Just a quick line to say I’m very impressed with Racing Members Club so far.

They managed to get all five of their selections beaten today, so hats off!

You can join up here: http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Matt

An excellent day yesterday, dear readers, for followers of TrainerFlatStats and Laying System, and something of a ‘plug-y’ self-congratulatory post today as a result.

TFS had one runner, Melalchrist, who won at 11/4. That’s three winners and a second from the last five selections, including a 9/1 payoff (the other horse finished fourth at 8/1).

For Laying System, there were four losers yesterday from four runners. The odds were 5/2, 5/2, 9/4 and 2/1.

Although the qualifying races look a good bit trappier today, I’m hopeful that our good run will continue.

You can still take a free trial of Laying System, although you’ll only get a week now rather than the previous fortnight. Still, it’s something for nothing and will enable you to paper trade with no risk.

The url is http://www.Laying-System.com

so why not try it out?

Talking of paper trading, I cannot emphasise enough the importance of a period testing things out before you part with any folding. This is why I’m more than happy to demonstrate Laying System (for good or bad, and of course we have bad runs) free before a bean is spent.

It really p155es me off when people sign up for a free trial for a product of mine, and cancel after one or two days, moaning that they’ve lost money. (You know who you are…)

DO NOT BET WHEN YOU ARE ENJOYING A FREE TRIAL!!!

It is a completely obligation-free opportunity to test drive something without expense. Take advantage of that opportunity!

Elsewhere in the laying world, news reaches me of a product that a number of you have enquired about, due to its ads appearing in the google ad boxes on the left hand side.

This particular product is called Lay365. A couple of things stand out about this service immediately:

1) The contact email address is a hotmail address. Would you trust a service that doesn’t even have its own domain emails? (Maybe, but I sure wouldn’t!)

2) There is no free trial

3) There is no money back guarantee.

Now points 2 and 3 are interchangeable. That is, if there’s no free trial, that’s ok as long as I can paper trade and - if I’m losing money - get a refund. Equally, if I’ve been able to trial something to my satisfaction, I should then be prepared to part with my cash without a guarantee.

In the case of this site, there is no online payment option. Rather, to sign up you need to set up a standing order.

Whilst this is not standard, there’s nothing especially wrong with it: you have control over the Standing Order and can cancel any time. But I’d still expect to see an online payment option (like PayPal or Clickbank or Nochex, etc).

Be all that as it may, how do the selections stack up?

Well, from June 27th to now, one disappointed reader writes to tell me:

Indeed, since the start of August, things have taken a turn for the worse, with the following results:

Won 7-2,
L,
no bet,
Won 11-4,
no bet,
Won 9-4,
L,
L,
Won 2-1
no bet
no bet
L
Won 4-1 Five winners four losers with one day missing.

Lay365 gets a big thumbs down from me, based on this evidence, and - as my correspondent correctly points out - the owner of the site has stopped putting up the results now.

Avoid this one.

If you want to try a laying system, then try mine. I can’t promise you’ll have amazing results instantly, but I can tell you that:

- we’re nicely in front since inception
- there’s no unrealistic odds listed (all prices quoted are SP + 16%; 5% commission deducted on winning trades)
- you can try it without any risk to you for a week (paper trade!!!!)
- if you want to discuss anything, you know you’ll get a response. Anyone who’s ever emailed me has received a personal reply, even when they’ve been, erm, a little direct… [I don't mind directness, I am quite prone to it myself!]

Hello again, dear reader, from a soggy mouthed scribe today. Firstly, apologies for lack of content yesterday. An alternative business obligation meant I had to be in the West Country, from whence I’ve only just returned.

Normal service now resumed, and the reason for my salivating is that the postman has brought me a new CD. Not just any old CD though. Oh no, this one is the CD-Rom with last season’s National Hunt racing data on it (as well as all the previous season’s back to 1991!)

For the next few weeks then, I shall be researching for TrainerTrackStats (the jumps guide counterpart of TrainerFlatStats), and very excited I am too.

Lessons have been learned from last season, where overall a modest profit was made to level stakes, using betfair. There will be some differences in the approach this season, but more on this in due course.

Elsewhere, and many of you have already got hold of your subscription to Racing Members Club, a lay tipster service.

Tracking the results since Sunday, when the service was officially launched, we see the following:

12/8
15:10 Redcar - Robbie Scott LOST

13/8
14.30 Wolverhampton - Musical Charm 6.8 LOST
14.45 Stratford - Salesin 5.1 LOST
15.45 Stratford - Lusaka De Pembo 3.8 WON
19:55 Thirsk - Next Flight 7.2 LOST

14/8
14.15 Newton Abbot Knightsbridge Hill 4.5 LOST
15.15 Newt Abbot Once A Brownie 7.4 LOST
19.30 Musselburgh Radiator Rooney 7.8 LOST

There are no selections today. However, seven losers and one winner is a promising start indeed.

You can read more at:

http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Over at Sandown tonight, I reckon Redolent is plenty short enough on what he achieved on debut and, despite the likelihood of an improved show tonight, there are plenty in here who could be useful. I’ll be laying at around 6/4.

Good luck!
Matt

Thanks to those readers (Peter, Eddie, John, Mick and Keith) who agreed to send me the results from Racing Members Club. I won’t need any more offers, so thanks again.

I’ll post the results here as I get them.

Just to say that three losers yesterday were not quite enough to mitigate the winner at around 3.8.

