One down, three to go, dear reader, and personally I can’t help but feel that the best for the trends may already be behind us. But enough of such wanton negativity, and let’s make haste to the (lucky?) seventh race at this year’s Festival.

It’s the Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle, and has been covered elsewhere in the ante-post epistles on this ‘ere blog, so I’ll just remind you that we sided with Aigle D’Or and Forpadydeplasterer (but healthy respect is extended to Breedsbreeze and Trafford Lad).

In truth, given the odds, it should really be a ‘no bet’ race, and the recommendation may be to perm these four in the first leg of your placepot. Hope it does better than my day one ‘lead zeppelin’, which entertained me for all of about five minutes…

Race two tomorrow is the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, and its going to be the first of a number of slogs in the nasty weather. Again, covered elsewhere, we’ve sided with Silverburn (at 10’s) and also the non-runner Gold Medallist.

The third race is also the third and final race already previewed elsewhere, and the highlight of the second day, the Queen Mother Champion Chase.

I can’t have Master Minded, and just hope he gets home in one piece. I make it between Voy Por Ustedes and Twist Magic, but I can’t rule out Tamarinbleu. Not original, but it’s rarely a race where original thinking is called for.

Now let’s take a look at the remaining three races on the second day:

Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

The Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle is a Grade 3 contest over two miles and five furlongs. It’s a fiendishly difficult race to solve, with a huge field of 28 going to post.

Some key trends will reduce this somewhat, so let’s see what gives:

1. As with all Cheltenham Festival handicaps, it’s a tough race to concede weight in. No horse has lugged more than 11-03. In a very compact handicap this year, we remove the top dozen runners, including – just – the favourite, Leg Spinner, who carries a pound too much.

2. From the remaining sixteen, consider that the last ten winners were all aged 5-9yo, but furthermore, bear in mind that eight of them were 6-8yo. We’ll eliminate anything not in that midrange. Six more out leaves us with ten.

3. Eight of the last ten winners of this race had between one and four previous runs that season, which removes another trio.

4. Note that the last five winners of the race had already won that season. Two of our remaining seven fail on this score, which leave five.

I couldn’t put you off any of this quintet: Mendo, Clarnazar, Naiad du Misselot, Song Of Songs and Pyleigh Lady. Actually, saying that, Song of Songs has a serious stamina question to answer, but the other four are realistic contenders.

My final note, and the one that gives me my two against the field is that 70% of the winners in the last decade had been 1^st or 2^nd over the (slightly unfashionable) distance.

The two in here who still match that trend are Mendo and Pyleigh Lady. The latter is game, goes on all ground, and could give you something to shout about at a juicy, fat price: what chance an eye-popping ride from Mr I Popham, claiming seven?!

Peter O’Sullevan National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’ Chase)

The title says it all. Well nearly. It’s also over a distance of four miles. And 27 fences. Twenty Seven. Fences. Amateur Riders. Four Miles.

It’s just a ridiculous concept for a race, and not really a betting proposition. Last year, Gungadu would have carted up, but for chucking the jockey off after at the penultimate fence. That’s the type of race this is. You need to be fearlessly reckless or recklessly fearless to punt big on it.

Nevertheless, parking my prejudices momentarily, I will share some stats that may (or may not!) persuade you to wager…

Firstly, I will only look at the last six renewals because, in truth, I can’t be arsed to waste my time on more than that!

So, all six winners were aged 7-10, with five of them seven or eight. I’ll side with the latter subset. This narrows twenty started down to eight.

Next, let us eliminate any horse that has not had at least four chase runs (inexperience will see you on your horse’y bum in this contest), as five of the last six winners had relative experience on their side. Another two bite the dust, as they almost certainly will do tomorrow afternoon.

One more point to consider: four of the last six won or were second last time out. It may seem cavalier to use ‘four from six’ as a material statistic, but anyone who wagers in this race is somewhat cavalier in my opinion anyway!

That leaves two. Old Benny and Back On Line. Very small stakes only.

Incidentally, and perhaps a better approach given that four of the last five winners were 25/1, 33/1 (twice) and 40/1, it might be better to suspend the above stats and note that Jonjo O’Neill has a phenomenal record in the race.

