Time is conspiring against me, dear reader, for I am trying to get my Cheltenham preparations complete, and also to scribe the review for the Greyhound Tipster software I’ve been trialling here on the blog this week.

Much study required and not much time… Add to this the fact that I’m neck deep in flat stats (did you realise in all this Festival frenzy that the Lincoln meeting, the traditional ‘curtain up’ for the turf flat season, is just two weeks away?!), as my research for TrainerFlatStats 2008 steps up.

But enough whingeing and whining about my woes… and to the software and lay service that is Greyhound Tipster.

As you know, I’ve been posting the selections here on the blog this week, and tracking the results at this page.

The software uses some proprietary algorithms, based on sectional timings of dogs’ previous runs, to identify the slow hounds.

Given that I use a similar approach as a starting point for my Laying System, I had high hopes for this service.

Day one with the system got us off to a flyer, as 11 from 12 choices were beaten, with the winner being an eminently acceptable 6/4 shot.

However, trouble was to follow later in the week as, from 59 qualifiers, a further nine prevailed at the jamstick.

Their odds (mainly from 7/2 to 5/1) seriously munched into the profits generated from the losers.

But here is the rub: if this was a horse laying service, you’d expect to lay at around 16% above the SP, and the market strength (in terms of volume of cash / number of transactions) would ensure that this figure was broadly upheld.

This isn’t a horse laying service, and there simply isn’t the same liquidity in the dog markets that there is for horses. Take the 20:09 race at Sunderland that has just gone off as an example. There was just under £6,000 matched on this race.

Compare that with an average horse race, where there will probably be around a million quid matched, and you can see the problem.

Where this becomes material and, in my opinion, makes Greyhound Tipster unviable, is that you have to lay on betfair at something nearer to 40% over SP in order to be sure of getting matched. Now, for sure, sometimes you can lay at closer to SP, but typically you’re looking at inflated exposure in this ballpark.

Overall financial performance was as follows:

59 selections
49 losers
10 winners
Loss of £105 assuming odds to lay were 40% above SP.
Profit of £6 assuming odds to lay were 25% above SP.

So, if you can be selective about your wagers, it is probably possible to make a small amount using this system.

One other point that is relevant. Looking ahead to the last BAGS race on the Sunderland card tonight, at 21:12 (i.e. in 54 minutes, as I write this), there is a total of £0 matched. That’s not a single wager struck less than an hour before the race.

This means you need to either use software to place your bets, or you have to be in front of your machine when the race is off. There is no way of using the early market to predict the prices, because there is no early market!

On balance then, I think this is a decent product that has no market. I wish I could recommend Greyhound Tipster because I do think there is some clever science supporting it. But, as with all betting systems, the bottom line is the bottom line.

And, with no liquidity in the market, there is no strong chance of making a profit, because you have to chase people’s pounds with grossly overinflated odds offers.

I think a similar piece of software, were it made available for horse racing (or indeed any other sport for which the market was strong), would be very interesting indeed.

But, ultimately, I cannot recommend this as there is very limited scope to get matched at a fair price.

Ciao for now,

Matt

Martial arts, dear reader, are a lot like marital arts: they take a lifetime to get good at and, at the end of the journey, most blokes are still crap…

Happy Friday!

Matt

It’s the last day of the school week, dear reader, and the last examination of Greyhound Tipster.

After such a bright start, the selections have unfortunately picked a few too many winners to be profitable.

I think this is a pity, as I like the approach this system takes (based as it is on speed, or lack of speed, in certain flea-bitten mutts).

But… the proof of the pudding is in the punting, as they don’t say, and this has failed to deliver the goods to date, alas. Do bear in mind that I’m basing these statements on only four days runners, and this may not be indicative of overall performance.

Last day’s calamitous canines below:

Wimbledon 22.00 Trap4
Hall Green 13.13 Trap6
Sheffield 20.13 Trap6
Sheffield 18.56 Trap1
Hall Green 12.04 Trap4
Hall Green 12.32 Trap3
Walthamstow 13.44 Trap1
Walthamstow 13.27 Trap1
Wimbledon 21.00 Trap4
Hall Green 13.19 Trap3
Wimbledon 20.00 Trap2
Nottingham 19.06 Trap3

Matt

The slow ones, dear reader, according to the numbers at least, are below:

As expected, something of a correction yesterday with a couple of winners at 9/2 and 5/1 seriously redrawing the graph.

A couple of points to note on this, which I’ll tease out in my review, is that firstly there is not a lot of liquidity on many of the greyhound races in betfair, which makes it potentially difficult to get on.

Secondly, and related to this, the market is not as solid as the horse or football markets on betfair, which means that very often you cannot lay at 16% over as with the horses. Rather, some dogs trade at much higher prices.

I will revise my spreadsheet to look at the results if 40% over SP to accommodate this.

That’s all for now.

