As promised, dear reader, here are the details on how you can get your hands on a copy of the Brand New TrainerTrackStats (TTS) guide, for the jumps season starting tomorrow, 1st September.

First, let me quickly remind you of what TTS is.

TTS is the number one e-guide to profitable niche trainer / track combinations. It focuses in only on horses starting at 14/1 or shorter, to ensure that all qualifiers are fancied to run well.

TTS only operates between tomorrow (i.e. start of September) and end of April, which we consider to be the ‘true’ National Hunt season.

Financially, backing all TTS horses at SP last season would have returned a profit - to just £20 stakes - of £11,150. Now I can’t promise that the trainers will perform so well this season, but if they only do a quarter as well, that’s still more than £2,750 profit at SP.

If using an exchange such as Betfair, where odds are on average 16% higher, you would have returned over £12,000, after paying commission.

TTS horses won on average 35.51% of the time last season, and were placed in the first three a staggering 62.89% of the time. That means over one in three runners was a winner, and almost two out of every three runners was placed.

TO GET YOUR COPY

To get your copy, simply go to the relevant section below, depending on whether you’ve bought or subscribed to either TrainerTrackStats or TrainerFlatStats before, and select the option that suits you best. [I know I don't have to say this, but if you've never been a member and you select the Existing Customer option, your access will be revoked amid embarrassment for both of us...]

NEW CUSTOMER

If you have never been a member of either TFS or TTS, please click here.

EXISTING CUSTOMER

If you have already been a member of either TFS or TTS, please click here.

The action starts tomorrow at Newton Abbot with a couple of live chances!

Don’t miss out - get your copy now!
Matt

Phew-wee, dear reader. What a week! I’ve been slaving away putting the finishing touches to TTS (that’s TrainerTrackStats for those of you who are new, and those of you who have been hibernated for the last several months..), and I have to say it’s the best yet.

There are some really strong trends, and the biggest problem I had (apart from all the bloody formatting in Word!) was deciding who to exclude.

I decided that I didn’t want an average of more than three horses to back per day, so I drew the line at a maximum of three trainers per track. Some tracks have less than that, but none have more.

Many of our old friends from last year re-appear (unsurprisingly), and there are new kids on the block as well. Some of these are obvious, like David Pipe, but some are much less so, like Paul Keane and Alison Thorpe.

One thing unites all of the trainers in TrainerTrackStats: they have all been notably successful at a given course with a specific type of horse, or in a specific type of race.

As well as the guide, which now covers all courses bar Cartmel and Worcester (pretty much all summer jumping only at these tracks, and Worcester is currently subaquatic!), I have appended all of the trainers who were under consideration for entry due to their positive trends. This amounts to the small matter of 244 possibles!

I whittled these down to 102 for the guide itself, using a stars system, as follows:

Each trainer received a star for any of the following (with horses starting at 14/1 or shorter, between September and April over the last five seasons):

- 15 or more winners at the track
- Strike Rate of 35% or more (winners to runners)
- A profit of 25 units or more to a 1 unit stake
- A profit of 1.25 units per runner to a 1 unit stake

In most cases, trainers have at least two stars, and in one case, a trainer has all four stars. He is a good betting friend of mine, Alan King, but if you want to know where he is the TOP top man, you’ll need to get the guide…

I’ll send you an email later today to let you know how you can get a copy, and of course, as regular readers of my blog, you will get the best deal. Well…. almost the best deal.

The best deal of all is reserved for my existing customers. If you’ve already bought TFS and/or TTS, or a current subscriber to Laying System, you’re in for a particularly special offer, as a thank you from me for being a loyal customer.

More to follow…. but for now, let’s get to the Friday Fun….

This week, say hello to the funniest cross-dresser on the planet (not sure how much competition there is for that coveted award)…. Mr Eddie Izzard…. (warning, expletives from the outset, don’t play in the office without headphones!)

Good weekend to you all, and look out for the TTS email later today!

Matt

Hello again, dear reader, from your occasional posting virtual horse racing friend.

