Greetings, dear reader, from your sometime correspondent here at Nag3.

Apologies for the delay in posting, and for the fact that this virtual space may be more sporadically populated with words of wit and wisdom (along with many other words that fit in neither of the aforementioned categories) over the next month or so.

The reason for this dereliction of blogging duty is that I have agreed to help a major charity involved in the marine business with a number of IT projects. My day job used to be as an IT project manager / consultant, and its good for me to ‘keep my arm in’ as it were. Also, the extra pennies are more than welcome!

So - if you don’t see a post for a day or two - accept my apologies, and I shall endeavour to ensure that when I do post, the content is deep and rich, like Donald Trump’s trouser pockets…

To racing… And is it just me or has the racing been thoroughly crap this week? I don’t know of a tipster on the planet who has managed to get his nose in front these last seven days, and I’m afraid that the Nag stable products are no exception.

September is a curious time for racing fans, with the turf flat season tapering out, and the fledgling jumps season taking its first tentative steps.

Although it’s tough to find winners at this time of year by looking at the form book, a decent alternative approach is to look at the trainer tables and current stable form. A good example is brilliant up and coming trainer, and my main man to follow this season, Brendan Powell.

Powell was an above average jockey who never quite made it to the top of that game. But his work ethic and horsemanship are quickly elevating him to the top of the training tree, and he is now getting wider recognition in the form of more horses and better quality horses.

This season will be a defining chapter in the career of B G Powell and I expect him to continue placing winners in both flat and jumps races throughout the winter. September is expected to be an excellent month for him.

Racing today is a mixed bag, with action at Stratford, Hereford and York, as well as two Group 3’s and a Group 1 at Longchamp.

Let’s start with Longchamp, and in the 2.55, a Group 3 for 2yo’s, John Gosden’s young pretender, Young Pretender, looks to have a fine chance after an extremely impressive debut at UK HQ. His trainer is no mug and never takes horses abroad for the day out. He’ll take some beating here and may then rise toward the peak of the Guineas ante-post lists for next season.

A win today may well see the Young Pretender line up for one of the big season finales, either the Dewhurst or the Racing Post Trophy, for which he is entered in both.

But the main event across La Manche is the Prix du Moulin, a Group 1 over a mile. Its a belting contest, with the lineup featuring winners of no fewer than 24 Group races, eleven of them Group 1’s! Indeed the only non-winner of a Group race has finished runner up in the French Derby and the Prix Jacques le Marois on his last two starts!

The three main protagonists are ‘Gorgeous’ George Washington, ‘Ravishing’ Ramonti, and the deliciously delightful 3yo filly, Darjina.

If you’re expecting a tip from me, here it is. Watch the race; enjoy the azure sanguine (that’s blue blood!) on parade; and don’t be surprised if there’s a shock result. (If I had to take one at a price, I’d back Halocene - the non-Group race winner - each way at Tote’s 22/1).

On the domestic front, there’s nothing to get especially excited about, but a few who should go well and will carry my small stakes are as follows:

Fontwell
2.10 Royal Tender (throwaway each way stake at 33/1, just because it’s that man Powell)

3.15 Mickey Pearce (in a race full of dodgy characters, I like the horse who has won two from his last three, albeit in sellers, and he’s an each way price to boot at around 16/1. And of course Mickey Pearce was one of Rodney’s dodgy mates in Only Fools And Horses…)

4.20 Terramarique (did TTS punters a favour last season, and his win to run ratio (8 from 21) makes him the kind of trier I always like on my side)

4.50 Watch this race! Gordon Elliot - winner of the Grand National for Nag3 followers last season with the 33/1 legend Silver Birch - tipped here at 100/1! - has another formerly high class animal in Salford City. If you think you know the name, its because he finished fifth in the Derby three years ago. Elliot is rapidly making a name for himself as a man who can rejuvenate flagging equine spirits and, while I couldn’t entertain betting this one at 1/2, I will hope he wins.

Stratford
4.45 Pip’s Assertive Way - course specialist who has won here albeit in selling class. In a race with few decent sorts, 25/1 is tempting from an each perspective. His trainer, A W Carroll, has four in the race!

York
3.25 Zennerman - Jamie Spencer on board for Kevin Ryan. Horse ran well from a poor draw at Beverley last time, and the strong low draw bias here on the round course gives trap 5 a great chance. High Ambition should also run well from the 1 box. Lay any or all of the horses drawn 12+.

Just a quick reminder that if you want to take advantage of the special pricing for TTS, I’ve extended the deadline until tomorrow (as I haven’t had a chance to remind people until now), so check it out here.

Until next time…
Matt

Greetings, dear reader, and what a wonderful Thursday this promises to be. The sun is shining, it’s nearly Friday, and my favourite dog of all time is running at Salisbury.

As regular readers will know, I love to hate Munsef. He is a talented but slothish individual who could lose a walkover. Good news is that we can lay the life out of him! And I typically do. Today will be no exception.

Wednesday, dear reader, is half way to Friday… And it’s been a pretty quiet week on the racing front really.