If you want to sign up for Racing Members Club, you can do so here:

http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Remember that even though this is a monthly subscription, you can still take a refund if you’re not satisfied.

I’ll (re-)publish the details of how you do that at the end of the week.

Short post today as I need to be in Bristol and have a train to catch.

Happy Tuesday.
Matt

Just a quick line to see if any member has signed up for Racing Members Club, and would be prepared to share either the selections in advance or the results after the event? I’d want to track them for a week or so.

If you’re happy to do this, please send me an email at: matt@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Over the next couple of weeks, I may have limited opportunities to post daily, which is why I’d be grateful if someone could share these details.

Thanks
Matt

Another cautionary tale, dear reader, to begin the working week.

Having put up Finsbury as a horse to be interested in yesterday in the seller at Leicester, the horse duly obliged at a very fair 3/1 (he was clear on official ratings).

The trouble with sellers though, is that the winner gets auctioned. Obvious I know, but many trainers enter their horses hoping to boost the confidence but not wanting to lose the animal.

My experience of this was when our own Love’s Design won a seller at Lingfield back in 2001. He dotted up by five lengths, and our obvious joy soon turned to anguish as Andrew Reid (the owner trainer who had a good few all weather horses at that time) decided to bid for the horse.

We ended up having to go to 7,000 guineas to get him back. “But he was your horse”, you might be thinking. Well, yes, so we obviously didn’t pay the money to ourselves. But, by the time we’d paid the VAT (about a grand) and the buyers’ premium (another 700 notes), we’d done the prize money back!

No matter, for the Lover returned to Exning where Julia’s stables were at that time, and he went on to win another six races for us in a distinguished and - for me - unforgettable career.

Julia was less fortunate with Finsbury. Coming only a couple of days after Spirit of Sharjah was ’spirited’ away to Peter Chapple-Hyam’s by his ambitious (and extremely disloyal) owner, Finsbury was reluctantly let go for 9,500 guineas.

His new trainer will be Milton Bradley, a man who has consistently improved the nags of others. So it will be with much interest that I track Finsbury’s future progress.

Julia may find something to cheer about today though, as she looks to have found a good opportunity for another stable standing dish, Three Ships. He’s won a handful of races, including three for today’s regular pilot, Matt Smith.

He will enjoy the ground, and ran ok when warming up in a flat spin last month. He should be placed at least.

Elsewhere, and its Monday fare again, so there’ll be no transactions from my account after last week’s carnage, especially not as today is the 13th!

That said, if you want some pointers, look for high numbers over 5f and 6f at Windsor tonight.

Pixie’s Blue has the best of the draw, in 16, and her form at 6f gives her a very good chance. Jimmy Fortune is a great jock for getting the best out of a horse (read beating the living daylights out of his nag), and Gosden places his horses better than most.

Aside from that, I shall be watching Peterborough beat Southampton tonight, and thinking seriously about getting stuck into the Posh to win League Two. If I decide to punt them, you can be assured I’ll wait until tomorrow. Remember, this scribe has vowed to never bet on a Monday again…. at least not on horses.

Matt

A frustrating start to the footy season, dear reader, when Spurs - my adopted team for the season - and Sunderland, did the decent thing and played out what will surely be the most insipid hour and a half of football of the season as the hors d’oevre before the main course of Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal today.

I was interested to note that firstly, Jol decided to play Keane from the start (as suspected by my Spurs chums), then withdraw Berbatov later in the game, and actually use all four of his strikers for some part of the match.

Spurs were atrocious and this was surely a reality check for any North London fan with aspirations of a top four finish. In fairness, they were too bad to be true, lacking width, lacking ideas, and most worryingly, lacking any kind of cohesion or understanding.

After the game, Jol blamed the players, which surprised me. He has rarely deflected the responsibility to his boys, and this appears to mark an elevation in his own expectations. He has much work to do before the next game against Everton on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, and its been interesting to see some of the debutantes make their marks, notably at Manchester City and Liverpool. City cantered home away at West Ham, and Eriksson was apparently even warned for his animated posturing on the touchline. Where was that when he was England manager?!

Goals from Geovanni and Bianchi suggest that the new boys are half decent, though of course its too early to tell.

At Liverpool, Torres showed flashes of what he’s capable of, but the boy who caught my eye was Babel. Brought on for a fifteen minute cameo at the end, he looked strong, direct and very dangerous. He may find himself sneaking into my Fantasy League team at some point soon…

Away from the Premier League, and my teams started promisingly. Alas for me, my dirty double (Everton and Sheffield United) was undone by some ‘kamikaze defending’ at Bramall Lane.

Ho hum, we’ll be back next week.

On the racing front, there has been an international fiesta of equine action this weekend, with Arlington hosting the Arlington Million, Secretariat and Beverley D Stakes last night. A Canadian horse, Jambalaya, won the Million and an ex-French horse, Shamdinan, won the Secretariat.

Why am I telling you this? To illustrate the fact that the US turf horses are rubbish, and that there will be exciting betting opportunities later in the year when the Breeders Cup fields are better understood. The US horses will be overbet over there, and they will lose more races than they win from many more runners.

Today, Henrythenavigator puts his unbeaten record and tall reputation on the line in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, as he bids for a third win, and first in Group 1 company. He is the current favourite for next year’s 2000 Guineas but I wouldn’t be worrying too much about that at this stage.

Over in France, the mighty Manduro tries to do what he failed to do in three attempts last season, and win over a mile. His trainer believes there were excuses last season, but I wouldn’t be rushing to wager the horse today. Rather, I’m interested in him for the Arc, and preying that he will also go Stateside for the Breeders Cup Turf, where he’d be a great investment.

