Well, dear reader, it seems I was foolish and premature (not the first time I’ve been either of those two things!) in writing off the inimitable Kazakh, Alexandre Vinokourov.

After smashing the field to pieces on Saturday in the ‘contre le montre’, he wilted like a badly wilting wilty thing on Sunday in the Pyrenees.

But the man with more stitches in his knees than I have in my jimjams made a superlative comeback of Lazarus proportions yesterday, again riding away from the field, and descending down a mountain path at 60mph to score his second stage victory of the race.

Having lost about half an hour on Sunday, he is now no threat to the overall lead in the race and, with a rest day today, it’s far from impossible that he could win the last mountain stage tomorrow. Certainly, the main players for the overall title will not chase him, and none of the other riders can live with him in the form he showed yesterday.

Furthermore, on Saturday, there is the second and final time trial, for which he must again be favourite.

And, as if four possible stage wins wasn’t enough, he has previously won the final stage on the Champs Elysee, an event traditionally collared by a sprinter.

What a bizarre situation it would be if a rider won five stages of the Tour, and yet still didn’t finish in the top 20 overall!

I have nothing but admiration for this guy, for the way he has refused to give up, and has fought on with honour and humility. He is the ultimate sportsman for me right now. ‘Chapeau’, as they say in France. (Or ‘hats off’, as we might say).

Onto racing, and wouldn’t you just know it… As I launch the trial of my laying system, so we get smacked in the chops with an 11/2 winner. No matter, a few points loss on the day, but the overall pattern is positive, and let’s see where we are come the end of the week.

Today’s lays are:

(Incidentally, Tonnante was one of my alternative ten to follow for the season, so I have mixed feelings about that one! You can read about the other mutts I tipped up here.)

On the punting front, Neil Callan did indeed plough Beverley’s near side rail yesterday as hoped (and many others followed him), and he prevailed by a comfortable margin for a nice 10/3 winner for me and TrainerFlatStats punters too.

Over at Windsor, my bet of the day - Marozi - fared less well, coming in a well outpointed 4th. He travelled like a winner until the business end of the race, but found nought. Disappointing, and I suspect he may be a much better horse on sand. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this one race in the States before the season is out. He’s certainly bred for it.

I can’t find anything worth backing today, so - like my friends at the Tour - I shall have a rest day. It’s high time I did some work!

Pip pip!
Matt

Quick update, dear reader, to request that you hold fire on signing up for Laying System trial just yet.

There are three reasons for this:

1. I’ve cocked up the subscribe buttons (thanks to Roger for letting me know)!

2. I’ll be putting the selections on here this week so you get a ‘bonus’ week’s trial if you like.

3. I’ll also be offering my loyal Nag readers a better price than the official site.

Cheers
Matt

Wow! What an amazing sporting weekend, dear reader.

Even my seasonal sickness subsided in awe of the televisual treats served up over the last two days.

For me the highlights were the Tour (of course), where Vino first proved he was superhuman by slamming the entire field in the time trial, and then proved he was all too human by self-combusting in the Pyrenees. As predicted in my preview, he had a rush of blood on Saturday and didn’t save enough for the following days. His race is now run. (My stage tips Cancellara and Kloden both fell in the time trial, Canc twice!)

The first Pyrenean stage yesterday found out many more than just Vinokourov though. Indeed, by the end of the stage, the race was (and is) now down to three riders realistically. They are the impressive Dane Michael Rasmussen, Spanish wonderkid Alberto Contador, and gritty Aussie Cadel Evans.

I’ve backed Contador and Evans to win, and Evans for top 3 and top 6 finishes. At the moment, those bets look ok (I also backed Iban Mayo to win - ahem), but I’m worried about the continued impressive form shown by Rasmussen.

Today will be another real test for the protagonists, and I expect Contador to take time off Rasmussen. He looked really fresh when winning yesterday, and he can explode away up a mountain like few others. The question is how much time he can steal - he won’t be able to go too early, so it will again be fascinating to watch.

For Evans, he just needs to hang in there for as long as possible, knowing that he can get at least some time back in the time trial on Saturday but - to be honest - I’ll be happy to see him finish on the podium.

Elsewhere, the Open served up a treat to finish, as my man Sergio lost his putting touch and choked away his chance of a Major. I’d traded out to lock in some money (something I usually do these days, and something I recommend everyone does - its better to have some cash than be greedy and risk losing the lot, as Sergio and a million before him have proved).

Garcia played ok yesterday, and probably didn’t deserve his over par score. Harrington was superb, and you could see what it meant to him. He said after the event that if he’d lost (having found water TWICE on the last hole), he might never have played again. I believe him too.

Great guy, and a great player, and - finally - a European winner. Hats off!

In the GP at Nurburgring, Lewis Hamilton could only manage 9th after his nasty smash in qualifying. Partial relief came for him in the fact that Alonso, and not Raikkonen (who was on a hat-trick), won the race. Indeed, the Finn failed to finnish (geddit?!). Alonso is now Hamilton’s closest rival.

The title looks very interesting now, with just 11 points between the top three. Personally, I think Hamilton will not win, but should still be feted for an amazing debut season. His future is golden, and the experience of crashing on Saturday will surely serve him well in the future.

Cricket, and KP’s cracking innings (again) put England in the plum seat against the Indians. Our favourite South African really is a master with the bat and even I like to watch him play - not many cricketers can lay claim to that! (Of course, he’s a fine Hampshire man these days too, my adopted county on the basis that Dorset are about the worst Minor Counties side imaginable).

All of the above was a veritable cornucopia of sporting spectacles. The horse racing was another damp squib, with the pick of it rained off. The exception was an incredible little filly called Turbo Linn.

I’ve laid her in her last two races now, and she’s cocked a snook in my direction on both occasions. She’s quick, and she’s on the upgrade. Having started life running in bumpers around the gaffs, she has improved a ton this season, and who knows how good she is? A tilt at the Irish St Leger is mooted next, and I’ll think twice before laying her a third time…!

Today, they race at Beverley again, and the soft ground may lead to some of the runners tacking over near side again. There seems to be a strip of ground closest to the stands rail that more than justifies the excursion over there, in that its a good bit faster than the rest of the track.

I’ll be keeping an eye out for Melalchrist tonight. He’s drawn 1 of 10, and I just wonder whether his jockey, Neil Callan, will veer left from the stalls, and try to make a solo sprint for the cash. (Knowing jockeys, who are usually reluctant to venture away from the crowd, I suspect not).

I’d be very interested to hear from any regular Beverley racegoers, who may have an opinion on the draw and - particularly - the merit of going stands side on soft ground.