Before I begin, another apology…. Now I would never advise anybody to ask me to navigate for them on a road trip, and my pedantic (though absolutely correct) correspondent Kev has highlighted another error in my scribblings. This time, it relates to the part of France I was in at the weekend.

It seems that I was not in Brittany, but rather in Pas De Calais, some couple of hundred miles east along the coast. Nevertheless, it was marvellous, and the first of the ‘vin’ has been consumed.

Kev likes to pick me up on my errors and, as one pedant to another, I like to be corrected! Thanks mate!

On to horsey stuff, and I just wanted to give you a quick update on TrainerTrackStats’ progress. Well, the research is now complete and today, I shall be ‘making the cut’ (i.e. deciding which trainers get in and which do not).

I will share with you those that miss the cut, to give you an indication of the data in the guide, but also because these guys are worth following in their own right.

Look out for a further post on this, either late tomorrow or Saturday.

I am really excited about the information I’ve gathered, and am looking forward to sharing it.

Onto today’s racing and, although it looks pretty miserable fare, I think I’ve found a couple of opportunities.

Firstly, let’s rock up to Musselburgh (where my mate Jerry is punting today - strange venue for a South London based Chelsea fan, but he has business up that way which I guess is why he’s there rather than at Lingfield!).

In the 5f sprints, high numbers have been favoured on fast ground for years. So, I’ll cut this fourteen runner affair down to size by only looking at double figure draws (could be careless as the forecast favourite is in box 9…).

The five of interest to me then are, in racecard order, Strensall, Methaaly, Strawberry Patch, Seafield Towers, and Mutayam.

Strensall: All 8 wins have been over 5f, 7 of 8 on good ground or faster. Course and distance winner operating in the right grade, from almost the pick of the draw and with a decent jockey up. Very interesting.

Methaaly: Never won at 5f, though has come close (all 3 wins at 6f). Never won a handicap in this class. I’m not sure about the apprentice jockey either. Swerve.

Strawberry Patch: 3 times a course and distance winner; all four career wins over 5f; has not won in this class since 2004; last two course and distance starts, was outclassed in higher grade, then was unlucky in running and not beaten far at this level. Interesting each way contender at big price.

Seafield Towers: Not won for two years, formerly useful, but seems very much on the downgrade now. Finished almost last or last in eight of last nine starts. Big leap of faith required.

Mutayam: 1 win from 37 starts, and that a 66/1 shocker 3 years ago. Hasn’t been in the first four in TWENTY starts since. Won’t change that today.

So for me, the 25 on betfair about Strensall looks huge, and the Strawberry Patch at around 16’s is also worthy of each way interest.

On the laying side of things, I’ll wander down to Lingfield, and take a couple on.

Firstly, Central Force in the 2.50 looks the most consistent, but may very well not have the race run to suit today. In a race with a lot of contenders, he looks short enough at around 5/2.

At 4.20, a nothing looking maiden has Richard Hannon’s Ike Quebec currently trading at 3.15. Having his first run on the sand today, he looks a false favourite to me. V Haigh’s Honey Monster has the best form, is open to improvement (as is the favourite, and just about every other horse in the race!), and has a decent sand run under his belt.

There are other possibles in the race as well, with Mark Johnston’s Cordon Bleu, as well as unexposed horses from the yards of Stan Moore, Jamie Osborne, Neville Callaghan, and Marcus Tregoning, so Hannon’s horse is a lay for me.

Hope your punting is treating you well, and that you’re almost ready for some jumping action!

Matt

Apologies, dear reader, for the lack of content here over the past few days, and for the fact that it is likely to be the case until the weekend.

The reasons are varied, but mainly revolve around time away from the laptop and time researching TTS (for which I am currently a bit behind schedule).

Special apologies to subscribers to my email services, who will have noticed that they did not receive their usual daily mails yesterday. Although there were no qualifiers for either service, I was unable to share this information, due to the fact that apparently the French do not need internet cafe’s. I couldn’t find one open in the whole of Brittany (well, Boulogne or Calais anyway!).