Over at Leicester, in the seller, Julia runs Finsbury. He’s been going ok in handicaps and is rated a good bit better than most of these. She did the same thing with Love’s Design, when he was racing for me and my friends. The Lover had lost his confidence, but when dropped to this level, he won by five lengths, and then went on to win three of his next four starts. I’ll be having a small interest.

Enjoy your Sunday.
Matt

A quick Saturday post, dear reader, to tell you that I’m frothing at the mouth like a Surrey cow in anticipation of the impending footballfest that kicks off at 12.45 today.

There’s still time to get your team into the fantasy league. Indeed, even if you miss the start, you can enter a team after this weekend but of course you’ll be playing catch up.

Here’s the url: http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

League entry code is 533724-97750

You can make as many changes to your squad prior to tomorrow’s kick off as you like, though by now you should have a pretty good idea of who you’re going to play.

It’s usually wise to leave the first footy acc’er for a few weeks when form has settled down a bit. But, that’s no fun. So let’s get stuck into a nice 13/8 double with BetFred, as follows:

Everton to beat Wigan at 8/11
Sheffield United to beat Colchester at 4/7

4 points to win 6.5 points.

I’ll be posting my footy tips on here all season, and keeping a running check.

Best of luck!
Matt

Hello again, dear reader. You may or may not be delighted to see that Friday Fun has returned from its week’s vacation (I was at Glorious Goodwood last Friday, getting gloriously lubricated).

To coincide with the start of the footy season, and the fact that I’ve been playing the most compulsive addictive frustrating game ever made, Football Manager (also known as Championship Manager), I’ve raided the youtube archives for a video classic.

You may have seen it before, but its well worth another watch. If you don’t like subtitles with thinly veiled expletives, I suggest you click on one of the google ads now

Bon Weekend, and get your fantasy league team in - see previous post for details.
Matt

OK, so it’s not quite Christmas, dear reader, but after a summer ’senza calcio’, its great to have the diving, moaning, overpaid pipsqueaks back chasing a pigskin (and each other) in the interminable pursuit of ’sticking it in the tin’, as I like to say.

Yes, its just 24 hours until Sunderland and Spurs kick the first ball in anger of the new football season, and millions of wives can expect to see less of millions of husbands (and, potentially, more of other people’s husbands!) for the next nine months or so.

I’ve had a £2 bet with my non-betting friend that Darren Bent will start tomorrow. He’s a Spurs fan (my mate, not Bent) and he reckons Jol loves Keane and will start him for sure. Given that Berbatov is a shoo in to start, and that the Dutch coach will not play three strikers in an away game, I may have done my dough.

But I see Bent making himself undroppable sooner rather than later, and he is my man for the season.

If you’ve been deliberating your team all week for the Fantasy Football, now’s the time to get it entered. Procrastination is the thief of time, as they say, and most of us can ill afford temporal burglars (whatever that means!), so enter your team now.

A quick reminder of the prizes:

The winner of Nag3 FFL will receive a copy of ‘Against The Crowd’ by Alan Potts, a copy of ‘Betting For A Living’ by Nick Mordin, a copy of TrainerFlatStats 2008, a copy of TrainerTrackStats (jumps version) 2008/9, and a year’s subscription to Laying System. That’s a total value of over £400!

The runner up will receive copies of TFS 2008 and TTS 2008/9 (value £76).

And each monthly prize winner will receive a month’s free subscription to Laying System, value £27. (Note that the August and September prize will be combined for the two months, as will the April / May prize. To be clear, that’s no monthly prize for August or April. Instead, points gained in those months will be added to the following month’s points to make for a ‘manager of the month’).

As well as all that, you’ll receive the undoubted kudos and “can’t put a price on that” value of being mentioned in the blog! ;o)

In total, that’s over £700’s worth of gear up for grabs, just for sticking a team in. Oh, and Premier League also put up some cash prizes as well, should you do so well in our league that you’re also challenging for overall honours!

It’s all free so get your team entered at:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

League entry code is 533724-97750

You can make as many changes to your squad prior to tomorrow’s kick off as you like, though by now you should have a pretty good idea of who you’re going to play.

Still on footy, and I promised a preview of the Championship today but, to be honest, I have a terrible history in that division. For the record, I fancy Sheffield United and Watford to bounce back up. I’m against Charlton (too many aged players) and Wolves (failed too many times before).

Horses. Let’s talk about horses.

After being hit with 9/1 and now a 12/1 qualifier on the laying system, both of whom went on to win, I’ve reviewed the results data again. Ultimately, even though its been a shocker of a week on that front, overall the information shows that laying at these prices has been profitable.

However, most people (myself very much included) don’t like to lay at big prices, for obvious reasons. To avoid nightmare liabilities, I will still publish all qualifiers in the subscription emails, but will counsel against laying at bigger than 6/1.

Indeed, on the results sheet, I also show the record if you’d only laid at 3/1 or shorter. Not surprisingly, this throws up more winners, but overall is slightly more profitable.

You can get the selections free for a fortnight, and paper trade with them, by clicking here.

You can view the results, for 3/1 or shorter and 6/1 or shorter here.

Not much to excite me from a punting perspective today (my mind is on football), but I hope that Snoqualmie Boy can get the win his consistency deserves tonight at Newmarket. He’s short to do so (a shade of odds on), but has the form in the book, and David Elsworth is the quiet king of Newmarket.

