“Tell me why I don’t like Mondays”, squealed Sir Bob Geldof, a few years before he screamed, “Give us your f*cking money!”.

But with the latter expression, dear reader, he could have been a bookmaker answering the former question for me.

As of today, slightly after the horse has bolted, I am now closing the stable door at Monday Barn.

I’ve had it with Mondays from a betting perspective: regular readers will know that I’ve been wary of them for some time, and now I’m conceding defeat. I’ve added three new rules to my rules list after a(nother) Black Monday.

1. NEVER BET HORSES ON A MONDAY
2. NEVER BET HORSES ON A MONDAY
3. NEVER BACK OR LAY IN AMATEUR RACES.

There is no question that amateur rider races have had a major impact on the bottom line for Laying System this season, and yesterday’s Windsor affair - though brutal in itself - was also a defining moment.

The 9/1 winner was a lay for me, when I don’t normally lay at longer than 4/1. I’d reasoned that he couldn’t win, being a fully exposed 11 year old in a field of faster younger better ridden horses. Well, long story short, I was wrong, and I paid out one unit for every year old the horse was as a result.

A painful experience, especially on the back of Celtic on Sunday. It’s been a tough couple of days.

No matter, for I very rarely go to the odds that Celtic were, and I will now never find myself in the situation I did with Wait For The Will (at this rate, there’ll be nothing left in the will!).

I don’t know about you, but for me, Monday is now a ‘no fly zone’. I will endeavour to fill the space here with some racing related info on the first day of each week, but don’t expect a tip.

Enough already…

Back later with some football predictions (Premier League will not be a surprise, and League Two which is a little more interesting I think), and a review of Racing Systems Revolution (just in time for the next product on the Steven Lee Jones conveyor belt to be released: step forward the Racing Members Club, for which you may well have already seen emails).

There’s also an update on Paul’s Winning Racing Tips, which are getting closer to the bullseye but still struggling to beat the odds on jollies.

Matt

Never any danger of a strike here, dear reader, so today’s second post brings you the Winning Racing Tips selection for the day:

Windsor 8.00 Hibiki (10/1 with Bet365 / Betfred / BoyleSports)

Also, a quick reminder that if you want to carry on receiving the Laying System selections (12 losers out of the last 13, the winner being odds on), then click here.

Until next time… Matt

Good morning, dear reader, and welcome back to Nagsville.

After a terrible (terrible!) start when proofing up on here, my Laying System has reverted to type and has delivered a very pleasing 12 losing (and therefore winning) lays from the last thirteen.

You can see the full results for the service since its inception here.

If you’d like to receive these lays on a daily basis, now is the time to sign up for an extra two week trial.

To do this, click here and sign up. It will cost you nothing, and you have a full fortnight to trial before deciding whether you wish to continue receiving the selections.

Something free at the start of the week to mitigate the disaster of it being Monday!

The weekend’s action saw the draw throw up something of a surprise with middle numbers being strongly favoured in the Stewards Cup.

Aside from the winner, who quickened well, the two horses to take from the race are definitely Knot In Wood and Balthazaar’s Gift.

Knot In Wood used a lot of energy to get across to the middle, and stuck on pretty resolutely to hold third place.

Balthazaar’s Gift, carrying top weight, was never really put in the race until too late, and quickened impressively to take fifth, just failing to sneak into the places. He is definitely a Group class sprinter and - in my opinion - was the best horse in the race.

The best horse (or filly as I should more correctly refer) on the day was unquestionably Peeping Fawn. She smashed a multiple Group 1 race-winning field to pieces in a good time on ground that she probably didn’t enjoy.

If she goes for the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf race, she will be my bet of the year. And I mean that seriously. She’s the best in Europe and pretty much any filly in the race on Saturday could win a BC F&M Turf against the Yanks.

Peeping Fawn in that race is what’s known Stateside as a “Five Star Lock”! You heard it here first.

Monday’s mundane action is nothing to get too excited about, but later on I’ll be trialling RSR for the last day and will present a review of the system tomorrow. I’ve found it a pretty interesting product, I have to say.