He’s saddled four of the last six winners, including 10/1, 25/1 and 33/1 shots. He runs two this time: Pass It On and King Of Angels, both of which are big prices.

Weatherby’s Champion Bumper

A traditionally hard race to find the winner in, with so many 1’s in the form lines and so many whispers for ‘dark horses’.

Some patterns that might help though, are:

1. 8/10 have been five years old (24 down to 16 after this stat is applied)
2. 8/10 have been Irish trained (and a further one, Liberman, was bought after winning twice in Ireland). Just seven left on the list.
3. Six of the last eight (and all of the last five) winners have had three or four runs prior to Cheltenham.
   

This leaves us with just three: Corkskeagh Royale, Drive On Regardles, and Pineau De Re. At 11/1, 33/1 and 40/1, why not have a small tickle on all of them?

By the way, you will have noticed a few more bookie ads on this page. They are here for a couple of reasons:

1. I consider these to be the most innovative layers, in terms of markets and special offers (and free bets for new customers)
2. I get a small ‘kickback’ if you sign up through my link.
   
   

So, if a horse you fancy is best priced with one of these bookies, you’d be doing us both a favour by signing up and striking the bet.

I hope you consider the content on here of sufficient value to tolerate my adding these ads. If you’re not interested in their offers, please just ignore them.

(Thanks, public service announcement over!)

*******

Trends Choices
2.00 (Advised 5^th March) 1 pt Forpadydeplasterer 11/2 (General)
(5^th Mar) 1 pt win Aigle d’Or (General)

2.35 (26^th Feb) 3 pts win Silverburn 10/1 (Victor Chandler)
(26^th Feb) 1 pt win Gold Medallist 44 (betfair) Non-Runner

3.15 (24^th Feb) 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
(24^th Feb) 2 pts Voy Por Ustedes 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)

4.00 (11^th March) 1.5 pts e/w Mendo (25/1 general)
(11^th March) 1 pt e/w Pyleigh Lady (50/1 Bluesq)

4.40 (11^th March) 1 pt win Back On Line (11 betfair)
(11^th March) 1 pt win Old Benny (16.5 betfair)
(11^th March) 1 pt win Pass It On (40/1 General)
(11^th March) 1 pt win King Of Angels (66/1 General)

5.20 (11^th March) 1 pt win Corkskeagh Royale (12/1 Skybet, betfair)
(11^th March) 1 pt win Drive On Regardles (33/1 Ladbrokes)
(11^th March) 1 pt win Pineau De Re (110 betfair)

Timeform Top Two
2.00 Breedsbreeze 154p / Aigle d’Or 152p
2.35 Albertas Run 160p / Joe Lively 158
3.15 Tamarinbleu 176 / Master Minded 173p
4.00 Leg Spinner 173+ / Whispered Promises 172
4.40 Ornais 155 / Here’s Johnny 149 / Back On Line 149
5.20 Corkskeagh Royale 138 / Zaarito 137p

‘p’ = potential for improvement; ‘+’ = might be better than quoted figure; ‘$’ = unreliable; ‘?’ = rating is suspect

Nap of the Day
3.15 Aigle d’Or (Henderson horses going very well)

Lay of the Day
2.35 Master Minded (just hope he gets back to the stable ok)

Avanti!

Matt

Undulating, dear reader, is the nature of the unique test that is Cheltenham racetrack. It is also a perfectly fitting way to describe the zeniths and nadirs of this blogger’s day.

Working a half day, and wending my way to the Brown Bear in Leman St, in a less salubrious corner of the City, to join my racing chums, I was enshrouded by a funk. I was feeling pessimistic, bordering on morbid.

I’m not sure why, but it may have had something to do with leaving my unmatched £400 on Sizing Europe overnight, and discovering I’d been matched at my requested 3.55 (just over 5/2), but that the horse was now trading at 3.8. Immaterial now of course, as it always is when I go ‘lumpy’.

Anyway, let’s get back to the start. A cup of tea and Guinness (its my way to stop getting too drunk too quick) down the track, and it was 2.00 and time for the first of six battles between man and orc (or bookmaker if you prefer).