Prepare yourselves for nine months of football frenzy! Good luck to your team and remember, whoever they are, they’re probably better than Bournemouth!

Matt

Just two days to go until the start of the football season south of the border, dear reader, and excitement in the Bisogno household is reaching near fever pitch!

With most of my wagers now in situ, I am looking forward to cheering home my teams on the first Saturday of many in the 2007/8 season.

You’ll know by now that I’m expecting big things from Darren Bent, and have backed him accordingly with both Skybet (top British scorer, 13/2), and expekt.com (top League scorer outright, 24/1).

I am also rowing in with him to be top Spurs scorer at 5/2 with Hills, and doubling that up with Benni McCarthy to be top Blackburn scorer at a very generous 7/4 (same firm obviously). This cheeky little double comes in at 8.625/1 and I rate that a cracking bet, so get down to Hills and have some!

(With so many eggs in the Bent’y basket, an early season leg break will not be what the doctor ordered!)

I’ve also backed Luton (16/1, Skybet, Hills, Sporting Odds) and Watford (9/1, general) each way.

I’m not as confident on any side as I was about Hartlepool last year (hedged out for a nice few grand) but, nevertheless, I expect to draw on at least the place part of these wagers.

For the divisions, I’ll be doing the following perm with Sporting Odds:

Premier Man Utd (11/8)
Championship Watford (9/1), Sheffield United (9/1) (preview to follow)
League One Nottingham Forest (4/1), Luton (16/1)
League Two Peterborough (7/2), Darlington (14/1)

8 x £5 dream ticket accumulators, to return between £2671 and £30,281. Of course, its unlikely, but you’ve got to be in it to win it!

Talking of being in it to win it, as promised, “let’s take a look at what you would have won”, as Jim Bowen might have said in his Bullseye pomp, before two podgy darters heaved a speedboat onto the stage…

No speedboats up for grabs in the Fantasy Football alas (not sure what you’d do with one if you lived in London or Derby anyway..!), but plenty of punting prizes…

The winner of Nag3 FFL will receive a copy of ‘Against The Crowd’ by Alan Potts, a copy of ‘Betting For A Living’ by Nick Mordin, a copy of TrainerFlatStats 2008, a copy of TrainerTrackStats (jumps version) 2008/9, and a year’s subscription to Laying System. That’s a total value of over £400!

The runner up will receive copies of TFS 2008 and TTS 2008/9 (value £76).

And each monthly prize winner will receive a month’s free subscription to Laying System, value £27. (Note that the August and September prize will be combined for the two months, as will the April / May prize. To be clear, that’s no monthly prize for August or April. Instead, points gained in those months will be added to the following month’s points to make for a ‘manager of the month’).

As well as all that, you’ll receive the undoubted kudos and “can’t put a price on that” value of being mentioned in the blog! ;o)

In total, that’s over £700’s worth of gear up for grabs, just for sticking a team in. Oh, and Premier League also put up some cash prizes as well, should you do so well in our league that you’re also challenging for overall honours!

It’s all free so get your team entered at:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

League entry code is 533724-97750

Pip pip!
Matt

As promised, dear reader, here are my thoughts on a couple more of the major ante post football markets for this season. At the bottom of this post, you’ll also find Winning Racing Tips’ e/w selections for today.

Let’s start with the Premier League Golden Boot market.

My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham’s big summer signing from relegated Charlton, Darren Bent. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated. He also scored 18 the year before in the same Charlton side (though it performed better as a team, it had nowhere near the class that Spurs currently boast).

With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals, perhaps even beyond it.

Last season, Drogba won the race with 20, and he is injured for the start of the season, and away on African Nations Cup duty in January. He will likely miss eight to ten games (about a quarter of the total matches), so I think he is a terrible bet at a best priced 6/1.

So, if we take the favourite out of play, who are the contenders:

Wayne Rooney (14 goals last season, 12/1, expekt.com) is bound to be injured and suspended for some of the season, and isn’t really the type of out and out striker who wins this prize. Man United will score a hatful this season, as they do pretty much every year, but they will also share them around.

Not for me Roonaldo.

Cristiano Ronaldo (17 goals, 16/1, expekt.com) is a joy to watch. Despite the vitriol aimed at him last season after the World Cup affair, he was far and away the best player in the league last year.

Seventeen goals from midfield is an awesome return, and I reckon he’ll outscore Rooney again this year, while still coming up short in the overall totals race.

Benni McCarthy (18 goals, 21/1, expekt.com) is a player I admire too. He plays in a much under-rated team at Blackburn, and I’m very impressed that they’ve signed Roque Santa Cruz from Bayern Munchen for what could turn out to be a bargain price.

The problem for Benni this season is that, even with the majestic service he’ll get from MGP (Morten Gamst Pedersen, if you will), he is likely to have to share the goals with Roque and others.

RVP (Robin van Persie, 11 goals, 14/1, Bet365, Stan James, Ladbrokes) looks in awesome shape in pre-season, and is an exceptional talent. For me, Arsenal are the most creative side in the League, and they just might have solved their striking problems with Da Silva. Expect RVP to weigh in with double digit strikes, but fall short of the places.

Eduardo Da Silva (25/1 Boyle, Paddy Power, Sporting Odds, Ladbrokes) could be a great signing for Arsenal. I reckon he’s overpriced, as he is surely the only player the Gunners have who can sit on the shoulder of the last man, and put them away regularly. Whether Monsieur Wenger agrees with me remains to be seen. At the price, I’d be tempted to have a little each way. He may well be in the top four scorers, and could come out on top.