My system has thrown up a plethora of horses to lay today, and you can see these - and indeed its historical performance since I started tracking it - here:

http://www.laying-system.com

After a corrective few days, I’m expecting the upward trend to resume this week, and I’ll be posting the selections here for your edification.

Over at Windsor tonight, where low numbers have the call in soft ground sprints, I really fancy the unexposed Marozi. I think Michael Jarvis is an excellent trainer, and this horse’s soft ground second last season looks good enough in the context of this race.

Given that many of the horses he beat that day are now rated higher than his mark of 80, and that he also has a Group 1 entry, he looks a generous price at around 7/4 at betfair. I was expecting this horse to be trading at around even money against pretty exposed opposition.

Maybe I’ll have the proverbial albumen on physiognomy (or egg on face, if you will) later, but I reckon this is a standout wager. The slight cautionary temperance is that getting stuck in on a Monday is generally not a good idea, in my experience. Nevertheless, I’ll fight my early week reticence on this occasion.

Keep your powder (mostly) dry!
Matt

Rejoice dear reader, for today the Tour picture becomes clearer. Today the riders will not race against each other, but rather they will race against the clock (in French, literally, contre le montre).

And in so doing, when no man can ask his teammates for support, or to chase a breakaway down, or to slow a rider who has scurried up a mountain, the men will become separated from the boys.

Except that in this race, they are all men. So it might be more correct to say the supermen will be separated from the men.

Semantic pedantics aside, and there are only a few with serious aspirations of winning today’s stage. For many others, notably Michael Rasmussen, but also Alberto and Alejandro (that’s Contador and Valverde to you), the day will be about damage limitation.

These guys know that Andreas Kloden will take time from them. They also fear that Cadel Evans and, to a lesser extent, Alex Vinokourov will distance themselves in the General Classement.

For Rasmussen, who is a mediocre time triallist, the biggest challenge will be to retain the golden jersey at day’s end.

Kloden is but 3 minutes 50 seconds back, Evans just 2′ 41″ behind the Great Dane. Both could surpass Rasmussen today.

That said, rumours of Razz’s demise may prove somewhat premature, as - although he isn’t the best TT’er by any stretch of the imagination - he has something to really fight for this time, and he’ll surely not have the luck that saw him crash twice in last year’s TT event.

Today, though, he’ll be delighted to lose just two minutes. He’ll be happy to lose three minutes, and he’ll likely not be too disappointed to lose three and a half minutes.

His biggest problem is that this is the first of two contre le montre’s in this year’s race, and he’ll not be allowed to get away in the Pyrenees as he was in the Alps. For me, Rasmussen’s chance of the overall victory is slim.

I expect there to be only a couple of GC contenders to come up smelling of roses today: Kloden and Evans.

Vino, despite his hugely admirable battling qualities (lesser men would long since have headed home), will try for a big ride today, but his knees are bloodied and stitched and - in truth - so is his will.

For all that I think Klodie and Cadel will enhance their overall prospects today, I don’t necessarily think they will win the stage. It’s worth remembering that Kloden has never won a Tour stage, but has finished second four times.

Today may be his maiden victory, but I’d rather side with a couple of others, namely Fabian Cancellara and Denis Menchov.

The first named is a TT specialist, having won the prologue in this race by a wide margin, and also the World TT Championship. His price of 6/4 reflects that, and - although those odds are skinny - he must be in the first two, bar a fall.

Menchov is a nag of an altogether blacker caste (that’s a dark horse, my friends!). He is an excellent clock racer, and came into the Tour as the team leader for Rabobank before being usurped by his mountaineering mate, Michael (of the Rasmussen clan).

This man is a mean TT’er and has a point to prove. 100/1 is a standout price on a guy with a genuine chance. Back him each way and you could easily be picking up a 25/1 payout for a place, perhaps better.

After a dismal run of trying to pick stage winners, I’m confident I have the first five home today.

So here we go:

1. Cancellara
2. Kloden
3. Menchov
4. Evans
5. Vinokourov (or maybe Kashechkin)

Time will tell. Quite literally today.

Matt

Today’s final cycle in the six cycle set for Betex Profits (remember, I had two goes on Monday) has yet again taken its muddy knees to the early bath, this time on the second leg of five.

Below I’ve repeated much of my preview from the start of the week, but now of course it is updated with this week’s experiences.

“The sales blurb says Jason Chesters (the author) now works one hour a day and makes £1000 a week. Well, if that was to be true, I wanted a slice of it! Alas, for all the hype, this pudding failed to rise. Indeed, I suspect the pudding mix was bereft of yeast… metaphorically speaking of course.

So what is Betting Exchange Profits (BEP), and how does it work? BEP is a 66 page ebook, which outlines the system and then goes into detail with examples of how it works.

I can now say with a degree of certainty that the things I found not to my liking in the guide are just plain wrong, as follows:

- I don’t agree with Jason’s contention that racing is fixed (except in a miniscule subset of races. This belief is peddled by losers looking for a scapegoat, rather than looking at their own betting habits).

- Crucially, the method and examples do not account for betting commission on winning trades. This difference of 5% per trade is especially important with an approach such as the one mooted here, where winnings from one trade are rolled onto a series of further trades.

- In the examples, Jason breaks a number of his own rules, such as price thresholds. This implies that the ’system’ is interpretable. I never like systems that are not absolute and categorical in their ruleset.

- The obvious system bet was discounted in one race in favour of another - less obvious - qualifier. The obvious horse lost and the other won.

- In suggesting the system will also work on sports, notably football, Jason suggests that you can use it blindly backing short favourites. For me, this will guarantee a trip to the poor house.

So… I was rightly pessimistic about the chances of this guide.

The nature of the system is that you need to monitor the pre-race market in the ten minutes leading up to the races to identify strong trends either for or against a given horse.

If you remember, I was looking for a series of five or six horses, which the author calls a ‘cycle’, and the cycle is one part of a set. So, basically, each day is one cycle of five (or seven if you work weekends) days (and therefore five cycles) in a week. The full five or seven cycles will be a set.

Based on the odds of the horses in the races, and their fluctuations prior to the races, you are urged to either back or lay outright or for a place. You should only select one horse per race, and you are trying to get five or six winners in a row (be they place lays, win only, or any of the other combinations).

I started with a notional £100 for each cycle and tried to increase it through the five races in the cycle. If I achieved this, I would stop and take my profit.

The theory is that one winner in the set (i.e. the series of cycles this week) will pay for losing days. So, I’m certainly not expecting every day to be a winning day, and indeed I wondered if we would have any winning days.