Which leads me on to where I’ve been for the last couple of days….

Now I fancy myself as a bit of a cunning linguist (hoo hoo hoo) when it comes to English, but it’s only when you put yourself in a different country that you truly appreciate the joys of rudimentary communication. A weekend pootling around the Breton, trying to make myself understood in my pidjun parlance was really great.

To anyone who lives in the South of England, I seriously recommend doing what I and my lady friend did: drive to Folkestone, hop on the Eurotunnel, and emerge in Calais barely half an hour later.

We parked the car in the FREE car park next to the train station and, without a plan, just jumped on a train in a direction. Alas, due to our timescale (we only had two days), we were limited in where we could get to (direct trains from Calais only go as far as Amiens to the West or Lille to the East).

Nevertheless, we decided on Boulogne-sur-mer, which was about 40 minutes away. A short amble with our little backpacks and we found a hotel for the night. Then for some serious strolling. Lovely beaches there, and we had a couple of bieres along the front.

Then a long leisurely dinner (steak au poivre) with a decent Crozes Hermitage, and a spot of cognac before retiring.

Yesterday, we stopped between Boulogne and Calais in a little place called Wimille Wimereux (or Wimmy Wimmy as we pronounced it). It’s ostensibly a nothing little village stop, but it’s right on the Breton coast, so we walked down to the beach, and strolled and sat and ate ice cream and strolled and sat and drank a beer and strolled, then had lunch.

A weird thing about Brittany is that one of the food specialities is ‘Welsh’. That is, welsh rarebit (or cheese on toast if you prefer).

Well, I swear that I have never seen so much cheese on a single meal in my life.
A two inch deep, six inch across, terrine dish had a piece of bread (think Sunblest, not baguette), and a slice of ham in it. The remainder was then filled to within about a quarter of an inch of the brim with what looked and tasted like (and therefore probably was!) Red Leicester.

It truly was a dinner to make Elvis Presley baulk at the thought of the effect it might have on his heart!

Having fished through the fromage for the toast and ham, I emerged slightly punch drunk from cheese consumption into the afternoon breeze once more.

I managed to get the train times wrong (incidentally, very clean and punctual train, just not very frequent), so we strolled the other side of the station into fields and countryside. Lots of fields full of maize, and a few kids chucking water at each other, and a couple of cows, were the only things we encountered. Marvellous.

Then back to Calais to pick up the car, and do some serious booze cruise shopping. I’m a big fan of French white wines and Italian reds. In the absence of anything decent in the latter camp, I treated myself to some splendid looking Premier Cru’s from Alsace (Pinot Gris) and the Southwest (Sancerre, Montigny, Puilly-Fume), and also a couple of decent looking reds (Chateauneuf du Pape and a 1999 Fleurie).

These will be savoured before the next run, which will be soon.

Taking out my wine indulgence and a hearty dinner, and the whole affair cost me about £120 (£65 for the Eurotunnel, £35 for the room and breakfast, and £20 for the train tickets).

If you get the chance, try it!

Today is a logical Monday in racing terms and therefore I’ll not be wagering horses. However, the footy looks interesting tonight, and a treble featuring Liverpool, Celtic and Arsenal may very well reward at best priced 3.18 with Bet365. I’ll be having a slice of that.

For the rest of the week, I’m afraid - as I’ve mentioned - there will be little of interest here, as I slave over the last elements of research and pulling the document together for TrainerTrackStats. The guide will be available before the website is ready, and there will of course be special offers for Nag3 readers.

So if you know of anybody who might be interested, be sure and use the ‘Tell A Friend’ link at the top left of the page.

Bon Mardi!
Matt

Picture quality not great, gag value immense, even after all these years. A real Bank Holiday treat, dear reader….

Crikey, is it Friday already, dear reader? And not just any old Friday, but Friday before a Bank Holiday! Woohoo!