Forget Shevchenko (just 9/1 in a place, 18/1 with Coral) as he won’t get too many games, even with Drogba injured or absent.

Forget Fernando Torres (16/1 generally), a great player, but one who spends too much time on his backside moaning at referees, and who will be rotated in a side that doesn’t score too many goals.

I love Dimi Berbatov, who was the best newcomer last season by a distance. His nonchalance and casual demeanour masks an exceptional talent. However, he likes to sit just off the striker position, and I think will score less goals this season than last year’s dirty dozen.

I expect Jol to make B&B (that’s Berbi and Bent) his first choice partnership, and the latter’s five goals in pre-season shows that the pairing is ripe.

Berbi clearly likes playing with Bent, as he offers much more mobility and all round game than Defoe (who is probably a more natural finisher), and he offers more directness than the infuriating Robbie Keane (who has a touch of class, but too often finds little off the bridle, in racing parlance).

At 25/1 with Expekt.com, I think he’s the pick of the prices. I’ve backed him already and, if Jol starts the season with him (not insignificant ‘if’, as my Spurs mates tell me that Jol loves Keano), then I can see Bent being undroppable, and scoring a load of goals in an exciting team to watch. (They’ve got bags of pace and width, maybe still a question mark about the holding midfield position though).

A couple of important points about the odds quoted with expekt.com: although you may never have heard of them, they are a major player in Europe and are aggressively seeking signups in UK.

They bet win only on the top scorer market, which means there’s no place payout. Personally, on the top scorer charts, I think this is no bad thing, as an injury, suspension or dubious management decision could see a player have a long spell on the sidelines. In that instance, you’d do double your money.

If you’ve not got an account, but fancy taking the best price on one of the above, the good news is that expekt will match your first wager up to £25. That means, place a £25 bet and you’ll get £25 credited to your account.

Place a £10 bet and get £10 credited to your account.

You can sign up HERE if you’re tempted by those odds.

It’s Bent for me, followed by Da Silva.

League One is often a touch section to find the winner in. Last season, 50/1 shots Scunthorpe cruised home, thanks to a great unit and the goals of Billy Sharp (now at Sheffield United).

This season, Nottingham Forest are clear market leaders. They were a little disappointing last season but have bolstered their already impressive squad with the key signing of Neil Lennon, and other notable purchases, Matt Lockwood and Aaron Davies.

Lennon is a no nonsense ball winner with a touch of class, especially at this level, and he could make the difference for them this year. Even at a best priced 4/1 (Sporting Odds), I reckon they must go close and would want them in my portfolio.

Beyond them, I wouldn’t want Leeds even without the 15 point deduction. With it, they are no hopers to me, and they will have to get somewhere between 60 and 65 points just avoid relegation to League Two. How are the mighty fallen. (As a Bournemouth fan, you’ll forgive me for scoffing at the decline of a once great club with once great fans. Apologies to any genuine Whites supporters reading this).

Swansea (11/1 Skybet) have been knocking on the door in recent seasons, but they’ve had too many chances already for me. Lee Trundle has Premier League trickery but a distinctly Sunday League work ethic. He’s a joy to watch in highlight format though!

Doncaster, with former Cherries man Sean O’Driscoll at the helm, are top priced 11/1 (again with Sporting Odds), and have added ex-Cherries hitman, Jamie Hayter. Hayter once scored four away to Bury, and also scored the fastest ever hat-trick in Football League history against Wrexham (2mins and 20 seconds!).

He is a decent scorer but not a legendary predator by any means. In fact, he only scored ten for the Cherries last year, and was often deployed in a central midfield role.

Donny are a good workmanlike side with an honest and professional manager (though don’t look at him for a soundbite, unless you’re a big fan of footballing cliche’s), but I doubt they’re good enough to win this league.

Luton could be entertained at 16/1 (Skybet, Hills). Although relegated from the Championship last year, they have retained a lot of decent players, and they’ve brought in so
me impressive and proven names. Paul Peschisolido, Chris Perry, Darren Currie and Paul Furlong may all be closer to getting a bus pass than most players, but they’ve all been there, seen it and done it, and will bring bags of experience to a squad with some promising youth already on the books.

Further down the card, I like the look of Hartlepool and Bristol Rovers to ‘double up’ in the promotion stakes. It’s been done by a number of teams recently, with Southend and Brighton winning the division after being promoted from League Two the previous year, and Hull and Rotherham both finishing 2nd after promotion. Four teams in the top two in the last six seasons.

So back Hartlepool (11/1 BlueSq, Coral) and Bristol Rovers (14/1 Bet365, Stan James) for promotion. Remember, if either side finishes in the top six and is not automatically promoted, you will have 11’s or 14’s about a team in the four horse race that is the playoffs. Given the track record of teams coming up, these are the best value bets in the section for me.

And my original (not!) selection to win League One is Nottingham Forest. Sorry.

Onto the horses, and the Winning Racing Tips selections today are opposing Naomh Gheileis with
3.10 Pontefract 0.6pt e/w Effingham (5/1 Sportingodds/StanJames)
3.10 Pontefract 0.4pt e/w Nickel Silver (8/1 Bet365/BetDirect)

Finally, further reminders in case you needed them (!) that you should be entering your Fantasy League team in at http://www.premierleague.com/

Use the signup button to the right of the Budweiser symbol. To join the Nag3 League, where there are prizes to be won (exact nature of these to be revealed over the coming days), enter the following code: 533724-97750

Also, you can still sign up for a 14 day trial of Laying System, by clicking here.