I managed to put up a couple of nice winners here yesterday (Lovelace, 9/2; Felinious, 2/1), got touched off with War Of The Roses at 12/1 (2nd), and laid the living daylights out of Prince Valentine (3rd and now 0 from 8 in Class 7 races and still hasn’t won on the all weather, 9/4F).

Today, racing is at York, Kempton, Lingfield (for the third day in a row!), and Hereford.

I like the look of a couple at Hereford, one of which is the TTS runner today, whose name shall go unspoken.

The other features on the TTS ‘undercard’ (i.e. the appendix list of the 142 trainers with strong records but who didn’t quite make the main guide). This horse is trained by Seamus (J W) Mullins, and is Terrible Tenant, in the handicap chase at 3.55.

‘Yer man’ Seamus has had 7 winners from 19 runners with his older horses (7yo+) here, when they’ve been 14/1 or shorter in the market (as all TTS runners must be), and in races between September and April (the TTS season).

I like the TT to take the chequered flag today… (never mind Terrible Tenant, that was a Terrible Pun!)

Get hold of TTS now, with special offers all over the place, by clicking here.

Elsewhere, at Kempton tonight, Raise The Goblet (8.50) looks an each way bet to nothing to beat the favourite, who has it to prove on the polytrack surface in my opinion. Care with non-runners however, as there is currently a ‘dead 8′ for this. One out, and we’ll lose an each way place.

Glencal look solid in the 3.45 at Lingfield, with second favourite Shaded Edge, drawn in the car park (14).

But the best race of the day is the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York, where Echo Of Light will be a warm order under Frankie Dettori. Connections won the race last year with the same horse, and he takes on 2005 winner Mullins Bay again.

Given that nine of the last ten runnings of the race have been won by 3 or 4yo’s, I’ll swerve them both in search of some value.

Nothing bigger than 8/1 has won in the last decade and, indeed, the second longest price was just 11/2, so don’t be expecting too much of a shock.

Just using those stats makes it a two horse race between Royal Oath and Formal Decree. But the somewhat specialist trip of nine furlongs swings my view strongly in favour of Formal Decree, who followed up a win in the Cambridgeshire over the same distance, with two more nine furlong wins in Dubai.

He looks good value at a best priced 9/2, and will not want for effort from the saddle with Kerrin McEvoy booked.

G’luck!

Matt

As you may know, dear reader, Sedgefield is the former constituency of our formerly esteemed (depending on your view, ahem) leader, Mr T Blair.

Never much of a jockey (much more of a trainer type), Blair was oft seen at the track prior to getting the top job, when opportunities to pass time in his own part of the world became much more limited.

Why am I telling you all this? Because the racing season starts at Sedgefield today of course! Sedgey, as I call it, has always been a favourite track of mine, and for no particular reason.

I do fondly remember, however, when I was first getting interested in horse racing, watching the horses roll down that hill and back up the other side on the far side of the course (and watching the terrified Flossie’s charging away from the fence!), and I remember watching countless of John Wade’s horses in the maroon with the white hoops on the sleeves win or run well.

Interesting to note that, while he has no runners today, he sponsors one of the races. A true Sedgefield institution is Mr Wade.

From a punting perspective, there’s unlikely to be any TrainerTrackStats ‘main stage’ action. But from those that missed the final cut, one to look out for may be Welsh Dream in the 5.15. Mrs S E Forster does rather well with her older handicappers (6 from 25, when 14/1 or shorter, for 23.25 units profit over the last five years).

As good as she does though, she’s only good enough for a place ‘on the bench’ in TTS.

My Sedgey fancies today are:

2.20 Roman Army e/w (Windfola at a HUGE price is definitely worth a second look)
4.05 Felinious (quite strong fancy)

Elsewhere today, and there’s a pretty decent card at Goodwood, including the Group 3 Supreme Stakes, a 7f contest for 3yo’s and upwards. This is a new race in the calendar and, as such, there are no trends to go with.

The one I like is the progressive Lovelace, from the Mark Johnston yard. He’s a front running sort on a track that seems to favour prominent racers, and Johnston’s record at the track is exemplary. His record in September at the track is even better, and his record with 7f types is better still.

The (bad) draw should be irrelevant, if - as I expect - he gets out and tries to make all. Lovelace has already been cut to 7/2, and could become something of a gamble. With Spencer riding, as long as he goes from the front, this is the one they have to beat.

At Leafy Lingfield, Silent Storm (3.55) looks underrated, even if he is better over a furlong further. There’s likely to be plenty of pace on here, and he could scoot through late to reward each way support at around 20/1.

Also, War Of The Roses (4.30) catches the eye with Dane O’Neill booked to ride, and the step up in trip could favour this son of brilliant middle distance’r Singspiel. Again, place money may be gotten at around 16/1.

I’m against Prince Valentine in the 5.05. He’s been beaten in no fewer than seven of these Class 7 races, and has never won on the all weather (indeed, he’s only 2 from 49 in his career, both at Brighton). He might win, but the chances are he’ll find one or two too good, as ever.