Now lest you are concerned about the forecast (those readers in Australia and NZ need not fret, nor need you gloat!!), let me assure you that the Met Office is predicting broadly sunny weather for the weekend. And of course, the Met Office are known for their infallibility… Ahem… Well, at least it gives us hope!

Now then, I know we’ve only just finished York’s Juddmonte meeting and - as I’ve mentioned - we are not yet even at the August Bank Holiday.

But I need to remind you that darker times are ahead…

Yes, racing fans, the evening racing will draw to a close next week (although there will be plenty of floodlit action from Wolves, Kempton and the new Dundalk - not to mention Great Leighs if it ever opens!), and the jumping action starts to ramp up from the beginning of September.

In my piece yesterday, apart from blowing out on the placepot at York (though Mine ran a great race in 4th at 16/1, and I did tip the 2yo to win the Nunthorpe! Amazing training performance from a brilliant up and coming trainer. Look out for John Best), I managed to bag the forecast at Chester (the third horse mentioned in the exacta was a non-runner).

Incidentally, the third home in that race was the only other horse with experience and was the fourth best drawn horse in the race. Shocking then that his odds were 80/1!!!

My tip in the sprint, Calypso King, was a non-runner.

But what I really want to mention - again - is the amazing power of backing trainers at tracks. Although Jonjo’s chaser was disappointing at Stratford, the boys at Fontwell did me proud.

Here is the full tale of the tape for the trainers flagged up yesterday:

5.25 1st 25/1, 2nd 33/1, 4th 8/1, 6th 25/1, 11th 16/1, PU 10/1
5.55 6th 4/1, UR 16/1
6.25 1st 11/2, 3rd 14/1
6.55 No runners
7.25 5th 14/1
7.55 4th 25/1

Brendan Powell and Alan King, described by me yesterday as legends, underlined their status on this card.

Powell slammed in the forecast in the first (paid £621.27!) with 25/1 and 33/1 shots; King snaffled the third with an 11/2 shot (Powell only managing 3rd at 14/1).

The other lesser trainers had some huge priced beasties run close but without any danger of rolled tobacco.

A unit on each of the runners last night would have returned a very tidy profit.

As a further teaser for you, I’ve put the candidate trainer stats up on a page… but with the trainers names missing! And, in case you think you can compare the table with the Racing Post charts or some such, I’ve got some bad news for you. I only look at the record from September to April, and I only look at horses priced 14/1 or shorter. I know, I’m a sneaky blighter.

Anyway, if you’d like to see what’s going on, have a look at my TrainerTrackStats preview page.

Bear in mind that, unless stated otherwise, the ‘fine tuning’ has yet to be done. That is, the records are for all of a trainer’s runners in the defined time and price parameters. But you’ll get the idea, for sure.

Like I said, I’m excited about this season, because there are so many strong trends. The problem is going to be whittling them down. I think what I’ll do this season is nominate the top two or three a la TrainerFlatStats, and mention the others as worthy of a second glance (though for subscribers they’ll not feature in the emails). That said, this is not yet caste in stone.

I don’t really fancy much today, but draw bias at Thirsk (high numbers in sprints on good to firm) leads me to take a close look at Call For Liberty in the 1.30 (best form, best draw). His chief rivals, in the betting at least, are drawn 2 and 3 (i.e. almost the worst draws possible).

In the 4.45, a 5f sprint, its interesting that the top four in the market are all badly drawn. Racing Post informs us that 7/10 5f sprints this season have gone to the top three stalls. Perm them in exactas and CSF’s (half stake on each). That’s Yorke’s Folly, Smiddy Hill, and Miacarla. It may also be worth chucking in Princess Cleo (drawn 10) for a great chance to collect.

That’s it from me. Back later with Friday fun, though please note there may be little of interest on the blog this weekend, as I will be researching Trainer Track Stats and may try to get away for a day or two as well.

Finally, just a quick line to say thank you to those people who were kind enough to comment on my little story the other day. I know it didn’t really belong here, but I just wanted to give a virtual voice to some of my thoughts. Thanks again.