TTFN
Matt

Fickle, dear reader, that’s the only way to describe it.

I am of course talking about the mindset of racehorse owners who decide to move their horses to another yard.

In this case, I refer specifically to Alan Dee who, with only the second horse he has owned outright, has decided that Julia Feilden is not good enough to train Spirit of Sharjah any more.

After all, the same trainer who got his part-owned Dance World to win four races, had only managed to land a touch from 16/1 into 10’s on debut for him, and then win a Listed race at Goodwood.

Oh yeah, and she trained the colt to finish third behind Winker Watson in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Pathetic training feat for a woman with just over 20 horses..

The horse will now be housed at Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Boarding School For Extremely Talented Juveniles and, while I rate the trainer the best with 2yo’s, I still gall at the fickle nature of the decision to relocate the animal.

Julia is a very fine trainer. Dee’s complaint that she has no comparable horses to run Sharjah against is only partially true. Its certainly the case that she has no equally able juveniles, but she has speedy animals such as my own (in part) Rapid City who, whilst on the crocked list again now, had been working with Sharjah recently.

As an older horse, he is bigger and stronger and has been a good galloping partner for the most precocious beast Julia’s had the privelege to train to date.

If Dee felt that his horse was going to be so good, why didn’t he send it to P C-H in the first place? Answer: because not only did Julia train him to those aforementioned great feats, she also spotted him at the sales and bought him for the relatively paltry sum of £30,000.

So, she has made Dee’s dreams come true and he has now shattered hers. I’m afraid I am not a fan of this kind of disloyalty and I almost wish Sharjah misfortune hereafter. Almost, but not quite. Because as much as I dislike disloyalty, I despise wishing ill of others even when their behaviour might justify it.

Other news, and Dundalk is preparing to open its doors as Ireland’s first all weather track. Preliminary gallops were held yesterday and there’s a plan for four trial races next week. The first fixtures are pencilled in from end September (starting 27th), and they have floodlights fitted for evening action too.

There is a growing trend towards dirt racing in these isles now, and this will lead to better racing on the surface. I’m all in favour of this, as I think that there are so many more consistencies about dirt racing that make it a much more palatable punting proposition.

Allied to this is the fact that, due to the number of US bred’s racing here now, many of these are much more suited to the dirt surfaces anyway.

From the picture in the Racing Post, the stand looks impressive and I’ll try to get across to Dundalk in the next six months to check it out.

Also on the subject of all weather racing, Great Leighs latest opening date is October 18th, which just happens to be my birthday. Should the track actually make the date this time, I may well be there for a boozy celebration. More nearer the time…

They race at Brighton among other places today, and a couple of interest to me are Princely Ted (3.30) and Caravel (5.00). The former is trained by Rodney Farrant, a decent rider in his day in points, and they backed it like it was expected last time.

Ted finished second that day and is expected to improve for an extra quarter mile. Farrant rode often for Martin Pipe and will doubtless have picked up a few tips about training horses for stamina from there, and this boy could gallop them senseless.

Caravel was also punted last time, when upped to a mile for the first time on his handicap bow for Sir Mark Prescott. The familiar tactic just failed though, and there’ll likely be a few money back missions today. The race looks to have limited depth today, and he will be thereabouts.

At Yarmouth tonight, Mickmacmagoole has a good chance. I layed him to my cost in the past, when he won at 15/8 on fast ground. He drowned in the bog at the Curragh last time, and this surface will be much more up his street in a less competitive affair.

The horse comes over from Tipperary (to where, as we all know, its a long way), and Jamie Spencer reacquaints himself as a previous winning rider. 10/3 was available this morning and a bit bigger on the exchanges. I’d expect this to shorten (though I’m no special judge of these things).

Over at Pontefract, I’m going to oppose Divine Spirit for the cakes. He’s high in the weights now and has an awful draw (pretty strong low bias over sprint trips, he’s got 12 of 13). Although he’s on the hat-trick and Rroyston ‘the Boyston’ Ffrench is riding, I’ll take Kings College Boy and Dark Champion each way against him.

In the same race, Ryedane is due a win and, if he lines up after running yesterday, may also go close.

They also race at Newcastle, a track at which I don’t remember ever backing a winner in my life, so I’ll spare you my thoughts on the contests there today!

Back later with some thoughts on League One footy this season. (Incidentally, the Racing Post football pullout is published with the paper today. If you can get hold of a copy, do it. Apart from headlining Bournemouth for relegation - how very dare they?! - it’s a cracking read).

Matt

Starting this week’s series of footy previews, and I’m going to look at the Premier League and League Two.

Firstly, the winner of the Premier League this season will be Manchester United (best price 2.44 with betfair, 7/5 expekt.com). No ifs, no buts.

Chelsea (2.98 betfair, 15/8 Betdirect) have a horrendous injury list currently, and may drop points early on. Even if they don’t, I’m expecting some fireworks in the Stamford Bridge camp when the likes of Ballack and Shevchenko aren’t getting regular first team games.

Claudio Pizzaro looks a player to watch: I’ve always like him and I think his game is well suited to the Premiership but, with Drogba missing the start and away on African Nation’s Cup duty in January / February, I think Chelsea will struggle to score goals this season.

Liverpool (6.8 betfair, 6/1 Betfred) have bought a lot players and have an excellent squad. I still have a few reservations about their goalscoring abilities, but they’ll likely be the tightest defence in the league (important if you’re considering defenders for your Fantasy League team).

