The secret of great comedy, as you may know dear reader, is….. *checks watch, and counts to fifteen*…. timing.

As is the secret to launching a great product.

In the micro-economy of the past two days, the laying system has had the proverbial stinker. No matter, for bloodied but not unbowed, we continue: the mission now is to climb the (small category 4) hill back to level stakes, then push on.

Ainama hacked up today, making two big priced winning (and therefore losing) lays in two days.

The nature of any approach is that it will have good and bad turns. As long as the rationale is solid, the method will out.

In this case, I’m conscious that the method is somewhat translucent to you currently, so over the course of the next few days, I’m going to share with you the key elements that I look for in a (hopefully) losing horse.

Its no secret that I look to lay Racing Post favourites. A glance at the history of the qualifiers will show you that.

But there are a number of other factors which inform my decisions: primarily, pace, speed and class.

Now you may or may not know what these mean, and you cannot know what they mean specifically in the context of my interpretation.

But, starting later today, you’ll get an inkling into my thoughts and then, irrespective of the results in the short term, I hope that you’ll appreciate the consideration that frames the choices.

Enough already, and on with the show… tomorrow, I’ll introduce my overall mindset, which is to try to find a different approach than the traditional ‘pounds and lengths’ scales of collateral form study which, frankly, I’ve always found at best ethereal (and at worst, downright misleading).

Then, on Thursday, I’ll touch on why I think traditional British form study is due for retirement (in the main), before continuing next week with a look at the triumvirate of ‘newfangled’ tools: pace, class and speed. (Actually, as some / many of you will know, they’re not new at all, and have been evolving nicely for decades Stateside without really taking off in a major way here… yet!)

More later.
Matt

Well, dear reader, it seems I was foolish and premature (not the first time I’ve been either of those two things!) in writing off the inimitable Kazakh, Alexandre Vinokourov.

After smashing the field to pieces on Saturday in the ‘contre le montre’, he wilted like a badly wilting wilty thing on Sunday in the Pyrenees.

But the man with more stitches in his knees than I have in my jimjams made a superlative comeback of Lazarus proportions yesterday, again riding away from the field, and descending down a mountain path at 60mph to score his second stage victory of the race.

Having lost about half an hour on Sunday, he is now no threat to the overall lead in the race and, with a rest day today, it’s far from impossible that he could win the last mountain stage tomorrow. Certainly, the main players for the overall title will not chase him, and none of the other riders can live with him in the form he showed yesterday.

Furthermore, on Saturday, there is the second and final time trial, for which he must again be favourite.

And, as if four possible stage wins wasn’t enough, he has previously won the final stage on the Champs Elysee, an event traditionally collared by a sprinter.

What a bizarre situation it would be if a rider won five stages of the Tour, and yet still didn’t finish in the top 20 overall!

I have nothing but admiration for this guy, for the way he has refused to give up, and has fought on with honour and humility. He is the ultimate sportsman for me right now. ‘Chapeau’, as they say in France. (Or ‘hats off’, as we might say).

Onto racing, and wouldn’t you just know it… As I launch the trial of my laying system, so we get smacked in the chops with an 11/2 winner. No matter, a few points loss on the day, but the overall pattern is positive, and let’s see where we are come the end of the week.

Today’s lays are:

(Incidentally, Tonnante was one of my alternative ten to follow for the season, so I have mixed feelings about that one! You can read about the other mutts I tipped up here.)

On the punting front, Neil Callan did indeed plough Beverley’s near side rail yesterday as hoped (and many others followed him), and he prevailed by a comfortable margin for a nice 10/3 winner for me and TrainerFlatStats punters too.

Over at Windsor, my bet of the day - Marozi - fared less well, coming in a well outpointed 4th. He travelled like a winner until the business end of the race, but found nought. Disappointing, and I suspect he may be a much better horse on sand. It wouldn’t surprise me to see this one race in the States before the season is out. He’s certainly bred for it.

I can’t find anything worth backing today, so - like my friends at the Tour - I shall have a rest day. It’s high time I did some work!

Pip pip!
Matt