Until later, pip pip!
Matt

Its one of those days today, dear reader, when everywhere I look, I think I fancy one. Strange, as the racing is fiendishly hard today.

I’ll start at York with a placepot:

1. Dark Angel / Drawnfromthepast (e/w bet) / Dedo / New Jersey
2. Fleeting Spirit
3. Smart Enough / Flipando / Docofthebay / We’ll Come
4. Magnus / Moorhouse Lad / Hoh Mike / Kingsgate Native (maiden 2yo in all age Group 1!!!)
5. Mine (great chance) / Dabbers Ridge / Somnus
6. Winter Sunrise

192 x 20p = £38.40

Elsewhere, and up to Chester for the evening meeting. Some biggish fields mean there may be some draw bias to play with (low numbers very strongly favoured, as you probably know).

In the 6.40, a 2yo maiden, the three most experienced horses (Far Gone, Harry Gee and Madame Rio) are drawn 1, 2 and 3. Given that experience in a 2yo maiden is usually worth a couple of lengths at the gate, I will perm these three in a combination exacta to get away and stay away.

Half an hour later, in the 5f sprint, I like Calypso King. He has only been drawn well once out of three starts here at Chester, and won that race. From the four box today, he has a great draw for his style of racing. I’m hoping he can sit in behind the pace, and if/when the split comes, scoot through in the final two furlongs. 10/1 or bigger will be very alluring…

And then we go to the jumps cards. I’m now pretty well advanced with my research for TrainerTrackStats, the jumping equivalent of TrainerFlatStats, and I don’t mind admitting that I’m VERY excited about what I’m seeing.

I’ve currently got just over 275 possible trainer / track combinations to whittle down, and there are some tasty fish in that catch!

At Fontwell, legends Alan King and Brendan Powell are always worthy of respect. But look out also for Charlie Mann, J W Mullins, Mrs A M Thorpe, and Peter Bowen.

Meanwhile, over at Stratford, Jonjo’s In Extra Time looks tempting in the handicap chase.

A punting frenzy then for yours truly. Normally, when I feel like this about the racing, I’m happy to break even at the end of the day…. Your card is marked accordingly!

Matt

Hello from Weymouth, dear reader, as I continue my ongoing battle with technology, notably the heap of steaming excrement known also as Windows Vista.

That poxy operating system has stuffed up my laptop to such a degree now that I can only use my own wifi connection (itself enjoying a break from me caning it with requests for data transfer) with it. Even though I am the administrator for my pc, it will not allow me to change any settings. I despair! This post is written from a nice little internet cafe in Weymouth: Portland really is a place to get away from it all, including dial up and mobile phone signals. I can’t get either up there!!!

Enough already. After a typically quiet Monday, racing explodes into life today with the start of the York Ebor meeting.

The undoubted highlight of the day, and one of the races of the season, is the Juddmonte International Stakes.

This race pitches the Derby winner (Authorized) against the Eclipse winner (Notnowcato) against the King George winner (Dylan Thomas). Chuck in the sand monster Asiatic Boy and the perennial Group 1 scrapper, Duke of Marmalade, and its a race short in numbers but titanium strong in class.

Authorized looked the most impressive Derby winner for a few years, but we mustn’t forget that Derby winners’ subsequent record (especially against older horses) is pretty atrocious. The last few have failed to win another race post-Epsom.

I don’t think Authorized will struggle to get his nose in front again, but he may do today.

The race here is over a mile and a quarter, and he was beaten by Notnowcato in the Eclipse over this trip. Indeed, ‘cato was ridden tactically superbly that day by Ryan Moore but, in case you think it might have been a fluke, remember that he also won the Eclipse the previous year.

Sir Michael Stoute can learn little from any other living soul when it comes to training older horses, and ‘cato may come out on top again.

Dylan Thomas is another horse who has improved into his post-Classic year, and was unequivocal in despatching a sub-standard King George field last time out.

This is a sterner examination, and I also believe he is better over slightly further.