Jason reckons that in a seven day set, if you’re looking to get six in a row for a cycle, you should be able to consistently get two a week up. On that basis, between now and Friday I’m expecting at least one winning day in my quest for five up.

As it turned out, the first day saw me blow out on the first race. Whilst the system doesn’t say you should do this, I went straight back in again, and lo and behold, but if it didn’t deliver a winning cycle.

So Monday went -£100, then +£318.87, for a profit of £218.87.
Tuesday, went down on the 3rd leg of 5.
Wednesday, down on the 1st leg of 5.
Thursday, down on the second leg of 5.
And today, after Aaron’s Way finished third after I’d laid it for a place, the system went down on the 2nd leg.

Total loss on the week is a notional £181.13.

Indeed, were it not for me breaching the system rules myself and ‘going back to the well’ on Monday, it would have been a -£500 week.

This system is framed exclusively around the market and, as such, is way too simplistic in my opinion to be successful in the long term.

I didn’t like the writer’s style, I don’t like the system content, and I give this system a ‘Not Recommended’ mark.

Next week, we’ll be looking at another laying product for mostly short priced horses, this time a tipster service, rather than a system.

Now onto Friday Fun… and, as promised, a touch of Spike Milligan. It’s quite silly stuff and maybe not for everyone, but researching this has brought a smile to my fevered features today, so please bear with me if its not your bagatelle…

From Spike’s War Memoirs: Diary: Feb 28

Torrential rain. Trench flooded.

Contacted Gun Position.
MILLIGAN: Hello! Tell Sergeant Dawson I need a relief.
GUN POSITION: Who do you want?
M: Paulette Goddard
GP: What will be her duties?
M: Me.

The rain. Not only did it come down, it went up 6 feet, and then came down a second time.

“It’s good for the crops”, said MacArthur.
“I haven’t got any”, I said.
“I have. I’ve got a hundred acres in Somerset and three hundred in Canada”.
“It’s not raining there.”
“I know”, he said, pacing up and down. “And its very very worrying…”

Goblins, 1978

I’m a Goblin Tommy Cooper,
I can do tricks with a hat,
I can walk upside down with a barrow
So they’ve made me a Water Rat.

I can juggle with seventy skittles
Dive through a rubber tyre
I can sleep on the bottom of the Channel,
Did somebody call me a liar?

I’m a Goblin Tommy Cooper,
I fly round the room on a mat,
You ask me how I do it,
I’ll tell you, “Just like that”.

Soldier, Soldier 1987

There was a little soldier
Who went off to the war
To serve the King,
Which is the thing
That soldiers are made for.

But then that little soldier
Was blown to bits, was he.
All for his King
He did this thing:
How silly can you be?

Contagion: 1959

Elephants are contagious!
Be careful how you tread.
An elephant that’s been trodden on
Should be confined to bed!

Leopards are contagious too.
Be careful tiny tots.
They don’t give you a temperature
But lots and lots - of spots.

The Herring is a lucky fish,
From all disease inured.
Should he be ill when caught at sea:
Immediately - he’s cured!

Off back to my bed now, with a small grin on my face

Matt

So it’s Friday, and the weekend is once more upon us. Thoughts turn to lie ins, bacon, newspapers, and hours of TV sport… But I’m cooped up in my bed.

I had a headache most of yesterday, and the three ‘medicinal’ Guinnesses I had last evening didn’t alleviate the problem, nor has a good kip. So its official - I’ve got a lurgy.

At least there’s plenty to watch on the telly (right now, for instance, I’m ‘enjoying’ Sergio self destruct in his second round at the Open).

As for the horses, based on the weather outside here (p1551ng down), I’d expect Newbury to be abandoned.

Over at Nottingham, there’s not much to get inspired by, so I’ll take that theme and work it by having a look at the 3.20, a 15 runner seller(!).

Maybe its the bugs, maybe its the drugs, but I reckon there are a couple of 50/1 shots in here that are not without a chance.

In a race where few have ever won, still less having won on turf, Prince du Soleil would be an ironic winner in this weather. This horse actually won at Saint-Cloud and Maisons-Lafitte for Pascal Bary back in the last century, but has been regressive since, and hasn’t even run for two years.

However, he loves the mud and - in fairness - there aren’t too many poorer races around than this. For minimal units, he might give us a fun run.

I can’t have the favourite, Ruby Legend, as I don’t think he’ll go in the ground. That said, he’s got Spencer in the plate, and it’s not impossible he’ll win despite hating the underfoot.

My other rag for the race is Travelling Band. Another who hasn’t seen a racetrack for ages (this time 426 days), he won a nice Haydock novice hurdle in 2003 on soft going, and is worth a tiny tickle against a shocking bunch of donkeys.

What the BHB are doing serving up this kind of dirge on a Friday at a reasonably high class track is beyond me. But there we are.

Of the (relatively) unexposed ones in the race, Snake Hips ran his best race on soft two starts back, and should be competitive here.

I don’t have any strong lay fancies, though my system has thrown up a few which are too big for me to oppose: Red Chairman, Hazelnut, and the aforementioned Ruby Legend, as well as Circle of Love at Newbury, should it get the thumbs up.

Over at the Tour, and a strange stage yesterday: what should have been a relatively easy day was made an end to end gallop by the Astana team (that of Messrs Vinokourov and Kloden) assuming control at the front of the peloton and putting the hammer down.

The tactic is, I reckon, designed to empty the legs of some of Vino and Klodie’s rivals ahead of the first time trial tomorrow. Its an interesting strategy, and one that might just work. Certainly, Christophe Moreau, the big French hope was dropped yesterday and waved his ‘maillot jaune reve’ (yellow jersey dream, for the non-Francophiles) goodbye.

I wonder if they’ll continue with the high tempo today… Stage 12, for that’s how far we’ve come, is not that simple, containing as it does three Category 4 climbs and - near the finish - a Category 2 hillock.

I reckon that again the usual three must be followed: Voigt, Gilbert and Casar, but I also wouldn’t rule out a sprint finish, in which case I’ll side with Hushovd and Pozzato. I’ve lost all confidence in my ability to pick stage winners, so between the five of these guys, I’ll risk all of ten pounds..!

Finally, I’ll be putting Betting Exchange Profits through its paces for the last time, and reporting on its overall performace later. I’ll also bring you some Friday Fun, from the late great Spike Milligan, so stay tuned!

Matt

Good morning dear reader once again, from my comfy sofa in Hackney and, as I watch the golf on TV, I am dribbly-mouthed at the sporting action in prospect from now until Sunday.

