Starting this week’s series of footy previews, and I’m going to look at the Premier League and League Two.

Firstly, the winner of the Premier League this season will be Manchester United (best price 2.44 with betfair, 7/5 expekt.com). No ifs, no buts.

Chelsea (2.98 betfair, 15/8 Betdirect) have a horrendous injury list currently, and may drop points early on. Even if they don’t, I’m expecting some fireworks in the Stamford Bridge camp when the likes of Ballack and Shevchenko aren’t getting regular first team games.

Claudio Pizzaro looks a player to watch: I’ve always like him and I think his game is well suited to the Premiership but, with Drogba missing the start and away on African Nation’s Cup duty in January / February, I think Chelsea will struggle to score goals this season.

Liverpool (6.8 betfair, 6/1 Betfred) have bought a lot players and have an excellent squad. I still have a few reservations about their goalscoring abilities, but they’ll likely be the tightest defence in the league (important if you’re considering defenders for your Fantasy League team).

Arsenal (11.5 betfair, 11/1 Bet365) will be fantastic on the eye, but frustrating in front of goal, despite the addition of a predatory striker in Eduardo Da Silva (I reckon this boy get a bagful of goals this year).

But if there’s one team who may break into the elite quartet this season, its free-spending Spurs.

I like Martin Jol as a manager, and I think he’s mollycoddled the young boys at Spurs very well. This year he’s going to expect them to grow into men, and he’s getting rid of the troublemakers.

So, exit stage left Mido, Ghaly and - if he can find a buyer – Jermaine Jenas. Enter Darren Bent, super striker.

My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham’s big summer signing from relegated Charlton. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated.

With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals.

He also looks very interesting at 13/2 (already been backed in from 8/1) to be top British and Irish striker with Skybet. Better still, if you use the skybet link on this page to sign up, you’ll get your wager matched up to £20 (if you’re not already a skybet customer).

My full top scorer thoughts will appear later in the week, but suffice it to say, Benty Boy is one of my two selections.

League Two

No such thing as a two, three or even four horse race in basement division, with any number of teams pitching for promotion. I’ve narrowed it down to four, who I think will fight it out come the business end of the season.

First up, unsurprisingly, is Peterborough (4/1 Betfred, Paddy Power). Managed by Sir Alex Ferguson’s son, Darren, and bankrolled by a wealthy Irishman, free spending Posh have a hell of a lot going for them.

It is normally a side with either money, or prudent use of the loans market, that wins this division. Posh have both. You can be sure that if Derby or Wolves or their ilk want to borrow a Manchester United player, they need to be happy to send a boy or two to London Road this season.

But what of their current squad?

In goal, they’ve got the reliable but not special Mark Tyler. He’s a Peterborough institution and needs just five more games to reach his 400^th appearance.

Defended by the likes of Adam Newton and Chris Westwood, Tyler shouldn’t feel too vulnerable but the missed catch of Steve Elliott from Bristol Rovers must smart, and I’d like to see them strengthening the back four.

Scoring goals however will not be a problem. Posh will be the top scoring team in the league this season, it’s just a question of how many they let in.

In Craig Mackail-Smith (CMS), they have what many people believe to be the best striker in the division. He’s a 16/1 shot to be top scorer and will miss the first couple of games, recovering from a pre-season injury. But I think he’s a decent bet to top the scoring charts.

Others who will be chasing double figure goal tallies on the Posh roster include Danny Crow and Aaron MacLean, but CMS should be first choice and should hit a bundle.

The midfield is the best in the division in my opinion, with proven League One players such as Dean Keates (from Walsall), Micah Hyde, and Gavin Strachan supported by exciting talents like Josh Lowe, Charlie Lee and George Boyd.

If it wasn’t for the potentially porous defence I wouldn’t be able to look past Peterborough. But to win consistently, you have to keep the oppo at bay, and I really feel this will be a struggle unless they invest in their defence.

Saying that, if they bring in a couple of decent proven defenders, they’ll be very very tough to beat.

Elsewhere, I like the prospects of Chesterfield, Darlington and – at any price you like – Dagenham.

Chesterfield (14/1 generally) were the best of the relegated teams last season, beating Bradford, Brentford and Rotherham, and I am confident they will do well this season.

The record of teams relegated from League One bouncing back is above average, and the Spireites have retained most of their squad from last year. They’ve bolstered the side with the signings of Jack Lester from Forest and my mate, SuperFletch (that’s Steve Fletcher to you) from Bournemouth. Lester is a class act on his day, and Fletcher – though slow as a boat and with a wider turning circle – will challenge as the best target man in the division. He rarely gets beaten to a header.

