Today’s final cycle in the six cycle set for Betex Profits (remember, I had two goes on Monday) has yet again taken its muddy knees to the early bath, this time on the second leg of five.

Below I’ve repeated much of my preview from the start of the week, but now of course it is updated with this week’s experiences.

“The sales blurb says Jason Chesters (the author) now works one hour a day and makes £1000 a week. Well, if that was to be true, I wanted a slice of it! Alas, for all the hype, this pudding failed to rise. Indeed, I suspect the pudding mix was bereft of yeast… metaphorically speaking of course.

So what is Betting Exchange Profits (BEP), and how does it work? BEP is a 66 page ebook, which outlines the system and then goes into detail with examples of how it works.

I can now say with a degree of certainty that the things I found not to my liking in the guide are just plain wrong, as follows:

- I don’t agree with Jason’s contention that racing is fixed (except in a miniscule subset of races. This belief is peddled by losers looking for a scapegoat, rather than looking at their own betting habits).

- Crucially, the method and examples do not account for betting commission on winning trades. This difference of 5% per trade is especially important with an approach such as the one mooted here, where winnings from one trade are rolled onto a series of further trades.

- In the examples, Jason breaks a number of his own rules, such as price thresholds. This implies that the ’system’ is interpretable. I never like systems that are not absolute and categorical in their ruleset.

- The obvious system bet was discounted in one race in favour of another - less obvious - qualifier. The obvious horse lost and the other won.

- In suggesting the system will also work on sports, notably football, Jason suggests that you can use it blindly backing short favourites. For me, this will guarantee a trip to the poor house.

So… I was rightly pessimistic about the chances of this guide.

The nature of the system is that you need to monitor the pre-race market in the ten minutes leading up to the races to identify strong trends either for or against a given horse.

If you remember, I was looking for a series of five or six horses, which the author calls a ‘cycle’, and the cycle is one part of a set. So, basically, each day is one cycle of five (or seven if you work weekends) days (and therefore five cycles) in a week. The full five or seven cycles will be a set.

Based on the odds of the horses in the races, and their fluctuations prior to the races, you are urged to either back or lay outright or for a place. You should only select one horse per race, and you are trying to get five or six winners in a row (be they place lays, win only, or any of the other combinations).

I started with a notional £100 for each cycle and tried to increase it through the five races in the cycle. If I achieved this, I would stop and take my profit.

The theory is that one winner in the set (i.e. the series of cycles this week) will pay for losing days. So, I’m certainly not expecting every day to be a winning day, and indeed I wondered if we would have any winning days.

Jason reckons that in a seven day set, if you’re looking to get six in a row for a cycle, you should be able to consistently get two a week up. On that basis, between now and Friday I’m expecting at least one winning day in my quest for five up.

As it turned out, the first day saw me blow out on the first race. Whilst the system doesn’t say you should do this, I went straight back in again, and lo and behold, but if it didn’t deliver a winning cycle.

So Monday went -£100, then +£318.87, for a profit of £218.87.
Tuesday, went down on the 3rd leg of 5.
Wednesday, down on the 1st leg of 5.
Thursday, down on the second leg of 5.
And today, after Aaron’s Way finished third after I’d laid it for a place, the system went down on the 2nd leg.

Total loss on the week is a notional £181.13.

Indeed, were it not for me breaching the system rules myself and ‘going back to the well’ on Monday, it would have been a -£500 week.

This system is framed exclusively around the market and, as such, is way too simplistic in my opinion to be successful in the long term.

I didn’t like the writer’s style, I don’t like the system content, and I give this system a ‘Not Recommended’ mark.

Next week, we’ll be looking at another laying product for mostly short priced horses, this time a tipster service, rather than a system.

Now onto Friday Fun… and, as promised, a touch of Spike Milligan. It’s quite silly stuff and maybe not for everyone, but researching this has brought a smile to my fevered features today, so please bear with me if its not your bagatelle…

From Spike’s War Memoirs: Diary: Feb 28

Torrential rain. Trench flooded.

Contacted Gun Position.
MILLIGAN: Hello! Tell Sergeant Dawson I need a relief.
GUN POSITION: Who do you want?
M: Paulette Goddard
GP: What will be her duties?
M: Me.

The rain. Not only did it come down, it went up 6 feet, and then came down a second time.

