, you’ll have noticed a little ebook (Casino Cash Cow) on the left hand side at the top of the page. I’ve not tried this as I’m not a casino player. But it was recommended to me as something of interest by a normally reliable judge, and it looks an interesting concept.

If you’ve used this guide, please drop me a line and tell me how it went.

Until next time…
Matt

Simplicity, dear reader, is a much underrated commodity these days. It seems that pretty much everything is upsold, embellished or otherwise overengineered.

And so it was something of a guilty pleasure to receive a system to review that in its essence is so simple that even my dear ol’ grandmama could exploit it (were it not for the fact that she was a lumberjack and she was ok…)

The Betalay system is as straightforward as they come. Being an uncomplicated individual at heart, for all that I’d like to believe otherwise, I relished the opportunity to trial this system, and secretly prayed that it would perform at least ok.

To work the system, you need to identify races under certain (very obvious when you know them) conditions and look for a horse in a specific place in the market… and then lay it.

Making life ever easier for myself, I elected to eliminate horses that were tied for this market position, and thus only notionally layed those who were ranked outright in the position.

And, erm, that’s it.

The results? Pretty amazing to be honest…

To offer a balanced view of Betalay, I feel I need to mention a couple of points here.

Firstly, I have rarely received more comments on a system in my box than this one. This means that a) its popular already, and b) it seems to polarise opinion.

Many have - quite rightly - pointed out that the results page at the Betalay site calculates returns to SP, as opposed to above SP as we need to do when laying with the exchanges. Moreover, there is no account for commission on winning trades. I have accounted for both of these in my results sheet below.

You can see the full picture here.

Secondly, in order to optimise this system, you really need to be tracking the pre-race market. Now you can use ‘bot (i.e. automated market tracking) software, or you can simply lay horses only when you’re at home and have access to the live shows.

That’s up to you.

My overall view of Betalay is that I am actually surprised that a system so simple in concept can perform so well in execution. Of course, we need to remember that I only traced the system for seven days.

Nevertheless, during that time, it produced 83 bets, of which 92% were rolled over. Just six winners ate into the proceeds.

If you are an occasional player, you can be sure that whenever you fancy a wager and you’re able to track the live shows, there’ll be some action for you.

I’ve actually seen a website that tries to discredit this product, by using proprietary software to review its performance over a longer term. Even when doing this, it is forced to concede that - while not matching the results page on the site (due to exchange prices being higher) - Betalay still made money over the course of a season.

If you like simpler systems that you can dip into as and when you’re able to, I haven’t seen one better than this to date. Recommended.

Incidentally, and on the subject of systems, TrainerFlatStats had just the two runners today, both winning. Although the odds of 8/11 and 5/2 will not have made many followers wealthy, two from two is a hundred percent strike rate and not to be sniffed at. You ought to know where the sales page is by now…!

Back later in the week with an Alternative Ten To Follow for this Flat Season.

Matt

Slings and arrows, dear reader, are the units of currency of Shakespearian outrageous fortune. Or so the Elizabethan blighter would have us believe…

And it so it was that after a couple of quiet days across the TrainerTrackStats (TTS) / TrainerFlatStats (TFS) portfolio, the calm was supplanted by storm today. And a happy, lucrative storm at that.

TTS followers are used to good days and - in fairness - the occasional stinker. TFS followers have all of this to come.

So what happened?? Well, there were three potential qualifiers for TTS:

Prince De Beury and Hora both in the same race at Ascot, and Mamlook later on the same card.

The record shows that Hora won at 8/1, with his slightly better fancied stablemate, the Prince coming home 3rd at 4/1.

Mamlook didn’t qualify because he was a 20/1 shot. Which is a great pity: he won too! (Well done to the two of you who emailed to tell me you’d backed him, one of you at 30 on betfair).

If you’re new to my ramblings and wafflings, you can see the TTS season to date here. [It's a big file, so give it a minute; two or three if you're on dial up].