And I’ll continue to post Paul’s Winning Racing Tips here throughout this week. He’s been a bit unlucky since I started proofing them, inasmuch as all the horses he’s tried to oppose with each way value alternatives, have gone and won! That’s untypical and I’m expecting normal service to be resumed this week.

What it does illustrate however is that even the top man in the tipping charts can have a bad run.

And, as I never tire of saying, after a bad run, expect a good run.

Lastly, just time to mention the Fantasy Football. Having burned myself badly backing Celtic at 1-4 yesterday (what was I thinking?!!!), and then watching the second half of the Community Shield, I am now starting to get excited about the impending season.

I’ll be posting my thoughts on the teams to back in the respective divisions this week, and you can get in on the Fantasy League by entering your team here:

http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

And the league registration code: 533724-97750

Its free to enter, and fun to play.

Back later with Paul’s top tips for today.

Matt

Quick Sunday post for you, dear reader…

Five out of six again yesterday on the placepot, meaning that I suffered that fate every single day last week. At least the only big pot is the one where I wasn’t kicking myself for leaving one of the frame runners out.

Another beaten lay yesterday making it nine from the last ten (the winner being a 10/11 shot).

Today, I’m going to try to get the following rolled over:

Newbury
2.10 Sharmy
3.50 Mont Etoile
4.55 Candy Mountain

Matt

Quick update with my last chance at the placepot this week, and also Paul’s e/w selections:

Each-Way Value:(1 pt each way unless stated otherwise)
3.05 Windsor Vogarth @ 9/1 0.5pt e/w (Totesport)
7.00 Lingfield Princess Lomi @ 8/1 0.5pt e/w (General)

And Matt’s (i.e. my!) placepot horses:

2.15 Fongs Gazelle / Fourteenth
2.50 Dubai’s Touch / Traffic Guard / Italian Girl / Rahiyah
3.20 Light Shift
3.55 Balthazaar’s Gift / Knot In Wood / Viking Spirit
4.30 Belgrave Square / Cool Judgement
5.05 Monaazalah / Dark Tara / Atabaa’s Pride / Deal Flipper

192 @ 20p = £38.40. Wish me luck!

Matt

Hello again, dear reader, and as my hangover dissipates, let me tell you a little about the clearing haze from yesterday.

A truly glorious day greeted me and my five drinking and punting pals (actually two were on the water, but that dilutes the story somewhat!)

Meeting at Victoria Station at 9.15am seemed somewhat of a premature rendez-vous time. However, as it turned out, it was a fine plan. By taking an early train, we arrived early (shortly before midday) at the course, and were able to take our pick of the fantastic facilities in the Gordon Enclosure.

We pitched up for the afternoon around a nice little table adjacent to the parade ring and, more significantly given that there wasn’t a paddock judge among the six of us, adjacent to the bar.

It was a heavy drinking day, but a light punting day, mostly. My 576 line placepot (yes, you read that right!) suffered the ultimate ignominy of first race early bath, when my two selections finished fourth and fifth (Perfectperformance and High Top).

In my embarrassed annoyance I passed up a bet in the next race, where my mate Tim had been telling us all “seven out of the last ten winners were drawn in the highest box, and another won from there but was dispualified”.

Of course, I’m a high draw evangelist myself at Goodwood, and - obviously - Wake Up Maggie featured in my doomed ‘pot.

Well, she won easily, and those boys collected at odds of 14/1 down to 11’s. Bugger.

The next race and my bet of the day. Arguably a somewhat curious race to strike your bet of the day: a seemingly fiercely competitive 19 runner handicap. And yet, I’d made it a three horse race between River Tiber, King Of Argos and - my nap - Third Set.

These horses came 1st, 3rd and 4th, and my two score at 3’s paid for the beers on a light punting afternoon.

More annoyance was to follow when I decided that I wanted 8’s on Strike The Deal, and ‘only’ 15/2 was available. My feigned smugness at my own tremendous discipline quickly turned to chagrin as the Striker romped away with it, and all my mates laughed at me because they’d backed it. Ba5tards.