Not only has The Open Golf Championship started this morning, with the Tigger bidding for three Open pots in a row, but also the Tour will be ratcheted up still further with the first distance time trial on Saturday, followed by a return to the mountains (this time the Pyrenees) on Sunday.

Throw in the 1st Test against India, for those of you who enjoy cricket (personally, I’m only interested when the prospect of a touch of Aussie-baiting arises - apologies to some of my Antipodean readers!); the European Grand Prix from the Nurburgring will get the petrol heads greased up (though, again, not for me - I can’t even drive!); and there is cracking racing action from Newbury.

But it doesn’t even stop there. There is also the amazing Speedway World Championships from Poland…. OK, OK, I’m labouring the point now, but you catch my drift.

My advice is to grab some tinnies (or tea bags, whatever is your poison), stock up on TV dinners, get the shopping / DIY / dogwalking done very early, and prey for rain, so that your sports viewing edification is unhindered by other demands from the cherished ones around you.

I love to watch golf with a bet on - I’m a terrible golfer (and I mean terrible), but I’ve historically been a fair punter. Armed with the golf betting bible, Elliott’s Golf Form (if you bet on golf, you should have this book), I’ve found more than my fair share of winners in the past.

Alas, this year, I decided I didn’t have the time to do it any more, and I’ve missed it. So my tips for the Open this time are pretty uninformed, but I’ll offer you them nevertheless.

I have gone for experienced guys who know how to win on the European Tour. My three off the tee are: Retief Goosen, Michael Campbell and Sergio Garcia.

I don’t have time either to share with you their stats / my rationale for following them, but these are the trio that will carry my interest wagers this weekend.

Onto more common ground now, and yesterday’s racing saw the Betting Exchange Profits system go down on the first leg again, when Dresden Doll, whom I’d backed for a place, failed to get in the first half dozen.

The system still stands at +£18.87 in its trial, so I can’t be too unkind about it (yet), and we’ll see today whether it goes into positive or negative equity. More on that later.

My own little lay system is gathering pace: after a very promising start, 12th July saw it pick out four winners from ten selections (including 6/1 and 7/2 shots) to eat into my profits quite a bit.

Since then however, it’s picked 19 losers out of 20, including 2/1, 7/4, 5/4, 6/5 and 4/5 favourites.

I am still playing around with the system criteria a little, as I’m not a big fan of laying horses at anything bigger than 3/1 or thereabouts. This, of course, means I’ll probably find more winners, but there will be less pain associated with their prevalence on the podium.

More on this as the data gathers - for info, I have seven qualifiers today, and I am due a revers after 19 successful from 20. [Always keep in mind, "After a good run, expect a bad run. After a bad run, expect a good run."] Incidentally, there are not normally seven or ten qualifiers. The average is nearer three or four, which I find considerably more manageable.

The short ones in my septet for today are Rare Coincidence, Lavender Moon and Pentatonic, so we’ll see. Frankly, though, I’m braced for a ‘correction’. The overall pattern of losers to winners remains extremely promising and - at close of play yesterday - I’m £592 up for £20 units since 28th May (with all expenses accounted for).

On to Le Tour and, after getting two of my five against the field yesterday into the final breakaway quintet (Sandy Casar 50/1 and Jens Voigt 25/1), I was disappointed to watch Casar mistime his sprint by the minimum margin and finish second. I only put a couple of quid on each but, much more annoyingly, I’m still awaiting my first stage win of the race.

Sandy Casar, in white and in front, albeit a few metres after the line… Bugger.

Today, the peloton will cycle due west along the south coast of France, from Marseille to Montpellier. The course is mostly flat, but there will be meteorological challenges aplenty.

The forecast is for a scorcher, and the heat will be combined with strong coastal breezes, which will likely see the riders form arrow shaped echelons as they race. It’s all about aerodynamism and is a great spectacle. I’ll try to bring a picture of it tomorrow if I can source one.

To the winner today… yeah, like I know - I can’t pick my nose! The betting has the sprinters to the fore, with Boonen at the top of the market (around 4/1 on betfair). I’m not sure the group will be together for a sprint finish.

However, as insurance, I’ll take my sprinter, Thor Hushovd, at a little over 8/1 in case it is a bunch finish. It’s worth remembering that, despite his daily skinny odds, Boonen only won one stage last year, and has only won one stage this year. Hushovd won two last year, and has also picked up one this year. He’s strong and may prevail if it becomes a cavalry charge for the line.

If it’s to be a breakaway, the usual suspects (Voigt, Casar) will be spent forces after yesterday, so I’ll side with a couple of my normal speculatives: Phillipe Gilbert (42 on betfair as I write) and Alessandro Ballan (26 on betfair).

I’ve nominated both previously and, as both are capable one day riders, I’ll shout them again, considerably more in hope than expectation. My combined stage wager will not reach double digit quids, so you can gauge my confidence for yourself!

That’s all for now. I’m off to make a cup of tea and watch a Tiger on the prowl…

Matt

It’s Wednesday again, dear reader, and thus the middle of the week looms large once more. By home time tonight, it will be the slippery slope to Friday…

Before then though, much sport is to be had. And we start today with a review of the Day Two action with the Betting Exchange Profits system.

You may remember from yesterday that the system actually drew first blood. Well, strictly, it did not, but having blown out on the very first leg of the first cycle I decided to go in again, and the system came up trumps, showing a return of £418.87 for my notionally invested £200.

Yesterday, alas, the third leg saw my five part ‘accer’ topple when Turn And River (which I had laid for a place) took the silver medal at Beverley.

So, the running total is now +£118.87, which is still creditable and - in fairness - better than I expected. We’ll have a better idea by the end of the week though, personally, I do still have serious reservations about the longer term sustainability of a system like this. We’ll see.

A much better laying proposition in my opinion, and actually only a bolt-on bonus to a very good systems review newsletter, is Terry Allen’s ‘Betting Insider’ letter. Regular readers will know I’ve been plugging this a fair bit recently. That’s because I think it’s very good, so I make no apology for that.

However, this is the last time I’ll mention it in despatches. The url, if you haven’t checked it out already, is:

www.thebettinginsider.com/nnn.htm

Elsewhere, at Beverley, the usually reliable draw continues to confound. Normally, high numbers hold a strong advantage, especially at sprint distances. But, currently, there are a lot of low drawn horses ploughing up the near side and obliging.

This was again the case yesterday with one exception. The sprint handicap saw the three highest drawn horses finish 1st, 3rd and 4th. Right now, Beverley is pretty much a no bet track for me, due to the unpredictability of the draw.

Saying that, I did lay Red River Rebel, beaten at 5/4 (it was one of my system horses) - but a(nother) lousy day at the Tour.