TFS, not to be outdone, had six potential qualifiers, which performed as follows:

Doncaster:
2.40 Silver Rime (2nd at 5/1)
2.40 Horatio Carter (non-qualifier, 33/1 no hoper, the search party has not yet found him!)
4.25 He’s A Humbug (non-qualifier, well beaten at 18/1)

Musselburgh:
4.15 Tajweed (won at evens)
4.50 Ansells Pride (won at 5/1)
4.50 Frank Crow (poor 7th at 8/1)

Two winners at evens and 5/1 and a 5/1 2nd from 4 qualifiers. That’s the joy that TFS can bring to your life :o) [Ok, so I'm slapping it on a bit thick there, but you see what I'm getting at!]

The season’s results to date can be seen here.

But I should tell you that not everyone is enjoying the ride. A doubtless otherwise fine gentleman (ahem, excuse me) sent me this:

I THINK YOUR TAKING THE PISS WITH THE LOAD OF RUBBISH YOU SENT ME AND WILL BE IN TOUCH WITH PAY PAL FOR A FULL REFUND IF THATS THE WAY YOU MAKE A LIVING YOUR ON TO A LOOSER

Now, everyone knows that if a refund is required, a refund can be had: that’s the deal! And in this case, I can confirm that the dear chap has already been reacquainted with his folding.

But this case irritated me because between buying the guide at 8.20pm on 8th April and requesting a refund at, er, 3.49AM on 10th April, a staggering 31 hours and 29 minutes had elapsed.

Not only that, but the huge tally of ONE race horse had run under the TFS banner, it finishing fourth at 5/2. Barely catastrophic.

My personal annoyance at this on one side, the point is that if you need your next bet to be a winner, then TFS probably isn’t for you. In fact, if you need your next bet to be a winner, you should be buying groceries with your stake money.

I don’t condone betting more than you can afford. I believe in responsible gambling.

Every runner cannot be a winner if you take a statistical approach (or even if you don’t). That is very clear with TFS and I hope that all of you fine people who tune into this wordy webbie understand that.

TTS has now had 190 winners this season (from 874 bets), and a staggering 454 placed in the first three (obviously from the same number of bets).

Given that TTS did this last season too (final score: 220 winners and 497 placed in first three from 969), there is no reason to believe TFS will not follow in the same vein.

OK, the soap box is safely tucked away, and I shall endeavour to retain a positive bearing henceforth.

Anyway, you can still get a copy of TrainerFlats by clicking here.

Or you can sign up for the daily emails by clicking here.

I’m off to meet my chums for a glass or two. Beer doesn’t drink itself you know!

ttfn
Matt

Eric Thompson, dear reader, must have been an interesting chap. I mean, I imagine he probably worked about two hours a week and, between shifts, smoked himself into a happy pot-ty frenzy (or more likely, torpor!)

“Who the hell is Eric Thompson?”, I hear you mumble. You probably shouted it, or screamed it, or yelled it. But my ears are not so good, and most things come across as little more than a mumble. I think I might have to get an ear trumpet. Or something.

Anyway, I digress. For today is Friday. Halla-flippin’-lujah! And Friday is Friday Fun day, as often as I remember and have access to my machine.

I’ve been over to youtube as ever, and I’ve plundered some of Eric Thompson’s work. He was, of course, the writer and director of none other than The Magic Roundabout, the BBC’s somewhat hallucinogenic 1970’s children’s TV programme.

There are some lovely gags for the grown-ups interspersed with the kiddies’ entertainment and, unless I’m much mistaken, the inspiration for Thomas The Tank Engine’s on screen presence may have been born here… Take a look:

Briefly before I close, I’m pleased to report that the TFS subscription service is now back up and running, and all glitches are a (not yet dim and distant) memory. There are potentially six qualifiers today, though a subset of these will likely breach the 14/1 price threshold.

If you’d like to sign up, you can do so here.

I’ll be back later with a review of the day’s action: TFS and betalay, the lay service I’m trialling here.

Until then…
Matt

Buffoonery, dear reader, is all around us. We see it every day, and we scoff, safe in the knowledge that we are not buffoons. Oh no. It is other people who were basted with the buffoon brush. We are above that sort of idiotic behaviour.

Well, I’ve got news for you. Or, more specifically, I’ve had a(nother) confirmation of news for me. I am a buffoon. Officially. Signed and sealed.