By the way, the dead placepot had had three winners to follow the failure in the first, and a fourth winner was to come next, again without my money on it.

My three in the nursery were Golden Penny, Meeriss and Coasting. I backed Golden Penny, who I believe may still be running. The other two finished 1st and 3rd.

In the insoluble penultimate handicap, I took four big priced horses against the field, and Oranmore Castle almost gave me a 110/1 payout for a fiver on the Tote. Ran a cracking race before fading. I had Indian Trail twice (one for the non-runner going on the favourite) in the placepot, meaning I’d have had it for 80p.

To be honest, I couldn’t believe it when it only paid £99, as I thought it was a pretty tough ‘pot to get. And I was thrilled that my ‘nearly won’ dividend was so miserly.

Four days running now I’ve had five out of six.

The final insult on the punting front came in the last, when again I took four against the field (including 3rd, 4th - 20/1 Jarvis’ other runner! - and 6th), and failed to include Marozi, the horse whom I’d put up an almightily ballsy ‘back’ cry when it ran a stinker last time. See blog post on 23rd July, when I said,

“Over at Windsor tonight, where low numbers have the call in soft ground sprints, I really fancy the unexposed Marozi. I think Michael Jarvis is an excellent trainer, and this horse’s soft ground second last season looks good enough in the context of this race.

Given that many of the horses he beat that day are now rated higher than his mark of 80, and that he also has a Group 1 entry, he looks a generous price at around 7/4 at betfair. I was expecting this horse to be trading at around even money against pretty exposed opposition.

Maybe I’ll have the proverbial albumen on physiognomy (or egg on face, if you will) later, but I reckon this is a standout wager. The slight cautionary temperance is that getting stuck in on a Monday is generally not a good idea, in my experience. Nevertheless, I’ll fight my early week reticence on this occasion.”

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

I could and probably should have had five winners yesterday. I had one, which at least was correctly staked, and got p155ed. Not a terrible outcome by any means!

The rest of the day passed in a haze - I took the 1911 train back to London, on a ridiculously circuitous route via Hove and Haywards Heath (are Southern the worst train company in the world?! Why don’t they put on Festival Raceday Special trains?)

Got into London around 9, and headed straight into Shoreditch for more drinking. Rolled in rolling drunk at 3 this morning, and I’m feeling remarkably good on it. ( I may still be drunk!)

Yesterday’s lays fared ok with a 10/11 winner and two losers, meaning we’ve now had a much more respectable eight from the last nine turned over.

Today, there is only one, which I’m a little twitchy about: Cosmic Art in the 3.35 at Newmarket.

Paul’s each way tips also fared disappointingly yesterday, with all the short ones he tried to oppose winning:

Mr Wiseguy 3rd at 4/1 (-0.2 points)
Silver Mitzva 4th at 15/2 (-1 point)
Papillio 3rd at 7/1 (+0.16 points)
Ridge Dance 6th at 14/1 (-0.4 points)

Total -1.44 on the day.

The Stewards’ Cup is the big handicap of the day, and one of the big handicaps of the season. It’s quite a strong trends race, and the following are usually important pointers:

Seven of the last ten winners have come from stall 19 or higher.

Nine of the last ten winners also had an official handicap rating of at least 92

Eight carried at least 8-10

Eight finished in the first three last time out.

Alas, all carry 8-10 or more today, and all are rated more than 92, so that doesn’t help!

However, high drawn horses placed last time out gives us the following shortlist:

Balthazaar’s Gift, Knot In Wood, Viking Spirit.

Conscious that a low drawn horse could blow us out, I’ll nevertheless side with this three off the tee. (Its no coincidence they’re three of the first four in the betting - only once in the last ten years has a horse won at odds longer than 14/1).

The Nassau Stakes is a belting race with probably the best three middle distance turf fillies in the world lining up.

I hope Light Shift wins, I think Peeping Fawn will win, and it would not surprise me in the slightest of Mandisha wins. A race to savour rather than to bet in.

