Sometimes, dear reader, it just seems to easy. Finding winners I mean… Too easy. Finding. Winners. Too. Easy…

Okay, sorry to labour the point, but it may just be as easy as it appears on this occasion (and, of course, given the ‘glorious uncertainty’ of what we do, it may not be).

Let me explain. I’ve been having a squint at the Arkle field and trends associated with the last ten winners.

There are some corkers, which cut the field down to a very manageable side very quickly. In fact, as I write, there is only ONE horse to back… which we’ll get to!

So, the trends.

9/10 Arkle winners had finished no lower than 2nd in any completed chase start. Goodbye half the field. :o)

Four 5yo winners, two 6yo winners, three 7yo winners, so 9/10 were 5-7yo’s. Let’s exclude the rest. Ciao ciao to a few more.

This is a race won 9/10 ten times by the ‘home’ team, so its a wonder the Irish Independent still sponsors it, given that the amazing Moscow Flyer was the only cross-Channel champion novice. So let’s lose the Irish and the French.

Not many left now.

8 out of ten had run two to four times over fences prior to the big day, which - unless he runs again between now and then - excludes Noland, the current 9/2 ante-post favourite.

Remaining candidates are:

Cedrus Libani
Leslingtaylor
Pur De Sivola
Tidal Bay

But…. all ten winners started at 11/1 or shorter (aside from Flagship Uberalles way back in 1999, the other nine winners were single figure odds). And, interestingly if you like Noland, only one favourite has won from the last ten.

So we’re looking for a 5-7yo, whose not finished lower than 2nd over fences, lightly raced, fancied in the betting but not the ‘jolly’, and came from the home team.

Step forward, Tidal Bay.

As I write, only Tidal Bay (10/1 generally) ticks all these boxes. Just touched off last year in the Supreme (now Ballymore Properties) Novices’ Hurdle by a horse I tipped here but didn’t bet (Massini’s Maguire, doh!), he has plenty of high class Cheltenham track form.

There is a chance that the horse will defect to the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase, but - given the limited strength in depth of the shorter contest - I’d be surprised and disappointed if the wager was lost before the day.

10/1 is perfectly fair. 2 points win only to add to our portfolio.

Portfolio to date

Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)

Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)

Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)

24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)

World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)

Don’t forget to tell your friends about the blog, and get TTS for free (see yesterday’s post for details). By the way, on that point, I’ve been disappointed that a couple of naughty people have abused this by setting up email addresses in their own names to get the guide. It’s worth having, but - please - treat me with a little respect. :o)

Until next time…

Matt