Although my overall selections for the race, Andreas Kloden and Cadel Evans, are well placed for my top 3 and top 6 wagers (touch wood), I can’t seem to buy a stage win.

And today looks like being one of the hardest stages to call. With a few Category 3 and 4 climbs in quite a long stage, and with the possibility of the Mistral winds picking up on the route into Marseille, there is a strong chance of some pileups today.

After yesterday’s gruelling route up the Galibier, the riders might have hoped for a little respite. But no such thing - at least, not until tomorrow.

By the way, yesterday saw Vinokourov probably wave his chance in the race goodbye. Kloden, his stated deputy in the Astana team, was finally given license to plug on ahead, seemingly a sure sign of where team allegiances are now. He looked very strong, and as though he was saving himself for the bigger battles to come.

I think he may be the most likely winner now, as his time trialling is probably the pick of the major players and he can easily pick Rasmussen off for two minutes and more in each of the two ‘contre le montres’.

Back to today’s stage, and it will certainly suit a one day racer type rider. There will be the usual ambitious strikers, such as Jens Voigt and Sandy Casar, plus Philippo Pozzato may finally give the dismal Italians something to cheer about. I’ll have minimal stakes (i.e. £2!) on each, but I think there are a couple of Brits with a sneaky chance today, if yesterday’s fine performances have not left their mark.

Reformed drug cheat, Robert Millar, has the ideal ‘game’ for a stage like this, but he was seen on the front of the chase group yesterday, working quite hard for team leader, Iban Mayo.

The other Brit rider with a squeak is half-Finnish Charlie Wegelius. He finished just 6 minutes and 44 seconds back yesterday to prove his ability to ride the big peaks, and is sufficiently distant on the ‘classement’ for the leaders not to bat an eyelid if he escapes the peloton.

His team, Liquigas, have done nothing to this point, so he may well strike for a long shot win and, at least, some publicity for the sponsors. Again, tiny stakes, but I might even get £4 on this boy.

Just a quick final point, as a result of an email from a reader yesterday. The adverts for systems on the left hand side of the page are from google. I have not chosen these (except the one for satellite tv via internet, which I think is pretty cool - its in the 3rd frame down), and I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the claims nor the integrity of the product owners.

The only products I specifically sanction are on my ‘Premium Systems’ page. As regular readers know, each of these is reviewed and graded, having been trialled here first.

Do please continue to click on the links to the left (I get a few beans from google each time you do that, and it helps to ‘keep the lights on’ for the blog), but - if you’re interested in a product, make sure you can get a refund if anything goes awry.

[Note, all products that you can buy via Clickbank automatically provide for refunds. You apply for this from Clickbank themselves, rather than the product author].

I hope that’s helpful, and good luck with your Wednesday wagers. I’ll be trying to get Robscarvic and Bucharest beaten. Feel a little twitchy about that particular eventuality…
Matt

Good morning again, dear reader, and a veritable mixed bag for you today.

First up, a quick review of yesterday. I managed to get Fourteenth beaten, which takes my own little laying system (in the latter stages of trial) to 113 losers from 139 selections (over 81% beaten).

Average winning odds around 11/4, and profit to £20 level stakes (with betfair over odds at 16% and 5% commission accounted for) is currently £478. More on this in due course.

This week’s guest system is Betting Exchange Profits and, after I poohpoohed it in my introduction, it responded in the best possible way, by thumbing its nose at me and showing a profit on the day of £218. Hmm… Let’s see how it performs today.

Finally on the laying systems front, just a quick reminder that you can still take advantage of Terry Allen’s (overly?) generous offer of his system (one winning bet from one yesterday) for free when you subscribe to his newsletter - there’s a sample copy available at

http://www.thebettinginsider.com/nnn.htm

or you can read my review of the system’s performance on the Premium Systems page from the banner at the top of this page.

(Incidentally, if you want to know about the calibre of writing in the newsletter, I should mention that I am a contributor. This may or may not influence your decision to check out the sample copy!!!!)

Onwards, and a regular reader and emailer, Keith Benson, has passed me news of a racing syndicate he has, which may be of interest to some readers.

Keith has a small stud operation based in Yorkshire, and he is affiliated with the trainer, Noel Wilson, also based at Flaxton, near York.

He currently has shares available in a smashing Captain Rio filly called Joint Agency. Interestingly, and Keith didn’t mention this, but I note she has two entries for next week (21st July), so you might be able to witness her debut as an owner!

Anyway, enough from me on this, except to say that I’ve always loved the thrill of ownership, from my early days when I was one of over 100,000 involved in the cracking Elite Racing Club partnership, to now when I am a tenth part-owner of Rapid City, a winner of three races (and placed twice more) from seven starts for us. I was also lucky enough to own a twelfth of the legendary (at least in the circles I move in!) Love’s Design, a winner of no less than seven races in our colours.

More information can be found in Keith’s newsletter, which I’ve reproduced here:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/NWRNewsletter.htm

Any questions, please contact Keith direct on the details at the bottom of the newsletter.

Despatches now complete, we move onto today’s action, and for me, I’m happy to pass on the jockeys on quadrupeds and instead focus on the jockeys on bicycles.

This year’s Tour is extremely cunning in construction as, I think for the first time ever, the average gradient of the climbs increases with each mountain stage.

So after the relative breeze of Saturday, followed by Michael Rasmussen’s statement of intent on Sunday, his excellent solo climb in many ways reminiscent of the late great Marco Pantani (another very sad loss to the sport), the action is ratcheted up a sprocket or two today.

After the rest day yesterday, there is guaranteed to be more carnage in the peloton, as the stage starts with the first Hors Categorie (’Out of Category’, which I believe I referred to as Horse Categorie in a previous post - had the nags on the brain!) of this year’s bikefest.

These are buggers, and today they start with one, and pretty much end with one. Those ‘lucky’ pedalers will have just over 40 km’s of uphill on the itinery today, and the forecast is for very hot weather.

If you have a chance to look at Eurosport today, I would encourage you to do it. There’s something slightly sadistic about viewing this kind of sporting spectacle and I find it much more to my tastes than the rather bass puerility of pugilism (apologies to boxing fans, just not typically my bag) and, possibly, more physically demanding of the combatants.

I expect the field of possible overall race winners to be much reduced after a very tough stage, but finding today’s stage winner is likely no easy task.

The reason for this is that the last 35km or so are downhill, which means that a lone breakaway rider could well open up a time gap early on and stay clear, as long as he is no threat to the overall race lead.