Best of luck to you today.
Matt

Good morning, dear reader, and once more I welcome you to Friday, though for the first time in August.

News greets me this morning of the wonderhorse Teofilo finally being retired. Regular readers will know that I shouted from the rooftops to lay this horse for the Guineas (or at least not back him) when news of his injury first filtered through, way back in early April.

Indeed at that time, I suggested he may never race again. It’s with a perverse combination of sadness and smug satisfaction that I have been proved right.

Bolger would have known this for some time, but has had to fight the public admiration (to say nothing of the money down for both Guineas and Derby) over the past few months.

The timing of the announcement, bang in the middle of a major racing festival, is of Swiss watchmaking precision.

I like Bolger a lot - I think he’s an excellent trainer - and he has my sympathy throughout this sad chapter.

He’ll have another superstar soon enough (even if you exclude the extremely talented filly, Finsceal Beo).

To racing systems…. and the tales of the tape make interesting reading, though there is still limited data available:

The Winning Racing Tips Selections so far were:

Turban Heights 0.4 e/w unplaced 20/1 -0.8 points
Fluffy 0.4 e/w 2^nd 8/1 -0.16 points
Asiatic Boy 1 e/w unplaced 7/2 -2 points

Total to date: -2.96 points

Although disappointing taken in microcosm, this service is still the best performing proofed service on the internet. Let’s hope that we hit the board a bit more over the next couple of days…

RSR results for Thursday:

Pivotal Queen 3-3.1 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Enticing 5.2-5 (free bet for 0.2 points, LOST, 2nd)
Badalona 4.5-4.1 (free bet for 0.4 points, LOST, 2nd)

Franchoek, Sagredo, and Time Over did not qualify because either the market movement was invalid or the odds were not within the parameters.

Remember, that on all ‘free bet’ trades (i.e. any horse where the price gets shorter), there is an option to ‘lock in’ a smaller profit, irrespective of the result.

Running totals:

Total Upside Horses: 11
Total Liability Horses: 4

Total upside = 3.57 points
Total liability = 0.89 points

Today’s potential RSR Qualifiers are:

Bangor 3.05 Millards Lad
3.40 Pigeon Island
4.50 Tarkesar

Goodwood 2.50 Costume
3.30 Third Set
4.05 Western Art

Thirsk 2.05 Rio Taffeta
3.15 Honest Prospector
3.50 Ravenna

Alas, due to drinking and gambling commitments at Goodwood, I’ll be unable to track these. Based on results to date, you can be confident that if any of them win, there is a roughly three in four (or 73.33% in old money) chance that you would have had a free bet on them, using this guide.

As much as I dislike the man, this works.

More info (though I HATE the sales pitch!) at: http://tinyurl.com/3bg9la

Thursday’s Laying System Results:

Jamboretta 8^th 5/2 Fav
Silca Key 6^th 11/2

A touch more respectability (indeed, six losers in a row) to a tarnished reputation. Overall, the results remain extremely promising: it just seems I chose the wrong possible time to share my lay approach… Ho hum.

Today’s Laying System Lays Are:

Thirsk 3.15 Honest Prospector
Haydock 6.05 Raffish
8.15 Elopement

Goodwood 2.15 Munsef (my dear old friend… )

As I will be away gallivanting, I am afraid that Friday fun will be carried over until next week.

However, for those footy fans amongst you, if you haven’t yet seen Manchester United’s newest signing, you need to scout him. He looks very promising..!