An insoluble race with squillions of imponderables proved exactly that. Unless, of course, you backed Captain Cee Bee who, as fourth choice in the ring, was far from impossible to find. Naturally, I couldn’t find him. Nor could I find the 2nd or 3rd for my placepot - from six selections! - and the early bath ensued.

Incidentally, the trends pointed very strongly towards a 5 or 6yo winner. So, no surprise to see a 7yo beat a 4yo home! Ahem…

Bloodied but unbowed, we moved to the Arkle, a much easier race in which to find the winner, by dint of the smaller number of protagonists and the fact that the Irish couldn’t win this race if they started five minutes earlier.

My regular reader knows that I was strong on Tidal Bay and strongly against Noland. Long and short of it was that Tidal Bay was much too good for them, and Noland ran an excellent race in finishing third (surely he wants further?). The 10/1 ante post in the pocket.

Next up was the biggie, my biggie of the week, the Champion Hurdle, and the monster that is Sizing Europe. My lump safely in betfair’s escrow account, and happy that at least the price had contracted to 7/4, I settled in nervously to watch the race.

As it panned out, I actually felt vindicated and confident. He oozed class, and strolled up to the hare, Osana. But, in a few shortening strides, he went from heir apparent hero to problem apparent zero. I’m not sure if the form figure will be a ‘0′ for last place, or a ‘P’ for pulled up, but those layers can count themselves extremely fortunate in my book (Kev, you know you got lucky!!)

Take nothing away from ‘feline faeces’ (that’s Katchit to you), who remains my favourite jumps horse in training, and who has become the first Triumph Hurdle winner for forty years (!) to win the Champion Hurdle the following season, naturally as a 5yo. He is amazing, and his Cheltenham record of five wins and a second (when Osana arguably nicked the race at the start) from six starts is uncrabbable (new word).

As for me, well my staking plan is clearly the worst since Dracula discovered his very bad allergy to wood… (geddit?!)

Onwards and downwards, and my confidence battered, I looked to the William Hill Chase. Having backed Fier Normand, Mattock Ranger and King Harald ante post, only to discover none of the three turned up on the day, I recalled from the trends that An Accordion only blew out on account of being favourite.

Except of course that he wasn’t favourite. I only had £26 in my pocket, and I split it win and place on said nag. I also texted two mates and asked them to stick a score on for me. One was home, and obliged. The other was not, and did not.

No matter: the record shows that An Accordion won at 7/1 (I got the 15/2), and I had actually covered my losses from Sizing as well as the eighty I dropped on the opening race.

Rejuvenated by this revelation, we moved onto the fifth race of the day, and the each way steal of the meeting. Most runners in the cross country races are the equivalent of octogenarians hankering after the good old days (with due respect to any octogenarian readers, who may or may not hanker for bygone times), and it is quite easy to whittle the number down to something more manageable.

Moreover, weight is pretty much immaterial as they amble round the assortment of curious impediments that prevent this being four miles of dizzying rail chasing, and charge for the last half mile.

Hats off to Nina Carberry, who is an exceptionally talented jockey, from a family of the same. She won the race last year on Heads Onthe Ground, and she did so again this year on trends horse, Garde Champetre. I’d backed it already, but had another pony each way at the bookies. Never in doubt: a brilliant ride as well. And that is now the last three winners of the PP Hogan Memorial race at Punchestown who have come here to score.

So to the last and the handicap good thing, Ashkazar. Or was he? Now, I had already stated that this race was tricky and that the trends were not that enlightening (given that there had only been three previous runnings).

Funny then, that I put up Crack Away Jack, Ashkazar and Grand Schlem on the blog (as well as River Liane), and they provided the tricast for some (but not me). I did, though, top up my score on Jack with another £15 e/w on the winner (as well as £40 on the second and £15 e/w on the still running Chapoturgeon).

So at the end of the day, despite chucking four ton at another unfortunate (misjudged?) good thing, the trends have bailed me out to the tune of a decent sum, and I really ought not to lose on the week now. But it’s never as easy as that, is it?!

Onwards to day two, and - if you weren’t as lucky as me today - remember these fine words from Ben Stein, professor and author:

“The human spirit is never finished when it is defeated. It is finished when it surrenders.”

So don’t surrender today, for the early battles may be over, but the war is far from won or lost…

More Day Two trends later.

Matt