Rasmussen will surely not be allowed the length of leash that has made him a genuine Tour contender (though his pathetic time trialling will add a touch of reality to that claim on Saturday, in my opinion). Any move by the Great Dane will be covered by all serious aspirants for this year’s maillot jaune, so long as they can stay with him.

Interestingly, the stage route today meanders (if that’s the right term for a road that straddles three very large Alps!) along the French-Italian border, and this may be a day when a strong Italian climber who is no threat to the overall classification strikes a bid for glory.

There are a few contenders: Cristian Moreni, Dario Cioni, and Alessandro Ballan are all triple figure odds and, of the trio, perhaps Ballan (160 on betfair at time of writing), the winner of the Trois Jours De La Panne and the Tour of Flanders this year, can embellish his impressive portfolio still further.

All of the big boys are atop the stage market, but I reckon a rider like Ballan - who is more than half an hour behind on the general classification - may get clear. Forza Azzurri! (as they say, down my way…)

It is interesting to note how many strong riders from Spain there are this year and, while I reckon most will be saving themselves for a bid nearer the Basque territory in the Pyrenees, the 11/8 offered by Sportingodds for a Spanish rider to win the stage is a little tempting (if also a little short in what can be something of an ‘educated crapshoot’).

Savour today’s stage if you have a chance - Eurosport have put together a real A Team, with the best presenter in TV sport, James Richardson, joined by 1987 Tour winner Sean Roche (if anyone knows how these boys are feeling, he does), and the legendary and fabulously eccentric ‘Duffers’ (David Duffield).

There is real banter in the studio and real drama on the roads, so today promises to be a very entertaining afternoon in front of the gogglebox. Bring it on!!

More later…
Matt

Well, I had a bad feeling and, after the first qualifying horse I chose failed to do what was required, I had an even worse feeling…

But I don’t give up that easily. So I started another cycle, and… it collected!

After losing my first notional £100 on Rose N Alice, the below is what happened next:

So, on the day, I’d wagered a notional £200, and returned £418.87 after commissions, for a profit of £218.87.

Resisting the temptation to continue the run looks likely to be a challenge with this system but, when it’s pretend money at least, I’m happy to cut and run at this point.

I’m not quite ready yet for the consumption of humble pie, but first blood goes to the system.

Tune in tomorrow to see what happens next…!

Matt

Good morning dear reader, and I trust these words find you refreshed and invigorated after the weekend.

As regular readers will know, one of the objectives of this site is to honestly and fairly appraise horse racing systems in ‘real time’, i.e. I put up the selections ahead of racing, and we see how they go.

I’ve pretty much only reviewed lay systems to date, which have mostly done well (I guess its far easier to pick losers than winners - in the short term at least). If you’ve missed any of those reviews, you can see them at:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/premiumsystems.html

I’ve also included a few pointers there about what they are, who they’re primarily pitched at, and whether in my opinion they offer value for money.

Today, I’m going to start a week long trial of a system called ‘Betting Exchange Profits’. It’s not a particularly new system to the market, but it has been extensively promoted on google, and I am interested to see if the reality matches the promotion hype.

The sales blurb says Jason Chesters (the author) now works one hour a day and makes £1000 a week. Well, if that’s true, I want a slice of it!

So what is Betting Exchange Profits (BEP), and how does it work? BEP is a 66 page ebook, which outlines the system and then goes into detail with examples of how it works.

I should say that, without wishing to prejudge its performance, I found a number of things not to my liking in the guide, as follows:

- I don’t agree with Jason’s contention that racing is fixed (except in a miniscule subset of races. This belief is peddled by losers looking for a scapegoat, rather than looking at their own betting habits).

- Fundamentally, the method and examples do not account for betting commission on winning trades. This difference of 5% per trade is especially important with an approach such as the one mooted here, where winnings from one trade are rolled onto a series of further trades.

- In the examples, Jason breaks a number of his own rules, such as price thresholds. This implies that the ’system’ is interpretable. I never like systems that are not absolute and categorical in their ruleset.

- The obvious system bet was discounted in one race in favour of another - less obvious - qualifier. The obvious horse lost and the other won.

- In suggesting the system will also work on sports, notably football, Jason suggests that you can use it blindly backing short favourites. For me, this will guarantee a trip to the poor house.

So… I am pessimistic about the chances of this guide, but nevertheless I will give it a chance.

The nature of it is that I won’t be able to put the selections up in real time, because I need to monitor the pre-race market in the ten minutes leading up to the races. But here’s what I’m trying to do:

I’m looking for a series of five or six horses, which the author calls a ‘cycle’, and the cycle is one part of a set. So, basically, today will be one cycle of five days (and therefore five cycles) this week. The full five cycles will be a set.

Based on the odds of the horses in the races, and their fluctuations prior to the races, I will either back or lay outright or for a place. I will only select one horse per race, and I am trying to get five winners (be they place lays, win only, or any of the other combinations).

I will start with a notional £100 and try to increase it through the five races in my cycle. If I achieve this, I will stop and take my profit.

The theory is that one winner in the set (i.e. the series of cycles this week) will pay for losing days. So, I’m certainly not expecting every day to be a winning day, and indeed I wonder if we will have any winning days.

Jason reckons that in a seven day set, if you’re looking to get six in a row for a cycle, you should be able to consistently get two a week up. On that basis, between now and Friday I’m expecting at least one winning day in my quest for five up.

We’ll see…

I’ll post the results of Day One later this afternoon, as the cycle will be complete by around 3.30pm.

Nothing to get too excited about today at the races, though on the laying front I’ll probably take on Sir Michael Stoute’s unexposed Fourteenth at Windsor this evening. At 13/8 or thereabouts, he looks plenty short enough, based on achievement to date. There is likely more to come, but I reckon there are other improvers in here too, so will take my chance.

Good luck, and check back later for the results of day one with Betting Exchange Profits.
Matt

As promised, dear reader, here is a quick precis of my trip to Las Vegas. This is also my 100th post to the blog, so I’m a member of the Centurion Club. There will of course be many many more to come, so thanks for your support and do keep reading!

To Vegas, and it started with someone else’s bad fortune being my good fortune. At the same time that my good friend, Gavin, was winning a satellite tournament (beating 1,900 other players) to qualify for a seat at the World Series of Poker (WSoP), so his girlfriend was learning of a death in the family.

By winning the tournament, hosted by pokerstars, Gavin also qualified for $2,000 in expenses. Naturally, he would have been escorted by Sam, his girl, under normal circumstances. But, unsurprisingly, Sam didn’t feel like travelling. She did however insist that Gavin travel and compete, and suggested he ask me to accompany him.

Of course, I was happy to step in despite the delicate nature of the situation.