Bon Weekend, and don’t forget to sort out your FFL team. The numbers are slowly rising, but I’m still looking for more of you to join up. It’s free (did I mention that?!) and there’s prizes, so what are you waiting for?

http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

And the league registration code: 533724-97750

Bon weekend!
Matt

Welcome back, dear reader, and it’s tips time…

First up, Paul’s Winning Racing Tips selections are:

Nottingham 4.20
Fluffy 0.4 points each way and
Turban Heights 0.4 points each way

My lays today are:
Sandown
7.30 Jamboretta
8.05 Silca Key

The potential RSR horses, odds and market activity depending, are:

Goodwood
Enticing
Badalona

Nottingham
Pivotal Queen
Franchoek
Sagredo
Time Over

And, finally, the moment you’ve all been waiting for (ahem), my placepot selections today…

2.15 Trick Or Treat / Wannabe Posh
2.50 Enticing / Bond City / Classic Encounter (enormous e/w price!) / Tawaasol / Prime Defender / Terentia (again, six choices guarantees nothing!!)
3.30 Geordieland (money down from a heavy punting - read, crooked - stable)
4.00 Smart Instinct / Proponent / Pipedreamer / Sahrati / Emerald Witness
4.35 Shmookh (best bet of the day) / Vitznau (just in case Shmookh isn’t the best bet of the day!)
5.05 Badalona / Politeia

240 bets at 20p = £48

If I get through the first leg, I’m pretty hopeful today… If I don’t, there’s always tomorrow!

Ciao pronto
Matt

Hello as ever, dear reader, and this morning I’d like to doff my cap to a countryman (and, well, a countrynag) of my father and forefathers.

Step forward the brilliant Lanfranco Dettori and his gutsy equine sidekick, Ramonti.

Over the past few seasons, Frankie has seemed more interested in getting the ‘leg up’ at home with wife Katharine (and who can blame him, she’s lovely!), than riding eight horses a day at two separate meetings.

Not for him the pursuit of the jockeys’ championship: that’s for the boys who don’t ride for royalty.

But don’t mistake Dettori’s apparent semi-retirement for a lack of desire. (Indeed, his frustration at being banned for all but yesterday’s racing at Glorious Goodwood this week was almost palpable when interviewed by Racing UK yesterday. He walked away from the mike visibly livid and looked like he wanted to smash someone (small) firmly in the chops!)

His desire to help Godolphin back to the top of the tree is unquestioned. And yesterday he helped his employers strike two blows back against the mighty and dominant Coolmore operation.

First, he ambled to the front on the impressive Rio De La Plata, which will surely be underpriced for every race he runs in hereafter, and comfortably resisted Coolmore’s Lizard Island.

The truth is that any reader who has ever ridden a horse (which counts me out, incidentally) could probably have got this one home, though likely without the Italian’s panache.

But the second strike was by far the more impressive. Ramonti, Dettori’s willing charge (and Bisogno’s best bet of the day), travelled like a champion, was sent on by Frankie with over a quarter mile to go, and resisted the late charge of Coolmore’s Excellent Art by a fast evaporating head.

I suspect that Ramonti was idling in front; Ramonti lengthened in the betting alarmingly before the race (which was good for me, because I kept ‘topping up’ my stake); but Ramonti was the one proven multiple Group 1 winner in the field.

He is not the best miler I’ve ever seen by a long chalk, but I love his guts and I love his consistency. If he goes to Monmouth Park on the last Saturday in October for the Breeders Cup Mile, I (and my chums) will be shouting ourselves hoarse for the horse they call Ramonti.

Eulogy over, and to business…

Yesterday’s placepot went down on the last leg and, lest you think I was due a slice of the near £800 it paid, fret not. For if my filly had placed in the last it would have paid a fraction of what it did. I got my stakes back by laying her for a place, but again the big ‘pot of the week is still to play for.

Frustratingly, I managed to find winners at 16/1, 12/1, 9/2 and 8/13 in the ticket and - at one point - was cursing the possibility of being the only winning jackpot punter (without a jackpot ticket). Of course Man Of Vision’s third put paid to that, mercifully.