The Duke (Of Marmalade) has been competing with credit in top races this season, and will likely enjoy the ten furlong trip today, but I don’t feel he has quite the penchant for this distance that ‘cato does.

Asiatic Boy is a class horse. On sand. He ran as well as could be expected in the Sussex Stakes, but a point to note about top sand horses (indeed all sand horses) is that they appreciate an end to end gallop. Despite the presence of a pacemaker in here, I expect this to develop into a three furlong sprint, and the Boy to beat only the ‘bunny’ home. He will return on dirt and win at a nice price before the season is out - indeed, I’d love to back him in the Breeders Cup Classic where he’d beat any of today’s rivals.

So I’m quite strong on Notnowcato today, and will happily lay Asiatic Boy for a place until the cows come home (and they’re a loooooooooong way from home, like me, right now!).

It’s a very tough looking card indeed, but one I fancy at a decent price in the Acomb Stakes is Clive Brittain’s Mut’Ab. He’s quick, and has been running with a lot of credit in two decent maidens (just behind Campanologist last time). At around 20/1, he’s worth a small interest.

Good luck with your Eboracum wagers.
Matt

Well, dear reader, the first full week’s results are in for Racing Members Club and, after a fantastic week, the weekend has been nothing shy of awful.

Three winners at decent prices from five selections over Saturday and Sunday have taken all of the lustre off an impressive previous five days.

The full results are as follows:

16 losers and just four winners (80% strike rate), but the winners came at decent prices, and knocked the stuffing out of good run of losers.

Of course, a week is too short a window to fully and fairly appraise a laying service, which can always take hits in the short term. However, the downside risk of laying 7, 8 or 9/1 shots is often not something that people find palatable. Many of the selections nominated by Racing Members Club are sent off nearer a double digit price than an odds on price.

Another thing with a service such as this (and indeed my own Laying System) is that by just receiving the selections, you cannot vouch for the logic that went into those picks.

[With Laying System, I can tell you that there are a number of factors I look at and, although I only offer a tipster type service, the horses put up by me are based on system criteria, rather than personal sentiment. Although this is sometimes frustrating - when I think one will win, like the other day - I have faith in the overall
ability of the method to find overbet losers].

Ultimately, I have to say the jury is still out on Racing Members Club. I cannot say anything about how they find their lays, and I will continue to monitor with interest how the runners progress. I will not, however, be posting them to the blog any longer.

I’m off down to Dorset this afternoon, where I’ll be spending a couple of days at my father’s hotel (check the link here…), enjoying a touch of R&R.

Happy Monday.
Matt

Monday, dear reader, already. And what a wet one it is too, at least in this leafy alcove in Hackney.

After a couple of close ones on Saturday (Obe Gold especially), Laying System got its only horse of the day beaten (out of the frame at 7/4) for a good Sunday, following on from four out four turned over on Saturday. In fairness, this was much needed after a couple of decent priced winners in the week set us back a bit.

I chose not to play the footy yesterday, and rightly so. I fancied Manchester United, but they are a big toothless basking shark at the moment, and need to find their stride quickly, before its over for them.

As for Liverpool and Chelsea, the only word I can use for the refereeing performace of Rob Styles is ‘inept’.

In a game with a fair amount of huff and puff, but very little ‘blow your house in’, Styles barely had a decision to make. There wasn’t a bad tackle in the game (though there were a few petulant little kicks), and - happily - there wasn’t a dive in the game.

And yet, this became a card fest, with a fiesta of yellow and a touch of red that would have graced a Madrid derby, arbitrated by one of the Spanish League’s more finnicky middlemen.

After the farce at Fulham on Saturday, I am rapidly revising my opinion of video replays for goalmouth incidents.

The fact is that there is rarely much incident in a game that would require the ‘3rd umpire’ as rugby calls it. In a compelling end to end match, the video might be called for three times. Usually, it would not be required at all.

The main reason for my change of heart is not that I am especially in favour of technology encroaching in the beautiful game (rather, in this case, I am a traditionalist and believe that there should be some mistakes and grey areas to discuss in the pub).