Darlington (14/1 generally) are my friend’s tip and he’s very strong on them. He’s backed them accordingly. The have a proven manager in Dave Penney, who worked the oracle out of this section with Doncaster previously, getting that side out of the Conference before winning League Two.

The side has oodles of experience, with the likes of Steve Foster, Andy Oakes and Pawel Abbot added to the squad, and my concern is that they will likely have too many new faces to effectively gel straight away. I expect Darlo to make big strides as the season progresses, but much will depend upon whether they can hit the ground running.

A good bet for Darlo then is to back them for promotion (3/1 widely available), where you will get three automatic spots, plus a run for your money (and an opportunity to trade out) if they finish in the top seven –
and therefore make the playoffs. 3/1 about making the playoffs is more than fair…

Finally, my each way shout is Dagenham (33/1 Skybet and others). A fair few teams have come out of the Conference and been pretty competitive in this league, and the Daggers (my local team for three years) strolled home in that division last season.

They don’t have too many household names in the squad (but then, which League Two sides do?!), but in Paul Benson they have a striker who proved himself capable of filling the considerable void left by CMS’ departure to Peterborough.

I reckon that they are decent value for small stakes, and the top priced 9/1 offered by Skybet for promotion looks cracking value. Remember, if they finish in the top seven, you’ve either collected already via the automatic spots, or you’ve got 9/1 in the four horse playoff race, and can easily lay off for a profit or your stakes back.

I’ve put the skybet link on the page for a few reasons, as follows:

1. Its an account you’re less likely to have than say Ladbrokes
2. They go best price on many football wagers, and are clearly striving for market share in that sport
3. You get a free bet when you sign up, up to £20
4. I get something out of it when you sign up too
   

FFL

While we’re on the subject of footy, don’t forget the Fantasy League competition that I’m running through the official Premier League site. Its free to enter, and will be a lot of fun. If your team does well, you can expect a namecheck or two as the season progresses, and there will be prizes on offer as well.

Get your team registered here:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

(Look on the right side for the ‘Sign Up’ link).

The code for the league is 533724-97750.

See if you can work out who at least one of my strike force is…
Matt

As promised, here are my thoughts on the product that you’ve seen a million emails for in recent days, and that I’ve been trialling on the blog: Racing Systems Revolution.

The grandiose title is in no way out of kilter with this systems production unit’s penchant for hyperbole and, if you can see beyond the implausibly conspiratorial approach to the sales bluster, the product is actually pretty good.

Firstly, let me say what it’s not. It’s not really a backing system and it’s not really a laying system. Rather, it’s a means of getting in and out on a bet before a hoof has struck turf in anger.

Yes, it’s a trading system. Of course, any trading system relies on its selection policy consistently picking horses who shorten or lengthen (depending on whether you are to back first, then lay, or vice versa).

The rules for this system are pretty simple, but as I often say, that in itself is not necessarily a bad thing.

Once you’ve identified potential qualifiers, using info freely available on the Racing Post website, you need to monitor the pre-race odds for signs of market support. This is all explained in simple terms and is pretty straightforward to get your head around.

I must concede to only really ever trading on sports events: that is, if I’ve backed a cyclist in the Tour outright events and his odds have truncated, or if I’ve backed a footy team who have scored the first goal, I will always trade out for a free bet.

That’s just common sense: why risk money for no reason?!

Well, this is the racing alternative, except that here you don’t wait for the race to start. Instead, you’re in and out before the gates open or the tape rises.

There are two ways to play it: you can either lock in a free bet (like my sports examples above) – this relies on the selection winning to get a payout, but there is no loss if the selection doesn’t win. Given that you’ll generally be backing well-supported favourites, it’s fair to expect them to win pretty often.

The alternative is to ‘green up’, an exchange expression for when every possible outcome gives you a payout. In this case, you’ll need to lay back more than you originally staked to get a smaller payout than you would if you took the first option. The kickback of course is that you’re guaranteed a return, regardless of whether the selection wins or loses.

“So this is free money then Matt?!”

Er, not quite, no. As with everything, there are no certainties. If the odds go against you, and the horse drifts in the betting after you’ve backed it, you have to mitigate that risk, by laying for your stake at a bigger price and hoping the horse gets beaten (for instance, if you backed at 2.5 and the horse lengthened to 2.76 at which point you laid it, you would have a liability of a quarter of a point IF the horse won. If it was beaten, you’d get your money back).

So the selection method is key, and if it can consistently find shortening horses in the market, then overall you will have plenty of profitable trades to offset the drifters.

OK, that’s the theory, but how did RSR do in practice?