Arsenal (11.5 betfair, 11/1 Bet365) will be fantastic on the eye, but frustrating in front of goal, despite the addition of a predatory striker in Eduardo Da Silva (I reckon this boy get a bagful of goals this year).

But if there’s one team who may break into the elite quartet this season, its free-spending Spurs.

I like Martin Jol as a manager, and I think he’s mollycoddled the young boys at Spurs very well. This year he’s going to expect them to grow into men, and he’s getting rid of the troublemakers.

So, exit stage left Mido, Ghaly and - if he can find a buyer – Jermaine Jenas. Enter Darren Bent, super striker.

My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham’s big summer signing from relegated Charlton. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated.

With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals.

He also looks very interesting at 13/2 (already been backed in from 8/1) to be top British and Irish striker with Skybet. Better still, if you use the skybet link on this page to sign up, you’ll get your wager matched up to £20 (if you’re not already a skybet customer).

My full top scorer thoughts will appear later in the week, but suffice it to say, Benty Boy is one of my two selections.

League Two

No such thing as a two, three or even four horse race in basement division, with any number of teams pitching for promotion. I’ve narrowed it down to four, who I think will fight it out come the business end of the season.

First up, unsurprisingly, is Peterborough (4/1 Betfred, Paddy Power). Managed by Sir Alex Ferguson’s son, Darren, and bankrolled by a wealthy Irishman, free spending Posh have a hell of a lot going for them.

It is normally a side with either money, or prudent use of the loans market, that wins this division. Posh have both. You can be sure that if Derby or Wolves or their ilk want to borrow a Manchester United player, they need to be happy to send a boy or two to London Road this season.

But what of their current squad?

In goal, they’ve got the reliable but not special Mark Tyler. He’s a Peterborough institution and needs just five more games to reach his 400^th appearance.

Defended by the likes of Adam Newton and Chris Westwood, Tyler shouldn’t feel too vulnerable but the missed catch of Steve Elliott from Bristol Rovers must smart, and I’d like to see them strengthening the back four.

Scoring goals however will not be a problem. Posh will be the top scoring team in the league this season, it’s just a question of how many they let in.

In Craig Mackail-Smith (CMS), they have what many people believe to be the best striker in the division. He’s a 16/1 shot to be top scorer and will miss the first couple of games, recovering from a pre-season injury. But I think he’s a decent bet to top the scoring charts.

Others who will be chasing double figure goal tallies on the Posh roster include Danny Crow and Aaron MacLean, but CMS should be first choice and should hit a bundle.

The midfield is the best in the division in my opinion, with proven League One players such as Dean Keates (from Walsall), Micah Hyde, and Gavin Strachan supported by exciting talents like Josh Lowe, Charlie Lee and George Boyd.

If it wasn’t for the potentially porous defence I wouldn’t be able to look past Peterborough. But to win consistently, you have to keep the oppo at bay, and I really feel this will be a struggle unless they invest in their defence.

Saying that, if they bring in a couple of decent proven defenders, they’ll be very very tough to beat.

Elsewhere, I like the prospects of Chesterfield, Darlington and – at any price you like – Dagenham.

Chesterfield (14/1 generally) were the best of the relegated teams last season, beating Bradford, Brentford and Rotherham, and I am confident they will do well this season.

The record of teams relegated from League One bouncing back is above average, and the Spireites have retained most of their squad from last year. They’ve bolstered the side with the signings of Jack Lester from Forest and my mate, SuperFletch (that’s Steve Fletcher to you) from Bournemouth. Lester is a class act on his day, and Fletcher – though slow as a boat and with a wider turning circle – will challenge as the best target man in the division. He rarely gets beaten to a header.

Darlington (14/1 generally) are my friend’s tip and he’s very strong on them. He’s backed them accordingly. The have a proven manager in Dave Penney, who worked the oracle out of this section with Doncaster previously, getting that side out of the Conference before winning League Two.

The side has oodles of experience, with the likes of Steve Foster, Andy Oakes and Pawel Abbot added to the squad, and my concern is that they will likely have too many new faces to effectively gel straight away. I expect Darlo to make big strides as the season progresses, but much will depend upon whether they can hit the ground running.

A good bet for Darlo then is to back them for promotion (3/1 widely available), where you will get three automatic spots, plus a run for your money (and an opportunity to trade out) if they finish in the top seven –
and therefore make the playoffs. 3/1 about making the playoffs is more than fair…

Finally, my each way shout is Dagenham (33/1 Skybet and others). A fair few teams have come out of the Conference and been pretty competitive in this league, and the Daggers (my local team for three years) strolled home in that division last season.

They don’t have too many household names in the squad (but then, which League Two sides do?!), but in Paul Benson they have a striker who proved himself capable of filling the considerable void left by CMS’ departure to Peterborough.

I reckon that they are decent value for small stakes, and the top priced 9/1 offered by Skybet for promotion looks cracking value. Remember, if they finish in the top seven, you’ve either collected already via the automatic spots, or you’ve got 9/1 in the four horse playoff race, and can easily lay off for a profit or your stakes back.

I’ve put the skybet link on the page for a few reasons, as follows:

1. Its an account you’re less likely to have than say Ladbrokes
2. They go best price on many football wagers, and are clearly striving for market share in that sport
3. You get a free bet when you sign up, up to £20
4. I get something out of it when you sign up too
   

FFL

While we’re on the subject of footy, don’t forget the Fantasy League competition that I’m running through the official Premier League site. Its free to enter, and will be a lot of fun. If your team does well, you can expect a namecheck or two as the season progresses, and there will be prizes on offer as well.

