Friday afternoon here in Sriracha (pronounced Silaatcha), dear reader, and the merriment is almost at an end.
Later this pm I will return to Bangkok, with lady friend and her friends, and meet up with my other mates for a one night only riot in the city! Then tomorrow back to UK.
While I’ve been out here, I’ve been re-reading (for the third time) Andrew Beyer’s amazing book, ‘Picking Winners’. If you’re in any way serious about your betting – and lets face it, you don’t read this for my wit and repartee! – try and get a copy of this on ebay or amazon (I reckon it’ll cost about five quid or so).
The book has reminded me of some really important fundamental principles, and I’ll be finishing the US vs UK form analysis piece based predominantly on what I’ve read. That should be ready next week some time, so keep your peepers peeled!
Onto Saturday’s action, which includes a memorable QE II Stakes. As with most of the major races this season, it seems, I’ll be away when the race unfolds and will therefore miss the action. I am a huge fan of Ramonti, who I believe has not received the credit he deserves for persistent Group 1 winning performances.
But ‘The Italian Stallion’ is up against a special one of Mourinho proportions in Darjina. She got the verdict quite convincingly on home turf in the Prix du Moulin over Ramonti, and I don’t envisage this away leg precluding an impressive double. She is banker material for me (which is unfortunate given tomorrow’s TFS runners…)
To be honest, I can’t see anything else getting within lengths of these two, but I’m usually wrong on such matters!
Onto tomorrow’s selections, and a plethora of qualifiers at Market Rasen are joined by an elite flat gathering:
TrainerFlatStats Ascot 4.20 Blue Ksar Ramonti
Haydock 5.20 Green Wadi
TrainerTrackStats Market Rasen 1.35 Our Choice 2.40 Prestbury Knight 3.15 Iron Man Always Waining 3.45 Decisive 4.25 Pigeon Island 5.00 Apollo Creed
No Friday Fun this week due to lack of access to comedy archives, but I may have a treat for you next week in that space… Remember the classic Office scene where Ricky Gervais does his crazy dance? Well, I’ve been captured on candid camera doing something not dissimilar and, assuming it isn’t irredeemably incriminating, I will share it for your amusement.
To Friday’s fare, dear reader, and – your god willing – a change of fortune…
TFS Haydock 3.20 Legendary Guest
TTS Lingfield 2.209 Sunset Boulevard
Laying System Lingfield 2.55 Almizan
In Sriracha today, a fishing village on the Eastern seaboard. Spending time with my lady friend and her two female friends, who are reminiscing about ‘the good old days’. As you can imagine, it’s riveting…. ahem.
Wow, dear reader, this place is really crazy. I’ve been talking to a lovely girl for most of the night. Turns out she’s a ‘he’!!! Good job I’m on best behaviour until my girlfriend arrives next week. Very dangerous territory!
No TTS qualifiers No Laying System qualifiers
TFS, subject to being 14/1 or shorter, as follows:
Catterick 2.25 Tawzeea
Newbury 2.35 Berbice
2.45 Two Timer 3.55 Warm Embraces 4.30 Hot Diamond Art Investor
Good evening, dear reader, and welcome to a midweek post from yours truly.
Two things on the agenda for this evening’s meeting (sorry, corporate Britain is biting me hard, even in the charity sector!):
1. My impending trip and why it’s good news for you 2. Why the draw just pays and pays to follow
Let’s start with news of yet another sojourn for your humble scribe. Yes, I have had enough of working after just two weeks and am off to recover in the exotic surroundings of Thailand. Never having been further in Asia than Brick Lane, I am very excited about the culture shock to which I am to be introduced.
My travelling companions are a mixed bunch, and include the current leader of the Nag Fantasy Football League. He also happens to edit the national weekly shares magazine, entitled – imaginatively enough – Shares (!)
There will be five of us travelling and, as I can’t take my laptop for security reasons (i.e. I am likely to be in various states of inebriation and don’t trust myself not to lose it…), I will be posting qualifiers for TrainerFlatStats, TrainerTrackStats and Laying System here on the blog each day.