Don’t forget that there’s a special offer on TrainerTrackStats right now, which I’ll hold until the end of the weekend. So if you want read more about that, click here and get in before close of play Sunday, when the prices will increase.

Happy Tuesday!
Matt

Monday, dear reader, another Monday. And the racing I’m afraid to say is as uninspiring as the prospect of five days at the office…

Regular readers will know that I have a phobia to betting on Mondays, as the racing seems to be pants and personally I just can’t find winners. Given that every race, no matter how bad, has a winner, it’s the latter point that’s a lot more pertinent than the former.

The weekend saw the start of the TrainerTrackStats season, with racing at Newton Abbot and Market Rasen.

We went very close at Newton Abbot with our sole representative, Forest Green, who - to my biased eye at least - should have won the big chase at 5/1. He was badly baulked a couple of times on the final circuit and then was given a less than polished ride by his amateur rider to get caught on the run-in, thus finishing second. (Again, regular readers know my views on amateur riders…!)

At Market Rasen yesterday, there were no such hard luck stories. Those of you who looked in the appendix to TrainerTrackStats will have noted that JJ Quinn is worthy of a second glance at Rasen (amongst others), and he duly obliged with his only runner at 7/1.

That was a side show however, and the main man at the track, Peter Bowen, was disappointing. Its interesting to note that the jockey he employed yesterday (Paddy Merrigan) is 1 from 22 for Bowen, whereas usual first choice T J O’Brien has a much healthier 16 from 83 record this year. Hindsight etc…

Now then, I wonder if you’ll indulge me for a moment, while I take a trip down Memory Lane to this time last year. After a similarly frustrating start to the season, on 6th September, Montevideo strolled home at 7/1 at Uttoxeter to register TTS’ first winner of the season. There was then a break in the jump racing action until 17th September, when Marc Of Brilliance romped home at 8/1.

But nothing could compare with the truly amazing day we had on 21st September. The results were as follows:

21/09/2006 Fontwell Irish Whispers 1st 12 £240
21/09/2006 Fontwell Sonoma 1st 10 £200
21/09/2006 Fontwell Eljay’s Boy 1st 4 £80
21/09/2006 Fontwell Saby 3rd 12 -£20
21/09/2006 Perth Glingerbank 1st 0.67 £13
21/09/2006 Perth Knowhere 1st 2 £40
21/09/2006 Perth Billyandi 1st 1.38 £28
21/09/2006 Perth Scribano Eile 1st 1.25 £25
21/09/2006 Perth Thai Vango 1st 1.38 £28

Indeed, Saby, the only beaten horse, finished 3rd in the race that Eljay’s Boy won!

As phenomenal and freakish as that day was, the rest of September was pretty special too, with the following results to the end of the month:

24/09/2006 Huntingdon Astyanax 1st 3.5 £70
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Toss The Caber 3rd 5 -£20
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Terramarique 1st 1.88 £38
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Rakalackey 3rd 3.5 -£20
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Ameeq 1st 0.54 £11
26/09/2006 Sedgefield Three Mirrors 2nd 11 -£20
28/09/2006 Hereford L’Eau Du Nil 3rd 1.75 -£20
29/09/2006 Hexham Shiwawa 1st 0.5 £10
29/09/2006 Hexham Linagram 2nd 5.5 -£20
30/09/2006 Fontwell Fairl’ Express 1st 8.5 £170

Now of course that kind of form is unsustainable, but 13 winners from 19 runners and the remaining six in the frame is testament to the incredible advantage that these stats can offer.

And with prices like 12/1, 10/1 and 17/2 amongst the shorter priced winners, that’s pretty special.

Indeed, and I’m just entertaining a whimsy here, if you’d managed to do a £5 accumulator (or 2, to cover the race with two runners) on the 21st September (I wish!), you’d have come away with no less than £268,017.75. Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!

Ok, history lesson over. I’m sure you can see why I’m sharing this with you, so it just remains for me to point you in the direction of the current version for season 2007/8.

A quick reminder of the bottom line, based on 5 years of stats, but focusing on last year’s results for the nominated trainers.

Financially, backing all TTS horses at SP last season would have returned a profit - to £20 stakes - of £11,150. Now I obviously can’t promise that the trainers will perform so well this season, but if they only do a quarter as well, that’s still more than £2,750 profit at SP.

If using an exchange such as Betfair, where odds are on average 16% higher, you would have returned over £12,000, after paying commission.

TTS horses won on average 35.51% of the time last season, and were placed in the first three a staggering 62.89% of the time. That means over one in three runners was a winner, and almost two out of every three runners was placed.

TO GET YOUR COPY

To get your copy, simply go to the relevant section below, depending on whether you’ve bought or subscribed to either TrainerTrackStats or TrainerFlatStats before, and select the option that suits you best. [I know I don't have to say this, but if you've never been a member and you select the Existing Customer option, your access will be revoked amid embarrassment for both of us...]

NEW CUSTOMER

If you have never been a member of either TFS or TTS, please click here.

EXISTING CUSTOMER

If you have already been a member of either TFS or TTS, please click here.

The jumping action continues tomorrow at Sedgefield…

Don’t miss out - get your copy now!
Matt