However, there are mistakes and mistakes. The current litany of officiating howlers is unacceptable, and it is only the ineptitude of the men in black that sways me to suggest assistance for them.

Sure, the game is getting faster, and also there is more and more cash at stake, from the fans, from the clubs, and - of course, from us punters.

If I’d backed Liverpool yesterday, I’d be spitting feathers for longer than Rafa ranted.

My biggest worry now is that referees are trying to take their moment in the limelight. The days of a ref having a great game by being virtually anonymous are pretty much over. Step forward then, the cult of the referee ‘personality’.

It started with undoubtedly the best adjudicator of them all, Pierluigi Collina, a man whose bald head and Marty Feldman’esque stary eyes marked him out more for Hollywood bad guy roles than maintainer of the peace.

This guy’s credibility bestowed upon him cult status, as did his looks. Since then though, its been a slippery slope, with first the Spanish refs getting column inches for the issuance of ‘tarjetas’ (or cards as we like to call them), and then Graham Poll (a ref I actually like on balance) having that mare at the World Cup, when he gave one player THREE yellow cards before finally sending him off.

Lest we think its all doom and gloom, we should remember that Poll was only given that game (Australia vs Croatia) - acknowledged as the toughest group game to officiate, by a mile - because he was considered capable.

Indeed, a more satisfactory performance would have put Graham in Poll Position (duh!) for ref’ing the final.

But there are two many mistakes at the moment. Maybe its new season rustiness, maybe its the growing cult of the referee, maybe its just a comedy coincidence. Whatever the reason, it needs to change, and it needs to change very soon.

Until then, high on the cards market may be the play (although historically this has lost more than its gained).

Over in Fantasy Football Land, a better display from my boys saw me amass 56 points this weekend (would have been 60 but for Styles’ ineptitude costing me a clean sheet!).

However, for all of my good score here, I’m currently lounging outside of the UEFA Cup spots in 9th. Runaway early leader is Paddy Meagher’s Kicking Kings, whose team has amassed him 149 points and ranks him in the 5,000s out of 1,196,265 teams overall. A very fine start, Mr Meagher, but are you Wigan in disguise?

Heading the chasers at the moment is ‘thin air’, Paddy being 18 points clear of the next best unit, Irvin Lim’s SmokinTree&Strokin3s (which I presume is a reference to golf, somehow?). Its then a further ten back to Darren Smith, with seven more teams within a further ten points.

A special mention for Danny Edwards’ team, who are currently the strongest in the league (i.e. they prop up everyone else!). Poor Danny has gone for Manchester United players, and has also been unlucky with a few injuries. I’m sure your boys will come good soon.

Back later with a review of Racing Members Club, and the full tale of the tape on that laying service.

Matt

Happy Sunday, dear reader, and a quick catch up on yesterday.

First of all, thanks to Kev for pointing out that one of my two for the Hungerford was in fact a filly, which I should have discounted according to my own criteria. Red Evie went on to win, and the horse I liked, Stronghold, ran a good 3rd at 9/1.

In the Great St Wilfred Handicap at Ripon, it seems the world and his wife were tipping Obe Brave, and the horse very nearly obliged. He was beaten a short head at 14/1, having been available at double those odds earlier.

Interesting to note that the first six home were drawn 20,22,9,21,19,23. In other words, five of the first six home were the five highest drawn horses.

The obvious one to take from the race then is Indian Trail, who ran a blinder from what was clearly an impossible draw to be beaten only a short head and half a length.

This one looks likely to win a big sprint handicap this season, when better drawn.

A fine day for the Laying System lays, with four beaten from four, and another winner at 4/1 from four selections for TrainerFlatStats (also a 2nd and a 3rd) sees that service remain in fine form. Links to these services are on the left of the page under the ‘LINKS’ heading, surprisingly enough!

Today’s Racing Members Club lays are:

17.00 Bath 5 Dixieland Boy

17.35 Tram 5 Lucys Mate

They had two winners yesterday, which sets things back a little, but overall are still well in front. I’ll present the week’s picture later today or tomorrow, with a short review.