So, last Thursday, we set off from Manchester direct to Las Vegas. bmi are aggressively targeting many of the same routes as Virgin, but from their Northern base and, on the evidence of the Vegas flights, they are a serious competitor. Beating Virgin on price by over 20%, and offering an excellent cabin service, the 10.5 hour journey passed quickly. Especially so as I managed to whack Gavin at Scrabble: beat him by 175 points at 20 cents a point!

(In fairness to Gavin, I should record that he did stop me breaking 500 for the first time in my life by getting out the turn before I could, and also won the series 3-2, though lost about 20 dollars in the final reckoning…)

We arrived early afternoon on the Thursday, and - after showering and shaving - it was time to test the tables. No early luck for Gavin, but I managed to get my first Pick 3 of the week up.

For those who don’t know, a Pick 3 is like a mini-jackpot bet, where you have to correctly select the winners of three consecutive races. As it’s a pool bet, the idea is that if you find one or more lively outsiders to prevail, you can collect a decent pot. My win was just over $300, which was to pay for a subset of my subsequent losers!

Later that evening, there was a major incident in the hotel we were staying in (New York New York), when a guy walked in and opened fire with a gun. He shot four people before he was taken down.

http://travel.latimes.com/articles/la-trw-vegasshooting6jul06

I’m happy to report that we had both long since retired for the evening at the time of the disturbance and awoke to watch the story on the local news. A rare incident but nevertheless the type of thing that can very easily happen in a nation that insists on continuing with its archaic ‘Constitutional Right to bear arms’ while not allowing its patrons to bet freely in any state.

Bizarre and indicative of the preposterous hypocrisies that are rife Stateside. As much as I love travelling there, I find some of their laws outright unfathomable.

You can own a gun without a license, but you can’t place $20 on a horse, unless you live in State A, B or C. Crazy. Rant over.

The tournament format for the WSoP was that it would be played over four days. Day One would actually take place over four separate days, 1A, 1B, 1C and - you guessed it - 1D. This was because there were 7,000-odd competitors, all pitching up with the $10,000 entry fee.

Gavin was to play on the first of the four days, and did well. Despite having next to no decent cards, he managed to guard his chips sufficiently well to get through the day with slightly more than he started.

Poker legends Doyle Brunson, Amarillo Slim and a number of other past winners and poker Hall of Famers failed to clear the first hurdle, testament to the strength and depth of the assembled players.

Mike Sexton, poker star, is to the left of the dealer here. Behind him and to the left in blue shirt and baseball cap is our local hero, Gavin.

Gavin’s poker playing day began at around midday and ended just after 4am the following morning. These games run and run!

Having played Friday, and with the other three day ones to follow, Gavin was not due back at the table until Tuesday, the day I flew back (not that I didn’t have any faith in my man’s ability to progress in the tournament or anything…!)

By that Tuesday, the initial 7,000 had been whittled down to just under 2,000, and the battle resumed in earnest. With the blinds and ante’s rising steeply now, every player had to be more aggressive and those who found themselves short stacked would succumb to the ‘death or glory’ of the ‘All In’ call.

As with many before and since, this was the fate of Gavin. Holding Ace Ten, he went all in and was called by the - at the time - chip leader. ‘Bigchips’ had been wantonly bluffing and scaring people off with his ample stack (as it were) most of the day to this point, and had rarely had anything to show when push came to shove after the river.

Just Gavin’s luck then, when he turned over Ace Queen, and won the hand. Gavin had played very well, and done brilliantly to progress to the second stage of the world’s most presitigious poker tournament but, alas, the gods were not smiling on his gnomic features this time.

The temperatures in Las Vegas were 47C all week, and it was all a struggle when out of the cooling embrace of an air conditioning unit, but I rekindled my lost love for the city whilst out there, and had an absolute ball.

For those of you that are interested (and I will not be offended if there are none!), I’ve posted a few other photos on the site, and you can see them by clicking the links below…

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007041.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007042.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007043.jpg

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http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007045.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007046.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007047.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007048.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007049.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007050.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007051.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007052.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007053.jpg

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007054.jpg

Viva Las Vegas indeed. Which reminds me, I’m thinking of opening a strip joint on the Strip, and calling it Beaver Las Vegas! (I’m not really, I just wanted to gratuitously get that line into this post!!!)

Til 101, roger and out.
Matt

Saturday is upon us dear reader and, as such, most of us are free from those nasty Monday through Friday shackles, and can kick back and enjoy the weekend.

Spare a thought then for the poor boogers who will be toiling desperately over the next two days in searing heat, chasing each other up Alp and down dale.

But spare that thought in the knowledge that this is one of the great sporting spectacles in the calendar and, for me at least, an event not to be missed.

The festival of pain is further heightened today by the fact that it is Bastille Day in France, one of their most significant holidays.

After Friday’s frog fun, it would be no surprise if the amphibian theme was maintained into today, with a ‘grenouille’ victory at Le Grand-Bornand (for it is there, at the base of the 1613 metre Col de la Columbiere mountain that today’s stage will end).

I fancy a French winner today, and already you can have 5/2 about that, which I’ve availed myself of.

But who specifically? Well, my money is nailed to the tricolore of one man in particular: Christophe Moreau. The French have a proud tradition in the King of the Mountains competition with Richard Virenque a national icon despite his career being tainted with the almost ubiquitous drug smear.

Moreau was the closest challenger to last year’s KotM winner, Michael Rasmussen, and will be keen to assert some pressure on the Dane on this first big day for the climbers.

At 10/1, he looks cracking value and is added to my Frenchie to win the stage wager.

To complete the punting today, I’ll chuck in Rasmussen himself for a top three finish. With serious points up for grabs today, he’ll not be far from the action, and - even if there is a breakaway - that still gives us a chance of collecting on the great Dane. At 13/2, he looks cracking top 3 value.

The race is replete with its usual intrigue after Thursday’s crashes and injuries to the ante post favourite and second choices, Vinokourov and Kloden. Both are doubtful and may or may not start today. Vino has stitches in a knee wound and ‘Klodie’ has aggravated an old coccyx injury, with a hairline fracture.

I’ve strengthened my overall position on Cadel Evans, by backing him to win, be in the first 3, and the first 6. I can’t have Valverde and the top two are doubtful. This renders the race wide open.

I’ve also had a little tickle on an up and comer, Alberto Contador. To be honest, I don’t know too much about him, but the right dogs are barking in his favour, and the race will take marginally less winning than normal, so on that basis he makes the portfolio.

I was delighted to see the 3yo’s inject some fresh interest in the sprinting ranks yesterday, with Sakhee’s Secret answering all my questions about class, and Dutch Art following him home. It’s been a frustrating week at Newmarket for me, having tried to beat both SS and WW (Winker Watson).