Matt

Shelling peas, dear reader, that’s what finding the winner in this race used to be…

1997 Istabraq won his previous three starts and justified 6/5 favouritism
1998 French Holly won all four previous starts and justified 2/1 favouritism
1999 Barton won all five previous starts and also justified 2/1 favouritism
2000 Monsignor also won all five previous starts and cantered home at 5/4 favourite

In the six runnings since then, no favourite has won. But, lest you think things have got tougher, only 20/1 Massini’s Maguire last year has started at greater than 12/1 when winning.

So we’re definitely focusing on the top segment of the market to find the ‘chicken dinner’ here. But more of that in due course.

Let’s take a look at some other stats from the past ten winners first…

1. 9/10 were aged 5 or 6: this takes out 17

2. 9/10 finished 1st or 2nd last time out: this scratches a whopping 55 no hopers!

3. 9/10 had not been lower than 2nd on completed starts that season: adieu to 19 more

4. 9/10 had run to a Racing Post Rating of 145 or higher prior to winning: just eight left now

5. No speed figure for Galileo in 2002, but the other 9/9 had run to 117 or more. 7/9 had run 129 or higher

These five criteria whittles over 100 horses down to just four. The problem is that they’re four of the first five in the betting!

So, with a degree of confidence, I say that the winner comes from:

Aigle D’Or
Breedsbreeze
Forpadydeplasterer
Trafford Lad

I do appreciate that I’m not exactly setting the world alight with my controversial and / or lateral tipping here, but these - statistically at least - are the most likely winners.

Personally, I like Forpadydeplasterer (not just for the name!), and also Aigle D’Or, who probably has the most improvement in him, so I’ll side with these two for small stakes (it’s not worth betting more at the prohibitive odds).

1pt win Forpadydeplaster 11/2 (General)
1pt win Aigle D’Or 5/1 (General)

Portfolio to date

Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle
5th Mar 1 pt win Forpadydeplasterer 11/2 (general)
5th Mar 1 pt win Aigle D’Or 5/1 (general)

JCB Triumph Hurdle
28th Feb 2 pts win Serabad 32 (betfair)
28th Feb 1 pt e/w Serabad 25/1 (general)

Royal & Sun Alliance Novice Chase
26th Feb 3 pts win Silverburn 10/1 (Victor Chandler)
26th Feb 1 pt win Gold Medallist 44 (betfair)

Champion Chase
24th Feb 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
24th Feb 2 pts win Voy Por Ustedes at 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)

Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)

Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)

Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)

World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)

Looking very promising to date, dear reader, but of course still early days…

Today’s immobile mutts below….

Full results to date here.

23 qualifiers (one was last, but at 12/1 didn’t qualify: must be 10’s or shorter), only 3 winners at evens, 6/4 and 9/2.

Profit for £20 level stake lays is currently a very healthy £218. Expect a bad day before Friday to add a touch of harsh reality to what are, to date, excellent results.

More later…
Matt

p.s. If you want to read the sales blurb, click the red box on the left hand side at the top of this page.

11 out of 12, dear reader, is an impressive enough start….

Day Two lay selections below.

Sheffield 21.50 Trap 2
Wimbledom 19.30 Trap 1
Walthamstow 21.42 Trap 2
Walthamstow 20.36 Trap 6
Newcastle 21.07 Trap 3
Sheffield 22.07 Trap 3
Sheffield 18.39 Trap 2
Sunderland 16.37 Trap 1
Newcastle 19.32 Trap 3
Nottingham 12.47 Trap 1
Sheffield 20.47 Trap 5
Newcastle 19.48 Trap 2

Ciao pronto.

Matt

Gambling, dear reader, is a broad church. And wagering on living organisms has an only slightly narrower apse (now there’s a word I haven’t used for many a long year!).

Be it horses racing, cocks fighting, pigeons flying, or dumb dogs chasing a motorised cuddly toy, where there’s luck there’s brass…

So, today, I hope that the purists will forgive me. For with just seven days to go until the eve of Cheltenham, I have decided to trial a dog laying service.

Yes, you read that as I wrote it: a dog laying service. I know how easy it is to frown upon dog racing, and I must admit that for me its right down there with virtual racing. (By the way, have you seen the graphics at Millersfield, the virtual dog track? Very impressive!)

But lets face it, we are in this for the money as well as the love. And, if there’s money with no love, well that might just supplement some equine love with no money… so before dismissing things out of hand, take a squint at this:

greyhoundtipster.com does what it says on the label.

Today, I received an email early doors telling me to lay these in order of perceived chance (or lack of, given that we’re trying to get them beaten).

Now the picture is not great, but I can tell you that - as I write - the bottom two have yet to run and, of the other ten, nine were beaten, and the only winner was a 6/4 shot.

I intend to track this lay service’s progress for the rest of the school week, leaving the weekend to get back to the business of a small west country jumps meeting next week.

So, suffice it to say, early days but so far so very good… If you want more info on the service, you can check it out here:

But my advice would be to track things on here for a few days, as things may not be as good as they seem at this point… I’ll be tracking results on a spreadsheet, which you can link to here.

Gone to the dogs? I might be doing just that…

Woof woof!

Matt