Alabama Spirit Odds went from 3.25 into 3 (free bet to win 0.25 points, LOST)
Generous Thought 3.6-3.3 (free bet to win 0.3 points, LOST)
Too Posh To Share 2.1-2.34 (liability of 0.24 points, LOST)
Effigy 4.2-3.85 (free bet to win 0.35 points, LOST)
Starlit Sands 4.3-3.85 (free bet to win 0.45 points, LOST)
Samurai Way 4.6-4.7 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Revue Princess 3-2.6 (free bet to win 0.4 points, WON)
Legendary Guest 2.46-2.18 (free bet to win 0.28 points, WON)
Nassau Style 3.3-3.75 (liability of 0.45 points, LOST)
Love That Benny 3.7-3.1 (free bet to win 0.6 points, WON)
Sam’s Secret 2.34-2.2 (free bet to win 0.14 points, WON)
Shanahan 2.26-2.06 (free bet to win 0.2 points, LOST)
Pivotal Queen 3-3.1 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Enticing 5.2-5 (free bet for 0.2 points, LOST)
Badalona 4.5-4.1 (free bet for 0.4 points, LOST)
Cave Of The Giant 2.9-2.3 (free bet for 0.6 points, LOST)
Dark Parade 2.6-2.1 (free bet for 0.5 points, LOST)

Total Upside Horses: 13
Total Liability Horses: 4

Total upside = 4.67 points
Total liability = 0.89 points

Remember that on every horse that moved inwards in the betting, you could have guaranteed a profit. Given that over three quarters moved in the right direction, that’s pretty good.

Also, looking at the upside versus liability statements, that strongly favours you from a trading perspective.

The only disappointment was how many of these horses went on to get beaten, suggesting that a lot of punters ‘did it in’ this last week (not just me!).

Interestingly, all four liability horses lost, supporting the perceived correlation between lack of market support and a horse’s chance.

Of course, just as I expect more of the shortening horses to win in the longer term, so I expect some of the liability horses to win as well.

Overall, despite the fact that this comes from a ‘factory’ whose style I don’t really like, I have to recommend this product as it does work.

There is sound logic in the selection process, which means it’s easy to see why these horses would be (over)bet. Herein lies the edge.

As with all products sold via Clickbank, if you don’t like it or its not for you, you can get your money back. (Do this via Clickbank rather than writing to the author, as you’ll wait a verrry long time otherwise)

If you want to read more about it, or try a copy, click here. (Remember, although I condone the product, I cannot possibly condone the terribly over the top “the world is out to get you” sales pitch. You might want to go directly to the ‘buy now’ link and spare yourself the sick bucket experience…)

Matt

“Tell me why I don’t like Mondays”, squealed Sir Bob Geldof, a few years before he screamed, “Give us your f*cking money!”.

But with the latter expression, dear reader, he could have been a bookmaker answering the former question for me.

As of today, slightly after the horse has bolted, I am now closing the stable door at Monday Barn.

I’ve had it with Mondays from a betting perspective: regular readers will know that I’ve been wary of them for some time, and now I’m conceding defeat. I’ve added three new rules to my rules list after a(nother) Black Monday.

1. NEVER BET HORSES ON A MONDAY
2. NEVER BET HORSES ON A MONDAY
3. NEVER BACK OR LAY IN AMATEUR RACES.

There is no question that amateur rider races have had a major impact on the bottom line for Laying System this season, and yesterday’s Windsor affair - though brutal in itself - was also a defining moment.

The 9/1 winner was a lay for me, when I don’t normally lay at longer than 4/1. I’d reasoned that he couldn’t win, being a fully exposed 11 year old in a field of faster younger better ridden horses. Well, long story short, I was wrong, and I paid out one unit for every year old the horse was as a result.

A painful experience, especially on the back of Celtic on Sunday. It’s been a tough couple of days.

No matter, for I very rarely go to the odds that Celtic were, and I will now never find myself in the situation I did with Wait For The Will (at this rate, there’ll be nothing left in the will!).

I don’t know about you, but for me, Monday is now a ‘no fly zone’. I will endeavour to fill the space here with some racing related info on the first day of each week, but don’t expect a tip.

Enough already…

Back later with some football predictions (Premier League will not be a surprise, and League Two which is a little more interesting I think), and a review of Racing Systems Revolution (just in time for the next product on the Steven Lee Jones conveyor belt to be released: step forward the Racing Members Club, for which you may well have already seen emails).

There’s also an update on Paul’s Winning Racing Tips, which are getting closer to the bullseye but still struggling to beat the odds on jollies.

Matt