Throw in the fact that Boonen won the Tour stage yesterday when I tried to get him beaten, and a few too many jollies have hit the board for my liking!

Nevertheless, I’ve been peppering the target if not quite hitting the bullseye, so confidence remains high.

And, after the carnage of Thursday, I managed four lays from four yesterday, including Alambic (laid at 8/11, returned evens).

For a great free laying service, see Thursday’s post here:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2007/07/review-of-easy-money-laying-system-plus.html

Good luck with your weekend wagers and, just for once, Allez La France!

Matt

What the frog is going on here? Check out this frogumentary…

The book’s due out soon. It’s good, trust me. I’ve reddit… (geddit?!)

[No frogs were harmed in the shooting of this film]

Matt

Not just the name of a mediocre racehorse, dear reader, but also the fear of the number 13. From the Greek, Tris = three, kai = and, deka = ten, according to Wikipedia. And today is Friday as well, to compound the concerns of the more superstitious in our fine community.

Well, for me, it was very much a case of duokaidekaphobia, as Thursday 12th provided one of my most memorable blowout days ever, in a betting context at least.

My lays won (and how! 4/6, 11/8, 7/2 and - wait for it - 6/1!) to undo about a month’s good work with a new system I’m playing with. My back selections are still running (one was reported missing late last night - last seen a furlong adrift somewhere on Newmarket Heath…).

I thought I’d caught a cracker with Philippe Gilbert in the Tour when he was the most aggressive man in a three rider breakaway. But, after 120 km’s away from the peloton, the plucky trio were engulfed with just six miles to race.

So it was a case of Philippe f-lop (geddit?!).

No matter, for today is another day. I am reminded of one of my favourite racing maxims, and one which I would strongly advise all of you to consider:

After a good run, expect a bad run. After a bad run, expect a good run.

This is the unequivocal law of our game, and it serves me well in times of need. Like today, having done my poke yesterday!

Of course, my bad luck cycle may not be quite through, but I was born an optimist and I will die one, so onwards and downwards it must be.

July Cup is the big race of the day, and much discussion is centred on the 3yo Sakhee’s Secret. The boy has been massively impressive in Listed class, but it’s one hell of a step up in grade, straight into a Group 1.

I’ve been reading a book about class, that most ethereal of traits (in both humans and horseflesh), so it was interesting to read James Willoughby’s piece in the Racing Post today about class and how it affects racehorses.

Willoughby notes that, although the final time of today’s race may be akin to the times that SS has already been running, he is likely to encounter much faster early fractions than he ever has before. Quite simply, he could be spent before halfway.

There is much credence in this. Furthermore, as Dr James Quinn, the leading US author on class, asserts, class can also be measured in a horse’s ability to withstand challenges. SS has yet to have to hang tough under duress in his classic season and, as a 2yo, in the two of his three races when he was challenged, he folded tamely (he won the other race by six lengths!).

On balance, though I think he is a very (very!) fast horse, I am against SS, as I just think he will be outclassed today. He won’t be able to dominate these in the way he has other fields, and he may well be on the retreat before halfway, having struggled with the early fractions.

Against him, I am a big fan of the fastest cripple on four legs, Soldier’s Tale. Whether his fragile frame will stand up on the faster grass of the Heath remains to be seen, but I’ll have a small win bet at the available 12/1 in case.

I’ll strengthen my hand with a horse placed in the 2,000 Guineas and now dropping back to a trip he looks suited to, Dutch Art. Lots of non-staying milers have found their metier when dropped to sprint trips, and this horse definitely oozes the class which Sakhee’s Secret has yet to prove. While 5/1 is not a sexy price, it is a fair one, and the Chapple-Hyam yard could hardly be in better form.

If SS wins, I will be the first to salute a potential new champ; if the Soldier battles home in front, I’ll be delighted for the old knacker; if Dutch Art wins, I will feel vindicated that at least fresh blood is appearing in a frankly below class division of British racing (the sprinters).

If something else wins, I’ll not be surprised, but I will be a little disappointed (and a few quid still poorer).

A lay for the day, and my system yet again throws up one of my favourite trainers. This time it tells me that Alambic cannot win, even though Sir Mark Prescott forgets more about racing on a daily basis than I will ever know. Let’s hope this time he’s placed his nag inappropriately. It doesn’t happen very often, for sure.

By the way, talking of lays, if you missed yesterday’s post, have a look at the review of the ‘Easy Money Laying’ system, and learn how you can get it for free. (Of course, there’s a small condition, but - trust me - it’s a favourable one).

Check it out here: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html and look for Thursday’s post.

Onto the Tour, and today is very much the calm before the storm. From tomorrow, the riders are faced with the literal highs and lows of the Alps. This is a part of the race where riders are - in some cases, sadly, literally - killing themselves to get home in front. (Tom Simpson, the British rider, collapsed and died on Mont Ventoux forty years ago. Others have tragically passed the same way since, notably the Italian Fabio Casartelli, descending in the Pyrenees).

So, today will be an edgy day, with the big riders wanting to conserve their energies for what is to come (especially Vinokourov who crashed yesterday and lost big time on his rivals - he will be fun to watch over the weekend), and with sprinters wanting one last hurrah before many of them cry enough, not able to go the ominous metre of the peloton as it wends itself inexorably upward.

If you take the view that it will be a sprint finish, as I do, then there are only a handful of riders who can realistically win.

Tom Boonen is a perennial challenger and multiple sprint stage winner, but he banged his arm a few days back, and has been off the pace since. While it wouldn’t surprise me if he resurged, I will look elsewhere.

I am a huge fan of the Norwegian monster, Thor Hushovd. The man’s a genetic freak and frankly scares the 5h1t out of me. But boy can he ride! He’s a 10.5/1 shot in betfair’s book and I’ll have some of that.

The other really obvious candidate is Robbie McEwan. At 4/1, he’s not exactly great value but he will likely be only a wheel away from first place, if he doesn’t prevail. I’ll reluctantly swerve him in the quest for a bit of value.

Finally, at a surprisingly large price for a new kid on the block, Gert Steegmans can be backed at 85. He’s already won a sprint stage, beating Boonen in Belgium, and he can give us a bit of fun at a massive price.

As I’m writing this, I see that Bradley Wiggins, the British rider has made a lone break. He is currently 5′40″ up on the peloton, but this is surely a move to get his sponsor some publicity. I’d be astonished (and absolutely delighted) if he could maintain his prominence to stage end, but nevertheless ‘Go Brad!!’.