Get your team registered here:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

(Look on the right side for the ‘Sign Up’ link).

The code for the league is 533724-97750.

See if you can work out who at least one of my strike force is…
Matt

As promised, here are my thoughts on the product that you’ve seen a million emails for in recent days, and that I’ve been trialling on the blog: Racing Systems Revolution.

The grandiose title is in no way out of kilter with this systems production unit’s penchant for hyperbole and, if you can see beyond the implausibly conspiratorial approach to the sales bluster, the product is actually pretty good.

Firstly, let me say what it’s not. It’s not really a backing system and it’s not really a laying system. Rather, it’s a means of getting in and out on a bet before a hoof has struck turf in anger.

Yes, it’s a trading system. Of course, any trading system relies on its selection policy consistently picking horses who shorten or lengthen (depending on whether you are to back first, then lay, or vice versa).

The rules for this system are pretty simple, but as I often say, that in itself is not necessarily a bad thing.

Once you’ve identified potential qualifiers, using info freely available on the Racing Post website, you need to monitor the pre-race odds for signs of market support. This is all explained in simple terms and is pretty straightforward to get your head around.

I must concede to only really ever trading on sports events: that is, if I’ve backed a cyclist in the Tour outright events and his odds have truncated, or if I’ve backed a footy team who have scored the first goal, I will always trade out for a free bet.

That’s just common sense: why risk money for no reason?!

Well, this is the racing alternative, except that here you don’t wait for the race to start. Instead, you’re in and out before the gates open or the tape rises.

There are two ways to play it: you can either lock in a free bet (like my sports examples above) – this relies on the selection winning to get a payout, but there is no loss if the selection doesn’t win. Given that you’ll generally be backing well-supported favourites, it’s fair to expect them to win pretty often.

The alternative is to ‘green up’, an exchange expression for when every possible outcome gives you a payout. In this case, you’ll need to lay back more than you originally staked to get a smaller payout than you would if you took the first option. The kickback of course is that you’re guaranteed a return, regardless of whether the selection wins or loses.

“So this is free money then Matt?!”

Er, not quite, no. As with everything, there are no certainties. If the odds go against you, and the horse drifts in the betting after you’ve backed it, you have to mitigate that risk, by laying for your stake at a bigger price and hoping the horse gets beaten (for instance, if you backed at 2.5 and the horse lengthened to 2.76 at which point you laid it, you would have a liability of a quarter of a point IF the horse won. If it was beaten, you’d get your money back).

So the selection method is key, and if it can consistently find shortening horses in the market, then overall you will have plenty of profitable trades to offset the drifters.

OK, that’s the theory, but how did RSR do in practice?

Alabama Spirit Odds went from 3.25 into 3 (free bet to win 0.25 points, LOST)
Generous Thought 3.6-3.3 (free bet to win 0.3 points, LOST)
Too Posh To Share 2.1-2.34 (liability of 0.24 points, LOST)
Effigy 4.2-3.85 (free bet to win 0.35 points, LOST)
Starlit Sands 4.3-3.85 (free bet to win 0.45 points, LOST)
Samurai Way 4.6-4.7 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Revue Princess 3-2.6 (free bet to win 0.4 points, WON)
Legendary Guest 2.46-2.18 (free bet to win 0.28 points, WON)
Nassau Style 3.3-3.75 (liability of 0.45 points, LOST)
Love That Benny 3.7-3.1 (free bet to win 0.6 points, WON)
Sam’s Secret 2.34-2.2 (free bet to win 0.14 points, WON)
Shanahan 2.26-2.06 (free bet to win 0.2 points, LOST)
Pivotal Queen 3-3.1 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Enticing 5.2-5 (free bet for 0.2 points, LOST)
Badalona 4.5-4.1 (free bet for 0.4 points, LOST)
Cave Of The Giant 2.9-2.3 (free bet for 0.6 points, LOST)
Dark Parade 2.6-2.1 (free bet for 0.5 points, LOST)

Total Upside Horses: 13
Total Liability Horses: 4

Total upside = 4.67 points
Total liability = 0.89 points

Remember that on every horse that moved inwards in the betting, you could have guaranteed a profit. Given that over three quarters moved in the right direction, that’s pretty good.

Also, looking at the upside versus liability statements, that strongly favours you from a trading perspective.

The only disappointment was how many of these horses went on to get beaten, suggesting that a lot of punters ‘did it in’ this last week (not just me!).

Interestingly, all four liability horses lost, supporting the perceived correlation between lack of market support and a horse’s chance.

Of course, just as I expect more of the shortening horses to win in the longer term, so I expect some of the liability horses to win as well.

Overall, despite the fact that this comes from a ‘factory’ whose style I don’t really like, I have to recommend this product as it does work.

There is sound logic in the selection process, which means it’s easy to see why these horses would be (over)bet. Herein lies the edge.

As with all products sold via Clickbank, if you don’t like it or its not for you, you can get your money back. (Do this via Clickbank rather than writing to the author, as you’ll wait a verrry long time otherwise)

If you want to read more about it, or try a copy, click here. (Remember, although I condone the product, I cannot possibly condone the terribly over the top “the world is out to get you” sales pitch. You might want to go directly to the ‘buy now’ link and spare yourself the sick bucket experience…)

Matt