Racing Systems Revolution had an interesting day, as follows:

Legendary Guest 2.46-2.18 (free bet to win 0.28 points, WON)
Nassau Style 3.3-3.75 (liability of 0.45 points, LOST)
Love That Benny 3.7-3.1 (free bet to win 0.6 points, WON)
Sam’s Secret 2.34-2.2 (free bet to win 0.14 points, WON)
Shanahan 2.26-2.06 (free bet to win 0.2 points, LOST)

Total Upside Horses: 4
Total Liability Horses: 1

Total upside = 1.22 points
Total liability = 0.45 points

Running totals:

Total Upside Horses: 9
Total Liability Horses: 3

Total upside = 2.97 points
Total liability = 0.79 points

To me, this is starting to look like a very interesting trading system. It seems to have a simple but effective means of identifying horses that are likely to shorten in the betting, thus allowing us to trade in and out, and either have a free bet on a very fancied horse, or lock in a profit by ‘greening up’.

Although the system is not difficult, it may not be the most simple either. But I reckon anyone could get their head around it in just a few days.

I’ll be tracking the qualifiers again today, as we’re still dealing with a very small sample of runners at this stage.

[Incidentally, and an important aside, you may have seen an email from the author of RSR, or one of his promoters, yesterday proclaiming that they had had five winning trades and that Revue Princess was a loser for them. When I read this, I was worried I'd been doing something wrong, and went back to check the method again. I can assure you I have been tracking it to the letter, and this appears to be an example of trying to make the results fit the product. Although I like the product, I am really disappointed with the pitch, and it may prevent me from recommending it. I'm just not sure I want to put money into unscrupulous people like Steven Lee Jones's pockets].

My lays had a better day yesterday, with all four being beaten. (A muted cheer of relief from this corner).

Paul’s e/w tip yesterday, Asiatic Boy, suffered the fate of many an each way wager, fourth place. I mentioned here that I was surprised at his selection on the basis that it was the horse’s first turf attempt at Group 1 and I like to back horses with form in the book. Interestingly, Paul was miffed too, and was moved to write in his blog on the subject.

You can read that post here: http://winningracingtips.today.com/

By the way, thank you and well done to those who have entered Nag3 FFL already. If you haven’t, go here and sort it out!

http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

And the league registration code: 533724-97750

It’s still FREE and there’s still prizes, so there’s still no excuses!

Back later with my Goodwood Placepot Selections
Matt

Big Festival meetings are always the places where I like to try to grab a slice of the tasty placepot pie.

For some reason, I’ve always been better at finding placed horses than winners, and so I usually get close (if often, with no cigar).

[Incidentally, I was told the other day the etymology of 'Close But No Cigar'. Apparently it comes from the US fairgrounds of the 1920's and 30's when prizes for the skill games included nice Havana's. If you were unlucky, you'd be 'close but no cigar', so there you have it.]

I’m taking a fair few chances today, as I think the insoluble handicaps are wide open. With a big dollop of luck, this ‘pot will be worth having, and I’ll have a slab of it…

2.15 Full House / Great As Gold / Kayf Aramis / Secret Ploy / Noble Minstrel / Commemoration Day (I’ve gone down on the 1st leg with more selections than this!!)
2.50 Ellmau / Rio De Le Plata
3.30 Ramonti (best bet for me today)
4.05 Mariotto / Eradicate / Celestial Halo / Rosbay (cracking e/w wager) / Man Of Vision
4.40 Baltic Belle / Fongs Gazelle / Rhuepunzel (if I’m still going before this leg, I may wish I hadn’t been so ballsy…)
5.10 Kashoof (IF - bigger ‘if’ this time - I’m still going before this leg, I’ll lay her for a place to guarantee a return)

180 x 20p = £36

The E/W Winning Tips Selection today is Asiatic Boy in the 3.30 Goodwood (7/2 Totesport) You can use Betfair win(4.8)/place(1.65) markets, according to Paul.

Personally, like everyone else, I think Asiatic Boy could be a superstar, BUT he could flop on turf, and be much better suited by the Breeders Cup Classic on dirt, where I’d love to see him run irrespective of what happens today.

You can see the history of these selections at:

http://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/index.php

It’s the number one service on the Backing side.

If you want to sign up or read more about it, you can do so by clicking the green and white ad link on the left side of this page.

By the way, did I mention I’m running a Fantasy Football League this season…

Matt

Blimey, is it Wednesday already, dear reader? Where does the time go?