Enjoy your Sunday. I’m off for a roast in the pub, along with a couple of Guinnesses and a big TV to watch footy. (Incidentally, Fulham were inept yesterday and let my double down. I did however have a decent poke at Pompey and ended up nicely up on the day).

Matt

Ah, Saturday, dear reader, and at last a few moments to surface for air.

Firstly, apologies for the brevity of most of my posts this past week. As you may have gathered, I’ve been a busy bunny and, to make matters worse, my laptop had a ‘moment’ yesterday which caused great consternation in this part of Hackney!

All seems to have reverted to normal now, and I am reminded of the need to back up my data, through bitter experience…

The reason for my busyness is that I have been gleefully immersed in a stats and data fest, as a result of my research for TrainerTrackStats. The trends seem to be stronger than ever and I’m excited about some of the new boys appearing for the first time, David Pipe being the key one.

More on this over the next fortnight, but suffice it to say, I’m already looking forward to the jumps season getting started ‘for real’ in September.

Today’s racing looks competitive, and no more so than Ripon’s insoluble Great St Wilfred Handicap, a classic cavalry charge over three quarters of a mile.

Although there are 23 runners, the stats point strongly to a high draw bias, with eight of the last ten winners drawn within eight boxes of the top draw. The other two winners were drawn 2 and 4, both on good to firm. It seems that when the ground is genuinely fast both rails are favoured.

Today, with the going described as good, I expect to be able to discount any horse exiting a gate numbered 16 or lower.

This is a race for decent priced winners, with eight of the last ten winners figuring at double digit odds, though no winner was greater than 20/1.

Four year olds have a fine record, and no fewer than six of the last ten winners were from this age group.

On this basis, the unexposed course and distance winner Obe Brave will carry my shekels today. He has some decent form in the book, goes well fresh and has the stats in his favour. Available at 20/1 (22 on betfair, interestingly he is comfortably the second best backed horse in the race as I write with £22,000 matched out of a total of £148,000).

Over at Newbury, the Hungerford Stakes, a Group 2 over a furlong shy of a mile, looks a belter of a race.

Again, there are some pretty strong trends, as follows:

4 or 5yo winner: 8/10
13/2 or shorter: 9/10
9 stone or less: 8/10
Colts/ geldings: 9/10
Gosden: 3/10

I reluctantly discount the fillies in the race (Wake Up Maggie and Silver Touch), because the boys tend to hold sway at the highest level in Group races. (Over the last five seasons in all sex Group races, fillies shorter than 15/2 have won 12.5% of the time compared with colts at 15/2 or shorter winning 22%).

Focusing on 4 or 5 year old colts whose odds are around 7/1 or shorter, gives us Red Evie and Stronghold. Although the former is unbeaten at this track, this is clearly a race John Gosden loves to win (three winners and a third from just five runners in the past decade), and his Stronghold will do for me.

Finally, the increasingly impressive Racing Members Club continues its rich vein of form with both of its lays yesterday well and truly stuffed. That’s now 14 from 15 beaten, which is excellent.

I’ll post the selections today and tomorrow, before posting a review of the service.

Sign up here: http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Cheers
Matt

I think these guys are called Barry and Stuart. They’re two very funny and clever Scottish guys…

Enjoy.

Matt

Just a quick post today, dear reader, as my computer has gone haywire. Do Not Buy Windows Vista!!!

After getting all five beaten yesterday, making it 12 out of 13 beaten, Racing Members Club has two lays today:

17.10 Tram 2 Lyical Assassin

20.10 Tram 5 Bennys Quest

You can sign up at http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Also, TrainerFlatStats continues in great form, with the sole runner yesterday obliging at a juicy 6/1.

Laying System fared less well, with two losers (2/1 and 10/3) but also two decent priced winners (7/2 and 5/1). I felt it looked trappy yesterday, and so it proved.

Back later with the usual Friday fun, to help you ease into the weekend.

Matt