The second point I wanted to raise is a hardy perennial topic in the summer months on here, and relates to the draw. Yet again, Beverley has shown its favouritism for high draws in the sprint races today, as I collected with Malapropism.
He was drawn highest of all, had won this summer in the same class and at the trip, has a handy running style and won by an unequivocal four lengths! Of course, this is hindsight as I write, but that was exactly my rationale when I placed the bet. 7/2 was a generous payoff.
The point here is a general one, rather than clever old Matt bet another winner and is bragging about it.
Look at draw biases and exploit them.
Here are a few starters for ten:
Chester – low draw in the sprints Beverley – high draw in the sprints Chepstow – high draw up to a mile Goodwood – high draw at 7f and a mile Ripon – high draw in sprints Catterick – low draw in sprints
For next season, I will produce a full review of draw biases. For now though, keep looking out for the favoured positions and back the fancied horses who can make the best of their draw. That is, don’t bother if your horse is well drawn but does not race handily – if he’s got to come through horses, he’ll likely find trouble in running.
Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to a brief Sunday service, the main point of which is to tell you what I think of the recently much-publicised Racing Investment Formula.
Despite the rather grand title, this is a horse racing system based on market strength. Depending on the number of runners and the fluctuations – both inward and outward – of the market principles, there is a series of system rules.
The guide comes with a little spreadsheet application (with a download link to a compatible spreadsheet software program in case you don’t have Microsoft Excel).
This is how it works: about half an hour before the race starts, you enter the name (or number if you prefer shorthand!) of the top half dozen or so horses in the race (the system only focuses on the top end of the market, where all the money is).
You then enter their betfair odds. Then, a couple of minutes before the off, you enter the prices at that time. The spreadsheet calculates the difference in the ’rounds’ of the horses (see my previous post for an explanation of ’rounds’), and where there is a marked movement one way or the other, a system rule will apply.
Whether the horse is to be backed to win or place, or to lose or not be placed, depends on the number of runners and the market change.
The rules are pretty simple to follow, though in my opinion they could have been worded more clearly.
I trialled the system today on the first seven races of the day, and the results were as follows:
Profit to £100
Cave Of The Giant
Lawyer Des Ormeaux
£128.20 profit (after taking out 5% commission) is not bad for an hour and a half sat watching the racing!
Some points with this system, which may be clear from the above.
1) Back selections are pretty short odds, but are strongly fancied – as the market movement indicates.
2) Lay selections will have drifted heavily in the immediate run up to the race. (There were no drifters to note today).
3) You will need to be able to spend some time at the computer, as for any race you play on, you’ll need to monitor the market a half hour before the race as well as closer to the ‘off’.
4) The system can be used as regularly or rarely as you are able to use it – each race is an individual event. So if you’re a Saturday racing fan only, this might be of interest.
Overall, though the trial was only on a small number of races, I like the approach of the product. It comes with all the information you need, but you might need to spend a few races practicing (i.e. paper trading) prior to striking your first wager. This will help you get your head round the system rules, which are not difficult, but are – in my opinion – poorly written.
The system comes with a money back guarantee, so if its not your cup of tea, you get your dough back.
Overall, based more on the approach than the results (although I didn’t witness a losing bet, the sample is too small to be categorical, especially with the price of the selections), I like this system, and would recommend those readers with time enough to watch the market give it a whirl. Note, you don’t need to constantly monitor the race market: you just need to check 20-30 minutes before, and then just before the ‘off’ when you’ll strike a wager on any qualifiers.
Hello, dear reader, and welcome to another occasional posting from yours truly.
If you, like me, have been bombarded with emails regarding the latest system from the farm of Stephen Brookes, then I’ve got some news for you…
I’ve had a read of the system, and it basically uses changes in the betfair market to inform some system rules.
