Welcome back, dear reader, and I trust that you are enjoying your Sunday funday.
As you may or may not be aware, there is another small equine jamboree taking place next Friday and Saturday on the Eastern Seaboard of the United States of America.
A few Europeans will turn up, though not as many as normal, and I shall pop along to give them my support.
Yes, that’s right, its Breeders’ Cup time again. Now that may not mean much to you, but - since 2001 - it has become something of an annual pilgrimage for me, to worship the great thoroughbreds of each season in a festival of horse-y sport that, I believe, surpasses even Longchamp in the first week of October and the summer UK festivals as the best flat racing meeting in the calendar (with the probable exception of Royal Ascot).
Since that bittersweet first sojourn to New York in October 2001 - bittersweet because it fell just six weeks after those scenes that suspended belief when two planes flew into Manhattan Skyscrapers - my love for the trip has grown unabated.
I know now, for instance, that the World Series is usually drawing to a close at the same time; that if we plan far enough ahead (we didn’t this year!) we can get to watch an American football game; that its very cold on the East coast around now, and very VERY cold in Chicago.
As I missed 2003, I can’t vouch for the weather in Santa Anita in late October, but - when BC returns to the West Coast next season, I’ll be sure and let you know.
So… to the racing. The track chosen this year is Monmouth Park, not one of the Premier League circuits by any stretch of will, but a pleasant enough oval, known to many as the most picturesque in the land. (I have to say that, having seen it on Attheraces Stateside, with the incorrigible Matt Chapman, it doesn’t look all that scenic to me. I wonder what they’d do with a Goodwood or a Chester!)
The dirt course, where most of the races will be run, is a tight circuit a mile in circumference. The turf track, where most European hopes lie, is inside the dirt track and - therefore - even tighter. Just seven furlongs around, and with a run in of little more than a furlong, its going to be nippy, athletic types who are ridden handy, and can accelerate that will prosper. MICK KINANE TAKE NOTE!!!
I have no real fancies in the dirt races, which are way too tough for me, and in which I usually test my prowess at the Pick 3 (select three consecutive winners, rather like a mini-jackpot), at which I’ve been pretty good / lucky in recent years. I find the ‘perm four in a race’ scattergun approach favours my punting style!
However, in the turf races, I have already made three significant investments. The first, as you may have seen from a previous post, is on Dylan Thomas in the Turf (at 7/4, now trading around 5/4). European horses have won seven of the last eight runnings of this race (including a dead heat), and I expect it to be eight from nine by this time next week.
Last year’s winner, Bryan Meehan’s Red Rocks, looks the biggest danger, and I’m happy again to dodge the best of the US contenders, English Channel.
DT looks to have a few lengths in hand of RR, with the rest nowhere. Only a muddling pace and / or bad positioning can scupper DT for me, and Johhny Murtagh - who will ride - is not called ‘Group One Johnny’ because he traditionally cocks these tactical things up. It will indeed be the delirium tremens (DT’s natch) for yours truly if this one gets beaten…
Elsewhere, the Mile on turf used to be another Euro benefit, but in the last few years things have changed. Less runners from across the pond, and some poor riding, has cost us dearly. Only Domedriver at a fat 26/1 has given me any cheer in this event in recent renewals, but I have high hopes for the Excellent Art (7/2, still available).
His European form perches him at the top of the tree against inferior US turf sorts, and again - granted a decent tactical ride - he’ll be very tough to beat. I’ve wagered accordingly.
Finally, and perhaps the most interesting race from a Euro perspective, is the Filly & Mares Turf. In the past, I’ve lumped on Ouija Board three times in this race and been paid out twice.
This year, I’ve had a very stout each way bet on ‘Sir’ Henry Cecil’s Passage of Time. I’m glad I’m on each way, as the more I look at the Euro’s, the more dangers I see. Any of All My Loving, Simply Perfect and - most concerning of all - Timarwa, could pass PoT, and there is also a rare plausible US contender in the win machine, Nashoba’s Key.
I have 6/1 (now best is around 5/1 generally, though she may drift) and three places, so I have at least a sporting chance of collecting the place part.
If you’re interested in Breeders Cup and betting on it, and you should be if you’ve read this far!), there is a shed load of excellent editorial, and a view of the approximate US odds at the link below. For $5 (about £2.50), you can also download all of the past performances for the meeting, which this season spans two days for the first time.
http://www.drf.com/bc/advance/bc_adv_data.html
A final note on this is that a Juvenile Turf race over a mile is one of the new races added on the Friday, and I have a pretty strong contention that this will also become a European benefit.
Domestic Fund (Dermot Weld), Achill Island (Aidan O’Brien) and Strike The Deal (Jeremy Noseda) all have at least half a stone in hand on the likely US favourite, Prussian.
I especially like Strike The Deal, although there is a doubt over his stamina at a mile. But I reckon all of these three will beat the Yanks, and if you have an account that will allow you, I urge you to play some penny permutations on the exotics (trifectas and superfectas). You might get rich on this one. (Then again…)
Finally, finally, look out for the non-BC races on the card - especially Friday. Last year, Gerard Butler snuck one in that won at very healthy odds, and we also copped the Pick 3 with it in. We saw Butler in a bar that night, and thanked him kindly. He was too p155ed to care…! Not for nothing is Mr Butler one of my favourite trainers…
To the races, make haste!
Matt