Today’s first post (yes, unlike Royal Mail, you very frequently get more than one post a day from Nag3!) has my first update on the performance of the latest product doing the rounds, Racing Systems Revolution (or RSR, to save my aching digits).

I, like many of you, am always sceptical when I see a product from the Steven Lee Jones ‘factory’. He seems to produce so many, and each is claimed to be the final solution, that it rather dilutes his message.

But, in fairness to Jones, he has recognised the 30 second attention span that most of us have, and is pandering to that emotional spot.

I have registered here previously that I don’t like his marketing pitch. I will do so again. I don’t like his marketing pitch.

But one of the primary purposes of this blog is to get beyond the blusterous hyperbole, and into the nitty gritty; to ask the question, “Never mind the crap, does it actually work?!”

Well, I’m somewhat surprised to tell you that early indications are that there is some credit in this guide.

The objective / system is to identify horses that you can be pretty sure will shorten in the betting in the 10-15 minutes before the off. If you can consistently do this, it gives you two options:

1. Back at a bigger price, then lay for your stake nearer the off. (This gives you a free bet on, usually, the favourite in qualifying races).

2. Back at a bigger price, then lay for slightly more than your stake, thus ‘greening up’ (i.e. locking in a profit, whichever horse wins).

The method stands or falls then on the consistency of its ability to identify horses that will shorten. Although the rules for this are simple, they are well founded and - ultimately - seem to do the job.

My record for the races I’ve been able to track over the past two days is as follows:

Monday

Alabama Spirit Odds went from 3.25 into 3 (free bet to win 0.25 points, LOST)
Generous Thought 3.6-3.3 (free bet to win 0.3 points, LOST)
Too Posh To Share 2.1-2.34 (liability of 0.24 points, LOST)
Effigy 4.2-3.85 (free bet to win 0.35 points, LOST)

Tuesday

Starlit Sands 4.3-3.85 (free bet to win 0.45 points, LOST)
Samurai Way 4.6-4.7 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Revue Princess 3-2.6 (free bet to win 0.4 points, WON)

Total Upside Horses: 5
Total Liability Horses: 2

Total upside = 1.75 points
Total liability = 0.34 points

I could have locked in small profits on most of these trades, but chose not to. Further, on an average test window like this, I would have expected a couple more of the horses to have won, thus giving more than the 0.4 points profit that I’m showing.

Five of the seven qualifying horses contracted in the betting, meaning that we could have traded out for a no risk wager.

That’s an impressive start, and I’ll be tracking the qualifiers still further over the next couple of days.

If you can’t wait and want to check it out, you can do so here:

http://tinyurl.com/3bg9la

[Just a point of interest: Revue Princess was a lay for me, and the race was thoroughly unsatisfactory. Started by flag (!!!!!!), she stole four lengths at the start and the other horses blew themselves out playing catch up. She won by less than the margin she nicked. Not that I'm bitter... ahem]

Today’s lays are:

Goodwood 4.05 Samira Gold
Goodwood 4.40 Gold Hush
Leicester 7.05 Limbo King
Redcar 2.05 Carnival Queen

Still having a tough time of it currently, alas.

Onto the footy, and specifically Fantasy League, where we all get to show the Whingeing Wengers, Moaning Mourinho’s, Fuming Ferguson’s, and downright Bonkers Benitez’s what they should be doing, and who they should be signing / selecting.

Well done to those early birds who have already submitted their teams for the Nag3 Fantasy Football.

If you’re holding out for final transfers before entering your side, note that you can make any amount of changes you like up to kick off day, 11th August, so get a strawman side in now, and mould it over the next ten days.

The link again: http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

And the league registration code: 533724-97750

It’s FREE and there’s prizes, so no excuses!

I’ll be banging on about this for the next week and more, so you might as well appease me now and signup

Back later with my Goodwood placepot selections (5 out of 6, and 4th place in the other leg yesterday, but only paid £91. I’m a big ‘pot hunter..!)

Matt