The concept of overround’s will be familiar to some of you but not to others, so I’ll briefly explain here:
- A book is the total market on a horse race, with a price quoted for each runner - A book making up 100% would be considered round - If the book is less than 100% it is underround - If the book is more than 100% it is overround - To calculate the round of a book, you simply: – Work out how much you’d need to stake on each horse to return £100 (including stake) – Add up all the amounts - If the number is greater than 100, as it invariably is, this is the overround.
e.g. 3 horse race (for simplicity sake), betting as follows:
A 6/4 B 2/1 C 2/1
£40 bet on A will return £100 including the stake; £33.33 bet on B will return £100; £33.33 bet on C will return £100.
40 + 33.33 + 33.33 = 106.66%
OK, with me so far? Good. Usually, the markets on betfair trade at around 101-102%, meaning that you are getting very fair odds. (If the market is less than 100%, you could – in theory at least – back all horses and guarantee a profit).
RIF looks at the difference in the individual horse rounds between the off time (or a minute before) and half an hour prior to a race. For instance, if Alpha Omega was trading on betfair at 3.0 or 2/1 30 minutes before the off, and was then trading at 6/4 or 2.5 a minute before the off, the round would have gone from 33.33 (for 2/1, see above example) to 40 (for 6/4, again see example above).
The difference here of 6.67 would equate to a system rule in RIF.
Although this sounds complicated, it actually isn’t in practice, especially with the spreadsheet software provided. You just enter the numbers half an hour before, and shortly before, the off respectively, and all the maths is done for you. You then look at the differentials (calculated for you) and identify the appropriate system qualifier.
Incidentally, the system may tell you to bet to win or bet to place, or to lay the win or place.
So, that’s what it does… but does it work?!
Erm… I don’t know, as I’ve been doing this blooming charity management gig all week, and will be tomorrow. Allied to this is the fact that I’m playing footy on Saturday (I play for Southgate County on Saturdays in the London Old Boys League. We’re rubbish!!!)
But on Sunday, I will trial the system on half a dozen races and appraise you of how the system performs.
Personally, I’d wait: let me try it out before you spend any cash…
Onto the racing, and of course the St Leger is this Saturday. Before that though, Doncaster hosts the Flying Childers Stakes for 2yo’s tomorrow. The race has extra resonance this year, as it will be the first time since his cruel extradition that Spirit of Sharjah has run.
In case you’re not familiar with the story, Sharjah was trained by the trainer of my (bit of) horse, Julia Feilden, until the owner – a man who’d never won a race prior to saddling up with Julia – decided to move the horse to Peter Chapple-Hyam.
Julia, after all, had only chosen the horse and picked it up for a song, landed a very nice touch (16/1 into 10/1) on debut, then won a listed race, with the horse.
After that, Sharjah finished third to the mighty Winker Watson at Royal Ascot, before disappointing a touch at the Newmarket July meeting. Last time out, he ran pretty well at Glorious Goodwood (being the only horse except Kingsgate Native – subsequent winner of a Group 1 against older horses! – drawn in double figures to finish in the top ten in that race, and from a much worse draw than the Native).
So, I’m afraid I have to hope for a disappointing run from Sharjah. I wish the horse no ill of course, but if he never wins another race, this scribe will feel some justice has been done.
TrainerTrackStats continues tomorrow with a couple of runners at Bangor, for which I am hopeful, though the racing does look pretty competitive there.
Finally, a little premature for some of you (as it’s Thursday evening as I write this), here is some Friday Fun to keep you entertained at the end of the week…
This week, another spot of self-indulgence, with my favourite sitcom of all time, Fall and Rise of Reginal Perrin (I know, I’m showing my age…!). These are classic moments, and if you enjoy them half as much as me, you’ll be laughing heartily before long.
Good weekend, and I’ll let you know about Racing Investment Formula on Sunday.
Good morning, dear reader, and just time to remind you that if you want the special offers associated with TrainerTrackStats, the statistical jumps guide showing trainer profitable sub-trends, you need to act today.
I will remove the pages with the offers on this evening, so please don’t miss out if you’re interested.
One runner, one winner yesterday, with Cape Greko obliging at 4/1 for Brendan Powell, ‘the man’.