The reason for this bout of self-flagellation? Simple. As a number of you know from trying to sign up to the TrainerFlatStats email subscription service, I’ve cocked up yet another simple process.

It seems that these idiot-proof services are not all they say they are. Or, put another way, if a service wants to assure itself that it genuinely is idiot-proof, they should ask me to test it first!

Enough already…

The genuine, correct, bona fide, kosher, legit, pukka, sorted, guaranteed to work, can’t fail, sign up link is now in place… I hope!

So, if you’d like to take the hassle out of finding the TrainerFlatStats qualifiers each day, you can sign up HERE for an email a day to keep your bookie at bay. :o)

The season is about to kick off for real, after the false dawn of Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting, and you’ve missed very little (TFS currently marginally in front from a very few bets).

To read more about what TrainerFlatStats is, and why you should be interested, click here.

Sixth of six, dear reader, is ostensibly not very good. It’s also known as last. But, in the Flat Trainers To Follow pantheon, there is a very flat hierarchy, such that all trainers enjoy virtual parity.

The point of all this bluster? I’m trying to tell you that the man I’m about to introduce is no less worthy of note and / or your support than any of the five who preceded him. He is a sixth dead-heater in the Track ‘Em and Back ‘Em Stakes. He is… Mr Ron Harris.

Although Ron has been on the go for less time than some of his more famous fellows in the Trainers to Follow roster, he’s made his mark rightly enough.

In fact, employing the usual male horses, 14/1 or shorter criteria, and then saying 2-8yo’s in handicaps and having run in the last 15 days, Ron has a spanking 96 points profit to his name. That’s a return on investment of over 30%!

He’s still something of an unknown to most people, so make hay while the Ron still shines.

That completes our merry band of six… to recap, they are:

Ron Harris (Handicaps)
Saeed bin Suroor
Sir Mark Prescott (Handicaps)
Tom Tate
Tom Dascombe
Clive Cox

There are a few specific conditions with some of them (if you’re not sure, use the search option at the top of the page, and type in their name - remember to select ’search www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk’ - and a link to the post will come up. In fact, you can search every post I’ve ever written for whatever you like, using the same approach).

Onto TrainerFlatStats, and there are a couple of runners tomorrow at Folkestone to catch our eye. If you’ve been having difficulty finding the TFS qualifiers (as I know some of you have), I’ve got some good news:

TFS will have a subscription service this season after all!

I am delighted to be able to offer this service again, because it has been hugely popular in the past, and - if you simply don’t have time to pick out the qualifiers each night, or you are not sure to begin with - then this is an ideal way for you to get all of the benefit of TFS on autopilot.

You can sign up straightaway and will receive the first email tomorrow for Friday’s racing, when the service officially launches.

I’ve kept the cost as reasonable as I can and, at £22 per month (less than 71p a day), I hope you agree that its excellent value.

To sign up, go to www.trainerflatstats.com/subscription.html

Get yourself signed up and don’t miss another TFS winner!

That’s all for now so, as they’ll be singing in Manchester tonight, Arrivederci Roma…

Matt

It’s another strike from the school of the blindingly obvious, dear reader, as today I rock up with number five on my list of trainers to follow for the 2008 flat turf season. And accept my apologies for the lack of surprise when I tell you who it is…

This man is a former policeman, who was treated with a lot of disdain when he first start training in this country, including by me. I have repaid my debt for my stupidity by opposing him for a few seasons before the - rather large, glaringly apparent - penny dropped.

Step forward if you will, Mr Saeed bin Suroor. Always worthy of note, Saeed is THE man when it comes to maiden colts.

In fact, backing his 2-5yo male horses in maiden races only (odds between evens and 14/1) would have done this for your betting account:

That’s a pretty much 30% strike rate, and almost £1,800 profit for £20 wagers at SP. Betting with betfair you can make that more than two grand.

Just for backing the most obvious bloke in maiden races with his chaps, when they’re not odds on (and not stupid prices, though I doubt he has too many at 16/1 or bigger).

So there we go: five down, one to come. The last is a little more ‘under the radar’ than Mr bin Suroor, but no less worthy of note.

ttfn

Matt