“It’s good for the crops”, said MacArthur.
“I haven’t got any”, I said.
“I have. I’ve got a hundred acres in Somerset and three hundred in Canada”.
“It’s not raining there.”
“I know”, he said, pacing up and down. “And its very very worrying…”

Goblins, 1978

I’m a Goblin Tommy Cooper,
I can do tricks with a hat,
I can walk upside down with a barrow
So they’ve made me a Water Rat.

I can juggle with seventy skittles
Dive through a rubber tyre
I can sleep on the bottom of the Channel,
Did somebody call me a liar?

I’m a Goblin Tommy Cooper,
I fly round the room on a mat,
You ask me how I do it,
I’ll tell you, “Just like that”.

Soldier, Soldier 1987

There was a little soldier
Who went off to the war
To serve the King,
Which is the thing
That soldiers are made for.

But then that little soldier
Was blown to bits, was he.
All for his King
He did this thing:
How silly can you be?

Contagion: 1959

Elephants are contagious!
Be careful how you tread.
An elephant that’s been trodden on
Should be confined to bed!

Leopards are contagious too.
Be careful tiny tots.
They don’t give you a temperature
But lots and lots - of spots.

The Herring is a lucky fish,
From all disease inured.
Should he be ill when caught at sea:
Immediately - he’s cured!

Off back to my bed now, with a small grin on my face

Matt

So it’s Friday, and the weekend is once more upon us. Thoughts turn to lie ins, bacon, newspapers, and hours of TV sport… But I’m cooped up in my bed.

I had a headache most of yesterday, and the three ‘medicinal’ Guinnesses I had last evening didn’t alleviate the problem, nor has a good kip. So its official - I’ve got a lurgy.

At least there’s plenty to watch on the telly (right now, for instance, I’m ‘enjoying’ Sergio self destruct in his second round at the Open).

As for the horses, based on the weather outside here (p1551ng down), I’d expect Newbury to be abandoned.

Over at Nottingham, there’s not much to get inspired by, so I’ll take that theme and work it by having a look at the 3.20, a 15 runner seller(!).

Maybe its the bugs, maybe its the drugs, but I reckon there are a couple of 50/1 shots in here that are not without a chance.

In a race where few have ever won, still less having won on turf, Prince du Soleil would be an ironic winner in this weather. This horse actually won at Saint-Cloud and Maisons-Lafitte for Pascal Bary back in the last century, but has been regressive since, and hasn’t even run for two years.

However, he loves the mud and - in fairness - there aren’t too many poorer races around than this. For minimal units, he might give us a fun run.

I can’t have the favourite, Ruby Legend, as I don’t think he’ll go in the ground. That said, he’s got Spencer in the plate, and it’s not impossible he’ll win despite hating the underfoot.

My other rag for the race is Travelling Band. Another who hasn’t seen a racetrack for ages (this time 426 days), he won a nice Haydock novice hurdle in 2003 on soft going, and is worth a tiny tickle against a shocking bunch of donkeys.

What the BHB are doing serving up this kind of dirge on a Friday at a reasonably high class track is beyond me. But there we are.

Of the (relatively) unexposed ones in the race, Snake Hips ran his best race on soft two starts back, and should be competitive here.

I don’t have any strong lay fancies, though my system has thrown up a few which are too big for me to oppose: Red Chairman, Hazelnut, and the aforementioned Ruby Legend, as well as Circle of Love at Newbury, should it get the thumbs up.

Over at the Tour, and a strange stage yesterday: what should have been a relatively easy day was made an end to end gallop by the Astana team (that of Messrs Vinokourov and Kloden) assuming control at the front of the peloton and putting the hammer down.

The tactic is, I reckon, designed to empty the legs of some of Vino and Klodie’s rivals ahead of the first time trial tomorrow. Its an interesting strategy, and one that might just work. Certainly, Christophe Moreau, the big French hope was dropped yesterday and waved his ‘maillot jaune reve’ (yellow jersey dream, for the non-Francophiles) goodbye.

I wonder if they’ll continue with the high tempo today… Stage 12, for that’s how far we’ve come, is not that simple, containing as it does three Category 4 climbs and - near the finish - a Category 2 hillock.

I reckon that again the usual three must be followed: Voigt, Gilbert and Casar, but I also wouldn’t rule out a sprint finish, in which case I’ll side with Hushovd and Pozzato. I’ve lost all confidence in my ability to pick stage winners, so between the five of these guys, I’ll risk all of ten pounds..!

Finally, I’ll be putting Betting Exchange Profits through its paces for the last time, and reporting on its overall performace later. I’ll also bring you some Friday Fun, from the late great Spike Milligan, so stay tuned!

Matt